AREP GURME Section 2 Executive Overview. AREP GURME 2 Section 2 – Executive Overview Topics Why forecast air quality? What is needed? About the course.

AREPGURME

Section 2Executive Overview

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AREPGURME

Section 2 – Executive Overview

Topics

Why forecast air quality?

What is needed?

About the course

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Section 2 – Executive Overview

Why forecast air quality?

Pollutants originate from• Combustion of fossil fuels and organic

matter

• Evaporation of petroleum products or compounds used in commercial products, services, and manufacturing

• Natural production of smoke from fires, dust from strong winds, and emissions from the biosphere and geosphere

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Section 2 – Executive Overview

Why forecast air quality?

World Health Organization: Every year 1.5 billion urbanites breathe air that

exceeds WHO standards; Well over 800,000 deaths each year due to urban air

pollution;

Costs: World health costs of urban air pollution are

estimated to approach US$1 billion per year. In developing countries the health effects of air

pollution cost between 5% - 20% of GDP.

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Section 2 – Executive Overview

Why forecast air quality?

Pollutants of concern

SO2Sulfur Dioxide

PMParticulate Matter

HCHydrocarbon Compounds

NO2Nitrogen Dioxide

O3Ozone

COCarbon Monoxide

AbbreviationPollutant

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Section 2 – Executive Overview

Schwartz et al., 1992

Why forecast air quality?

Health Effects: Deaths associated with PM concentrations

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Section 2 – Executive Overview

Why forecast air quality?

Health Effects: Geneva Steel Mill: The Utah Valley

Iron 107.2 50.2 117.8Copper 163.3 50.5 327.0Zinc 264.8 95.5 113.2Lead 91.7 30.5 122.2Nickel 18.6 26.9 18.6

Concentration(g/g)

Jan-Mar 1986(open)

Jan-Mar 1987(closed)

Jan-Mar 1988(open)

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Section 2 – Executive Overview

Health Effects: Particulate Matter concentrations Health: Monthly asthma admissions

Why forecast air quality?

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

1985 1986 1987 1988

Steel Mill Closed

PM

(g

/m3 )

0

20

40

60

80

1985 1986 1987 1988

Mo

nth

ly A

sth

ma

Ad

mis

sio

ns

Steel Mill Closed

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Section 2 – Executive Overview

Why forecast air quality?

How are forecasts used: Protect public health

Operate emissions reduction programs

Conduct special monitoring

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Section 2 – Executive Overview

Age of Forecasting Program (years)

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10+

• Limited data

• Limited experience and understanding

• One forecasting tool/technique

• Modest accuracy

• Good historical data set

• Good understanding

• Modest experience

• Several forecasting tools/techniques

• Higher accuracy

• Excellent historical data set

• Detailed understanding

• Extensive experience

• Many forecasting tools/techniques

• Highest accuracy

Evolution of a Forecasting Program

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Section 2 – Executive Overview

What is needed?

1. Air quality problem Most large & mega cities have air

pollution

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Section 2 – Executive Overview

What is needed?

2. Air quality monitoring program Monitor network Historical data Real-time monitoring system

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Section 2 – Executive Overview

What is needed?

3. Understanding the interactions•Determine how meteorological

processes influence air pollution in an area

• Forecast the processes that affect air quality, then predict the air quality

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Section 2 – Executive Overview

What is needed?

4. Develop forecasting methods• Simple to complex

• Statistical, numerical models, experience

•More tools = more accurate forecast

Ozone (Low–High)

Moderate toHigh

Moderate toLow

Temp lowTemp high

WS - strong

Moderate Moderate

High LowWS - calm

WS - calmWS -light

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Section 2 – Executive Overview

What is needed?

5. Developing a program

Need for an AQ Forecast

Developa Program

Operatethe Program

Revisethe Program

DataCollection

ForecastPreparation

ForecastCommunication

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Section 2 – Executive Overview

Overview of CourseCourse Content: Background

• Introduction and Overview of Course• What Are We Forecasting?• How Are Forecasts Used?• Health Effects

Understanding• Chemical Aspects of Air Pollution• Pollutant Monitoring• Pollutant Lifecycles and Trends• Air Pollution Meteorology• Case Studies of Episodes

Developing a program• Air Quality Forecasting Tools • Developing a Forecasting Program• Daily Air Quality Forecast Operations