Anthony Hobley at Sitra on 21 May 2014: Carbon Risks for Investors

Anthony Hobley

Chief Executive Officer

Helsinki, 20th May 2014

Financial experts making carbon investment risk

visible today in the capital market.

Anthony Hobley - Chief Executive Officer

Mark Campanale - Founder and Executive Director

Jon Grayson - Chief Operating Officer

James Leaton - Research Director

Luke Sussams - Senior Researcher

Reid Capalino - Senior Researcher

John Wunderlin - Staff Attorney US

Margherita Gagliardi - Communications Officer

Tracy Trainor - Office Manager

Jeremy Leggett - Chair, Board of Directors

Mark Campanale - Deputy Chairman

Anthony Hobley - Executive Director

Alice Chapple - Non Executive Director

Cary Krosinsky - Non Executive Director

Who we are

Our funders

Our formula

...by translating climate science and policy

into the language of finance.

Our work is aimed to align climate risk

with capital market risk...

What we do

Our research has created a new debate around

climate change and investment.

Our stakeholders

Our research path

We are not about divestment

…an easy and powerful bit of arithmetical analysis first published by financial analysts in the U.K. has been making the rounds… (it) up-ends most of the conventional political thinking about climate change. And it allows us to understand our precarious position with…. simple numbers”. Bill McKibben, Co-founder of 350.org

We are about responsible

risk management

This report shows very clearly the gross inconsistency between current valuations of fossil fuel assets and the path governments have committed to take in order to manage the huge risks of climate change. Prof. Lord Stern of Brentford Chair, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, LSE

Carbon budget deficit for listed companies

Current listed reserves (762

GtCO2)

far exceed a quarter of

the carbon budgets

but could double (1541 GtCO2)

If we break the 2°C budget we

very quickly hit 2.5°C and 3°C

Current reserves on stock exchanges (2013)

Potential reserves on stock exchanges (2013)

Rebalancing is needed between flows.

Carbon Supply Cost Curves. First Report on Oil (2014)

Carbon supply and oil production by

global producer category (2014-2050)

Stress-testing the logic of rising

upstream oil capital expenditure

Carbon Supply Cost Curves: Oil

Carbon and oil production

by producer by BEOP: 2014-2050

Private conventional: Total carbon & oil

production (MBPD average) by BEOP 2014-2050

Private unconventional: Total carbon & oil

production (MBPD average) by BEOP 2014-2050

Conventional: CAPEX $ by BEOP (2014 to 2050)

Unconventional: CAPEX $ by BEOP (2014 to 2050)

Key locations by CAPEX (2014 to 2025)

and carbon production (2014 to 2050)

Map of oil provinces with high cost

potential production

Mark Fulton, ex DB Head of Research,

presents the key findings

Recommendations for Investors

Anthony Hobley

Chief Executive Officer

ahobley@carbontracker.org