Annual General Meeting 2016 - Repsol...20th May Annual General Meeting 2016 Environment and Outlook 2015 Milestones and Results Proposals for the Annual General Meeting Annual General
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20th May
Annual General Meeting 2016
Environment and Outlook
2015 Milestones and Results
Proposals for the Annual General Meeting
Annual General Meeting 2016: Contents
Environment and
Outlook
20
40
60
80
100
120
2014 2015 2016
2014 average
98.9
1Q 2016 average
33.9
$/barrel
2015 average
52.4
1,5
2,5
3,5
4,5
5,5
2014 2015 2016
2015 average
2.7
1Q 2016
average
2.1
$/MBtu
2014 average
4.4
Crude oil and gas prices
Prolonged drop in crude prices and slow recovery in 2016
// Henry Hub // // Brent //
Environment and Outlook
4
1
1,1
1,2
1,3
1,4
1,5
$/€
2014 2015 2016
2014 average
1.33
1Q 2016 average
1.10
2015 average
1.11
Exchange rate
Favourable evolution of exchange rate due to strong dollar
// $/€ Exchange rate //
5
Environment and Outlook
Downstream
Favourable environment for Downstream
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1Q 2016 average
6.3 2014 average
4.1
2014 2015 2016
$/barrel
2015 average
8.5
// Refining Margin Indicator //
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
0.2%
-3.5%
-6.4% -6.4%
-1.2%
-5.6%
-4.3%
4.5%
// Annual impact of gasolines and diesel
demand in Spain //
• Demand growth in 2015, after a fall of 30% in gasolines and 20% in
diesel from 2007 to 2014
6
Environment and Outlook
7.4
6.3
5.3 4.9
4.6 4.0
5.4
4.2 3.5 3.3 3.4
3.1
3.1
1.7 1.2 1.2
1.8
1.9 0
-1.0
-2.6
-1.7
1.4
3.2
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
Gross Domestic Product
Spain growing at 3.2% in 2015
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF, WEO, April 2016)
and Repsol’s Economic Research Division
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
% // Real GDP growth //
7
Emerging countries
Global economy
Advanced countries
Spain
Environment and Outlook
2015: volatility of the supply and demand balance
// 2015 Balance //
Demand Supply
NON CONVENTIONALS
non-OCDE
48.5
OCDE
46.2
OPEP crude oil
+ líquids
38.8
no-OPEP
57.7
• 2015 Demand
o 94.7 million boepd/day
o +2% vs. 2014
• 2015 Supply
o 96.5 million boepd/day
o +2.8% vs. 2014
2015: nearly 2 Million boepd /day misalignment between demand and supply 8
Million boepd/day
Environment and Outlook
2015 OPEP production determined by increases in Irak and Saudi Arabia
// Changes in OPEP production (1) vs. September 2014 //
2015 volatility marked by an excess of production
1. Includes crude oil and Gas Natural liquids
-1,0
-0,5
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
20
14 S
ep
20
14 O
ct
20
14 N
ov
20
14 D
ec
20
15 J
an
20
15 F
eb
20
15 M
ar
20
15 A
pr
20
15 M
ay
20
15 J
un
20
15 J
ul
20
15 A
ug
20
15 S
ep
20
15 O
ct
20
15 N
ov
20
15 D
ec
20
16 J
an
20
16 F
eb
20
16 M
ar
20
16 A
pr
Sep 2
014
Oct 2014
Nov 2
014
Dec 2
014
Jan 2
015
Feb 2
015
Mar
2015
April 2015
May 2
015
Jun 2
015
Jul 2015
Aug 2
015
Sep 2
015
Oct 2015
Nov 2
015
Dec 2
015
Jan2016
Feb 2
016
Mar
2016
April 2016
Total OPEP
Iraq
Iran
Saudi Arabia
Other
9
Environment and Outlook
Billion boepd/day
2016: start of the return to balance between supply and demand
Demand Supply
NON CONVENTIONALS
non-OCDE
49.8
OCDE
46.1
OPEP crude oil
+ liquids
39.7
non-OPEP
56.8
• 2016 Demand
o 95.9 million boepd/day
o +1,3% vs. 2015
• 2016 Supply
o 96.5 million boepd/day
o 0% vs. 2015
// 2016 Balance //
2016: stabilization of supply and demand growth 10
Environment and Outlook
Million boepd/day
Upward price forecast
// Brent // // Henry Hub //
Analysts Average
42
56
65
36 43
49
2016 2017 2018
$/barrel
2.34
2.88
3.15
2.33 2.58
2.83
2016 2017 2018
$/Mbtu
Recovery in prices expected since late 2016/ early 2017
Rating agencies average Analysts average Rating agencies average
11
Environment and Outlook
Energy Challenge: Climate Change- COP 21
// CO2 Emissions sector //
1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Million Tons CO2 e
Historical emissions
Emissions under current
policies
Emissions
under 450 ppm
scenario (2ºC)
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), 2016.
COP 21
Scenario
Commitment to a sustainable, fair and responsible energy supply (COP 21) 12
Environment and Outlook
Energy challenges: Demand growth
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2015.
1. CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate. 2. COP 21 scenario is assimilated to the New Policies scenario defined by the International Energy Agency
Mtoe
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
16.000
18.000
20.000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Historical Forecasts
// Primary energy demand //
The energy will continue to grow in all scenarios
Current Policies Scenario
COP 21 Scenario(2)
450ppm Scenario
1.4%
1.1%
0.4%
CAGR (1)
2013 - 2035
13
Environment and Outlook
Energy challenges Environment and Outlook
Repsol, committed to energy and environmental objectives of the XXI century 14
Securing the supply Competitiveness
Accessibility and universality Sustainability of the planet
The four
challenges of
energy
31% 24% 27% 28%
21% 22%
23% 23%
29%
18% 25% 29%
5%
10%
7% 5%
10%
14% 11% 10%
8% 4%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2013 450 ppm scenario COP 21 scenario Current Policiesscenario
Other renewables
Bioenergy
Hydro
Nuclear
Coal
Gas
Oil
Primary energy demand
// Oil and gas will supply broadly 50% of primary demand in all scenarios in 2035 //
All energy sources will be needed in the future, with increasing role of gas, Repsol is well
positioned to take this opportunity 15
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2015
1. COP 21 scenario is assimilated to the New Policies scenario defined by the International Energy Agency. 2. CAGR: Compound Annual Growth Rate
(1)
Environment and Outlook
+0.6% +1.4% +1.7%
-0.7% +0.5% +0.9% xx% CAGR 2013-2035
1% 3%
16
Final energy demand
// Matrix of energy demand expected in 2035 //
Environment and Outlook
40% 32% 37% 38%
15% 17%
17% 16%
10% 9%
9% 9%
22% 25%
25% 26%
13% 16% 12% 11%
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2013 Columna1 450 ppm scenario COP 21 scenario Current Policiesscenario
(1)
Coal in residential
Gas
Oil
Bioenergy
Electricity
Oil and natural gas will play a key role, to contribute more than 50% of
final energy demand in the world
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2015
1. COP 21 scenario is assimilated to the New Policies scenario defined by the International Energy Agency
Energy
CO2 emissions sources
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), CO2 Emissions from Fuel Combustion - Highlights 2015
// Global emissions
anthropogenic in origin //
// Energy Sector: global CO2
emissions by segment //
Others
14%
Agriculture 11%
Industrial
Processing 7%
Energy
68%
Others
7% Services
3%
Residential
6%
Industrial 19%
Transport
23%
Electricity
42%
Environment and Outlook
Electricity generation is now the main source of CO2,
but there is a broad field of action to reduce emissions 17
// CO2 emissions in
electricity generation //
0
2.000
4.000
6.000
8.000
10.000
12.000
14.000
1990 2013
Coal Oil Gas Others
MT CO2
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
Not all oil use emits CO2
13%
5%
8%
13%
6%
55% Transport
Energy generation
Petrochemicals
Other(1)
Buildings
Other industries
Almost 40% of oil demand is for uses that do not emit CO2 during use
~39%
• 95 million barrels are consumed
everyday worldwide
Source: IEA World Economic Outlook 2015
1. Others include agriculture, transformation, and non-energy uses (asphalts and lubricants)
18
Environment and Outlook
The transportation of the future will be a combination of the
internal combustion engine, hybrids and electric vehicles
gr CO2 eq/km
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Internal Combustion (IC)2014
Hybrids + Bios EV Germany EV Spain EV EU EV 100% Renewable
Transportation
Manufacturing
50%
23
Vehicle
Life
cycle
Vehicle
manufacturing
Battery
manufacturing
Obtaining
energy
Use of energy
in the vehicle
Vehicle
scrapping
management
Battery waste
management + +
Electric vehicles
• Emissions from electric vehicles in motion depend on the generation mix
• Electric vehicle manufacturing emits two times more than conventional car manufacturing
due to the battery
45% coal
Internal combustion engine
• Already available technology will allow for a
reduction of 50% of emissions by 2020
// Vehicle emissions by type //
Vehicle
Battery
Emissions for each type of vehicle must take into account the entire life cycle
Environment and Outlook
~50% Energy efficiency
Energy efficiency, a shared responsibility and main driver of emissions
reductions
// Contribution from energy efficiency in the reduction of global emissions //
~50%
24
25,0
27,0
29,0
31,0
33,0
35,0
37,0
39,0
2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029
• Industrial sector: Greater energy efficiency in
non-energy-intensive industries
• Residential sector: Change in lighting,
appliances, insulation, etc.
• Transport: Improvement in combustion engine
efficiency
// Main measures included in efficiency //
35 000
Mt CO2 e COP 21 Scenario(1)
450 Scenario
The International Energy Agency projects a 50% contribution from energy efficiency
in reaching scenarios compatible with the Paris Agreement roadmap
Source: International Energy Agency (IEA), World Energy Outlook 2015
1. The COP 21 scenario is included in the New Policies defined by the International Energy Agency
25 000
Environment and Outlook
Repsol is commited to reduce emissions
Innovation and technology will be key to achive our emission reduction
objectives
// Improvements in our fuels //
• “Premium” fuels
• Mix of biofuels
• Hydrogenated vegetable oils
• Automotive LPG
• R+D. New developments
25
// Different models to reduce emissions//
• Repsol reduced 9 Mt CO2 in 2008-2012 (21 Mt
in 2006-2015), equivalent to ~15% of its total
emissions
Repsol has assumed the cost of
reducing its CO2 emissions with
own resources, incorporating it to
its business model
Renewable generation model in
Spain
Economic-Industrial return and
Social return Subsidized financial return
Environment and Outlook
Repsol is prepared to take on the challenges of the future
All energy types must play their part without confrontation in the energy
scenario of the future 26
...Repsol will be a stronger, more agile, and more competitive company
• Operating in the free market
• Notable technological component
• Special emphasis on natural gas
• Clear action lines in all forms of transport
• Absolute priority for energy efficiency and reducing emissions
• High asset quality
• Geographic presence in the most competitive markets
• Human team capable of successfully completing all the challenges the future holds
Environment and Outlook
2015 Milestones and
Results
Main milestones of 2015
2015 marks the transformation of Repsol Group
TALISMAN
A transformational transaction
STRATEGIC PLAN
Create value in any scenario and increase resilience
2015 Milestones and Results
28
Production of
~700 000 boepd
~2.3 billion boe proved
reserves
~1 million bpd
refining capacity
Core businesses:
Upstream and Downstream
Non-operated shareholding:
GNF
Integrated business model
Tier 1 Downstream
Global and diversified
portfolio with presence in
40 countries
World-class explorer
Capable and talented
workforce
// Talisman Acquisition// May 2015: Closing
• Transformative deal with long term view
• Competitive multiples:
EV/2P reserves ~$10/bbl
• E&P portfolio and competitiveness upgrade
• Global scale and diversification
• Generates new opportunities
• Enhanced value-creation capabilities
Repsol today
An integrated company, operating across the entire value chain
2015 Milestones and Results
29
2016-2020 Key strategic lines
VALUE RESILIENCE
Shift from growth to value delivery, prepared for
the next growth wave
Commitment to mantain a competitive
shareholder compensation
Top tier resilience among integrated
companies
Self-financing strategy even in a stress
scenario
FCF breakeven after dividends at
$40/barrel Brent
PORTFOLIO MANAGEMENT EFFICIENCY
Synergies and Efficiency Program
with strict accountability
€2.1B/year savings
(Opex: €1.5B/year + Capex: €0.6B/year)
Capex flexibility
(~40% reduction vs 2014 Capex)
Creating value through
portfolio management
(€6.2B in divestments)
Creating value even in a stress scenario through efficiency and portfolio management
2015 Milestones and Results
30
Strategic Plan 2016-2020: Synergies and Efficiency Programme
New Efficiency
Programme
2.1 billion euros in savings per year (more than half in 2016)
Synergies €0.36B
• Savings from integration of companies
• Benefits from enhanced portfolio
• Other synergies
€0.5B
• Capture of cost deflation
• Efficiency improvement
• Cultural change
€0.6B
€0.5B
• Maximisation of integration benefits
• Operational optimisation
• Reliability of facilities
€0.2B • Optimisation of support functions
• Simplification and value creation
€1.5B €0.6B
// 2018 Opex impact //
Upstream Opex and
Capex efficiency
Corporatation right-sizing
Downstream profit
efficiency and
improvement
// 2018 Capex impact //
• 65% of synergies already captured
• More than 1,300 efficiency
initiatives identified in
Upstream
• Downstream and Corporate progress according to
schedule
2015 Milestones and Results
31
46% 40%
Billion dollars (2)
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
+
2017-2020 2016 2014
Strategic Plan 2016-2020: Capex reduction
• Upstream assets in advanced stage of development
• Limited presence in new capital-intensive development projects
• High share of unconventionals
(Capex responsive to crude prices)
• Portfolio optimisation after Talisman integration
• Limited commitments in exploration
o Expenses reduced(3) from ~$2.1B/year (2011-2014) to ~$0.9B/year (2016-2020)
• Low Downstream capital needs
High flexibility to manage investments
// Group Annual Capex (1) //
1. Repsol and Talisman were two separate companies in 2014 2. Figures in dollars with an exchange rate of $1.07/€ during the SP 3. Exploration expenses include G&G and G&A
2015 Milestones and Results
32
Strategic Plan 2016-2020: From growth to value
// Production Evolution //
0
1 000
800
600
400
200
x2
2020 Portfolio
Management
2020 organic production
2016 2014
kboepd
• Achieved Critical mass in E&P business
• Extensive portfolio and development projects
• Optionality to improve portfolio value by
divestment
2015 Milestones and Results
Upstream: with optimal size and portfolio achieved, the focus now shifts to value creation 33
Strategic Plan 2016-2020: Production
// Production ~700 kboepd by 2020 // // Focus: 3 regions and 3 play types //
Offshore
shallow
33%
Onshore
core plays
35%
Non-operated
offshore deep
9%
Unconventional
23%
2016-2020 production
~90% of production from core regions (2016-2020)
North America Latin America South-east Asia
1 000
800
600
400
200
0
kboepd
Portfolio
management
A larger and more focused Exploration & Production portfolio
2020 2014
2015 Milestones and Results
34
0
25
20
15
10
5
30
35
~29
Investments
~10
Divestments
~21
Operating cash flow post
tax
~6 ~4
Financial expenses Cash for dividend
and debt
Billion euros
// Cash movements 2016-2020 (accumulated) // (Stress scenario)
Self-financed strategic plan even under the stress scenario
Strategic Plan 2016-2020: Self-financed 2015 Milestones and Results
35
36
Strategic Plan 2016-2020: Value and Resilience
Stress scenario
x1.6
0
5,000
7,900
2015 2020
// EBITDA(2) //
Stress scenario
~€10B
// Cash for dividends and debt (2016-2020) //
1. Free cash flow breakeven after dividends 2. EBITDA at CCS (calculated based on inventories valuation at current cost of supplies)
9000
6000
3000
Millions of euros
Synergies and efficiency Capex flexibility
Active portfolio
management
Breakeven(1)
€2.1B/year More than 40%
700-750 kboepd
€6.2B
in divestments
~$40/bbl
pre-tax savings
by 2018
Upstream FCF
breakeven 2018+
2016-2020
Capex reduction vs 2014
Opex Capex
€1.5B €0.6B
~$60/bbl
Group FCF breakeven
2016-2020
Portfolio management and efficiency measures to create more value. ~$40/bbl breakeven
2015 Milestones and Results
Results 2015
1. Net recurring income at CCS (calculated based on inventories valuation at current cost of supplies)
2014 2015
Upstream 0.589 (0.909)
Downstream 1.012 2.150
Gas Natural Fenosa 0.441 0.453
Corporate and adjustments (0.335) 0.166
Adjusted Net Income (1) 1.707 1.860
Equity effect (0.606) (0.459)
Non-recurring income (0.086) (2.628)
Interrupted operations income 0.597 -
Net income 1.612 -1.227
+9 %
Figures in billions of euros
The integrated business model pushed adjusted net income over €1.8B with
severely depressed prices
2015 Milestones and Results
37
Comparison with peers
Resilient results under much lower crude oil and gas prices
// Adjusted net income 2015 vs 2014 //
Peers: BP, Statoil, BG, ConocoPhillips, Total, ExxonMobil, Chevron, and RD Shell
+9%
-18%
-50% -50% -51% -53% -58% -59%
-68%
-126% -140%
-120%
-100%
-80%
-60%
-40%
-20%
0%
20%
Repsol
Peer 1
Peer 2 Peer 3 Peer 4 Peer 5 Peer 6
Peer 7
Peer 8
Peer
Average
2015 Milestones and Results
38
Adjusted net income - Upstream
Upstream punished by environment
• Benchmark raw material prices plummeted
o Repsol's realization prices were better than these
international benchmarks
• Lack of production in Libya due to the country’s situation
• Partially offset by higher production
2014 2015
€0.589B
€(0.909)B
// Adjusted net income //
2015 Milestones and Results
Billions of euros
39
Exploration - Upstream
1. 32 wells: 19 exploratory + 13 appraisal (16 positive: 4 exploratory + 12 appraisal)
• 16 wells out of 32 with positive results(1)
o Algeria: Five in SE Illizi
o Brazil: Two in BM-C-33
o Bolivia: Three in Andina and one in Margarita
o U.S.: Three in Alaska
o Russia: Two in Karabashsky
• Acquisition of exploratory accreage o 190 blocks (74 from Talisman acquisition)
mainly in the U.S.
o Total net surface area (Repsol W.I.) = 112 931 km2
(93 462 km2from Talisman acquisition) Positive wells
16 positive wells in 2015
Pao de Açucar-A1 and A-2
Q-8, Q301, and Q-9
TESO-2, NDC-3, TDE-2,
TDE-3, and OTTS-1
K-4 and 6-P
MGR-8, BQN-4X,
RGD-102 and LPÑ-91
2015 Milestones and Results
40
Production - Upstream
Production grew by 57% in 2015 and is at around 700 kboepd in 1Q 2016
kboepd
355
559
2014 2015
• Talisman assets contributed ~200 kboepd
• Sapinhoá North (Brazil) production ramp-up
• Production started in Cardón IV (Venezuela)
• Growth projects have contributed 76 kboepd
• In the first quarter of 2016 production exceeded 700 kboepd
o 330 kboepd contributed by Talisman
+57%
2015 Milestones and Results
// Production //
41
Reserve replacement ratio - Upstream
Significant increase in reserves, higher quality, and geographic diversification
Replacement ratio (organic)
2015 Reserves
159% • Organic reserve replacement ratio: 159%
o Six years at over 100%
• Proven reserves increased 54% to 2.373B boe
o More than 1B boe reserves added
• Reserve replacement ratio including Talisman > 500%
2015 Milestones and Results
42
Growth projects - Upstream
Average reserve replacement rate from past three years: X%
Brazil - Sapinhoá (Guará)
• Average 2015 production of 190,000 boepd (current production at 250,000 boepd)
• Well connections in 2016 to reach 270,000 boepd
Brazil - Lapa (Carioca)
• FPSO in construction and equipment installation underway
• Production began in 4Q16, at 60,000 boepd by 2017
Algeria - Reggane
• In construction stage. Will produce 7 Mm3/day by 2017
UK - Monarb
• In construction stage
• Increased production in 2017 to 34,000 boepd
Malaysia - Kinabalu
• Production increase to 7,000 boepd by 2017
1
2
3
4
Note: Production figures at 100% (gross)
5
2015 Milestones and Results
43
6
7
8
Note: Production figures at 100% (gross)
Growth projects - Upstream 2015 Milestones and Results
44
Bolivia - Margarita / Huacaya
• Margarita stage 2 completed. Stage 3 underway
• Average 2015 production was 17.6 Mm3/day. (Hitting 20 Mm3/day in March 2016)
Peru – Kinteroni/Sagari
• Kinteroni average production in 2015 was 2.4 Mm3/d
• 4.5 Mm3/d starting in May 2016
• Sagari launch in 2018 to a total of 5.7 Mm3/d
Venezuela - Cardón IV
• Production began July 2015
• Hit 13.2 Mm3/day December 2015.
• Production now at 14.2 Mm3/day
Adjusted net income - Downstream
Downstream's excellent performance doubled its results
• Downstream performance has offset Upstream’s low cycle from
the drop in crude and gas prices
• Improved margins in refining and chemicals
• Improved performance in trading
• Larger volumes commercialised
2014 2015
€1.012B
€2.15B + 113%
2015 Milestones and Results
// Adjusted net income //
Billions of euros
45
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
$/barrel
Leadership - Downstream
Downstream resilience driven by integration of commercial and industrial departments
1. Calculated as adjusted operating income (CCS) of R&M, divided by volume of crude processed for 10 companies (Repsol, Cepsa, Eni, Galp, OMV, MOL, Total, PKN Orlen, Hellenic Petroleum, Saras)
• Leadership in refining and marketing integrated
margin
• Excellent asset quality
• Investments in efficiency and operating
improvements to leverage on market’s current situation
Repsol’s integrated margin Range of comparable companies
2015 Milestones and Results
$/barrel
46
// Refining and marketing's integrated margin(1) in Europe // (Repsol compared to industry)
Refining - Downstream
Historic Refining margins
2014 2015
4.1
8.5 $/barrel
// 2015 Utilisation //
88.9%
Distillation
• Margin indicator increased to $8.5/barrel
• More volume produced and products sold
• Refining system efficiency
o Large projects bringing in +4$/barrel
o Lower energy costs
o Higher capacity utilization
• Cutting-edge lubricants plant in Cartagena, partnered with
Korean company SKL
• Upgrade project in Pampilla refinery in Peru
// Refining margin indicator//
(Spain)
103.7%
Conversion
2015 Milestones and Results
47
Commercial, Chemicals, Gas & Power - Downstream
Larger volume and better performance in Commercial, Trading, and Chemicals activity
• Sales growth in Marketing (+7.4%)
• Prominent position in non-oil (stores, El Corte Inglés, ONCE, Michelin, Disney, etc.)
• New business models
• Better performance in lubricants, asphalts, and
specialised products
Commercial
• Better performance in Trading
• Weaker performance in Gas & Power due to the
drop in market prices
Trading and Gas & Power
• Competitiveness Plan: efficiency and differentiation
• Sales up by 6%
• Better market situation and environment
Chemicals
2015 Milestones and Results
48
1.9 MM€
8 MM€
(5.5 MM€) 4.7 MM€ (0.7 MM€) 0.5 MM€ (1 MM€) 11.9 MM€
0
4
8
12
16
Net DebtDecember 2014
TalismanAcquisition
Net Cash Flow CAPEX Divestments Dividends paid Hybridsissuance
Net DebtDecember 2015
€12B
Financial situation
Solid financial position
• Major impact from the purchase of Talisman
• Cash generation for debt reduction in 2015 (billion
euros)
• Bond issue (billion euros)
• Repurchase of Talisman bonds
• Liquidity (€9.13B) covers short term maturities more than twice
// Net debt // billion euros
TALISMAN
DEBT
ACQUISITION
PRICE
Cash generation for debt reduction:
One billion euros
16
12
8
4
0
2015 Milestones and Results
49
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
1-ene-15 1-mar-15 1-may-15 1-jul-15 1-sep-15 1-nov-15 1-ene-16 1-mar-16
Repsol share
Repsol's shareholder compensation still competitive
• Impact of price environment on all oil companies
• Dividends paid out in 2015: 0.96 euros/share
• January 2016: interim dividend payout (0.466 euros/share) with high acceptance of scrip
• February: final dividend payout of 0.30 euros/share
proposed
Share behaviour associated with
crude prices
2015 Milestones and Results
// Repsol shares and Brent // Base 100
January
2015
Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb March
2016
Repsol
Brent
50
First quarter 2016 Results
Positive and increasing results in Company business units
1Q 2016
Upstream 0.017
Downstream 0.556
Gas Natural Fenosa 0.099
Corporate and adjustments (0.1)
Adjusted net income 0.572
Equity effect (0.157)
Non-recurring income 0.019
Net income 0.434
Figures in billions of euros
2015 Milestones and Results
51
Upstream performance first quarter 2016
Positive results despite drop in prices
kboepd
355
714
4Q 2015 1Q 2016
// Production //
2015 Milestones and Results
1Q 2015
€(0.190)B
€0.017B
// Adjusted net income //
Billions of euros
1Q 2016
698
1Q 2015
+101%
+2%
52
Downstream performance first quarter 2016
Strong performance of Downstream business, especially in Chemicals and Refining
2015 Milestones and Results
1Q 2015
€0.534B
€0.556
B
// Adjusted net income //
Billions of euros
1Q 2016
• Robust Refining margin indicator ($6.3/barrel)
o 86% distillation use
o 103% conversion unit use
• Larger margins and volumes in Chemicals due to:
o Operational improvements
o More favourable environment
• Commercial business units in line with first quarter 2015
53
Efficiency
and
synergies
programme
Meeting our commitments
Ability to reduce debt after dividend payout, even in low price
environment
2015 Milestones and Results
// 2016 Target //
// 2016 Estimate//
Efficiencies +€0.9B
+€1B
Total +€1.1B +€1.2B
€0.2B
€0.2B Synergies
Capex
flexibility
// 2016 Target //
// Current //
Repsol Capex ~€3.9B €0.8B (4)
Divestments
and portfolio
management
// 2016-17 Target //
// Current //
Divestments €3.1B
€2.8B(1)
Production 706,000 boed (2) 714,000 boed (4) Value and
resilience
// Target //
// Current //
FCF Breakeven (3) ~$40/boe
~$40/boe (4)
Upstream FCF
breakeven ~$65/boe ~$65/boe (4)
1. Includes agreed-upon transactions and other operations. 2. 2016 annual budget. 3. Free cash flow breakeven after interest and dividends. 4. Figure corresponding to 1Q 2016.
~€0.24B recorded during first quarter
54
Innovation and sustainability
Innovation and sustainability, a priority
• Cutting edge projects in Upstream
• Leaders in R&D in energy for transportation
• More flexible refining and less CO2
• 3rd year of Inspire: 98 proposals received
• Global talent
o 400 researchers in Spain, the US, and Brazil
o Networking with more than 100 universities and
research centres around the world
• 26 patents and 46 scientific publications
// Technological innovation // // Sustainability //
• 22.7 million euros in voluntary social investment
• 15 sustainability plans with over 700 activities linked to variable
(over 90% fulfilment)
• Social energy Fundación Repsol
o Social investment: 10.1 million euros
o 200 projects and 800,000 beneficiaries in 2015
o Entrepreneurs Fund: Five years (2,000 proposals and 32 projects “incubated”)
2015 Milestones and Results
55
Safety and environment
Accident frequency rate
0
2
4
6
8
10
2002 2015
-90%
// Zero Accidents commitment // // Energy Efficiency //
Committed to safety and the environment
• 379,000 new tons of CO2 prevented in 2015
• Up to 4 million tons of CO2 annualy prevented
• Additional reduction of another million tons by 2020
• Less waste and better water management
• Oil&Gas Climate Initiative
• Path focused on Zero Accidents goal
• 2020 plan of proactive safety focused on people,
processes, and plants
2015 Milestones and Results
56
Conclusions
Repsol: a stronger, more agile, and more competitive company
• Highly integrated company
• Achieved the right-sizing in
Exploration and Production
• Leadership in Downstream
• Skilled and committed workforce
• Optimised portfolio: divestments
• Technology and know-how
• Focus on key areas and types of
plays
• Safety and sustainability
• Efficiency in Opex and Capex
• Flexibility in Capex management
• Maintenance of rating
• Positive cash flow at $40/barrel
Value creation Resilience
2015 Milestones and Results
Integrated business model
57
Proposals for the
Annual General
Meeting
Proposals for the Annual
General Meeting
• Points regarding the annual accounts, results allocation, management by the board and re-election of accounts
auditor
o First. Review and approval, if appropriate, of the Annual Financial Statements and Management Report of Repsol, S.A.,
the Consolidated Annual Financial Statements and Consolidated Management Report, for fiscal year ended 31 December
2015.
o Second. Review and approval, if appropriate, of the proposed results allocation for 2015.
o Third. Review and approval, if appropriate, of the management of the Board of Directors of Repsol, S.A. during 2015.
o Fourth. Appointment of the Accounts Auditor of Repsol, S.A. and its Consolidated Group for fiscal year 2016.
59
• Points regarding shareholder’s remuneration
o Fifth. Increase of share capital in an amount determinable pursuant to the terms of the resolution, by issuing new common shares
having a par value of one (1) euro each, of the same class and series as those currently in circulation, charged to voluntary
reserves, offering the shareholders the possibility of selling the free-of-charge allocation rights to the Company itself or on the
market. Delegation of authority to the Board of Directors or, by delegation, to the Delegate Committee or the CEO, to fix the date
the increase is to be implemented and the terms of the increase in all respects not provided for by the General Meeting, all in
accordance with article 297.1.(a) of the Companies Act. Application for official listing of the newly issued shares on the Madrid,
Barcelona, Bilbao and Valencia stock exchanges, through the Automated Quotation System (Sistema de Interconexión Bursátil), as
well as on any other stock exchanges or securities markets where the Company´s shares are or could be listing.
o Sixth. Second capital increase in an amount determinable pursuant to the terms of the resolution, by issuing new common shares
having a par value of one (1) euro each, of the same class and series as those currently in circulation, charged to voluntary
reserves, offering the shareholders the possibility of selling the free-of-charge allocation rights to the Company itself or on the
market. Delegation of authority to the Board of Directors or, by delegation, to the Delegate Committee or the CEO, to fix the date
the increase is to be implemented and the terms of the increase in all respects not provided for by the General Meeting, all in
accordance with article 297.1.(a) of the Companies Act. Application for official listing of the newly issued shares on the Madrid,
Barcelona, Bilbao and Valencia stock exchanges, through the Automated Quotation System (Sistema de Interconexión Bursátil), as
well as on any other stock exchanges or securities markets where the Company´s shares are or could be listing.
Proposals for the Annual
General Meeting
60
• Point regarding programs for participation in the share capital.
o Seventh. Share Acquisition Plan by Beneficiaries of Multiannual Remuneration Programmes.
• Points regarding the composition of the Board of Directors.
o Eight. Re-election of Mr. Isidro Fainé Casas as Director.
o Ninth. Ratification of the appointment by co-optation and re-election as Director of Mr. Gonzalo Gortázar Rotaeche.
• Points regarding Remuneration of the Company Directors.
o Tenth. Advisory voting on the Annual report on Repsol, S. A. Board Member Remunerations for the 2015 fiscal year.
o Eleventh. Implementation of a compensation system referred to the share value for the CEO of the Company.
•Points regarding general matters
oTwelfth. Delegation of powers to interpret, supplement, develop, execute, rectify and formalize the resolutions adopted by the
General Shareholders’ Meeting.
Proposals for the Annual
General Meeting
61
20th May
Annual General Meeting 2016
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