Anita Pirc Velkavrh, EEA. 1.EEA Strategic futures group experience 2.Difference between scenarios and vision (types of future – tools –scenarios- future.

Security implications of future water use in Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower development

Project methodological approach

Anita Pirc Velkavrh, EEA

1. EEA Strategic futures group experience

2. Difference between scenarios and vision (types of future – tools –scenarios- future thinking process-visions)

3. How were developed scenarios for WB?

4. How was developed vision for WB?

5. Methodological approach to forward-looking assessment of water security in WB by using scenarios, some projections and vision Overall concept

Looking from the present to the future

Looking from the future to the present

Assessing security implications related to environment (threats, risks, security&environment)

1. EEA STRATEGIC FUTURES GROUP

Knowladge base for forward-looking information and services /FLIS/

Information system with forward-looking components

Platform of IT web based services for sharing information, reporting and interactive communciation

Coopeartion with countires and other institutions

Eionet network establishment and enhancment (NRC FLIS)

OSCE, UNEP, ASEF, COST, regional conventions (Danube)

Forward-looking assessments

◊ European scenarios (PRELUDE)

◊ Environmental integrated assessments – reports

EU State of environment and outlook report

2010: Part A, Global megatrends 2015

EEA Land use scenarios-PRELUDE: scale of governance and marketsStory and simulation approach (SaS)

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What was done for WB region

1. some FL assessments (2006-2012)2. Scenarios on water availability in 2060- scenario building: explorative, participatory workshop : Opportunities for development in the Western Balkans in the context of Climate Change impacts and Water Scarcity, Belgrade Serbia 24-26 October 2011- scenarios refinement (water use, energy supply, security implications): participatory workshop : Security implications of future water use in Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower development, Ljubljana Slovenia 11-12 February 2013

3. Vision on hydropower development - vision building: participatory workshop, using web based tool for vision building : Security implications of future water use in Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower development, Ljubljana Slovenia 11-12 February 2013

Victoria University, Australia

2. DIFFERENCE BETWEEN SCENARIOS AND VISION

How to deal with the future?

Zureck and Henrichs, 2007

Tools to deal with the future

Scenarios

… a plausible description of how the future may unfold based on a coherent and internally consistent set of assumptions about key relationships and driving forces (STEEP).

Note that scenarios are neither predictions nor forecasts.

It is better to be vaguely right than exactly wrong.

Visions building

Visioning is a technique that is used to support a group of stakeholders in developing a shared vision of the future.

The goal of visioning is to develop written and visualised statements of a community’s long term goals and strategic objectives State A (Where are we now?). The outcomes of the visioning workshop describe State B (Where do we want to be?)

Through stakeholder workshops to provide the basis for a ‘road-mapping’ exercise, and is an attempt to generate a shared picture of a desirable future and way forward.

Vision

scenarios

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3. How were built scenarios for WB?

Scenarios on water availability in 2060- scenario building: explorative, participatory workshop: Opportunities for development in the Western Balkans in the context of Climate Change impacts and Water Scarcity, Belgrade Serbia 24-26 October 2011

- scenarios refinement (water use, energy supply, security implications): participatory workshop : Security implications of future water use in Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower development, Ljubljana Slovenia 11-12 February 2013

WHERE WE ARE IN SCENARIO PROCESS?

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Worksop question:

What are the options for developments in western Balkan region to hedge risks associated with climate change and water availability?

Outcomes:

1. Scenarios on impact of climate change to water availability in WB until 2060

2. Key risks which may occur in 4 scenarios

3. Pathways to some goals to hedge the risks

Scenarios building workshop:"Opportunities for development in the Western Balkans in the context of Climate Change impacts and Water Scarcity” Belgrade on 24-26 October 2011

Define scenario question

L

SCENARIO BUILDING PROCESS

- explorative, intuitive

ST

EE

P

Identify driving forces Identify most important uncertainties

S1

S3

S2

S4

Develop plausible scenariosImplications and paths,warning indicators

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1.SCENARIO QUESTION

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Group 1

20

Group 2

21

Group 3

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2. Most important and most uncertain driving forces in WB:• Climate change impacts (high-low) - preselected one selected at the workshop:• Land use changes (favourable- unfavourable)• Economic growth (investment, recovery)• Real resources cost and affordability (availability)

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24

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SFRJ (socialistic federative Republic of Yugoslavia)

 Equality

Quite high quality of lifeGood knowledge base

Good environment managementIntegrated water management, strong policies and cross border agreement,

renewable energy dominating

Endless horror 

poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, the day after tomorrow., deteriorated environment

,spiral development to negative 

high water scarcity, extreme events not managed leading to further deterioration of

economy  

Horror without end 

poverty, hopeless, run to the hills, ecosystems recovery

drinking water deficit, scarcity in general, water use in agriculture mainly

Yes, we can, Technogarden in Balkan 

Green and rich and can tackleIntensive resource use, controlled,

technology driven  

Ground water drop, import of water from Russia, energy dependant on imports

Climate change impacts

Eco

nom

ic g

row

th

Sustainable

highlow

Un-sustainable

3. Selected scenarios axes and developed scenarios

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4. How was developed vision for WB ?

Vision on hydropower development 2030

- participatory workshop, using web based tool for vision building: Security implications of future water use in Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower development, Ljubljana Slovenia 11-12 February 2013

Vision building tool, 7FP project VOLANTE /EU land use scenarios(presentation from Alterra, NL)

RESULTS : Vision on HP development in WB-Group 1

RESULTS : Vision on HP development in WB-Group 2

RESULTS : Vision on HPdevelopment in WB-Group 3

Main elements for input of the common vision (preliminary):

Exploitation of hydro potential in the region should continue in the context of the expand of general energy production contributing to better self-sufficiency and possible exports.

Present water uses should not be endangered and needs for other water uses development should be fulfilled.

Hydropower development represents also some risks to biodiversity, river ecology, extreme events, financial investments etc. Benefits-risks analyses and sustainable development criteria should be the bases for development.

Strong regional and international cooperation, absence of conflicts and strong institutional setting will support sustainable development of hydropower and other water uses on the bases of domestic knowledge and technologies while integrating other (especially EU) knowledge, legislation and experience. It will contribute also to reduction of poverty and enhancing quality of life ( recreation, food supply, water supply) .

Conflicts within and between the regions are representing threats to sustainable development and could have its negative effect in all emphasized issues.

Methodological approach for the project forward-looking assessment

"Future water use and the challenge of hydropower development in western Balkan"

Scenarios:Climate change impactsEconomic development

1 The good society2 Techno garden in Balkans3 Run to the hills4 Downward spiral

STATE

Past to present developments

THREATS and RISKS

FUTURE

2060water resources use

Desired vision of hydropower development 2030

(stakeholders workshop)

SUMMARRY

What does desired HP development mean for 7 modules of security implications?

RESPONSE

management options of risks • management of water resources in conjunction to renewable energy planning

• economic connection between water and power resources (prising…)

• green economy

stakeholders workshop

-Water availability for human use-Environment related-Extreme events-Food security-Health-Conflicts

1 The good society

2 Techno garden in

Balkans

3 Run to the hills

4 Downward spiral

D r i v i n g f o r c e s

SCENARIOS – explorative, qualitative

WATER AVAILABILITY projections

HP DEVELOPMENT

SECURITY IMPLICATIONS for each scenario:Water availability for human useEnvironment relatedExtreme eventsFood securityHealthconflicts

Looking from the present to the future

indicators

Desired vision for HP

Normative, qualitative (some

qualiative elements

Windtunelling of the vision through 4

scenarios

STATEof water resourcesWhat can be done now to hedge the

risks?

THREATS and RISKS

SUMMARRY

What does desired HP development mean for 7 modules of security implications?

What are some of possible RESPONSES to hedge the risks?

Looking from the future to present

Security implications:Water availability for human Environment relatedExtreme eventsFood securityHealthconflicts

?

WB scenarios:1 The good society

2 Techno garden in Balkans

3 Run to the hills

4 Downward spiral

Land use parameters

1 The good society

2 Techno garden in Balkans

3 Run to the hills

4 Downward spiral

8 Regional Climate Models

24 results

(4 scenarios x 8 models)

Water quantity Modelling

Range of changes of water quantity in the future in WB (per year, per season)

We will have in 2030 15%% less water. If we want more HP in our vision this means risk.In 2060/2100 we will have 30% less water

EXAMPLE of interpretation of LU parameters in qualitative scenarios

Agriculture in WB scenarios

(qualit. description)

1 The good society

2 Techno garden in Balkans

3 Run to the hills

4 Downward spiral

Land use parameters:agriculture use

(qualit. description +quant. indication)

1 The good society + 5%

2 Techno garden in Balkans – 3%

3 Run to the hills + 20%

4 Downward spiral + 30%

For LU quantitative indication use Prelude where possible

Example of outcome

Projections of scenarios impacts to water quantityTranslating between quality and quantity

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Environment security - definition

The security of individuals, communities, nation-states, and the global community as a whole is increasingly jeopardised because of unpremeditated environmental, non-military, threats.

Environmental security is seen as protection capability of societal systems (communities) to withstand threats of

(1) environmental asset scarcity,

(2) environmental risks or adverse changes, and

(3) environment related tensions and conflicts.

R.Perelet (1994)

"The environment: towards a sustainable future”

Millenium project

Definitions used so far in the project:

For each scenario define threats that can jeopardize water availability

Define risks: risk is related to the impact of threat and vulnerability of water. Participants should think how big risk is in the region in relation to threat add define high, medium and low risks to water in Western Balkans. They can also provide some sub regional specifications, for example on the coast, in the cites in specific countries, etc.

Security is to withstand threats. Risks?

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Assessment of eleven global megatrends (EEA SOER 2010) impacting European region,

Global megatrend on climate change: Increasing severity of the consequences of climate change Accelerating climate change impacts will imperil food and water supplies, human health and harm terrestrial and marine life. Europe may see also more human migrations, changes in migratory species and aggravated pressure on resources availability.

Environmental changesDegradation

Environmental stressResources scarcity/abundance

Opportunity for prevention, mitigation, adaptation

Economic and social context and impacts

Environment related security impacts

Ecological security, health risks water security, food security, energy security, resource security

Human security

environment related tensions and conflictsDestabilisation and conflicts

(civil unrest, wars, international instability)

Environment and security assessment

Scenario 1

NAME

RISK

THREATS to risk

(according to STEEP categories)

Risk description:

-high, medium, low

- time frame of appearance

(long term-50 years and more, short term )

GOALS

Shortages of water in coastal cities

Water infrastructure out dated (technological) and new not put in place to follow developments (economical, political)

Increased tourism (economical)

Decreased precipitation (environmental)

High

Long term

1. revitalise spatial planning system (political)

2. introduce new and more efficient technologies

….

Threats and risks in WB scenarios

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RISKS on water availability in Western Balkans

risks of spatially and temporally uneven water supply changing climate patterns and extreme events

water management decisions such as planned cuts in water storage and

increasing use of hydropower.

risk of shortages of good quality drinking water, particularly in coastal and urban regions

risks to agricultural, industrial and transport sectors

indirect water-related risks resulting from climate change: poverty, health and conflict arising from competition for scarce water resources.

THANK YOU

Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future production and consumption patterns:

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forces shaping the future of the environment in the Western Balkans, in particular the role of consumption and production patterns

Different futures

State

Driving forces

2010

Caucasus

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Global workshop

OSCE-EEA: Regional security implications of climate change impacts

Regional workshops

Global driving forces Regional Scenarios

Eastern Europe

Food security

Western BalkansWater

availabilityArctic

MediterraneanCentral Asia

Water-energy-agriculture nexus

2010 2011 2013

Regional to Global workshop

Impacts to securityAssessment;Environment and security key messages

2012

SOER 2010 — assessment of global megatrends

Shifting Bases, Shifting Perils, A Scoping Study of Security Implications of Climate Change in the OSCE Region

EEA Brochure: Using scenarios as tool for better understanding environment and security issues

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Why do we need to look into the future?

Policy making needs to uphold long term sustainability goals with suitable approaches and precautionary actions

Education / Public Information

Environment forward-looking assessment

Science / Research

Strategic Planning / Decision Support

We face very dynamic changes and increasing complex environment

Slide

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Typology of scenarios

Exploratory vs Anticipatory Scenarios

exploratory scenarios present -> future to explore uncertainties/driving forces/developments to test impacts of implementing specific policies

anticipatory scenarios (also ‘normative’ scenarios) present <- future to investigate how specific end state can be reached to show how to achieve environmental targets

Forecasts versus Foresight

13 December 2010USAF/FOI

CurrentRealities(mental maps)

MultiplePaths

AlternativeFuture Images

FORESIGHT

The Present The Path The Future

FORECAST

Some tools for exploring options for policy decisions, impacts and effectiveness

EX ANTE ANALYSESProvide options for the future and about the impact of our actions SCENARIOS AND PROJECTIONS IMPACT ASSESSMENT COST BENEFIT ANALYSES

STAKEHOLDER PARTICIPATION to elicit a stakeholder response, deep involvement in the process of options development – better commitment to final

policy decisions.

EX POST ANALYSESEEA published work n this area: Packaging waste management (se EEA report) Urban waste water treatment policies (see EEA report) Use of market based instruments (see EEA report)

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RISKS GOALS- risks management 1.

UNEVEN WATER SUPPLY IN TIME & SPACE -coastal regions, urban regions

High level of monitoring system/network Integrated water management Sustainable spatial planning Cooperation with neighbours and international conventions

2.

UNEXPECTED HASARDOUS IMPACT OF WATER and underestimation of severity

High level of monitoring and early warning system Direct water from N to S, maintain reservoirs, spatial planning maintenance of water reservoirs

4.

INSUFFICIENT AND/OR INADEQUATE WATER INFRASTRUCTURE (SUPPLY)

Sustainable spatial planning

5.

RISKS TO AGRICULTURE AND INDUSTRY , RIVER TRANSPORT Low

Efficient irrigation technologies water management, green technologies, renewable energy increase-HP

6.

DRINKING WATER SCARCITY

Improvement of water supply network and efficiency Water affordability for all people

7.

RISK OF HIGH SHARE OF RENEWABLE ENERGY (HYDROPOWER) – THEY CHANGE WATER REGIME Low

Technological advances Water and energy strategies combined Integrated participatory based water management

8.

WATER POLLUTION, SALINISATION, EROSION

Forest management, water reuse, preservation of water quality (EU water directive) Technological advances

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Pathways to reach the goalsS1 good society:

1) access of safe water to everybody, 2) affordable to people.Legislation, social areas, economy for kick off-technology-economy instruments, environment

S2 technogarden :

Pathways to safe water supply: Political stability, Education, Renewable energy, Green technologies, Production, Green agriculture , Water treatment, Tourism, Recycle and reuse, R&D support, Good decisions

“Economy Politics youth knowledge development”

S3 and S4 up to hills and downward spiral:

The foundation of pathways is in good governance and political stability

and everything starts from there.

pathway also consists of:

rewards and punishment depending on behaviour,

education, improve people’s awareness of environment, environmental workshops,

expert base decision making,

technological improvement,

increase water storage capacity,

economic development.

“In order to reach our goals we must not bite more than we can chew”.