An Independent Analysis of the 2011 USDA Pesticide Residue Data
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7/30/2019 An Independent Analysis of the 2011 USDA Pesticide Residue Data
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An Independent Analysis of the 2011
Data From the USDA-AMS Pesticide
Detection Program
Steven D. Savage, Ph.D.
Savage&Associates
Applied Mythology Blog
savage.sd@gmail.com
http://www.savageagro.com/http://appliedmythology.blogspot.com/http://appliedmythology.blogspot.com/http://www.savageagro.com/7/30/2019 An Independent Analysis of the 2011 USDA Pesticide Residue Data
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Contents
High Level Summary
Background and Methodology
Summary Statistics
Pesticide Detections Relative to
Crop/Compound-Specific EPA
Tolerances
Detections Relative to Tolerance
Differences by Country of Origin
Detections Relative to Intrinsic Toxicity
(Acute Oral ALD50)
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7/30/2019 An Independent Analysis of the 2011 USDA Pesticide Residue Data
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High Level SummaryAs has been the case for many years, the
USDAs Pesticide Detection Program (PDP)
confirms that between thorough regulation,
grower training and grower compliance with
EPA label restrictions, the fruit and
vegetable in the US from both domestic and
import sources can be eaten with
confidence because pesticide residues,
when present, are at very low levels which
do not represent any significant risk to the
consumer. There are minor differencesbetween crops and sources, but none that
deserve to be called dirty.
EWG has ranked 51 crops by its measure
of how much pesticide residue is present
(lower number = more pesticides). When
that is compared with a more appropriate
measure such as the percent of detectionsthat are at less than one tenth of the EPA
tolerance, there is no correlation
Pesticide residues were also detected on
many of the organic samples picked at
random as part of the PDP. Those were
also at low levels.
Comparison of an EPA Tolerance-based Measure
and the EWG Ranking
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
EWG Rank (high = "cleane r")
%D
etectionsTolerance 0.18
Tolerance 0.49
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
PercentofDetections
AllAll
Detections Relative to
Acute Toxicity for All
Fruits and Vegetables
All
Higher than the LD50 0.00Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.06
Less than 1/10th the LD50 99.94
Less than 1/100th the LD50 98.50
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 93.54
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 43.94
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
Only 0.6% (6) of all the detections were within 1/10 th of the LD50 with the
highest single example (a hot pepper) still having a 6x safety factor.
Someone would have to rapidly eat six times their body weight of those
specific peppers to get that toxic dose, but the toxicity of the capsaicin
would effect them first. Also, for perspective, the safety margin for the
caffeine in an ordinary cup of coffee is only 2.13.
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Comparison of
detections with and
without tolerances
2011 USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 5 5.5 6 6.5 7
Log10 of Detection/LD50
PercentofDetecti
ons
Detections withTolerances
Detections w/o
Tolerances
10x100x
1,000x
10,000x
The X values represent how many times someones body
weight of the produce they would need to consume to get to atoxic dose
With a few exceptions, the detections of materials
without crop-specific tolerances were quite a bit lower
relative to the compounds LD50 than the detection of
compounds with tolerances
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Detections Equal to Or Above EPA Tolerance for All
Crops
Detections Relative to Tolerance
0
0.5
1
1.5
22.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
All
BabyFood-GreenBeans
BabyFood-Pea
rs
Bab
yFood-SweetPota
to
Cabbag
e
Cantaloupe
Cauliflow
er
CherryTomatoes
HotPeppe
rs
Lettuce
Mushroom
s
Onion
OrangeJuice
Papaya
Plum
s
SnapPeas
Spinach,Canned
Spinach,Frozen
SweetBellPeppe
rs
Tangerines
WinterSquash
PercentofDetections
>Tolerance
Equal Tolerance
In the 2011 PDP,
detections above
tolerance were only
found for cabbage,
cantaloupe, snap peas,
frozen spinach and
sweet bell peppers.
The USDA and EPA
concluded that these
detections did not
represent any
significant risk.
Canned beets werealso tested in 2011
(756 samples), but
there were no residues
detected at all
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Detections Relative to Acute Toxic Dose for All Crops
Detections Relative to Oral ALD50
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
All
Ba
byFood-GreenBeans
BabyFood-Pears
BabyFood-SweetPotato
Cabba
ge
Cantalou
pe
Cauliflower
CherryTomatoes
HotPeppers
Lettu
ce
Mushroo
ms
Onion
OrangeJu
ice
Papa
ya
Plu
ms
SnapPe
as
Spinach,
Canned
Spinach,
Frozen
SweetBellPepp
ers
Tangerines
WinterSquash
PercentofD
etections
>0.1 x LD50
>0.01 x LD50
In the 2011 PDP,detections with less
that a 10x safety factor
were only found in a
few samples from hot
peppers, sweet
peppers and tangerines
the safety factor is the
number of times ones
body weight that would
have to be consumed
to reach the LD50
dose). Just for
reference, the safety
factor for a typical cupof coffee (90 mg of
caffeine) is only 2.13
(one would have to
drink 2 times their body
weight of coffee to hit
the LD50)
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Pesticide Detections Relative to Crop- and Compound-
Specific EPA Tolerances
Baby Food Green Beans
Pears
Sweet Potatoes
Cabbage Cantaloupe
Cauliflower
Cherry Tomatoes
Hot Peppers
Lettuce
Mushrooms
Onions Orange Juice
Papayas
Plums
Snap Peas
Spinach, Canned
Spinach, Frozen
Sweet Bell Peppers Tangerines
Winter Squash
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Baby Food, Green
Beans (584 Samples)
Baby Food - Green Beans
>Tolerance 0.00
Tolerance 0.00
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Baby Food, Pears
(585 Samples)
Baby Food - Pears
>Tolerance 0.00
Tolerance 0.00
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Baby Food, Sweet
Potato (585 Samples)
Baby Food - Sweet Potato
>Tolerance 0.00
Tolerance 0.00
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Cabbage
(742 Samples)
Cabbage
>Tolerance 0.96
Tolerance 0.00
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Cantaloupe
(739 Samples)
Cantaloupe
>Tolerance 0.25
Tolerance 0.25
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Cauliflower
(186 Samples)
Cauliflower
>Tolerance 0.00
Tolerance 0.00
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Cherry Tomatoes
(738 Samples)2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
210-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12
Natural Log of Detection/Tolerance
Pe
rcentofDetections
Cherry Tomatoes
All
Cherry Tomatoes
>Tolerance 0.00
Tolerance 0.55
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Hot Peppers
(553 Samples)
Hot Peppers
>Tolerance 0.00
Tolerance 0.22
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Lettuce
(744 Samples)
Lettuce
>Tolerance 0.00
Tolerance 0.00
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Mushrooms
(186 samples)
Mushrooms
>Tolerance 0.00
Tolerance 0.00
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Onions
(186 Samples)
Onion
>Tolerance 0.00
Tolerance 0.00
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Orange Juice
(585 samples)
Orange Juice
>Tolerance 0.00
Tolerance 0.00
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Papayas
(384 Samples)
Papaya
>Tolerance 0.00
Tolerance 0.00
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Plums
(143 Samples)
Plums
>Tolerance 0.00
Tolerance 0.00
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Snap Peas
(744 Samples)2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
210-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12
Natural Log of Detection/Tolerance
Pe
rcentofDetections
Snap Peas
All
Snap Peas
>Tolerance 1.92
Tolerance 4.11
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Spinach, Canned
(198 Samples)
Spinach, Canned
>Tolerance 0.00
Tolerance 0.00
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Spinach, Frozen
(198 Samples)
Spinach, Frozen
>Tolerance 0.73
Tolerance 0.00
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Sweet Bell Peppers
(741 samples)2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
210-1-2-3-4-5-6-7-8-9-10-11-12
Natural Log of Detection/Tolerance
PercentofDetections
Sweet Bell
Peppers
All
Sweet Bell Peppers
>Tolerance 0.04
Tolerance 0.50
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Tangerines
(717 Samples)
Tangerines
>Tolerance 0.00
Tolerance 0.00
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Winter Squash
(186 Samples)
Winter Squash
>Tolerance 0.00
Tolerance 0.41
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Detections Relative to Tolerance Differences by
Country of Origin
US and Mexico
US and Canada
US and Guatemala
US and Chile
US and Peru
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US and Mexico
All US
>Tolerance 0.18 0.05
At Tolerance 0.49 0.15
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US and Canada
All US
>Tolerance 0.18 0.05
At Tolerance 0.49 0.15
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US and Guatemala
All US
>Tolerance 0.18 0.05
At Tolerance 0.49 0.15
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US and Chile
All US
>Tolerance 0.18 0.05
At Tolerance 0.49 0.15
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US and Peru
All US
>Tolerance 0.18 0.05
At Tolerance 0.49 0.15
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Detections Relative to Intrinsic Toxicity (Acute Oral ALD50)
Baby Food Green Beans
Pears
Sweet Potatoes
Cabbage Cantaloupe
Cauliflower
Cherry Tomatoes
Hot Peppers Lettuce
Mushrooms
Onions Orange Juice
Papayas
Plums
Snap Peas
Spinach, Canned
Spinach, Frozen
Sweet Bell Peppers
Tangerines
Winter Squash
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
PercentofDetections
Baby Food - GreenBeans
All
Baby Food Green
Beans
Baby Food - Green Beans
Higher than the LD50 0.00Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 90.57
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 42.26
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
The safety margin for even the highest detection in green bean baby food was
still more than 100x the childs body weight
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
PercentofDetections
Baby Food - Pears
All
Baby Food - Pears
Baby Food - Pears
Higher than the LD50 0.00Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 99.95
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 85.77
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
To reach a toxic dose, someone would have to eat more than 1000 times their
body weight of the pear baby food sample with the highest detected residue
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
PercentofDetections
Baby Food - SweetPotato
All
Baby Food Sweet
Potato
Baby Food - Sweet Potato
Higher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 100.00
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
The only detections in sweet potato baby foods were at extremely low levels
relative to the intrinsic acute toxicology of the compound
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
PercentofDetections
Cabbage
All
Cabbage
Cabbage
Higher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 97.12
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 71.15
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Cantaloupe
All
Cantaloupe
Cantaloupe
Higher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 95.79
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 78.96
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 29.95
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Cauliflower
All
Cauliflower
Cauliflower
Higher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 55.41
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Cherry Tomatoes
All
Cherry Tomatoes
Cherry Tomatoes
Higher than the LD50 0.00Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 99.89
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 98.68
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 58.79
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Hot Peppers
All
Hot Peppers
Hot Peppers
Higher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.48
Less than 1/10th the LD50 99.52
Less than 1/100th the LD50 94.57
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 84.13
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 39.97
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
There were 3 detections of hot peppers with less than a 10x
safety margin relative to the LD50 (all the oxime metabolite of
oxamyl, margins 6-7.7), but the capsaicin would have a lower
safety margin.
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Lettuce
All
Lettuce
LettuceHigher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 98.07
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 51.37
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Mushrooms
All
Mushrooms
Mushrooms
Higher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 13.82
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Onion
All
Onions
Onion
Higher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 92.31
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 84.62
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Orange Juice
All
Orange Juice
Orange Juice
Higher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 98.85
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 98.47
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 65.90
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Papaya
All
Papayas
Papaya
Higher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 45.65
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Plums
All
Plums
Plums
Higher than the LD50 0.00Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 46.15
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Snap Peas
All
Snap Peas
Snap PeasHigher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 99.94
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 98.10
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 43.08
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
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2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Spinach, Canned
All
Spinach, Canned
Spinach, CannedHigher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 79.67
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 6.02
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
7/30/2019 An Independent Analysis of the 2011 USDA Pesticide Residue Data
57/60
2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Spinach, Frozen
All
Spinach, Frozen
Spinach, FrozenHigher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 94.43
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 18.16
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
7/30/2019 An Independent Analysis of the 2011 USDA Pesticide Residue Data
58/60
Sweet Bell Peppers 2011 PDP Results(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Sweet Bell Peppers
All
Sweet Bell Peppers
Higher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.04
Less than 1/10th the LD50 99.96
Less than 1/100th the LD50 94.76
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 83.20
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 31.32
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
7/30/2019 An Independent Analysis of the 2011 USDA Pesticide Residue Data
59/60
2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Tangerines
All
Tangerines
Tangerines
Higher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.08
Less than 1/10th the LD50 99.92
Less than 1/100th the LD50 99.44
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 99.44
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 11.30
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
7/30/2019 An Independent Analysis of the 2011 USDA Pesticide Residue Data
60/60
2011 PDP Results
(USDA-AMS Pesticide Detection Program)
0
5
10
15
20
25
20-2-4-6-8-10-12-14-16-18-20
Natural Log of Detection/Oral ALD50
Pe
rcentofDetections
Winter Squash
All
Winter Squash
Winter Squash
Higher than the LD50 0.00
Equal to the LD50 0.00
More than 1/10th the LD50 0.00
Less than 1/10th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/100th the LD50 100.00
Less than 1/1,000th the LD50 96.37
Less than 1/10,000th the LD50 47.18
Percentages
1/101/100
1/1,000
LD50
1/10,000
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