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Time Series LULC

Decrease in agricultural area - increase in urbanization

Cropland degradation

Standardization

Gridded monthly rainfall

Coefficient of variation

Standardization

Gridded monthly Tmax

Coefficient of variation

Standardization

Gridded monthly Tmin

Coefficient of variation

Standardization

Flood inundation

Inundated area X Frequency

Standardization

Expo

sure

Cropping frequency

Single/Double/tripple(Kharif/Rabi/Zaid)

Ranking/Standardization

Soil Datbase

Soil Quality Index

Standardization

Agriculture dependent population

Standardization

Sens

itivi

tyPo

tent

ial I

mpa

ct

Irrigation support

Block wise irrigated area/block area

Standardization

Literacy rate

Standardization

Road Density

Standardization

Adap

tive

Cap

acity

Agr

icul

tura

l Vun

erab

ility

Wei

ghte

d Ar

ithm

atic

Aggr

egat

ion

Wei

ghte

d Ar

ithm

atic

Aggr

egat

ion

Wei

ghte

d Ar

ithm

atic

Aggr

egat

ion

Effects of extream climatic events on Kharif rice production in Odisha Flood Severe Flood Cyclone Severe Cyclone Drought Severe Drought Moisture Stress

PURI

KHORDHA

BHADRAK

KENDRAPARA

JAGATSINGHPUR

Puri

Khurda

Cuttack

Bhadrak

Balasore

Berhampur

Bhubaneswar

Jagatsinghapur

Population (2011)< 200000

200001 - 400000

400001 - 600000

600001 - 800000

> 800000

5 m contour

Chilka

Mahanadi R.

B AY

OF

BE

NG

AL

District boundary

0 50 10025 Kilometers

VulnerabilityVery Low

Low

Medium

High

Very High

0 25 5012.5 Km

Adaptive Capacity0.00 - 0.20

0.21 - 0.40

0.41 - 0.60

0.61 - 0.80

0.81 - 1.000 25 5012.5 Kilometers

Low

High

Sensitivity0.00 - 0.20

0.21 - 0.40

0.41 - 0.60

0.61 - 0.80

0.81 - 1.000 25 5012.5 Kilometers

Low

High

Exposure0.00 - 0.20

0.21 - 0.40

0.41 - 0.60

0.61 - 0.80

0.81 - 1.000 25 5012.5 Kilometers

Low

High

Agricultural vulnerability to climate change is the function of characteristics of climate variability, magnitude, and rate of variation within the agricultural system, and the systems sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and it is the degree to which the agricultural system is susceptible to, or unable to cope with adverse effects of climate change including climatic variability and extreme events.

The objective of the study was to assess the agricultural vulnerability of the Mahanadi Delta with respect to climate change.

Extent 85o40'E 86o45'E20o35'N

19o40'N

Five districts have been taken based on the intersection of bebelow 5 m elevation zone

Mahanadi Delta is one of the largest deltas on the east coast of India.

Climate: Tropical with hot humid monsoon

Population: Around 6 million (2011)

Legend

V

V=f(E,S,AC) AR4, IPCC, 2007

V=(E-AC) x SV=Agricultural VulnerabilityE=ExposureAC=Adaptive CapacityS=Sensitivity

Flood plays major role in agricultural vulnerability of the Delta.Proper flood management may reduce the susceptibility of agriculture to vulnerability.

The most vulnerable block has been assed to be Delanga followed by Pipili and Astaranga block. Bhubneswar has been assed to be one of the least vulnerable block of the Delta

This work was carried out under the Collaborative

Adaptation Research Initiative in Africa and Asia

(CARIAA), with financial support from the UK

Governments Department for International

Development (DFiD) and the International

Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada. The views expressed in

this work are those of the creators and do no

necessarily represent those of DFiD and IDRC or

its Board of Governors. www.deccma.com

D E C C M A

Amit Ghosh & Sudipa PalSchool of Oceanographic Studies, Jadavpur University 4th Consortium Workshop, January 2016