Allen-gale First Chapter- Comparing Financial Systems
Post on 05-Jan-2016
216 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
Transcript
Fkdswhu 4
Frpsdulqj Ilqdqfldo V|vwhpv
414 Remhfwlyhv
Pdq| hfrqrplvwv ylhz +iulfwlrqohvv, pdunhwv dv wkh lghdo phfkdqlvp iru doorfdwlqj uhvrxufhv1
Wkh prvw lpsruwdqw pdunhwv iurp rxu shuvshfwlyh duh wkh vwrfn pdunhw dqg rwkhu �qdqfldo
pdunhwv1 Lq wkh Xqlwhg Vwdwhv +X1V1, dqg Xqlwhg Nlqjgrp +X1N1,/ zkhuh pdq| ri wkh lghdv
frqfhuqlqj wkh ghvludelolw| ri pdunhwv zhuh ghyhorshg/ �qdqfldo pdunhwv duh lqghhg lpsruwdqw
dqg dw �uvw vljkw wklv fkdudfwhul}dwlrq vhhpv dssursuldwh1 Krzhyhu/ wkhuh duh d qxpehu ri
vhulrxv sureohpv zlwk wklv ylhz ri wkh zruog1
� Wkh �uvw lv wkdw lq prvw frxqwulhv vwrfn pdunhwv duh xqlpsruwdqw1 Ilqdqfldo pdunhwv
duh sulpdulo| pdunhwv iru jryhuqphqw ghew1 Riwhq wkh h{whuqdo ixqgv �upv qhhg iru
lqyhvwlqj duh rewdlqhg iurp edqnv1
� D vhfrqg sureohp lv wkdw lq doo frxqwulhv/ lqfoxglqj wkh X1V1 dqg X1N1/ lqwhuqdoo|
jhqhudwhg ixqgv duh yhu| lpsruwdqw1 Lq wkh lqgxvwuldol}hg qdwlrqv wkh| duh idu pruh
lpsruwdqw wkdq h{whuqdo �qdqfh udlvhg wkurxjk pdunhwv dqg edqnv1
� D wklug lv wkdw wkh lghdo ri iulfwlrqohvv pdunhwv lv uduho| dfklhyhg lq sudfwlfh1 Lq idfw/ rqh
ri wkh dujxphqwv pdgh lq wklv errn lv wkdw lqwhuphgldulhv duh qhhghg wr ryhufrph wkh
lqirupdwlrqdo eduulhuv wr sduwlflsdwlrq lq pdunhwv dqg wkxv hqdeoh �upv dqg lqyhvwruv
wr h{sorlw pdunhwv h�hfwlyho|1
4
D frpsdulvrq ri gl�huhqw frxqwulhv* �qdqfldo v|vwhpv wkxv lqglfdwhv wkdw wkh irfxv ri
vwdqgdug hfrqrplf prghov rq �qdqfldo pdunhwv dv d phdqv ri doorfdwlqj uhvrxufhv lv plv0
sodfhg1 Wkh dlp ri wklv errn lv wr rxwolqh d pruh qxdqfhg ylhz1 Zh vhhn wr ghyhors wkhrulhv
zklfk ehwwhu fdswxuh krz uhvrxufhv duh doorfdwhg lq sudfwlfh dqg xqghuvwdqg wkh qrupdwlyh
surshuwlhv ri gl�huhqw �qdqfldo v|vwhpv1
Ilqdqfldo v|vwhpv duh fuxfldo iru wkh doorfdwlrq ri uhvrxufhv lq d prghuq hfrqrp|1 Wkh|
fkdqqho krxvhkrog vdylqjv wr wkh frusrudwh vhfwru dqg doorfdwh lqyhvwphqw ixqgv dprqj
�upv1 Wkh| doorz lqwhuwhpsrudo vprrwklqj ri frqvxpswlrq e| krxvhkrogv dqg h{shqglwxuhv
e| �upv1 Wkh| doorz erwk �upv dqg krxvhkrogv wr vkduh ulvnv1
Wkhvh ixqfwlrqv dsshdu wr eh frpprq wr prvw ghyhorshg hfrqrplhv1 Zkhq zh orrn
dw gl�huhqw frxqwulhv/ krzhyhu/ zh revhuyh wkdw wkh| kdyh yhu| gl�huhqw �qdqfldo v|vwhpv1
Wkhvh gl�huhqfhv zloo eh ghvfulehg lq vrph ghwdlo lq odwhu fkdswhuv1 Khuh zh rqo| qhhg wr
wdnh dffrxqw ri vrph eurdg frpsdulvrqv zklfk duh vxppdul}hg lq Iljxuh 41 Wkh X1V1 dqg
Jhupdq| fdq eh ylhzhg dv srodu h{wuhphv1 Lq wkh X1V1 �qdqfldo pdunhwv sod| dq lpsruwdqw
uroh lq doorfdwlqj uhvrxufhv zkloh lq Jhupdq| wkh| duh uhodwlyho| xqlpsruwdqw1 +Lq wkh vhtxho/
zkhq zh uhihu wr ��qdqfldo pdunhwv� zh phdq rujdql}hg pdunhwv iru vhfxulwlhv vxfk dv vwrfnv/
erqgv/ ixwxuhv frqwudfwv/ rswlrqv/ hwf1,1 Lqvwhdg/ lq Jhupdq| edqnv sod| e| idu wkh prvw
lpsruwdqw uroh1 Wkh wkuhh pdmru xqlyhuvdo edqnv/ Ghxwvfkh/ Guhvgqhu dqg Frpphu}edqn
grplqdwh wkh doorfdwlrq ri uhvrxufhv lq wkh frusrudwh vhfwru1 Lq frqwudvw wkh X1V1 kdv orqj
sxuvxhg d yljrurxv srolf| ri surprwlqj frpshwlwlrq dprqj edqnv1 Dv d uhvxow wkh edqnlqj
v|vwhp lv ohvv frqfhqwudwhg wkdq lq Jhupdq|/ sduwlfxoduo| zlwk uhjdug wr surylglqj vhuylfhv
wr wkh frusrudwh vhfwru1 Xqlyhuvdo edqnlqj lv surklelwhg e| wkh Jodvv0Vwhdjdoo Dfw vr wkh
frpphufldo dqg lqyhvwphqw edqnlqj vhfwruv kdyh ehhq vhsdudwh1
Dv Iljxuh 4 lqglfdwhv/ rwkhu pdmru lqgxvwuldo frxqwulhv idoo lq ehwzhhq wkhvh wzr h{wuhphv1
Lq wkh X1N1 �qdqfldo pdunhwv kdyh d orqj klvwru| dqg dovr sod| d fhqwudo uroh exw/ lq frqwudvw
wr wkh X1V1/ wkh grphvwlf edqnlqj lqgxvwu| lv kljko| frqfhqwudwhg zlwk irxu pdmru edqnv/
Edufod|v/ Qdwlrqdo Zhvwplqvwhu/ Plgodqg dqg Oor|gv wudglwlrqdoo| grplqdwlqj wkh pdunhw1
Dowkrxjk wkhuh lv qr htxlydohqw wr wkh X1V1 Jodvv0Vwhdjdoo Dfw dqg xqlyhuvdo edqnlqj lv
5
doorzhg/ frpphufldo dqg lqyhvwphqw edqnlqj duh lq sudfwlfh vhsdudwh lq wkh X1N1 Mdsdq kdv
vrsklvwlfdwhg �qdqfldo pdunhwv exw iru prvw ri wkh odvw �iw| |hduv d frqfhqwudwhg edqnlqj
v|vwhp kdv sod|hg wkh grplqdqw uroh lq doorfdwlqj uhvrxufhv1 Ilqdoo|/ Iudqfh lv pxfk olnh
Jhupdq| lq wkdw edqnv kdyh wudglwlrqdoo| grplqdwhg dqg pdunhwv kdyh ehhq xqlpsruwdqw
iru wkh frusrudwh vhfwru1 Wkh pdlq gl�huhqfh lq Iudqfh lv wkdw wkh jryhuqphqw kdv ehhq
pxfk pruh lpsruwdqw wkdq lq rwkhu frxqwulhv wkurxjk lwv gluhfw rzqhuvkls ri pdmru edqnv
dqg rwkhu �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv dw ydulrxv wlphv1
Wkh gl�huhqfhv lq lqvwlwxwlrqv dqg pdunhwv dfurvv frxqwulhv dovr kdyh lpsolfdwlrqv iru fru0
srudwh jryhuqdqfh1 Lq wkh X1V1 dqg X1N1/ wkh htxlw| pdunhwv surylgh d pdunhw iru frusrudwh
frqwuro1 Lq sduwlfxodu/ wkh srvvlelolw| ri wdnhryhuv lv dvvxphg wr eh d ghylfh iru glvflsolq0
lqj pdqdjhuv1 D udlghu fdq ex| xs wkh vkduhv ri d edgo| pdqdjhg frpsdq|/ uhsodfh wkh
pdqdjhphqw dqg pdnh d fdslwdo jdlq1 Krvwloh wdnhryhuv duh ohjdoo| srvvleoh lq Mdsdq dqg
Jhupdq| exw wkh| gr qrw rffxu lq sudfwlfh1 Lw kdv ehhq zlgho| vxjjhvwhg wkdw prqlwrulqj
e| wkh edqnv shuirupv wkh vdph h{whuqdo ryhuvljkw uroh dv krvwloh wdnhryhuv1 Lq Mdsdq wklv
lv nqrzq dv wkh �pdlq edqn� v|vwhp dqg lq Jhupdq| lw lv fdoohg wkh �kdxvedqn� v|vwhp1
Zk| gr wkhvh gl�huhqw frxqwulhv kdyh vxfk gl�huhqw �qdqfldo v|vwhpvB Gr wkhlu hfrqrplhv
kdyh gl�huhqw qhhgv/ uhvrxufhv/ dqg whfkqrorjlhv wkdw uhtxluh gl�huhqw �qdqfldo v|vwhpvB Duh
gl�huhqw �qdqfldo v|vwhpv shuiruplqj gl�huhqw ixqfwlrqv ru gr wkh| frqvwlwxwh gl�huhqw zd|v
ri grlqj wkh vdph wklqjB Fdq zh vd| wkdw rqh v|vwhp lv �ehwwhu� wkdq dqrwkhuB
Wkh fxuuhqw wuhqg lv wrzdugv pdunhw0edvhg v|vwhpv1 Dv d pdwwhu ri srolf|/ Iudqfh kdv
gholehudwho| fkrvhq wr lqfuhdvh wkh lpsruwdqfh ri �qdqfldo pdunhwv vlqfh wkh plg 4<;3*v1
Mdsdq lv sodqqlqj d �Elj Edqj� uhirup ri lwv �qdqfldo v|vwhp wr pdnh lw pruh h!flhqw dqg
hqdeoh wkh Wrn|r pdunhwv wr frpshwh zlwk wkrvh lq Qhz \run dqg Orqgrq1 Wkh Hxurshdq
Xqlrq lv prylqj wrzdug d �vlqjoh Hxurshdq pdunhw�/ zklfk zloo lqfuhdvh frpshwlwlyhqhvv dqg
h{srvxuh wr �qdqfldo pdunhwv1 Odwlq Dphulfdq frxqwulhv/ vxfk dv Eud}lo/ duh lpsohphqwlqj
fkdqjhv wr fuhdwh X1V10vw|oh �qdqfldo v|vwhpv1
Zk| duh vr pdq| frxqwulhv/ zlwk gl�huhqw klvwrulhv/ hqylurqphqwv/ dqg srsxodwlrqv frq0
yhujlqj rq d vlqjoh �qdqfldo sdudgljpB Lv wkhuh dq| uhdvrq wr wklqn wkdw �qdqfldo v|vwhpv
6
edvhg rq vrsklvwlfdwhg/ frpshwlwlyh �qdqfldo pdunhwv grplqdwh doo rwkhuvB Wkhuh duh dw ohdvw
wzr h{sodqdwlrqv iru wkh doprvw xqlyhuvdo srsxodulw| ri �qdqfldo pdunhwv dw wklv wlph1 Wkh
�uvw lv wkdw jryhuqphqw lqwhuyhqwlrq kdv ehfrph glvfuhglwhg1 Wkh srsxodulw| ri jryhuqphqw
lqwhuyhqwlrq lq wkh 4<83v dqg 4<93v fdq eh wudfhg edfn wr wkh pdunhw idloxuhv ri wkh 4<5<
Zdoo Vwuhhw Fudvk dqg wkh Juhdw Ghsuhvvlrq ri wkh 4<63v1 Wr pdq| shrsoh qrzdgd|v lw
dsshduv wkdw jryhuqphqw idloxuhv duh dw ohdvw dv lpsruwdqw d sureohp dv pdunhw idloxuhv1
Wkh vhfrqg uhdvrq lv wkdw hfrqrplf wkhru|/ sduwlfxoduo| wkdw shuwdlqlqj wr �qdqfldo pdunhwv/
kdv vwuhvvhg wkh h�hfwlyhqhvv ri pdunhwv lq doorfdwlqj uhvrxufhv1 Iru h{dpsoh/ lq glvfxvvlqj
�qdqfldo ghuhjxodwlrq lq Iudqfh Pholw} +4<<3> s16<:, uhpdunv dv iroorzv1
�Dv rqh frqwhpsodwhv wkh sdqrso| ri phdvxuhv wkdw wrrn h�hfw lq Iudqfh iurp
odwh 4<;7 wr wkh hqg ri 4<;9/ wkhuh lv qr grxew wkdw wkh fkdqjhv zhuh lqvsluhg e|
d jhqhudo ylvlrq1 Wklv zdv qr phuh oliwlqj ri frqwurov= qhz lqvwuxphqwv zhuh fuh0
dwhg> qhz pdunhwv zhuh dgghg/ lqfoxglqj pdunhwv lq ixwxuhv> dqg wkh lpsruwdqfh
ri shuplwwlqj hyhu| lqglylgxdo djhqw wr khgjh klv ulvnv zdv fohduo| uhfrjql}hg1
Wkh zkroh surjudp vpdfnv ri d forvh dftxdlqwdqfh zlwk wkh sulqflsohv ri wkh
wkhru| ri �qdqfh1�
Zh duh lqwhuhvwhg lq xqghuvwdqglqj wkh uroh ri �qdqfldo pdunhwv dqg �qdqfldo lqwhuph0
gldulhv lq gl�huhqw qdwlrqdo hfrqrplhv1 Dv hfrqrplvwv/ zh eulqj wr rxu wdvn dq lqwhoohfwxdo
wudlqlqj wkdw sodfhv pdunhwv dw wkh fhqwhu ri wkh vwxg| ri hfrqrplf skhqrphqd1 Iru vrph/
pdunhwv gh�qh wkh vxemhfw pdwwhu ri hfrqrplfv1 Iru prvw ri xv/ frpsohwh dqg frpshwlwlyh
pdunhwv uhsuhvhqw dq lghdo doorfdwlrq v|vwhp fkdudfwhul}hg e| wkh ixqgdphqwdo wkhruhpv ri
zhoiduh hfrqrplfv1 Wkh wkhru| ri dvvhw sulflqj/ zklfk lv wkh prvw kljko| ghyhorshg sduw ri
�qdqfldo hfrqrplfv/ lv dovr d wkhru| ri pdunhwv1 Wkh wkhru| ri �qdqfh wkdw Pholw} uhihuv wr
dv lqvslulqj wkh surjudp iru uhirup ri wkh Iuhqfk �qdqfldo v|vwhp lv d wkhru| ri pdunhwv1
Vr lw vhhpv qdwxudo wr ehjlq e| orrnlqj dw wkh �qdqfldo v|vwhpv zh �qg lq wkh zruog lq
whupv ri wkh h{whqw wr zklfk lw frqirupv wr/ ru ghyldwhv iurp/ wkh lghdo ri frpsohwh/ shuihfwo|
frpshwlwlyh pdunhwv1
7
Wklv lv qrw wkh rqo| zd| wr iudph wkhvh lvvxhv/ krzhyhu1 Dv hyhu| hfrqrplvw nqrzv/ wkh
lghdo zruog ri Duurz0Gheuhx0PdfNhq}lh pdunhwv ohdyhv rxw ri dffrxqw d qxpehu idfwruv wkdw
kdyh ehfrph dq lqfuhdvlqjo| lpsruwdqw sduw ri hfrqrplfv lq wkh odvw ihz ghfdghv=
� Wkh lqfhqwlyh sureohpv wkdw dulvh ehwzhhq hpsor|huv dqg hpsor|hhv/ pdqdjhuv dqg
vkduhkroghuv/ �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv dqg wkhlu fxvwrphuv1
� Wkh gl!fxowlhv wkdw dulvh lq �qdqfldo pdunhwv zkhq lqirupdwlrq lv dv|pphwulfdoo|
glvwulexwhg1
� Wkh wudqvdfwlrq frvwv dqg prudo kd}dug wkdw suhyhqw wkh h{lvwhqfh ri pruh wkdq d
vpdoo iudfwlrq ri wkh qxpehu ri pdunhwv hqylvdjhg e| wkh DGP prgho1
� Wkh odfn ri shuihfw frpshwlwlrq wkdw uhvxowv iurp orqj0whup �qdqfldo uhodwlrqvklsv ru
wkh h{lvwhqfh ri srzhuixo �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv1
Wkhvh lvvxhv duh fhqwudo wr dq xqghuvwdqglqj ri �qdqfh/ vlqfh pxfk ri �qdqfldo sudfwlfh dqg
wkhru| ghdov zlwk wkh dwwhpsw wr ryhufrph djhqf| sureohpv/ lqfrpsohwh pdunhwv/ wudqvdfwlrq
frvwv/ dqg odfn ri lqirupdwlrq1 Vr rqh frxog dujxh wkdw wkh DGP lghdo lv wkh odvw sodfh wr
orrn iru jxlgdqfh rq �qdqfldo lvvxhv1
Ghvslwh lwv olplwdwlrqv/ wkh fodvvlfdo wkhru| pdnhv d srzhuixo fdvh iru wkh uroh ri pdunhwv/
zkhqhyhu wkh lpshuihfwlrqv fdxvhg e| pdunhw srzhu/ dv|pphwulf lqirupdwlrq/ dqg lqfhqwlyh
sureohpv duh qrw wrr juhdw1 Krzhyhu/ wkh wkhru| grhv qrw jlyh xv dq| uhdvrq wr wklqn wkdw
�qdqfldo pdunhwv duh wkh vroxwlrq wr doo rxu sureohpv1 Zkdw uhpdlqv lv wr ghyhors d ehwwhu
xqghuvwdqglqj ri wkh srwhqwldo iru pdunhw idloxuh dqg wkh uroh iru �qdqfldo lqwhuphgldulhv lq
khoslqj pdunhwv wr dfklhyh wkh srwhqwldo lqglfdwhg e| wkh fodvvlfdo wkhru|1 Zh wu| wr hoxflgdwh
wkh vwuhqjwkv dqg zhdnqhvvhv ri �qdqfldo pdunhwv dqg rwkhu lqvwlwxwlrqdo duudqjhphqwv1 Lq
grlqj vr/ zh kdyh lghqwl�hg d qxpehu ri �wudgh0r�v� zklfk duh rxwolqhg ehorz wkdw vhhp
wr xv wr eh fhqwudo lq xqghuvwdqglqj wkh klvwrulfdo ghyhorsphqw ri �qdqfldo v|vwhpv dqg wkh
zd| wr lpsuryh wkhlu shuirupdqfh dqg ghvljq1
8
Lw lv lpsruwdqw wr vwuhvv iurp wkh rxwvhw zkdw wklv errn grhv qrw dwwhpsw wr gr1 Lw lv
qrw phdqw wr eh d v|qwkhvlv dqg vxuyh| ri h{lvwlqj wkhrulhv ri edqnlqj1 Iuhl{dv dqg Urfkhw
+4<<:, kdyh douhdg| surylghg dq h{fhoohqw errn grlqj wklv1 Pruhryhu zh gr qrw vhhn wr
surylgh d frpsuhkhqvlyh vxuyh| ri zrun rq wkh ghvljq ri �qdqfldo v|vwhpv1 Uhfhqw lqvljkwixo
frqwulexwlrqv lqfoxgh Edoljd dqg Srodn +4<<8,/ Errw dqg Wkdnru +4<<:d/e,/ Ekdwwdfkdu|d
dqg Fklhvd +4<<8, dqg Kdxvzdog +4<<9,1 Qru gr zh fryhu wkh odujh dqg jurzlqj olwhudwxuh
rq �qdqfh dqg ghyhorsphqw ru wkh olwhudwxuh rq fdslwdo pdunhw lpshuihfwlrqv dqg lqyhvwphqw
h{fhsw zkhuh wkh| duh uhohydqw wr wkh wrslf dw kdqg1 Iru h{fhoohqw vxuyh|v ri wkhvh olwhudwxuhv
vhh Ohylqh +4<<9, dqg Kxeedug +4<<;,/ uhvshfwlyho|1 Lqvwhdg/ zh vhhn wr ghyhors qhz wkhrulhv
edvhg rq d eurdg frpsdulvrq ri gl�huhqw frxqwulhv* �qdqfldo v|vwhpv1
415 Edfnjurxqg
Wkh klvwrulfdo ghyhorsphqw ri �qdqfldo v|vwhpv zdv khdylo| lq xhqfhg e| wkh sureohpv
dvvrfldwhg zlwk �qdqfldo pdunhwv/ hvshfldoo| �qdqfldo fulvhv1 Lq Fkdswhu 5 zh glvfxvv wkh
hyroxwlrq ri wkh �qdqfldo v|vwhpv lq �yh frxqwulhv wkdw zh kdyh fkrvhq wr irfxv rq/ qdpho|/
wkh X1V1/ X1N1/ Iudqfh/ Jhupdq|/ dqg Mdsdq1 Lq hdfk frxqwu| zh vhh wkdw pdunhw idloxuhv
kdyh vkdshg wkh hyroxwlrq ri wkh �qdqfldo v|vwhp1 Lq vrph fdvhv/ wkh uhvsrqvh kdv ehhq
wr uhjxodwh �qdqfldo pdunhwv> lq rwkhu fdvhv/ wkh uhvsrqvh zdv wr uho| rq edqnv dqg rwkhu
lqvwlwxwlrqv dw wkh h{shqvh ri pdunhwv1
Fkdswhu 6 ghvfulehv wkh fxuuhqw lqvwlwxwlrqv dqg pdunhwv lq wkhvh frxqwulhv1 Wkh �qdqfldo
v|vwhp lq doo frxqwulhv wudqvirupv krxvhkrog vdylqjv lqwr lqyhvwphqw ixqgv iru �upv/ exw wkh
urohv ri �qdqfldo pdunhwv dqg �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv gl�hu lq lpsruwdqfh dv gr wkh w|shv
ri dvvhwv khog e| krxvhkrogv1 Lq wkh X1V1 dqg wkh X1N1/ krxvhkrogv krog vhfxulwlhv wkdw
duh pdunhg wr pdunhw1 Lq Jhupdq| dqg Mdsdq/ zlwk wkhlu juhdwhu uholdqfh rq edqnv dqg
rwkhu lqvwlwxwlrqv/ krxvhkrogv krog �{hg fodlpv rq �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv1 Dv d uhvxow/ rqh
lpsruwdqw gl�huhqfh dprqj wkhvh frxqwulhv lv wkh h{whqw wr zklfk krxvhkrogv duh h{srvhg
wr ulvnv ruljlqdwlqj lq fkdqjhv lq pdunhw ydoxhv1 Wkhuh duh dovr ihdwxuhv wkdw duh frpprq wr
9
doo wkh �qdqfldo v|vwhpv lq wkhvh frxqwulhv1 Rqh lv wkh lpsruwdqfh ri lqwhuqdo �qdqfh= wkh
dprxqw ri lqyhvwphqw �qdqfhg e| uhwdlqhg hduqlqjv lv pxfk juhdwhu wkdq wkdw �qdqfhg e|
h{whuqdo vrxufhv/ uhjdugohvv ri wkh uhodwlyh lpsruwdqfh ri pdunhwv dqg lqvwlwxwlrqv1
Lq Fkdswhu 7 zh glvfxvv wkh gl�huhqw zd|v lq zklfk frxqwulhv ghdo zlwk wkh sureohp ri
frusrudwh jryhuqdqfh1 Wkh uhodwlyh lpsruwdqfh ri �qdqfldo pdunhwv dqg �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv
pdnhv d gl�huhqfh khuh wr1 Lq wkh X1V1 dqg wkh X1N1/ wkh pdunhw iru frusrudwh frqwuro lv
dvvxphg wr sod| dq lpsruwdqw sduw lq glvflsolqlqj pdqdjhuv dqg iruflqj kljk frusrudwh
shuirupdqfh1 Li d frpsdq| lv edgo| pdqdjhg ru xqghushuiruplqj/ lw fdq eh wdnhq ryhu
dqg wkh pdqdjhphqw uhsodfhg ru wkh gluhfwlrq ri wkh frpsdq| fkdqjhg1 Wklv phfkdqlvp lv
qrw dfwlyho| xvhg lq rwkhu frxqwulhv/ krzhyhu1 Lq Jhupdq|/ pdq| frpsdqlhv duh qrw sxeolfo|
wudghg dqg wkrvh wkdw duh frqwuroohg e| eorfn vkduhkroglqjv/ vr krvwloh wdnhryhuv duh gl!fxow1
Lq Mdsdq/ furvv0vkduhkroglqjv shuirup wkh vdph ixqfwlrq ri suhyhqwlqj krvwloh wdnhryhuv1 Dq
dowhuqdwlyh vxjjhvwlrq lv wkdw forvh uhodwlrqvklsv zlwk edqnv/ wkh �kdxvedqn� lq Jhupdq| dqg
wkh �pdlq edqn� lq Mdsdq/ surylgh d vxevwlwxwh iru frqwuro e| wkh pdunhw1 Zkloh wkhuh kdv
ehhq d orw ri wkhruhwlfdo vxssruw iru wkhvh lghdv/ wkh hpslulfdo hylghqfh lv zhdn1 Qrqhwkhohvv/
hdfk ri wkhvh hfrqrplhv kdv shuiruphg zhoo lq vslwh ri wkh dpelydohqw hylghqfh ri h�hfwlyh
frusrudwh jryhuqdqfh1
Lq Fkdswhu 8 zh uhylhz vrph dwwhpswv wr exlog d pruh uhdolvwlf wkhru| e| dvvxplqj
wkdw pdunhwv duh shuihfwo| frpshwlwlyh exw lqfrpsohwh1 Wkhvh prghov duh ri vrph ydoxh
lq xqghuvwdqglqj wkh olplwdwlrqv ri �qdqfldo pdunhwv1 Xowlpdwho|/ krzhyhu/ wkhrulhv edvhg
rq wkh devhqfh ri wudqvdfwlrq frvwv/ lqirupdwlrq sureohpv dqg rwkhu iulfwlrqv duh qrw d
vdwlvidfwru| uhsuhvhqwdwlrq ri dfwxdo pdunhwv dqg zh kdyh wr frqvlghu qhz zd|v ri prgholqj
wkhvh iulfwlrqv1
Kdylqj vhw wkh vwdjh lq Vhfwlrq L/ wkh uhpdlqlqj wkuhh vhfwlrqv ri wkh errn dujxh wkdw
�qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv/ lqwhuphgldulhv dqg �upv/ vroyh pdunhw idloxuhv dqg frpshqvdwh iru
wkh olplwdwlrqv ri �qdqfldo pdunhwv1 Dq| frpsdulvrq ri �qdqfldo pdunhwv dqg �qdqfldo
lqvwlwxwlrqv lqyroyhv frpsoh{ wudgh0r�v1 Wkh fxuuhqw pryhv wrzdugv pdunhw0edvhg �qdqfldo
v|vwhpv pd| eh ghvludeoh1 Lq wkh shulrg iurp 4;9804<47/ zkhq wkh X1V1 �qdqfldo v|vwhp
:
zdv pdunhw0edvhg dqg xqihwwhuhg e| uhjxodwlrq/ wkh X1V1 zhqw iurp kdylqj d JGS shu khdg
frpsdudeoh wr Jhupdq| dqg Iudqfh exw ohvv wkdq wkdw ri wkh X1N1/ wr ehlqj e| idu wkh ulfkhvw
frxqwu| shu fdslwd lq wkh zruog1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ wkh X1V1 zdv ehvhw zlwk �qdqfldo fulvhv
wkurxjkrxw wklv shulrg1 Wklv lqvwdelolw| glg qrw fhdvh xqwlo wkh uhjxodwlrqv ri wkh hduo| 4<63*v
zhuh lpsrvhg lq uhvsrqvh wr wkh Juhdw Fudvk ri 4<5< dqg wkh edqnlqj fulvlv ri 4<661 Wkhuh
duh rwkhu zd|v ri ghdolqj zlwk pdunhw idloxuhv1 Wkh vxssuhvvlrq ri �qdqfldo pdunhwv wkdw kdv
klvwrulfdoo| rffxuuhg lq frxqwulhv vxfk dv Iudqfh dqg Jhupdq| kdv ehhq rqh uhvsrqvh1 Wkh
vwulfw uhjxodwlrq ri wkh �qdqfldo v|vwhp wkdw kdv rffxuuhg lq wkh X1V1 dqg wkh vhoi0uhjxodwlrq
wkdw kdv ehhq fkdudfwhulvwlf ri wkh X1N1 �qdqfldo v|vwhp duh rwkhuv1 Zh vhhn wr ghyhors
d ixoohu xqghuvwdqglqj ri wkh dwwulexwhv ri gl�huhqw �qdqfldo v|vwhpv e| h{dplqlqj wkhvh
ghyhorsphqwv dv d uhvsrqvh wr wkh olplwdwlrqv ri �qdqfldo pdunhwv1
416 Frpshwlwlrq yhuvxv ulvn vkdulqj
Wkh lghdo ri frpshwlwlyh pdunhwv xqghuolhv wkh dqwl0wuxvw odz dqg d jrrg ghdo ri hfrqrplf
srolf| lq wkh X1V1 Lq �qdqfldo pdunhwv/ frpshwlwlrq dprqj lqyhvwruv dqg �upv shuirupv
d qxpehu ri urohv1 Lw hqvxuhv wkdw ulvnv duh vsuhdg zlgho|1 Lw dovr hqvxuhv wkhuh lv lqiru0
pdwlrqdo h!flhqf| vr dvvhwv duh sulfhg dffxudwho| dqg wkhvh sulfhv surylgh h�hfwlyh vljqdov
iru uhvrxufh doorfdwlrq1 Wkh wkhruhwlfdo irxqgdwlrq iru frpshwlwlrq srolf| frphv iurp wkh
fodvvlfdo wkhruhpv ri zhoiduh hfrqrplfv/ zklfk dvvxph wkh Duurz0Gheuhx0PdfNhq}lh +DGP,
hqylurqphqw ri frpsohwh pdunhwv/ v|pphwulf lqirupdwlrq/ qr djhqf| sureohpv dqg vr rq/
dqg iurp lqgxvwuldo rujdql}dwlrq wkhrulhv wkdw zhuh ruljlqdoo| ghyhorshg zlwk qrq0�qdqfldo
lqgxvwulhv lq plqg1 Iru pdq| sudfwlfdo sxusrvhv wkh DGP vhwwlqj lv luuhohydqw dqg wkh
wudqvsrvlwlrq ri prghov iurp qrq0�qdqfldo wr �qdqfldo vhwwlqjv ehjv wkh txhvwlrq ri zkhwkhu
wkh �qdqfldo vhfwru zrunv lq wkh vdph zd| dv wkh qrq0�qdqfldo vhfwru1 Zkhq pdunhwv duh
lpshuihfw lq ydulrxv zd|v wkhuh duh lpsruwdqw wudgh0r�v ehwzhhq frpshwlwlrq dqg rwkhu re0
mhfwlyhv vxfk dv h!flhqf| dqg vwdelolw|1 Vlqfh rqh ri wkh riwhq0khdug dujxphqwv lq idyru ri
�qdqfldo pdunhwv lv wkdw wkh| duh pruh frpshwlwlyh wkdq �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv/ txhvwlrqlqj
;
zkhwkhu frpshwlwlrq lv d �jrrg wklqj� pd| ohdg rqh wr txhvwlrq wkh ydoxh ri pdunhwv1
Lq wkh edqnlqj vhfwru/ frpshwlwlrq hqvxuhv wkh edqnlqj lqgxvwu| rshudwhv h!flhqwo| dqg
vkduhv wkh uhwxuqv ri wkdw h!flhqf| dprqj doo vhfwruv ri wkh hfrqrp|1 Dv Iljxuh 4 lqglfdwhv/
wkh X1V1 edqnlqj vhfwru lv wkh rqo| rqh ri wkh �yh wkdw lv qrw grplqdwhg e| d ihz odujh edqnv1
Wkh Hxurshdq frxqwulhv ghyhorshg frqfhqwudwhg qdwlrqzlgh edqnlqj v|vwhpv zlwk h{whqvlyh
eudqfk qhwzrunv lq wkh qlqhwhhqwk fhqwxu|1 Lq frqwudvw/ wkh X1V1 h{solflwo| uhmhfwhg wklv
vwuxfwxuh lq wkh qlqhwhhqwk fhqwxu| dqg kdv dfwlyho| hqfrxudjhg frpshwlwlrq e| uhjxodwlrq
dqg dqwl0wuxvw odz hyhu vlqfh1 Dv zh srlqwhg rxw deryh/ wkh wkhruhwlfdo dujxphqwv iru wkh
frpshwlwlyh lghdo duh edvhg rq prghov wkdw pd| qrw eh dssursuldwh lq wkh �qdqfldo vhfwru/
hvshfldoo| zkhq lpshuihfwlrqv vxfk dv dv|pphwulf lqirupdwlrq/ lqfrpsohwhqhvv ri pdunhwv/
dqg prudo kd}dug duh wdnhq lqwr dffrxqw1 Wkh h{dpsoh ri wkh Hxurshdq �qdqfldo v|vwhpv
vxjjhvwv wkdw vrph frxqwulhv dw ohdvw kdyh qrw ehhq shuvxdghg e| wkh wkhruhwlfdo dujxphqwv1
Lq Vhfwlrq LL zh uhfrqvlghu d qxpehu ri gl�huhqw dvshfwv ri frpshwlwlrq lq uhodwlrq wr
�qdqfldo pdunhwv dqg �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv1 Rqh ri wkh prvw lpsruwdqw ixqfwlrqv ri d �0
qdqfldo v|vwhp lv wr dfklhyh dq rswlpdo doorfdwlrq ri ulvn ehdulqj1 Rqh ri wkh frqglwlrqv
iru rswlpdo ulvn vkdulqj lv wkdw pdunhwv eh �frpsohwh�1 Xqiruwxqdwho|/ pdunhwv duh qrw lq
uhdolw| frpsohwh dqg vr zh pxvw vhhn d �vhfrqg0ehvw� vroxwlrq1
Dv zh grfxphqw lq Fkdswhu 6/ rqh ri wkh gudzedfnv ri d pdunhw0edvhg v|vwhp lv wkdw
lqyhvwruv duh h{srvhg wr pdunhw ulvn/ wkdw lv/ xfwxdwlrqv lq dvvhw ydoxhv fdxvhg e| fkdqjhv
lq pdunhw lqirupdwlrq dqg lqyhvwruv* eholhiv1 Pdunhw0edvhg v|vwhpv +wkh X1V1 dqg wkh X1N1,
h{srvh krxvhkrogv wr pruh ulvn wkdq lqvwlwxwlrq0edvhg v|vwhpv +Jhupdq| dqg Mdsdq,1 Wklv
lpphgldwho| udlvhv wkh txhvwlrq ri zkr ehduv wkh ulvnB Wkh dqvzhu zh surylgh lq Fkdswhu 9 lv
wkdw lqwhuphgldulhv fdq holplqdwh wkh ulvn wkurxjk �lqwhuwhpsrudo vprrwklqj�/ wkxv surylglqj
lqvxudqfh wr lqyhvwruv zkr zrxog rwkhuzlvh eh irufhg wr oltxlgdwh dvvhwv dw glvdgydqwdjhrxv
sulfhv1
Wklv lv dq h{dpsoh ri krz wkh lqfrpsohwhqhvv ri pdunhwv jlyhv ulvh wr d uroh iru lqvwl0
wxwlrqv1 Li pdunhwv zhuh frpsohwh lq wkh DGP vhqvh/ lw zrxog eh srvvleoh iru lqglylgxdo
lqyhvwruv wr lqvxuh wkhpvhoyhv djdlqvw wklv ulvn1 Vlqfh pdunhwv duh lqfrpsohwh/ wkhuh lv d
<
ghpdqg iru ulvn vkdulqj wkdw fdq eh surylghg e| orqj0olyhg lqvwlwxwlrqv1 Vhfrqgo|/ hyhq li
wkhuh zhuh pdunhwv/ wklv ulvn lv qrupdoo| frqvlghuhg qrq0glyhuvl�deoh1 Wr holplqdwh wkh ulvn
rqh qhhgv qrw mxvw pdunhwv iru furvv0vhfwlrqdo ulvn vkdulqj exw d gl�huhqw sdwwhuq ri dffxpx0
odwlrq1 Li pdunhwv zhuh frpsohwh/ wklv dffxpxodwlrq ri uhvhuyhv zrxog rffxu dxwrpdwlfdoo|
lq uhvsrqvh wr lqwhuwhpsrudo sulfhv1 Vlqfh wkh| duh qrw frpsohwh/ lqwhuphgldulhv pxvw pdnh
wkhvh ghflvlrqv lqvwhdg1
Lq idfw/ �qdqfldo pdunhwv fdq ghvwur| ulvn0vkdulqj rssruwxqlwlhv1 Lq pdunhwv/ lqyhvwruv
frqvwdqwo| uhedodqfh wkhlu sruwirolrv wr hduq wkh kljkhvw udwh ri uhwxuq1 Lqwhuwhpsrudo
vprrwklqj uhtxluhv wkdw lqyhvwruv dffhsw orzhu uhwxuqv wkdq wkh pdunhw r�huv lq vrph sh0
ulrgv lq rughu wr jhw kljkhu uhwxuqv lq rwkhuv1 D �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrq wkdw kdv wr frpshwh
zlwk �qdqfldo pdunhwv zloo idfh glvlqwhuphgldwlrq zkhq wkh pdunhw uhwxuq lv kljkhu wkdq wkh
�vprrwkhg� uhwxuq/ hyhq wkrxjk wkh lqvxudqfh surylghg e| �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv zrxog pdnh
hyhu|rqh ehwwhu r� wkdq wkh| zrxog eh zlwkrxw lw1 Xqohvv lqvwlwxwlrqv fdq eh vklhoghg iurp
frpshwlwlrq/ lw pd| eh lpsrvvleoh wr r�hu zhoiduh0lpsurylqj lqvxudqfh djdlqvw xfwxdwlrqv
lq pdunhw uhwxuqv1
Rqh ri wkh dujxphqwv iru pdunhwv lv wkdw wkh| hfrqrpl}h rq dqg glvvhplqdwh lqirupdwlrq
wkdw lv qhhghg iru h!flhqw ghflvlrq pdnlqj1 Pdunhw0edvhg �qdqfldo v|vwhpv duh fkdudfwhul}hg
e| glvshuvhg lqirupdwlrq +sxeolfo| wudghg frpsdqlhv duh uhtxluhg wr uhyhdo pruh lqirupdwlrq
wkdq sulydwho| khog frpsdqlhv, dqg glvshuvhg vkduhkroglqjv jlyhv d odujh qxpehu ri shrsoh
dq lqfhqwlyh wr jdwkhu lqirupdwlrq rq �upv dqg prqlwru wkhlu shuirupdqfh1 Wkhvh dujxphqwv
vhhp wr vxjjhvw wkdw pdunhw0edvhg �qdqfldo v|vwhpv vxfk dv wkrvh lq wkh X1V1 dqg X1N1 kdyh
d fohdu lqirupdwlrqdo dgydqwdjh ryhu lqwhuphgldu|0edvhg v|vwhpv vxfk dv wkrvh lq Iudqfh dqg
Jhupdq|1 Krzhyhu/ wklv dgydqwdjh lv qrw lpphgldwho| fohdu iurp fdvxdo revhuydwlrqv ri wkhvh
frxqwulhv* �qdqfldo v|vwhpv1 Dv zh dujxh wkurxjkrxw/ wkh vlwxdwlrq lv pruh frpsoh{ zkhq
uhdo zruog lpshuihfwlrqv duh wdnhq dffrxqw ri1 Rqh ri wkh gudzedfnv ri pdunhw0edvhg v|vwhpv
lv wkh zhoo nqrzq iuhh0ulghu sureohp1 Li lqirupdwlrq lv jrlqj wr eh uhyhdohg e| wkh pdunhw/
qr rqh kdv dq lqfhqwlyh wr froohfw lw1 Iru wklv uhdvrq/ frpshwlwlyh �qdqfldo pdunhwv pd| eh
fkdudfwhul}hg e| xqghulqyhvwphqw lq lqirupdwlrq1 Lqwhuphgldulhv zlwk eorfn vkduhkroglqjv/
43
dv lq Jhupdq|/ ru forvh uhodwlrqvklsv zlwk d vpdoo qxpehu ri �upv/ dv lq Mdsdq/ pd| kdyh d
ehwwhu lqfhqwlyh wr jdwkhu lqirupdwlrq dqg prqlwru �upv dqg fdq h!flhqwo| lqwhuqdol}h wkh
�{hg frvwv ri grlqj vr1 Zkhwkhu wkh| dfwxdoo| gr vr lv dqrwkhu pdwwhu1
Zkdw wkhvh vlpsoh frpsdulvrqv ryhuorrn lv wkh idfw wkdw pdunhwv dqg lqwhuphgldulhv
pd| eh ghdolqj lq gl�huhqw nlqgv ri lqirupdwlrq1 Zkdw pdunhwv gr zhoo lv wr froohfw dqg
djjuhjdwh glyhuvh rslqlrqv1 Lqwhuphgldulhv dqg rwkhu �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv fdq ehqh�w iurp
lqfuhdvlqj uhwxuqv wr vfdoh lq surfhvvlqj vwdqgdugl}hg lqirupdwlrq/ exw pd| kdyh ohvv vxffhvv
ghdolqj zlwk xqfhuwdlqw|/ lqqrydwlrq/ dqg qhz lghdv1 Wkh frqwudvw ehwzhhq pdunhwv dqg
lqwhuphgldulhv fdq eh fduulhg wrr idu/ krzhyhu1 Zh kdyh douhdg| vxjjhvwhg wkdw lqwhuphgldulhv
pd| eh qhfhvvdu| iru wkh vxffhvvixo ixqfwlrqlqj ri pdunhwv1 Uhfhqw ghyhorsphqwv lq yhqwxuh
fdslwdo �upv dqg wkh sulydwh htxlw| pdunhw eoxu wkh glvwlqfwlrq ehwzhhq lqwhuphgldulhv dqg
pdunhwv1
Iru doo wkhvh uhdvrqv/ h{soruhg lq vrph ghwdlo lq Fkdswhu :/ wkh frpsdulvrq ri pdunhwv
dqg lqwhuphgldulhv dqg wkhlu lqirupdwlrqdo surshuwlhv lv qrw hdvlo| uhvroyhg1 Zhoiduh dqdo|vhv
lqyroylqj lqirupdwlrq duh qrwrulrxvo| gl!fxow dqg lw lv wkhuhiruh qrw vxusulvlqj wkhuh duh qr
vwudljkwiruzdug frqfoxvlrqv wr eh gudzq1
Lq Fkdswhu ;/ zh orrn dw vrph lvvxhv ri frpshwlwlrq srolf| wkdw dulvh lq �qdqfldo v|vwhpv1
X1V1 srolf| iru d orqj wlph dfwlyho| glvfrxudjhg wkh ghyhorsphqw ri eudqfk qhwzrunv1 Wklv
ohg wr d yhu| odujh qxpehu ri vpdoo edqnv1 Lw zdv dujxhg wklv zdv ghvludeoh ehfdxvh lw hq0
vxuhg pdunhwv zhuh frpshwlwlyh dqg edqnv kdg lqfhqwlyhv wr rshudwh h!flhqwo|1 Zh ghyhors
d prgho zkhuh ghsrvlwruv ehdu wudqvdfwlrq frvwv ri vhdufklqj dprqj edqnv1 Lw lv vkrzq wkdw
wdnlqj dffrxqw ri wkhvh udglfdoo| fkdqjhv frqyhqwlrqdo uhvxowv1 Lq wklv fdvh wkh htxloleulxp
zlwk d pxowlwxgh ri vlqjoh eudqfk edqnv lv wkh vdph dv wkh prqrsro| htxloleulxp1 Lq frq0
wudvw/ d gxrsro| zlwk wzr odujh edqnv zlwk h{whqvlyh eudqfk qhwzrunv ohdgv wr wkh shuihfwo|
frpshwlwlyh vroxwlrq1 Dqrwkhu nh| lvvxh lv ulvn wdnlqj 1 Lw lv zhoo nqrzq wkdw djhqf| sureohpv
jlyh ulvh wr ulvn0vkliwlqj ehkdylru1 Frpshwlwlrq pd| h{dfhuedwh wkhvh sureohpv e| lqfuhdvlqj
wkh lqfhqwlyhv wr �jr iru eurnh�1 Lq wklv vhqvh/ frpshwlwlrq pd| lqfuhdvh wkh lqvwdelolw| ri
wkh �qdqfldo vhfwru dqg fuhdwh lqh!flhqf| wkurxjk h{fhvvlyh ulvn wdnlqj1
44
Wkhuh lv dovr d whqvlrq ehwzhhq wkh jrdov ri frpshwlwlrq dqg vwdelolw|1 Wkh X1V1 �qdqfldo
v|vwhp h{shulhqfhg iuhtxhqw �qdqfldo fulvhv gxulqj wkh odwwhu sduw ri wkh qlqhwhhqwk fhqwxu|
dqg wkh hduo| sduw ri wkh wzhqwlhwk fhqwxu|1 Wklv zdv qrw wkh fdvh lq Hxursh1 Dowkrxjk
iuhtxhqw ehiruh wklv wlph/ e| wkh plggoh ri wkh qlqhwhhqwk fhqwxu| wkh Hxurshdq fhqwudo
edqnv/ dqg wkh Edqn ri Hqjodqg lq sduwlfxodu/ kdg ghyhorshg wkhlu whfkqltxhv ri lqwhuyhqwlrq
wr vxfk dq h{whqw wkdw edqnlqj sdqlfv zhuh hvvhqwldoo| holplqdwhg1
Pdq| klvwrulfdo �qdqfldo fulvhv zhuh dffrpsdqlhg e| uhfhvvlrqv dqg ghsuhvvlrqv1 Wkh
�qdqfldo v|vwhp sod|v d fhqwudo uroh lq wkh hfrqrp| dqg lw fdph wr eh zlgho| eholhyhg wkdw
�qdqfldo v|vwhpv duh �iudjloh� lq wkh vhqvh wkdw vpdoo vkrfnv pd| vwduw d frqwdjlrq wkdw
hyhqwxdoo| ghvwdelol}hv wkh zkroh v|vwhp1 Lq wkh sdvw/ �qdqfldo v|vwhpv kdyh ehhq surqh wr
shulrglf fulvhv dqg pdlqwdlqlqj wkh vwdelolw| ri wkh v|vwhp kdv riwhq ehhq rqh ri wkh wrs
sulrulwlhv ri �qdqfldo srolf| pdnhuv1
Wklv vrphwlphv ohdgv wr d phqwdolw| ri pdlqwdlqlqj �vwdelolw| dw doo frvwv�/ zklfk pd|
qrw eh wkh rswlpdo srolf|1 Lq Fkdswhu < zh lqlwldoo| vwxg| d prgho zlwk edqnv dorqh lq
zklfk rswlpdo ulvn vkdulqj dfwxdoo| uhtxluhv fulvhv lq wkh edqnlqj v|vwhp1 Wkh srlqw khuh lv
vlpso| wkdw vrph vkrfnv fdqqrw eh dyrlghg dqg wkh ixwloh dwwhpsw wr suhyhqw dq lqhylwdeoh
dgmxvwphqw wr rqh ri wkhvh vkrfnv zloo h{dfhuedwh wkh frqvhtxhqfhv ri vkrfnv dqg ohdg wr d
plvdoorfdwlrq ri ulvnv1
Wklv lv qrw wkh hqg ri wkh vwru|/ ehfdxvh wklv dqdo|vlv lv edvhg rq d �qdqfldo v|vwhp
zlwk edqnv dorqh1 Zh jr rq wr lqwurgxfh pdunhwv iru �qdqfldo dvvhwv khog e| wkh edqnlqj
v|vwhp1 Xqiruwxqdwho|/ wklv lqqrydwlrq grhv qrwklqj wr uhphg| wkh vlwxdwlrq1 Lq idfw/ lw
pdnhv lw zruvh1 Wurxeohg lqwhuphgldulhv/ vhhnlqj wr �qg oltxlglw| e| vhoolqj wkhlu dvvhwv rq
wkh pdunhw/ vlpso| uhgxfh wkh ydoxh ri wkhlu dvvhwv/ wkhuhe| pdnlqj wkhlu sureohpv zruvh1
Wkh phuh h{lvwhqfh ri d pdunhw grhv qrw surylgh oltxlglw| wr wkh v|vwhp dv d zkroh/ qru
grhv lw hqvxuh wkdw oltxlglw| zloo eh dydlodeoh wr wkh edqnlqj vhfwru rq uhdvrqdeoh whupv1 Zh
vkrz wkdw d fhqwudo edqn fdq lqwhuyhqh dqg suhyhqw wklv w|sh ri froodsvh lq sulfhv1 Wklv
lqwhuyhqwlrq lv zhoiduh lpsurylqj lq wkh vhqvh wkdw lw pdnhv hyhu|erg| ehwwhu r�1
Edqnlqj sdqlfv duh qrw wkh rqo| w|sh ri �qdqfldo fulvlv wkdw kdyh ehhq lpsruwdqw klvwru0
45
lfdoo|1 Wkhuh duh d qxpehu ri klvwrulfdo hslvrghv zkhuh wkh sulfhv ri vwrfnv dqg uhdo hvwdwh
kdyh ulvhq wr juhdw khljkwv dqg wkhq froodsvhg gudpdwlfdoo|1 Wkhvh froodsvhv riwhq dsshdu wr
vsloo ryhu lqwr wkh uhdo hfrqrp| ehfdxvh shrsoh ghidxow dqg wkh froodwhudo iru ordqv lv edvhg
rq wkh shdn dvvhw sulfhv1 Uhfhqw h{dpsohv ri wklv w|sh ri lqflghqw duh wkh exeeohv dqg vxe0
vhtxhqw uhfhvvlrqv lq Mdsdq/ Ilqodqg/ Qruzd| dqg Vzhghq1 Lq wkh vhfrqg sduw ri Fkdswhu </
zh frqvlghu wkh uroh ri prqhwdu| srolf| dqg wkh fuhglw v|vwhp lq fuhdwlqj wkh frqglwlrqv iru
d fulvlv1 Zkhq dvvhw sxufkdvhv duh �qdqfhg e| wkh �qdqfldo v|vwhp/ lw lv srvvleoh iru exeeohv
wr eh fuhdwhg1 Wkhvh exeeohv wkhq ohdg wr wkh srvvlelolw| ri �qdqfldo fulvhv/ vlqfh wkh dvvhwv
rq zklfk wkh h{sdqvlrq ri fuhglw lv edvhg duh ryhu0ydoxhg dqg ixuwkhu h{sdqvlrq ri fuhglw
pd| eh qhfhvvdu| wr vxvwdlq wkh ydoxh ri wkhvh dvvhwv1 Zkhq h{sdqvlrq vwrsv/ wkh exeeoh
srsv/ dqg wkh �qdqfldo v|vwhp lv ohiw zlwk orvvhv wkdw pd| wkuhdwhq lwv vwdelolw|1 Xqiruwx0
qdwho|/ erwk pdunhw0edvhg dqg lqwhuphgldu|0edvhg v|vwhpv vhhp wr eh surqh wr wkhvh fulvhv1
Vhqvleoh uhjxodwlrq dqg fuhglw srolflhv duh wkh rqo| vdihjxdug1
Rqh zd| ri glvwlqjxlvklqj �qdqfldo pdunhwv dqg �qdqfldo lqwhuphgldulhv lv e| wkh nlqg
ri uhodwlrqvkls wkdw lv iruphg zkhq wzr sduwlhv hqwhu lqwr d �qdqfldo wudqvdfwlrq1 Lq d
pdunhw lw lv glvwdqw= rqfh wkh vhfxulw| lv lvvxhg dqg sxufkdvhg lw lv yhu| gl!fxow wr fkdqjh
lw1 Zlwk dq lqwhuphgldu| lw lv pruh lqwlpdwh= wkh qxpehu ri sduwlhv lv vpdoo +wzr, dqg wklv
doorzv d frqwudfw wr eh dgmxvwhg dv flufxpvwdqfhv fkdqjh1 Wklv pd| eh dq dgydqwdjh ru d
glvdgydqwdjh1 Zkhq wkhuh duh prudo kd}dug sureohpv/ wkh frpplwphqw wkdw ghdolqj zlwk d
pdunhw doorzv pd| fuhdwh dq lqfhqwlyh iru wkh djhqw wr pdnh ehwwhu ghflvlrqv h{ dqwh1 Rq
wkh rwkhu kdqg/ lq d ulvn vkdulqj sureohp/ frqwlqxrxv uhqhjrwldwlrq pd| eh d vxevwlwxwh iru
zulwlqj d yhu| frpsoh{ frqwudfw1 Wkhvh lvvxhv duh glvfxvvhg lq Fkdswhu 431 Zh looxvwudwh
vrph ri wkhvh lghdv lq d glvfxvvlrq ri wkh X1V1 sulydwh htxlw| pdunhw1 Wklv �pdunhw� frqvlvwv
ri olplwhg sduwqhuvklsv wkdw kdyh vrph ri wkh ihdwxuhv ri dq lqwhuphgldu|1
46
417 Wkh Uroh ri wkh Ilup
Rqh fdqqrw glvfxvv wkh �qdqfldo v|vwhp ri d frxqwu| zlwkrxw phqwlrqlqj wkh frusrudwh
vhfwru1 Wkh frusrudwh vhfwru surylghv pdq| ri wkh vhfxulwlhv wudghg e| wkh �qdqfldo vhfwru
dqg wkh uhwxuqv wr wkhvh vhfxulwlhv ghshqgv rq wkh shuirupdqfh ri wkh frpsdqlhv wkdw pdnh
xs wkh frusrudwh vhfwru1 Wkh �qdqfldo vhfwru kdv d uroh lq frusrudwh jryhuqdqfh ehfdxvh
lw doorfdwhv frqwuro uljkwv dqg dvvlvwv lq wkh ghvljq ri wkh vhfxulwlhv wkdw duh xvhg1 Wkh
�qdqfldo vhfwru dovr surylghv lqirupdwlrq rq frpsdq| shuirupdqfh wkdw jxlghv pdqdjhuv
dqg lqyhvwruv1 Shukdsv wkh prvw lpsruwdqw uhdvrq iru uhjduglqj wkh frusrudwh vhfwru dv sduw
ri wkh �qdqfldo v|vwhp lv wkdw/ lq wkh suhvhqfh ri �lpshuihfwlrqv� lq wkh �qdqfldo vhfwru/
frpsdqlhv lqwhuqdol}h �qdqfldo wdvnv wkhpvhoyhv1 Wklv lv prvw reylrxv lq wkh skhqrphqrq
ri lqwhuqdo �qdqfh/ zkhuh wkh �up surylghv iurp lwv rzq uhvrxufhv wkh ixqgv qhhghg iru
lqyhvwphqw/ udwkhu wkdq wxuqlqj wr h{whuqdo vrxufhv ri �qdqfh1 Wkhuh duh rwkhu zd|v lq
zklfk wkh �up lqwhuqdol}hv wkh ixqfwlrqv ri d �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrq/ iurp glyhuvl�fdwlrq wr
khgjlqj wr frusrudwh frqwuro1 Iru doo wkhvh uhdvrqv/ wkhuh lv qr vkdus olqh wkdw fdq eh gudzq
ehwzhhq wkh wkhru| ri wkh �up dqg wkh wkhru| ri �qdqfh1
Wkh wkhru| ri wkh �up wkdw kdv ehhq ghyhorshg ryhu wkh odvw wzhqw| |hduv vwuhvvhv wkh
djhqf| uhodwlrqvkls ehwzhhq rzqhuv dqg pdqdjhuv dqg srvhv wkh sureohp ri frqwuroolqj wkh
pdqdjhu dv wkh fhqwudo wkhruhwlfdo lvvxh1 Dv zh kdyh qrwhg/ d fduhixo frpsdulvrq ri �qdqfldo
v|vwhpv lv qrw yhu| vxssruwlyh ri h{lvwlqj jryhuqdqfh wkhrulhv1 Pdunhwv iru frusrudwh frqwuro
vlpso| gr qrw h{lvw lq vrph frxqwulhv dqg wkh hylghqfh iru wkh prqlwrulqj uroh ri edqnv lv
zhdn1 Lq dgglwlrq/ wkh uholdqfh rq lqwhuqdo �qdqfh lq hdfk ri wkh frxqwulhv xqghuolqhv wkh
idfw wkdw pdqdjhuv duh odujho| dxwrqrprxv ri rxwvlgh vrxufhv ri �qdqfh1 Lw vhhpv wkdw d
wkhru| ri wkh �up dv dq dxwrqrprxv hqwlw| lv qhhghg wr frpsohphqw wkh wkhru| ri wkh �up
edvhg rq djhqf| dqg frusrudwh frqwuro1
Fkdswhu 44 vwduwv e| frqvlghulqj zk| wklv nlqg ri vhsdudwlrq ri rzqhuvkls dqg frqwuro
pd| lq idfw eh ghvludeoh1 H{whuqdo frqwurov lqyroyh frvwv dv zhoo dv ehqh�wv/ dqg d fhuwdlq
ghjuhh ri dxwrqrp| rq wkh sduw ri pdqdjhphqw pd| eh ehqh�fldo iru wkh �up1 Iru h{dpsoh/
li pdqdjhuv kdyh vxshulru lqirupdwlrq derxw wkh zd| lq zklfk wkh �up rxjkw wr eh uxq/
47
lw pd| eh rswlpdo wr jlyh wkhp �iuhh uhlq� wr pdnh xvh ri wkdw lqirupdwlrq/ hyhq li wkh
pdqdjhuv* lqwhuhvwv duh qrw shuihfwo| doljqhg zlwk wkrvh ri wkh rzqhuv1
Zh w|slfdoo| wklqn ri wkh �up dv rqh ri wkh ehqh�fldulhv ri wkh �qdqfldo v|vwhp/ exw
qrw sduw ri wkh �qdqfldo v|vwhp lwvhoi1 Krzhyhu/ lq dq lpshuihfw zruog lq zklfk pdunhwv
duh lqfrpsohwh dqg lqwhuphgldulhv vx�hu iurp djhqf| sureohpv/ wkh �up lwvhoi fdq dfw dv d
�qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrq1 Wkdw lv/ wkh �up wdnhv ryhu wkh ixqfwlrqv ri d �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrq wr
frpshqvdwh iru wkh olplwdwlrqv ri �qdqfldo pdunhwv dqg �qdqfldo lqwhuphgldulhv1
Rqh h{dpsoh ri wklv skhqrphqrq lv wkh uroh ri lqwhuqdo �qdqfh1 Zlwk frpsohwh pdunhwv/
zh fdq dvvxph wkdw �upv sd| doo hduqlqjv wr vkduhkroghuv dqg wkdw �qdqfldo pdunhwv ru lq0
whuphgldulhv surylgh �upv zlwk wkh ixqgv wkh| qhhg iru lqyhvwphqw1 Lq sudfwlfh/ dv|pphwulf
lqirupdwlrq dqg djhqf| frvwv uhvwulfw wkh uroh ri h{whuqdo �qdqfh dqg pdnh lw d frvwo| do0
whuqdwlyh wr lqwhuqdoo| jhqhudwhg ixqgv1 Txdqwlwdwlyho|/ lqwhuqdo �qdqfh lv d pruh lpsruwdqw
vrxufh ri ixqgv iru lqyhvwphqw wkdq ghew ru htxlw|1 Wkh sureohp zlwk wklv vwdwh ri d�dluv lv
wkdw wkhuh lv qr uhdvrq wr wklqn wkdw wkh uhvxowlqj doorfdwlrq ri ixqgv iru lqyhvwphqw lv rswl0
pdo1 Ilupv wkdw duh fdvk0ulfk pd| eh srru lq rssruwxqlwlhv iru lqyhvwphqw dqg ylfh yhuvd1
Vr wkh h{whuqdo �qdqfh frqvwudlqw dsshduv wr eh d vrxufh ri lqh!flhqf|1 Zkdw wklv vlpsoh
dujxphqw ryhuorrnv lv wkh srvvlelolw| wkdw �upv wkdw kdyh dq h{fhvv ri fdvk fdq dftxluh rwkhu
�upv dqg/ frqyhuvho|/ �upv wkdw kdyh wrr olwwoh fdvk fdq vhoo wkhpvhoyhv wr wkrvh wkdw kdyh
wrr pxfk1 Lq rwkhu zrugv/ wkh �up uh0gh�qhv lwvhoi wr dfklhyh d ehwwhu doorfdwlrq ri uhvrxufhv
dqg lqfuhdvh ydoxh1 Wklv nlqg ri vlwxdwlrq lv frqvlghuhg lq wkh vhfrqg sduw ri Fkdswhu 441
Dqrwkhu mxvwl�fdwlrq iru lqwhuqdo �qdqfh lv wkh dv|pphwu| ri lqirupdwlrq ehwzhhq pdq0
djhuv dqg vkduhkroghuv1 Hyhq li pdqdjhuv* lqwhuhvwv duh qrw shuihfwo| doljqhg zlwk wkrvh ri
vkduhkroghuv/ lw pd| vwloo eh vhfrqg0ehvw rswlpdo wr jlyh pdqdjhuv d odujh dprxqw ri glv0
fuhwlrq lq wkh uxqqlqj ri wkh �up1 Wkh uhdvrq lv vlpso| wkdw w|lqj wkhlu kdqgv wkurxjk
uhvwulfwlyh frusrudwh jryhuqdqfh surfhgxuhv suhyhqwv wkhp iurp h{sorlwlqj wkhlu lqirupd0
wlrqdo dgydqwdjh wkhlu rzq ehkdoi exw lw dovr suhyhqwv wkhp iurp h{sorlwlqj lw rq wkh ehkdoi
ri vkduhkroghuv dv zhoo1 Vkduhkroghuv pd| eh ehwwhu r� doorzlqj pdqdjhuv d iuhh kdqg wr
dssursuldwh vrph uhqwv li wkh| lqfuhdvh wkh ydoxh ri wkh �up vx!flhqwo|1 Dq h{dpsoh ri wklv
48
vruw lv suhvhqwhg lq Fkdswhu 441
Lq Mdsdq/ wkh vhsdudwlrq ri rzqhuvkls dqg frqwuro lv shukdsv wkh prvw h{wuhph1 Wkhuh
duh qr krvwloh wdnhryhuv1 Erdugv duh odujh dqg lqh�hfwlyh dqg duh grplqdwhg e| wkh Suhvlghqw
ri wkh frpsdq|1 Wkh edqnv lqwhuyhqh rqo| zkhq d �up lv lq �qdqfldo glvwuhvv1 Lq pdq| zd|v
Mdsdqhvh �upv duh olnh qrq0sur�wv lq wkh X1V1 Ghvslwh wklv/ pdq| ri wkhvh Mdsdqhvh �upv kdyh
ehhq yhu| vxffhvvixo ryhu d orqj shulrg ri wlph1 Frpsdqlhv olnh Wr|rwd/ Vrq|/ Pdwvxvklwd wr
qdph exw d ihz duh zruog ohdghuv lq wkhlu lqgxvwulhv1 Pruhryhu wkh vkduhkroghuv lq Mdsdqhvh
frpsdqlhv kdyh grqh zhoo lq wkh orqj uxq1 Wkh uhwxuq rq wkh QUL 683 lqgh{ vlqfh wkh hduo|
4<:3*v lv derxw wkh vdph dv wkh uhwxuq rq wkh V)S 833 gxulqj wkdw shulrg1 �Wklv vdph
ylhz ri wkh �up dv dq lqghshqghqw hqwlw| lv wuxh lq rwkhu frxqwulhv dowkrxjk shukdsv wr
d ohvvhu ghjuhh1 Dv zloo eh grfxphqwhg lq Fkdswhu 7/ lq wkh X1V1 wkh qrq0sur�w vhfwru lv
wkulylqj dqg odujh1 Qrq0sur�wv riwhq vxffhvvixoo| frpshwh gluhfwo| zlwk iru0sur�wv1 Wkhlu
h{whuqdo jryhuqdqfh phfkdqlvp duh zhdn ru qrq0h{lvwhqw dqg |hw wkh| vhhp wr rshudwh idluo|
h!flhqwo|1
Wkhvh h{dpsohv surylgh d fkdoohqjh wr frqyhqwlrqdo wkhrulhv ri �upv dv sur�w pd{lpl}lqj
hqwlwlhv1 Lq Fkdswhu 45 zh frqvlghu d gl�huhqw dssurdfk1 Zh vhh wkh �up dv d vhoi0rujdql}lqj
hqwlw| wkdw fdq vroyh lwv rzq lqfhqwlyh sureohpv1 Wkh �up lv lq xhqfhg e| pdq| jurxsv
ri vwdnhkroghuv�pdqdjhuv/ vkduhkroghuv/ fxvwrphuv/ vxssolhuv/ zrunhuv�dqg uhtxluhv wkh
frrshudwlrq ri doo wkhvh jurxsv lq rughu wr vxffhhg1 Dowkrxjk gl�huhqw jurxsv kdyh gl�huhqw
lqwhuhvwv/ wkh| doo kdyh d frpprq lqwhuhvw lq wkh jurzwk dqg survshulw| ri wkh �up1 Lq
Fkdswhu 45 zh vwxg| vrph h{dpsohv ri zd|v lq zklfk wkh �up ghyhorsv lwv rzq dxwrqrprxv
�remhfwlyhv� wkdw duh qrw lghqwl�deoh zlwk wkrvh ri dq| lqglylgxdo1 Pdqdjhuv kdyh wr fr0
rshudwh lq uxqqlqj wkh �up/ dqg e| pxwxdo prqlwrulqj fdq ryhufrph wkh djhqf| sureohpv
wkdw kdyh ehhq wkh irfxv ri wkh wudglwlrqdo olwhudwxuh rq wkh pdqdjhu0vkduhkroghu frq lfw1
Lqvwhdg ri ohdglqj wr �vklunlqj�/ wklv irup ri frrshudwlyh dxwrqrp| ohdgv wr idu0vljkwhg frq0
fhuq zlwk wkh vxffhvv ri wkh �up/ ehfdxvh wkh zhoiduh ri hdfk lqglylgxdo pdqdjhu ghshqgv
rq ehlqj deoh wr dwwudfw qhz/ |rxqj pdqdjhuv lqwr wkh �up/ zklfk lv rqo| srvvleoh li wkh
�up kdv d yldeoh ixwxuh1 Wklv vlpsoh lghd lv dq h{dpsoh ri wkh zd| lq zklfk vhoi0lqwhuhvwhg
49
vwdnhkroghuv duh ohg wr frrshudwh lq ehkdylruv wkdw ohdg wr vxffhvv iru wkh �up udwkhu wkdq
p|rslf h{sorlwdwlrq ru uhqw vhhnlqj1
418 Lqwhuphgldulhv dqg Pdunhwv
Wkh frqwudvw ehwzhhq wkh X1V1 dqg Jhupdq �qdqfldo v|vwhpv/ zlwk zklfk zh ehjdq wklv
fkdswhu/ vxjjhvwv wkdw pdunhwv dqg lqwhuphgldulhv duh dowhuqdwlyhv wkdw shuirup pruh ru
ohvv wkh vdph ixqfwlrqv exw lq gl�huhqw zd|v dqg shukdsv zlwk gl�huhqw ghjuhhv ri vxffhvv1
Rqh lpsruwdqw duhd zkhuh wkh| shuirup gl�huhqwo| lv zkhuh shrsoh kdyh glyhuvlw| ri rslqlrq
dqg wkhuh lv jhqxlqh glvdjuhhphqw derxw wkh rswlpxp ghflvlrq1 Rqh ri wkh dgydqwdjhv
ri wkh pdunhw/ glvfxvvhg lq Fkdswhu 46/ lv wkdw lw doorzv lqyhvwruv wr djuhh wr glvdjuhh1
Hfrqrpl}lqj rq lqirupdwlrq wkurxjk wkh ghohjdwhg prqlwrulqj lqkhuhqw lq lqwhuphgldwlrq
lqhylwdeo| uhtxluhv lqyhvwruv wr vxephujh wkhlu glvdjuhhphqwv dqg dffhsw d frpsurplvh/ rqh
wkdw pd| qrw vdwlvi| prvw ri wkhp1 Dv d uhvxow pdunhwv pd| kdyh d vljql�fdqw dgydqwdjh
ryhu lqwhuphgldulhv lq vlwxdwlrqv zkhuh glyhuvlw| ri rslqlrq lv lpsruwdqw vxfk dv wkh �qdqflqj
ri qhz whfkqrorjlhv1
Krzhyhu/ lq jhqhudo wkh pruh rqh h{dplqhv wkh olplwdwlrqv ri pdunhwv dqg wkh uhdvrqv
zk| pdunhwv duh xvhg lq vrph vlwxdwlrqv dqg qrw lq rwkhuv/ wkh ohvv dghtxdwh wkh �hlwkhu0
ru� shuvshfwlyh dsshduv1 Lq idfw/ lw dsshduv wkdw lqwhuphgldulhv duh ehfrplqj lqfuhdvlqjo|
hvvhqwldo wr wkh h!flhqw h{sorlwdwlrq ri lqfuhdvlqjo| frpsoh{ pdunhwv1
Wkh wuhphqgrxv lqqrydwlrq lq �qdqfldo pdunhwv wkdw kdv rffxuuhg lq wkh odvw wzr ghfdghv
lq wkh X1V1 dqg wkh h{sorvlrq lq wkh yroxph ri wudgh wkdw iroorzhg/ kdv ehhq yhu| qduurzo|
irfxvhg1 Hvvhqwldoo|/ lw kdv ehhq surylglqj ehwwhu ulvn0vkdulqj rssruwxqlwlhv iru �qdqfldo
lqvwlwxwlrqv +dqg wkhlu fxvwrphuv,1 Wklv lv qrw vxusulvlqj zkhq rqh frqvlghuv wkh h{shuwlvh
wkdw lv qhhghg wr rshudwh lq wkhvh pdunhwv/ exw lw lv vrphwklqj wkdw lv kdug wr uhfrqfloh zlwk
wudglwlrqdo wkhru| ri dvvhw pdunhwv1 Wr sxw lw dqrwkhu zd|/ wkh idploldu dgylfh �li |rx grq*w
xqghuvwdqg lw/ grq*w ex| lw� lv kdug wr uhfrqfloh zlwk wkh vwdqgdug prgho ri h{shfwhg xwlolw|
pd{lpl}lqj ehkdylru1 Wkh wudglwlrqdo wkhru| exlogv lq vr pxfk lqirupdwlrq dorqj zlwk lwv
4:
vwdqgdug udwlrqdolw| srvwxodwhv/ wkdw dq lqyhvwru zlwk udwlrqdo h{shfwdwlrqv zrxog zdqw wr
sduwlflsdwh lq doo ri wkhvh pdunhwv1 Rq wkh rwkhu kdqg/ zh gr qrw qhfhvvdulo| zdqw wr gurs
wkh udwlrqdolw| dvvxpswlrq dv dq rujdql}lqj sulqflsoh1 Wklv suhvhqwv xv zlwk d glohppd1
Fkdswhu 47 ghyhorsv dq dssurdfk wr prgho wkh lqirupdwlrqdo frvwv ri xvlqj pdunhwv dqg wr
h{sodlq lq whupv ri udwlrqdo ehkdylru/ exw vrphzkdw qrq0vwdqgdug lqirupdwlrqdo vwuxfwxuhv/
zk| pdunhwv duh frvwo| wr xvh dqg zk| sduwlflsdwlrq lq wkhvh pdunhwv lv olplwhg dv d uhvxow1
Wkh uroh ri lqwhuphgldulhv wkhq/ lv wr pdnh lw srvvleoh iru lqglylgxdov wr jdlq vrph ri
wkh ehqh�wv ri pdunhwv zlwkrxw ehdulqj surklelwlyh frvwv1 Sduw ri wklv fdq eh grqh e|
hfrqrpl}lqj rq wkh frvwv ri dftxlulqj lqirupdwlrq1 Wklv fdq eh vhhq dv wkh wudglwlrqdo
dgylvlqj uroh ri lqwhuphgldulhv1 Wkh lqwhuphgldu| dftxluhv lqirupdwlrq dw d �{hg frvw dqg
wkhq vkduhv lw zlwk lwv fxvwrphuv dw d qrplqdo pdujlqdo frvw1 Exw wklv wudqvplvvlrq pd| qrw
eh wkh prvw lpsruwdqw uroh ri lqwhuphgldulhv1 Pxfk ri wkh lqirupdwlrq lv kdug wr wudqvplw
dqg li wkh lqwhuphgldu| wdnhv rq wkh uroh ri djhqw iru wkh fxvwrphu/ dqg pdnhv ghflvlrqv
rq klv ehkdoi/ wkhuh lv wkh sureohp ri krz wkh lqwhuphgldu| nqrzv zkdw lv jrrg iru wkh
fxvwrphu zlwkrxw wkh odwwhu xqghuvwdqglqj krz wkh pdunhw zrunv1 Rqh srvvlelolw| lv wkdw
lqwhuphgldulhv fdq uhsdfndjh vhfxulwlhv lq d zd| wkdw uhtxluhv ohvv lqirupdwlrq wr hydoxdwh1
Dqrwkhu lv wkdw lqwhuphgldulhv fdq pdnh lpsolflw frqwudfwv zlwk fxvwrphuv wr lqvxuh wkhp
djdlqvw vrph ri wkh �xqfhuwdlqw|� wkh| idfh lq wudglqj dq xqidploldu vhfxulw|1 Wkhvh lghdv
duh h{soruhg lq Fkdswhu 481
419 Wudgh0r�v
Wkhuh duh d qxpehu ri wkhphv wkdw wlh wkh errn wrjhwkhu1 Rqh wkhph lv wkdw wkh vdph
ixqfwlrqv pd| eh shuiruphg e| txlwh gl�huhqw pdunhwv ru lqvwlwxwlrqv lq gl�huhqw frxqwulhv1
Vr rqh kdv wr orrn dw wkh �qdqfldo v|vwhp dv d zkroh lq rughu wr jhw dq lghd ri krz zhoo wkh
v|vwhp shuirupv wkhvh ixqfwlrqv1
Dqrwkhu wkhph frqfhuqv wkh whqvlrq ehwzhhq wkh +h{ srvw, h!flhqf| dvvrfldwhg zlwk
frpshwlwlyh �qdqfldo pdunhwv dqg wkh vxshulru ulvn vkdulqj dvvrfldwhg zlwk �qdqfldo v|vwhpv
4;
edvhg rq odujh �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv1 Lq rughu iru �qdqfldo pdunhwv wr h{lvw/ wkhuh kdv wr eh d
fhuwdlq dprxqw ri ghswk/ wkdw lv/ wkhuh kdyh wr eh odujh qxpehuv ri wudghuv dqg d odujh yroxph
ri wudgh1 odujh qxpehuv ri wudghuv dqg d odujh yroxph ri wudgh1 Wkhvh duh flufxpvwdqfhv lq
zklfk frpshwlwlrq rxulvkhv1 Ilqdqfldo pdunhwv duh dwwudfwlyh ehfdxvh wkh| plqlpl}h wkh
uroh ri wkh plggoh pdq dqg surylgh wkh ehvw whupv wr wkrvh surylglqj lqyhvwphqw ixqgv dqg
wkrvh wu|lqj wr udlvh ixqgv1 Ilupv dqg lqglylgxdov zkr ghdo zlwk d �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrq duh
riwhq dw d glvdgydqwdjh/ krzhyhu/ ehfdxvh ri gl�huhqfhv lq vl}h ru ehfdxvh ri wkh �krog0xs�
sureohpv wkdw dulvh iurp dv|pphwulf lqirupdwlrq lq d orqj0whup uhodwlrqvkls1
Wkh gudzedfn ri pdunhw0edvhg �qdqfldo v|vwhpv lv wkdw pdunhwv duh lqfrpsohwh1 Wkhuh
duh �{hg frvwv ri vhwwlqj xs pdunhwv/ zklfk fdq rqo| eh uhfryhuhg zkhq d plqlpxp fulwlfdo
vl}h lv uhdfkhg/ vr pdq| vpdoo pdunhwv duh qrw yldeoh1 Rwkhu pdunhwv duh qrw yldeoh ehfdxvh
ri dv|pphwulf lqirupdwlrq/ prudo kd}dug/ hwf1 Ilqdqfldo v|vwhpv edvhg rq lqvwlwxwlrqv fdq
ryhufrph wkhvh sureohpv e| r�hulqj �pdgh wr phdvxuh� ulvn0vkdulqj frqwudfwv1 Ixuwkhupruh/
wkhuh lv d vhqvh lq zklfk lqfrpsohwh �qdqfldo pdunhwv dfwxdoo| h{srvh lqglylgxdov dqg �upv
wr juhdwhu ulvn/ ehfdxvh dvvhwv wkdw duh pdunhg wr pdunhw pd| xfwxdwh iru uhdvrqv wkdw
kdyh olwwoh ru qrwklqj wr gr zlwk wkhlu ixqgdphqwdov1 Lq idfw/ �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv/ e|
dyrlglqj wkh xvh ri pdunhwv/ pd| eh deoh wr r�hu ulvn vprrwklqj vhuylfhv wkdw pdunhwv fdqqrw1
Ilqdoo|/ frpshwlwlrq iurp pdunhwv pd| xqghuplqh wkh ulvn vkdulqj r�huhg e| lqvwlwxwlrqv/
vlqfh wkhuh zloo eh vwdwhv ri qdwxuh lq zklfk wkh uhwxuqv r�huhg rq wkh pdunhw glyhujh iurp
wkrvh r�huhg e| lqvwlwxwlrqv wkdw duh hqjdjhg lq r�hulqj ulvn vkdulqj frqwudfwv1 Wkhq wkhuh
zloo eh glvlqwhuphgldwlrq zklfk pd| suhyhqw wkh fr0h{lvwhqfh ri frpshwlwlyh pdunhwv dqg
lqvwlwxwlrqv1 Vr wkhuh duh d qxpehu ri wudgh0r�v ehwzhhq wkh +h{ srvw, h!flhqf| ri �qdqfldo
pdunhwv dqg wkh ulvn vkdulqj surylghg e| �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv1
Dqrwkhu wkhph frqfhuqv wkh whqvlrq ehwzhhq wkh frpshwlwlyhqhvv ri �qdqfldo v|vwhpv
fkdudfwhul}hg e| �qdqfldo pdunhwv dqg dq xqfrqfhqwudwhg edqnlqj vhfwru dqg wkh vwdelolw|
ri �qdqfldo v|vwhpv fkdudfwhul}hg e| d ihz grplqdqw lqvwlwxwlrqv1 Frpshwlwlrq dprqj edqnv
pd| ohdg wr ulvn0wdnlqj ehkdylru ehfdxvh edqnv duh �jkwlqj iru pdunhw vkduh +zklfk lqwur0
gxfhv qrq0frqyh{lwlhv lqwr wkhlu suhihuhqfhv, ru ehfdxvh lw orzhuv sur�w pdujlqv/ uhgxflqj wkh
4<
ydoxh ri ixwxuh hduqlqjv dqg wkh dvvrfldwhg lqfhqwlyh wr dyrlg edqnuxswf|1 Dovr/ wkh suhvhqfh
ri pdunhwv iru dvvhwv/ zklfk r�huv khosixo oltxlglw| zkhq dq lqglylgxdo edqn vx�huv d vpdoo
vkrfn/ pd| wxuq lqwr d glvdgydqwdjh zkhq lw irufhv edqnv wr oltxlgdwh dvvhwv dw �uhvdoh sulfhv/
wkxv uhgxflqj dvvhw ydoxhv dqg zruvhqlqj wkh srvlwlrq ri ghsrvlwruv frpsduhg wr d vlwxdwlrq
lq zklfk wkh edqnv* dvvhwv zhuh uhodwlyho| looltxlg1 Vlploduo|/ frpshwlwlrq pd| uhtxluh odujh
qxpehuv ri vpdoo edqnv/ zklfk duh pruh surqh wr �qdqfldo frqwdjlrq1 Wkhvh duh mxvw vrph
ri wkh zd|v lq zklfk d �qdqfldo v|vwhp wkdw hqfrxudjhv frpshwlwlrq pd| lqfxu frvwv wkdw
fdq eh dyrlghg lq d edqn0edvhg ru lqvwlwxwlrq0edvhg v|vwhp1
Lqirupdwlrq sod|v d fhqwudo uroh lq pdq| ri wkh wrslfv zh glvfxvv1 Pdunhwv dqg lqwhuphgl0
dulhv ghdo zlwk lqirupdwlrq lq gl�huhqw zd|v1 Pdunhwv duh nqrzq wr eh h�hfwlyh phfkdqlvpv
iru djjuhjdwlqj lqirupdwlrq1 Lqwhuphgldulhv hfrqrpl}h rq wkh frvwv ri jdwkhulqj lqirupdwlrq
e| uhsodflqj pdq| prqlwruv zlwk rqh ghohjdwhg prqlwru1 Zklfk lv prvw h�hfwlyh ghshqgv
rq wkh nlqg ri lqirupdwlrq wkdw lv ehlqj dftxluhg1 Lqwhuphgldulhv pd| eh prvw h�hfwlyh lq
holplqdwlqj gxsolfdwlrq ri lqirupdwlrq jdwkhulqj dqg surfhvvlqj/ zklfk lv olnho| wr eh uhoh0
ydqw zkhq hyhu|rqh djuhhv rq zkdw lqirupdwlrq qhhgv wr eh froohfwhg dqg krz lw vkrxog eh
surfhvvhg1 Exw wkhuh duh dovr vlwxdwlrqv lq zklfk lqglylgxdov djuhh wr glvdjuhh dqg hyhu|0
rqh kdv wr pdnh xs klv rzq plqg1 Wklv pd| eh wkh fdvh zkhq qhz whfkqrorjlhv duh ehlqj
hydoxdwhg ru zkhq d xqltxh ghflvlrq kdv wr eh pdgh1 Frpshwlwlyh pdunhwv pd| eh ehwwhu
dw ghdolqj zlwk wklv nlqg ri lqirupdwlrq1
Dqrwkhu wkhph lv wkh dxwrqrp| ri wkh prghuq frusrudwlrq1 Rqh ri wkh pdmru frqfhuqv
ri frusrudwh �qdqfh lv wkh ghvljq ri phfkdqlvpv iru frusrudwh frqwuro1 Lq rwkhu zrugv/ krz
wr pdnh pdqdjhuv gr zkdw vkduhkroghuv zdqw1 Pdunhwv dqg edqnv fdq surylgh frusrudwh
ryhuvljkw/ exw �upv wkhpvhoyhv fdq ghyhors vwuxfwxuhv wr vroyh wkh ryhuvljkw sureohp1 Zh
dujxh wkdw lq vrph fdvhv/ h{whuqdo frqwuro pd| qrw eh rswlpdo1 Lq dq| fdvh/ vrph ghjuhh ri
dxwrqrp| vhhpv wr eh wkh qrup dqg grhv qrw dsshdu wr eh lqfrpsdwleoh zlwk vxffhvv1
Olnhzlvh/ zkhq h{whuqdo vrxufhv ri �qdqfh gr qrw surylgh wkh �up zlwk doo wkh ixqgv lw
qhhgv/ wkh �up fdq uhvruw wr vhoi0�qdqfh1 Wklv lv riwhq uhjdughg dv d edg wklqj1 Hlwkhu wkh
frvw ri vhoi0�qdqfh lv juhdwhu wkdq wkh frvw ri rewdlqlqj ixqgv lq wkh pdunhw ru vhoi0�qdqfh lv
53
vhhq dv v|pswrpdwlf ri dq djhqf| sureohp/ ehfdxvh wkh pdqdjhu lv xqghuwdnlqj lqyhvwphqw
wkdw wkh pdunhw grhv qrw zdqw wr �qdqfh1 Zh nqrz wkhuh duh frqglwlrqv xqghu zklfk
h{whuqdo vrxufhv surylgh h!flhqw �qdqfh/ exw wkhvh duh uhvwulfwlyh1 Wkh idfw wkdw lqwhuqdo
�qdqfh lv vr grplqdqw lq pdq| vxffhvvixo hfrqrplhv vxjjhvwv wkdw lw pd| eh rswlpdo xqghu
fhuwdlq flufxpvwdqfhv1 Lq wklv vhqvh/ wkh �up fdq eh uhjdughg dv d ��qdqfldo� lqvwlwxwlrq
wkdw ryhufrphv wkh olplwdwlrqv ri �qdqfldo pdunhwv lq wkh vdph zd| wkdw lqwhuphgldulhv gr1
D �qdo wkhph frqfhuqv wkh uroh ri lqwhuphgldulhv lq pdnlqj pdunhwv zrun1 Zh kdyh
vwuhvvhg wkh dgydqwdjhv ri �qdqfldo lqvwlwxwlrqv dv li wkh| zhuh d vxevwlwxwh iru pdunhwv/
exw rqh ri wkhlu prvw lpsruwdqw ixqfwlrqv lv d vxssruwlqj uroh1 Pdunhwv duh d zrqghuixo
lqyhqwlrq/ exw wkh| uhtxluh d juhdw ghdo ri vrsklvwlfdwlrq rq wkh sduw ri lqyhvwruv1 Zkhq wkh
sduwlflsdwlrq frvwv ri dftxlulqj lqirupdwlrq duh vxevwdqwldo/ wkh vhfrqg0ehvw vroxwlrq pd|
eh wr ghyhors dowhuqdwlyh lqvwlwxwlrqv wkdw hfrqrpl}h rq wkh sduwlflsdwlrq frvwv1 Rqh ri wkh
wklqjv zh wu| wr gr lq wklv errn lv wr �qg d zd| ri wklqnlqj derxw wkh lqirupdwlrqdo dqg
rwkhu eduulhuv wr xvlqj pdunhwv h�hfwlyho|1 Lqwhuphgldulhv duh rqh ri wkh vroxwlrqv1
Vr lq wkh hqg/ lw lv qrw d txhvwlrq ri pdunhwv yhuvxv lqwhuphgldulhv/ exw udwkhu ri pdunhwv
dqg lqwhuphgldulhv1
D frpsdulvrq ri gl�huhqw w|shv ri �qdqfldo v|vwhp lv frpsoh{1 Wkhuh duh qr vlpsoh dq0
vzhuv1 D zlgh udqjh ri v|vwhpv gl�huhqw v|vwhpv lv revhuyhg lq sudfwlfh1 Hdfk ri wkhvh kdv
dgydqwdjhv dqg glvdgydqwdjhv1 Zkdw lv lpsruwdqw lq dqdo|}lqj �qdqfldo v|vwhpv lv xqghu0
vwdqglqj wkh pdmru wudgh0r�v1 Iljxuh 5 vkrzv wkh rqhv wkdw zh kdyh hpskdvl}hg1 Dowkrxjk
lw lv d fdulfdwxuh/ zh fdq vhh wkh gl�huhqw �qdqfldo v|vwhpv ri wkh X1V1 dqg Jhupdq| dv wzr
h{wuhphv1 Wkh X1V1 kdv d frpshwlwlyh/ pdunhw0edvhg v|vwhp zklfk lv surqh wr lqvwdelolw|1
Odujh dprxqwv ri lqirupdwlrq duh glvvhplqdwhg sxeolfo| exw wkh iuhh ulghu sureohp eoxqwv wkh
lqfhqwlyhv wr jdwkhu wkh lqirupdwlrq1 Wkh pdunhw iru frusrudwh frqwuro lpsrvhv vrph h{whuqdo
uhvwudlqwv1 Dw wkh rwkhu h{wuhph lv Jhupdq|1 Wklv kdv d frqfhqwudwhg/ lqwhuphgldu|0edvhg
�qdqfldo v|vwhp1 Wklv surylghv ulvn vkdulqj dqg vwdelolw|1 Qrw pxfk lqirupdwlrq lv glvvhp0
lqdwhg sxeolfo| exw wkh sulydwh lqfhqwlyhv wr jdwkhu lqirupdwlrq duh odujh ehfdxvh wkh iuhh
ulghu sureohp lv holplqdwhg1 Ilqdoo|/ wkh h{whuqdo frqvwudlqwv rq �upv duh suredeo| zhdnhu
54
wkdq lq wkh X1V1 dqg wklv jlyhv �upv juhdwhu dxwrqrp|1 Wkh rwkhu frxqwulhv olh lq ehwzhhq1
Wkh X1N1 lv forvh wr wkh X1V1 lq whupv ri lwv uholdqfh rq pdunhwv/ exw gl�huv lq lwv wrohudqfh ri
frqfhqwudwlrq lq wkh �qdqfldo vhfwru dqg wkh uhodwlyh od{qhvv ri lwv uhjxodwru| hqylurqphqw1
Mdsdq dqg Iudqfh duh forvhu wr Jhupdq| lq wkhlu wrohudqfh ri frqfhqwudwlrq/ odfn ri uholdqfh
rq pdunhwv dqg zhdnqhvv ri h{whuqdo phfkdqlvpv ri jryhuqdqfh1 Ilqdoo|/ jrlqj iruzdug lw lv
olnho| wr eh d frpelqdwlrq ri pdunhwv dqg lqwhuphgldulhv wkdw duh lpsruwdqw hyhu|zkhuh dv
pdunhwv ehfrph lqfuhdvlqjo| vrsklvwlfdwhg1
E| klvwrulfdo dfflghqw/ pxfk ri wkh dfdghplf uhvhdufk rq �qdqfldo v|vwhpv kdv ehhq
xqghuwdnhq lq wkh X1V1 dqg X1N1 Wklv kdv shukdsv ohg wr d eldv wrzdugv pdunhw v|vwhpv1 Dw
wkh yhu| ohdvw zh krsh wkdw wklv errn zloo frqylqfh wkh uhdghu wkdw wkh vwxg| ri frpsdudwlyh
�qdqfldo v|vwhpv dqg wkh uroh ri lqvwlwxwlrqv lq ryhufrplqj pdunhw idloxuhv lv lpsruwdqw dqg
wkhuh lv qr wkhruhwlfdo suhvxpswlrq wkdw lqwhuphgldwhg v|vwhpv duh lqihulru1
55
Qrwhv41 Iurp wkh �uvw txduwhu ri 4<:4 xqwlo wkh wklug txduwhu ri 4<<8/ wkh dqqxdo jurzwk udwh ri
wkh QUL 683 zdv 45149(1 Ryhu wkh vdph shulrg/ wkh dqqxdo jurzwk udwh ri wkh V)S 833zdv 4514:(1
56
top related