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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
FIBRE TO THE MOST ECONOMIC POINTRic Clark | VP Strategy and Public Affairs, Asia PacificOctober 2013
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
5 YEARS AGO…
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
1. The Need for Speed
2. Technology Options
3. Economics of Deployment
4. The Way Forward
1. The Need for Speed
SAME AGENDA – STILL REVELANT
TECHNOLOGY DRIVERS
USAGE
GROWTH2008
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
TECHNOLOGY DRIVERS AND ENABLERS
WHAT’S CHANGED?
2008
• Tablets/Smart Phones
• Hetnet/Wifi
• Smart Appliances
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
WHAT’S CHANGED?
THE WEB DRIVING: HIGH SPEED INTERNET AND ‘BIGGER PIPES’
• Cloud-based services
• Social media
• Multi screen
• Ubiquity
2008
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
EXPONENTIAL GROWTH NEEDS A BOLD APPRAOCH TO HIGHER SPEED BB
• Not a lot!
WHAT’S CHANGED?
2008
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
GLOBAL TRENDS - BANDWIDTH
RESIDENTIAL VIDEO BANDWIDTH USAGE PROJECTION
SOURCE: Get To Fast, Faster: Accelerate the Existing Copper Plant with VDSL2 Vectoring and Bonding, April 2013, Alcatel-Lucent.
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
SOCIAL MEDIA AS A POPULATIONBIGGER THAN TEXAS
SOURCE: IMF April 2013SOURCE: IMF April 2013 Population/Subscribers: Millions
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
GLOBAL TRENDS USERS
SOURCE: A Changing Market Environment Demands a High Leverage Network, January 2013, Alcatel-Lucent: http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/techzine/a-changing-market-environment-demands-a-high-leverage-network/
7.7bMOBILE CONNECTIONS
1.15bSMARTPHONESFIXED BROADBAND
CONNECTIONS
By 2016…
743m
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
GLOBAL TRENDS TRAFFIC
SOURCE: A Changing Market Environment Demands a High Leverage Network, January 2013, Alcatel-Lucent: http://www2.alcatel-lucent.com/techzine/a-changing-market-environment-demands-a-high-leverage-network/
45-85xIn 5 years…TRAFFIC GROWTH
Macro Smart offload Metro cell (3G/LTE) Metro cell (Wi-Fi) Wi-Fi home
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 20160
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,00045x – 85x
GROWTH
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
2008
VDSL2 GLOBAL TRENDS
• National Programs
• Evolution vs Revolution
• Recognition of OTT demand
• Headline speeds
WHAT’S CHANGED?
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
WORLDWIDE BROADBAND TRENDS
Large, integrated predominantly
national players
Continuing large infrastructure / NBN
builds
Copper re-considered to meet timelines and
budgets
Diverse, competition driven, fragmented markets —in all aspects
Cable competition drives copper upgrade
Fiber investment stalling – re-commitment to copper
Large, integrated players and multi-national operators
Large-scale fiber or copper deployments in North America
Mixed copper, fiber, mobile deployments in Latin America
100M50%2020
90M2014
100M100M2020
90%2013
100M100M2015
100M90%2020
100M75%2020
speedsubs.date
0 ITU-T, fixed BB subs per 100 inhabitants
40
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
WHAT’S CHANGED?
TWO RESULTING PATHS TO MASS MARKET FIBRE
• Additional Technology Options
• Deployment experience
• MSO/CATV response
2008
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
EMERGING OPERATOR STRATEGIES MORE BANDWIDTH TO MORE SUBSCRIBERS
TARGET• 50 Mbit/s : 2015• 90 Mbit/s : 2020 TREND
• Fast deployment• Limit investment
COPPER OPERATORS FIBRE OPERATORS
DRIVER • Cable competition, quick to market• Limited investment, quick revenue• Upgrade path
• Fibre competition• Future-proof• Public funding• Existing ducts/rights
PLATFORM • FTTN + FTTP in greenfield • FTTP, complemented by FTTx
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
COPPER CONSTRAINTS
FUTURES
MIGRATION
1. The Need for Speed
3. Economics of Deployment
4. The Way Forward
2008
2. Technology Options2. Technology Options
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
WHAT’S CHANGED?
2008
THEORETICAL AND EXPECTED ADSL2+ PERFORMANCE ON AUSTRALIAN LOOPS
• Not constrained to copper
• But DSL has moved on!
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
2008
STILL OPPORTUNITIES FOR IMPROVEMENT ON COPPER LOOPS
• This is now real!
WHAT’S CHANGED?
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
VDSL2 VECTORING IN A NUTSHELL
EACH VDSL2 LINE INTERFERES WITH OTHER LINES IN CABLE BUNDLE
BUNDLE WITH COPPER PAIRS (TELEPHONE LINES)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200
at 400m
with normal VDSL240Mbps
100Mbpsat 400m
with VDSL2 Vectoring
Do
wn
stre
am
bitr
ate
[M
bp
s]
Distance[m]
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
VDSL2 VECTORING DELIVERS PREDICTABLE HIGH SPEED FOR ALL LINES
100Mbps @ 400mDOWNSTREAM
40Mbps @ 400mUPSTREAM
SAME PERFORMANCEFOR ALL LINES – GOOD AND BAD
=
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
VDSL2 VECTORINGBUILDING MOMENTUM
VDSL2 CUSTOMERS 90+ AT&T, Telmex, Oi, Belgacom, KPN, Telecom Austria, Sasktel, Turk Telekom, Telefonica, Telia Sonera, STC, TDC, Telenor
VECTORING TRIALS 55+ KPN, Orange, China Telecom, DTAG, Slovak Telecom, Tunisie Telecom
VECTORING CUSTOMERS 17 Belgacom, Telekom Austria
VECTORING LINES SHIPPED 1.3M August 2013
VDSL2 CUSTOMERS 90+ AT&T, Telmex, Oi, Belgacom, KPN, Telecom Austria, Sasktel, Turk Telekom, Telefonica, Telia Sonera, STC, TDC, Telenor
VDSL2 CUSTOMERS 90+ AT&T, Telmex, Oi, Belgacom, KPN, Telecom Austria, Sasktel, Turk Telekom, Telefonica, Telia Sonera, STC, TDC, Telenor
SOURCES: Next Gen PON, FTTH, and VDSL Deployment Strategies and Vendor Leadership, August 2012, Infonetics Research. VDSL2 Vectoring Deployment Strategies & Vendor Leadership, May 2013, Broadband Trends. Alcatel-Lucent.
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
COPPER EVOLUTIONTHE MOVE TO SMALLER NODES
Modular Multi-service access Dense Sealed
Market trend to smaller nodes driving increased bandwidth over short copper loops
FTTN FTTHFTTE
FTTBFTTdp
7750/7450
IPTV
VoIP
ISAM
ONT
(1 subscriber interface)
Remotes
(1<subscriber interface)
FTTEFiber to the entry point
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
COPPER EVOLUTIONG.FAST
Bell Labs started research on G.fast in Feb 2010• Working towards G.fast • Going from theory to practice as for VDSL2 vectoring
(vectoring started within ALU in 2005)• Driving force in G.fast standardization
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
G.fast pre-standard silicon G.fast standard silicon
G.fast products / deploymentBell Labs PoC
Vectoring addedApproved G.fast standard April OR December 2014
Most common misconceptions• G.fast products will be a reality soon.
Products only in 2016, standardization ongoing.• G.fast replaces vectoring and brings much higher bandwidths
G.fast targeted for very short loops <100-200m, hence requiring “deep fiber” investment.
G.fast performance VERY dependent on copper type, loop length. G.fast intended for very small nodes (e.g. 8 ports).
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
WHAT’S CHANGED?
2008
MIGRATING FROM FTTN TO FTTP IN THE FUTURE
• 5 years of field experience!
• Pallet of options.
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
FTTH FTTCurbFTTN
1000s-
10000s
100s10s
From ultra-high capacity FTTH …
FTTB
… over FTTN/B solutions with vectoring …
… to flexible FTTCurb micronodes with vectoring
FTTdp
FIBRE TO THE….FTTX TOOLKIT
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
2008
ALCATEL-LUCENT, LEADING THE GLOBAL FIBRE NATION
• Not a lot!
WHAT’S CHANGED?
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
UNPARALLELED EXPERIENCE IN NEXT GEN ACCESS#1 IN DSL, #2 IN GPON
250+ ADSLx/POTS CUSTOMERS
80% OF TOP-20OPERATORS
140+ PON FTTH CUSTOMERS
90+ VDSL2 CUSTOMERS
20+ P2P FTTHCUSTOMERS
17 VECTORINGCUSTOMERS
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
1. The Need for Speed
3. Economics of Deployment
4. The Way Forward
2008
2. Technology Options
3. Economics of Deployment
FTT$
ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
ECONOMICS OF DEPLOYMENT
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
WHAT’S CHANGED?
2008
STARTING POINT FOR FTT$: THE BANDWIDTH EQUATION
• More technology options
• More field experience
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
EMERGING OPERATOR STRATEGIESEXTENDING THE VALUE OF COPPER
OPTIONS TO INCREASE COPPER SPEEDS`1. Extend VDSL2
spectrum frequency.
2. Shorten copper loops.
3. Use multiple copper pairs (bonding).
4. Apply vectoring.
SOURCE: Get To Fast, Faster: Accelerate the Existing Copper Plant with VDSL2 Vectoring and Bonding, April 2013, Alcatel-Lucent.
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
SOLVING THE BITRATE EQUATION
ADSL/CO FTTN250 subs
FTTCurb48 subs
FTTB32 subs
FTTPole16 subs
FTTWall1 sub
FTTH-2
3
8
13
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Other Factors
Home Connection & Installation
Home Equipment
Civil Works & Cables
Cabinets or POPs
Splitters
Equipment
FTTx COST COMPARISON, CAPEX + INSTALLATION
INVESTMENT• FTTH 3-5x FTTN• The closer to the subscriber, the closer
the cost to FTTH
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TIME TO MARKET• Deploying FTTH is time consuming• Re-using existing copper can speed up
deployment
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BANDWIDTH• FTTH: 1G and more• FTTx: 100M (VDSL2 Vectoring today),
G.fast evolution to 100s
3
OTHER FACTORS• (-) Aerial fiber, existing ducts• (+) difficulty to enter the home4
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
POLICY SETTINGS1. The Need for Speed
3. Economics of Deployment
4. The Way Forward
2008
2. Technology Options
4. The Way Forward
ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
THE WAY FORWARD
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
WHAT’S CHANGED?
2008
A MIX OF MARKET AND POLICY APPROACHES WILL BE NEEDED
• Community Demand
• Government(s) Support
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
WHAT NOW IN AUSTRALIANBN EVOLUTION
1. NBN remains a world leading approach to broadband ubiquity, supporting new innovation, applications and services
2. Multi-mode access model aligned with global trends
3. Approach is achievable if reviews are efficient and momentum is maintained
4. The technology is proven; industry must remain proactive to guide the business model and implementation
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ANNUAL TECHNOLOGY SYMPOSIUM COPYRIGHT © 2013 ALCATEL-LUCENT. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED.
WHAT WILL WE TALK ABOUT IN 5 YEARS?
2013
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