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Airtel Africa plcResults for half year ended 30 September 2020
23 October 2020
DisclaimerImportant Information
By reading this presentation you agree to be bound by the following conditions.The information contained in this presentation in relation to Airtel Africa plc ("Airtel Africa") and its subsidiaries has been prepared solely for use at this presentation. The presentation is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, anyperson or entity that is a citizen or resident or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would require any registration or licensing within such jurisdiction.References in this presentation to "Airtel Africa", "Group", "we", "us" and "our" when denoting opinion refer to Airtel Africa and its subsidiaries.
Forward-looking statements
This document contains certain forward-looking statements including "forward-looking" statements made within the meaning of Section 21E of the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, regarding our intentions, beliefs or current expectationsconcerning, amongst other things, our results of operations, financial condition, liquidity, prospects, growth, strategies and the economic and business circumstances occurring from time to time in the countries and markets in which the Groupoperates.These statements are often, but not always, made through the use of words or phrases such as "believe," "anticipate," "could," "may," "would," "should," "intend," "plan," "potential," "predict," "will," "expect," "estimate," "project," "positioned,""strategy," "outlook", "target" and similar expressions.It is believed that the expectations reflected in this document are reasonable, but they may be affected by a wide range of variables that could cause actual results to differ materially from those currently anticipated.All such forward-looking statements involve estimates and assumptions that are subject to risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual future financial condition, performance and results to differ materially from the plans, goals,expectations and results expressed in the forward-looking statements and other financial and/or statistical data within this communication.Among the key factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those projected in the forward-looking statements are uncertainties related to the following: the impact of competition from illicit trade; the impact of adverse domestic orinternational legislation and regulation; changes in domestic or international tax laws and rates; adverse litigation and dispute outcomes and the effect of such outcomes on Airtel Africa’s financial condition; changes or differences in domestic orinternational economic or political conditions; the ability to obtain price increases and the impact of price increases on consumer affordability thresholds; adverse decisions by domestic or international regulatory bodies; the impact of market sizereduction and consumer down-trading; translational and transactional foreign exchange rate exposure; the impact of serious injury, illness or death in the workplace; the ability to maintain credit ratings; the ability to develop, produce or market newalternative products and to do so profitably; the ability to effectively implement strategic initiatives and actions taken to increase sales growth; the ability to enhance cash generation and pay dividends and changes in the market position, businesses,financial condition, results of operations or prospects of Airtel Africa.Past performance is no guide to future performance and persons needing advice should consult an independent financial adviser. The forward-looking statements contained in this document reflect the knowledge and information available to AirtelAfrica at the date of preparation of this document and Airtel Africa undertakes no obligation to update or revise these forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Readers are cautioned not to placeundue reliance on such forward-looking statements.No statement in this communication is intended to be, nor should be construed as, a profit forecast or a profit estimate and no statement in this communication should be interpreted to mean that earnings per share of Airtel Africa plc for the currentor any future financial periods would necessarily match, exceed or be lower than the historical published earnings per share of Airtel Africa plc.Financial data included in this document are presented in US$ rounded to the nearest millions. Therefore, discrepancies in the tables between totals and the sums of the amounts listed may occur due to such rounding.
Audience
The material in this presentation is provided for the purpose of giving information about Airtel Africa and its subsidiaries to investors only and is not intended for general consumers. Airtel Africa, its directors, employees, agents or advisers do notaccept or assume responsibility to any other person to whom this material is shown or into whose hands it may come, and any such responsibility or liability is expressly disclaimed.All numbers are reported currency numbers unless indicated differently. All figures are in USD ($) amounts, unless stated otherwise. The growth numbers YoY are provided on constant currency basis unless stated differently.
The results for the six months ended 30 September 2020 are unaudited and in the opinion of management, include all adjustments necessary for the fair presentation of the results of the same period. The financial information has been preparedbased on International Accounting Standard 34 (IAS 34) and apply the same accounting policies, presentation and methods of calculation as those followed in the preparation of the Group’s annual consolidated financial statements for the year ended31 March 2020 except to the extent required/ prescribed by IAS 34. This report should be read in conjunction with audited consolidated financial statements and related notes for the year ended 31 March 2020. The comparative information has beendrawn based on Airtel Africa plc’s Audited Consolidated Financial Statements for the year ended 31 March 2020 prepared under International Financial Reporting Standard (IFRS).
2
Operational Performance
Key Highlights
4
$1,815m
+16.4%
Revenue
Underlying revenue
44.7%
+110 bps
Margin
Underlying EBITDA
margin
$ 3.0c
($ 0.7c)
Earnings
EPS pre-exceptional
items-restated
$319m
+52%
Cash
Free cash flow
Notes:(1) All financial growth rates and underlying EBITDA margin improvement are presented in constant currency (2) Underlying EBITDA margin improvement in reported currency by +85bps and in constant currency by +110bps
+19.6%Q2’21 +153 bps ($0.1c) + 51.3%
Track record of consistent delivery of double-digit growth over last 11 quarters
H1’21
Delivering against our objectives
5
Mobile revenue
Mobile money revenue
Underlying EBITDA
Capex
Leverage
Mobile revenue growth of 15.3% with both voice and data growing
Mobile money revenue growth of 30.4%
Underlying EBITDA margin increased by 110bps to 44.7%
Capex outlook remains stable at $ 650 – 700 Mn pa
Leverage ratio broadly stable at 2.2x
DividendBoard declared interim dividend of $ 1.5 cents in line with
new progressive dividend policy
Note: Constant currency growth rates
6
Strong results across the businessV
oic
eD
ata
Mo
bile
Mo
ne
yRevenue GrowthCustomer Base Growth ARPU Growth
+12.0% +7.0%(4.1%)
Growth in constant currency
Q2’21 Voice usage per customer @ 235
minutes
EBITDA
$812m + 19.3% YoY
FCF
$319m + 52% YoY
Customers
116.4m + 12.0% YoY
EBITDA Margin
44.7% + 110bps
Q2’21 Data usage per customer @ 2.5GB
Q2’21 Transaction value per customer
@ $ 200
ARPU
$ 2.7 + 4.3% YoY
Gross Revenue
$1,815m+ 16.4% YoY
+24.1% +33.4%+10.1%
+29.6% +30.4%+2.4%
Strong results across the segments
7
Zambia
Nigeria
Gabon
Chad
Malawi
DRC
Niger
Madagascar
Uganda
Congo BTanzania
Kenya
Rwanda
Seychelles
Nigeria
Francophone Africa
East Africa• Continued expansion of network and distribution infrastructure
• Revenue up 20.2% and EBITDA growth of 21.5% YoY
Nigeria
East Africa
Francophone Africa
Note: All financial growth rates are presented in constant currency unless stated otherwise
• +20% growth in 5 out of 6 OPCOs
• Revenue up 21.9% and EBITDA growth of 35.1% YoY
• Performance continued to improve largely driven by growth in data and mobile
money partially offset by voice
• Revenue up 4.4% and EBITDA growth of 4.1% YoY
✓ Telecoms and mobile money are considered essential and critical
✓ We worked effortlessly to ensure the safety of our employees, customers and partners
✓ We have continued to work closely with governments, regulators, and suppliers to ensure our network remained fully operational and customers could access our services, and continued to support the economies of these countries and the communities we serve
✓ A relentless focus on execution and strong risk management approach, coupled with the resilience of the telecom sector, contributed to deliver revenue growth of 16.4% in constant currency in H1, which included the peak of the pandemic in our footprint. In the summer months, social distancing rules were eased, and performance also improved as the business was largely unaffected by COVID-19 and delivered revenue growth of 19.6% in constant currency in Q2.
✓ As Africa lagged the spread of the first wave, it may also lag the spread of a second wave. Despite the resilience demonstrated by the business during the course of the first wave, we are constantly monitoring how the situation is evolving to identify key risks and take immediate action to put in place adequate mitigation plans to minimise any potential disruptions from the re-introduction of stricter social distancing rules.
✓ We have strong liquidity position. Free cash flow increased 52% in H1 and our leverage ratio decreased to 2.2x, compared to the same period in the prior year.
Covid-19
8
9
Strategic Overview
Key pillars of our strategy
Attain leadership through a supply led demand strategy10
Multiple areas of additional upside
Win with cost
Win with people
Win with mobile money
Win withnetwork
Win with data
Africa
Win withcustomers
Partnering the nation
Peak hour data
Utilisation at 45%
A modernized, growing, future ready network
87% sites
on single RAN44,000+ km of Fibre
4G Leadership
70% sites are 4G
3 countries with 100% 4G
11
21,936
21,821
18,274
12,845
2,310
2,408
3,976
4,055
24,246
24,229
22,250
16,900
Total Sites
2G Sites
3G Sites
4G Sites
Site Count % Contribution
70%
92%
100%
100%
Expanding Coverage High data capacity
(Tb/day)
67%
6,146
10,253
Q2'20 Q2'21
Total Capacity
Win with customers
12
Successful adoption of our strategy during the lockdown
✓ Expanding distribution network
✓ Continued focus on SIM card availability and
penetration in rural markets
✓ Continuation of smart offerings – encouraging
data usage
✓ Added 12.5 million of customers from Q2’20,
+12% YoY driving double-digit revenue
growth
91.2 94.1
97.9 98.9 99.7
103.9 107.1
110.6 111.5
116.4
Q1'19 Q2'19 Q3'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Q2'20 Q3'20 Q4'20 Q1'21 Q2'21
Customer base (m)
Win with data by increasing 4G users and data ARPU
13
4G users growth leading to…. growth in data usage and data ARPU
2G
3G
4G
Wt. Avg ARPU ($)
0.3 34% 0.1
2.5
Q2’21 ARPU Mix (YoY)
ARPU ($) Mix (%)
Data Customers 39.6m vs 31.9m in Q2’20
2.2 36% 0.8
5.2 30% 1.6
Data usage at 2.5 GB per customer vs 1.7 GB per customer in Q2’20
vs 2.3 in Q2’20
Note: All financial growth rates are presented in constant currency unless stated otherwise
H1’21 Growth (YoY)
Data usage per sub
↑ 57%
Data ARPU
↑ 10.1%
Data revenue
↑ 33.4%
Data customers
↑ 24.1%
8ppts
6ppts
2ppts
Change from Q2’20
Winning with Mobile Money
1414
Strong performance
+30% Customer base at
20m
+14.5%Transaction value
per subs
Transaction value & Revenue
Growth driven by customer penetration increase
Increasing customer penetration
*excluding Nigeria
14.9% 17.3%
24.0%*27.8%*
H1'20 H1'21
PartnershipsIncrease new caseDistribution
expansionAssured float
Expansion of merchant
ecosystem
103 146
181
12 15
21
-
5
10
15
20
25
H1'19 H1'20 H1'21
H1’21
FY’20
Partnerships
Multiple areas of
additional upside
Consistent and simple strategy for growth
15
Our Aspirations:
Growing ahead of market to increase revenue market share
Airtel Money to become the currency of choice
Monetisation of assets (Towers + Fibre)
Potential upside from fixed wireless home broad band (HBB) and Enterprise
Partnering the nation
Africa
Win with network
Win with customers
Win with data
Win with mobile money
Win with people
Win with cost
To continue benefiting from operating leverage and effect of scale
Financial Performance
A strong set of financial results
1717
Revenue
$1,815m
+ 16.4% YoY
EBITDA
$812m
+ 19.3% YoY
EBITDA margin
44.7%
+ 110 bps YoY
Leverage 1
2.2x
down from 2.3x YoY
FCF 2
$319m
EPS before exceptional items 3
$3.0c
($0.7c)+ 52% YoY
Declared an interim dividend of $ 1.5 cents per share
Notes: Growth provided as constant currency growth; 1 Calculated as Gross Debt (incl lease liabilities) less Cash & Cash Equivalent / Last 12 months EBITDA; 2 Calculated as EBITDA less Capex invested less Cash Interest, less Cash Taxes less Changes in Operating Working Capital; reported currency growth 3 Excluding one-time derivative gain of $ 46 Mn, restated eps grew 19%
Broad-based revenue growth across voice, data and mobile money
18
Revenue $m
Note: Other includes messaging, VAS, enterprise, site sharing, handset sale and intra-segment eliminations.
+30.4%+33.4%+7.0%
+16.4% ($256m)
On a 12 months basis, we estimate that 1% of Nigerian naira devaluation will have a negative $14m impact on revenues, $8m on underlying
EBITDA and $7m on finance costs.
Constant currency growth (%)
Nigeria – Strong double-digit growth
19
Revenue
$718m
+ 20.2% YoY
EBITDA
$386m
+ 21.5% YoY
EBITDA margin
53.8%
+ 60 bps YoY
Customer base
44.1m
+ 11.5% YoY
ARPU
$2.8
+ 7.0% YoY
Op FCF
$289m
+ 42.6% YoY
Notes: Growth in constant currency; (1) Customer base as of 30 September 2020
▪ Strong 4G network accelerated rollout of 4G network (76% of sites are 4G)
▪ Revenue increase 20.2% - driven by growth across all products
▪ Voice revenue - double digit growth 11.4%, as a result of customer base growth and growth of usage per customer
▪ Data revenue growth 38.1% - due to expansion of 4G network
▪ EBITDA margin of 53.8%, margin expansion of 60 bps
▪ Operating free cash flow up 42.6%, driven by double-digit underlying EBITDA growth
East Africa – Broad-based growth across voice, data and mobile money
20
▪ Revenue increase 21.9% - driven by growth across all products
▪ Voice revenue - double digit growth 12.8%, as a result of customer base growth and growth of usage per customer
▪ Data revenue growth 29.6% - due to expansion of 4G network and smart product offerings
▪ Mobile Money revenue up 42.9% in constant currency due to increase in customer base and transaction value per customer
▪ Underlying EBITDA margin increased as a result of revenue growth and cost efficiencies
▪ Operating free cash flow up as a result of improvement in underlying EBITDA.
Revenue
$659m
+ 21.9% YoY
EBITDA
$292m
+ 35.1% YoY
EBITDA margin
44.3%
+ 431 bps YoY
Customer base(1)
51.3m
+ 13.9% YoY
ARPU
$2.2
+ 7.7% YoY
Op FCF
$211m
+ 34.9% YoY
Notes: Growth in constant currency; (1) Customer base as of 30 September 2020
During the period “Pay as you Go tariffs” in certain markets were updated and this resulted in revenue reallocation of bundle products of voice and data in such tariffs. On a like for like basis voice and data revenue growth was 8.7% and 38% respectively.
Francophone Africa – Improved Q2 performance driven by data & mobile money
21
▪ Improved performance in Q2’21, +6.4% in constant currency driven by data and mobile money, despite macroeconomic weakness
▪ Voice revenue impacted by IUC charges in key countries
▪ Data revenue growth 29.2% -driven by higher data usage and expansion of 4G network
▪ Revenue in mobile money up 12.5% due to double-digit revenue growth in DRC
▪ Underlying EBITDA margin of 32.8%, was broadly flat compared with previous period
▪ Operating free cash flow up due to improvement in underlying EBITDA and lower capital expenditure.
Revenue
$445m
4.4% YoY
EBITDA
$146m
4.1% YoY
EBITDA margin
32.8%
(9) bps YoY
Customer base(1)
21.1m
+ 8.7% YoY
ARPU
$3.7
(1.9%) YoY
Op FCF
$110m
+54.5% YoY
Notes: Growth in constant currency; (1) Customer base as of 30 September 2020
es
Mobile money continued to deliver strong growth in EBITDA
Note: Growth in constant currency
22
es
Customer base (m) Transaction Value ($Bn)
Revenue ($m) EBITDA ($m) and Margin (%)
29.6%
30.4%
45.7%
12.9
15.5
20.1
H1'19 H1'20 H1'21
12.1
15.0
20.7
H1'19 H1'20 H1'21
102.9
145.8
181.2
H1'19 H1'20 H1'21
36.7
70.2
88.1 35.7%
48.2% 48.6%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
-
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
H1'19 H1'20 H1'21
Underlying EBITDA Margin
Consistent EBITDA growth and margin expansion
23
EBITDA $m
+16.4%
+19.3% ($132m)
Note: Expenses includes interconnect cost, airtel money commission, regulatory charges and handsets cost
On a 12 months basis, we estimate that 1% of Nigerian naira devaluation will have a negative $14m impact on revenues, $8m on underlying
EBITDA and $7m on finance costs.
A transparent and balanced capital allocation policy
24
Sustainable capital
structure
Return cash to shareholders
Efficient capital
investments
Leverage target of < 2.0x net debt / EBITDA
Net debt/EBITDA of 2.2x
The group’s Capex (excluding spectrum) to remain stable at $ 650 –
700 Mn per annum
New progressive dividend policy which aims to grow the dividend annually by a mid- to high-single digit percentage from a base of 4c per share for FY 2021, until reported leverage falls
below 2.0x net debt to EBITDA.
Interim dividend of $ 1.5 cents per share
1
2
3
Strong free cash flow generation, with free cash flow up 52%
25
$m
+ 52%
Note: Airtel Africa definition of FCF does not include among others: leases (both capital & interest), intangible capex, dividends, effects of significant acquisitions, disposals, effects of extraordinary events etc.
Leverage reduction to 2.2x of net debt to EBITDA
26
Note: Leverage calculated as Gross Debt (including lease liabilities) less Cash & Cash Equivalent / Last 12 months EBITDA ; 1. LTM underlying EBITDA as of September, 2020 of $1,607m; 2. LTM underlying EBITDA as of September, 2019 of $1,402m 3. This represents present value of lease payments for assets taken on lease
Leverage
▪ Weighted average interest rate at 4.8% is flat as compared to previous period
Leverage
$m
xLTM
Underlying
EBITDA
$m
xLTM
Underlying
EBITDA
Foreign Currency: 2,952 1.8x 3,151 2.2x
- Holdco 2,383 1.5x 2,683 1.9x
- OPCOs 569 0.4x 468 0.3x
Local Currency: 348 0.2x 321 0.2x
- OPCOs 348 0.2x 321 0.2x
Leases3
1,230 0.8x 1,188 0.8x
Total debt 4,531 2.8x 4,659 3.3x
Cash and cash equivalents 1,072 0.7x 1,469 1.0x
Total net debt 3,459 2.2x 3,191 2.3x
As of September 30,
2020
As of September 30,
20191 2
9.0x
6.8x
3.0x
2.1x 2.2x
0.0x
1.0x
2.0x
3.0x
4.0x
5.0x
6.0x
7.0x
8.0x
9.0x
10.0x
FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 H1'21
Restated EPS before exceptional items
271) Calculation based on restated weighted average shares outstanding - 3,758m 2) Others include change in minority share holder PAT and profit/(loss) on joint ventures
$ cents
Restated EPS before exceptional items was $ 3 cents, down by 20%, as a result of i) increase in tax charges due to higher operating profit and withholding tax on dividend; and ii) recognition of derivatives gain of $46m in previous period. Excluding one-time derivative gain of $ 46 Mn, restated eps grew 19%
1 121
Summary and outlook
28
• 16.4% revenue growth, 11 quarters of consistent double
digit revenue growth
• 110 bps of Underlying EBITDA margin expansion, 11
quarters of consistent underlying EBITDA margin expansion
• Strong free cash flow generation, up by 52%
• Net debt to EBITDA ratio broadly stable at 2.2x
• Declared an interim dividend $ 1.5 cents per share, with
new progressive dividend policy to focus on growth
opportunities and faster deleveraging
• Mid-term opportunity remains unchanged driven by strong
population growth and need for increased connectivity and
financial inclusion
• As Africa lagged the spread of the first wave, it may also lag the
spread of a second wave. Despite the resilience demonstrated
by the business during the course of the first wave, we are
constantly monitoring how the situation is evolving to identify
key risks and put in place adequate mitigation plans to
minimise any potential disruptions from the re-introduction of
stricter social distancing rules
H1’21 Strong set of results Our outlook
29
Appendix
Track record of consistent delivery11 quarters of double-digit revenue growth and EBITDA margin expansion
Underlying EBITDA ($m)
Revenue ($m)
31
Revenue (Constant currency growth YoY; %)
Notes:1) Revenue growth rates till Q4’20 are presented in 1st March 2019 constant currency and Q1’21 onwards in 31st March 2020 constant currency2) Q3-20 underlying EBITDA includes onetime benefit of $ 3.2 m as a result of the reassessment of the customers ‘life cycle’ pertaining to H1’20
Underlying EBITDA margin (%)
42.6% 43.2% 43.3% 44.0% 43.7% 44.1% 45.2% 44.1% 44.1% 45.3%
14.4% 11.7% 12.0% 10.0% 10.2% 12.6% 14.2% 17.9% 13.0% 19.6%
317 332 339 344 348
372
399 397 375
437 745
769 783 781 796 844
883 899 851
965
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Q1-19 Q2-19 Q3-19 Q4-19 Q1-20 Q2-20 Q3-20 Q4-20 Q1-21 Q2-21
EBITDA Revenue
Africa: Demographic and market potential
32
Significant potential for growth across voice, data and mobile money
Source: United Nations. Analysys Mason, Ampere Analysis, Omdia, Global Findex.
Note: (1) Includes the Caribbean; (2) Includes the Middle East and Oceania; (3) The 14 countries where Airtel Africa operates, which are Niger, Chad, Nigeria, Uganda, Kenya, Gabon, DRC, Seychelles, Tanzania, Congo, Rwanda, Malawi, Zambia and
Madagascar
Growing population, high youth share Low mobile penetration
19% 16% 24% 31% 32%
0.7%
(0.0%)
0.9% 0.8%
2.4% 2.8%
NA Europe LatAm APAC Africa Footprint
151% 149%
102%
124%
85%74%
87% 86%76% 69%
52% 46%
NA Europe LatAm APAC Africa Footprint
Unique user
penetration.
Dec 2020E
2024 mobile data traffic vs. 2020
90%77%
56%49%
12%1.6%
NA Europe LatAm APAC Africa Footprint
% of adult population with a bank account – 2017
94% 95%
55%
74%
46%40%
NA Europe LatAm APAC Africa Footprint
4.9x 3.8x 3.4x 2.7x 4.2x
% of total population age 10-24, as at Dec 2020E
Population CAGR 2020-2024E, %
23%
Mobile subs penetration – 2020E
Fixed home broadband penetration % Low banking penetration
(1) (3)(2)
(2)(1)
(1) (3)(2)
(3)(1) (3)(2)
4.6x
Fixed home broadband penetration 2020E, %
Effective tax rate and adjusted effective tax rate
33
Profit before
taxation
Income tax
expense Tax Rate %
Profit before
taxation
Income tax
expense Tax Rate %
1.00 Reported Effective tax rate $m 281 136 49% 316 88 28%
2.00 Adjusted for :
2.01 Exceptional Items $m 7 10 (46) 28
2.02 Foreign exchange rate movements for non-DTA
operating companies & holding companies$m 36 (28)
2.03 One-off tax adjustment $m 6 1
3.00 Effective tax rate (ETR) $m 324 152 47% 242 117 48%
4.00 Deferred tax trigerred during the year $m (10) (27)
5.00 Adjusted ETR $m 324 142 44% 242 90 37%
Sep-19 SN Description
Unit of
measure
Half year ended
Sep-20
Finance cost & FOREX
34
Total Finance Charges (excluding exceptional items) higher by $43.2m due to:
▪ Finance charges (excluding derivatives and Forex gain/loss) reduced by $1.3m
▪ Interest cost reduced by $3.7m due to repayment of $365m Bonds.
▪ Other finance charges had one-time cost of $5.5m in previous period.
▪ Above reduction is partially off-set by lower interest income of $10m due to reduction in interest rates and lower deposits.
▪ Higher derivatives and forex loss of $44.5m is mainly due interest rate swap hedging gain of $46m on bonds in previous period.
Description H1'21 H1'20 Change$m $m $m
Interest cost on gross debt 147.7 151.3 (3.7)
Interest Income (4.5) (14.5) 10.0
Net interest Cost 143.2 136.8 6.3
Other finance charges 12.5 20.2 (7.7)
Finance Charges (Excluding
derivatives and Forex)155.7 157.0 (1.3)
Derivatives and Forex (gain)/loss 35.5 (9.1) 44.5
Total Finance Charges
(Excluding exceptional items)191.2 148.0 43.2
Exceptional items 0.0 0.9 (0.9)
Total Finance Charges
(Including exceptional items)191.2 148.9 42.3
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