Agricultural Development, Nutrition and Health: Synergies or Tradeoffs ?
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Agricultural Development, Nutrition and Health:
Synergies or Tradeoffs?
C-FARE Organized Symposium at the AAEA annual meetings Washington, DC -- 6 August 2013
Will MastersProfessor and Chair, Department of Food and Nutrition Policy, Tufts University
www.nutrition.tufts.edu | http://sites.tufts.edu/willmasters
Nutrition makes for good headlines...
Source: K. Fuglie and S. L. Wang, “New Evidence Points to Robust but Uneven Productivity Growth in Global Agriculture,” Amber Waves, September 2012. Washington: Economic Research Service, USDA.
From Malthus...
Is food now sufficiently abundant that it no longer constrains nutrition & health?
to Rosling
Source: FAO, The State of Food Insecurity in the World 2012. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization.
Some regions are still far from abundanceFood supply and real income by region, 1990-2010
Africa has the least food, and is also the poorest
Overall, malnutrition is a disease of poverty0
2040
6080
WH
Z <-
2 or
>+2
am
ong
child
ren
unde
r 5
4 6 8 10 12Log of real income (purchasing power in 2005 US dollars
Note: Data shown are for 1970-99 (darker shading) and 2000-2010 (lighter shading), with 95% confidence intervals around linear regressions. Sample sizes are N=244 across 115 countries for 1970-1999 and N=276 across 125 countries for 2000-2011. Source: Author's calculation. Income data are from Penn World Table Version 7.1 (Nov. 2012), online at https://pwt.sas.upenn.edu. Overweight and stunting estimates are from WHO, Global Health Observatory Data Repository, downloaded 2 Aug. 2013 from http://apps.who.int/gho/data/node.main.1096.
(WHO estimates, N=441 from 118 countries)All child malnutrition (stunting or overweight) and real income, 1970-99 and 2000-10
...and many non-dietary factors intervene e.g. sanitation and disease
Note: Observations are nationally representative country totals from 130 DHS surveys in 65 countries, 1990-2010, with circles are proportional to population. Source: Dean Spears (2013), http://riceinstitute.org.
India
Exposure to open defecation and childrens’ height-for-age by country, 1990-2010
A variety of logical frameworks are used to diagnose problems and guide intervention
The UNICEF framework
The FAO FIVIMS framework
Each logical framework posits similarbut somewhat different relationships
The Massett (2011) framework, with 7 IFPRI-USAID pathways highlighted by Webb (2013)
The Gillespie et al. (2012) framework
The causal framework of economics makes a specific prediction
Source: W.A. Masters, “Economic Development, Government Policies and Food Consumption”, chapter 14 in Jayson Lusk, Jutta Roosen and Jason Shogren, eds., Oxford Handbook on the Economics of Food Consumption and Policy, 2011.
If households are actively trading, then farm production could be separable from consumption
Diets and health then depend on income, prices,access and use, rather than justfarm production...
How do recent studies of agriculture’s nutritional impacts define “agriculture”?
Source: Webb P, Kennedy E. 2012. Impacts of Agriculture on Nutrition: Nature of the Evidence and Research Gaps. Research Briefing Paper No. 4. Boston, MA: Feed the Future Nutrition Innovation Lab.
Review paper Number
of studies reviewed
Period of studies
reviewedAgricultural activities included
Ruel (2001) 14 1995-1999 Home gardens, small ruminants, aqua-culture
Berti et al. (2004) 30 1985-2001 Home gardens, animal husbandry, irrigation, cash cropping, credit, land distribution
LeRoy & Frongillo (2007) 14 1987-2003 Animal husbandry, aquaculture, poultry, credit, behavior change communication (BCC)
World Bank (2007) 52 1985-2007 All forms of agriculture activity
Haider & Bhutta (2008) 29 1985-2004 Home gardens, animal husbandry, BCC
Kawarazuka (2010) 23 2000-2009 Aquaculture
Masset et al. (2011) 23 1990-2009 Biofortification, home gardens, aquaculture, poultry, husbandry, dairy development.
Arimond et al. (2011) 39 1987-2003 All forms of agriculture activity
Girard et al. (2012) 37 1990- Home gardens, biofortification, BCC, husbandry, poultry, aquaculture
Recent Evidence Reviews of the Impacts of Agriculture on Nutrition
Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), accessed 11 Aug 2012, based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (April 2011).
1950
-1955
1960
-1965
1970
-1975
1980
-1985
1990
-1995
2000
-2005
2010
-2015
2020
-2025
2030
-2035
2040
-2045
2050
-2055
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
SS AfricaWorldSo Asia
Rural population growth eventually falls below zero;land per farmer can then expand with mechanization
Africa had over 2% annual growth in the rural population, for over 30 years!
Rural population growth rates by region, 1950-2055
Meanwhile, farmers face rapid, sustained rural population growth & falling land/worker
2013
Africa is now experiencing Asia’s earlier slowdown in rural
population growth, but less quickly
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
WorldSSAfricaSoAsia
Africa had the world’s most severe demographic burden (>90 children per 100 adults)
Child and elderly dependency rates by region (0-15 and 65+), 1950-2055
...and have unprecedented numbers of children per adult earner or care-giver
Africa is now experiencing Asia’s earlier "demographic gift",
but less quickly
Source: Calculated from UN Population Division, World Population Projections (http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp), accessed 11 Aug 2012, based on UN Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (April 2011).
2013
19601962
19641966
19681970
19721974
19761978
19801982
19841986
19881990
19921994
19961998
20002002
20042006
20082010
20120.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
World
Southeast Asia
South Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
USDA estimates of average cereal grain yields (mt/ha), 1960-2013
Source: Calculated from USDA , PS&D data (www.fas.usda.gov/psdonline), downloaded 2 Aug 2013. Results shown are each region’s total production per harvested area in barley, corn, millet, mixed grains, oats, rice, rye, sorghum and wheat.
It’s never too late for a green revolution
Higher agricultural productivity lifts farmers out of poverty and into the dietary transition
Source: FAO, The State of Food and Agriculture 2013: Food Systems for Better Nutrition. Rome: FAO, June.
Beyond Malthus, universal challenges: Socioeconomic inequality, diet quality etc...
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