AGBU EUROPE BRIEFING THE EUROPEAN UNION ......AGBU EUROPE BRIEFING THE EUROPEAN UNION SHOULD ENGAGE WITH NAGORNO-KARABAKH AND PROVIDE AID 1. Our objectives Since the end of the Karabakh

AGBUEUROPEBRIEFINGTHEEUROPEANUNIONSHOULDENGAGEWITHNAGORNO-KARABAKH

ANDPROVIDEAID1.OurobjectivesSincetheendoftheKarabakhwar,in1994,theEuropeanUnion(EU)hasavoidedestablishinganycontactsintheterritoryofNagorno-Karabakhandhasfailedtoprovideanyassistancetoitslong-sufferingpopulation1.Internationalhumanrightsandhumanitarianorganisationsareallbutabsentfromtheterritory.Yet,therearemanyreasonsfortheEUtogetinvolvedinNagorno-Karabakh,toprovidereliefandaidtopeoplelivingthereandtoengagewithcivilsocietyandelectedrepresentativesthere.AGBUEuropethereforeurgestheEU’sdecision-makerstomusterpoliticalcourageandusetheinstrumentscreatedtopromotepeaceandsolidarityinordertobreaktheisolationofpeopleofKarabakh.Whiletheseincrementaladvanceswouldnotendtheconflictinthemselves,theywouldneverthelessrepresentthemostsubstantialshiftinEuropeanpolicyinthepast20years.TheywouldendtheisolationofKarabakhandofitspeople,substantiallycontributingtopeaceandsecurityintheregion.2.TheneedforassistanceinNagorno-Karabakh

About150000peopleliveinKarabakhtoday,facingconsiderablechallengesdaily.

• TherecentFour-DayWar(April2-4,2016)hasforcedmanypeopletofleetheirhomes.TheKarabakhauthoritiesmustnowfindtheresourcestorebuildtheirhousesandresettledisplacedpeople.

• Thereareallegationsofwarcrimescommittedduring

theFour-daywar:prisonersofwarexecutedbyAzerbaijanisoldiers,someinparticularlybarbaricfashionandcivilianstorturedandkilled.ThebodiesofsomeNKRsoldiersandcivilianskilledwerereportedlymutilated.

• Karabakhiseffectivelyundersiege,withfrontlineson

itsNorthern,Eastern,andSouthernborders.ItisconnectedtoArmenia(itselfunderablockadefromAzerbaijanandTurkey)byalongmountainroad.Airtransportisimpossible,withAzerbaijanthreateningtoshootdownanyaircraftlandinginKarabakh,including

1 The EU’s sole project in connection with Karabakh, the European Partnership for the Peaceful Settlement of the Conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh (EPNK, http://www.epnk.org) promotes dialogue between individuals from Azerbaijan and Armenia and does not involve any assistance to the population of Nagorno-Karabakh.

civilianaircraft.Theeconomyisthereforeheavilyhandicappedbythesituationandill-equippedtofullycatertotheneedsofthepeople.

ThissituationalsodisruptsthelivesofthecivilianpopulationofKarabakhinmanyways.Forinstance:

• Shootingsandthethreatofviolencehaveasignificantpsychologicalimpactonthepopulation.Morethan86%ofwomeninvillagesclosetothefrontlinereportedlysufferfrommentalhealthissuessuchasdepression,stressandneuropsychologicalconditionsthoughttoberelatedtothehardshipsoflifeonthefrontline2.

• Nagorno-Karabakhhasoneoftheworld'shighestpercapitaminecasualtyrates,onparwith

Afghanistan,accordingtotheHaloTrust,theleadinginternationalexpertsinmine-clearance.Aquarterofthesevictimsarechildren.“Beyondthephysicaldanger,minesandclusterbombscrippletheeconomybydenyingfarmerstheuseoftheirland.Manydonotknowthateveryyearthereareciviliancasualties...in2014,therewere8accidentsresultingintwodeathsandtwoamputations”3.Accordingtotheleadingcharityinmine-clearance,theHaloTrust:“Nagorno-Karabakh’sunrecognizedstatuspreventsmanygovernmentsfromfundinghumanitarianactivitiesintheterritoryandHALOreceivesnofundingfromtheArmenianGovernment.Untilrecently,ouronlymajordonorinKarabakhwastheUSGovernment,throughUSAID,butitsfundingisrestrictedtolandwithintheSovietboundaryoftheautonomousoblastofNagorno-Karabakh”4.

Fromamoralandhumanitarianpointofview,thereisnoquestionthatassistanceisbadlyneeded.TheEUshouldprovidebothmaterialandmoralsupporttothelong-sufferingpopulationofKarabakhbecausethatisconsistentwithitsprinciplesandpolicies:theEUprovidesassistanceinallregionsofitsneighbourhoodthatneedit,regardlessofthepoliticalstatusoftheterritoriesinquestion.Indeed,KarabakhisnottheonlyunrecognizedstateintheEuropeanneighbourhood:SouthOssetia,Abkhazia,TransnistriaandNorthernCyprus,amongothers,fallunderthesamecategoryandtheyallreceivesubstantialassistancefromtheEU.ProjectsarealsobeingimplementedinMoldova'sbreakawayregion,Transdnistria.Farfrombeingostracized,TransdnistriawillevenbenefitfromthefavourabletraderegimenegotiatedbetweenMoldovaandtheEU5.AsforKosovo,alsoonceanon-recognizedterritory6,ithasreceivedatotalof2billionEurosinassistance,muchofitbeforetheprocessofinternationalrecognitionhadbegun.ThereshouldthereforebenoreasontosingleoutKarabakhforaboycottandisolation.TheEU’sboycottofKarabakhisnotonlyincomprehensiblefromahumanitarianpointofview,itisalsocounterproductive.Thestakesintheregionarehigh.Therisksofthawingoftheconflictandescalationofhostilitieshavebeenwidelyrecognised,aswellasthreatsofotherregionalactorsbeingdrawnin.TheEU'scurrentstanceisoftenrationalisedasthebestwaytostayengagedandhelppacifytheregion:upsettingAzerbaijanonthisquestion,someEUofficialsargue,couldharmtheirrelationsanddiminishEUleverage.

2 https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/02/living-in-one-of-europes-frozen-conflicts-movses-nagorno-

karabakh. Accessed August 2016 3 http://www.landminefreeartsakh.com/about-us/. Acessed November 2016 4 https://www.halotrust.org/minefreenk/our-role-in-nagorno-karabakh/. Accessed November 2016. 5 http://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/moldova-eu-commission-clarifies-intentions-about-

transnistria/. Accessed November 2016. 6 Several EU member states still do not recognize Kosovo’s independence, including Spain, Slovakia, Cyprus, Romania, and Greece.

Indeed,theRepublicofAzerbaijaninvestsconsiderablepoliticalanddiplomaticenergyaswellasfinancialresourcestoenforceitsblockadeofKarabakhandensurethatforeignpoliticalleadersandjournalistsstayoutofthesmallterritory.TheyevenmaintainablacklistofallthosewhohavetravelledtoKarabakh,andconsiderthempersonaenongratae.TheEUhassofarindulgedAzerbaijan'sintransigenceattheexpenseofitsownvalues,aswellasitsleverageandauthority.Butthisapproachiscounterproductive.Europe'spolicyofplacatingthemostintransigentpartyinthedisputediminishesitsleverageandauthority.TheEUisfailingtohelpreducetensions,buildbridgesorcreateanatmosphereoftrust.Thatislikelytopromote,ratherthanprevent,instability.TheEU'sinterestsandtheinterestsofpeaceandprosperitywouldthereforebemuchbetterservedensuringthatitsinvolvementisfullyinlinewithitscorevaluesandprinciples:engagingwiththepeopleofKarabakhwouldbeagoodfirststepinthisregard.

BACKGROUND:NAGORNO–KARABAKHANDEUPOLICYNagorno-KarabakhisasmallterritorybetweenArmeniaandAzerbaijan.ItwasincorporatedintheSovietRepublicofAzerbaijanduringtheSovietera.However,itsoverwhelminglyArmenianpopulationfeltdiscriminatedagainstundertheSovietregime,priorto1991,andsoughttotakeadvantageofthedemocratizationoftheSovietUnioninthelate1980'stovoicetheirgrievances.TheoverreactiononthepartofAzerbaijaniauthoritiesintheformofpogromsanddeportationsofvillagerspromptedtheformationofself-defencegroups.Thissituationeventuallyledtoawarfromlate1991toMay1994.Againstallexpectations,theKarabakh“self-defencearmy”wonthewar,butnopeacetreatywassigned.Instead,aRussian-brokeredcease-firewasconcludedinMay1994betweenKarabakh,AzerbaijanandArmenia.Itremainstheonlyfragilefoundationforthecurrentstatus-quo.Since1994,negotiationshavemadenoprogressasAzerbaijaninsistsonfullsovereigntyovertheterritory,butrefusestoprovidecrediblesecurityguaranteestothepopulationofKarabakh.Atthesametime,Azerbaijanrefusestonegotiatedirectlywiththoseconcerned,theleadershipofNagorno-Karabakh,seekingtocreatethefictionthatthewarresultednotfromgrossmistreatmentofaminority,butfromanaggressionbytheRepublicofArmenia.TheRepublicofArmeniaforitspartrefusestoagree,onbehalfofabsentKarabakhnegotiators,toAzerbaijanicontroloverKarabakh.Aftermorethan20yearsofnegotiations,thetalksoverthefuturestatusofKarabakhhaveturnedintoarathertheoreticalexerciseduetothetotalabsenceoftrustbetweentheparties.Armenianscomplainthatprioragreementshavebeenroutinelyfloutedandhaverepeatedlypointedouttheatrocitiescommittedduringthewar.TheyarealsoconcernedthatthelevelofhostilerhetoricbypublicauthoritiesandthemediaissuchinAzerbaijanthatpeacefulcoexistenceisunthinkableunlesstheeffectsofthisrhetoricarereversed.ThesituationisfurthercomplicatedbythegeopoliticalgamesbeingplayedintheCaucasus:Russiaseekstopreserveitssphereofinfluence,Turkeyseekstoexpanditsowninfluenceintheregion,particularlyinTurkicandMuslimareas,whiletheUSseekstoassertsitsownglobalauthorityandoilinterests.Bakuisnowamajoroilproducer,andtheCaucasusisabottleneckforcommunicationbetweencontinents,especiallyforthetransportofhydrocarbons.ObserversoftheconflictoverKarabakhhaveforyearswarnedthatwarcouldflareupatanytimeandcouldtriggerawiderconflagrationinvolvingsomeoftheregionalpowers,includingTurkey,aNATOmember,RussiaandIran.Foryears,ceasefireviolationshavebeenoccurringbetweenthetwoarmiesatthecontactline,causinghundredsofcasualties.Thesefearshavebeenconfirmedbytheoutbreakofthe“Four-DayWar”inApril2016.AnattackonseveralfrontsbyAzerbaijanitroopsledtofiercefightingandanumberofcasualtiesestimatedbetween100and350,includingcivilians.Thiswasthemostsevereepisodeoftheconflictsincethecease-fireof1994.Thefall-outfromtheSyrianwarisaprimeexampleoftheprofoundeffectsthatconflictsintheEuropeanperipherycanhavethroughoutthecontinent.CanEuropereallyaffordanotherpreventablewar?EUPolicytowardsKarabakhSincetheendoftheSovietUnion,differentEuropeaninstitutionshavesoughttoextendtheEuropeanmodelofcooperationbetweenstatestoformerSovietRepublics,includingtheCaucasus.TheEuropeanUnioninparticularhassoughttocontributetothiseffortwithitsEuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicyandtheEasternPartnership,thegoalofwhichwastopromotestability,democracyandprosperityinthesecountriesthroughacloserintegrationwiththesinglemarketandthroughcloserpoliticalcooperation.Thevisionwasthatgrowingeconomicinterdependence,combinedwithawide-ranging“dialogue”,wouldpromoteconstructivecooperationratherthanconflictbetweenstates.Itisconsistentwiththisapproach

thattheEUhasavoidedantagonisingAzerbaijananddecidednottoengagewithKarabakhinanyway.However,theEasternPartnershippolicyhasclearlyshownitslimitsinrecentyears,particularlyintheUkraineandintheCaucasus,whichnowexperiencegreaterinstabilitythanbefore.Ironically,itispreciselysincetheEUfirstformulateditspolicyfortheregion,in2003,topromotedemocracy,amarketeconomyandconflictresolutioninthearea,thatAzerbaijanhassolidifiedintoahereditaryoildictatorshipwhoseleader,IlhamAliyev,exacerbatesnationalismandhatredoftheArmenianstoquelldissentandconsolidatehiscontroloverhiscountry.AsAzerbaijaniauthoritieshavealsosystematicallyrefusedtocooperatewithanyArmeniansinmultilateralfora,theEU'sinvestmentindialoguehasclearlyfailedtobuildbridgesbetweenArmeniansandAzerbaijanis.Withthecurrentapproachtotheregionreachingitsinherentlimitations,itistimetoquestionitsapproachtotheregionandengagewiththepopulationofNagorno-Karabakh.