Africa’s Changing Farm Structure and the Employment Challenge by Thomas Jayne

AFRICA’S CHANGING FARM STRUCTURE AND THE EMPLOYMENT CHALLENGE

T.S. Jayne, J. Chamberlin, D. Headey, A. Chapoto, M. Muyanga, N. Sitko

Photo: Christiaensen and Demery (2007)

Presentation at IFPRI Headquarters, Washington, DC, September 4, 2014

62% < 25 years old

Age pyramids, rural SSA, 2015

[0-4]

[5-9]

[10-14]

[15-19]

[20-24]

[25-29]

[30-34]

[35-39]

[40-44]

[45-49]

[50-54]

[55-59]

[60-64]

[65-69]

[70-74]

[75-79]

[80+]

-10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10%

Rural

Male Female

Source: UN Pop Council, 2013

Conclusion 1

Africa’s arable land is highly concentrated,

both between and within countries

Non-forested unutilized land1

(million ha)Proportion Cumulative

Proportion

DRC 84.8 46.5% 46.5%Angola 18.9 10.4% 56.9%Congo 12.9 7.1% 63.9%Zambia 10.8 5.9% 69.9%Cameroon 10.5 5.7% 75.6%Mozambique 9.0 4.9% 80.5%CAR 7.1 3.9% 84.4%Gabon 6.5 3.6% 88.0%Sudan 5.8 3.2% 91.2%

Rest of Africa (n=45) 8.8% 100.0%

Nine countries contain 90% of Africa’s unutilized arable land

Clustering of rural populations: Zambia

Clustering of rural populations: Kenya

Conclusion 2

Rapid rise of medium-scale farmers (5-100 ha)

Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)

Landholding size Category

Number of farms % change

(2001-2012)

% of total farmland

Share of landholding

2001* 2009 2012 2009 2012 cultivated (2012)

0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2%

2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4%

5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5%

10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7%

20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%

Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.

Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)

Landholding size Category

Number of farms % change

(2001-2012)

% of total farmland

Share of landholding

2001* 2009 2012 2009 2012 cultivated (2012)

0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2%

2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4%

5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5%

10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7%

20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%

Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.

Table 2: Changes in farm structure among small- and medium-scale farmers in Zambia (2009 - 2012)

Landholding size Category

Number of farms % change

(2001-2012)

% of total farmland

Share of landholding

2001* 2009 2012 2009 2012 cultivated (2012)

0 – 2 ha 638,118 916,787 748,771 17.3% 24.1% 16.2% 91.2%

2 – 5 ha 159,039 366,628 418,544 163.2% 33.8% 31.7% 66.4%

5 – 10 ha 20,832 110,436 165,129 692.6% 20.3% 25.0% 49.5%

10 – 20 ha 2,352 35,898 53,454 2272.7% 12.3% 15.0% 36.7%

20 – 100 ha -- 9,030 13,839 53.3%** 9.5% 12.0% 10.9%

Total 820,341 1,438,779 1,399,737 70.6% 100.0% 100.0%

Source: Ministry of Agriculture Crop Forecast Surveys, 2009, 2012. *2001 figures are land under cultivation. ** Growth rate computed from 2009-2012 only. “na” means not available.

Crop sales by farm size, Zambia

2000/1

2001/2

2002/3

2003/4

2004/5

2005/6

2006/7

2007/8

2008/9

2009/10

2010/11

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

0-0.99 ha1-1.99 ha2-4.99 ha5+ haLinear (5+ ha)

Season

Mea

n sa

les

(201

1 Zm

k ‘0

00s

pric

es)

11

Source: MACO CFS 2000/1 to 2010/11 and authors’ computations

Crop sales by farm size, Zambia

2000/1

2001/2

2002/3

2003/4

2004/5

2005/6

2006/7

2007/8

2008/9

2009/10

2010/11

-

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

0-0.99 ha1-1.99 ha2-4.99 ha5+ haLinear (5+ ha)

Season

Mea

n sa

les

(201

1 Zm

k ‘0

00s

pric

es)

12

Source: MACO CFS 2000/1 to 2010/11 and authors’ computations

Largest smallholder farms (9%) consistently doing better

Conclusion 3

Land controlled by MS farms exceeds

that of LS (foreign + domestic

combined)

More land cultivated/owned by MS than by large-scale, including LS foreign investors

Large scale (foreign+domestic)

Medium scale (5-100 ha)

Million hectares

Ghana (cultivated) 3.08 4.21

Kenya (cultivated) 0.69 0.84

Zambia (owned) 2.11 2.47

Characteristics of medium-scale farmers

• In most countries:• Urban-based• Primary employment = salaried job• Relatively highly educated• Primarily men

• In central / northern Ghana:• Most started out as small-scale farmers scaled-up• Acquired land from customary authorities• Relatively land-abundant environment

Conclusion 4

Medium-scale farmers control more land

than small-scale farmers (0-5 ha) in

Zambia and most likely in Ghana as well

Large scale Medium-scale (5-100 ha)

Small-scale (0-5 ha)

Total land controlled

Million hectares

Ghana (2005) 3.08 4.21 5.08 = 12.37

Kenya (2006) 0.69 0.84 2.63 = 4.16

Zambia (2012) 2.11 2.47 2.09 = 6.67

Large scale

Medium-scale

(5-100 ha)

Small-scale

(0-5 ha)

Total land controlled

PAC remaining (arable +

grasslands)

Million hectares

Ghana 3.08 4.21 5.08 = 12.37 3.56

Kenya 0.69 0.84 2.63 = 4.16 1.01

Zambia 2.11 2.47 2.09 = 6.67 3.35

Conclusion 5

The amount of land available for cropland

expansion (PAC) is between 20-35% of

total stock of arable land

Conclusion 5: PAC is sizeable but small in relation to land already utilized in Kenya and Ghana

PAC / already utilized + PAC

Including forest land Excluding forest land

Ghana (cultivated) 26.8% 22.4%

Kenya (cultivated) 21.5% 19.5%

Zambia (owned) 43.1% 33.4%

Conclusion 6

Rising concentration of

landholdings

Gini coefficients of landholding

Period Movement in Gini coefficient:

Ghana (cult. area) 1992 2005 0.54 0.65

Kenya (cult. area) 1994 2006 0.51 0.55

Zambia (landholding) 2001 2012 0.42 0.49

Conclusions

1. Rate of growth of medium-scale farms (MS: 5-100 ha) 10 times faster than small-scale (SS: 0-5 ha) farms

2. Despite major focus on large-scale “land grabs”, more farm land is owned by MS farmers than by LS farms

3. Land controlled by MS farmers > that of SS farmers (0-5 ha) in at least 1 of the 3 countries examined (probably 2/3 by 2014)

4. Mean farm size rising in some countries even while holdings are gradually shrinking for most farm hhs

5. Rising Gini coefficients over time in landholdings

6. Potentially available cropland as % of total utilized + unutilized arable land: ranges from 43.1% (Zambia) to 21.5% (Kenya)

Policy questions

1. Africa is enjoying 5% annual ag growth rates – who is driving this growth?

2. Are ag/employment/poverty reduction strategies compatible with countries’ land policies?

3. Will the rate of non-farm job growth depend on how inclusive agricultural growth is (multipliers)?

4. Will a commitment to inclusive agricultural development require area expansion and a change in land allocation policies?

Stylized fact:

A stylized fact is often a broad generalization that summarizes some complicated statistical relationship, which although essentially true, may have inaccuracies in the detail.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stylized_fact