Aeria Games and Data driven decision making: Avoiding pitfalls and building value
Post on 20-Jun-2015
230 Views
Preview:
DESCRIPTION
Transcript
Data driven decision making: Avoiding pitfalls and building value08.04.2012, Quo Vadis, Dr. Stefan Behrens
1
Aeria Games and ProSiebenSat.1 Games have combined forces on April 1, 2014
Industry leading monetization
Unparalleled marketing power
Strong developer relationships
Best-in-class operations
Global communities & reach
Top 3 player in
Europe
&
2
Some facts on the combined business
Registered Users
Countries Serviced
Game Licenses Operated
Mobile Share of Revenues
35
77m
16%
39
&
3
Data driven decision-making effectively drives almost all aspects of our business at Aeria
Talent Product Acquisition Retention Monetization
Values
4
At Aeria, decision making starts with strong values
VALUES
5
Hiring the right talent is the basis for success
• Don’t hire (only) gamers
TALENT
• Put them through „boot camp“
• Let them crunch numbers
• Keep setting the bar higher & higher
6
Picking the right games is not an easy feat
PRODUCT
Target Group Fit
Committed Developer
Proven Success
Adequate Art Style
7
Lifetime Value
(365d ARPU)
Customer Acquisition Funnel
Buy & SpendAeria Points
(7d Conversion)
Return toPlay
(3d Retention)
GameLogin
(Reg-to-Play)
Landing PageRegistration
(Click-to-Reg)
Click onAd Banner
(CTR)
CTR: 0.23%
Clicks: 107,000
Click-to-Reg: 5.6%
Regs: 6,000
Reg-to-Play 33%
Players: 2,000
3d Retention: 45%
Retained: 900
7d Conversion: 8.5%
Spenders: 170 $14.09
Max CPC:
0.13 USD
Max CPL:
2.35 USD
Max CPP:
7.05 USD
Marketing: Maximum Customer Cost Calculation
Successful acquisition is about balancing a simple, but fundamental equation...
ACQUISITION
8
…but the equation can get mighty complex
$-
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
Jan-
12
Feb-
12
Mar
-12
Apr
-12
May
-12
Jun-
12
Jul-1
2
Aug
-12
Sep
-12
Oct
-12
Nov
-12
Dec
-12
Jan-
13
Feb-
13
Mar
-13
Apr
-13
May
-13
30d LTV (a) 90d LTV (a)
1yr LTV (a) 1yr LTV (e)
Actual Predicted
Predictive LTV ModelingMulti-Channel Optimization
Search22%
Display/AdNetworks
38%
Branding1%
Facebook4%
PR5%
TV30%
ACQUISITION
9
Retention rates can tell you a lot…
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
29
.09
.0
2.1
0.
05
.10
.0
8.1
0.
11
.10
.1
4.1
0.
17
.10
.2
0.1
0.
23
.10
.2
6.1
0.
30
.10
.0
2.1
1.
05
.11
.0
8.1
1.
11
.11
.1
4.1
1.
17
.11
.2
0.1
1.
23
.11
.2
6.1
1.
29
.11
.0
2.1
2.
05
.12
.0
8.1
2.
11
.12
.1
4.1
2.
RR 3 days organic RR 3 days paid
Game Case: 3 Day Retention Rate (RR)
RETENTION
10
…if you know how to read them
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
29
.09
.0
2.1
0.
05
.10
.0
8.1
0.
11
.10
.1
4.1
0.
17
.10
.2
0.1
0.
23
.10
.2
6.1
0.
30
.10
.0
2.1
1.
05
.11
.0
8.1
1.
11
.11
.1
4.1
1.
17
.11
.2
0.1
1.
23
.11
.2
6.1
1.
29
.11
.0
2.1
2.
05
.12
.0
8.1
2.
11
.12
.1
4.1
2.
RR 3 days organic RR 3 days paid
Game Case: 3 Day Retention Rate (RR)
RETENTION
Technical issuewith a patch
Secondary accountsof existing users
11
However, sometimes, the answers areless than obvious
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
6.1
.20
12
6.3
.20
12
6.5
.20
12
6.7
.201
2
6.9
.20
12
6.1
1.2
01
2
6.1
3.20
12
6.1
5.20
12
6.1
7.20
12
6.1
9.20
12
6.2
1.20
12
6.2
3.20
12
6.2
5.20
12
6.2
7.20
12
6.2
9.20
12
7.1
.20
12
7.3
.20
12
7.5
.20
12
7.7
.20
12
7.9
.20
12
7.1
1.20
12
7.1
3.20
12
7.1
5.20
12
Germany
UK
Game Case: 3 Day Retention Rate
RETENTION
12
Especially, when soccer is involved
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
6.1
.20
12
6.3
.20
12
6.5
.20
12
6.7
.201
2
6.9
.20
12
6.1
1.2
01
2
6.1
3.20
12
6.1
5.20
12
6.1
7.20
12
6.1
9.20
12
6.2
1.20
12
6.2
3.20
12
6.2
5.20
12
6.2
7.20
12
6.2
9.20
12
7.1
.20
12
7.3
.20
12
7.5
.20
12
7.7
.20
12
7.9
.20
12
7.1
1.20
12
7.1
3.20
12
7.1
5.20
12
Germany
UKEuro Cup!
Game Case: 3 Day Retention Rate
RETENTION
13
Good sales strategy is fueled by analytics
Monthly Product Sales PlanContinuous KPI Analysis
1[0-5)
2[5-50)
3[50-100)4[100-200)5[200-400)6[400+)
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
50.00%
60.00%
70.00%
0None
1[0-5)
2[5-50)
3[50-100)
4[100-200)
5[200-400)
6[400+)
1[0-5)
2[5-50)
3[50-100)
4[100-200)
5[200-400)
6[400+)
Item Saturation
TS Redemption
CCU
Spender Buckets
Retention
MONETIZATION
14
Season #1 Price: $12 per spin No. of Spins: 16 No. of Jackpots: 1,500
Season #2 Price: $25 per spin No. of Spins: 14 Number of Jackpots 1000 Optimized composition of weapons
Season #3 Price: $20 per spin No. of Spins: 20 Number of Jackpots 500+500 Optimized weapons and Jackpot
Shooter Game Case, Revenue 2013 Jun-Dec Event Optimization
EventSeason #1
EventSeason #2
EventSeason #3
Execute, analyze, optimize for best results
Jun Jul NovOctSep DecAug
MONETIZATION
15
Beware… It’s a trap! (at least sometimes)
Data consistency can be a b*tch
Correlation ≠ Causation
What get’s measured can be improved,but what about intangibles?
You can plan a pretty picnic,but you can’t predict the weather!
PITFALLS
Data driven decision making: Avoiding pitfalls and building value08.04.2014, Quo Vadis, Dr. Stefan Behrens
top related