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“Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental
risks“
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ityII International Symposium on Desertificationand Migrations; 25-27 October Almeria/Spain
Migration Dynamics Generatedby Environmental Problems
Prof. Dr. Ing. Janos J. Bogardi&
Dr. Fabrice Renaud
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• Migration is a steady component of human history
• Land degradation started with agriculture, irrigation several thousand years ago.
… but things seem to become uncontrolled
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ityMillenium Ecosystem Assessment
• 15 of 24 ecosystem services are degraded or utilised in an unsustainable way, mainly by humans for the supply of specific services.
• This could accelerate the degradation of ecosystems - scientific evidence still required.
• The poor and especially rural poor are suffering most by the decline in ecosystem services.
• 2 billion people living in dry regions are extremely vulnerable to the loss of ecosystem services.
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ityEnvironmental Degradation
and Ecosystem Services
• 10 to 20 % of drylands are already degraded;• Pressure increases on dryland ecosystems
for providing food, water, livestock, irrigation, and sanitation;
• Climate change could increase water scarcity in regions already under water stress;
• Droughts are becoming more frequent and their continuous reoccurrence can overcome the coping mechanisms of communities.
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ityMigration:
a new look on an old problem
• 1994: “New thinking” of migrations originated at the International Conference on Population and Development.
• 2003: High-Level Dialogue on international migrations and development. The outcome: 1) maximise the development benefits of international migration; and 2) minimise its negative impacts.
• 2003: launch of Global Commission on International Migration • Global Migration Group contributes inputs to the Secretary
General’s report for the High-Level Dialogue.• 2004: International Labour Conference adopted a resolution
requesting the International Labour Office to implement a plan of action on migrant workers .
• 2005: establishment of a high-level inter-institutional group to ensure effective institutional response to international migration.
• 2006: Appointment of Special Representative on International Migration and Development.
• Proposal of a forum to offer Governments a venue to discuss international migration and development (High-Level Dialogue).
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Gap in Per Capita Income
Richest PoorestCountries Countries
1960 30 : 1
1990 60 : 1
2000 80 : 1
The Widening Income Gap: Pull and Push
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Life Expectancy
Richest PoorestCountries Countries
1998 78 45
Japan Malawi2002 81 40
The Widening Gap: Life Expectancy
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ityTracing the Tracks:
• Where are the migrants coming from?
• Where are they going?
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ityGlobal Net Primary Productivity
(1982-1993)
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ityGlobal Variation in
Net Primary Productivity (1982 - 1993)
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ityGlobal Desertification Vulnerability
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ityHunger Map
Source: World Food Programme
Category 1 2 3 4 5
Undernourished ≥ 35% 20-34% 5-19% 2.5-4% ≤2.5%_ No data Incomplete data
Description Very high Moderately high
Moderately low
Very low Extremely low
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ityWorld Population and CO2- Emissions per Resident
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ityComparison of Infant Mortality and GNP Per Person
in Drylands and Other MA Systems in Asia
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Target zones of international migration
The “guiding lights”
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ityGross National Product and Income
Rate per Resident
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ityAnnual Migration Flows
(Estimates from 1994 / the arrows indicate flows above 100,000 people only)
Source: Lutz (1994a)
NorthAmerica
+2000Western Europe
+1000
EasternEurope
+1000
China
-470
SouthAmerica
-260
Sub-SaharianAfrica
-510
CentralAmerica
-650
220
150
550
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275NorthAfrica
-475
275SouthernAsia
-835
150
300
South-EastAsia
-1135
290
150
550
Japan and Australia
+350
135
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ityProposed Categories of Environmental Migrants
• Environmentally motivated migration;
• Environmentally forced migration; and
• Environmental refugees (including disaster refugees).
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ityThe five-pronged Approach
• Science: “Proper” definitions of environmentally motivated and/or forced migrations, environmental migrant/refugee; and programmesfor a better understanding between the cause-effects mechanisms between degradation of ecosystems and social systems
• Awareness: Raise knowledge-based public and political awareness.
• Legislation: recognition of environmental migrants like in a convention or in parts of intergovernmental environmental treaties.
• Humanitarian: empower relevant entities to provide aid to environmental refugees.
• Political: devise concepts and put in place institutions that are able to assist the flux of forced environmental migrants.
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ityThe “dry world”
• Dryland / desertcultures
• Common challenges
• Diversity of traditional and local practices
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