Aagw2010 June 09 Andy Nelson the Geography of Rice Irri
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8/9/2019 Aagw2010 June 09 Andy Nelson the Geography of Rice Irri
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The geography of rice
Andy Nelson
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Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
What are we doing, how is it useful to others
Our ideas for the future
Potential shared services
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Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
How important is agriculture for the poor?
Thanks to several efforts, we have a good idea of which crops aregrown where (ditto for livestock etc.) 200+ commodities mapped.
Areas of rice production
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Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
How important is agriculture for the poor?
Thanks to Stan et al, we have a good idea of poverty prevalence,both as headcounts and poverty rates.
Number of people on less than $1.25 a day
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Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
How important is agriculture for the poor?
This is too good an opportunity to pass up
We need a common framework linking agriculture and poverty toassess the potential impact of our researchThis project has the potential to lift x million people in SSA out ofpovertyx million people in poverty depend upon crop y in region z
We need to be sending out a common messageThe current drafts of the CG MegaPrograms contain conflicting
figures. Since many programs are being submitted at the same timethere is a serious credibility issue here
So, how can we go about this?
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Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
A first effortin 4 quick and easy steps
1. Tabulate the number of poor in each crop producing area
2. Sum the number of poor across all crops and all regions
3. Send it out to all your friends and colleagues in the CG/CSI
4. Lose friends and colleagues in the CG/CSI
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Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
A firstand not very popular - effortPeople on < 1.25USD a day per major crop (crop pixel has 10%+ of the crop)
0
200,000,000
400,000,000
600,000,000
800,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,200,000,000
Wheat
Maize Ric
eMillet
Sorghu
m
Soybeans
Potat
oes
Cassava
Sugarc
ane
Rape
seed
/Can
ola
Groundn
uts/Peanuts
Pulse
s
East Asia South East Asia South Asia
Sub Saharan Africa Latin America & the Caribbean Other
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Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
How to better capture this complex problem?
1 Use FAO food balance sheets and prices and compute theinternationally comparable value of production (USD$ per ton) forthe important crops in each country
2 multiply that by the production from each pixel for 200 agricultural
products. Output total $ value of agricultural production per pixel
3 Assume that the total $ value of the crops grown by the poor perpixel is the poverty rate x the total value of production
4 Divide by the number of poor to get the $ value of agriculturalproduction per person in poverty
5 Aggregate by country/farming system/AEZ to provide consistentpoverty headcounts, poverty rates and $ value figures for each
crop and each crop combination. Repeat the whole thing forcalories, fat and protein per person.
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Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
Other ideas?
How can we bring together information on:
Crop and livestock production, Farming systems,
Agroecological zones, Poverty .
to present a consistent message across the CG of the relevance of
our work and the potential impact on the livelihoods of the poor
@
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Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
Mapping rice and rice agroecologies
Where is rice grown?
Under what conditions is it grown? How much is rainfed/irrigated?
Where are drought / flooding / heat stress / cold stress an issue?
What are the planting dates, harvest dates, season lengths?Where and when are pests and diseases an issue?
What is the yield gap and how does it vary from place to place?
How do all these change from year to year?
These are not rice specific questions
G h @ IRRI
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MODIS remote sensing imagery
Freely available
Global coverage
Medium spatial resolution, new images every 8 days / 46 per year10 years of data
Perfect for mapping land cover change and monitoring stress
But it is a lot of data
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
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G h @ IRRI
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Rice phenology from remote sensing
21-Jul-08 9-Sep-08 29-Oct-08 18-Dec-08 6-Feb-09 28-Mar-09 17-May-09
-0.1
1-Jun-08
No flooding of field in
Rabi season, then slowergrowth = wheat
Flooding of field in Kharif
season, then rapidgrowth = rice
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
Indexvalue
1.0
Vegetation index
Water index
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
G h @ IRRI
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Detecting rice paddies
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
Geograph @ IRRI
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Detecting rice paddies
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
Geography @ IRRI
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Detecting rice paddies
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
Geography @ IRRI
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Detecting rice paddies
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
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Geography @ IRRI
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RS Time series are a great resource but the signal is often noisy andhas gaps due to cloud.
Need to process this with TIMESAT to get smooth dataseries
start and end of season
length of season
number of seasons
biomass
interannual changes
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
Getting more out of the time series
i j i iGeography @ IRRI
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RS Time series are a great resource but the signal is often noisy andhas gaps due to cloud.
Need to process this with TIMESAT to get smooth dataseries
start and end of season
length of season
number of seasons
biomass
interannual changes
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
Getting more out of the time series
P t & A i lt M th j t i iGeography @ IRRI
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RS Time series are a great resource but the signal is often noisy andhas gaps due to cloud.
Need to process this with TIMESAT to get smooth data series
start and end of season
length of season
number of seasons
biomass
interannual changes
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
Getting more out of the time series
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P t & A i lt M th j t i iGeography @ IRRI
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MODIS is downloaded, processed, used and stored by just abouteveryone in the GIS/RS community
We all generate commonly used vegetation and water indices
NDVI, EVI, NDWI, NDDI, LSWI and many others
Smooth time series of these indices would be valuable for manypurposes
Crop (and land surface in general) phenology data is equallyimportant
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
Thats a lot of outputs
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
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We need a killer app
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
iPad
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
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We need a killer app
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
iPaddyiPad
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
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How iPaddy works
Move all processing and storage of MODIS to Amazon cloud basedservices. Weve started this already
Create generic processing chains (written in R) to run all themodels. Veg indices and rice mapping component complete
User simply selects the tile, the dates and issues the command. Canselect the types of output you want
Store the data and results on Amazon
Data and results are available for anyone to access at all times
99% of this is generic, it is not just for rice
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
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Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceGeography @ IRRI
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Wrap up
Poverty & Agriculture More than just mapping riceg p y
What are we doing, how is it useful to othersOur ideas for the futurePotential shared services
Commonly agreed methods for presentingthe big picture on poverty / agriculture
iPaddy - Remotely hosted processing chainsfor common GIS/RS needs
Outsourced HPC and storage
Geography @ IRRI
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Thank you
Questions?
a.nelson@irri.org
g p y
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