A Drought History of Alabama, Georgia and the Panhandle of Florida David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D. State Climatologist – Associate Professor Engineering.
Post on 04-Jan-2016
216 Views
Preview:
Transcript
A Drought History of A Drought History of Alabama, Georgia and the Alabama, Georgia and the
Panhandle of Florida Panhandle of Florida
David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D.David Emory Stooksbury, Ph.D.State Climatologist – Associate ProfessorState Climatologist – Associate ProfessorEngineering and Atmospheric SciencesEngineering and Atmospheric Sciences
The University of GeorgiaThe University of Georgia
stooks@engr.uga.edustooks@engr.uga.edu706-583-0156706-583-0156
Drought in the SoutheastDrought in the Southeast
Drought in the SoutheastDrought in the Southeast
Is a normal component of the Is a normal component of the climate systemclimate system
Drought in the SoutheastDrought in the Southeast
Is a normal component of the Is a normal component of the climate systemclimate system
Has occurred in the past and will in Has occurred in the past and will in the futurethe future
Drought in the SoutheastDrought in the Southeast
Is a normal component of the Is a normal component of the climate systemclimate system
Has occurred in the past and will in Has occurred in the past and will in the futurethe future
No evidence of change in drought No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensityfrequency or intensity
Drought in the SoutheastDrought in the Southeast
Is a normal component of the climate Is a normal component of the climate systemsystem
Has occurred in the past and will in the Has occurred in the past and will in the futurefuture
No evidence of change in drought No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensityfrequency or intensity At least from a climatic viewAt least from a climatic view
Drought in the SoutheastDrought in the Southeast
Is a normal component of the climate systemIs a normal component of the climate system
Has occurred in the past and will in the futureHas occurred in the past and will in the future
No evidence of change in drought frequency No evidence of change in drought frequency or intensityor intensity
Societal Changes change our vulnerability to Societal Changes change our vulnerability to drought – both increasing and decreasing our drought – both increasing and decreasing our vulnerabilityvulnerability
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II Accelerated growth since 1980Accelerated growth since 1980
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II Accelerated growth since 1980Accelerated growth since 1980
1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1,000,0001960 – Metro Atlanta about 1,000,000
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II Accelerated growth since 1980Accelerated growth since 1980
1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II Accelerated growth since 1980Accelerated growth since 1980
1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million
2008 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million2008 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II Accelerated growth since 1980Accelerated growth since 1980
1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million1960 – Metro Atlanta about 1 million 1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million1960 – State of Georgia about 4.5 million
2009 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million2009 – Metro Atlanta over 4.5 million 2009 – State of Georgia over 9 million2009 – State of Georgia over 9 million
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II Accelerated growth since 1980Accelerated growth since 1980 Growth has be unevenly distributedGrowth has be unevenly distributed
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II Accelerated growth since 1980Accelerated growth since 1980 Growth has be unevenly distributedGrowth has be unevenly distributed
Along the coast Along the coast Northern Piedmont – top of the water shedNorthern Piedmont – top of the water shed
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II
Landscape changes Landscape changes
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II
Landscape changes Landscape changes Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed
flow patternsflow patterns
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II
Landscape changes Landscape changes Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed Urban sprawl – changes in the watershed
flow patternsflow patterns Conversion of row crop fields to forest Conversion of row crop fields to forest
(started in 1920s)(started in 1920s)
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II
Landscape changes Landscape changes
Agricultural ChangesAgricultural Changes
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II
Landscape changes Landscape changes
Agricultural ChangesAgricultural Changes Shift in amount in land in row crops and Shift in amount in land in row crops and
treestrees
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II
Landscape changes Landscape changes
Agricultural ChangesAgricultural Changes Shift in amount in land in row crops and Shift in amount in land in row crops and
treestrees Increase in irrigationIncrease in irrigation
Societal Changes in the Societal Changes in the SoutheastSoutheast
Rapid population growth starting after Rapid population growth starting after World War IIWorld War II
Landscape changes Landscape changes
Agricultural ChangesAgricultural Changes Shift in amount in land in row crops and treesShift in amount in land in row crops and trees Increase in irrigationIncrease in irrigation Increase in urban agriculture – the “green” Increase in urban agriculture – the “green”
industryindustry
Climate Trends Across the Climate Trends Across the SoutheastSoutheast
Climate Trends Across the Climate Trends Across the SoutheastSoutheast
Since 1900 – No trend in yearly Since 1900 – No trend in yearly precipitationprecipitation
Since 1900 – No trend to slight Since 1900 – No trend to slight cooling in yearly average cooling in yearly average temperaturestemperatures
The DriversThe Drivers
Location, Location, LocationLocation, Location, Location
El NiEl Niño and La Nio and La Niñaa
Coupled Air-Sea Coupled Air-Sea InteractionsInteractionsThe El Nino/La Nina cycle is the
predominant mode of year to year climate variability.
“The CPC seasonal forecasts lack useful skill in the absence of a strong El Niño/La Niña event” - Bob Livezey
Tracking Tracking the El Niño /La Niña Cycle
• Sea surface temperature anomalies averaged over the Nino 3.4 portion of the equatorial Pacific Ocean
•Smoothed with a three-month running average to reduce noise
Winter Jet Stream Patterns Winter Jet Stream Patterns During During
El Niño and La NiñaEl Niño and La NiñaEl NiñoEl Niño La NiñaLa Niña
El Niño Effects on El Niño Effects on PrecipitationPrecipitation
La Niña Effects on La Niña Effects on PrecipitationPrecipitation
Alabama DroughtsAlabama Droughts
Georgia DroughtsGeorgia Droughts
Annual North Central Annual North Central GeorgiaGeorgia
Annual West Central Annual West Central GeorgiaGeorgia
Annual Alabama Piedmont Annual Alabama Piedmont PlateauPlateau
Annual Southwest GeorgiaAnnual Southwest Georgia
Annual Coastal Plain Annual Coastal Plain AlabamaAlabama
Annual Northwest FloridaAnnual Northwest Florida
The Seasonal The Seasonal Distribution is Distribution is IMPORTANT IMPORTANT
Typical Recharge in North Typical Recharge in North GeorgiaGeorgia
- Courtesy SERFC
Response of Hydrologic Response of Hydrologic SystemsSystems
Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, Florida
ENSO and Flow RatesENSO and Flow RatesApalachicola River at
Chattahoochee, Florida
Rainfall By SeasonsRainfall By Seasons
Winter North Central Winter North Central GeorgiaGeorgia
Spring North Central Spring North Central GeorgiaGeorgia
Summer North Central Summer North Central GeorgiaGeorgia
Fall North Central GeorgiaFall North Central Georgia
Winter West Central Winter West Central GeorgiaGeorgia
Spring West Central Spring West Central GeorgiaGeorgia
Summer West Central Summer West Central GeorgiaGeorgia
Fall West Central GeorgiaFall West Central Georgia
Winter Piedmont Plateau Winter Piedmont Plateau AlabamaAlabama
Spring Piedmont Plateau Spring Piedmont Plateau AlabamaAlabama
Summer Piedmont Plateau Summer Piedmont Plateau AlabamaAlabama
Fall Piedmont Plateau Fall Piedmont Plateau AlabamaAlabama
Winter Southwest GeorgiaWinter Southwest Georgia
Spring Southwest GeorgiaSpring Southwest Georgia
Summer Southwest GeorgiaSummer Southwest Georgia
Fall Southwest GeorgiaFall Southwest Georgia
Winter Coastal Plain Winter Coastal Plain AlabamaAlabama
Spring Coastal Plain Spring Coastal Plain AlabamaAlabama
Summer Coastal Plain Summer Coastal Plain AlabamaAlabama
Fall Coastal Plain AlabamaFall Coastal Plain Alabama
Winter Northwest FloridaWinter Northwest Florida
Spring Northwest FloridaSpring Northwest Florida
Summer Northwest FloridaSummer Northwest Florida
Fall Northwest FloridaFall Northwest Florida
Tree Ring Drought Tree Ring Drought InformationInformation
Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI < -0.99)< -0.99) 1756-17601756-1760 1762-17641762-1764 1797-18021797-1802 1855-18571855-1857 1896-18991896-1899 1925-19271925-1927 1954-19561954-1956 1998-20021998-2002 2006-20092006-2009
Tree Ring Drought Tree Ring Drought InformationInformation
Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI < Long-term Droughts (3 or more years PDI < -0.99)-0.99) 1756-17601756-1760 1762-17641762-1764 1797-18021797-1802 1855-18571855-1857 1896-18991896-1899 1925-19271925-1927 1954-19561954-1956 1998-20021998-2002 2006-20092006-2009
Long-term drought about once in 40 yearsLong-term drought about once in 40 years
Tree Ring Drought Tree Ring Drought InformationInformation
Long-term Droughts Long-term Droughts (2 or more years PDI (2 or more years PDI < -0.99)< -0.99)1756-17601756-1760 1762-17641762-1764 1797-18021797-18021855-18571855-1857 1896-18991896-1899 1925-19271925-19271954-19561954-1956 1998-20021998-2002 2006-20092006-2009
Adds the following yearsAdds the following years 1708-17091708-1709 1714-17151714-1715 1839-18401839-1840 1844-18451844-1845 1914-19151914-1915
Tree Ring Drought Tree Ring Drought InformationInformation
Long-term Droughts Long-term Droughts (2 or more years)(2 or more years)1756-17601756-1760 1762-17641762-1764 1797-18021797-18021855-18571855-1857 1896-18991896-1899 1925-19271925-19271954-19561954-1956 1998-20021998-2002 2006-20092006-2009
Adds the following yearsAdds the following years1708-17091708-1709 1714-17151714-1715 1839-18401839-18401844-18451844-1845 1914-19151914-1915
Return interval is now once in 25 Return interval is now once in 25 yearsyears
Some Drought Some Drought Monitoring ToolsMonitoring Tools
US Drought MonitorUS Drought Monitor
Lawn and Garden IndexLawn and Garden Index
Summer Drought and Moistness Index Summer Drought and Moistness Index Alabama 900-2009Alabama 900-2009
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
900 1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
15422007
9th Driest
SummarySummary
SummarySummary
Droughts are a normal component of Droughts are a normal component of the climate systemthe climate system
SummarySummary
Droughts are a normal component of Droughts are a normal component of the climate systemthe climate system
We will have droughts in the futureWe will have droughts in the future
SummarySummary
Droughts are a normal component of Droughts are a normal component of the climate systemthe climate system
We will have droughts in the futureWe will have droughts in the future
No trend in southeastern climate No trend in southeastern climate since 1900since 1900
SummarySummary Droughts are a normal component of the Droughts are a normal component of the
climate systemclimate system
We will have droughts in the futureWe will have droughts in the future
No trend in southeastern climate since No trend in southeastern climate since 19001900
More people but the same amount of More people but the same amount of waterwater
top related