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Chart 2: Growth of GDP, private and MPI
Source: OIE, NESDB, and BOT
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Source: BOT
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: Growth of GDP, private investment, and MPI
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Import contents (%) 2518
Consumption 13.5
Government 11.1
Investment 40.6
Domestic demand 18.3
Exports 12.6
Source: I-O table and BOT’s calculations
100
140
180
220
2545Q1 2547Q1 2549Q
Chart 5: Capacity index
Source: OIE, and BOT
2000 = 100
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1.0
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2543Q1 2545Q1 2547Q1 2549
Private investment to GDP deflatorCapital goods import pricesRaw material goods import prices
Chart 4.1: Cost of investment
Source: NESDB, MOC, and BOT
Ratio
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Table 1: Import contents in final demand
2518 2523 2528 2533 2538
13.5 20.3 20.8 25.3 31.3
11.1 17.2 17.8 14.9 13.9
40.6 40.9 42.2 46.7 51.2
18.3 24.6 25.2 32.3 37.5
12.6 20.3 21.0 32.4 36.2
O table and BOT’s calculations
Q1 2551Q1
: Capacity index
2549Q1 2551Q1
Private investment to GDP deflatorCapital goods import pricesRaw material goods import prices
: Cost of investment
-30
-15
0
15
30
2543Q1 2545Q1 2547Q1
Private investment
Real MLR: in reverse order (RHS)
Chart 4.2: Cost of investment
Source: NESDB, MOC, and BOT
%YoY
Note: Real MLR = MLR – Current headline inflation
3
3 ����� !�ก�"#$� ��%��� �&'ก��4 ก�ก(�) 2552
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2541 2543
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9.2 13.5
48.0 54.5
31.1 35.2
33.5 43.4
-10
-5
0
5
10
2549Q1 2551Q1
Private investment
Real MLR: in reverse order (RHS)
: Cost of investment
Source: NESDB, MOC, and BOT
%
Current headline inflation
4
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Table 2: Efficiency of investment
2542 2543 2544 2545 2546 2547 2548 2549 2550 2551
1. ICOR1 0.7 0.8 1.4 0.8 0.8 1.2 1.8 1.8 1.7 n.a.
2. TFP1 3.0 3.4 0.6 3.4 5.1 3.7 2.0 2.4 2.1 n.a.
3. Return on investment (%)2
- Asia pacific 12.3 13.5 10.9 10.7 12.1 13.7 15.1 15.2 16.3 12.3
- Malaysia 21.2 19.6 18.4 19.9 24.8 27.3 27.2 27.0 25.8 21.2
- Singapore 14.8 16.8 10.3 9.7 11.7 15.4 23.0 19.0 22.7 14.8
- Korea 15.4 14.8 11.8 13.3 11.9 13.5 13.8 15.7 15.6 15.4
- Thailand 13.8 16.2 15.3 11.3 15.3 25.1 21.1 18.1 19.9 13.8
- Philippines 11.9 12.7 8.3 12.1 11.7 15.5 11.1 11.5 11.9 11.9
Source: 1 Capital Stock of Thailand 2007 Edition (NESDB, 2008)
2 Calculated from Direct investment income for the current year divided by average of FDI stock of the previous year and the current year (UNCTAD 2008)
4 4EI��'J"(ก��#5A F0(V5ABK4B5D--E0�+(IJ4ก��#5A F0(V5ABK4B�A�A�I (Incremental Capital Output Ratio: ICOR) V'3BSRB5�%'��*�T�MK4Bก��AB�+(� F#ก�3KR\(W(�%��#)�12ก�- �30#5C(ก��#5� 0�#� 0�"J� �A�A�I (GDP) � F#M�F!KR\( 1 �(J"0 I�4B4�)E0ก��AB�+(#M�F!KR\(#�J�W3 �ก ICOR ),�!���� ��/��!�����-��6��!����/���%�����),�!���
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Chart 6.2: ���ก������E���I2�����%���L
Source: BOT
ReplacementNew investment
Higher Same
Objective
Compared to 2008
50
60
70
80
90
2545Q1 2547Q1 2549Q1
Capacity utilisation rateTotal order book next 3
Chart 6.1: Factors constraining private investment
Source: BOT
%
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30
45
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90
1 2551Q1
Capacity utilisation rate3 months (RHS)
constraining private investment
Diffussion index
5
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30
40
50
60
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2545Q1 2547Q1 2549Q1
Uncertain economic conditionCredit from FIs (RHS)
Chart 6.3: Factors constraining private investment
Source: BOT
% Share
�� ��ก����������ก���ก��ก�����������ก��ก� ����� !�ก�"#$� ��%��� �&'ก��
45.5
11.4
11.1
12.8
6.4
22
17
16
10.1
0 20
Chart 6.4: Factors constrainingprivate investment
Source: BOT
Financial cost
External demand
Political uncertainty
Production cost
Domestic demand
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40
45
50
55
60
1 2551Q1
Uncertain economic condition
constraining private investment
Diffussion index
6
6 ����� !�ก�"#$� ��%��� �&'ก��4 ก�ก(�) 2552
16.8
22.6
17.5
16.2
10.8
19.2
15.8
8.1
15.2
20 40 60 80
1st
2nd
3rd
: Factors constraininginvestment
% Share
�E\B( \ �Aก��'G��"-���5�%ก4�ก��M�"J� �8��������7�,2���]�ก�5���ก��)1��
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�30IE"40J�B!�I�ก��� F'G�$EHK4B�E2W(3��(( \ $L4 �$�Bก��3��(ก��)Rก1�#� 0(X� 15 5[ VA%�$�Bก��ME|(�V�AJB(\G�#MLF4ก��#ก1I� T�0WI�!�I�ก��ก�%I+�(#)�12ก�-#�JB3J"(W(�%0%� F 1 #5C(I�(
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K�4$"�$G�(RB $L4 #MLF4W��ก��W_�#B�(T�1 K4B'J"(�"!#ก�35�%�0_(&'�B'+3 ����'��������2)ก������E�.�������61F�'��,2�)�]��0���!ก�%�� ����� �&'ก����ก����������ก��0/���!�������� ���������!� !���12�� !�กก"J�� F-%IE3'�(W-AB�+(�$�B'���BML\(2�(#!LF4#�N(! ก��K0�0IE"K4Bก��AB�+(VA%ก��#I���I��B#)�12ก�-VA�" #M��%��ก#)�12ก�-_%A4IE"-%�G�W��ก��AB�+(�$�B'���BML\(2�(I�4B_%BEกBE( VA%I�4BW_��%0%#"A�0�"(�(KR\( (4ก-�ก( \ $"�!+JB#(�(5�%'��*�T�MK4Bก��AB�+(3�"0
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��ก��������: Bakhshi, Hasan and Jamie, Thompson (2002), Explaining Trends in U.K. Business Investment, Bank of England
Quarterly Bulletin, Spring. Mallikamas, Roong Poshyananda, Yunyong Taicharoen, and Duangporn Rodpengsangkaha (2003), Investment
Cycles, Economic Recovery and Monetary Policy, BOT Symposium 2003, August. Office of the National Economic and Social Development Board (2008), Capital Stock of Thailand 2007 Edition. United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) (2008), World Investment Report 2008:
Transnational Corporations and the Infrastructure Challenge, July. Whitaker, Simon (1998), Investment in this Recovery: an Assessment, Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin,
February. ก�%��"Bก��$AEB (2552), KJ�"ก�%��"Bก��$AEB h�E�� F 5/2552 "E(� F 20 !ก��$! 2552 ก�II� A�F!'ก+A. (2540). "�กZI#)�12ก�-!�T�$VA%�Aก�%��T�$#)�12ก�--��B. #)�12ก�-U�0: "�กZIVA%��B44ก: 1-10. *(�$��V�JB5�%#�)U�0 ��0B�(V("�(�!#B�(#XY4 h�E�#3L4(#!1�0( 2547 VA%#3L4(ก�กr�$! 2548 T�"�( "��(�E0 (2547). �Aก�%��K4Bก��AB�+(T�$�E2IJ4ก��AB�+(T�$#4ก_(VA%ก��#I���I��B#)�12ก�-K4B5�%#�)
U�0. "��0�(�M(*&5��HH�!���E^��I '�K�"�_�#)�12)�'I�& $^%#)�12)�'I�& -+��ABก�^&!��"��0�AE0. '+"��0& $+^ก�II� (2551), 5�2กS�M�#)1 #�LF4B 5[V�JBก��AB�+( 2551-2552 (Thailand Investment Year 2008 - 2009), 10
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