Transcript
Weekly Chart BookAugust 30, 2013
Global Clients…Global Portfolios
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Accuvest Weekly Update
Global Financial Conditions
• Macro Risk and Financial Market Stress have increased this MTD and YTD, but remain at moderate levels
• The VIX Index (implied S&P 500 volatility) closed @ 17.01, up from 13.98 last week and at 8 week highs
• This week – Treasuries, the US Dollar, and Oil rallied, while Equities and Precious Metals struggled
Global Equity Markets
• The S&P 500 is trading at 15.7x current earnings, 12M forward estimates equal 14.2x (down 4.3% over the last 4 weeks)
• The MSCI ACWI is trading at 21.0x current earnings, 12M forward estimates equal 13.2x (down 0.5% over the last 4 weeks)
• The S&P 500 was down -1.8% this week, and has now slipped below its 50 Day MA
• August was the worst month for the S&P500 (-3.2%) since May 2012
• The MSCI All Country World Index failed to break May 2013 highs, is losing momentum and is now testing its 200DMA
• The MSCI Emerging Market Index has shown improvement, but has struggled to stay above its 50DMA
Interest Rates and Fixed Income
• 10 year US Treasury Yields closed the week at 2.78%, down from 2.81% last week
• 10 year US Treasury Yields are forecasted to be 2.66% at the end of Q3 2013
• Investment Grade Bonds rallied 0.7% this week, and spreads remain narrow @ 1.71%, up from 1.66% last week
• High Yield Bonds rallied 0.1% this week, but remain below consecutive lower highs as the 50DMA crosses below the 200DMA
• High Yield credit spreads widened over the last 6 weeks, currently @ 3.62%, up from 3.55% last week
• Mortgage Rates @ 4.92%, up from 4.80% last week and making new 2 year highs
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Accuvest Weekly Update
The Economy
• Housing/Real Estate is the highlight of the US Economy
• The Industrial Sector, Retail Sector, and now the Personal/Household Sector are lowlights of the US Economy
• Durable Goods, Pending Home Sales, Mortgage Apps, and Personal Income Growth missed expectations this week
• Consumer Confidence and Initial Jobless Claims met or exceeded expections
• Next week’s U.S. economic calendar includes data on Manufacturing, Employment, and Factory Orders
Major Currencies
• Only the Pound, Euro, Krone, and Franc have appreciated vs. the US Dollar over the last 6 months
• The Real, Aussie Dollar, and SA Rand have all depreciated more than 10% vs. the US Dollar over the last 6 months
• The Mexican Peso (+6.2%) and Brazilian Real (+2.8%) are forecasted to appreciate vs. the US Dollar through the end of 2013
• The Swiss Franc(-5.1%) and Japanese Yen(-4.7%) are forecasted to depreciate vs. the US Dollar through the end of 2013
• MXN/USD @ 13.38, weakening sharply from 12.95 last week and closing the week at 1 year highs
Commodities
• Commodities (an equally weighted basket) have shown recent relative strength, but they remain in a 5 year down trend
• Gold @ $1395/oz., up from $1200/oz. on June 27th, and backing off of an intraweek high of $1433/oz.
• The Gold to Gold Miners Ratio has broken to the downside, but bounced off of 200DMA support this week
• Crude Oil @ $107.65, up from $106.42/barrel last week and struggling with resistance @ $108/barrel
• Copper @ $322.50/lb., backing away from 6 month highs, and down from $334.85/lb. last week
disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.
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US Financial Conditions
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Developed Markets
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Emerging Markets
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The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility)
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Global Financial Stress Index
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Citi Macro Risk Index
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US Yield Curve (Current vs. 1 Month & 12 Months Ago)
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U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield
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U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield – Forecast
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Fed’s 5 Year Forward Breakeven (Inflation Expectations)
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Investment Grade Bond Prices
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Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB – 10 Yr. UST Yield)
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High Yield Bond Prices
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High Yield Credit Spreads (HY – 10 Yr. UST Yield)
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Emerging Market Debt (Local Currency)
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World Equity Indices
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MSCI All Country World Index
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S&P 500 Index
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MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index
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MSCI Emerging Markets Index
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AGO Constituents – Japan, USA, Germany, Russia, Netherlands, & Malaysia
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Global Heat Map – Sectors & Regions YTD
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S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)
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ACWI Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)
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Last week’s Economic Calendar
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Next week’s Economic Calendar
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Economic Surprise Monitor (Deviations from Expectations)
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Economic Surprise Index (Deviation from Expectations)
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Case Schiller Composite 20 City Home Price Index – YoY
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30 Year Mortgage Rates
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US Personal Income – YoY Growth
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Initial Jobless Claims – 4 Week Moving Average
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World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns)
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World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q4 2013)
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US Dollar Index
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Japanese Yen ¥
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Euro €
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Mexican Peso
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Australian Dollar
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Emerging Market Currencies
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Global Commodity Prices
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Continuous Commodity Index – 5 Years
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Gold Prices – 5 Years
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Gold to Gold Miners Ratio – 5 Years
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Crude Oil Prices – 5 Years
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Natural Gas Prices – 5 Years
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Copper Prices – 5 Years
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Gasoline Prices (Regular/Unleaded)
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