· 2021. 1. 22. · TRAVEL SENTIMENT INDEX REPORT Highlights on COVID-19 Vaccines Impact on Travel Sentiment January 21st, 2021. METHODOLOGY
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@PerlTrish
https://www.statnews.com/2020/12/28/chance-illnesses-after-covid-19-vaccinations-could-test-public-confidence-even-if-the-problems-are-unrelated/
COVID-19 Preven/on and VaccinesTrish M. Perl, MD, MSc
Professor of Medicine Chief, Division of Infectious Diseases
and Geographic MedicineTrish.Perl@UTSouthwestern.edu
Prevention of COVID-19
https://theconversation.com/covid-19-vaccine-update-pfizer-may-be-the-frontrunner-but-canada-has-hedged-its-bets-149962
Types of COVID-19 Vaccines
https://theconversation.com/covid-19-vaccine-update-pfizer-may-be-the-frontrunner-but-canada-has-hedged-its-bets-149962
Easy to design & manufacture, no other
vaccines in use, eg Pfizer, Moderna
Live virus tends to illicit very robust immune response, must pick
correct vector, ex include Ebola vaccine, eg J&J and
Oxford/AztraZeneca
Indirect Effect of Vaccina0on: Herd Immunity
https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/what-we-do/science-health-public-trust/perspectives/science-health-public-trust/building-trust-vaccines
Indirect Effect of Vaccination: Herd Immunity
https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/what-we-do/science-health-public-trust/perspectives/science-health-public-trust/building-trust-vaccines
Indirect Effect of Vaccina0on: Herd Immunity
https://www.nih.gov/about-nih/what-we-do/science-health-public-trust/perspectives/science-health-public-trust/building-trust-vaccines
Estimates are a population will need ~ 70% of individuals to be immune through vaccination or natural infection to achieve herd immunity
Operation Warp Speed
h>ps://media.defense.gov/2020/Aug/13/2002476369/-1/-1/0/200813-D-ZZ999-100.JPG
COVID-19 Vaccine: Phase 3 Trials Underway in the U.S.
Slide adapted from Dr. Reuben Arasaratnam; NYT Vaccine Tracker https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
Phase 3 completeEUA granted
Phase 3 completeEUA granted
Oxford/Astra Zeneca
Johnson & Johnson
Pfizer
Moderna
Viral Vector Vaccine
mRNA Vaccine
❄
❄Phase 3 preliminary analysis
Phase 3 preliminary analysis
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/science/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker.html
What Do We Know About the Vaccine Frontrunners?
Vaccine Mechanism of Action
Phase Efficacy Results Comments
Pfizer/BioNTech mRNA Phase 3 complete, EUA granted
95% efficacy after 170 cases, severe cases 9 placebo vs. 1 vaccine
Requires freezer for storage, efficacy over 94% in pts > 65 years, no safety concerns
Moderna mRNA Phase 3 complete, EUA granted
94.5% efficacy after 95 cases, severe cases 11 placebo vs. 0 vaccine
Stable at refrigerator temp x 30 days, no safety concerns
Oxford/Astra Zeneca
Chimp adenovirus vector
Phase 3 interim analysis
70% efficacy after 131 cases; 90% after half dose/full dose, 62% after 2 full doses
Less stability issues, but safety data remains open question
J & J Adenovirus vector
Phase 3 analysis Unknown Less stability issue, safety data pending, single dose
Side effects, contraindica/ons, special popula/ons
Vaccine # Doses Side effects Pregnancy
Immunosuppressed
Autoimmune
Pfizer/BioNTech
50 million 12/2020, 1.3 billion in 2021
Pain, fatigue, HA, muscle, joint pain, chills, fever, vomiting; bell’s palsy > after 2nddose
Minimal data; can be given
Minimal data; can be given
Minimal data; can be given
Moderna 20 million 12/2020, 80 million in 2021 (US)
Pain, fatigue, HA, muscle, joint pain, chills, fever, vomiting; bell’s palsy, allergic rnx; SE > after 2nd dose
Minimal data; can be given
Minimal data; can be given
Minimal data; can be given
Oxford/Astra Zeneca
3 billion in 2021
Pain, fatigue, HA, muscle, joint pain, chills, fever, nausea; Rare transverse myelitis
unknown unknown unknown
J & J 1 billion in 2021
Unknown Unknown unknown unknown
Reactogenicity: Comparison to Other Vaccines
Comparing Pfizer and Moderna Vaccines
h$ps://www.news10.com/news/pfizer-vs-moderna-covid-19-vaccine-whats-the-difference/18
Post-Vaccine Safety Surveillance
CDC VRBPAC Presentation Dr. Nancy Messioner 12/10/20
V-safe | AQer Vaccina/on Health Tracker
How Many People in the US Are in the Higher Priority Groups?
Theoretical Vaccine Distribution Timeline
Source: Robert M. Wachter, M.D., UCSF
CORONAVIRUSTRAVEL SENTIMENT
INDEX REPORT
Highlights on COVID-19 Vaccines Impact on Travel Sentiment
January 21st, 2021
METHODOLOGY•Weekly tracking survey of a representative sample of adult American travelers in each of four U.S. regions
•Designed to track traveler sentiment and generate insights into when tourism businesses can expect demand to return and from whom
•Week 45 data (fielded January 15-17) will be presented today
•1,200+ fully completed surveys collected each wave
•Confidence interval of +/- 2.8%
•Data is weighted to reflect the actual population of each region
A LOOK BACK ON 2020:
What One Word Best Describes How You Feel about Travel?
Feelings About Travel: Historical Perspective
Question: What ONE WORD best describes how you feel about travel right now?
Marc
h
April
October
May
What ONE WORD best describes how you feel about travel in 2021?
21.8%23.9%
61.5%
43.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
March
13-15
April
3-5
April
24-26
May 1
5-17
June 5
-7
June 2
6-28
July 1
7-19
Augu
st 7-9
Augu
st 28-
30
Septe
mber
18-20
Octob
er 9-
11
Oct 3
0-Nov
1
Nove
mber
20-22
Decem
ber 1
1-13
Janua
ry 1-3
EXPECTATIONS FOR THE CORONAVIRUS OUTBREAK (WAVES 1-45)
Question: In the NEXT MONTH, how (if at all) do you expect the severity of the coronavirus situation in the United States to change?
In the next month the coronavirus situation will ________
(Base: Waves 1-45. All respondents, 1,201, 1,200, 1,201, 1,216, 1,263, 1,238, 1,208, 1,204, 1,200, 1,212, 1,223, 1,257, 1,214, 1,214, 1,205, 1,231, 1,365, 1,213, 1,200, 1,206, 1,224, 1,201, 1,202, 1,207, 1,250, 1,225, 1,205, 1,200, 1,205, 1,203, 1,203, 1,204, 1,203, 1,203, 1,205, 1,206, 1,205, 1,205, 1,204, 1,206, 1,201, 1,207, 1,206, 1,225 and 1,205 completed surveys.)
“Worse” or “Much worse”
“Better” or “Much better”
FEELINGS ABOUT A COVID-19 VACCINE
How much do you agree with the following statement?
Statement: I'm not traveling until I am able to get a vaccine.
(Base: Waves 6-45. All respondents, 1,238, 1,208, 1,204, 1,200, 1,212, 1,223, 1,257, 1,214, 1,214, 1,205, 1,231, 1,365, 1,213, 1,200, 1,206, 1,224, 1,201, 1,202, 1,207, 1,250, 1,225, 1,205, 1,200, 1,205, 1,203, 1,203, 1,204, 1,203, 1,203, 1,205, 1,206, 1,205, 1,205, 1,204, 1,206, 1,201, 1,207, 1,206, 1,225 and 1,205 completed surveys.)
Strongly
agree, 25.5%
Agree, 19.5%
Neutral …
Disagree,
14.9%
Strongl…
TRAVEL UNTIL GETTING THE VACCINE
36.5%
45.0%
33.1%29.9%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
April
24-26
May 8
-1
May 2
2-24
June 5
-7
June 1
9-21
July 3
-5
July 1
7-19
July 3
1-Aug
2
Aug 1
4-16
Aug 2
8-30
Sep 1
1-13
Sep 2
5-27
Oct 9
-11
Oct 2
3-25
Nov 6
-8
Nov 2
0-22
Dec 4
-6
Dec 1
8-20
Jan 1-
3
Jan 15
-17
Agree or Strongly AgreeDisagree or Strongly Disagree
Historical data
How much do you agree with the following statement?Statement: I'm not traveling until vaccines are made widely available.
(Base: Waves 41-45. All respondents, 1,201, 1,207, 1,206, 1,225 and 1,205 completed surveys.)
Strongly
agree, 25.9%
Agree, 23.8%
Neutral …
Disagree,
12.7%
Strongl…
TRAVEL UNTIL VACCINES ARE MADE WIDELY AVAILABLE
49.6% 51.5% 46.7% 48.7% 49.7%
29.4% 28.9% 30.5% 29.5% 26.6%20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Dec 18-20
Dec 25-27
Jan 1-3 Jan 8-10 Jan 15-17
Agree or Strongly AgreeDisagree or Strongly Disagree
Historical data
EXPECTED SAFETY OF COVID-19 VACCINES
Question: How safe do you expect a COVID-19 vaccine will ultimately be? (Select one)
(Base: Waves 45 data. All respondents, 1,205 completed surveys. Data collected Jan 15-17, 2021) 50.3%55.0%
58.6%55.5%53.3%62.4%61.6%63.8%63.3%
67.8%63.4%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%
Nov…
Nov…
Nov…
Nov…
Dec…
Dec…
Dec…
Dec…
Jan…
Jan…
Jan…
Historical data (% Safe or Very safe)
EXPECTATIONS TO TAKE A COVID-19 VACCINE
Question: Do you expect that you will take one of the recently developed COVID-19 vaccines?
44.1%41.5%39.2%42.0%46.2%
40.7%44.7%49.6%51.7%54.1%
60.1%61.4%58.6%
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%
Septe
mber
11-1
3
Octob
er 2-
4
Nove
mber
6-8
Nove
mber
13-1
5
Nove
mber
20-2
2
Nove
mber
27-2
9
Dece
mber
4-6
Dece
mber
11-1
3
Dece
mber
18-2
0
Dece
mber
25-2
7
Janu
ary 1
-3
Janu
ary 8
-10
Jan 1
5-17
% Who Say Yes
(Base: Waves 45 data. All respondents, 1,205 completed surveys. Data collected Jan 15-17, 2021)
VACCINES FOR CHILDREN
Question: Will you have your children take a COVID-19 vaccine? (Select one)
(Base: Wave 45 data. Respondents with
school-aged children, 441 completed
surveys. Data collected Jan 15-17,
2021)
Yes, 50.4%
No, 27.1%
Maybe,
15.9%
I don't know, 6.5%
53.2%Last
week
SUMMER TRAVEL & CHILDREN’S VACCINATION
Question: Please think now about your family travels NEXT SUMMER. Imagine that by next summer COVID-19 vaccinations have been widely distributed amongst adults, but children have not yet been widely vaccinated. Your children have not yet been vaccinated.
Would this situation be likely to stop you from taking a family vacation next summer? (Select one that best describes you)
(Base: Wave 39 data. Respondents with school age children they
travel with, 353 completed surveys. Data collected December 4-6,
2020) 4.2%
11.8%
32.4%
25.7%
25.8%
-10% 10% 30% 50%
Not applicable
I don't know /I'm not sure
No, this wouldnot likely stop…
Maybe, I'dassess the…
Yes, I won'ttravel if the…
VACCINES AND OPTIMISM FOR A RETURN TO NORMAL
Question: Does recent news about vaccine developments affect your optimism about life returning to normal (or near normal) in the next SIX (6) MONTHS? (Select one to fill in the blank)
The vaccine news has made me _______________________ about life returning to normal (or near normal) in the next six months.(Base: Waves 45 data. All respondents, 1,205 completed surveys. Data collected Jan 15-17, 2021)
3.1%
3.6%
37.0%
37.5%
18.8%
0%10%20%30%40%50%
Much less…
Less optimistic
Neutral…
More optimistic
Much more… 56.3%
3.0%
3.9%
42.2%
34.3%
16.7%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Much less…
Less optimistic
Neutral…
More optimistic
Much more…
VACCINES AND OPTIMISM FOR SAFE TRAVEL
Question: Does recent news about vaccine developments affect your optimism about being able to travel safely in the next SIX (6) MONTHS? (Select one to fill in the blank)
The vaccine news has made me _______________________ about BEING ABLE TO TRAVEL SAFELY in the next six months.
(Base: Waves 45 data. All respondents, 1,205 completed surveys. Data collected Jan 15-17, 2021)
51.0%
TRAVEL PLANS DUE TO COVID-19 VACCINES
Question: Have you begun planning (or booking) any future travel in anticipation of the COVID-19 vaccine being widely available? (Select one)
(Base: Waves 45 data. All respondents, 1,205 completed surveys. Data collected Jan 15-17, 2021)
Yes, 31.4%
No, 68.6%
Millennials or younger –42.6%Gen X – 31.4%Baby Boomers or older –20.2%
Question: If proof of having taken a vaccine is required of all attendees at a live event or festival, how would that affect your level of comfort in attending the event? (Select one to complete the sentence)
If all attendees were required to have taken a vaccine, I'd be _________________ attending.
(Base: Waves 45 data. All respondents, 1,205 completed surveys. Data collected January 15-17, 2021)
REQUIRED COVID-19 VACCINATIONS AND COMFORT ATTENDING
5.7%
3.2%
40.0%
31.3%
19.7%
0% 20% 40% 60%
Much less…
Less comfortable
Neutral (Neither…
More comfortable
Much more…51.0%
KEY TAKEAWAYS• Right now, 58.6 % of Americans expect to take a
COVID-19 vaccine and the majority expect they will be inoculated by this June
• Older Americans are likeliest to feel the current COVID vaccines are safe and most willing to take one. Younger travelers, while not as likely as older travelers to take a vaccine, are likeliest to be planning travel in anticipatin of vaccines being widely available
• Despite challenges, vaccine distribution is still driving optimism about a return to normal—and travel normal—in the next 6 months
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@DA_Research
@Destination Analysts Research
@DestinationAnalysts
@Destination Analyst, Inc
THANK YOU
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