2014 UK Future Energy Scenarios - Energy Supply
Post on 11-Aug-2014
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Twitter: #ukenergyemail: transmission.ukfes@nationalgrid.com
Energy SupplyMarcus Stewart : Energy Supply Manager
X
Generation position 2014 vs 2013
2
Net Position -0.9 GW
But 3GW of new projects cancelled...
Closures -3.7 GWReturns 2 GW
Openings 1.1 GW
2013
/14
2014
/15
2015
/16
2016
/17
2017
/18
2018
/19
2019
/20
2020
/21
2021
/22
2022
/23
2023
/24
2024
/25
2025
/26
2026
/27
2027
/28
2028
/29
2029
/30
2030
/31
2031
/32
2032
/33
2033
/34
2034
/35
2035
/36
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
GG14 SP14 NP14 LCL 14
In all scenarios IED opt out plantrun down by early 2020’s
3
Aggressive closure profile across all scenarios with GG and SP at lower end
Minimal amount of plant remaining is assumed to comply with IED or be converting to CCS
Early IED opt out
The increase in gas fired plant in order to compensate for coal closure profile
Coal
Security of supply outlook
4
LOLE*
Decreasing security of supply
Increasing security of supply
*Loss of Load Expectation (LoLE) is measurement of the risk to consumers’ power supplies, and the Reliability Standard set by government is the maximum acceptable value of LoLE.
Security of supply outlook
5
Mid decade products SBR and DSBR to address
EMR Capacity mechanism in place
LOLE
2020 Generation mix
% 339 TWh 338 TWh 345 TWh 353 TWh100908070605040302010
6
2035 Generation mix
% 424 TWh 331 TWh 339 TWh 406 TWh100908070605040302010
7
8
Key Messages
Aggressive coal closure assumptions
Gas most likely to fill gap, but market intervention needed
Beyond 2020 technology range broadens across the scenarios
Shale - Hero or Zero?
9
2035 Import dependency
10
SWING-O-METER
90%40% 50% 70%
Low Carbon Life
11
No Progression
12
13
Key Messages
Shale assumptions determine import dependency
Large variation across scenarios
Existing importation capacity can meet all scenarios
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