2 michael taylor irena rountable siew costing analysis presentation

The True Costs of Renewables:

Michael TaylorSenior Analyst

SIEW

30 October 2014

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Global Investment in Renewable Energy

The Energy Sector is Being Transformed

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A virtuous cycle is unlocking the economic, social and environmental

benefits of renewables

BUTTHE ABSENCE OF UP-TO-DATE

COST DATA IS A BARRIERIRENA IS RAMPING UP ITS WORK

IRENA now has…

A world class database

Cutting edge analysis

Transparent, verifiable data

Global coverage

A dynamic new web portal

Renewables are increasingly

competitive!

IRENA’s analysis of 9000

utility-scale projects and 200k

small-scale solar PV

Higher capacity

factors from improved

technology

Wind turbine cost

reductions

Costs are falling….

Wind Power

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Recent solar PV cost trends

Rapidly declining solar PV module prices…..

…..and installed costs

Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database, BNEF and Global Data

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Recent solar PV cost trends

Rapidly declining solar PV module prices…..

…..and installed costs

Source: IRENA Renewable Cost Database, BNEF and Global Data

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Renewable costs in SE Asia

WindSolar PV

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Levelised cost of electricity

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Biodiesel production costs (2009 to 2010)

Conventional biofuels: Biodiesel

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Advanced biofuels

Numerous advantages

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Advanced biofuels

Electrification

• Battery pack costs are still too high, EV’s could be a more interesting solution than PHEV’s16

Pure electric vehicles

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Outlook to 2020 and beyond is promising

Advanced biofuels and

electrification to be competitive

Don’t forget biomethane

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Rationale and goals

Low hanging fruit is gone

Shift the emphasis

Engage with industry

Deepen the analysis

Collect more, better data

Member countries

Private sector members

Observers21

Alliance structure

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Upcoming work

Renewable power costs in 2014

PV parity indicators

Stationary applications

Global wind learning curve

RE power cost reduction potentials

RE and energy security

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Transparent data

Simple methodology

Timely and policy relevant information

IRENA’s reneable cost analysis

Thank you!

mtaylor@irena.org www.irena.org/costs

IRENA’s Cost Analysis

Bring Our Future Forward

ADDITIONAL SLIDES

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Renewable costs in SE Asia

Biomass for power

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Renewable costs in SE Asia

Hydropower

Doubling the share of

renewable energy by 2030

Doubling the share of renewable energy implies a

tripling of the share of modern renewables.

With Renewables + Efficiency

we can achieve a 450ppm Path

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Scaling-up All Renewable

Energy Sources

Total Renewable Energy consumption in REmap 2030: 132 EJ/yr

REMAP 2030 RE energy shares

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Large and sustained financing needs

Quadrupling

modern RE use:

average investment

~USD 550 bn/year to

2030

Annual system costs in 2030 allowing for externalities:

SAVINGS of ~USD 230-740 bn/year!

IRENA’S

PV PARITY INDICATORS

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PV Parity Indicators

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• Tracks quarterly competiveness

• Indicators, not actual costs

• Target audience are policy makers and thought leaders

• Start with North America

• Can lead to more detailed analysis

• Supports other IRENA activities

Methodology

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• Simple metrics

• LCOE vs Effective Electricity Rate/Value• Require detailed assumptions & analysis

37Recent module price reductions make solar PV competitive

Residential PV Parity: A nuanced story

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Residential PV Parity: San Francisco

Minimum effective electricity rate

Maximum effective electricity rate

Average California electricity rate (EIA)

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Installed cost variation by city

Consistently wide variation in installed costs, why?

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Transparent data

Simple methodology

Timely and policy relevant information

IRENA’s PV cost analysis

IRENA’s PV Cost Analysis

41Bringing Our Future Forward