1 worldfish gfsf progress-rome may23-28 2015

GFSF Worldfish Activity GFSF Worldfish Activity ProgressProgress

Tran Van Nhuong, Chan Chin Yee

Worldfish GFSF 2015 Workplan/Deliverables

Fish to 2050 report: using IMPACT model WorldFish & IFPRI working paper

Q2/2016?

Fish supply and demand modelling projection for Indonesia using the ASIAFISH modelling approach

WorldFish Working Paper

Q3/2015

Spatially-explicit scenarios for aquaculture targets and zoning in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam

WorldFish Working Paper

Q4/2015

Fish to 2050 report with IMPACT model

Fish to 2050 report: technological change, environmental limit, and futures of fish supply

INDONESIA WORK

Fish supply and demand modelling projection for Indonesia using the ASIAFISH/fish sector modelling approach

Vietnam Work

Spatially-explicit scenarios for aquaculture targets and zoning in the Mekong River Delta of Vietnam

Modelling with ASIAFISH

Supply: domestic supply + foreign supplySupply = f(output price, input price, other non-price factors)

Import = Armington trade solution

Demand: domestic demand + foreign demand Demand =f (product price, income, other factors)

Export= Armington trade solution

Model closing conditions: Supply == Demand

Asia Fish sector Model Framework

Factor DD/SS Shifters

Factor market

Producer core

Product markets

Consumer core

Product demand shifters

Profit functions, System of output supply and factor demand equations

Supply of imports

Technology, Environment, and policy shifters

Demand for exports

System of consumers demand equations

D S

D S

D SDD: DD from other sectors

(livestock) Trade and exchange

rate policies SS: Import subsidies Taxes Domestic industry

efficiency SS Shifter: Population growth Migration Employment outside

fisheries/aquaculture sector

Population growth

Income growth

International trade

Tariff/ taxes

D S

Scenarios for ASIAFISH model

• Implications of socio-economic growth (income, population)

• Implications of factor prices (e.g., fertilizer, labor)

• Trade implications (e.g., import prices, export prices, exchange rate)

• Climate change, technological change

ASIAFISH MODEL INDONESIA

Initial results….

Thank you!

n.tran@cgiar.org

c.chan@cgiar.org