® Welcome to the Real World: Force Structure Trade-Offs Robert David Steele Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….

®

Welcome to the Real World:Force Structure Trade-Offs

Robert David Steele

<bear@oss.net>

Truth Helps, But Only When You Listen….

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®

Terms of Reference

I am constantly being asked for a bottom-line defense number. I don't know of any logical way to arrive at such a figure without analyzing the threat; without determining what changes in our strategy should be made in light of the changes in the threat; and then determining what force structure and weapons programs we need to carry out this revised strategy.

Senator Sam Nunn

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Conflict Specifics for 1995-2000

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000HIC Levels Off

LIC Business is Good

Internal Political & Ethnic Violence Goes Through the Roof

High-Intensity Conflict Low-Intensity Conflict Internal War

Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman

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Conflict Facts for 200026 LIC+, 78 LIC-, 178 VPC

Source: PIOOM (NL), data with permission © 2000 A. Jongman

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Ethnic Fault Lines 200043 Genocide Campaigns On-Going Today

Source: Dr. Greg Stanton

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Water & War

Source: The State of the World Atlas (1997), chart 54, 53

Hyper-Arid

Sub-Humid

Arid

Semi-Arid

Water Pollution

1

2

34

5

6

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Collateral Specifics for 2000

Complex Emergencies29 Countries

Refugees/Displaced67 Countries

Food Security27 Countries

Child Soldiers42 Countries

Modern Plagues*59 Countries & Rising

Peacekeeping Forces18 UN, 20 Other

Landmines62 Countries

Torture Common94 Countries

Corruption Common78 Countries

Censorship Very High63 Countries

*State of the World Atlas (1997), all others from PIOOM Map

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10%

50%

25%

15%

State vs State

State vs Nation

Inter-Ethnic Tribal

Gang Wars, Genocide,Decolonization

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1. Break-Out 2. Black Death 3. Barricade (Good or Bad)

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Four Threat TypesPHYSICAL

STEALTH,

PRECISION

TARGETING

NATURAL

STEALTH,

RANDOM

TARGETING

CYBER -

STEALTH,

DATABASE

TARGETING

IDEO -

STEALTH,

MASS

TARGETING

GUERRILLAWAR

CULTURALWAR

HIGH TECH

BRUTES

(MIC / HIC)

LOW TECH

BRUTES

(LIC)

HIGH TECH

SEERS

(C3I WAR)

LOW TECH

SEERS

(JIHAD)

MONEY--RUTHLESSNESS

POWER BASE

KNOWLEDGE--IDEOLOGY

TERRORISMECONOMICWAR

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HIC/MRC STRATEGIC NUCLEAR AND CONVENTIONAL

MILITARY WAR

SOLIC/LEA UNCONVENTIONAL

LOW INTENSITY CONFLICT AND GANG

WARFARE

IO/ECON INFORMATION WAR/ CRIME & ECONOMIC

ESPIONAGE

MINDWAR RELIGIOUS, POLITICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL

REFUGEES

PROLIFERATION/JIHAD

MIGRATION/ GREENPEACE

TERRORISM/ GLOBAL CRIME

INFOWAR/ ECONOMIC ESPIONAGE

Challenges

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Redefining Global Security

Security Council Resolution 751 of 24 April 1992“magnitude of human suffering”

(Somalia)constitutes threat to peace and security

This is a significant move away from previous UN standard, generally involving a cross-border dispute

between 2 or more states.

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Strategy Fundamentals

• People matter more than technology.

• Security strategy is holistic--must manage diplomacy, economics, culture, psychology, information and military in harmony.

• “War proper” is not just military force.

• Power without purpose is waste.

• Time is priceless. Use it or lose it!

• Trinity is violence, chance, and rationality.

• Strategic culture matters.

• Asymmetric threats have co-equal standing with symmetric threats.

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New Strategic Focus1

3

2

Was #

Oops. We all forgot Homeland Defense

0

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PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURETunnels, Pipelines, Bridges, Dams, Towers

ELECTRONIC INFRASTRUCTUREPower, Financial, Comms, Transportation

MILITARY ACHILLES’ HEELSOff-base power, down-links, antennas

ECONOMIC BLAHSNo Fly No Spend No Hire

DATACorruption

Public Health

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Individual as Threat

and Target

State as Threat

and Target

Defense Against Weapons Systems “Over There”

Defense of InfrastructureHere at Home

Offense Against Fixed Ground

Offense Against Distributed Groups

OLDNEW

PRIVATE SECTOR IS PRIMARY ACTOR

STATE IS PRIMARY ACTOR

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REDEFINING NATIONAL SECURITY

LONG TIMELONG TIME

SHORTSHORT TIME

WARWAR

PEACEPEACE

THERETHEREHEREHERE

INFORMATION INFORMATION WARFARE WARFARE

INFORMATION INFORMATION PEACEKEEPINGPEACEKEEPING

EDUCATIONEDUCATION INTELLIGENCEINTELLIGENCE

ELECTRONIC SECURITY ELECTRONIC SECURITY & & COUNTERINTELLIGENCECOUNTERINTELLIGENCE

Crime & Terrorism

Nation Building & Public

Diplomacy

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We Still Need Conventional Forces

We still need conventional forces and especially a 450-ship Navy:1) to provide sea-based fires, intelligence, logistics, and medical

2) to provide the amphibious flanking option3) to hold down a second front and protect sea lanes

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450-Ship NavyACTUAL ACTUAL PLANNED DESIRED

U.S. Navy Ship Type 1987 Navy 1998 Navy 2010 Navy 2010 Navy Notes

Ballistic Submarines 37 18 14 15Attack Submarines 102 65 50 50Troop/Attack Submarines 0 0 0 15 1Aircraft Carriers (Blue Water) 14 12 12 8Aircraft Carriers (Littoral Ops) 0 0 0 4 2Battleships 3 0 0 2Cruisers 36 29 27 36Destroyers 69 50 73 59 3Expediters (Modified DDs) 0 0 0 25 4Frigates 115 38 16 33Amphibious Warfare Ships 63 40 36 36 5Patrol Craft/Brown Water Ops 6 13 14 75 6Mine Warfare Ships 22 16 26 20 7Combat Logistics Ships 56 39 18 18Mobile Logistics Ships 19 19 9 9Fleet Support Ships 24 11 7 7Strategic Auxiliaries 6 1 7 5Other (AGF-LCC) 14 11 9 9Assistance Ships (Large) 0 0 0 8 8Assistance Ships (Small) 0 0 0 8 8Hospital Ships (Large) 2 2 2 3 9Hospital Ships (Small) 0 0 0 5 9

USMC Focus (%) 11% 11% 11% 14%Littoral Focus (%) 5% 9% 13% 31%TOTAL SHIPS 588 364 320 450 0

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HIC/MRC1/3 leap forward*

1/3 anti-old technologies1/3 focus on people

SOLIC/LEA1/3 sensing technology*

1/3 peace/civil technology1/3 focus on people

IO/ECON1/3 electronic security*1/3 counterintelligence

1/3 economic intelligence

MINDWAR1/3 historical thinking1/3 cultural thinking1/3 strategic thinking

RMA in Context Gets Failing Grade

*RMA today hits only 3 of 12 strategic investment needs.

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Net Assessment

• Nature of War is Fundamentally Changed

• RMA/Net Assessments Fall Woefully Short

• Corporations & NGOs are allies/belligerents

• Civil-Military-Reserve Triad Must Change

• Transformation through “Thinking People”

• Force Protection begins with Day-to-Day Common Cause--Peace Corps, USIA, State

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Means - Ends Disconnect

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

USA Allies Russia China Rogues

MilitaryDiplomacyHome Front

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Presidential Trade-Offs$100 million will buy:

1 Big Platform (Air or Sea) or

1,000 Potential George Kennan’s or

10,000 Peace Corps Volunteers or

1,000,000 cubic meters of desalinated water

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Minimalist Budget Fixes

Program 50 Modifications• Kill 2+/JV 2010 (-5.0)

• Kill Missile Defense (-3.0)

• Kill new attack sub (-2.0)

• Kill Fancy TacAir (-5.0)

• Kill CVN & DD 21 (-5.0)

• Build 450-ship Navy (+5)

• Build the iii in 1+iii (+5)

• TOTAL: -10B/Year Net

Program 150 Increases• Digital Marshall Plan (+2)

• DGNI & GKF (+2)

• State Operations (+1)

• AIDx2 Water Focus (+2)

• Peace Corps x5 (+1)

• USIA + Culture (+1)

• NGO Subsidies (+1)

• TOTAL: +10B/Year

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HIC/MRC60% of the DoD Budget

75% Active/25% Reserve75% USG/25% Private

SOLIC/LEA20% of the DoD Budget

50% Active 50% Reserve50% USG/50% Private

IO/ECON10% of the DoD Budget

50% Active/50% Reserve25% USG/75% Private

MINDWAR10% of the DoD Budget

25% Active/75% Reserve50% USG/50% Private

Transformative Spending

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CORE FORCE

StrategistsAdvise Policy

ConstabularyStabilize Failed States

Domestic ThreatsFires, Riots, Epidemics

Citizen EducationBond Nation through Service

Force on ForceDeliberate Violence

Electronic SecuritySet Standards, Stand Watch

Small WarsRandom Violence

Ground TruthObserve with Warrior’s Eyes

New Force Structure Model

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New Strategy: 1 + iii

CINCWAR CINCSOLIC CINCPEACE CINCHOME

Strategic NBC Small Wars State/USIA Home Guard

Big War(s) Constabulary Peace Corps Border Patrol

Ground Truth Economic Aid Port Security

1 ii i

Electronic

Reserve

Reserve Reserve

Minutemen

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Sub-Strategies in Support

• Global intelligence burden-sharing strategy

• Global interoperability strategy

• 1+iii force structure acquisition strategy

• Preventive diplomacy strategy, fully funded

• Home front strategy leveraging Guard

• Ad hoc coalition strategy with strong Reserve

• Corporations/NGOs as allies and belligerents

®

Terrorism is now rampant across AmericaMillions of dispossessed across 67 countries

Plagues and epidemics in 59 countriesStarvation in 27 countries

Open season given to crime & narcotics

So, to summarize the situation….

What is the threat?

What is our strategy?

What structure is needed?

How do we fund it?

®

Welcome to the Real World:Force Structure Trade-Offs

Robert David Steele

<bear@oss.net>

There is no right answer….But it helps to understand reality.