Transition InitiativesTransition InitiativesFrom Oil Dependency to Local From Oil Dependency to Local Resilience.Resilience.
June 16June 16thth 2008. Rob Hopkins. 2008. Rob Hopkins. Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Transition Transition Town Totnes * TransitionCulture.org * Transition Network Network
The Petroleum Interval The Petroleum Interval
Peak Oil.Peak Oil.
From Energy Watch Group (2007) Crude Oil: the supply outlook.
Oil Producers (98)Oil Producers (98)
www.lastoilshock.com
Post Peak Oil Producers Post Peak Oil Producers (64)(64)
www.lastoilshock.com
Discovery peaked 40 years agoDiscovery peaked 40 years ago
Past discovery by ExxonMobil
0
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60
1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Gb
0
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Past
Future
Production
Past afterExxon-Mobil3yr moving average
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1930 1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050
Pro
du
cti
on
, G
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e/a
Non-con Gas
Gas
NGLs
Polar Oil
Deep Water
Heavy
Regular
Production peaks follow discovery.Production peaks follow discovery. ((You have to find it before you can produce it).You have to find it before you can produce it).
Source: Association for the Study of Peak Oil
President Bush in SaudiPresident Bush in Saudi
Terry Moran: "What can you say to the king here to get those high oil prices down?"
George Bush Well, I will say to him that if it is possible, your majesty, consider what high prices is doing to one of your largest customers . . ."
Moran then asks whether Americans might expect a tougher approach, one in which we essentially say, "you owe us" for all we have done for you.
Bush: "If they don't have a lot of additional oil to put on the market, it is hard to ask somebody to do something they may not be able to do."
World Unconventional World Unconventional Production Production 1936 - 20061936 - 2006
Filling the Gap: the Filling the Gap: the Unconventional Oils. Unconventional Oils.
New Brazilian New Brazilian ‘Superfield’‘Superfield’Will require;Will require; equipment that can withstand 18,000 pounds per equipment that can withstand 18,000 pounds per
square inch of pressure, enough to crush a square inch of pressure, enough to crush a pickup truckpickup truck
pipes that can carry oil at temperatures above pipes that can carry oil at temperatures above 500 degrees Fahrenheit (260 Celsius) 500 degrees Fahrenheit (260 Celsius)
drill bits that can penetrate layers of salt more drill bits that can penetrate layers of salt more than one mile thick and cost $50,000 eachthan one mile thick and cost $50,000 each
`̀This is a very, very technically challenging This is a very, very technically challenging environment where no one's ever done this, environment where no one's ever done this, these discoveries are in very deep water, and these discoveries are in very deep water, and once you get to the seabed they are very deep once you get to the seabed they are very deep under the floor, with a layer of salt that is under the floor, with a layer of salt that is definitely a difficult barrier’ definitely a difficult barrier’
The Growth in BiofuelsThe Growth in Biofuels
The UK: The Widening The UK: The Widening GapGap
Source: DTI
Gas? UK Continental Shelf Gas? UK Continental Shelf Annual Forecast & Import Annual Forecast & Import Requirement Requirement
Source – National Grid
““The UK is a The UK is a secondary priority. secondary priority. Like it or not, that is Like it or not, that is a fact”. a fact”.
Thor Otto Lohne, executive vice-Thor Otto Lohne, executive vice-president, Gassco. president, Gassco.
...Climate Change; Far ...Climate Change; Far Faster than Expected.Faster than Expected.
Spratt, D. (2007) The Big Melt: Lessons from the Arctic Summer of 2007. Carbon Equity.
Energy Return on Energy Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROEI)Invested (EROEI)
Carbon EmissionsCarbon Emissions
RapidDepletionand/or early peaking
SlowDepletionand/or later
peaking
Proactive ResponseGovernment, Society, Technology & Markets
Reactive ResponseMarkets, Technology, Society & Government
4 Energy Scenarios
3 1
24
RapidDepletionand/or early peaking
SlowDepletionand/or later
peaking
Proactive ResponseGovernment, Society, Technology & Markets
Reactive ResponseMarkets, Technology, Society & Government
4 Energy Scenarios
“Techno-Markets”aka “Sustainable Development”
“Burnout”aka “Climate Chaos”
aka “Business as Usual”
“Lean Economy” *aka “Powerdown”
“Collapse”aka “Mad Max”
aka “Easter Island”aka “90s Cuba/Russia”
* per David Fleming
Peak Oil & Climate ChangePeak Oil & Climate Change
CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE(a la Stern et al.)(a la Stern et al.) climate engineeringclimate engineering carbon capture and carbon capture and
storagestorage tree-based carbon tree-based carbon
offsetsoffsets international international
emissions tradingemissions trading climate adaptationclimate adaptation improved improved
transportation transportation logisticslogistics
nuclear powernuclear power
PLANNED PLANNED RELOCALISATIONRELOCALISATION
local resiliencelocal resilience carbon reductioncarbon reduction consume closer to homeconsume closer to home produce closer to homeproduce closer to home play closer to homeplay closer to home decentralised energy decentralised energy
infrastructureinfrastructure the Great Reskillingthe Great Reskilling localised foodlocalised food energy descent plansenergy descent plans local medicinal capacitylocal medicinal capacity local currencieslocal currencies
PEAK OILPEAK OIL(a la Hirsch et al.)(a la Hirsch et al.) coal to liquidscoal to liquids gas to liquidsgas to liquids relaxed drilling relaxed drilling
regulationsregulations massively scaled massively scaled
biofuelsbiofuels tar sands and non-tar sands and non-
conventional oilsconventional oils resource resource
nationalism and nationalism and stockpilingstockpiling
Principle #1. Resilience.Principle #1. Resilience.Totnes in the 1930’s…Totnes in the 1930’s…
© Totnes Image Bank
George Heath.George Heath.A Powerdown Pioneer.A Powerdown Pioneer.
© Totnes Image Bank
Food - Urban Gardens in Food - Urban Gardens in CubaCubaDowntown HavanaDowntown Havana
RelocalisationRelocalisation
“…“…localisation localisation stands, at best, at stands, at best, at the limits of the limits of practical possibility, practical possibility, but it has the but it has the decisive argument decisive argument in its favour that in its favour that there will be no there will be no alternative”alternative”
David FlemingDavid Fleming
Principle #2. Visioning
#3. Inclusion#3. Inclusion
#4. Awareness Raising#4. Awareness Raising
#5. Psychological Insights#5. Psychological Insights
#6. Credible and Appropriate #6. Credible and Appropriate Solutions.Solutions.
UK: Totnes , Penwith, Ivybridge, Falmouth , Moretonhampstead, Lewes, Stroud , Bristol, Brixton, Forest Row, Mayfield, Glastonbury, Lostwithiel, Forest of Dean,
Nottingham, Wrington , Brighton & Hove , Portobello, Scotland , Market Harborough, West Kirby , Llandeilo ,
Bro Dyfi , Whitstable, Marsden/Slaithwaite , Frome, Brampton, Isle of Wight ,
Dunbar, Scotland,
Ireland : Kinsale Australia: Sunshine Coast New Zealand : Waiheke Island, Orewa
The 12 Steps of Transition. The 12 Steps of Transition. Step Step 1: 1: Form a Steering Group and Form a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from the Design Its Demise from the Outset. Outset.
Step Two: Step Two: Awareness Raising…Awareness Raising…
Step 3:Step 3:Lay the Foundations.Lay the Foundations.
• Collaborate where possible
• Co-operation, not competition.
Working with BusinessWorking with BusinessOil Vulnerability Analysis. Oil Vulnerability Analysis.
Totnes first town in the UK to train OVA team and conduct pilot analyses.
Working with Liverpool University Oil Depletion Impact Group.
Two pilot studies reported back September 2007, more to follow.
Endorsed by Totnes Chamber of Commerce
Estates in Transition conference. June 11th 2007.
Working with Local Working with Local Landowners.Landowners.
Step 4.Step 4.The Official UnleashingThe Official Unleashing
“Maybe they will tell stories about what happened in Totnes. Maybe this evening will be something that is the beginning of one of those stories”.
Dr Chris Johnstone – TTT Unleashing Sept ’06.
Step 5:Step 5:Form Working Groups. Form Working Groups.
Up and RunningUp and RunningArts / Food / Energy / Economics / Arts / Food / Energy / Economics / Liaison with Local Government / Liaison with Local Government / Heart and Soul – the psychology Heart and Soul – the psychology of change / Medicine and Health /of change / Medicine and Health /Housing / Education / TransportHousing / Education / Transport
Step 6:Step 6:Use Open Space Use Open Space Technology. Technology.
Step 7:Step 7:Develop Visible Manifestations Develop Visible Manifestations of the Project. of the Project.
“Totnes, the Nut Tree Capital of Britain”. Tree Planting, January 2007.
The Totnes Local Food Directory.
The Totnes PoundThe Totnes Pound
Transition TalesTransition Tales
Step 8:Step 8:Facilitate the Great Facilitate the Great ReskillingReskilling
Skilling Up for Skilling Up for Powerdown.Powerdown.Peak Oil / Climate Change, Permaculture Principles, Food, Energy, Building and Housing, Woodlands, Water, Waste, Economics, The Psychology of Change, Energy Descent Planning…
Using You Tube to Communicate Transition Town ideas.
Great Reskilling courses. Great Reskilling courses.
Wild Foods, Wild Foods, natural natural building, seed building, seed saving, hand saving, hand made paints, made paints, stove building, stove building, forest forest gardening, food gardening, food growing, bread growing, bread making...making...
Step 9:Step 9:Build a Bridge to Local Build a Bridge to Local GovernmentGovernment
World Cafe on Peak Oil and Climate Change with Local Councillors
Endorsed by Totnes Town Council
Contributions to Local Development Framework.
Step 10:Step 10:Honour the Elders.Honour the Elders.
Step 11:Step 11:Let It Go Where It Wants to Let It Go Where It Wants to Go.Go.
Solar Water Heater Solar Water Heater Challenge.Challenge.
The Totnes Renewable The Totnes Renewable Energy Society (TRESOC)Energy Society (TRESOC)
Lending Library.Lending Library. NISP workshopsNISP workshops TTT International Youth TTT International Youth
Music Festival. Music Festival. Garden SwapGarden Swap
Step 12:Step 12:Create an Energy Descent Create an Energy Descent Action Plan. Action Plan.
Start with a vision and Start with a vision and then backcastthen backcast
Incorporate Transition Incorporate Transition TalesTales
Base it on current Base it on current planning documents.planning documents.
New ZealandNew Zealand IrelandIreland JapanJapan
National Scale HubsNational Scale Hubs
Devolved Nations: Transition Scotland Network•To support, network, encourage,
support and train Transition initiatives across Scotland
South East Transition InitiativesSouth East Transition Initiatives An evolution from Transition An evolution from Transition
Town Lewes and Forest RowTown Lewes and Forest Row Will initially take over Will initially take over
supporting, inspiring and trainingsupporting, inspiring and training
City Scale – Transition Bristol•Awareness raising•600 trees in ‘Virtual Orchard’•12 Neighbourhood groups
Regional Scale
Transition IslandsTransition Islands Isles of Scilly, Man and WightIsles of Scilly, Man and Wight
Transition Training•Run across the UK•Training the Trainer
Training•Transition Talk Training
We’ve Been Here We’ve Been Here BeforeBefore
...What Happened ...What Happened Then?Then?
www.transitionculture.orgwww.transitionculture.org
www.transitiontowns.org/Totneswww.transitiontowns.org/Totnes
. .
Now Available!
“The Transition Handbook: from oil dependency to local resilience” published by Green Books, 6th March 2008
