Trade ResponseTrade Responseto Global Downturnsto Global Downturns
Marney CoxMarney Cox
Chief Economist Chief Economist
SANDAGSANDAG
March 2010March 2010
Marney CoxMarney Cox
Chief Economist Chief Economist
SANDAGSANDAG
March 2010March 2010
US Trade Growth Outpacing GDP(Cumulative Growth Rate 1992-2008 current $)
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Exports Imports GDP
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Exports Imports GDP
3
Global Recession’s Impact on Trade(findings from World Bank Report, August 2009)
Elasticity of Trade Value to GDP is near 4.0 Trade values fall more than volumes Mean recovery time to previous peak 4 years Impacts vary across industries
Least severe: consumer products—food and beverages Most severe: durable commodities—iron and steel
Following crisis deficit or surplus conditions return
US GDP-Measuring the Decline(Index Q-O-Q Change from start of recession)
Start of Recession
Quarters
US Real Exports-Measuring the Impact(Index Q-O-Q Change from start of recession)
Start of Recession
Quarters
US Real Imports-Measuring the Impact(Index Q-O-Q Change from start of recession)
Start of Recession
Quarters
What’s Ahead?
US Continues to Shed Jobs (Index M-O-M Change from start of recession)
Start of Recession
Months
USUS Household Credit Debt OutstandingHousehold Credit Debt Outstanding(Billions $)(Billions $)
USUS Savings Rate Rising Savings Rate Rising(Monthly, SAAR)(Monthly, SAAR)
Shape of Recovery & Role of Trade
V, U, W…Nike swoosh…gradual & slow Orthodox view…trade recovery is slow
Value of trade falls more than volume Commodity and asset prices under pressure Majority of trade is intermediate goods Falling prices can increase trade volume
12
SD Economic Opportunity is Knocking at California’s Southern Door
Mexico is CA largest export market
Otay Mesa is CA/MX busiest trade border crossing
1.5 million trucks per year $36B in trade
95% of regional freight movement is carried by truck
SD Value of Trade Has Nearly Tripled(San Diego Customs District, $Millions)(San Diego Customs District, $Millions)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Imports Exports
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Imports Exports
SD Trade Growth Outpacing GRP(Cumulative Growth Rate 1992-2008 current $)
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Exports Imports GRP
0%
100%
200%
300%
400%
500%
600%
1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Exports Imports GRP
SD Otay Mesa Commercial POECurrent ”Congested” Conditions
4.36 million working hours of delay annually
$1,256
$2,069
SD Border Delays Reduce Trade…and (Delay range: autos 45 min.-2hrs. Trucks 2hrs.-6hrs.)
$0
$4,000
$8,000
$12,000
$16,000
Exports to Mexico Imports from Mexico
$9,382
$13,793
Ou
tpu
t (
in m
illion
s)
Lost Export Opportunities
= 13%
Lost Import Opportunities
= 15%
…Economic Growth (Border Delay Annual Impact to United States & Mexico)
73,900 JOBS LOST =
$8.63 Billion in OUTPUT LOST =23 Super
Bowls
4½ Google
Companies
SD SR11 Project Study Area
SD SR11 Project Progress
» Toll Legislation Approved – SB 1486 (Ducheny)
» U.S. Presidential Permit Approved» Exchange of Diplomatic Notes with Mexico» Tier I Program EIS/EIR Approved» Scoping Document: Project Study Report » Transportation Border Congestion Relief
Program (TBCRP) Designation
Programmed Funding Available:
State (STIP) Tier II Env./Eng. $13.0 M
Federal (SAFETEA-LU) Tier II Env./Eng. $ .8 M
State (Prop. 1B TCIF) Construction $75.0 M
Total $88.8 M
Remaining Funds Needed:(Toll Funds/Other): $526.2 - 626.2 M
SD SR11 Estimated Project Budget: $615-$715 Million
Develop Financial Strategy 2009
Tier II Environmental Doc. 2010
Design/Right of Way 2011
Begin Construction 2012-13
Open New Trade Gateway 2014-15
SD SR11 Project Schedule
Trade ResponseTrade Responseto Global Downturnsto Global Downturns
Marney CoxMarney Cox
Chief Economist Chief Economist
SANDAGSANDAG
March 2010March 2010
Marney CoxMarney Cox
Chief Economist Chief Economist
SANDAGSANDAG
March 2010March 2010
