Target Setting for Child Outcomes

Target Setting for Child Outcomes

Conference Call

October 30, 20091

Today we will discuss

• Baseline data trends• Data analysis to help

set targets• Involving stakeholders• Target data trends• Improvement planning

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The Summary Statements

• Of those children who entered or exited the program below age expectations in each Outcome, the percent who substantially increased their rate of growth by the time they exited the program.

• The percent of children who were functioning within age expectations in each Outcome by the time they exited the program.

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What is due in February, 2010?

In Feb, 2010 SPP/APR report, states:• Establish baseline for C3/B7

• Calculate 2 summary statements based on your a-e progress categories

• Baseline must (and can only) include all children who exited between 7/1/08 and 6/30/09

• Set targets for FFY 2009 and FFY 2010• Targets for FFY 2009 can be lower than baseline• Targets for FFY 2010 must be higher than baseline

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APR Reporting Feb, 2011

• Report actual data• Compare actual data to FFY 2009 targets and discuss progress

or slippage• HAVE THE OPTION to revise baseline using actual data

reported in 2011 if the state believes the original baseline was inaccurate

• If you revise baseline, you MUST provide rationale for revising

• If you revise baseline, you may also revise targets for FFY 2010 based on new baseline

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Baseline and Targets: Typical Timelines

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In Feb, 2010

Actual data= baseline

Targets for FFY 2009


In Feb, 2011

Actual data Compared to FFY 2009 target

Progress or slippage; met or did not meet target

In Feb, 2012

Actual data Compared to FFY2010 target


OR Baseline and Target can be Revised in Feb, 2011

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In Feb, 2010




In Feb, 2011

Actual data= revised baseline

Compared to FFY2009 target


Revise Target for FFY 2010

In Feb, 2012

Actual data Compared to revised FFY2010 target


Reasons for Expected State Variation

• States have different eligibility criteria

• Some states may not yet have representative data (phasing in outcomes data collection)

• Some states are still working on improving data quality

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Looking at data by

local program

e.g. “e” category and SS2

Looking at data by

local program

e.g. “b” category and SS1

Comparing by Eligibility

Category

Early Childhood Outcomes Center27

Summarize across local

programs

Early Childhood Outcomes Center29

Local ID (N)

A low

A high

B low

B high

C low

C high

A SS1 lo

A SS1 hi

A SS2 lo

A SS2 hi

B SS1 lo

B SS1 hi

B SS2 lo

B SS2 hi

C SS1 lo

C SS1 hi

C SS2 lo

C SS2 hi

1 (152)

2 (61) x x

3 (52) x x

4 (37) x x x x x

5 (50)

6 (76) x

7 (47)

8 (33) x

9 (30) x x x x

10 (45) x

11 (127)

12 (69)

13 (42) x x x x x

14 (152)

15 (74) x x x

Summary of Outliers in Local System Data

Possible Reasons for Outliers

• “bad data”-Not using data collection tools appropriately

• “good data”- serving different population of children

• “good data”- related to different program practices

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ECO/NECTAC Resourcesre: target setting

• Summary statement calculator -- http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/pages/summary.cfm

• National Conference calls http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/pages/archive.cfm – Conference Call on Summary Statements - June 9, 2009– Conference Call on Target Setting - June 16, 2009– Conference Call on Updating SPP/APR Indicators – August 13,

2009• Suggested format for Feb 2010 SPP/APR:

http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/pages/fed_req.cfm#UpdatingSPPIndicators

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ECO/NECTAC Resourcesre: target setting

• Individualized TA with states:

– Supporting states in preparing for stakeholder discussions on target setting

– Supporting states in looking at their data in various ways

Resources:

• Looking at State data: http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/assets/ppt/4-statedata.ppt

• Playing with data: http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/assets/xls/SummaryStatements-PLAY.xls

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Resources for Stakeholder Groups

• Overview PPT titled “Opening”: includes overview to why report outcomes data, the 3 outcome areas, the 5 progress categories, target setting

http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/assets/ppt/1-opening.ppt • PPT titled “Summary Statements”:

http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/assets/ppt/2-summarystatements-settingtargets.ppt

• PPT titled “EIA”: interpreting data and planning improvement activities

http://www.fpg.unc.edu/~eco/assets/ppt/3-EIA.ppt 33

Baseline and Targets: Typical Timelines

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In Feb, 2010




In Feb, 2011

Actual data Compared to FFY 2009 target


In Feb, 2012

Actual data Compared to FFY2010 target


OR Baseline and Target can be Revised in Feb, 2011

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In Feb, 2010




In Feb, 2011

Actual data= revised baseline

Compared to FFY2009 target


Revise Target for FFY 2010

In Feb, 2012

Actual data Compared to revised FFY2010 target


Comments?

Reactions?

Questions?

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Target Setting for Child Outcomes

Documents

Target Setting for Child Outcomes