Five Behaviors That Can Reduce Schedule Risk
Getting Started Today
Craig Peterson, PMP
Multi-Discipline System Engineer
The MITRE Corporation
Co-Author: C. Leigh Filiatrault, PMP
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Today’s Presentation
Today’s presentation is about
reducing schedule risk by:
• Identifying and addressing common negative behaviors
• Implementing techniques that reinforce positive behaviors
• Improving risk management
It is assumed that project planning, risk management and project schedules have already been implemented.
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Today’s Presentation
Today’s presentation is not about:
• Providing Critical Chain Project Management (CCPM) Training (but there will be a small review)
• Teaching basic project management techniques
• Debating traditional project management vs. CCPM
Underlying Principle: There is no substitute for solid project planning, estimating and risk management practices.
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A Project’s Goal
Can we all agree that ……
The GoalProject delivers results that
satisfy customers
Necessary Condition
Meet or exceed technical requirements
Necessary Condition
Meet or exceed technical requirements
Necessary Condition
Meet or exceed schedulecommitment
Necessary Condition
Meet or exceed schedulecommitment
Necessary Condition
Meet or exceed quality requirements
Necessary Condition
Meet or exceed quality requirements
Necessary Condition
Meet or exceed costcommitment
Necessary Condition
Meet or exceed costcommitment
= and= and
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What is Seen on Typical Projects
What’s normal …...
Project duration is expanded
Scope is sacrificed to meet deadlines
Quality is traded off
Projects overrun their original budgets
Deliver at anappropriate cost
(Budget)
Deliver the requiredfunctionality
(Scope)
Deliver the appropriate fitness for use (Quality)
Deliver at thecorrect time(Schedule)
Project Project “Tension Pyramid”“Tension Pyramid”
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Schedule Estimates
TimeTime
Most LikelyMost Likely{50/50}{50/50}
Eff
ort
Eff
ort Which estimate Which estimate
Is really Is really provided?provided?
??
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Why Improvements Not Realized
Tasks do not finish early, despite inflated estimates• Contingency time is wasted
Realize no gains from positive schedule variations• Rarely see tasks completing early!
Critical Path shifts, causing shifts in project focus
Metrics• Collects data about the past to predict the future
…… but does nothing to directly insure completion of project on scheduled date
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Theory of Constraints Basics
All businesses are systems (dependent events)
All systems must have a constraint that limits output, and, therefore, non-constraints have excess capacity
System Output = Throughput = Organization’s Goal
System optimum is not the sum of the local optima
Measurements should:• induce what is good for the whole
(system optima = “The Goal”)• direct managers to parts needing attention
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Theory of Constraints Basics (cont.)
Therefore:
Time lost at the constraint is lost forever
or
Non-constraint improvements = Waste (in two different categories)
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Theory of Constraints Basics (cont.)
Managing the Constraint (The 5 Focusing Steps)• Identify• Exploit• Subordinate• Elevate• Prevent Inertia
Production Management Tool (DBR)• Drum - Constraint sets the system’s pace• Buffer - Never starve the constraint (time lost)• Rope - Constraint controls release of new work
Measurement Point = DBR (Nothing else is needed)
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TOC to Critical Chain
The Thinking Process
• Outline the PM process
• Identify Failure Point
• Add “Injections”
• Test for sufficiency
• Critical Chain is born!
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Critical Chain & Risk Management
Goldratt calls Critical Chain an Uncertainty Management Tool
Uncertainty does not equal Risk Management here, but ….
• Does build in contingency for low grade risks.
• Reduced schedule means less time for changes.
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Pros
Focuses on project constraints.
Dramatic schedule reductions.
Easy project status reporting.
MS Project add-on software exists.
Does not “conflict” with other approaches.
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Cons
Resourced schedules required.
Risks not directly addressed by methodology.• Uses buffers to address most risk.• Still need to do some other risk planning/tracking.
Less detail puts greater burden on task leadership.
Must get behavioral changes in place / institutionalized.
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Take Away Points
Even if not ready to adopt, consider …...
Manage & protect constraints• Project is the goal Do all see the single goal?
What limits progress?
Change project team behavior• Metrics affects What is being
incentivized?• Make “new habits” Roadrunner
No Multi-TaskingManage to effort (not
)Take-away Line: Or … instead of adopting … take some lesson’s learned! Lets look at the injections
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The Five Negative Behaviors
According to CCPM, there are Five Common behaviors that
appear to support good project management, but are
actually, detrimental. They are:
1. Protecting the Estimate
2. Managing to Due Dates verses Estimated Duration (Student Syndrome)
3. Starting Tasks Earlier than Necessary
4. Managing of Key Resources (Constraint Management)
5. Multitasking Resources
Although supportive of generally accepted management practices the five negative behaviors can lead to a projects failure.
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Behavior 1:Protecting the Estimate
Definition: Consciously or unconsciously adding
a safety margin to ensure that a project or task
can be completed on time.
Assumption: This margin will be added to provide 90+ percent probability of accurate estimation.
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Correcting Behaviors 1:Protecting the Estimate
CCPM advocates:
1. Reduce the estimate to a 50% Probability
2. Add 25% of original estimate to buffer
3. Track extra time (positive & negative) in buffer
Assumption: Negative and positive gains in time balance each other out and the project finishes earlier than the original estimate.
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Correcting Behaviors 1: Protecting the Estimate
Reduce Protecting the Estimate risks by:
1. ID’ing the risks driving the size of the contingency
• Review project planning documents
• Discuss the estimate with the estimator
2. Quantify the risks behind the contingency
3. Develop a risk response plan
4. Control and monitor the risks
Goal: Reduce the management reserve or contingency to match the level of risk!
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Results: Protecting the Estimate
Countering Protecting the Estimate reduces
risk in non-CCPM projects because:
• Unknown-unknowns reduced
• Risks are openly addressed
• Stakeholders can have more confidence in management reserve or project buffers are appropriate for the task or project.
• Project buffers are equal to their risk
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Behavior 2:Student Syndrome
CCPM also calls this the “Student Syndrome”
Definition: Failure to focus 100% on a task at
the start since the due date is in the future.
• People tend to focus on the due dates of tasks, not the amount of effort it will take to complete the task.
• Project participants don’t become 100% focuses until the due date is close.
• The safety margin is consumed early on due to the lack of focus, not the risk events for which it is intend.
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Correcting Behaviors 2:Student Syndrome
Units of time should be identified to fit goals. Goals should not be fit into units of time.
CCPM advocates focusing on task estimates rather than deadlines:
• Give team members only the work effort estimates, not the due dates
• Allow only enough time to complete the task
• Capture both late tasks and early completions in buffers
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Correcting Behaviors 2:Student Syndrome
To implement the CCPM theory, managers need to change their behavior by focusing on:
• Work estimates (days or hours), not due dates
• How much effort is required to complete the task, not how much has been completed
• Giving positive or acceptable reactions to missed estimates (assuming 50% probability)
Management must change their own expectations to encourage a change in their team’s behavior.
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Correcting Behaviors 2:Student Syndrome
Corresponding to management efforts, team members must be willing to change their work habits by:
• Working to achieve tasks on time with 50% probability
• Achieving and reporting early completions
Without supportive team behavior, CCPM theory cannot be executed.
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Results:Student Syndrome
Creating the correct management and teambehaviors will improve the project enhanced by:
• Enhancing the accuracy of estimates
• Identifying issues and missing information early
• Providing the opportunity to proactively deal with the unexpected
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Behavior 3:Starting Tasks Too Early
Definition: Tasks are started as early as possible,
which is often before all the necessary information
is known.
Don’t “jump the gun.”
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Correcting Behavior 3:Starting Tasks Too Early
CCPM advocates starting as late as possible to
prevent:
• Tasks expanding to fill the time allotted
• Rework
Starting too soon leads to rework because:
• A task is begun with incomplete knowledge
• Scope changes
CCPM does not advocate delay for the sake of delay, but rather delay to begin with clearer information and more confidence.
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Correcting Behavior 3:Starting Tasks Too Early
Delaying a task until of the latest possible start
date affects Risk Management in two ways:
1. Improves the ability to determine buffer sizes’ based on:
• Tasks Risk
• Project Risk
2. Establishes expectations for the timeframe of future tasks.
“To begin by bluster, but afterwards to take fright…shows a supreme lack of intelligence” Sun Tsu, The Art of War
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Results:Starting Tasks Too Early
Delaying a start date to further clarify a project
provides:
• Significant savings, for even a few tasks
• Disincentive for work to expand to fill the time
• More flexibility for key resources
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Behavior 4:Management of Key Resources
Definition: Key Resources are the constrained
resources on the project.
Key Resources may be:
• Physical resource such as tool or machinery
• A human resource such as an individual with a unique skills
A process is not a key resource.
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Correcting Behaviors 4:Management of Key Resources
CCPM manages key resources by ensuring that:
• Tasks – Constrained resources perform only those tasks that they alone can uniquely fulfill.
• Workload – Excess work is not built up waiting for the constrained resource.
• Timing – Buffers are used to ensure that the work is ready for the resource and that the resource is ready for the work.
Constrained resources should perform only those tasks which can not be performed by other (unconstrained) resources.
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Correcting Behaviors 4:Management of Key Resources
Evaluate the allocation of key resources on:
• Tasks – Can alternative resources be applied or can the tasks be completed in another order?
• Workload – Is the volume of work within the capabilities of the key resource?
• Timing – Is the resource available when needed?
• Is the work ready for the resource?
• Can buffers or float be used to create the appropriate timing?
Incorporated management of key resources into the project schedule.
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Results:Management of Key Resources
Identifying the key resources and managing
them effectively enables:
• Project planning around tasks and resources as opposed to just deadlines and deliverables
• Proactive coordination of the constrained resource
• Tighter management of schedule variance (and use of buffers)
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Behavior 5:Multitasking
Definition: Assigning one person to work on two
or more tasks concurrently.
Multitasking may come from:
• Within the project
• Outside of the project
Few people can apply themselves to multiple concurrent tasks well. More often, all tasks will suffer.
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Correcting Behavior 5:Multitasking
CCPM corrects multitasking by:
• Forbidding constrained resources from multitasking
Eliminate multitasking by not allowing it to be scheduled from the start.
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Correcting Behavior 5:Multitasking
The Project Manager can:
• Control inside the project
• By rescheduling one or more of the tasks
• By adding other resources
• Influence outside the project
• By escalating a resource conflict
• By creative resource negotiation
Project management’s role is to facilitate the team’s accomplish-ment of the goal and keep them focused on the task at hand.
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Results 5:Multitasking
The elimination of multitasking:
• Keeps people focused on their immediate tasks
• Resolves conflicts between priorities
• Keeps people focused on the most critical tasks for the project
• Allows progress to be more accurately measured
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Summary
Correcting the Five Common Negative Behaviors in a
traditional project management environment:
• Assumes solid project planning, scheduling and risk management
• Requires changes in both management and team interaction
• Permits individual, grouped or all behaviors being implemented
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Summary
Recommendations on Implementing These Behavior Changes:
• Key resource management and multitasking hold lowest implementation risk for most organizations
• Estimate protection, managing to effort, and starting tasks later is dependant on other implementation activities and team behavior changes
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Questions
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Contact Information
For more information, the I can be contacted at:
Craig Peterson, PMP
Multi-Discipline System Engineer
The MITRE Corporation
(703) 883-6573
