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Page 1: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

Actions Needed To ProtectActions Needed To ProtectThe Water Resources The Water Resources

of the of the Delaware River BasinDelaware River Basin

Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhDJessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD

River Basin PlannerRiver Basin Planner

Delaware River Basin CommissionDelaware River Basin Commission

Carol R. Collier, PP, AICPCarol R. Collier, PP, AICP

Executive DirectorExecutive Director

Delaware River Basin CommissionDelaware River Basin Commission

Page 2: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTSCLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

ExtremeExtreme water resource water resource managementmanagement

Page 3: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Delaware RiverDelaware River Watershed Facts Watershed Facts

Basin + Bay =13,539 miBasin + Bay =13,539 mi²² 12,757 mi12,757 mi² ² DrainageDrainage

(~ 0.4 of 1% of the continental US) (~ 0.4 of 1% of the continental US) 330 miles: Longest undammed 330 miles: Longest undammed

river east of the Mississippiriver east of the Mississippi ~ 50% basin land is in PA~ 50% basin land is in PA Over Over 15 million15 million people rely on people rely on

the waters of the basin the waters of the basin

(~ 5% of the US population) (~ 5% of the US population)

Page 4: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

or +6 inches per year since 2004

on average

In last 6 years, cumulative departure from “normal” >40inches

Page 5: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Drought of the 1960’sDrought of the 1960’s

Page 6: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Cannonsville Reservoir December 2001

DROUGHT: Extreme Water Supply Planning

Page 7: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Serial Flooding: Extreme Flood Mitigation

3 record-breaking floods in 22 months:

•Sept 2004

•April 2005

•June 2006

Page 8: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

DRY WET

Variability within ExtremesVariability within Extremes

Page 9: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Rutgers – Office of NJ State Climatologist…and Changing Averages

Page 10: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Flow Target @Trenton= 3000 cfs

Philadelphia Intake

Salt Line Range

19641964

20022002

Prepared by Philadelphia Water Dept

Page 11: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Critical Water Critical Water Supply AreasSupply Areas

2 critical ground water areas

Special withdrawal limits/ review thresholds

Emphasis on conjunctive use - surface water alternative is crucial

Page 12: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Montague

Trenton

Operating PlansOperating Plans NYC Delaware Basin NYC Delaware Basin

Reservoirs drive the Basin-Reservoirs drive the Basin-wide Operating Planwide Operating Plan

DRBC storage in 2 Army DRBC storage in 2 Army Corps reservoirs drive Lower Corps reservoirs drive Lower Basin Operating PlanBasin Operating Plan

BeltzvilleBeltzville Blue MarshBlue Marsh

Merrell Creek ReservoirMerrell Creek Reservoir

DRBC Drought DRBC Drought Emergency Actions Emergency Actions can mobilize can mobilize additional 69 BG for additional 69 BG for flow augmentationflow augmentation

Page 13: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

ExtremeExtreme issuesissues

Is there sufficient storage to meet increases Is there sufficient storage to meet increases in demand…under a prolonged drought?in demand…under a prolonged drought?

Is 3000 cfs target sufficient to support Is 3000 cfs target sufficient to support oysters, repel salt front and keep intakes oysters, repel salt front and keep intakes safe?safe?

Is 69 BG of emergency storage enough to Is 69 BG of emergency storage enough to meet flow needs…in the next drought meet flow needs…in the next drought emergency?emergency?

What more does climate change add to the What more does climate change add to the stressors in our management scenarios?stressors in our management scenarios?

Page 14: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Assumptions for Future Assumptions for Future ScenariosScenarios

Increasing Temperatures: > 2- 4Increasing Temperatures: > 2- 4o o CC Equal or Increased Precipitation: > 7 – 9%Equal or Increased Precipitation: > 7 – 9% Greater Greater IntensityIntensity of Storms of Storms More Precip. in Winter MonthsMore Precip. in Winter Months Warmer Summers (Higher Demand & ET)Warmer Summers (Higher Demand & ET) Working at the ExtremesWorking at the Extremes

Floods and DroughtsFloods and Droughts Increase in Sea Level RiseIncrease in Sea Level Rise

Inundation (height + tidal range change)Inundation (height + tidal range change) Storm SurgeStorm Surge Salinity IncreasesSalinity Increases

Page 15: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Changes in Snowpack and SnowmeltChanges in Snowpack and Snowmelt Less snow in the winter - affects water supply for many who depend Less snow in the winter - affects water supply for many who depend

on the melting of snowpack as a water source.on the melting of snowpack as a water source. Timing of snowmelt - earlier snowmelt may require changes to how Timing of snowmelt - earlier snowmelt may require changes to how

water supply reservoirs are managed.water supply reservoirs are managed.

Page 16: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Sea Level Rise

Global Sea Level RiseRegional Changes gravity, ocean currents and ocean density subsidence

Model0.5 meter rise1.0 meter rise1.5 meter rise

Global + Regional0.45 + 0.27 = 0.72m

(2.3 ft)

1.4 + 0.27 = 1.67m(5.5. ft)

Page 17: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

SLR: Northeast US Regional Changes SLR: Northeast US Regional Changes In the Northeast US In the Northeast US sea level is rising sea level is rising much faster than the much faster than the global average, most global average, most likely due to local land likely due to local land subsidence.subsidence.

Inferred subsidence Inferred subsidence rates are -0.6 to 2.7 rates are -0.6 to 2.7 mm yrmm yr-1-1..

Over the 21Over the 21stst Century, Century, this is an additional this is an additional sea-level rise of -6 to sea-level rise of -6 to 27 cm.27 cm.

Northeast US Sea level trends, 1950-1999(mm/yr)

0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00

Eastport, ME

Bar Harbor, ME

Portland, ME

Boston, MA

Woods Hole, MA

Newport, RI

Providence, RI

New London, CT

Montauk, NY

Willets Point, NY

The Battery, NY

Sandy Hook, NJ

Atlantic City, NJ

Philadelphia, PA

Lewes, DE

Baltimore, MD

Annapolis, MD

Solomons Island, MD

Washington, DC

Gloucester Point, VA

Sewells Point, VA

Global average

Sources: Zervas (2001), Church et al. (2004)Source – Ray Najjar

Page 18: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Potential Impacts to Water Potential Impacts to Water Supply and InfrastructureSupply and Infrastructure

Prolonged Droughts – Storage?Prolonged Droughts – Storage? More ET - Increased Irrigation?More ET - Increased Irrigation? Stormwater system re-vamps? Stormwater system re-vamps? Sea Level Rise - Salinity Pushing InlandSea Level Rise - Salinity Pushing Inland Infrastructure placement - Water Lines, Infrastructure placement - Water Lines,

Sewer Lines, Wastewater Treatment Sewer Lines, Wastewater Treatment Loss Of Snow PackLoss Of Snow Pack

Page 19: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Water Intakes at Risk from Drought and Sea Level Rise:location of the salt line at high tide during drought

Power• Exelon Delaware

Generating Station• Exelon Richmond

Generating Station• Philadelphia Gas

Works Richmond

Industrial• Koch Material Co.• NGC Industries• Rohm and Haas

Philadelphia• MacAndrew and

Forbes Co.• Pennwalt

Corporation• Sunoco

Public Supply• Torresdale Water

Intake (provides • almost 60% of

Philadelphia’s water supply)

• New Jersey American Water Co. Tri-County Water Treatment Plant

Page 20: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Special Protection Special Protection Waters Waters

Antidegradation program in place to protect the existing high quality waters in the non-tidal River and headwaters…but

Page 21: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

the most sensitive areas of the most sensitive areas of a watersheda watershed

Existing contiguous forest is Existing contiguous forest is critical to water quantity and critical to water quantity and qualityquality

Multiple stressors Multiple stressors Increasing development Increasing development

& impervious cover & impervious cover Road cuts, pipeline Road cuts, pipeline

connections,connections, Forest FragmentationForest Fragmentation

Philadelphia Source Water Philadelphia Source Water Protection Analysis Protection Analysis #1 threat:#1 threat: Change in Change in

Delaware River Delaware River HeadwatersHeadwaters

Vulnerability of Headwaters

15 M

illion

Peo

ple +

Page 22: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

““Adaptation to climate Adaptation to climate change is now inevitable… change is now inevitable… The only question is will it The only question is will it be by plan or by chaos?”be by plan or by chaos?”

Roger Jones, CSIRO, Australia; Co-author of Roger Jones, CSIRO, Australia; Co-author of IPCCIPCC

Page 23: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Time to Plan & Take ActionTime to Plan & Take Action

Partnerships, multiple agencies and Partnerships, multiple agencies and stakeholdersstakeholders

Holistic Analysis – Holistic Analysis – Geography – basinwideGeography – basinwide Water quality, quantity, biological/habitat, Water quality, quantity, biological/habitat,

human needshuman needs Informed decision makers – risks and Informed decision makers – risks and

optionsoptions

Page 24: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Develop Informed OptionsDevelop Informed Options Sophisticated models & scenario testingSophisticated models & scenario testing

Test drought mitigation plans: drought and flood (of Test drought mitigation plans: drought and flood (of Record ?)Record ?)

Evaluate effects of reservoir ops on downstream floodingEvaluate effects of reservoir ops on downstream flooding

Evaluate effect of land use change on stream flowsEvaluate effect of land use change on stream flows

Analysis / Options based on Potential RiskAnalysis / Options based on Potential Risk What infrastructure is at risk? What infrastructure is at risk?

Relative costs/benefits/potential of adapting in place vs. Relative costs/benefits/potential of adapting in place vs. moving. moving.

Page 25: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Develop Informed OptionsDevelop Informed Options

Overlay Climate Change on other water resource Overlay Climate Change on other water resource stressorsstressors

Increasing demand – potable supply, power generation, Increasing demand – potable supply, power generation, irrigationirrigation

Land use change: increased impervious cover, loss of Land use change: increased impervious cover, loss of forests,etc.forests,etc.

Evaluate Adaptation OptionsEvaluate Adaptation Options Reduce Demand - Water Conservation - System EfficiencyReduce Demand - Water Conservation - System Efficiency Better Stormwater ManagementBetter Stormwater Management Need for Increased Upstream Storage (?)Need for Increased Upstream Storage (?) Flood Mitigation – move or protect?Flood Mitigation – move or protect?

Page 26: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Time for Action !Time for Action !

Page 27: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Thank you.Thank you.

Page 28: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

New / Modified Storage & Infrastructure

Water storage / flood mitigation / Interconnections

Instream Flow Needs (ecological / salinity)

Flood Vulnerability

Drought Vulnerability

2030 Withdrawal Demand

Water Availability

GOAL: Determine basin-wide concerns, identify location and magnitude of deficits for vulnerable watersheds and river points

ASSESSMENT

STRATEGIES

Reduction of Demand by Conservation MeasuresConservation pricing, drip irrigation, residential irrigation alternatives,

water loss control, plumbing requirements, water reuse, education, etc.

Increasing Instream Flow / Mitigating Flood Loss Local solutions, LID, riverine buffers, protection of headwaters, stormwater infiltration, storage in old quarries/ mine rec., ASR

Page 29: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.
Page 30: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Extent of Marcellus Shale Formation within Extent of Marcellus Shale Formation within the Delaware River Basinthe Delaware River Basin

36% (4,937 mi2) of the Delaware Basin is underlain by the Marcellus Shale

Page 31: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Hydro-fracking Phase –(a week or two)

Injection pumps, supplies,and many frack tanks for fresh and flowback waters

Page 32: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Photos Courtesy NYC DEP

Page 33: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.
Page 34: CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS Actions Needed To Protect The Water Resources of the Delaware River Basin Jessica R. Sanchez, MCRP, PhD River Basin Planner Delaware.

Other Stressors in the BasinOther Stressors in the Basin

Increasing impervious surfacesIncreasing impervious surfaces Changing demographics/ water demand – Changing demographics/ water demand –

Population size and locationPopulation size and location Threats to the HeadwatersThreats to the Headwaters

Quantity and QualityQuantity and Quality


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