CAT : 30-Aug-08 Ben Brangwyn Transition Network Transition Town
Totnes Peak oil, climate change and transition
Slide 3
Agenda Peak Oil and its effects Peak Oil and its effects
Climate Change Climate Change PO + CC business as usual PO + CC
business as usual Responses at different levels Responses at
different levels global, national, local, personal What is a
transition town What is a transition town Examples and achievements
so far Examples and achievements so far Q&A discussion Q&A
discussion RESILIENCE RESILIENCE
Slide 4
Peak Oil well never run out of oil well never run out of oil
were running out of cheap, plentiful oil were running out of cheap,
plentiful oil oil underpins oil underpins industrial development
agriculture economics population about way through it about way
through it its going to decline its going to decline
Slide 5
Peak Oil a theory? 98 oil producers 98 oil producers
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Peak Oil a theory? Not a theory for these 64 post peak
producers Not a theory for these 64 post peak producers
Slide 7
Peak Oil discovery US discovery peaked in 1930s US discovery
peaked in 1930s production peaked in 1971 UK discovery peaked in
1975 UK discovery peaked in 1975 production peaked in 1999 world
discovery peaked in 1960s world discovery peaked in 1960s
production will peak in 20??
Slide 8
Peak Oil official numbers EIA - EIA - Energy Information
Administration IEA - International Energy Agency
Slide 9
Peak gas for UK Source National Grid Source National Grid
Slide 10
UK Govt assumptions re oil price (2008)
http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file46071.pdf Middle Scenario
High-High Scenario
Slide 11
Peak Oil vs Peak Exports Oil producers getting richer Oil
producers getting richer Developing their own economies Developing
their own economies Middle East growth: 5-6% pa Middle East growth:
5-6% pa Russia growth: 7% pa Russia growth: 7% pa Increasing their
domestic consumption of oil Increasing their domestic consumption
of oil fuelled by subsidised prices fuelled by subsidised prices
Less available for countries they export to. Like us Less available
for countries they export to. Like us
Slide 12
Peak Oil whats it like? terminal decline terminal decline
demand destruction demand destruction examples: examples: 1990s:
North Korea 1990s: Cuba 2000: UK fuel crisis Now: Poor
countries
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Climate Change the end of the debate Warming of the climate
system is unequivocal Warming of the climate system is unequivocal
Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures
since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence level
>90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas
concentrations Most of the observed increase in globally averaged
temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely (confidence
level >90%) due to the observed increase in human greenhouse gas
concentrations The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states: Upsala Glacier,
Argentina
Slide 14
Climate Change the start of the feedbacks
Slide 15
Peak Oil & Climate Change CLIMATE CHANGE (a la Stern et
al.) climate engineering climate engineering carbon capture and
storage carbon capture and storage tree-based carbon offsets
tree-based carbon offsets international emissions trading
international emissions trading climate adaptation climate
adaptation improved transportation logistics improved
transportation logistics nuclear power nuclear power PLANNED
RELOCALISATION local resilience carbon reduction consume closer to
home produce closer to home play closer to home decentralised
energy infrastructure the Great Reskilling localised food energy
descent plans local medicinal capacity local currencies PEAK OIL
PEAK OIL (a la Hirsch et al.) coal to liquids coal to liquids gas
to liquids gas to liquids relaxed drilling regulations relaxed
drilling regulations massively scaled biofuels massively scaled
biofuels tar sands and non- conventional oils tar sands and non-
conventional oils resource nationalism and stockpiling resource
nationalism and stockpiling
Slide 16
What can be done? Global Global Oil Depletion Protocol
Contraction and Convergence Kyoto National National TEQs, Cap &
Share (energy rationing) Community Community Transition Towns,
cities, villages, rural Personal Personal The work that reconnects
self directed re-education getting Gaiaed
Slide 17
Peak oil, climate change, food and the Scottish parliament
Unanimously passed motion Unanimously passed motion Parliament
expresses its concern at the potential for global food shortages;
food price inflation now exceeding 6%; calls on the Scottish
Government, Her Majestys Government, the European Union and other
relevant bodies to seek solutions that take account of the growing
pressures on agriculture from both climate change and the rush to
biofuels as well as the peak in oil production ensuring the
long-term capacity and capability of our food supply; encourage the
development of local supply chains through public procurement,
address the imbalance in power between the big supermarkets and our
food producers.... (June 2008) Parliament expresses its concern at
the potential for global food shortages; food price inflation now
exceeding 6%; calls on the Scottish Government, Her Majestys
Government, the European Union and other relevant bodies to seek
solutions that take account of the growing pressures on agriculture
from both climate change and the rush to biofuels as well as the
peak in oil production ensuring the long-term capacity and
capability of our food supply; encourage the development of local
supply chains through public procurement, address the imbalance in
power between the big supermarkets and our food producers.... (June
2008)
Slide 18
Transition, Peak oil, climate change, and Somerset CC 1.
acknowledges the work done by communities in Somerset on Transition
Towns and that the independence of the Transition Movement is key
to its grass roots appeal. 2. fully endorses the Transition Town
Movement and subscribes to the principles and ethos of the
organisation's goals to reduce dependence on fuel oil and create
more sustainable communities. 3. commits to providing support and
assistance to all towns in Somerset that wish to join this
initiative to help them achieve the goals they set for themselves
as local communities. 4. therefore, requests the Scrutiny and
Executive Committees to consider through the council's strategic
planning process; allocating funds to assist in achieving the
outcomes of the Transition Towns requiring all directorates to
support Transition Initiatives 5. seeks to become the first
Transition Authority in the UK. 6. agrees to undertake a review of
its budgets and services to reduce dependence on fuel oil and
produce an energy descent action plan in line with the principles
of the Transition Initiative. (July 2008)
Slide 19
Can we respond? Going up the energy slope, we used Going up the
energy slope, we used ingenuity creativity adaptability cooperation
Going back down if were early enough if were cooperative the future
could be a whole lot better
Slide 20
Whats stopping us? (1) Dominant myths of today Dominant myths
of today Things are getting better Economic growth is good We must
keep shopping Technology will solve all our problems There is no
alternative You cant stop progress Living standards are rising
Humans are selfish and greedy by nature The market will solve it
Were all doomed
Slide 21
Where are we going? Industrial Ascent Energy useEnergy use
Resource useResource use Environmental degradationEnvironmental
degradation PollutionPollution Peak Energy? Techno-Fantasy
Green-Tech Stability Earth stewardship Post Mad Max Collapse Great
Grand Children Agriculture 10.000yrs BP Industrial Revolution Baby
Boom Pre-industrial culture Historical Time Future Time Creative
Descent (Permaculture)
Slide 22
Changing the myth from
Slide 23
Changing the myth to
Slide 24
Whats stopping us? (2) Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad
experiment) Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment) Short
term vs long term thinking Short term vs long term thinking
rational vs emotional, neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilian Belief
in authority figures Belief in authority figures electrocution
experiment - 65% gave lethal dose obedient children survive Sunk
cost, or investment in the present Sunk cost, or investment in the
present its difficult convincing a person of something when his job
depends on him not believing it Optimism Optimism an optimistic
outlook is neurochemically self-fulfilling
Slide 25
Whos doing creative, orderly energy descent? (1) Totnes Totnes
Penwith (Cornwall) Penwith (Cornwall) Kinsale Kinsale Ivybridge
Ivybridge Falmouth Falmouth Moretonhampstead Moretonhampstead Lewes
Lewes Stroud Stroud Ashburton Ashburton Ottery St Mary Ottery St
Mary Bristol Bristol Brixton Brixton Forest Row Forest Row Mayfield
Mayfield Glastonbury Glastonbury Forest of Dean Forest of Dean
Lostwithiel Lostwithiel Nottingham Nottingham Wrington Wrington
Brighton&Hove Brighton&Hove Portobello (Edinburgh)
Portobello (Edinburgh) Market Harborough Market Harborough Sunshine
Coast, Oz Sunshine Coast, Oz West Kirby West Kirby Llandeilo
Llandeilo Bro Ddyfi Bro Ddyfi Whitstable Whitstable
Marsden&Slaithwaite Marsden&Slaithwaite Official Transition
Initiatives
Slide 26
Whos doing creative, orderly energy descent? (2) Official
Transition Initiatives Frome Frome Brampton Brampton Isle of Wight
Isle of Wight Waiheke Island (NZ) Waiheke Island (NZ) Orewa (NZ)
Orewa (NZ) Dunbar Dunbar Rhayader Rhayader Seaton Seaton Bath Bath
Exeter Exeter Isle of Man Isle of Man Canterbury Canterbury Kapiti
(NZ) Kapiti (NZ) Biggar Biggar Presteigne Presteigne Wolverton
Wolverton Leicester Leicester Holywood Holywood Westcliffe-on-Sea
Westcliffe-on-Sea Isle of Scilly Isle of Scilly Liverpool South
Liverpool South Norwich Norwich Tring Tring Crediton Crediton
Boulder, CO (USA) Boulder, CO (USA) Howe Howe Lampeter Lampeter
South Pemberton South Pemberton
Slide 27
And whos mulling it over? UK UK Ireland Ireland USA USA Spain
Spain Italy Italy New Zealand New Zealand Australia Australia
France France Israel Israel Canada Canada Mexico Mexico Norway
Norway South Africa South Africa Sweden Sweden 700+ mullers Uruguay
Uruguay Argentina Argentina Belgium Belgium Chile Chile Czech
Republic Czech Republic Netherlands Netherlands Switzerland
Switzerland Brazil Brazil China China Japan Japan Poland
Poland
Slide 28
How are they organising? Transition Model Understanding:
Understanding: PO + CC business as usual PO + CC business as usual
Adaptability, creative Adaptability, creative NOW NOW 7 Buts 7 Buts
12 Steps 12 Steps Transition Network Transition Network
Slide 29
Transition Model 7 buts (1) 1)we dont have funding 2)they wont
let us no enemies apparently 3)turf wars with other green
groups
Slide 30
Transition Model 7 buts (2) 4)no one cares about the
environment 5)its too late anyway 6)I dont have the right
qualifications 7)I dont have the energy to be doing that
Slide 31
Transition Model - Step 1 Set Up a Steering Group and Design
Its Demise from the Outset Set Up a Steering Group and Design Its
Demise from the Outset atrophy personal agendas humility stages 2-5
reforms from subgroups
Slide 32
Transition Model - Step 2 Awareness raising Awareness raising
allies and networks prepare community movies talks events
Slide 33
Transition Model - Step 3 Lay the foundations Lay the
foundations other groups existing projects official bodies
businesses collaboration
Slide 34
Transition Model - Step 4 Organise a Great Unleashing Organise
a Great Unleashing coming of age powerful, passionate, informative,
inspirational timing content making connections
Slide 35
Transition Model - Step 5 Form working groups Form working
groups starting new groups bringing in existing groups guidelines
training working groups and the steering group
Slide 36
Transition Model - Step 6 Use Open Space Use Open Space
shouldnt work! one long coffee break World Caf Harrison Owen - Open
Space Technology: A Users Guide Harrison Owen - Open Space
Technology: A Users Guide Peggy Holman and Tom Devane - The Change
Handbook: Group Methods for Shaping the Future Peggy Holman and Tom
Devane - The Change Handbook: Group Methods for Shaping the
Future
Slide 37
Transition Model - Step 7 Develop visible practical
manifestations of your project Develop visible practical
manifestations of your project not a talking shop chose carefully
lure in fence-sitters team building potential getting dirt under
your fingernails
Slide 38
Transition Model - Step 8 Facilitate the Great Reskilling
Facilitate the Great Reskilling Grandma, what was it like when you
were a kid? repairing, cooking, fixing bikes, natural building,
loft insulation, dyeing, herbal walks, gardening, basic home energy
efficiency, making sour doughs, practical food growing (the list is
endless) eg WWOOFing
Slide 39
Transition Model - Step 9 Build bridges to Local Government
Build bridges to Local Government becomes crucial dont wait too
long open door Community Development Plan elections!
Slide 40
Transition Model - Step 10 Honour the Elders Honour the Elders
elders as a community resource 1930 to 1960 moving from oil
scarcity to abundance oral history community infrastructure not
about going backwards
Slide 41
Transition Model - Step 11 Let it go where it wants to go Let
it go where it wants to go focus on the questions unleash the
community any sense of control is illusory
Slide 42
Transition Model - Step 12 Produce and start to implement the
Energy Descent Action Plan Produce and start to implement the
Energy Descent Action Plan assess current situation create 15-20
year vision for all key areas integrate with community plan if
possible identify steps needed to get there start the work
Slide 43
What have they achieved so far? (1) Totnes 8 films, 11 talks, 7
events 8 films, 11 talks, 7 events 10-week skilling up for
powerdown course 10-week skilling up for powerdown course seed
sharing days seed sharing days oil vulnerability auditing oil
vulnerability auditing Estates in Transition Estates in Transition
local food directory local food directory local currency (phase 2)
local currency (phase 2) oral history archives oral history
archives nut tree capital of Britain nut tree capital of Britain
transition stories transition stories lobbying (food and
sustainable building regs) lobbying (food and sustainable building
regs) community plan engagement community plan engagement Totnes
Renewable Energy Company Totnes Renewable Energy Company Lewes
school workshops school workshops grow your own food courses grow
your own food courses rug making course rug making course mending
course mending course Lewes non-plastic bag Lewes non-plastic bag
library books on sustainability library books on sustainability
many events, talks and films many events, talks and filmsPenwith
many films and talks many films and talks food and farming day with
Soil Association food and farming day with Soil Association
reskilling composting toilets and reedbeds reskilling composting
toilets and reedbeds
Slide 44
What have they achieved so far? (2) Brixton green mapping /
urban agriculture project green mapping / urban agriculture project
permaculture design course permaculture design course films and
talks films and talks presenting to school boards on peak oil and
climate change presenting to school boards on peak oil and climate
change urban food growers network day urban food growers network
dayBristol many films, talks and events many films, talks and
events transition training 2-day course transition training 2-day
course city orchard (central buying of trees for productive
planting by individual homeowners city orchard (central buying of
trees for productive planting by individual homeowners guerilla
gardening guerilla gardening photo exhibition and competition of
living more, using less photo exhibition and competition of living
more, using less Stroud CSA, local food festival CSA, local food
festival tool share tool share textile courses, visits to hemp
manufacturers, fashion show textile courses, visits to hemp
manufacturers, fashion show planning Stroud Hemporium planning
Stroud Hemporium Heinberg meeting with council Heinberg meeting
with council Transition think tank with local council Transition
think tank with local council many events and talks many events and
talks
Slide 45
Our choice Well be transitioning to a lower energy future
whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than
getting engulfed by it. Well be transitioning to a lower energy
future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave
rather than getting engulfed by it.
Slide 46
Thank you Ben Brangwyn Transition Initiatives
Slide 47
Peak Oil official numbers
Slide 48
Oil substitutes A year of oil = ? A year of oil = ? Source the
Oil Drum Source the Oil Drum
Slide 49
Fossil Fuels, Carbon and Economic Growth
Slide 50
Transition Training Totnes: 18 to 19-Oct-07 Totnes: 18 to
19-Oct-07 17 people (Birmingham, Lostwithiel, Exeter) Bristol:
20-Nov-07 Bristol: 20-Nov-07 London: Dec-07 London: Dec-07
Scotland? Scotland? Wales? Wales? North North
Slide 51
Cuba and food A U.N. food expert hailed Cuba as a world model
in feeding its population, some 18 years after the collapse of the
Soviet Bloc ravaged the island's economy and sparked widespread
hunger. (Nov-07) A U.N. food expert hailed Cuba as a world model in
feeding its population, some 18 years after the collapse of the
Soviet Bloc ravaged the island's economy and sparked widespread
hunger. (Nov-07) Jean Ziegler, who has been the United Nations'
independent investigator on "the right to food" since 2000, spent
11 days in Cuba on a fact- finding mission
Slide 52
Peak Oil happening now (if youre poor) Asia Asia Nepal Pakistan
Bangladesh Sri Lanka Philippines China India Vietnam Africa Africa
Uganda Zimbabwe Ghana Nigeria Senegal Kenya Gambia Philippines
Americas Americas Argentina Nicaragua Chile Costa Rica Dominican
Republic Middle East Middle East Iraq Iran
Slide 53
Peak Oil happening now (if youre in Argentina) Argentina:
Argentina: worst energy shortage in nearly 20 years collapse of
both the power grid and the fuel supply system electricity supplies
have been severely curtailed, plunging entire districts into
darkness and causing the layoff of industrial workers shortages of
compressed natural gas, which powers many Argentine cars and 90% of
the capital's taxis, are common can no longer meet peak electricity
demand.
Slide 54
Climate Change weather extremes
Slide 55
Climate Change moral issue or personal interest? Some regions
will be more affected than others: Some regions will be more
affected than others: The Arctic (ice sheet loss, ecosystem
changes) Sub-Saharan Africa (water stress, reduced crops) Small
islands (coastal erosion, inundation) Asian mega-deltas (flooding
from sea and rivers) coastal aquifers will be contaminated by sea
water Some ecosystems are highly vulnerable: Some ecosystems are
highly vulnerable: Coral reefs, marine shell organisms Tundra,
boreal forests, mountain and Mediterranean regions 20-30% of plant
and animal species at risk of extinction Your town? Your town?
Slide 56
Peak Oil addicted society (3) growth economics growth economics
debt interest confidence no replacement for oil no replacement for
oil
Slide 57
Peak Oil whos peaked (1)? Top 20 - 85% of all oil extracted
worldwide PeakedNot yet peaked 57% of world27% of world Russia,
United States, Mexico, China, Norway, Canada, Venezuela, United
Kingdom, Iraq, Algeria, Libya, Indonesia, Oman Saudi Arabia,
Kuwait, Nigeria, Iran, United Arab Emirates, Brazil,
Kazakhstan
Peak Oil reserve growth OPEC in 1980s OPEC in 1980s quota
system Kuwait jumps others follow no change ever! no change ever!
Kuwait back- tracking in 2007 Kuwait back- tracking in 2007 EIA
report Nov-08 EIA report Nov-08
Slide 60
Peak Oil & Gas ASPO estimates Regular Regular peaked in
2005 Heavy oil, deepwater, polar and natural gas liquids Heavy oil,
deepwater, polar and natural gas liquids estimate peak around
2010
Slide 61
Peak or Plateau? Existing fields decline 4.5% = Peak in 2015
Existing fields decline 4.5% = Peak in 2015
Slide 62
Peak or Plateau? Existing fields technology enhanced decline of
2% Existing fields technology enhanced decline of 2% = Peak in
2018
Slide 63
Peak or Plateau? Existing fields - sharp decline of 8% =
Existing fields - sharp decline of 8% = Peak in 2010
