CAT : 30-Aug-08 Ben Brangwyn Transition Network Transition Town Totnes Peak oil, climate change and transition.

CAT : 30-Aug-08CAT : 30-Aug-08Ben BrangwynBen BrangwynTransition NetworkTransition NetworkTransition Town TotnesTransition Town Totnes

Peak oil, climate change Peak oil, climate change and transitionand transition

AgendaAgenda

Peak Oil and its effectsPeak Oil and its effects Climate ChangeClimate Change PO + CC ≠ “business as usual”PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” Responses at different levelsResponses at different levels

– global, national, local, personalglobal, national, local, personal What is a transition townWhat is a transition town Examples and achievements so farExamples and achievements so far Q&A discussionQ&A discussion RESILIENCERESILIENCE

Peak OilPeak Oil

we’ll never “run out” of oilwe’ll never “run out” of oil

we’re running out of we’re running out of

cheap, plentiful oilcheap, plentiful oil

oil underpinsoil underpins– industrial developmentindustrial development

– agricultureagriculture

– economicseconomics

– populationpopulation

about ½ way through it…about ½ way through it…

it’s going to declineit’s going to decline

Peak Oil – a theory?Peak Oil – a theory?

98 oil producers98 oil producers

Peak Oil – a theory?Peak Oil – a theory?

Not a theory for these 64 post peak producersNot a theory for these 64 post peak producers

Peak Oil – discoveryPeak Oil – discovery

US discovery peaked in 1930sUS discovery peaked in 1930s

– production peaked in 1971production peaked in 1971

UK discovery peaked in 1975UK discovery peaked in 1975

– production peaked in 1999production peaked in 1999

world discovery peaked in 1960sworld discovery peaked in 1960s

– production will peak in 20??production will peak in 20??

Peak Oil – official numbersPeak Oil – official numbers

EIA - EIA - Energy Information Administration

IEA - International Energy Agency

Peak gas for UKPeak gas for UK

Source – National GridSource – National Grid

UK Gov’t assumptions re oil UK Gov’t assumptions re oil price (2008)price (2008)

http://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file46071.pdfhttp://www.berr.gov.uk/files/file46071.pdf

““Middle” Middle”

ScenarioScenario““High-High” High-High”

ScenarioScenario

Peak Oil vs Peak ExportsPeak Oil vs Peak Exports

Oil producers getting richerOil producers getting richer

Developing their own economiesDeveloping their own economies Middle East growth: 5-6% paMiddle East growth: 5-6% pa

Russia growth: 7% paRussia growth: 7% pa

Increasing their domestic Increasing their domestic

consumption of oilconsumption of oil fuelled by subsidised pricesfuelled by subsidised prices

Less available for countriesLess available for countries

they export to. Like us …they export to. Like us …

Peak Oil – what’s it like?Peak Oil – what’s it like?

terminal declineterminal decline

demand destructiondemand destruction

examples: examples:

– 1990s: North Korea1990s: North Korea

– 1990s: Cuba1990s: Cuba

– 2000: UK fuel crisis2000: UK fuel crisis

– Now: Poor countriesNow: Poor countries

Climate Change – the end of Climate Change – the end of the debatethe debate

Warming of the climate Warming of the climate system is unequivocalsystem is unequivocal

Most of the observed Most of the observed increase in globally increase in globally averaged temperatures averaged temperatures since the mid-20th since the mid-20th century is very likely century is very likely (confidence level >90%) (confidence level >90%) due to the observed due to the observed increase in human increase in human greenhouse gas greenhouse gas concentrationsconcentrations

The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:The 4th IPCC report, 2007 states:

Upsala Glacier, ArgentinaUpsala Glacier, Argentina

Climate Change – the start Climate Change – the start of the feedbacks…of the feedbacks…

Peak Oil & Climate ChangePeak Oil & Climate Change

CLIMATE CHANGECLIMATE CHANGE(a la Stern et al.)(a la Stern et al.) climate engineeringclimate engineering carbon capture and carbon capture and

storagestorage tree-based carbon tree-based carbon

offsetsoffsets international international

emissions tradingemissions trading climate adaptationclimate adaptation improved improved

transportation transportation logisticslogistics

nuclear powernuclear power

PLANNED RELOCALISATION

local resilience carbon reduction consume closer to home produce closer to home play closer to home decentralised energy

infrastructure the Great Reskilling localised food energy descent plans local medicinal capacity local currencies

PEAK OILPEAK OIL(a la Hirsch et al.)(a la Hirsch et al.) coal to liquidscoal to liquids gas to liquidsgas to liquids relaxed drilling relaxed drilling

regulationsregulations massively scaled massively scaled

biofuelsbiofuels tar sands and non-tar sands and non-

conventional oilsconventional oils resource resource

nationalism and nationalism and stockpilingstockpiling

What can be done?What can be done?

GlobalGlobal– Oil Depletion ProtocolOil Depletion Protocol– Contraction and ConvergenceContraction and Convergence– KyotoKyoto

NationalNational– TEQs, Cap & Share (energy rationing)TEQs, Cap & Share (energy rationing)

CommunityCommunity– Transition Towns, cities, villages, ruralTransition Towns, cities, villages, rural

PersonalPersonal– ““The work that reconnects”The work that reconnects”– self directed re-educationself directed re-education– getting Gaia’edgetting Gaia’ed

Peak oil, climate change, food Peak oil, climate change, food and the Scottish parliamentand the Scottish parliament Unanimously passed motionUnanimously passed motion

“…“…Parliament expresses its concern at the potential for Parliament expresses its concern at the potential for

global food shortages; … food price inflation now global food shortages; … food price inflation now

exceeding 6%; calls on the Scottish Government, Her exceeding 6%; calls on the Scottish Government, Her

Majesty’s Government, the European Union and other Majesty’s Government, the European Union and other

relevant bodies to … relevant bodies to … seek solutionsseek solutions that take account of that take account of

the growing pressures on agriculture from the growing pressures on agriculture from both climate both climate

changechange and the rush to biofuels and the rush to biofuels as well as the peak in as well as the peak in

oil productionoil production … ensuring the … ensuring the long-term capacity and long-term capacity and

capability of our food supplycapability of our food supply; … encourage the ; … encourage the

development of development of local supply chainslocal supply chains through public through public

procurement, address the imbalance in power between the procurement, address the imbalance in power between the

big supermarkets and our food producers....” (June 2008)big supermarkets and our food producers....” (June 2008)

Transition, Peak oil, climate Transition, Peak oil, climate change, and Somerset CCchange, and Somerset CC

1.1. acknowledges the work done by communities in Somerset on acknowledges the work done by communities in Somerset on Transition Towns and that the independence of the Transition Transition Towns and that the independence of the Transition Movement is key to its grass roots appeal.Movement is key to its grass roots appeal.

2.2. fully endorses the Transition Town Movement and subscribes to the fully endorses the Transition Town Movement and subscribes to the principles and ethos of the organisation's goals to reduce dependence principles and ethos of the organisation's goals to reduce dependence on fuel oil and create more sustainable communities.on fuel oil and create more sustainable communities.

3.3. commits to providing support and assistance to all towns in Somerset commits to providing support and assistance to all towns in Somerset that wish to join this initiative to help them achieve the goals they set that wish to join this initiative to help them achieve the goals they set for themselves as local communities.for themselves as local communities.

4.4. therefore, requests the Scrutiny and Executive Committees to consider therefore, requests the Scrutiny and Executive Committees to consider through the council's strategic planning process; through the council's strategic planning process; – allocating funds to assist in achieving the outcomes of the Transition Townsallocating funds to assist in achieving the outcomes of the Transition Towns– requiring all directorates to support Transition Initiativesrequiring all directorates to support Transition Initiatives

5.5. seeks to become the first Transition Authority in the UK.seeks to become the first Transition Authority in the UK.6.6. agrees to undertake a review of its budgets and services to reduce agrees to undertake a review of its budgets and services to reduce

dependence on fuel oil and produce an energy descent action plan in dependence on fuel oil and produce an energy descent action plan in line with the principles of the Transition Initiative. line with the principles of the Transition Initiative. (July 2008)(July 2008)

Can we respond?Can we respond?

Going up the energy slope, we usedGoing up the energy slope, we used– ingenuity– creativity– adaptability– cooperation

Going back down…– if we’re early enough– if we’re cooperative– the future could be a

whole lot better…

What’s stopping us? (1)What’s stopping us? (1)

Dominant myths of todayDominant myths of today– Things are getting betterThings are getting better– Economic growth is goodEconomic growth is good– We must keep shoppingWe must keep shopping– Technology will solve all our problemsTechnology will solve all our problems– There is no alternativeThere is no alternative– You can’t stop progressYou can’t stop progress– Living standards are risingLiving standards are rising– Humans are selfish and greedy by natureHumans are selfish and greedy by nature– The market will solve itThe market will solve it– We’re all doomed…We’re all doomed…

Where are we going? Where are we going?

Indu

stri

al A

scen

t

• Energy useEnergy use• Resource useResource use• Environmental degradationEnvironmental degradation• PollutionPollution

Peak Energy?

Techno-Fantasy

Green-Tech

StabilityGreen-Tech

Stability

Earth

stewardshipPost Mad Max Collapse

Great Grand Children

Agriculture10.000yrs BP

Industrial Revolution

Baby Boom

Pre-industrial culture

Historical Time

Future Time

Creative D

escent

(Perm

aculture)

Changing the myth from…Changing the myth from…

Changing the myth to…Changing the myth to…

What’s stopping us? (2)What’s stopping us? (2)

Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment)Cognitive Load Theory (fruit salad experiment) Short term vs long term thinkingShort term vs long term thinking

– rational vs emotional, neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilianrational vs emotional, neocortex vs mammalian vs reptilian

Belief in authority figuresBelief in authority figures– electrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal doseelectrocution experiment - 65% gave lethal dose– obedient children surviveobedient children survive

Sunk cost, or investment in the presentSunk cost, or investment in the present– ““it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job it’s difficult convincing a person of something when his job

depends on him not believing it”depends on him not believing it”

OptimismOptimism– an optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfillingan optimistic outlook is neurochemically self-fulfilling

Who’s doing creative, orderly Who’s doing creative, orderly energy descent? (1)energy descent? (1)

Totnes Totnes Penwith (Cornwall) Penwith (Cornwall) KinsaleKinsale IvybridgeIvybridge FalmouthFalmouth MoretonhampsteadMoretonhampstead Lewes Lewes Stroud Stroud AshburtonAshburton Ottery St MaryOttery St Mary Bristol Bristol BrixtonBrixton Forest RowForest Row MayfieldMayfield

GlastonburyGlastonbury Forest of DeanForest of Dean LostwithielLostwithiel NottinghamNottingham WringtonWrington Brighton&HoveBrighton&Hove Portobello (Edinburgh)Portobello (Edinburgh) Market HarboroughMarket Harborough Sunshine Coast, OzSunshine Coast, Oz West KirbyWest Kirby LlandeiloLlandeilo Bro DdyfiBro Ddyfi WhitstableWhitstable Marsden&SlaithwaiteMarsden&Slaithwaite

Official Transition InitiativesOfficial Transition Initiatives

Who’s doing creative, orderly Who’s doing creative, orderly energy descent? (2)energy descent? (2)

Official Transition InitiativesOfficial Transition Initiatives

FromeFrome BramptonBrampton Isle of WightIsle of Wight Waiheke Island (NZ)Waiheke Island (NZ) Orewa (NZ)Orewa (NZ) DunbarDunbar RhayaderRhayader SeatonSeaton BathBath ExeterExeter Isle of ManIsle of Man CanterburyCanterbury Kapiti (NZ)Kapiti (NZ) BiggarBiggar

PresteignePresteigne WolvertonWolverton LeicesterLeicester HolywoodHolywood Westcliffe-on-SeaWestcliffe-on-Sea Isle of ScillyIsle of Scilly Liverpool SouthLiverpool South NorwichNorwich TringTring CreditonCrediton Boulder, CO (USA)Boulder, CO (USA) HoweHowe LampeterLampeter South PembertonSouth Pemberton

And who’s mulling it over? And who’s mulling it over?

UKUK IrelandIreland USAUSA SpainSpain ItalyItaly New ZealandNew Zealand AustraliaAustralia FranceFrance IsraelIsrael CanadaCanada MexicoMexico NorwayNorway South AfricaSouth Africa SwedenSweden

700+ “mullers”700+ “mullers” UruguayUruguay ArgentinaArgentina BelgiumBelgium ChileChile Czech RepublicCzech Republic NetherlandsNetherlands SwitzerlandSwitzerland BrazilBrazil ChinaChina JapanJapan PolandPoland

How are they organising? How are they organising?

Transition ModelTransition Model Understanding:Understanding:

PO + CC ≠ “business as usual”PO + CC ≠ “business as usual” Adaptability, creativeAdaptability, creative NOWNOW

7 Buts7 Buts 12 Steps12 Steps Transition NetworkTransition Network

Transition Model – 7 “buts” (1)Transition Model – 7 “buts” (1)

1)1) we don’t have fundingwe don’t have funding

2)2) ““they” won’t let usthey” won’t let us

– no enemies… apparentlyno enemies… apparently

3)3) turf wars with other turf wars with other

green groupsgreen groups

Transition Model – 7 “buts” (2)Transition Model – 7 “buts” (2)

4)4) no one cares about the environmentno one cares about the environment

5)5) it’s too late anywayit’s too late anyway

6)6) I don’t have the right qualificationsI don’t have the right qualifications

7)7) I don’t have the energy to be doing I don’t have the energy to be doing thatthat

Transition Model - Step 1Transition Model - Step 1

Set Up a Steering Group Set Up a Steering Group and Design Its Demise from and Design Its Demise from the Outset the Outset – atrophyatrophy

– personal agendaspersonal agendas

– humilityhumility

– stages 2-5stages 2-5

– reforms from subgroupsreforms from subgroups


Awareness raising Awareness raising – allies and networksallies and networks

– prepare communityprepare community

– moviesmovies

– talkstalks

– eventsevents


Lay the foundations Lay the foundations – other groupsother groups

– existing projectsexisting projects

– official bodiesofficial bodies

– businessesbusinesses

– collaborationcollaboration


Organise a Great Unleashing Organise a Great Unleashing – coming of agecoming of age

– powerful, passionate, powerful, passionate, informative, inspirationalinformative, inspirational

– timingtiming

– contentcontent

– making connectionsmaking connections


Form “working groups” Form “working groups” – starting new groupsstarting new groups

– bringing in existing bringing in existing groupsgroups

– guidelinesguidelines

– trainingtraining

– working groups and the working groups and the steering groupsteering group


Use “Open Space” Use “Open Space” – shouldn’t work!shouldn’t work!

– one long coffee breakone long coffee break

– World CaféWorld Café Harrison Owen - Open Space Harrison Owen - Open Space

Technology: A User’s GuideTechnology: A User’s Guide Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’ - Peggy Holman and Tom Devane’ -

The Change Handbook: Group The Change Handbook: Group Methods for Shaping the FutureMethods for Shaping the Future


Develop visible practical Develop visible practical manifestations of your project manifestations of your project – not a talking shopnot a talking shop

– chose carefullychose carefully

– lure in fence-sitterslure in fence-sitters

– team building potentialteam building potential

– getting dirt under your getting dirt under your fingernailsfingernails


Facilitate the Great Reskilling Facilitate the Great Reskilling – Grandma, what was it like when you Grandma, what was it like when you

were a kid?were a kid?

– repairing, cooking, fixing bikes, repairing, cooking, fixing bikes, natural building, loft insulation, natural building, loft insulation, dyeing, herbal walks, gardening, dyeing, herbal walks, gardening, basic home energy efficiency, basic home energy efficiency, making sour doughs, practical food making sour doughs, practical food growing (the list is endless…)growing (the list is endless…)

– eg WWOOFingeg WWOOFing


Build bridges to Local Build bridges to Local Government Government – becomes crucialbecomes crucial

– don’t wait too long…don’t wait too long…

– open dooropen door

– Community Development Community Development PlanPlan

– elections…!elections…!


Honour the Elders Honour the Elders – elders as a community elders as a community

resourceresource

– 1930 to 1960 – moving from oil 1930 to 1960 – moving from oil scarcity to abundancescarcity to abundance

– oral historyoral history

– community infrastructurecommunity infrastructure

– not about going backwardsnot about going backwards


Let it go where it wants to Let it go where it wants to go… go… – focus on the questionsfocus on the questions

– unleash the communityunleash the community

– any sense of control is any sense of control is illusoryillusory


Produce and start to implement Produce and start to implement the Energy Descent Action the Energy Descent Action Plan Plan – assess current situationassess current situation

– create 15-20 year vision for all create 15-20 year vision for all key areaskey areas

– integrate with community plan if integrate with community plan if possiblepossible

– identify steps needed to get thereidentify steps needed to get there

– start the workstart the work

What have they achieved What have they achieved so far…? (1)so far…? (1)

TotnesTotnes 8 films, 11 talks, 7 events 8 films, 11 talks, 7 events 10-week “skilling up for powerdown” 10-week “skilling up for powerdown”

coursecourse seed sharing daysseed sharing days oil vulnerability auditingoil vulnerability auditing Estates in TransitionEstates in Transition local food directorylocal food directory local currency (phase 2)local currency (phase 2) oral history archivesoral history archives nut tree capital of Britainnut tree capital of Britain transition storiestransition stories lobbying (food and sustainable building lobbying (food and sustainable building

regs)regs) community plan engagementcommunity plan engagement Totnes Renewable Energy CompanyTotnes Renewable Energy Company

LewesLewes school workshopsschool workshops grow your own food coursesgrow your own food courses rug making courserug making course mending coursemending course Lewes non-plastic bagLewes non-plastic bag library books on sustainabilitylibrary books on sustainability many events, talks and filmsmany events, talks and films

PenwithPenwith many films and talksmany films and talks food and farming day with Soil food and farming day with Soil

AssociationAssociation reskilling – composting toilets reskilling – composting toilets

and reedbedsand reedbeds

What have they achieved What have they achieved so far…? (2)so far…? (2)

BrixtonBrixton greengreen mapping / urban agriculture projectmapping / urban agriculture project permaculture design coursepermaculture design course films and talksfilms and talks presenting to school boards on peak oil and presenting to school boards on peak oil and

climate changeclimate change urban food growers network dayurban food growers network day

BristolBristol many films, talks and eventsmany films, talks and events transition training 2-day coursetransition training 2-day course city orchard (central buying of trees for city orchard (central buying of trees for

productive planting by individual productive planting by individual homeownershomeowners

guerilla gardeningguerilla gardening photo exhibition and competition of “living photo exhibition and competition of “living

more, using less”more, using less”

StroudStroud CSA, local food festivalCSA, local food festival tool sharetool share textile courses, visits to hemp textile courses, visits to hemp

manufacturers, fashion showmanufacturers, fashion show planning Stroud Hemporiumplanning Stroud Hemporium Heinberg meeting with Heinberg meeting with

councilcouncil Transition “think tank” with Transition “think tank” with

local councillocal council many events and talksmany events and talks

Our choice…Our choice…

We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future We’ll be transitioning to a lower energy future whether we want to or not. Far better to ride whether we want to or not. Far better to ride that wave rather than getting engulfed by it. that wave rather than getting engulfed by it.

Thank youThank you

Ben BrangwynBen Brangwyn

Transition InitiativesTransition Initiatives

CAT : 30-Aug-08 Ben Brangwyn Transition Network Transition Town Totnes Peak oil, climate change and transition.

Documents

CAT : 30-Aug-08 Ben Brangwyn Transition Network Transition Town Totnes Peak oil, climate change and transition.