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India'sInitial National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

Government of India

2004

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India’s Initial National Communication to theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

© Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, 2004

Secretary, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India andChairman (National Steering Committee and Technical Advisory Committee)Paryavaran Bhawan, CGO ComplexLodi Road, New Delhi 110 003Phone: 91-11-24360721Fax: 91-11-24362746E-mail: [email protected]

National Project DirectorIndia’s Initial National Communication to the UNFCCCRoom No. 564, Paryavaran BhawanMinistry of Environment and ForestsCGO Complex, Lodi RoadNew Delhi 110 003Telefax: 91-11-24360861Email: [email protected]: www.natcomindia.org

Initial National Communication Project Management CellWinrock International India (Facilitating Agency)1, Navjeevan ViharNew Delhi 110 017Telefax: 91-11-26693876Email: [email protected]

[email protected]

ISBN 81 7371 498 3

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MINISTERENVIRONMENT & FORESTS

GOVERNMENT OF INDIANEW DELHI-110003

◊¥òÊˬÿʸfl⁄UáÊ ∞fl¢ flŸ÷Ê⁄Uà ‚⁄U∑§Ê⁄U

Ÿß¸ ÁŒÀ‹Ë-110003A. RAJA∞. ⁄UÊ¡Ê

(A. Raja)

Place: New Delhi

Dated: 16.06.2004

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Executive Summary

1. National Circumstances .................................................................................................... 1

2. GHG Inventory Information ............................................................................................. 29

3. Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation ....................................................................... 57

4. Research and Systematic Observations ......................................................................... 133

5. Education, Training and Public Awareness .................................................................... 159

6. Programmes Related to Sustainable Development ........................................................ 183

7. Constraints and Gaps, and Related Financial, Technical and Capacity Needs ........................ 203

References ...................................................................................................................................... 231

Annexures ...................................................................................................................................... 239

Implementation and Institutional Arrangements for the preparation of India’s InitialNational Communication

Abbreviations

Contributors to India’s Initial National Communication

Events for Education, Training and Public Awareness

Publications under the Aegis of India’s Initial National Communication

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Executive Summary

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India’s Initial National Communication

India is a Party to the United Nations FrameworkConvention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) andthe Government of India attaches great importance

to climate change issues. The Convention aims tostabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in theatmosphere at levels that would prevent dangerousanthropogenic interference with the climate system.Eradication of poverty, avoiding risks to foodproduction, and sustainable development are threeprinciples embedded in the Convention. Informationprovided in the Initial National Communication is interms of guidelines prescribed for Parties not includedin Annex I to the UNFCCC and the inventory isprepared for the base year 1994 as stipulated.

India is a vast country covering 3.28 million km2 with

diverse surface features. India occupies only 2.4 percent of the world’s geographical area, but supports16.2 per cent of the global human population. Indiais endowed with varied soils, climate, biodiversityand ecological regimes. Under such diverse naturalconditions, over a billion people speaking differentlanguages, following different religions and living inrural and urban areas, live in harmony under ademocratic system.

NATIONAL CIRCUMSTANCES

India’s land surface may be classified as (a) the GreatMountain Wall of the North; (b) the Northern Plains;(c) the Great Southern Peninsular Plateau; (d) theCoastal Plains; and (e) the Islands. India’s uniquegeography produces a spectrum of climates yieldinga wealth of biological and cultural diversity. Landareas in the north have a continental climate with highsummer temperatures with cold winters whentemperatures may go below freezing. In contrast arethe coastal regions of the country where thetemperature is more even throughout the year andrains are more frequent. There is large variation in

the amounts of rainfall received in different parts ofthe country. Average annual rainfall is less than 13 cmin the Thar desert, while at Cherrapunji in the North-East it is as high as 1080 cm. The different climateregimes of the country vary from humid in the North-East (about 180 days rainfall in a year) to arid inRajasthan (20 days rainfall in a year). A semi-arid beltin the peninsular region extends in the area betweenthe humid west coast and the central and eastern partsof the country. The most important feature of India’sclimate is the season of concentrated rain called the“monsoon”. The Southwest (SW) monsoon (May -September) is the most important feature of the Indianclimate.

India is a land with many rivers. The twelve majorrivers spread over a catchment area of 252.8 millionhectares (Mha) cover more than 75 per cent of thetotal area of the country. Rivers in India are classifiedas Himalayan, Peninsular, Coastal, and Inland-drainage basin rivers.

The land use pattern is influenced by diverse factorssuch as population density, urbanization, industry,agriculture, animal husbandry, irrigation demands,and natural calamities like floods and droughts.Despite stresses, the area under forests has increasedin recent years due to proactive reforestation andafforestation programmes of the Government of India.Presently 23 per cent of the total land area is underforest and tree cover, while 44 per cent is net sownarea. The remaining one-third is roughly equallydistributed between fallow land, non-agricultural land,and barren land.

The panorama of Indian forests ranges from evergreentropical rain forests in the Andaman and NicobarIslands, the Western Ghats, and the North-east, to dryalpine scrub high in the Himalayas in the north.Between these extremes, the country has semi-

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evergreen rain forests, deciduous monsoon forests,thorn forests, subtropical pine forests in the lowermontane zone, and temperate montane forests.According to the Forest Survey of India, the totalforest cover in the year 2000 was 6,75,538 km

2.

India is a largely agrarian society with nearly 64 percent of the population dependent on agriculture,although the share of agriculture in the gross domesticproduct has been continuously declining over the last50 years. Crop production in India takes place inalmost all land class types, namely, dry, semi dry,moist, sub humid, humid, fluvisols and gleysols.Agriculture will continue to be important in India’seconomy in the years to come as it feeds a large andgrowing population, employs a large labour force,and provides raw material to agro-based industries.

India is the second most populous country in theworld. The population crossed the one billion markin 2000. The decadal population growth rate hassteadily declined from 24.8 per cent during 1961-1971to 21.3 per cent during 1991-2001 and is expected tofurther decline to 16.2 per cent during 2001-2011,due to various policies of the Government of Indiarelating to family welfare, education, health andempowerment of women.

India had more than 160 million households in 1994.Nearly three fourths of these households live in ruralareas, accounting for one-third of total nationalprimary energy consumption. With rising incomes,households at all socioeconomic levels areincreasingly using energy using devices such aselectric bulbs, fans, televisions, refrigerators, washingmachines, air-coolers, air-conditioners, water heaters,scooters and cars. The related greenhouse gas (GHG)emissions will continue to rise even though the energyefficiencies of the appliances are continuallyimproving.

GDP (at factor cost and constant prices) grew by 7.2per cent in the fiscal year 1994. In the decadefollowing 1990s, the annual average GDP growth ratewas 6.6 per cent making India one of the 10 fastestgrowing economies of the world. Key socio-economicindicators for 1994 are presented in Table 1.

The Indian economy has made enormous strides since

independence in 1947, achieving self-sufficiency infood for a rising population, increasing per capita GDPby over three-times, reducing illiteracy and fertilityrates, creating a strong and diversified industrial base,building up infrastructure, developing technologicalcapabilities in sophisticated areas and establishinggrowing linkages with the world economy. However,much remains to be achieved and the Government ofIndia is committed to developmental targets that aremore ambitious than the United Nations MillenniumDevelopment Goals. The high incidence of povertyunderlines the need for rapid economic developmentto create more remunerative employment and forinvestment in social infrastructure such as health andeducation. Notwithstanding the climate friendlyorientation of national policies, the development to

Table 1: National circumstances, 1994

Note: The monthly per capita income poverty lines for rural andurban areas are defined as Rs. 228 and Rs. 305 respectively for1994-95.Sources: Economic Survey 1995-1996 and 2000-01. EconomicDivision, Ministry of Finance, Government of India; Census ofIndia, 1991 and 2001. Government of India.

Criteria 1994

Population (million) 914Area (million square kilometers) 3.28GDP at Factor cost 1994-95(1993-94 prices) Rs billion 8,380GDP at Factor cost 1994-95(1993-94 prices) US$ billion 269GDP per capita (1994 US$) 294Share of industry in GDP for 1994-95(per cent) 27.1Share of services in GDP for 1994-95(per cent) 42.5Share of agriculture in GDP for 1994-95(per cent) 30.4Land area used for agricultural purposes(million square kilometers) 1.423Urban population as percentage of totalpopulation 26Livestock population excluding poultry(million) 475Forest area (million square kilometers) 0.64Population below poverty line (per cent) 36Life expectancy at birth (years) 61Literacy rate (per cent) 57

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meet the basic needs and aspirations of a vast andgrowing population will lead to increased GHGemissions in the future.

Energy use during the past five decades hasexpanded, with a shift from non-commercial tocommercial energy. Among commercial energysources, the dominant source is coal with a share of47 per cent. The dominance of coal is because Indiais endowed with significant coal reserves of about221 Bt (billion tonnes) that is expected to last muchlonger than its oil and natural gas reserves. The sharesof petroleum and natural gas in the total commercialenergy used in the country are 20 percent and 11percent respectively. The total renewable energyconsumption including biomass amounts is about 30per cent of the total primary energy consumption inIndia. A number of steps are being initiated todevelop renewable sources of energy in a systematicmanner. However, coal being abundant, cheap andlocally available would remain mainstay of the Indianenergy system for energy security reasons.

GREENHOUSE GAS INVENTORYINFORMATION

The 1994 inventory of greenhouse gases for Indiaprovides a comprehensive estimate of emissions bysources and removals by sinks of carbon dioxide,methane and nitrous oxide not controlled by theMontreal Protocol. The GHG inventory is reportedin terms of the non-Annex 1 guidelines (Table 2). Fora transparent and comparable inventory, the revisedIntergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)guidelines prescribed for development of nationalGHG inventories have been applied. A major efforthas been devoted towards improving the basis for

preparing the inventory, which involves use of activitydata and country specific greenhouse gas emissioncoefficients. Emission coefficients in key sectors havebeen developed which include CO2 emissioncoefficients for Indian coal types, CO2 and CH4

emission coefficients for road vehicles, CH4 emissioncoefficients for coal mining, enteric fermentation, andrice cultivation.

In 1994, 1,228,540 Gg of CO2-eq of anthropogenicgreenhouse gases (GHGs) were emitted from Indiaresulting in a per capita emission of about 1.3 tons.CO2 emissions were the largest at 793,490 Gg, i.e. 65per cent of the total national CO2-eq emissions. Theshares of CH4 and N2O were 31 per cent (18,082 Gg)and 4 per cent (178 Gg), respectively (see Figure 1a).Details of GHG emissions by sector are given in Table2. Of the total CO2-eq emissions in 1994, the largestshare of 61 per cent was contributed by the all energysector, followed by the agriculture sector at 28 percent, industrial process at 8 per cent, waste at 2 percent and land use, land use change and forestry at 1per cent (see Figure 1b).

Total CO2 emitted in 1994 from all the above sectorswas 817,023 Gg and removal by sinks was 23,533Gg resulting in net emission of 793,490 Gg of CO2.This constituted 65 per cent of the total GHG releasedin 1994. CO2 emissions were contributed by activitiesin the energy sector, industrial processes, and landuse, land use change and forestry (LULUCF). Therelative shares of the three sectors to the total CO2

released from the country were 85 per cent, 13 percent and 2 per cent, respectively (see Figure 2). Theindustrial process sector, which includes processessuch as iron and steel manufacturing and cementproduction, is also a major source of CO2. Whereas

Figure 1: Distribution of GHG emissions from India in 1994 (a) Gas by Gas emission distribution (b) sectoraldistribution of CO2 equivalent emissions.

(a) (b)

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Table 2: India’s national greenhouse gas inventories in Gigagram (Gg) of anthropogenic emissions by sourcesand removals by sinks of greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol for the base year 1994.

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# Not counted in the national totals.*Converted by using Global warming potential (GWP) indexed multipliers of 21 and 310 for converting CH4 and N2O respectively to CO2

equivalents.

Greenhouse gas source and sink categories CO2 CO2 CH4 N2O CO2eq.(Giga gram per year) emission removals emission emission emission*

Total (Net) National Emission 817023 23533 18083 178 1228540

1. All Energy 679470 2896 11.4 743820Fuel combustionEnergy and transformation industries 353518 4.9 355037Industry 149806 2.8 150674Transport 79880 9 0.7 80286Commercial-institutional 20509 0.2 20571Residential 43794 0.4 43918All other sectors 31963 0.4 32087Biomass burnt for energy 1636 2.0 34976

Fugitive Fuel EmissionOil and natural gas system 601 12621Coal mining 650 13650

2. Industrial Processes 99878 2 9 1027103. Agriculture 14175 151 344485

Enteric Fermentation 8972 188412Manure Management 946 1 20176Rice Cultivation 4090 85890Agricultural crop residue 167 4 4747Emission from Soils 146 45260

4. Land use, Land-use change and Forestry* 37675 23533 6.5 0.04 14292Changes in Forest and other woody biomass stock 14252 (14252)Forest and Grassland Conversion 17987 17987Trace gases from biomass burning 6.5 0.04 150Uptake from abandonment ofManaged lands 9281 (9281)Emissions and removals from soils 19688 19688

5. Other Sources as appropriate and to theextent possible

5a. Waste 1003 7 23233Municipal Solid Waste Disposal 582 12222Domestic Waste water 359 7539Industrial Waste Water 62 1302Human Sewage 7 2170

5b. Emission from Bunker fuels # 3373 3373Aviation 2880 2880Navigation 493 493

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Figure 2: Sectoral CO2 emissions in 1994.

Figure 3: Sectoral CH4 emission in 1994.

16 per cent of the total CH4emissions came from energysources such as biomass burning, coal mining andhandling, and flaring of natural gas systems. Wastedisposal activities contributed about 6 percent of thetotal CH4 emission. Methane emitted from land use,land use change and forestry sector was minor andwas due to the burning of biomass in shiftingcultivation practices. Similarly, CH4 emitted fromIndustrial processes was only 2 Gg . The sectoraldistribution of CH4 emitted from various sources in1994 is shown in Figure 3.

Total N2O emission in 1994 was 178 Gg contributing4 per cent of the total GHG emissions. Significantemission of N2O was from the agriculture sector,which accounted for 84 per cent of total N2O emission.Fuel combustion accounted for 7 per cent of theemission; industrial processes 5 per cent, and waste 4per cent (see Figure 4). Emission from biomassburning was insignificant.

Figure 4: Sectoral N2O emissions in 1994.

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CO2 emissions from energy sector include emissionsfrom fossil fuel combustion throughout the economy,CO2 emissions from biomass fuels are treated ascarbon neutral and therefore not included in thenational totals.

Total national CH4 emission in the year 1994 was18,583 Gg. Of this the share of agriculture sector was78 per cent. Emission due to enteric fermentation(8,972 Gg) and rice cultivation were the highest (4,090Gg) sources of CH4 emission in the agriculture sector.

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENTAND ADAPTATION

India has reasons to be concerned about the impactsof climate change. Its large population depends onclimate-sensitive sectors like agriculture and forestryfor livelihoods. Any adverse impact on wateravailability due to recession of glaciers, decrease inrainfall and increased flooding in certain pocketswould threaten food security, cause die back of naturalecosystems including species that sustain the

N2O emission (Gg)

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livelihoods of rural households,and adversely impact the coastalsystem due to sea level rise andincreased frequency of extremeevents. Apart from these,achievement of vital nationaldevelopment goals related toother systems such as habitats,health, energy demand, andinfrastructure investments wouldbe adversely affected.

Climate projections: Significantincrease of the order of 0.4°C inthe past one hundred years in theannual global average surface airtemperature has already beenobserved. While annual averagemonsoon rainfall at the all-Indialevel for the same period hasbeen without any trend andvariations have been random in nature, increase inmonsoon seasonal rainfall have been recorded alongthe west coast, north Andhra Pradesh and north-westIndia (+10 to +12 per cent of normal/100 years) while

Figure 5:. Projections of seasonal surface airtemperature for the period 2041-60, based on theregional climate model HadRM2.

decreasing trends have been observed over eastMadhya Pradesh and adjoiningareas, north-east India and partsof Gujarat and Kerala (-6 to -8per cent of normal/100 years).Using the second generationHadley Center Regional Model(Had RM2) and the IS92a futurescenarios of increasedgreenhouse gas concentrations,marked increase in seasonalsurface air temperature isprojected into the 21st century,becoming conspicuous after the2040s (Figure 5). Climateprojections indicate increases inboth maximum as well asminimum temperatures over theregion south of 25°N, themaximum temperature isprojected to increase by 2-4°Cduring the 2050s. In the northernregion the increase in maximum

temperature may exceed 4°C. Model projections alsoindicate an increase in minimum temperature by 4°C

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Figure 6:. Projections of seasonal precipitation forthe period 2041-60, based on the regional climatemodel HadRM2.

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all over the country, which may increase further inthe southern peninsula. Little change in monsoonrainfall is projected up to the 2050s at the all-Indiascale level (Figure 6). However there is an overalldecrease in the number of rainfall days over a majorpart of the country. This decrease is greater in thewestern and central parts (by more than 15 days)while near the Himalayan foothills (Uttaranchal) andin northeast India the number of rainfall days mayincrease by 5-10 days. Increase in rainfall intensityby 1-4 mm/day is expected all over India, except forsmall areas in northwest India where the rainfallintensities may decrease by 1 mm/day.

Assessment of the projections of future climate bydifferent GCMs show a consistent rise in temperatureacross all models, indicating that these predictionsare robust. However, the projections of rainfall varyacross models. Though the climate models used forassessing future climate have their inherent limitationsand uncertainties, the results obtained through thesemodels give an indication of the likely changes inclimate in the future. The consequences of these

expected changes would vary greatly across the lengthand breadth of India due to its complex geographyand climate patterns. Regional and sectoral variabilityin levels of social and economic development requiresin-depth regional and sectoral assessment ofvulnerability due to the projected climate change, andformation of adaptation strategies. The informationavailable for assessments of impact is fragmentary.An effort was made during preparation of the InitialNational Communication to undertake modeling andresearch studies and collate existing information onimpact assessment and development strategies whichmay mitigate some impacts.

Water resources: Water is a precious natural resourcesupporting human activities and ecosystems, and atthe same time very complex to manage judiciously. Thehydrological cycle, a fundamental component ofclimate, is likely to be altered in important ways due toclimate change. Using the SWAT (Soil and WaterAssessment Tool) water balance model for hydrologicmodeling of different river basins in the country, incombination with the outputs of the HadRM2 regional

climate model, preliminaryassessments have revealed thatunder the IS92a scenario, theseverity of droughts and intensityof floods in various parts of Indiais likely to increase. Further, thereis a general reduction in thequantity of available runoff underthe IS92a scenario. River basinsof Sabarmati and Luni, whichoccupy about one quarter of thearea of Gujarat and 60 percent ofthe area of Rajasthan, are likelyto experience acute water scarceconditions. River basins of Mahi,Pennar, Sabarmati and Tapi arelikely to experience constantwater scarcity and shortage.River basins of the Cauvery,Ganga, Narmada and Krishna arelikely to experience seasonal orregular water stressed conditions.River basins of the Godavari,Brahmani and Mahanadi are

projected to experience water shortages only in a fewlocations (Figure 7).

Figure 7: Broad variation in vulnerability of differentregions to projected climate change.

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Ground water inventory is presently 0.34 million km3.

Although efforts are being made to promote improvedwater management practices such as waterconservation, artificial recharge and watershedmanagement, and integrated water development, theprojected water demand of over 980 billion cubicmeters in 2050 will require intensive development ofground water resources, exploiting both dynamic andin-storage potential.

It is obvious that the projected climate changeresulting in warming, sea level rise and melting ofglaciers will adversely affect the water balance indifferent parts of India and quality of ground wateralong the coastal plains. Climate change is likely toaffect ground water due to changes in precipitationand evapotranspiration. Rising sea levels may lead toincreased saline intrusion into coastal and islandaquifers, while increased frequency and severity offloods may affect groundwater quality in alluvialaquifers. Increased rainfall intensity may lead tohigher runoff and possibly reduced recharge.

Agriculture sector: Food grain production in Indiahas increased from 50 million tons in 1951 to 212million tons in 2002, while the mean cerealproductivity has increased from 500 kg ha

-1 to almost

1800 kg ha-1. Despite this progress, food production

in India, is still considerably dependent on the rainfallquantity and its distribution, which is highly variablespatially as well as temporally. In the past fifty years,there have been around 15 major droughts, due towhich the productivity of rainfed crops in droughtyears was adversely affected.. Limited options ofalternative livelihoods and widespread povertycontinue to threaten livelihood security of millionsof small and marginal farmers in the rainfedagriculture region. Food security of India may be atrisk in future due to the threat of climate changeleading to increase in frequency and intensity ofdroughts and floods, thereby affecting production onsmall and marginal farms.

Simulations using dynamic crop models, having theflexibility to independently assess the impacts oftemperature rise and CO2 increase on crop production,indicate a decrease in yield of crops as temperatureincreases in different parts of India. These reductionswere, however, generally offset by the increase in

CO2; the magnitude of this response varied with crop,region, and climate change (“pessimistic” or“optimistic”, “pessimistic” scenario refer to highincrease in temperature and low increase in CO2, while“optimistic” scenario refers to large increase in CO2

and a low change in temperature). Irrigated rice yieldsmay have a small gain, irrespective of the scenariothroughout India. Wheat yields in central India arelikely to suffer drop in crop yield up to 2 per centin pessimistic scenario but there is also apossibility that yields may increase by 6 per centif the global change is optimistic. Sorghum, beinga C4 plant, does not show any significant responseto increase in CO2 and hence these scenarios areunlikely to affect its yield. However, if thetemperature increases are higher, western Indiamay show some negative effect on productivity dueto reduced crop durations.

Forest eco-systems: Preliminary assessments usingBIOME-3 vegetation response model, based onregional climate model projections (HadRM2) forIndia show shifts in forest boundary, changes inspecies-assemblage or forest types, changes in netprimary productivity, possible forest die-back in thetransient phase, and potential loss or change inbiodiversity. Enhanced levels of CO2 are projected toresult in an increase in the net primary productivity(NPP) of forest ecosystems over more than 75 percent of the forest area. Even in a relatively short spanof about 50 years, most of the forest biomes in Indiaseem to be highly vulnerable to the projected changein climate (Figure 8). About 70 per cent of thevegetation in India is likely to find itself less thanoptimally adapted to its existing location, making itmore vulnerable to the adverse climatic conditionsas well as to the increased biotic stresses.Biodiversity is also likely to be adverselyimpacted. These impacts on forests will haveadverse socio-economic implications for forest-dependent communities and the national economy.The impacts of climate change on forestecosystems are likely to be long-term andirreversible. Thus, there is a need for developingand implementing adaptation strategies to minimizepossible adverse impacts. Further, there is a need to studyand identify the forest policies, programmes andsilvicultural practices that contribute to vulnerabilityof forest ecosystems to climate change.

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Figure 8: Vegetation map for the year 2050 (right) under GHG run of HadRM2 considering all grids of Indiaand potential vegetation (including grids without forests). The control run (without GHG increase) is shown onthe left.

Natural ecosystems: Natural ecosystems such asgrasslands, mangroves, and coral reefs are also likelyto be affected by climate change. Increasingatmospheric CO2 levels would favour C3 plants overC4 grasses, but the projected increases in temperaturewould favor the C4 plants. Climate change would thusbe region-specific and involve a complex interactionof factors. Sea level rise would submerge mangrovesas well as increase the salinity of wetlands. This wouldfavour mangrove plants that tolerate higher salinity.Increased snowmelt in the western Himalayas couldbring larger quantities of fresh water into the Gangeticdelta. This would have significant consequences forthe composition of the Sundarbans mangroves,favoring mangrove species that have relatively lowertolerance to salinity. The projected sea-level rise of0.09-0.88 m between the years 1990 and 2100 seemswithin the ability of Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem,which presently face tidal amplitudes up to 5 m, toadapt. This may not be true for other mangroves suchas the Pichavaram and Muthupet where tidalamplitudes are much lower at 0.64 m and much ofthe inland areas are already under agriculture.Changes in local temperature and precipitation wouldalso influence the salinity of the mangrove wetlandsand have a bearing on plant composition.

An increase in sea-surface temperature would lead tothe bleaching of corals. Coral reefs could also bepotentially impacted by sea-level rise. Healthy reefflats seem able to adapt through vertical reef growthof 1 cm per year, that is within the range of theprojected sea-level rise over the next century.However, the same may not be true for degraded reefsthat are characteristic of densely populated regionsof South Asia.

Coastal zone: The coastal zone is an important andcritical region for India. It is densely populated andstretches over 7,500 km with the Arabian Sea in theWest and Bay of Bengal in the East. The total areaoccupied by coastal districts is around 379,610 km

2,

with an average population density of 455 personsper km

2, which is about 1.5 times the national average

of 324 persons per km2. Under the present climate, it

has been observed that the sea-level rise (0.4-2.0 mm/year) along the Gulf of Kutchh and the coast of WestBengal is the highest. Along the Karnataka coast,however, there is a relative decrease in the sea level.

Future climate change in the coastal zones is likely tobe manifested through worsening of some of theexisting coastal zone problems. Some of the main

Dry SavannaXeric ShrublandTropical Seasonal ForestXeric WoodlandMoist SavannaBoreal/temperate Vegetation

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of sandy beaches, is also likely.The extent of vulnerability,however, depends not just on thephysical exposure to sea-levelrise and the population affected,but also on the extent ofeconomic activity of the areas andcapacity to cope with impacts(see Figure 9).

Human health: The overallsusceptibility of the Indianpopulation to environmentalhealth concerns has decreased inrecent years as a result of theimprovement in access to healthfacilities. The extent of access toand utilization of health carevaries substantially betweenstates, districts and differentsegments of society. To a largeextent, this is responsible forsubstantial differences betweenstates in health indices of the

population. During the 1990s, the mortality ratesreached a plateau, and India entered an era of dualdisease burden. Communicable diseases have becomemore difficult to combat because of the developmentof insecticide resistant strains of vectors. Malaria isone such disease in India that has been prevalentover the years, despite government efforts to eradicateit. The climate, vegetation and other socioeconomicparameters conducive to its prevalence areconsistently present in some regions of India. It isprojected that malaria will move to higher latitudesand altitudes in India, with 10 per cent more areaoffering climatic opportunities for the malaria vectorto breed throughout the year during the 2080s withrespect to the year 2000 (see Figure 10).

Infrastructure and energy: Large investments arebeing committed to new infrastructure projects, suchas improving drinking water availability, constructionof roads and highways, the cost of which runs intobillions of US dollars. Infrastructure being long-lifeassets are designed to withstand normal variability inclimate regime. However, climate change can affectboth average conditions and the probability of extremeevents, temperatures, precipitation patterns, water

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Figure 9: Coastal districts vulnerable to climatechange.

climate-related concerns in the context of the Indiancoastal zones are erosion, flooding, submergence anddeterioration of coastal ecosystems, such asmangroves and salinization. In many cases, theseproblems are either caused by, or exacerbated by, sea-level rise and tropical cyclones. The key climate-related risks in the coastal zone include tropicalcyclones, sea-level rise, and changes in temperatureand precipitation. A rise in sea level is likely to havesignificant implications on the coastal population andagricultural performance of India. A one-metre sea-level rise is projected to displace approximately 7.1million people in India and about 5,764 squarekilometers of land area will be lost, along with 4,200km of roads.

The diverse impact expected as a result of sea-levelrise include land loss and population displacement,increased flooding of low-lying coastal areas, loss ofyield and employment resulting from inundation, andsalinization. Damage to coastal infrastructure,aquaculture and coastal tourism, due to the erosion

High Vulnerability

Medium Vulnerability

Low Vulnerability

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availability, flooding and water logging, vegetationgrowth, land slides and land erosion in the mediumand long-run which may have serious impacts oninfrastructure. These are likely to lead to hugemonetary losses, if not taken into consideration whileplanning. Studies indicate that increased temperatureswould increase space-cooling requirements, whileenhanced groundwater demand would increase water-pumping requirements. These will enhance theelectricity demand and add costs to the consumersfor maintaining their lifestyles, as well as to theelectricity production systems.

The projected variability in precipitation canimpact the irrigation needs and consequentlyincrease electricity demand in agriculture sector.This would result in the need for higher powergeneration capacity. Also, about 1.5 per centadditional power generation capacity would berequired for enhanced space cooling requirementsas a result of increase in temperature. Theseadditional power requirements are likely to bepartly offset by adoption of various energyconservation measures in these areas as the projectedenergy saving potential in these sectors is very high.However, implementation of energy conservationmeasures would require substantial investments.

Though the Government of India has taken manypolicy decisions that reduce risks and enhance theadaptive capacity of the most vulnerable sectors andgroups by promoting sustainable development,considerable scope exists for including more measuresto cover the entire range of impacts due to the presentclimate variability. Currently, income disparities andhigh population growth constrain the opportunitiesand equitable access to the existing socialinfrastructure. The projected climate change couldfurther accentuate these conditions. The challengethen is to identify opportunities that facilitate thesustainable use of existing resources. Faster economicdevelopment with more equitable income distribution,improved disaster management efforts, sustainablesectoral policies, careful planning of capital intensiveand climate sensitive long-life infrastructure assets,are some measures that will assist India in reducingits vulnerability to climate change.

RESEARCH AND SYSTEMATICOBSERVATION

India’s observational and research capabilities havebeen developed to capture its unique geography andspecific requirements, and also to fulfil internationalcommitments of data exchange for weather

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Figure 10: Transmission window of malaria in different states of India.(a) for 2000 and (b) under projected climate change scenario during the 2080s.

(a) (b)

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forecasting and allied research activities. Modernizedmeteorological observations and research in India wasinitiated more than 200 years ago, in 1793, when thefirst Indian meteorological observatory was set up atMadras (Chennai). A network of about 90 weatherobservatories was established in 1875, when the IndiaMeteorological Department was set up. Many dataand research networks have since been establishedfor climate dependent sectors, such as agriculture,forestry and hydrology, rendering a modernscientific background to atmospheric science inIndia. Inclusion of the latest data from satellites andother modern observation platforms, such asautomated weather stations, ground-based remotesensing techniques, and ocean data buoys hasstrengthened India’s long-term strategy of buildingup a self-reliant climate data bank.

Indian researchers have contributed significantly to theglobal knowledge on climate change by undertakingresearch and through participation in internationalscientific processes, especially in the preparation ofvarious assessment reports of the IPCC. TheGovernment of India, under its various programmes,promotes and supports numerous multidisciplinarystudies on climate change and related issues, both inthe national and international context, such asunderstanding climate variability, sectoral and sub-regional vulnerability and impact assessments due toclimate change, climate modelling, measurement ofatmospheric trace constituents, GHG, and integratingclimate change concerns into national planning.

The Government of India also makes investments forthe promotion of research and development on acontinuous basis in various aspects of environmentalconservation, including research in climate changeand development of new technologies, e.g., renewableenergy, afforestation, replacement of hydrocarbons insurface transport by alternative fuels, such ascompressed natural gas (CNG) and ethanol. Thegovernment has also allowed the mixing of ethanolto the extent of 5 per cent with petrol. However, anunderstanding of the national circumstances isimportant for a comprehensive treatment of climatechange issues, concerns and opportunities.

Despite the fact that there is growing literature onclimate change science and policy, there is a

considerable gap of material on developing countries.There is a great need to bridge this gap to enhanceunderstanding on diverse dimensions of climatechange problems, and to facilitate global, national andlocal policy making, keeping in mind the problemsof developing countries.

EDUCATION, TRAINING ANDPUBLIC AWARENESS

The Government of India has created mechanisms forincreasing awareness on climate change issuesthrough outreach and education initiatives in recentyears. The Environmental Information System(ENVIS) centres have been set up throughout thecountry to generate and provide environmentalinformation to decision makers, policy planners,scientists, researchers and students, through web-enabled systems.

The Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) isthe coordinating agency in India for Global Learningand Observations to Benefit the Environment(GLOBE). Students collect data on variousenvironmental parameters related to atmosphere,water, soil and vegetation, and report their data to theGLOBE website.

India hosted the Eighth Conference of Parties (COP-8) to the UNFCCC during 23 October to 1 November2002 in New Delhi. The event helped in generatingawareness about climate change among variousstakeholders in India. Apart from this, considerable

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Students recording temperature data at a GLOBE school’sweather station.

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awareness has been generated through the processof the initial national communication executed andimplemented by the MoEF. It followed a broad-basedparticipatory approach, involving 131 research teamsdrawn from premier research institutions, universities,government ministries and departments, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) of repute acrossthe country. The activities included a preparation ofthe GHG inventory, assessment of vulnerability toclimate change and development of adaptationresponses, assimilation of information relating tonational circumstances, research and systematicobservation, education, training and public awareness,and the creation of a data centre and website. Whileundertaking these activities, 27 sectoral thematic andtraining workshops and conferences at national andsub-regional levels were organized across the countryfor capacity building. For dissemination ofactivities related to India’s initial nationalcommunication and climate change issues, a website(www.natcomindia.org) has been launched.

Government initiatives, such as the diffusion ofrenewable energy technologies, joint forestmanagement, water resource management,agricultural extension services, micro financing, web-enabled services for farmers and rural areas, petroleumconservation research and consumer awareness,energy parks for demonstration of clean energytechnologies, establishment of the TechnologyInformation, Forecasting & Assessment Council,environmental education in schools and highereducation, represent a broad spectrum of initiativesfor education, training and public awareness onclimate and related issues.

The media, industry associations and civil societyhave also played active roles. A recent study indicatedthat out of 50 large Indian corporate houses, morethan three-quarters had an environmental policy, sixtyper cent had an environment department, and fourout of every 10 had formal environment certification(ISO 14001). All the major industry associations havea climate change division and have taken initiativesto conduct training and generate awareness in keyareas, such as energy efficiency and otherenvironment friendly projects.

Several civil society initiatives have sought to build

capacity and create awareness about climate-friendlyissues. Grassroots-level activities are undertaken thatseek to improve the ability of communities to managetheir natural resources, generate sustainablelivelihoods, develop infrastructure, and participate indecision making, thereby improving their capabilityto cope with climatic stresses.

In addition, numerous capacity-building initiativeshave been undertaken in India. A vital aspect of thisprocess has been the participation by the central andstate government agencies, research institutions,NGOs and industry. The Government of India hasinstituted consultative processes for climate changepolicies. Indian researchers have made significantcontributions to international scientific assessments.Awareness workshops and seminars on issuesconcerning climate change have been conductedacross the country over the last decade. However, inthe wake of the complexity of climate change issues,the task is far from complete, and assessments in arange of areas and analyses of uncertainties and risksremain to be undertaken.

PROGRAMMES RELATED TOSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

India’s development plans are crafted with a balancedemphasis on economic development and environment.The planning process, while targetting an acceleratedeconomic growth, is guided by the principles ofsustainable development with a commitment to acleaner and greener environment. Planning in Indiaseeks to increase wealth and human welfare, whilesimultaneously conserving the environment. Itemphasizes the promotion of people’s participatoryinstitutions and social mobilization, particularlythrough the empowerment of women, for ensuringenvironmental sustainability of the developmentprocess.

The past few years have witnessed the introductionof landmark environmental measures in India thathave targetted conservation of rivers, improvementof urban air quality, enhanced forestation and asignificant increase in the installed capacity ofrenewable energy technologies. These and similarmeasures, affirmed by the democratic and legislativeprocesses, have been implemented by committing

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Executive Summary

additional resources, as well as by realigning newinvestments. These deliberate actions, by consciouslyfactoring in India’s commitment to the UNFCCC,have realigned economic development to a moreclimate friendly and sustainable path.

The principal objective of the national developmentstrategy is to reduce the incidence of poverty to 10per cent by 2012 and provide gainful employment.The target GDP growth rate of 8 per cent during thecurrent decade, therefore, aims to double our percapita income during this period. Achieving thesedevelopment priorities will require a substantialincrease in energy consumption both at macro andmicro levels, and consequent rise in GHG emissions.Coal, being the most abundant domestic energyresource, would continue to play a dominant role. Theper capita emissions, which are currently a fifth ofthe world average, can therefore be expected to rise.Even so, our per capita emissions will remainsignificantly below the current world average duringnext several years.

India is endowed with diverse energy resources,wherein coal has a dominant share. Therefore, theIndian energy system evolved with a large share ofcoal in the energy consumption. This, coupled withthe rising energy consumption, led to a rising carbonemissions trajectory in the past. However, India’s percapita CO2 emission of 0.87 t-CO2 in 1994 is stillamongst the lowest in the world. It is 4 per cent of theUS per capita CO2 emissions in 1994, 8 per cent ofGermany, 9 per cent of UK, 10 per cent of Japan and23 per cent of the global average. India’s energy,power, and carbon intensities of the GDP havedeclined after the mid-nineties, due to factors such asincreased share of service sector in the GDP, andenergy efficiency improvements. India has also takensome initiatives to enhance penetration of low carbon-intensive fuels like natural gas and carbon-free sourceslike renewable energy. The programmes andinstitutions to promote energy efficiency, energyconservation and renewable technologies wereinitiated over two decades ago in India. The recentreforms in the energy and power sectors have resultedin accelerated economic growth, improvements in fuelquality, technology stocks, infrastructure,management practices, and lowered the barriers toefficiency.

CONSTRAINTS AND GAPS, ANDRELATED FINANCIAL,TECHNICAL AND CAPACITYNEEDS

The Initial National Communication exercise offeredan opportunity to enrich and enhance India’sexperience in identifying constraints, gaps and relatedfinancial, technical and capacity needs to adequatelyfulfill our obligations under the UNFCCC,including the continuing need for improving thequality of national GHG inventories, regional andsectoral assessment of vulnerabili t ies andadaptation responses, and the communication ofinformation on a continuous basis.

The data needs for continuous reporting have beenidentified, taking into consideration the data gaps andconstraints experienced during the preparation of theinitial national communication (Table 3). Measuresfor improving the future national communicationwould include designing consistent data reportingformats for continuous GHG inventory reporting,collecting data for formal and informal sectors of theeconomy, enhancing data depths to move to a highertier of inventory reporting, and conducting detailedand fresh measurements for Indian emissioncoefficients.

Several thematic and specific projects are identifiedfor building the research capacity and implementingthe climate change project in the country as a part ofthe preparatory process for national communication.These are representative projects only and do notpresent an exhaustive elucidation of India’s financialand technological needs and constraints. Withenhanced scientific understanding and increasedawareness, further areas of investigation will beidentified.

Capacity building, networking and resourcecommitment form the core of institutionalizingIndian climate change research initiatives. Thisinvolves a shared vision for cooperative researchfor strengthening and enhancing scientificknowledge and understanding, institutionalcapacity (instrumentation, modelling tools, datasynthesis and data management), technical skillsfor climate change researchers, inter-agency

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Table 3: Key Gaps and Constraints for Sustained National Communication Activities.

Gaps and Description Potential measuresconstraints (Illustrative examples)

Data organization Published data not available in IPCC friendly Design consistent reportingformats for inventory reporting. formats.

Inconsistency in top-down and bottom-up data sets Data collection consistency

for same activities. required.Mismatch in sectoral details across different Design consistent in reporting

published documents. formats.

Non-availability Time series data for some specific inventory Generate relevant data sets.of relevant data sub-categories, e.g., municipal solid waste sites.

Data for informal sectors of economy. Conduct data surveys.

Data for refining inventory to higher tier levels. Data depths to be improved.Non- Proprietary data for inventory reporting at Involve industry and monitoring

accessibility of Tier III level. institutions.

data Data not in electronic formats. Identify critical datasets anddigitize.

Lack of institutional arrangements for data sharing.

Time delays in data access. Awareness generation.Technical and Training the activity data generating institutions in Arrange extensive training

institutional GHG inventory methodologies and data formats. programmes.

capacity needs Institutionalize linkages of inventory estimation Wider dissemination activities.with broader perspectives of climate change

research.

Non-representative Inadequate sample size for representative emission Conduct more measurements.emission coefficients coefficient measurements in many sub-sectors.

Limited resources to Research networks. Collaborative research, GEF/

sustain national international funding.communication India-specific emission coefficients. Conduct adequate sample

efforts measurements for key source

categories.Vulnerability assessment and adaptation. Sectoral and sub-regional impact

scenario generation, layered

data generation and organization,modelling efforts, case studies

for most vulnerable regions.

Data centre and website. National centre to be established

collaboration and networking, and medium to long-term resource commitment.

Capacities thus strengthened and enhanced can beeffectively used for the refinement of GHG inventories,development of climate change projections (with

reduced uncertainties and at higher resolutions), long-term GHG emission scenarios, detailed impactassessments and formulation of adaptation strategies,developing the capability to undertake integratedimpact assessments at sub-regional scales and thediffusion of climate-friendly technologies

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Given the magnitude of the tasks, complexities oftechnology solutions and diversity of adaptationactions envisaged for an improved and continuousreporting of national communications in the future,

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the incremental financial needs would be substantialfor addressing and responding to the requirements ofthe Climate Change Convention.

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alternates with cold winters when temperatures plungeto freezing point. In contrast are the coastal regionsof the country, where the warmth is unvarying andthe rains are frequent. There is a large variation in theamounts of rainfall received at different locations. Theaverage annual rainfall is less than 13 cm over theThar desert, while at Cherrapunji in the north-east itis as much as 1080 cm (Figure 1.1). The rainfallpattern roughly reflects the different climate regimesof the country, which vary from humid in the north-east (about 180 days rainfall in a year), to arid inRajasthan (20 days rainfall in a year) 1 . A semi-aridbelt in the peninsular region extends in the areabetween the humid west coast and the central andeastern parts of the country.

The most important feature of India’s climate is theseason of concentrated rain called ‘the monsoon’. Sosignificant is the monsoon season to the Indianclimate, that the rest of the seasons are quite oftenreferred relative to the monsoon.

India is influenced by two seasons of rains,accompanied by seasonal reversal of winds from

India is a vast country covering 3.28 million km2,

and is situated north of the Equator between66

oE to 98

oE and 8

oN to 36

oN. It is bordered by

Nepal, China and Bhutan to the north;Bangladesh and Myanmar to the east; the Bayof Bengal to the south east; the Indian Oceanto the south; the Arabian Sea to the west; andPakistan to the north west. India consists ofdiverse physio-geographical features that maybe classified into: (a) the Great Mountain Wall(the Himalayan range) in the north; (b) theNorthern Plains; (c) the Great PeninsularPlateau; (d) the Coastal Plains; and (e) theIslands. India occupies only 2.4 per cent of theworld’s land area, but supports about 16.2 percent of the world’s human population. India alsohas only 0.5 per cent of the world’s grazingarea, but supports almost a sixth of the world’slivestock population. This, as one can imagine,places unbearable stress on both the land andthe available natural resources. India is endowedwith varied soils, climate, biodiversity andecological regions. Under such diverse naturalconditions, over a billion people speakingdifferent languages, following differentreligions and inhabiting rural and urban areas,live in harmony under a democratic system.

CLIMATE

India’s unique geography produces a spectrum ofclimates over the subcontinent, affording it a wealthof biological and cultural diversity. The diversity isperhaps greater than any other area of similar size inthe world. Land areas in the north of the country havea continental climate with fierce summer heat that

Monsoons are the most important feature of India’s climate

1 A rainy day is defined as a day with a rainfall of 2.5 mm and

above, as per the operational practice of the India MeteorologicalDepartment.

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(b) Mean intensity of rainfall (mm/day).

Figure 1.1: Indian rainfall profile.

(a) Mean annual number of rainy days(> 2.5 mm rainfall/day).

(c) One-day extreme rainfall (cm/day).

January to July. During the winters, dry and cold airblowing from the northerly latitudes from a north-easterly direction prevails over the Indian region.Consequent to the intense heat of the summer months,the northern Indian landmass becomes hot and drawsmoist winds over the oceans causing a reversal of thewinds over the region. This is called the summer orthe south-west monsoon.

The four principal seasons—identified area:

� Winter—December, January and February.� Pre-monsoon or summer—March, April and May.� South-west monsoon—June, July, August and

September.

� Post-monsoon or Northeast monsoon—Octoberand November.

The cold weather season starts in early December.Clear skies, fine weather, light northerly winds, lowhumidity and temperatures, and large daytimevariations of temperature are the normal features ofthe weather in India from December to February. Thecold air mass extending from the Siberian region,influences the Indian subcontinent (at least all of thenorth and most of central India) during the wintermonths. The Himalayas obstruct some of thespreading cold air mass. The mean wintertemperatures increase from north to south up to 17°N, the decrease being sharp as one moves northwardsin the north-western parts of the country. DuringJanuary, the mean temperatures vary from 14 °C to27°C. The mean daily minimum temperatures rangefrom 22 °C in the extreme south, to 10 °C in thenorthern plains and 6 °C in Punjab. The rains duringthis season generally occur over the westernHimalayas, the extreme north-eastern parts, TamilNadu and Kerala.

The mean daily temperatures begin to rise all overthe country by the end of winter, and by April, theinterior parts of the peninsula record mean dailytemperatures of 30-35 °C. The central regions becomewarm with daytime maximum temperatures reachingabout 40 °C at many locations. During this season

The Himalayas in the north influence the Indian climateconsiderably.

20 40 60 80 100 120 140 10 15 20 25 30 35 10 20 30 40 60 80

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eastern regions in the states ofBihar, West Bengal and Assam.They are called norwestersbecause they generally approacha location from the northwestdirection (locally they are knownas Kal Baisakhis in the contextof their season of occurrence).

The SW monsoon over India isthe single most important featureof the Indian climate. Althoughit is spread over four months(June-September), its actualperiod at a specific place differs

depending on the dates of its onset and withdrawal.The duration of the monsoon varies from less than 75days as in West Rajasthan, to more than 120 daysobserved over the south-western regions of peninsularIndia. The rains during this season alone contributeto about 80 per cent of the annual rainfall of thecountry.

The SW monsoon normally sets in over the Keralacoast, the southern tip of the country, by 1 June,advances along the Konkan coast in early June andextends over the entire country by the end of July. Onislands in the Bay of Bengal, the onset occurs about aweek earlier. The onset of the monsoon over thecountry is one of the most spectacular meteorologicalevents every year and is looked upon with greatexpectations by the people of India as it heralds amajor rainy season and the beginning of sowingoperations on a large scale. The SW monsoon rains

Figure 1.2: Indian temperature profiles (1951-1980).

(a) Extreme maximum temperatures

stations in Gujarat, North Maharashtra, Rajasthan andNorth Madhya Pradesh are marked by high day-timeand low night-time temperatures. At many locationsin these regions, the range of the daytime maximumand night-time minimum temperatures exceeds 15 °C.In the north and north-west regions of the country,the maximum temperatures rise sharply, reachingvalues exceeding 45 °C by the end of May and earlyJune, heralding the harsh summers (Figure 1.2). Inthe coastal areas of the country, land and sea breezespredominate due to the stronger temperature contrastbetween the land and the sea during this season.

Tropical cyclones, which are intense circulations of200-300 km diameter, with winds blowing atvelocities close to 150 km/hr form in the Bay ofBengal and the Arabian sea during this season. Thestorms generally move towards a north-westerlydirection at first and later take a northerly or north-easterly path. Storms forming over the Bay of Bengalare more frequent than the ones originating over theArabian Sea. About 2.3 storms form on an averageduring a year.

Thunderstorms associated with rain and sometimeshail are the predominant phenomena of this season.Over the dry and hot plains of north-west India duststorms (known locally as andhis), accompanied withstrong dust-laden winds, occur frequently. Violentthunderstorms with strong winds and rain lasting forshort durations also occur over the eastern and north- Tropical cyclones cause wide-spread devastation.

(b) Extreme minimum temperatures30 33 36 39 42 45 48 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15

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exhibit a striking regularity in their seasonal onsetand distribution within the country, but are variableboth within the season, and from one year to another.Global features like El Nino, northern hemispherictemperatures and snow cover over Eurasia are knownto influence the year-to-year variability of monsoonperformance. Within a season, the monsoon rainfalloscillates between active spells associated withwidespread rains over most parts of the country andbreaks with little rainfall activity over the plains andheavy rains across the foothills of the Himalayas.Heavy rainfall in the mountainous catchments under‘break’ conditions leads to the occurrence of floodsover the plains. Breaks are also associated with veryuncomfortable weather due to high humidity andtemperatures.

The Bay of Bengal during this season, is a source ofcyclonic systems of low pressure called ‘monsoondepressions’. They form in the northern part of thebay with an average frequency of about two to threeper month and move in a northward or north-westwarddirection, bringing well-distributed rainfall over thecentral and northern parts of the country. The pathtaken by these depressions critically influence thedistribution of rainfall over northern and central India.

Towards the latter half of September, the SW monsooncurrent becomes feeble and begins withdrawing fromthe north-western parts of India. By the end ofSeptember, it withdraws from almost all parts of thecountry and is slowly replaced by a northerlycontinental airflow. The retreating monsoon windscause occasional showers along the east coast of TamilNadu, but decrease towards the interior.

The post-monsoon or north-east (NE) monsoonseason is a transitional season, when the north-easterlyairflow becomes established over the subcontinent.These winds produce the winter or NE monsoon rainsover the southern tip of the country during thetransitional period. Tropical cyclones that form in theBay of Bengal and move in during this season causeheavy rainfall along their path. Many parts of TamilNadu and some parts of Andhra Pradesh andKarnataka receive rainfall during this season solelydue to these storms. They can also cause widespreaddamage due to high-velocity winds and tidal wavesin the coastal regions.

The day temperatures all over the country begin fallingsharply. The mean temperatures over north-westernIndia fall from about 38 °C in October, to 28 °C inNovember. This is accompanied by a decrease inhumidity levels and clear skies over most parts ofnorth and central India after mid-October.

GEOGRAPHY, LAND USE ANDWATER RESOURCES

Water is the most critical component of life supportsystems. India shares about 16 per cent of the globalpopulation but it has only 4 per cent of the totalfreshwater resources. India is a land of many rivers.The 12 major rivers, spread over a catchment area of252.8 million hectares (Mha), cover more than 75 percent of the total area of the country. The rivers in Indiaare classified as: the Himalayan, peninsular, coastal,and inland-drainage basin rivers. The Himalayanrivers are snow fed and maintain a high to mediumrate of flow throughout the year. The heavy annualaverage rainfall levels in the Himalayan catchmentareas further add to their rates of flow. During thesummer monsoon months of June to September, thecatchment areas are prone to flooding. The volumeof the rain-fed peninsular rivers also increases duringthe monsoon. The coastal streams, especially thosein the west, are short and episodic. The rivers of theinland system, centred in western Rajasthan, are fewand sparse and frequently disappear altogether in yearsof poor rainfall. Most of the major Indian rivers flowthrough broad, shallow valleys and eventually draininto the Bay of Bengal.

The Ganges is the most prominent Indian river.

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Ground water is another major component of the totalavailable water resources. In the coming years theground water utilization is likely to increase manifoldfor the expansion of irrigated agriculture and toachieve national targets of food production. Althoughground water is an annually replenishable resource,its availability is non-uniform in terms of space andtime.

The land-use pattern is influenced by a variety offactors, such as population density, expandingurbanization, industrial growth, agriculture, grazingneeds, irrigation demands, and natural calamities likefloods and droughts. Despite these stresses, the areaunder forests has increased steadily due to proactivereforestation and afforestation programmes of theGovernment of India over the years, aimed atsustainable development. Presently, 23 per cent of thetotal land area is under forest and tree cover, while 44per cent is net sown area (Figure 1.3). The remainingone-third is almost equally distributed between fallowland, non-agricultural land, and barren land.

The panorama of Indian forests ranges from evergreentropical rain forests in the Andaman and NicobarIslands, the Western Ghats, and the north-eastern

states, to dry alpine scrub high in theHimalayas to the north. Between thetwo extremes, the country has semi-evergreen rain forests, deciduousmonsoon forests, thorn forests,subtropical pine forests in the lowermontane zone and temperatemontane forests. The forests of Indiacan be divided into 16 major types,comprising 221 sub-types. The areaunder forests as per land records was6,83,100 km2 in 1994 and 6,90,200km2 in 2000. However, the entirearea recorded as ‘forest’ did not bearforest cover (as this includesgrassland, wasteland and desertunder the administrative control ofthe state forest departments). India’sforest cover in 1994 was assessed in

1997 by the Forest Survey of India through satelliteimagery interpretation at 6,33,397 km2 (Figure 1.4),increasing to 6,75,538 km

2 for the year 2000 (as per

the assessment conducted in 2001). An estimated 2.46billion trees outside forests contributed an additionalarea of 81,472 km

2, making the total tree and forest

cover at 23.03 per cent of country’s geographic areain 2000.

The forests of India are a source of fuel and fodderfor rural people, an industrial input for a growingeconomy, a habitat for thousands of plant and animalspecies, a sink for CO2 emissions, and a protectivecover for its soils. An effective Forest (Conservation)

Figure 1.3: Indian land-use changes.Source: Land Use Classification and Irrigated Area: 1998-1999,Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.

A Sal forest in the central plains of India.

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Act, 1980, further strengthened in 1988, stipulating amassive afforestation programme, the establishmentof reserves and re-vegetation of degraded landsthrough joint forest management and people’sparticipation, helped India to conserve its forests andput a check on the diversion of forest land to non-forest uses. In spite of such measures, the averagegrowing stock in India is 74 m

3/ha, much lower than

the global average of 110 m3/ha. Despite the various

conservation acts, the forests themselves aredegrading because of continued illegal felling,extraction of fuel-wood and non-timber products,invasion by weeds, and forest fires.

Planned afforestation programmes began in the late1950s as a government policy for soil conservation,production of industrial raw material, fuel-wood,fodder, and increasing tree cover in urban areas. Afterthe establishment of Forest DevelopmentCorporations in the states and the launching of SocialForestry Projects, large-scale afforestation activitybegan in 1979. While the Forest Corporationscontinued planting industrially important species afterclear felling of the commercially less-valued forests,most of the plantations under social forestry wereestablished outside forest reserves, along rail, roadand canal sides, other government wastelands, and in

private farmlands using shortrotation species. The annual plantingrates were about 10,000 km

2 (1980-

1985), 17,800 km2 (1985-1990) and

about 15,000 km2 after 1991.

A comparison of the forest cover ofIndia between the years 1994 and2000 shows a net increase in theforest cover by 42,141 km

2. Dense

forest (>40% tree canopy cover)increased by 46,690 km

2 (excluding

dense mangroves), mainly due to theenhancement of many open forest

areas to the dense forest category. The area undermangroves declined by 265 km

2 during this period.

However, the forest cover of India has been increasingsteadily over the years due to various conservation-and climate-friendly policies of the government. Thisincrease is despite the diversion of about 43,200 km

2

of forestland for non-forest purposes such asagriculture (26,200 km

2), for feeding our increasing

population, and developmental activities such as rivervalley projects, industrialization, mining, and roadconstruction. In 1999, the Food and AgriculturalOrganization’s State of the World’s Forests Reporthad acknowledged that India was the only developingcountry in the world where the forest cover wasactually increasing.

Despite these policy-induced forest coverenhancements, uncontrolled grazing by domesticlivestock in forest areas is perhaps one of the mostimportant reasons for the degradation of forests inIndia, as it destroys the seedlings and young recruits,and in turn the regeneration process. It has beenestimated that about 77.6 per cent of India’s forestsare affected by livestock grazing. The pressure ofgrazing has increased tremendously owing to theincreasing cattle population.

Shifting cultivation, mostly practised in the north-eastern parts of India, is another factor responsiblefor the degradation of forests; this affected about 1.73Mha during 1987-1997. About 53 per cent of forestsin India are affected by fire; of these 8.9 per cent arefrequent incidences of fires while occasional firesaffect 44.2 per cent of the forest area in India. Theseresults are not indicative of annual fires, but indicate

Figure 1.4: Indian forest cover assessments,1987-2001.Note: Mangroves are not covered in either dense or open forestsduring 1987-1997 but are included in total forest area. Howeverthey have been sub-classified into dense and open forests since1999.Source: Status of Forest Reports, 1987 to 2001, Ministry ofEnvironment and Forests, Government of India.

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Figure 1.5: Physiographic zones of India.Source: Status of Forest Report, 2001.

that the areas are definitely prone to heavy or lightfires.

Almost 53.4 per cent of India’s land area comprisesarid and semi-arid regions (Figure 1.5). In theseregions, cultivation is restricted to more productivebut limited land, while a large animal populationdepends on native vegetation. The rains are erraticand often come in a few heavy storms of short durationresulting in high run-off, instead of replenishing theground water. Protective vegetation cover is sparse

and there is very little moisture for the most part ofthe year. India’s arid zone is the most denselypopulated desert in the world. The growing pressureon the land due to the ever increasing population (bothhuman and cattle) and the absence of any subsidiaryoccupation, compels people to cultivate the marginallands and graze the dunes. There is severe winderosion in areas that have bare soils andunconsolidated geological material, like sand. Thearea subjected to high wind erosion is about 59.2 Mha,which includes about 7.03 Mha of cold desert inLadakh and Lahaul valleys. In western Rajasthan, theprocess of desertification is active in about 13.3 Mha.The Government of India is committed to the United

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Nations Convention to Combat Desertification andprovides financial support and guidance for theimplementation of centrally-sponsored schemes suchas the Desert Development Programme, DroughtProne Areas Programme, and the IntegratedWatershed Projects in the country.

The wetlands in India are distributed in variousecological regions ranging from the cold and arid zoneof Ladakh, through the wet Imphal in Manipur, andthe warm and arid zone of Rajasthan-Gujarat to thetropical monsoon-influenced central India, and thewet humid zone of the southern peninsula. Recentremote sensing studies show that the total wetlandarea of India is 7.58 Mha; of this 5.3 Mha is naturalwetland, whereas 2.26 Mha is man-made wetland.

The coastal areas of India accommodate about one-fourth of the country’s population that depends to alarge extent on marine resources. Nine of the Indianstates, namely, Gujarat, Maharashtra, Goa, Karnataka,Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa and WestBengal are situated along the long coastline. Inaddition, some of the Union Territories such asPondicherry and Daman, and groups of islandsincluding Andaman and Nicobar in the Bay of Bengaland Lakshadweep in the Arabian Sea, also constitutecoastal ecosystems of great economic and ecologicalimportance.

AGRICULTURE

India is an agrarian society, with nearly 64 per centof the population dependent on agriculture, thoughthe share of agriculture in the GDP has beencontinuously declining. Crop production in India takesplace in almost all land class types, namely, dry, semi-dry, moist, sub humid, humid, fluvisols and gleysols.Agriculture will continue to be important in India’seconomy in the years to come as it helps to feed agrowing population, employs a large labour force, andprovides raw material to agro-based industries.

Given the physical and biogenetic diversity of theIndian subcontinent, a strategy of diversified andregionally differentiated agriculture is desirable forimproving the economy and augmenting its resources.India is one of the few developing countries that hasthe potential to produce crops in almost all land class

types. This is indeed a great policy challenge andopportunity; particularly so in an emergingenvironment which regards bio-diversity as nature’sbounty and not as earlier, a constraint to technologicalprogress.

Crop yield is a function of many factors, includingclimate, soil type and its nutrient status, managementpractices and other available inputs. Of these, climateplays an important role, probably more so in Indiawhere the majority of agriculture is dependent on themonsoon, and natural disasters such as droughts andfloods are very frequent. Therefore, efficient cropplanning requires a proper understanding of agro-climatic conditions. This calls for the collection,collation, analysis and interpretation of long-termweather parameters available for each region toidentify the length of the possible cropping period,taking into consideration the availability of water.

With 329 Mha of geographical area, India presents alarge number of complex agro-climatic situations. ThePlanning Commission of India has delineated 15 agro-climatic regions, which were proposed to form thebasis for agricultural planning in the country. The 15regions are: Western Himalayan, Eastern Himalayan,Lower Gangetic Plains, Middle Gangetic Plains,Upper Gangetic Plains, Trans-Gangetic Plains,Eastern Plateau and Hills, Central Plateau and Hills,Western Plateau and Hills, Southern Plateau and Hills,East Coast Plains and Hills, West Coast Plains andGhat, Gujarat Plains and Hills, Western Dry, and theIslands region. The agro-climatic zone planning aimsat the scientific management of regional resources tomeet the food, fibre, fodder and fuel-wood needswithout adversely affecting the status of naturalresources and the environment. The Ninth Plan hasreiterated that agricultural planning should follow theagro-climatic regions. This should now be done usingsatellite imagery to provide an up-to-date base fordevelopmental projects. The database has beenalready created and preparations for satellite-basedinformation systems are at a fairly advanced stage.

India has come a long way since the 1950s, from beinga food-starved to a food-sufficient country. Food grainproduction has increased by over four-fold since the1950s. Agriculture contributed 22.61 per cent toIndia’s GDP in 2001-2002, while 68 per cent of the

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country’s workforce is employed in this sector. Theimprovement in grain yield has been realized throughthe ‘green revolution’ in the 1960s, and later withimproved agricultural practices and inputs. Theseinclude improved mechanized farming since the1970s, increased net area under irrigation (31 Mha in1970-1971; 53 Mha in 1994-1995; and 57 Mha in1998-1999) and net sown area (119 Mha in 1950-1951 that has increased and almost saturated at 143Mha over the past decade). The growth in totalfertilizer consumption (2.6 Mt in 1970-1971; 13.6 Mtin 1994-1995; and 16.6 Mt in 2000-2001) and theavailability and use of high-yielding variety seeds(area under these for different crops increased from15.38 Mha in 1970-1971 to 72.11 Mha in 1995-1996),have contributed substantially to the increased grainyield. Despite the above improvements, agriculturein India is still heavily dependent upon the monsoon,indicating its vulnerability to climate change.

Agriculture has been accorded high priority under thedifferent five-year plans. The conversion of cultivablewastelands into the other categories of land use,especially into cultivated land, took place in the firsttwo decades after Independence. Net sown area hasincreased by 12 per cent during 1954-1994, while theintensity of farming (area sown more than once) hasincreased almost three-fold during the same period.India has made fair progress in developing her

agriculture in the past five decades and is now almostself-sufficient in food grain production.

India has 13 per cent of the global livestockpopulation, with still increasing growth rates.However, there is a decelerating trend in almost allspecies except buffalo, poultry, goats and pigs (Figure1.6). The populations of draught animals havewitnessed negative trend. Despite the low productivityand off-take rates, the contribution from animalhusbandry and dairying was 5.9 per cent of the GDPin 2000-2001 at current prices. The Indian livestock

sector employs 18 million peopleand acts as a storehouse of capitaland an insurance against cropfailure. The GDP from the livestocksub-sector has grown at 7.3 per centper annum during 1981-1998, muchfaster than the 3.1 per cent growthof the crop sector. With productionconcentrated among smalllandholders, rearing livestock alsohelp improve income distribution.

DEMOGRAPHICPROFILE

Population levels and growth ratesdrive national consumption of

energy and otherresources, and therefore GHGemissions. India’s population has steadily risen overthe years, crossing the one billion mark in 2000 and

The majority of livestock rearing in India is in smallholdings for sub-sustenance activities, where the animalsare small in size and weight.

Figure 1.6: Changes in livestock population, 1951-1997Source: Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics 2002, Ministry ofAgriculture, Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying,Government of India.

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increasing annually by about 15 million since then.With a population of 846 million in 1991, 914 millionin 1994, and 1027 million in 2001, India is the secondmost populous country in the world. The decadalpopulation growth rate has, however, steadily declinedfrom 24.8 per cent during 1961-1971 to 21.3 per centduring 1991-2001, and is targetted to further declineto 16.2 per cent during 2001-2011, due to variouspolicies of the Government of India towards familywelfare, education, health and the empowerment ofwomen. This has resulted in reducing births by almost40 million over the last 30 years.

India’s population density is very high; the density of264 persons/km

2 in 1991 increased to 324 persons/

km2 in 2001. 95 percent of India’s districts have more

than 50 persons/km2, 80 per cent have above 100

persons/km2and 20 per cent have above 500 persons/

km2, as per the 1991 census (Figure 1.7). Almost all

the coastal districts are very densely populated (above500 persons/km

2), with over a 100 million people

inhabiting them. This, coupled with low per capitaincomes and low adaptive capacity of the majority of

Figure 1.7: Indian population density, 1991.Source: Census of India, 1991.

this population, renders them vulnerable to theimpacts of climate change on coastal areas andfisheries.

India is steadily improving on many criticaldemographic indicators. The average life expectancyat birth has gone up from 32 years in 1951 to over 60years today. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) hasdeclined during 1982-1992 resulting in the reductionof almost one child per woman. The TFR is projectedto decline further from 3.13 during 1996-2001, to 2.52during 2011-2016. The Infant Mortality Rate (IMR),a sensitive indicator of health status as well as ofhuman development, has also declined considerablyfor both males and females. The average literacy ratehas gone up from less than 20 per cent in 1951, tomore than 65 per cent in 2001. The poverty level hasgone down to 26 per cent of the total population in2000 from 51.3 per cent during the 1970s. In spite ofthese achievements India continues to face thepersistent challenge of population and poverty.Around 74 per cent of the population lives in ruralareas, in about 5.5 lakh villages, many with poor

communications and transportfacilities. Reproductive health andbasic health infrastructure requireconsiderable strengthening, despitecommendable achievements in thelast 50 years. Nearly a 100 millionpeople live in urban slums, with betterbut limited access to clean potablewater, sanitation facilities, and healthcare services. In addition to this, thereis the issue of a large-scale migrationof people from rural to urban areas.

India is largely rural and the vastmajority of the population continuesto live in rural areas2 (see footnoteon the next page). The progress ofurbanization has been relativelyslow in India as compared to otherdeveloping countries. The urbanpopulation has increased from 19 percent of the total population in 1965,to 28 per cent in 2000 (Figure 1.8).Nearly two-thirds of the urbanpopulation is concentrated in 317

Class-I cities (population of over 100,000), half of

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which live in 23 metropolitan areas with populationsexceeding one million each. The number of urbanagglomerations/cities with populations of over amillion, has increased from five in 1951, to 23 in 1991,and to 37 in 2001. This rapid increase in urbanpopulation has resulted in unplanned urban

Figure 1.8: Rural-urban population profile of India.Source: Census of India, 1991 and 2001.

2 The conceptual unit for urban areas is a ‘town’, whereas for the rural areas it is a ‘village.’ The classification of an area as an urban unit

in the Census of India (2001) is based on the following definition:a All places declared by the state government under a statute as a municipality, corporation, cantonment board or notified town area

committee, etc.b All other places which simultaneously satisfy or are expected to satisfy the following criteria:

� A minimum population of 5,000;� At least 75 per cent of the male working population engaged in non-agricultural economic pursuits; and� A density of population of at least 400 per square kilometer (1,000 per square mile).

development, changed consumptionpatterns and increased demands fortransport, energy, and otherinfrastructure. This may reflect rapideconomic development andindustrialization on one hand, but alsohigh levels of energy consumptionand emissions on the other.

India’s population pyramid shows abroad base indicative of an expandingpopulation. This structure includes alarge number of children born eachyear. Even if the average number ofchildren falls substantially in thefuture, the young age structure willgenerate continued growth for

decades as a large number of them enter child-bearingage. Even if all Indians plan for two children per family,the population will continue to grow for the next 60 to70 years. This will continue to build up a young agecomposition ‘ bulge’. This growing ‘population bulge’of the younger and older population is pronounced inother Asian countries as well.

HouseholdsIndia had more than 160 million households in 1994.Nearly three-fourths of these households lived in ruralareas accounting for one-third of the total nationalenergy consumption (NSSO 1993-1994; Census ofIndia, 2001). Demographic changes have led to anappreciable rise in the total number of households inIndia with the urban share increasing faster than therural one. There is also an increase in energyconsuming appliances at all levels (Figure 1.9).However, this is an expected and desirable trend fora developing country where appliance-possessionlevels per 1000 households are still abysmally low incomparison to the developed and even manydeveloping countries. For example, only 1.2 per centurban households had a car in 1994, a figure thatGrowing urbanization enhances GHG emissions.

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Figure 1.9: Indian household profile (number per 1000 households).Source: National Sample Survey Organization, Fiftieth and Fifty-fifth round documents, Government of India.

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increased to 2.7 per cent in 2000. Only 6.4 per centurban households had at least one air-conditioner/ air-cooler in 1994 as compared to only 0.5 per cent inrural areas. In 1994 only 3.8 per cent urban householdshad geysers, 4.1 per cent had washing machines, 12.3per cent had refrigerators, 29.6 per cent had liquidpetroleum gas (LPG) for cooking, and 82.8 per centhad electricity for lighting. The correspondingnumbers for the rural households are extremely lowwith only 1.9 per cent households having LPG forcooking, 2.1 per cent having motorcycles/ scooters,15.9 per cent having electric fans, and 37.1 per centhaving electricity for lighting in 1994. In the wake ofrising incomes, the households at all socioeconomiclevels are increasingly using energy consumingappliances. The related GHG emissions will thereforecontinue to rise, even though the energy efficiencies ofthe appliances are continually improving.

The share of katcha (mud huts), semi-pucca andpucca (concrete) dwellings in total rural dwellings was32 per cent, 36 per cent and 32 per cent, respectivelyin 1993. In the urban sector, about 75 per cent ofhouseholds resided in pucca structures. As incomesrise, the demand for basic amenities such as housing,will increase. The construction sector has majorlinkages with the building material industry, sincematerial accounts for more than half the constructioncosts in India. These include cement, steel, bricks,tiles, sand, aggregates, fixtures, fittings, paints,chemicals, construction equipment, petro-products,timber, mineral products, aluminium, glass andplastics. A rise in demand of these materials wouldinfluence future GHG emission trajectories for India.

GOVERNANCE PROFILE

India is the world’s largest democracy; the legislature,the executive and the judiciary constitute the threebuilding blocks of the Indian Constitution. Thelegislature enacts laws, the executive implementsthem, and the judiciary upholds them. The IndianParliament consists of two houses, the Rajya Sabha(Upper House) and the Lok Sabha (Lower House).India has a unique system of federation with a manifestunitary character. The spheres and activities of theunion and the states are clearly demarcated. Theexhaustive union list and the state list placed in theseventh schedule of the Constitution distinctly outline

the respective jurisdiction and authority of the unionand the states. Some of the sectors belonging toenvironment and energy are listed in the concurrentlist, wherein both the union and the state haveconcurrent jurisdiction to enact laws. The Constitutionalso devolves powers to the lower levels—‘lower tothe people’—through the institutions of Panchayatsand Nagar Palikas (local municipal bodies), with aview to ensure administrative efficiency inconcordance with the broader concept of goodgovernance.

The government accords high priority to theenvironment. The MoEF is concerned with planning,promoting, coordinating and overseeing theimplementation of environmental and forestry policiesand programmes. It also serves as the nodal agencyfor international cooperation in the area ofenvironment, including the subject of climate change.Environment ministries/ departments at the state leveldeal with state-specific environmental issues andconcerns. Scientific and technical staff, as well asinstitutions and experts support environmentadministrations at union and state levels.

India has a strong and independent judiciary.Environmental issues have received a further boostthrough the judicial processes, which have recognizedthe citizen’s right to a clean environment as acomponent of the right to life and liberty. Further,matters of public interest are articulated throughvigilant media and the active NGO community.

Environmental governanceEnvironmental concerns are integral to the governanceof India. Prior to the United Nations Conference onHuman Environment, at Stockholm, the Governmentof India had established a National Committee onEnvironmental Planning and Coordination (NCEPC)under the aegis of the Department of Science andTechnology. This commitment was a major step takenby India which was one of the pioneering nations inthe world to amend its constitution to incorporateprovisions to protect its environment. Theconstitutional provisions are backed by a number oflaws—acts, rules and notifications. There are morethan two dozen laws enacted to protect and safeguardIndia’s environment. They cover all aspects of theenvironment—from pollution to conservation, from

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deforestation to nuclear waste disposal. Some of theselaws are precursors to today’s environmentalmovements.

There is a multiplicity of agencies involved in resourcemanagement in India and some overlaps in theirresponsibilities and jurisdiction are common. Theallocation of resources to various sectors is directedby the Planning Commission working within theframework of the five-year plans. Environmentmanagement is guided at the central level by theMoEF and at state levels by the Departments ofEnvironment. Natural resources (like water, forestsand oceans) are managed by separate ministries anddepartments. Inter-ministerial coordinationcommittees and working groups deal with thecooperation and conflict of interest issues. Indeed, ina large country this is perhaps inevitable. Theimplementation of government policies on resourceuse is directed by the multi-tier administrativestructure. The administrative units at the central andstate levels coordinate resource allocation and projectimplementation. However, the implementation of allprogrammes is done at the field level under the overallsupervision of the district collector. Local bodies suchas Panchayats and city councils also have a stake inimplementing various schemes in accordance with the

instructions and directives of the collector, who is acivil servant. Several participatory managementschemes dealing with environmental issues have beensuccessfully carried out at the local level.

Most environmental legislation in India is based onactive State intervention to preserve, protect andimprove the environment. Some important acts relatedto the protection of environment are the AnimalWelfare Act (1960), the Indian Wildlife (Protection)Act (1972), the Water Prevention and Control ofPollution Act (1974), the Forest (Conservation) Act(1980), the Air (Prevention and control of pollution)Act (1981), the Environment (Protection) Act (1986),the Public Liability Insurance Act (1991), and theBiological Diversity Act (2002).

ECONOMIC PROFILE

The GDP (at factor cost and constant prices) grew by7.2 per cent in the financial year 1994. In the decadefollowing the 1990s, the annual average GDP growthrate was 6.6 per cent making it one of the 10 fastestgrowing economies of the world. The keysocioeconomic indicators for 1994 are presented inTable 1.1. Despite this rapid economic growth, theper capita GDP is one of the lowest, and it is a fact that

Table 1.1: National circumstances, 1994.

Note: The monthly per capita poverty lines for rural and urban areas are defined as Rs 228 and Rs 305 respectively for 1994-1995.Source: Economic survey 1995-1996 and 2000-2001. Economic Division, Ministry of Finance, Government of India.

Census of India, 1991 and 2001, Government of India.

Criteria 1994

Population (M) 914Area (Mkm2) 3.28GDP at Factor cost 1994-1995 (1993-1994 prices) Rs billion 8380GDP at Factor cost 1994-1995 (1993-1994 prices) US$ billion 269GDP per capita (1994 US$) 294Share of industry in GDP (%) 27.1Share of services in GDP (%) 42.5Share of agriculture in GDP (%) 30.4Land area used for agricultural purposes (Mkm2) 1.423Urban population as percentage of total population 26Livestock population excluding poultry (M) 475Forest area (Mkm2) 0.64Population below poverty line (%) 36Life expectancy at birth (years) 61Literacy rate (%) 57

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one-fourth of its population of over one billion is stillbelow the poverty line and that 44 per cent of theIndian population has an income below 1 US$/day.Its human development index is only at 0.571,compared to China (0.718) and to developed countriessuch as Germany (0.921), Japan (0.928) and the USA(0.934). The technology achievement index of Indiais at 0.201, which is comparable to China, but farbelow the developed countries (UNDP, 2001).

Social development depends to a great extent oneconomic development. For many decades, Indiafollowed a mixed economy model, where centralplanning coexisted with private enterprise.Agricultural activities, however, have rested almostentirely with private farmers. Industrial investmentwas sought to be controlled through industriallicensing until 1991.

In that year, a major programme of reforms wasinitiated under which industrial licensing was abolishedand trade constraints relaxed, protection reduced and agreater emphasis was laid on the private sector.

GDP and its structureThe Indian economy has made enormous strides sinceindependence in 1947, achieving self-sufficiency infood for a rising population, increasing the per capitaGDP by over three-folds, reducing illiteracy andfertility rates, creating a strong and diversifiedindustrial base, building up infrastructure, developingtechnological capabilities in sophisticated areas and

establishing growing linkages with an integrated worldeconomy.

The primary sector (particularly agriculture) remainsthe bedrock of the Indian economy, although its sharein the total GDP has declined from over 50 per centin the early 1950s to about 23 per cent in 2002-2003.At the same time the shares of manufacturing,transportation, banking and service sectors have doubledin the last 50 years. The growth of the Indian economyhas also been accompanied by a change in its structure(Figure 1.10).

However, much remains to be achieved and theGovernment of India is committed to developmentaltargets that are even more ambitious than the UnitedNations Millennium Development Goals. The highincidence of poverty underlines the need for rapideconomic development to create more remunerativeemployment opportunities, and to invest in socialinfrastructure such as health and education.Notwithstanding the climate-friendly orientation ofthe national policies, the developmental pathways tomeet the basic needs and aspirations of a vast andgrowing population can only be expected to lead toincreased GHG emissions in the future.

The Indian BudgetThe national expenditure can be divided into twobroad categories of ‘plan’ and ‘non-plan’, as well as‘developmental’ and ‘non-developmental’. The planexpenditure generally considers the plan outlays of

the central government andconcerns with the growth andinvestment in the economy, whereasthe non-plan expenditure takes careof the recurring expenditures of thegovernment and the economy.Furthermore, these are split intocapital and revenue expenditures.

Non-plan expenditure has shown anincrease during the past few yearsdue to a significant rise in the shareof defence expenditure and also arise in interest payments, which isroughly about 15 per cent. Also, the

non-plan expenditure on capital account shows anincrease, since there has been an increase in the outlay

Figure 1.10: Sector-wise contribution to GDP (atfactor cost).Source: Economic Survey, 2003.

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for defence capital. The plan expenditure shows agradual increase attributed to an increase in capitalplan expenditure and central assistance to the statesand Union Territories (UTs) among others. There hasbeen a 22 per cent increase in the total expenditure,contributed to by about a 30 per cent increase in theplan expenditure and a 19 per cent increase in thenon-plan expenditure.

The total expenditure as a percentage of the GDP hasshown a gradual decrease since 1980. This may bedue to the active participation of stakeholderorganizations and the initiatives of NGOs. There hasnot been a marked decrease in the period 1991-2000,that may be attributed to the liberalization of theeconomy, wherein the government incurred aconsiderable amount of developmental expenditure.

Revenue receipts have two parts, namely Part A-revenue receipts and Part B-capital receipts. Part Aexplains the estimates of revenue receipts, which aregrouped under two categories, namely: (a) taxrevenue; and (b) non-tax revenue. Part B deals withcapital receipts, which includes market loans, externalassistance, small savings, government providentfunds, special deposits and others. The Gross TaxRevenue (GTR) for the year 2002-2003 has shownan increase of 2,358 billion rupees from 1,983 billionrupees for the year 2000-2001. The rise in GTR forthe year 2002-2003 can be attributed to the growth ofthe GDP, larger revenue generated from union exciseduties, corporation tax and income tax. Similarly, thecapital receipts have also shown increased trend of1,652 billion rupees from 1,294 billion rupees for theyear 2000-2001. The maximum gain is from short-,medium- and long-term loans. The total receiptsaccount for 4,103 billion rupees for the year 2002-2003, as compared to 3,355 billion rupees for the year2000-2001.

There has been an increase in total revenue receipts,which is around 19 per cent, contributed by thecorresponding increase in the tax and non-taxrevenues. The capital receipts have shown an increaseof 28 per cent during the past three years. The totalReceipts collected show an increase of 22 per centover the past three years.

The tax revenue has increased by a considerable

amount during the period 1991-2000. There has beena phenomenal increase in the capital as well as revenuereceipts during the same period. However, the valueof total receipts as a percentage of the GDP hasincreased only marginally, a reflection of the stabilityof the economy on the whole. The proportion of thetax revenue to the total revenue has been increasing quitenoticeably. Also, there is a greater increase in thecontribution of revenue receipts to total receipts, than tocapital receipts from the period 1970-2001.

PovertyDespite the growth of the population from 350 millionin 1947, to more than a billion today, and despite thelow level of economic development at the time ofIndependence, India has made significant progress inpoverty reduction. The percentage of people belowthe poverty line has decreased significantly. Yet, largenumbers of people continue to remain below thepoverty line (Table 1.2).

The poverty line was originally defined in 1961, basedon the income needed to provide adequate calorieintake, two pairs of clothing and a minimal amountof other essentials. This poverty line has been updatedover the years to account for changes in prices. Theestimates are based on large-scale sample surveys ofhousehold consumption carried out periodically byNational Sample Survey Organization (NSSO).

Prior to Independence, India suffered from frequent,devastating famines and stagnation in growth.Therefore, the reduction of poverty and agriculturaldevelopment have been the central themes of India’sdevelopment strategy. Uplifting the poor andintegrating them into the mainstream is a recurrenttheme of India’s five-year plans. Universal access to

Table 1.2: Percentage of people below the povertyline (All India).

Source: Planning Commission, 2000.

Year Rural Urban Total

1973-1974 56.44 49.01 54.881977-1978 53.07 45.24 51.321983 45.65 40.79 44.481987-1988 39.09 38.20 38.861993-1994 37.27 32.36 35.971999-2000 27.0 23.62 26.10

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education is enshrined in the Constitution. India hasestablished a wide array of anti-poverty programmeand much of India’s thinking on poverty has beenmainstreamed internationally. India has alsosuccessfully eliminated famines and severe epidemics.It has made progress in reducing poverty and in its socialindicators, which at the time of Independence in 1947,was among the world’s poorest. Its vibrant democracyand free press have been major factors in theseachievements.

The incidence of poverty began to decline steadilysince the mid-1970s that roughly coincided with arise in the growth of the GDP and agriculture. Since1980, India’s trend of 5.8 per cent growth rate is thehighest among large countries outside East Asia.Empirical analyses suggest that agricultural growthand human development were key factors in thedecline in poverty across the country. However, thedevelopment strategy of the 1970s and 1980s, basedon an extensive system of protection, regulation,expansion of public sector in the economy, and onworsening fiscal deficits in the 1980s, provedunsustainable. In 1991, a crisis in the balance ofpayments and the fiscal situation were met bystabilization and reforms that opened-up the economy,reduced the role of the public sector, and liberalizedand strengthened the financial sector over the nextfew years. These policies generated a surprisinglyquick recovery, and an unprecedented 7.7 per centper annum average growth followed for threeconsecutive years. This led to an increase inproductivity at the macroeconomic level and abooming private sector. During the 1990s, anagricultural growth of 3.3 per cent per annum wasmaintained that was about the same as in the 1980s,but much higher than the declining rate of populationgrowth, estimated at about 1.6 per cent per annum.

Poverty is a global concern, and its eradication isconsidered integral to humanity’s quest for sustainabledevelopment. The reduction of poverty in India is,therefore, vital for the attainment of national as wellas international goals. Poverty eradication has beenone of the major objectives of the developmentplanning process.

The high incidence of poverty underlines the needfor rapid economic development to create more

remunerative employment opportunities and to investin social infrastructure of health and education. Thesedevelopmental priorities would enhance our energyconsumption and therefore related GHG.

ENERGY PROFILE

The fact that energy, as an input to any activity, isone of the important pillars of the modern economy,makes the energy policy inseparable from the entirenational development strategy. The entire fabric ofthe developmental policy contains the elements ofenergy strategy that are rarely out of line with similarpolicies in other economic sectors. Thus, the pathtraversed by the Indian energy policy can be viewedin the light of the overall developmental strategyadopted by India after Independence.

Rapid economic development is dependent uponexpansion of critical infrastructure and growth inindustrial base. Expansion of energy sector is anecessary condition for sustaining growth of thevibrant economy. Since important economic sectorssuch as petroleum, steel, cement, aluminium etc. areenergy intensive, the consumption of energy is boundto increase with the development process. India is atpresent aiming at 8 per cent growth rate, its energyrequirements are bound to increase manifold in thenear future. Thus, increase in green house gasemissions is inevitable in near future. The growth ofenergy, electricity and Indian economy with respectto GDP has been shown in the Figure 1.11.

The energy use during the past five decades hasexpanded, with a shift from non-commercial tocommercial energy. Among the commercial energysources, the dominant source is coal, with a share of47 per cent. The dominance of coal is because Indiais endowed with a significant coal reserve of about221 Bt that is expected to last much longer than itsoil and natural gas reserves. The share of petroleumand natural gas in the total commercial energy usedin the country are 20 per cent and 11 per centrespectively. The total renewable energy consumptionincluding biomass, amounts to about 30 per cent ofthe total energy consumption in India.

The consumption of commercial fuels (coal, oil,natural gas) for production of power and other uses

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has been steadily rising over the years withdomestically abundant coal continuing to be thedominant source. Coal meets 63 per cent of India’stotal energy requirements; followed by petroleumproducts (30%) and natural gas. Nearly 70 per centof the power requirement in India is presently suppliedby thermal power plants. The total coal reserves inIndia are 211 billion tons (MoC, 2000) and by currentestimates these are enough to meet India’s powerneeds for at least another 100 years. The commercialenergy/power consumption in India is distributedamong agriculture, industry, transport, domestic andother sectors. Out of these sectors, agriculture sectorconsumes both electricity as well as petroleumproducts mainly diesel; and the transport sector mainlyuses petrol /diesel. For rail transport, both electricityand diesel are being used. CNG use has started forpublic road transport in some selected cities recently.

In order to meet the growing demandfor oil, India imports around 70 percent of total crude oil requirements.As regards natural gas, theHydrocarbon Vision 2025 indicatesthat the gas reserves in India willdecline by 16 billion m

3 by 2011-

12, with reference to its consumptionof 22.5 billion m

3 in 1998-99. Other

than consumption of fossil fuelenergy, about 90 per cent of the ruraland 30 per cent of urban householdsin India consume a large quantity oftraditional fuels or non-commercial

energy such as fire wood, dung cake, chips etc. Thetotal renewable energy consumption in India includingbiomass amounts to about 30 per cent of the totalenergy consumption in India. To meet the energyneed of rural / remote areas, various initiatives havebeen taken up by GoI to provide electricity throughlocally available renewable energy sources suchas solar, wind, biomass and small hydro schemes.These renewable resources are GHG free energyresources. However, as mentioned earlier, coalbeing abundant, cheap and locally available willbe the mainstay of energy in India in near future toensure energy security.

Primary energy supplyIndia has seen an expansion in the total energy useduring the past five decades, with a shift from non-commercial to commercial sources of energy.Accordingly, the production of commercial sourcesof energy has increased significantly. Table 1.3indicates the trends in production of various primarycommercial energy resources.

Figure 1.11: Growth of energy, electricity and theIndian economy.Source: Economic Survey (1990-2003). Ministry of Finance,Government of India.

Table 1.3: Trends in commercial energy production.

Source: Tenth Five-Year Plan, Planning Commission, Government of India, 2002, pp 764.

Units 1960-1961 1970-1971 1980-1981 1990-1991 2001-2002

Coal Mt 55.67 72.95 114.01 211.73 325.65Lignite Mt 0.05 3.39 4.80 14.07 24.30Crude Oil Mt 0.45 6.82 10.51 33.02 32.03Natural Gas BCM - 1.44 2.35 17.90 29.69Hydro Power BkWh 7.84 25.25 46.54 71.66 82.8Nuclear Power BkWh - 2.42 3.00 6.14 16.92Wind Power BkWh - - - 0.03 1.70

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Figure 1.12: Decadal trend in TPES (Mtoe).Source: Tenth Five-Year Plan, Planning Commission,Government of India, 2002, pp. 765.

The Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) in India hasgrown at an annual rate of 3.4 per cent during 1953-2001, reaching a level of 437.7 Million Tonnes of OilEquivalent (Mtoe) in the year 2001. Much of this growthhas been contributed by commercial energy supply,which grew at 5.3 per cent per annum, in contrast to 1.6per cent per annum growth experienced by non-commercial energy. As a result of this high growth,the share of commercial energy has increased from28 per cent in 1953-1954 to 68 per cent in 2001-2002,with an associated decline in the share of non-commercial energy (Figure 1.12).

The period between 1953-1960 was one of highgrowth, with commercial energy supply growing at6.5 per cent, but the growth slackened slightly duringthe next two decades only to pick up during 1980-

1990. The growth in the past decadehas also been impressive in view ofseveral adverse internationaldevelopments, such as the Asianfinancial crisis of 1997. The decade-wise growth rates in TPES, primarycommercial energy supply andprimary non-commercial energysupply, indicate a progressiveincrease in the commercializationof the Indian energy sector.However, despite reaching suchhigh growth rates in TPES, the per

capita energy consumption at 426 Kilograms per OilEquivalent (Kgoe) in 2001 was one of the lowest inthe world, though it has increased by a factor of 1.71since 1953.

As stated earlier, coal remains the dominant fuel inour energy mix, with a share of 31 per cent, up from26 per cent in 1953-1954 (Figures 1.13 and 1.14).Another fuel that has gained prominence is petroleum.From a share of just 2 per cent in 1953-1954 (as allpetroleum was imported into India at that time), ithas risen to about 27 per cent in 2001-2002. The shareof natural gas has also increased from virtually nil tosix per cent in 2001-02. The geological coal reserves,estimated at 221 Bt are expected to last the longest,given the current consumption and production trends.India is not expected to be self-sufficient inhydrocarbons. India has only 0.4 per cent of theworld’s proven reserves of crude oil, while thedomestic crude oil consumption is estimated at2.8 per cent of the world’s consumption.

Figure 1.13 Trends in supply of primary energy(Mtoe)Source: Tenth Five-Year Plan, Planning Commission,Government of India, 2002, pp. 765.

Figure 1.14 Share in primary energy supply, 2001-2002.Source: Tenth Five-Year Plan, Planning Commission,Government of India, 2002.

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Primary energy demandThe demand for petroleum products was estimated at104.80 Mt during 2001-2002, excluding the liquidfuel requirement for power generation. During thefirst four years of the Ninth five-year plan (1997-2002), the consumption of petroleum products grewat 5.8 per cent. The consumption of petroleumproducts during 2001-2002 was 100.43 Mt therebyregistering a growth of about 4.9 per cent during theNinth Plan period, as against the target of 5.77 percent (Planning Commission, 2002). The lower growthis mainly due to the slowdown in the economy,improvement of roads (including construction ofbridges and bypasses) and the introduction of fuel-efficient vehicles. The demand for coal for domesticuse has fallen drastically. At present Power Sectorconsumes nearly 70 per cent of the coal produced inthe country. Demand for Coal from power sector isexpected to rise further with the execution of on goingcapacity addition programme.

India is a developing country and three-quarters ofthe population lives in rural areas. Vast informal andtraditional sectors with weak markets coexist with thegrowing formal and modern sectors. The traditionalto modern transitional dynamics is expected tocontinue in the foreseeable future, further adding tothe growth in energy demands. The future dynamicsof energy consumption and technology selection invarious sectors in India will thus determine their long-term implications for the energy and environmentalconcerns.

Comparison with the world energyconsumptionIndia ranks sixth in the world in terms of energydemand, accounting for 3.5 per cent of the world’scommercial energy demand in 2001 (Figure 1.15).The world’s total primary commercial energy supply(TPCES) grew at a compounded annual growth rateof 2.4 per cent over the period 1965-2002, with theMiddle East and the Asia-Pacific regions displayingthe highest growth rates. Within the Asia-Pacificregion, India has exhibited one of the fastest growthrates in commercial energy supply. On the whole, theshare of India in the total world commercial energysupply increased from 1.4 per cent in 1965 to 3.5 percent in 2001.

However, despite achieving such high growth ratesin energy consumption, the per capita energyconsumption in India is still low according to globalstandards, and the energy efficiency of the GDP (PPPbasis) is among the best. This holds true even if it iscompared with other countries at a similar stage ofdevelopment (Table 1.4).

POWER SECTOR

The Indian Constitution has included electricity inthe concurrent list, which means that both the Centreand the States share the responsibility for this sector.The very first attempts at introducing legislation inthis sector were made as early as 1887. However, theseattempts were restricted to ensuring safety for

personnel and property. The firstlegislation, i.e., the Indian ElectricityAct, was passed only in 1910,followed by other acts. Untilrecently, the Indian Electricity Act(1910), the Electricity Supply Act(1948), and the ElectricityRegulatory Commissions Act(1998), were the main regulationsfor the sector. The recentintroduction of the Electricity Act(2003), has replaced the previousacts and consolidated them. Apartfrom the national level acts, each

state is governed by its individual legislations. In1991, the Policy on Private Participation in the PowerSector was drafted, which encouraged private

Figure 1.15: India’s share in total world commercialenergy consumption.Source: CMIE, 2003.

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participation in generation. At the same time, theElectricity Laws Amendment Act was passed,which gave more authority to the regional loaddespatch centres. The Electricity Regulation Actof 1998 initiated the setting up of the CentralElectricity Regulatory Commission and also hasprovisions for setting up State Electricity RegulatoryCommissions.

The growth in power generation capacity (Figure 1.16),which increased by almost seven-fold between 1970and 2000, was accompanied by a greater diversity oftechnology mix. The capacity mix in 2000 included asubstantial share of coal (61%) and 24 per cent shareof hydro-based power. Gas-based power generation

capacity gained momentum during 1990s and by theyear 2000 its share in total installed capacity becameeight per cent. Nuclear power has two per cent shareand renewables around 1.5 per cent. In the pastdecade, generation capacity grew at 4.4 per centannually, whereas electricity generation has grown atseven per cent due to improved plant utilization. Ason March 2004, share of coal based thermal capacity is58 per cent, gas/liquid based capacity is 11.5 per cent,hydro share is 26.3 per cent, nuclear share is 2.4 per centand wind power is 1.8 per cent.

There has been significant growth in gas-fired powergeneration capacity in the past decade. With increasein private participation in the power sector, plants are

being built in coastal areas near portswith terminals capable of handlingliquefied natural gas (LNG).However, inland use of importedLNG remains expensive compared tocoal, so natural gas is competitive inthese regions only if transported bypipeline directly from the productionfield. Nuclear power from India’s tennuclear reactors contributes lessthan three per cent to totalgeneration. There has been aconsiderable improvement in plantload factor of these plants duringthe past five years and they now

operate around 80 per cent as compared to60 per cent earlier.

Table 1.4: Economy and energy.

Source: United Nations Human Development Report, 2003.

GDP per CO2 emissions Electricity GDP per unit of Traditional fuel

capita per capita consumption energy use (PPP, consumption (as

(PPP, US$), (Metric tonnes), per capita US$ per kg of oil % of total energy

2001 1999 (kWh), 2000 equivalent), 2000 use), 1997

India 2840 1.1 355 5.5 20.7Developingcountries 3850 1.9 810 4.6 16.7OECD 23363 10.8 7336 4.9 3.3High income 26989 12.4 8651 4.9 3.4Middle income 5519 3.2 1391 4.0 7.3Low income 2230 1.0 352 2.5 29.8World 7376 3.8 2156 4.5 8.2

Figure 1.16: Power generation capacity.Source: Sixteenth Power Survey, Ministry of Power, Governmentof India.

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Despite enhanced competition from other fuels, coalremains the mainstay of power generation. Domesticavailability helps coal to retain a competitiveadvantage over imported fuels that have associatedrisks from fuel security and exchange rateuncertainties in the long run.

Many energy-intensive industries, such as aluminium,steel, and fertilizer have invested in on-site powergeneration, which is growing at an annual rate of eightper cent (CMIE Energy, 2001). Captive powergeneration has grown from about 1.6 GW in 1970 toalmost 18 GW in 2002-2003, with almost half beingcoal based.

Renewables other than large hydro projects have asmall share in the power generation capacity presently.However, India has a significant program to supportrenewable power. A number of facilitating measureshave been enunciated in the Electricity Act 2003 toencourage the growth of renewable energy sector.Section 4 of the Act explicitly states that the CentralGovernment shall, after consultation with the StateGovernments, prepare and notify a National Policypermitting stand alone systems (including those basedon renewable sources of energy and non-conventionalsources of energy) for rural areas.

TRANSPORT

Sustainable urban transport systems should beeconomically and socially equitable as well asefficient. When low-income groups do not have accessto an affordable transportation system, this imposeshardships on them. Their time and energy is wastedin commuting, making them inefficient and thustrapping them in a vicious circle of poverty andinefficiency.

Managing the transport sector while minimizingexternalities such as local pollution, congestion andGHG emissions is a major challenge. Rapidurbanization is now taking place in India. It isexpected that more than 50 per cent of the populationmay reside in urban areas by 2025, a substantialincrease from 28.9 per cent in 1999. An efficienttransport system is a critical infrastructure requirementin cities for greater economic productivity and betterquality of life.

Transport is a critical infrastructure for development.The sector accounts for a major share of consumptionof petroleum products in India. Transport isresponsible for an appreciable share of pollution, bothlocal and global. Local pollutants are concentrated inthe urban areas due to transport activities. Theemission of global pollutants, especially of carbondioxide (CO2) from transport, is also a problem ofincreasing concern in the global environmentalscenario.

The growth of registered motor vehicles in variouscities of India is shown in Table 1.5. Metropolitancities account for about one-third of the total vehiclesin India. These trends indicate that the growth rate ofvehicles could be high as the cities grow. As a numberof towns in India are growing very rapidly, a veryhigh level of vehicle growth can be expected in thefuture. Thus, while the growth of transport inmetropolies slows down, it is growing faster in smallercities. Some cities like Mumbai and Kolkata are verycongested; Chandigarh is spread-out; Pune is alsoless congested. Delhi has a large fleet of buses and agood ratio of road length per person.

REFORMS AND GHG EMISSIONS

The momentous economy-wide reforms initiated inIndia in 1991 embraced a variety of sectors andactivities that emit GHG as well as other pollutants.A significant area in this context is energy, includingelectricity, hydrocarbons and coal.

Growing power, transport and construction sectors aremain sources of CO2 emissions.

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The Energy Conservation Act, 2001The Energy Conservation Act, 2001 was enacted inSeptember 2001 covering all the matters related tothe efficient use of energy and its conservation. ABureau of Energy Efficiency was set up to dischargethe activities entrusted under the Act. The Bureau isexpected to investigate the energy consumption normsfor each energy-intensive industry and encourage theproper labelling of energy consumption indicators onevery electrical appliance. The Bureau will alsoprovide guidelines for energy conservation buildingcodes and take measures to create awareness anddisseminate information for the efficient use of energyand its conservation. It also aims to strengthenconsultancy services in the field of energyconservation and develop testing and certificationprocedures and promote testing facilities forcertification and for energy consumption of equipmentand appliances. Various studies estimate that apotential of 23 per cent energy conservation exists inIndia. Enactment of Energy Conservation Act, 2001would help in tapping this potential and thus, partially,offsetting the environmental impacts of new capacityaddition.

Reforms in the electricity sectorThe Ministry of power has initiated reforms in allaspects of power sector to make the sector viable. Toencourage private sector participation with theobjective of mobilizing additional resources for thepower sector, the ‘Private Power Policy’ wasannounced in 1991.

The Electricity Regulatory Commission Act waspromulgated in 1998 for setting up independentregulatory bodies, both at the central and the statelevel with an important function of looking into allaspects of tariff fixation and matters incidental theretoto make the sector viable.

Renovation and modernization (R&M),distribution reforms and GHG emissionsTo augment T&D networks, system improvements,R&M of old stations for improving efficiency to makeinvestment in energy conservation and environmentperformance schemes, concerted efforts are on forquite some time at various levels within the system.Reforms in R&M of old thermal power stations willresult in improvement in efficiency, that is availability

Table 1.5: Total number of registered motor vehicles in India in 1951-2002.

*Others include tractors, trailors, three wheelers (passenger vehicles) and other miscellaneous vehicles which are not separately classified.@ : Includes omni buses; (P) : Provisional; (R) : Revised.Source: Motor Transport Statistics 2001-2002, Ministry of Road Transport and Highways.

Year as on All Two Cars, jeeps Buses Goods Others*31st March vehicles wheelers and taxis Vehicles

1951 306 27 159 34 82 41956 426 41 203 47 119 161961 665 88 310 57 168 421966 1099 226 456 73 259 851971 1865 576 682 94 343 1701976 2700 1057 779 115 351 3981981 5391 2618 1160 162 554 8971986 10577 6245 1780 227 863 14621991 21374 14200 2954 331 1356 25331996 33786 23252 4204 449 2031 38501997 37332 25729 4672 484 2343 41041998 41368 28642 5138 538 @ 2536 45141999 44875 31328 5556 540 @ 2554 48972000 (R) 48857 34118 6143 562 @ 2715 53192001 (P) 54991 38556 7058 634 @ 2948 57952002 (P) 58863 41478 7571 669 @ 3045 6100

(in thousands)

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of additional power with the same amount of coal burntand, hence, lower greenhouse gas emissions. Similarly,reduction in technical losses will result in availabilityof extra power in the grid thereby partially offsettingthe new power capacity to be added.

The Electricity Act, 2003The Government of India has recently enacted theElectricity Act, 2003. The Act seeks to promotecompetition in the electricity sector in India bydecoupling the generation, transmission, distributionand supply of electricity. The Act also envisages thepreparation of a National Electricity Policy (includingtariff) for the development of the power system basedon the optimal utilization of natural resources. Inconsonance with this policy, the central electricityauthority will prepare the National Electricity Planonce every five years.

The Act has de-licensed the generation of electricityin India. Clause (7) of the Act states that ‘anygenerating company may establish, operate, andmaintain a station without obtaining a license underthis Act if it complies with the technical standardsrelating to the connectivity with the Grid’.

The Act has also heralded a move away from theSingle Buyer model that was followed during the1990s. Under this model, private power producerswere allowed to sell power to SEBs only. However,the financial difficulties faced by the SEBs proved tobe a major constraint for private participation. Underthe new Act, the generator and the consumer can

individually negotiate the power purchase and use thecommon access transmission and distribution systemto meet the contractual obligations.

Thus, the Electricity Act, 2003 maintains the trend inelectricity reforms witnessed the world over byexposing the generation and the supply side of themarket to competition, but placing transmission anddistribution sections under incentive regulation.

The Act has made the tariff policy one of thecornerstones of the regulatory process. Under the Act,either the state or the central regulatory commissionis required to play an important role in tariff settingby the natural monopoly segments of the electricitysupply chain, and ensure that such tariff is set througha transparent process of bidding in accordance withthe guidelines issued by the central government. TheMinistry of Power has recently come out with adiscussion paper on the tariff policy. According tothe paper, the tariff has to take into account theobjectives of: (a) promotion of efficiency; (b)introduction of competition and creating enablingenvironment for the same; (c) rationalization of electricitytariff; (d) protection of consumer interests; and (e)transparency in subsidy administration (MoP, 2003).

Reforms in the hydrocarbons sectorIndia imported 77 per cent of her total petroleumconsumption in 2001-2002 which required substantialfunds. The domestic production failed to keep pacewith the domestic requirement, forcing India to importmore crude oil and petroleum products. The netimports of both crude oil and petroleum productsdeclined to 32 per cent of total consumption in 1984-1985 from the high of 76 per cent in 1980-1981 buthas risen steadily thereafter to reach 77 per cent in2001-2002 (figure 1.17).

Few attempts at reforms were taken in the 1980s, whenthe upstream sector was opened for privateparticipation in order to attract private capital andtechnology to boost indigenous oil production.Economy-wide reforms initiated in 1991 opened upthe middle stream refining also for the private sector.The New Exploration and Licensing Policy (NELP)was launched in 1997 and the new format ofcompetitive bidding and relinquishment of blocks bynational oil companies made this policy an immediateT&D reforms are important components of APDRP.

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success. Presently, NELP is due for its fourth roundand, until now, a 100 blocks have been awarded toboth public and private sector companies.

The government remained in control of thehydrocarbons sector in the form of the AdministeredPricing Mechanism (APM). Various pool accountsensured that the oil companies got a fixed return ontheir investments and the consumers got stable prices.However, mounting concerns about the inefficiencyin the sector, the ever-increasing burden of subsidiesand crude oil import bills, and sufficient refinerycapacity in India propelled the government in 1997to prepare a road map for dismantling the APM witha step-wise approach, reaching a completely free oilmarket by 2002. The prices of industrial fuels suchas naphtha, fuel oil, bitumen and lubricants, were freedand the national oil companies were allowed tocompete in this segment. The last step in dismantlingthe APM was taken in April 2002, when the AnnualBudget 2002-2003 formally announced the move tomarket-based pricing and, since then, the oilcompanies, in consultation with the government, havebeen revising the prices fortnightly in line with theinternational trend.

Petroleum product pipeline policyThe government also announced a new petroleumproduct pipeline policy on a common carrier principle.The policy promotes the product pipelines originatingfrom refineries, pipelines dedicated for supplyingproducts to particular consumers, and pipelines

originating from ports. The policywould reduce road and rail transportand enhance the supply of cleanerfuels and, hence, would reduceemissions of GHG and localpollutants.

Auto Fuel PolicyThe government announced theAuto Fuel Policy in 2003 to addressthe issues of vehicular emissions,vehicular technologies and theprovision of cleaner auto fuels in a

cost-efficient manner, while ensuring the security offuel supply. These measures would result in theefficient combustion of fossil fuels in the roadtransport sector resulting in reduced GHG emissions.Transport sector emissions from Delhi are aninteresting case in point, where the fuel switch toCompressed Natural Gas (CNG) from diesel in publicvehicles has reduced CO2 emissions. Apart from Delhi,CNG in respect of public passenger transport, hasalso been introduced in Mumbai.

Reforms in the coal sectorTowards reforming the coal sector, the governmenthas recently constituted the Expenditure ReformsCommission (ERC). The major recommendations ofthe commission are:

� Remove all restrictions on the entry of the privatesector in exploration and production of coal byamending the Coal Mines Nationalization Act,1973.

Delhi has world’s largest CNG-based public transport fleet.

Figure 1.17: Share of petroleum imports in totalconsumption.Source: Indian Petroleum and Natural Gas Statistics, 2003,MoPNG, Government of India.

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� Amend the Coal Bearing Areas (Acquisition andDevelopment) Act, 1957 and set up an independentregulatory body to allow for a level playing fieldto the private sector.

� Restructure the industry by doing away with theholding company (CIL) and Coal Controller,among other things.

� Amend the Coal Mines (Conservation andDevelopment) Act, 1974, to place responsibilityon both public and private sectors for scientificmining, conservation, safety and health, protectionof environment, etc.

� Permit states to develop lignite resources outsidethe command areas of the Neyveli LigniteCorporation.

� Reorient the overall strategy to take intoconsideration the role of coal in energy security.

Prior to 1 January 2000, the central government wasempowered under the Colliery Control Order, 1945,to fix the grade-wise and colliery-wise prices of coal.However, following the Colliery Control Order, 2000,the prices for all grades of coking and non-cokingcoal have been deregulated. The current basic priceof coal varies from Rs 1,450 per tonne to Rs 250 pertonne for different grades.

INDIA’S COMMITMENT TO CLIMATECHANGE AND SUSTAINABLEDEVELOPMENT

India accords great importance to climate change andher commitment to UNFCCC is reflected in thevarious national initiatives for sustainabledevelopment and climate change. As a commitmentto the UNFCCC, India recently hosted the COP-8 atNew Delhi. India has reasons to be concerned aboutthe adverse impacts of climate change, since the vastpopulation depend on climate sensitive sectors. TheGovernment of India makes investments for thepromotion of research and development on acontinuous basis in diverse areas of the environment,including climate change. Environmental protectionand sustainable development have emerged as keynational priorities and are manifested in India’sapproach to socioeconomic development and povertyeradication.

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T he UNFCCC was adopted in 1992, inrecognition of the concern that food securityand economic development in the future may

be adversely affected as a result of the discerniblechange observed in the climate since pre-industrialtimes. This change is mainly attributed to thecontinuously increasing concentration of GHGs in theatmosphere resulting from anthropogenic activities

1.

Therefore, central to any climate change study is theassessment of GHG inventory that identifies andquantifies a country’s primary anthropogenic sourcesand sinks of GHGs.

The UNFCCC stipulates that each party to theconvention should develop, periodically update,publish and make available to the Conference ofParties, a national inventory of anthropogenicemissions by sources and removals by sinks of allGHGs not controlled by the Montreal Protocol, usingcomparable methodologies. The Convention alsonotes that the largest share of historical and currentglobal emissions of GHGs has originated in developedcountries and that the share of the global emissionsoriginating in developing countries will grow to meettheir social and developmental needs.

India has ratified the Convention in November 1993.As a non-Annex 1 nation under the Convention, theinventory information to be provided by India isaccording to the guidelines stipulated for Parties notincluded in Annex I to the UNFCCC. In this chapter,the information on India’s GHG emissions by sourcesand removals by sinks for the base year 1994, ispresented to the extent India’s capacities permit, andis in accordance with the Articles 4.1a and 12.1a ofthe Convention. For a transparent and comparableemission inventory, the Revised 1996 IPCCGuidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories

(IPCC, 1996) has been used in the present exercise.The sources from which the emissions have beenestimated include energy, industrial processes,agriculture, land use, land-use change and forestryand waste. The gases covered are CO2, methane (CH4)and nitrous oxide (N2O).

The rigour of any emission inventory relies on thequality of its activity data, the emission coefficientsand inventory methodologies used. In the presentinventory assessment, the authenticity of data isensured by sourcing the primary activity data forvarious sectors from reports of the concernedgovernment ministries, such as the Ministry of Coal,Oil and Natural Gas, Coal Mining, Road Transportand Highways, Heavy Industries and PublicEnterprises, Railways, Civil Aviation, Agriculture,Steel, Science and Technology, and others (seeReferences). Activity data, wherever possible havebeen cross - verified from multiple sources including,government documents, publications of industryassociations and research institutions of repute, andin some cases, directly from the manufacturers. Animportant contribution of this nationalcommunications exercise is the estimation ofindigenous emission coefficients in several key sectorsthrough direct field measurements using rigorousscientific methodologies. The inventory assessmenthas contributed to the accuracy and reliability of theGHG budget estimates reported here.

For estimating GHG inventories, the IPCC (1996Guidelines) Tier-I, II and III approaches were used.The choice of the approach for a sector, depended onthe quality and availability of activity data andemission coefficient as required by each approach.For example, in the case of coal consumption in theenergy sector, Tier-II approach was applied, wherein

1 Since 1750, globally, concentration of CO2, CH4 and N2O have increased by 31,151 and 17 % respectively (IPCC, 2001a).

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fuel consumption data at sub-sectoral levels were used along withmeasured emission coefficients fordifferent grades of domestic coal.Alternatively, for petroleumproducts combustion, the Tier-Iapproach was employed since thedefault emission coefficients forthese fuels are fairly accurate due toconsistent quality of these fuelsacross the globe. In the case ofmethane emissions from entericfermentation from animals, a Tier-II approach wasused, whereby the cattle were segregated into dairyand non-dairy segments and the emission coefficientswere estimated for each age group.

Inventory estimates are inherently uncertain and arehigh due to the multiplicative effect of theuncertainties associated with the emission coefficientand activity data. The uncertainty in emissioncoefficient estimates arises from measurementinaccuracies and variable background conditions. Incase of activity data, the key factors contributing touncertainty are the aggregation errors, incompletenessof data and mismatch of data definitions. Indeveloping countries, the accuracies are also addedby the paucity of data for informal, traditional, andunrecognized sectors. Considerable uncertainties thuswould exist in the present emission estimates of GHGsfrom various sectors.

INDIA’S GREENHOUSE GASINVENTORY FOR THE YEAR 1994— A SUMMARY

In 1994, the aggregate emissions from theanthropogenic activities in India amounted to 7,93,490Gg of CO2; 18,083 Gg of CH4; and 178 Gg of N2O. Interms of CO2 equivalent2 (Tg-CO2 eq.), theseemissions amounted to 12,28,540 Gg. The per capitaCO2 emissions were 0.87 t-CO2 in 1994, four per centof the US per capita CO2 emissions in 1994, eight percent of Germany, nine per cent of UK, 10 per cent of

2 Each of the GHGs has a unique average atmospheric lifetime over which it is an effective climate-forcing agent. Global warmingpotential (GWP) indexed multipliers have been established to calculate a longevity equivalency with carbon dioxide taken as unity. TheGWP of methane and nitrous oxide are 21 and 310, respectively (IPCC, WKI, 1996). By applying unique GWP multipliers to the annualemissions of each gas, an annual CO2 equivalency may be summed that represents the total GWP of all climate-forcing gases considered.

Figure 2.1: Relative emissions of GHGs from Indiain 1994.

Japan and 23 per cent of the global average. CO2

emissions contributed, 65 per cent of total GHGs; CH4

contributed 31 per cent and four per cent of emissionswere contributed by N2O (Figure 2.1). On a sectoralbasis (Figure 2.2), 7,43,820 Gg CO2-eq. of GHGswere emitted from energy sector (61 per cent);3,44,485 Gg of CO2-eq. emissions came from theagriculture sector (28 per cent); 1,02,710 Gg of CO2-eq. were contributed by the industrial processes (8per cent); 23,233 Gg from waste disposal (2 per cent)activities and 14,292 Gg were generated from landuse, land-use change and forestry sector (1 per cent).Table 2.1 summarizes the GHG emissions fromvarious sectors by sources and removals by sinks forIndia for the base year 1994.

7,43,820 Gg of CO2-eq GHGs, i.e., 61 per cent of thetotal GHG, emitted from all energy activities weremainly from the combustion of fossil fuels. Among

Figure 2.2: Percentage contribution of differentsectors to the total GHG emissions.

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Table 2.1: India’s initial national greenhouse gas inventories of anthropogenic emissions by sources andremovals by sinks of all greenhouse gases not controlled by the Montreal Protocol for the base year 1994.

# Not counted in the national totals.*Converted by using GWP indexed multipliers of 21 and 310 for converting CH4 and N2O respectively.

GHG source and sink categories CO2 CO2 CH4 N2O CO2eq.(Gg per year) emissions removals emissions*

Total (Net) National Emission 817023 23533 18083 178 1228540

1. All Energy 679470 2896 11.4 743820Fuel combustionEnergy and transformation industries 353518 4.9 355037Industry 149806 2.8 150674Transport 79880 9 0.7 80286Commercial/institutional 20509 0.2 20571Residential 43794 0.4 43918All other sectors 31963 0.4 32087 Biomass burnt for energy 1636 2.0 34976Fugitive Fuel EmissionOil and natural gas system 601 12621Coal mining 650 13650

2. Industrial Processes 99878 2 9 1027103. Agriculture 14175 151 344485

Enteric Fermentation 8972 188412Manure Management 946 1 20176Rice Cultivation 4090 85890Agricultural crop residue 167 4 4747Emission from Soils 146 45260

4. Land use, Land-use change and Forestry* 37675 23533 6.5 0.04 14292Changes in forest and other woody biomass stock 14252 (14252)Forest and grassland conversion 17987 17987Trace gases from biomass burning 6.5 0.04 150Uptake from abandonment of managed lands 9281 (9281)Emissions and removals from soils 19688 19688

5. Other sources as appropriate and to theextent possible

5a. Waste 1003 7 23233Municipal solid waste disposal 582 12222Domestic waste water 359 7539Industrial waste water 62 1302Human sewage 7 2170

5b. Emissions from Bunker fuels # 3373 3373Aviation 2880 2880Navigation 493 493

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the fossil fuels, coal combustion had a dominant shareof emissions, amounting to about 4,75,530 Gg of CO2-eq GHGs i.e., about 64 per cent of all energyemissions. The non-CO2 emissions in this categoryare from biomass burning and fugitive emissionsreleased from coal mining and handling of oil andnatural gas systems. An analysis of the distributionof the total CO2-eq emissions across all the subcomponents of all energy activities (Figure 2.4)indicates that the major emitters were energy andtransformation industries (47 per cent) constitutingmainly electric power generation, industry (20 percent) and the transport sector (11 per cent).

Of the total GHGs released in 1994, eight percenti.e., 1,02,710 Gg CO2-eq were from the industrialprocess sector. These include CO2, CH4 and N2Oemissions from production processes of chemicals,metals, minerals, cement, lime, soda ash, ammonia,nitric acid, calcium carbide, iron and steel, ferroalloys, aluminium, limestone and dolomite use. Ofthe total CO2-eq GHGs emitted from the industrialprocesses, 42 per cent was from iron and steel

production, 30 per cent from cement production, 14per cent from ammonia production, 6 per cent fromlimestone and dolomite use and the rest of theprocesses contributed the remaining 8 per cent.

In 1994, the agriculture sector contributed 29 per centof the total CO2-eq GHG emissions, amounting to3,44,485 Gg CO2-eq. The agriculture sector primarilyemitted CH4 and N2O. The CO2 emissions due to theenergy use in the agriculture sector are accounted foras a part of all energy emissions. The emissionssources accounted for in the agriculture sector areenteric fermentation in livestock, manuremanagement, rice cultivation, agricultural soils andburning of agricultural crop residue. The bulk of theGHG emissions from the agriculture sector were fromenteric fermentation (59 per cent), followed by ricepaddy cultivation (23 per cent), and the rest werecontributed by manure management, burning ofagriculture crop residue and application of fertilizersto soils.

Figure 2.3: Relative GHG emissions from energysector activities in 1994.

Figure 2.4: Relative GHG emissions from industrialprocesses in 1994.

Figure 2.5: Relative GHG emissions fromagriculture sector activities in 1994.

Figure 2.6: Relative GHG emissions from land use,land-use change and forestry sector activities in1994.

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GHG emissions from land use, land-use change andforestry (LULUCF) sector are an aggregation ofemissions from changes in forests and other woodybiomass stock, forest and grassland conversion,abandonment of managed lands and forest soils. Thenet CO2-eq. emission from this sector was 14,292 Gg,which includes CO2 emission and sequestration, aswell as the emission of CH4 and N2O. The LULUCFsector emitted 14,142 Gg net CO2 in 1994. Methaneand N2O emissions from this sector in terms of CO2

equivalent, were 136.5 Gg CO2-eq and 12.4 Gg CO2-eq respectively.

The disposal of waste and the processes employedto treat these wastes give rise to GHG emissions. Thetwo main sources of GHGs from the waste sector inIndia are municipal solid waste disposal and waste-water handling for commercial and domestic sectors.The collection of waste primarily takes place in largecities. In smaller cities and towns, waste decomposesunder aerobic conditions and thus, methane is notemitted. Industrial waste-water in India is treated asper the mandate of the MoEF by large industrial units.The total GHGs emitted from the waste sector in 1994was 23,233 Gg CO

2-eq, which is 2 per cent of the

total national CO2 equivalent emissions. Out of this,

the major contribution was from municipal solid wastedisposal activities (53 per cent), followed by domesticwaste water, which contributed 32 per cent of the totalGHG emissions from the sector (see Figure. 2.7).

GAS BY GAS EMISSIONINVENTORY

The following section details a gas-by-gas inventoryof CO2, CH4 and N2O emitted from the all energy,industrial processes, agriculture, LULUCF and wastesectors.

CO2 emissionsCO2 emissions from all energy, industrial processesand LULUCF activities constituted 65 per cent of thetotal GHG emissions in 1994. The relativecontribution of the three activities to the net CO2

released from India were 85 per cent, 13 per cent and2 per cent respectively (Figure 2.8). CO2 emissionsfrom the energy sector include those from fossil fuelcombustion. CO2 emissions from biomass are treatedas carbon-neutral at the combustion point. Change in

Figure 2.8: Relative CO2 emissions from differentsectors in 1994.

biomass is accounted separately in the LULUCFsector. The industrial processes, which includesprocesses like iron and steel manufacturing andcement production are also major sources of CO2

emission. The total CO2 emissions from India in 1994were 8,17,023 Gg and removals by sinks were around23,533 Gg (Table 2.2).

EnergyFossil fuels contributed 95 per cent of the totalcommercial energy consumed in India in 1994, withthe remaining 5 per cent derived from sources like

Figure 2.7: Relative GHG emission (in terms of CO2

eq.) from waste disposal activities.Note: MSW: Municipal Solid Waste, DMW: Domestic Waste-water, IWW: Industrial Waste Water and HS: Human Sewage.

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hydropower, nuclear and renewable energy (PlanningCommission, 2002). Fossil fuels combustioncontributed 91 per cent to total CO2 emissions, withcoal accounting for nearly 62 per cent.

Fossil fuel CombustionDuring fossil fuel combustion, the carbon stored isemitted almost entirely as CO2. The amount of carbonin fuels per unit of energy content varies significantlyby fuel type for example coal contains the highestamount of carbon per unit of energy, while petroleumproducts in comparison have about 25 per cent lesscarbon than coal and natural gas about 45 per cent less.

In India, domestic coal is the main energy source.

Coal contributed 62 per cent to the total CO2 emissionsin 1994. In comparison, petroleum productscontributed 31 per cent and natural gas seven per cent.

Table 2.2: CO2 emissions from India in 1994

# not included in national totals.

The power sector is the highest contributor to IndianGHG emissions.

GHG source and sink CO2 (Emissions) CO2 (Removals)categories (Gg)Total CO2 817023 23533

1. All Energy 679470Energy and transformation industries 353518Industry 149806Transport 79880Commercial/institutional 20509Residential 43794All other sectors 31963

2. Industrial Processes 99878Cement production 30767Lime production 1901Lime stone and dolomite use 5751Soda ash use 273Ammonia production 14395Carbide production 302Iron and steel production 44445Ferro alloys production 1295Aluminium production 749

3. Land use, Land-use change and Forestry 37675 23533Changes in forest and other woody biomass stock 14252Forest and grassland conversion 17987Uptake from abandonment of managed lands 9281Emissions and removals from soils 19688

4. Emissions from Bunker fuels # 3373Aviation 2880Navigation 493

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Keeping in view the importance of coal in the Indianenergy system, and the fact that there is a widevariation in the ash content, moisture content andpetrographic makeup of Indian coal, it is vital toestimate the Net Calorific Values (NCVs) and CarbonEmission Factors (CEF) used for estimating the CO2

emission due to coal combustion under indigenousconditions. In India the coal is classified in three maincategories — coking, non-coking and lignite. TheNCV for each has been estimated separately, ratherthan assuming the identical average values for eachcategory. The NCV values of the coals were derivedfrom the Gross Calorific Value (GCV) of the fuel andits available hydrogen content. Both these parametersvary with the type, grade and maturity (rank) of coal.

Data on proximate, ultimate and heat value of differenttypes of coal were collected from primary sourcesand secondary sources such as technical reports ofCentral Fuel Research Institute, a premier institute inIndia researching on coal for many decades. Theanalysis used the data collected over the past one anda half decades. Carbon content of the different coals– were measured on – a dry mineral matter free basis(dmmf) by taking into consideration the moisturecontents and Gross Calorific Value (GCV). For non-coking coal, data were segregated on the basis of majorcoalfields, like Eastern coalfields, Western coalfields,South Eastern Coalfields, Central Coalfields. The NCVwas calculated using the formula, NCV= GCV- 53 xH, where H is the available hydrogen. GCV and henceNCV vary with type and grade of coal and depend onthe maturity (rank).

Ash and moisture contents of coal have significantinfluence on the NCV estimates. The internationallyaccepted norm of estimating NCV at 96 per centmoisture level of coal, called capacity moisture, wasused in the present estimates. The ratio of Carbon to

heat content (NCV) was computed to arrive at theCEF. The NCVs used in the Indian estimates is givenin Table 2.3.

In order to estimate CO2 emissions from the burningof petroleum and natural gas, the IPCC defaultemission coefficients were used. Time and resourcelimitations did not permit the measurements to becarried out for refineries that convert crude to refinedproducts. In the case of petroleum products and naturalgas, the use of default emissions would be fairlyaccurate due to relatively low variation in quality ofthese fuels across the globe, as compared to coal. Thefuture refinements of inventory estimations wouldconsider specific measurements to assess the CO2

emission factors from petroleum as well as refinedproducts, such as liquefied petroleum gas, gasoline,naphtha, jet kerosene, other kerosene, diesel oil,residual fuel oil, lubricants and other oils.

CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion in varioussectors are presented next.

Energy and Transformation IndustriesCO2 emissions from the energy and transformationindustries mainly include the power generation andpetroleum refining industries. These sectors togetheremitted 3,53,518 Gg of CO2 in 1994.

IndustryCO2 emissions from the industry sector are estimatedby taking into account emissions from paper, sugar,cement, iron and steel, textile, bricks, fertilizer,chemical, aluminium, ferroalloys, non-ferrous, foodand beverages, leather and tannery, jute, plastic,mining and quarrying, rubber, and all other industries.Coal and petroleum oil products are used in theseindustries as energy sources in substantial quantities.The total CO2 emitted from this sector in 1994 was1,49,806 Gg.

CommercialEnd-use activities like cooking, lighting, spaceheating, space cooling, refrigeration and pumpingcharacterize the commercial sector. The fuelsconsumed by the commercial sector are electricity (forlighting, heating, cooling, and pumping), LPG (forcooking), kerosene (for lighting and cooking), diesel(for generating power for pumping and lighting), coal,

Table 2.3: India-specific CO2 emission coefficients.

India-specificNCV CEF

TJ/Kt t CO2/TJCoking coal 24.18+0.3 25.53Non-coking coal 19.63+0.4 26.13Lignite 9.69+0.4 28.95

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fuels for cooking and lighting needsin Indian urban and ruralhouseholds. The total CO2 emissionfrom this sector in 1994 was 4,37,94Gg. This excludes CO2 emissionfrom biomass burning, sincebiomass is considered to be carbonneutral.

TransportAnother major sector contributing toGHG emissions is transportation,which includes road, rail, aviationand navigation. The total CO2

emissions from this sector in 1994 were 79,880 Gg.Among transport sub-sectors, road transport is themain source of CO2 emissions and accounted fornearly 90 per cent of the total transport sectoremissions in 1994. Road transport is characterizedby heterogeneous gasoline-fuelled light vehicles anddiesel-fuelled heavier vehicles. According to thesurvey by the Indian Market Research Bureau onbehalf of the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas(MoPNG, 1998), the transport sector consumed nearlyall (98.3 per cent) of gasoline in the country (seeFigure 2.10 and Table 2.4). The share of vehicle

Figure 2.10: All-India end-use consumption of (a)gasoline and (b) diesel use in the transport sector.Source: Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government ofIndia, 2002.

(a)

(b)

charcoal and fuel wood (for cooking). The total CO2

emission from this sector in 1994 was 2,05,09 Gg.

ResidentialEnergy consumed in the domestic or the residentialsector is primarily for cooking, lighting, heating andhousehold appliances. The energy ladder forresidential cooking in India follows the classic patternvis-à-vis income, moving from the bottom-rungbiomass (dung cakes, crop residues and fuel wood)to coal, kerosene, LPG and electricity. There aresignificant urban-rural differences in the energyprofile of households, in terms of supply as well asconsumption. Figure 2.9 gives the share of various

Figure 2.9: Share of fuels for cooking and lighting inrural and urban households.Source: Fifty-fourth National Sample Survey conducted byNational Sample Survey Organization, 1998-1999.

Improved chullah.

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categories in gasoline consumption was two-wheelers(50.8 per cent), car/taxi (31.5 per cent) and three-wheelers (13.4 per cent).

Diesel is consumed in both private and public modesof transport (trucks, buses, jeeps, cars/taxis, etc.), aswell as in agriculture (tractors, irrigation pumps, etc.).The all-India survey (MoPNG, 1998) indicated that61.8 per cent of the diesel sold through the networkof retail outlets was consumed by road transport.Shares of different end-uses in diesel and gasolineconsumption are detailed in Table 2.4 and theconsumption in Figure 2.11.

Automotive exhaust emissions are amongst the majorsources of toxic pollutants, besides producing GHGemissions like CO2, CH4 and N2O. The vehicularemissions norms, first introduced in India in 1991-1992, were focused on reducing the toxic pollutants.The norms were subsequently upgraded in 1996 and2000. Presently, the emission norms equivalent toEuro — I prevail in the entire country, and Euro — IIin the metropolitan cities. The Government of Indiahas made significant policy interventions, including

Table 2.4: Share of diesel and gasoline demandfrom retail outlets in various sectors.

Source: MoPNG (1998), All India Survey of Gasoline and DieselConsumption. A survey conducted by the Indian Market ResearchBureau for the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas,Government of India, New Delhi.

End-use Segment (%)

DIESEL1. Road Transport

Car / Taxi 4.8Jeep 5.2Three-wheeler 1.2Truck 34.7LCV 6.7Bus 9.2Sub-Total 61.8

2. AgricultureTractor 14.3Pump set 5.2Tiller/Thresher/Harvester 4.0Sub - Total 23.5

3. OthersPower generation 7.8Industrial applications 3.0Others / Miscellaneous 3.9Sub-Total 14.7Total 100.0

GASOLINE1. Road Transport Sector

Two-wheelers 50.8Three-wheelers 13.4Car / Taxi 31.5LCV 1.1Jeep 1.2Other Vehicles 0.3Sub-total 98.3

2. Other usesTruck 0.1Tractor 0.4Pump set 0.2Power 0.3Others 0.7Sub-total 1.7

Total 100.0

The technology-level activity data for the road transportsector requires refinement.

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continuous improvements in theemissions norms to alleviate the airquality in the urban centres in thewake of rapidly growing vehicularpopulation. The recent years havewitnessed a phenomenal growth inroad transport vehicles (see Table2.5). This increasing trend in vehiclepopulation is expected to continue,with rising incomes and enhancedvehicular choices before theconsumers. The emissions of localpollutants in urban centres havetherefore, continued to grow along

with the rising GHG emissions.

The deterioration in urban air quality led to severalresponse measures, like the introduction of CNGvehicles, improvement in auto fuel quality andenhancement of road infrastructure. The Governmentof India announced the Auto Fuel Policy in 2003,which comprehensively addresses the issues ofvehicular emissions, vehicular technologies and theprovision of cleaner auto fuels in a cost-efficientmanner while ensuring the security of fuel supply.The policy includes the road map for reduction inemission norms for new vehicles (Table 2.5).Besides proposing the enhanced quality of liquidfuels, the policy encourages the use of CNG/LNGin the cities affected by high vehicular pollutionto enable the vehicle owners a wider choice of fueland technology. The policy envisages theaccelerated development of alternate technologies,like battery and fuel cell-powered vehicles and acomprehensive programme for research anddevelopment support and other measures for zeroemissions vehicles. The implementation of the AutoFuel Policy would accrue significant improvementin local air quality and also contribute to the reductionin emissions of GHG.

The 1994 emissions inventory assessment, had to takeinto account a mix of vehicle technologies that wasdistinctly different from the present vehicular stock.The emission coefficients for different types of vehicleusing gasoline and diesel were estimated by assessingemissions from the vehicles of 1994 vintage, a mixof vehicles and road conditions similar to those in1994 (Table 2.6).

Fig. 2.11: Relative emission of CO2 from variousindustrial processes in India in 1994. Others includeCO2 emissions from soda ash and carbideproductions.

Table 2.5: Road Map for New Vehicles.

Source: Auto Fuel Policy, Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas,Government of India, New Delhi, October 2003.

* EURO II equivalent Indian vehicular emissions norms+ To be reviewed in 2006 for enhanced implementation! Bharat Stage II norms to come into force for two wheelers and3 wheelers manufactured on or after 1.4.2005

Coverage Passenger 2 and 3Cars, light wheelers

commercialvehicles &heavy duty

dieselvehicles

!

All-India Bharat Stage Bharat StageII

* - 1.4.2005 II - 1.4.2005

EURO IIIEquivalent -1.4.2010

11 major Bharat Stage Bharat Stagecities (Delhi / II - 1.4.2003 III

+ - Preferably

NCR, Mumbai, from 1.4.2008Kolkata, EURO III But not laterChennai, Equivalent - than 1.4.2010Bangalore, 1.4.2005Hyderabad,Ahmedabad, EURO IVPune, Surat, Equivalent -Kanpur & Agra) 1.4.2010

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Cement ManufactureCement production in India has risen from about45 Mt in 1990 to about 106 Mt in 2001 (CMA,2002), however the per capita cement consumptionin India remains among the lowest in the world(100 kg per capita as compared to a world averageof 267 kg per capita).

In view of the significant contribution of CO2

emission from cement manufacturing process, anindigenous CO2 emission coefficient wasdeveloped (Box 2.1). Clinker samples werecollected from various plants of differenttechnologies and sizes. Based on the analysis of thisdata, the average CO2 emission coefficient for cementproduction process in 1994 was estimated to be 0.537tonne CO2 per tonne of clinker for India. Using this,the total CO2 emitted in the country in the year 1994,was estimated to be 30,767 Gg.

Lime productionLime is used in the steel and construction industry,pulp and paper manufacturing, sugar production, thefertilizer industry, and for water and sewage treatmentplants. It is manufactured by heating limestone, mostlyCaCO3, in kilns, producing calcium oxide (CaO) andCO2, which is normally emitted into the atmosphere.The lime-producing sector in India consists ofunconsolidated, small-scale enterprises. The mainconstraint for GHG inventory estimation for thissector is the paucity of data. The industries consideredas ‘high lime industries’, not using limestone as flux,are sugar and paper, and emissions from limeproduction in these industries have been accountedfor under this sector (Indian Mineral Year Book,1995). The lime content (or CaO) in limestonegenerally varies between 40 per cent and 50 per cent.As all varieties of limestone are used in lime kilns,the average lime content in limestone, for the purposeof assessing the quantity of lime produced, has beenestimated at 45 per cent. Under these assumptions,the amount of CO2 emitted in 1994 from limestoneproduction is estimated to be 1901 Gg.

Limestone and dolomite useLimestone (CaCO3) and dolomite (Ca Mg (CO3)2) arebasic raw materials used by a wide variety ofindustries, including construction, agriculture,chemicals and metallurgical industries. For example,

Table 2.6: India-specific CO2 emission coefficientsdeveloped for the road transport sector.

Categories t CO2/TJ

Gasoline2W/3W 43.9 ± 7.3Car/Taxi 61.5 ± 4.0

Diesel OilMCV/HCV 71.4 ± 0.55LCV 71.4 ± 0.5

All other sectorsAll other sectors cover those areas of the economythat are not included elsewhere for the purpose ofaccounting energy consumption. The total emissionof CO2 from this sector in 1994 is estimated to be31,963 Gg.

Industrial ProcessesEmissions are produced as a by-product of manynon-energy related activities, such as industrialprocesses that chemically transform raw materials.The major industrial processes that emit CO2,include cement production, iron and steelproduction, lime production, lime stone anddolomite use, soda ash manufacture andconsumption, ammonia production, ferroalloysproduction, aluminium and manganese foundries,and calcium carbide production.

The total CO2 emissions from the industrial processesin India were estimated at 99,878 Gg in 1994. Cementand iron and steel manufacturing processes were thekey source categories for CO2 emissions in theindustrial processes sector. These two contributednearly three-quarters, i.e., about 75,212 Gg CO2.Emissions from these sectors were estimatedfollowing the IPCC Tier-II methodology. The rest ofthe emissions from ammonia production, limestoneand dolomite use, production of lime, ferroalloys,manufacturing, aluminium and manganese foundriesand others were estimated using the IPCC Tier-Imethodology. The relative emission of CO2 from theindustrial process sector is shown in Figure 2.11. CO2

emissions from metal production had a dominant shareat 46 per cent, the production of mineral productscontributed 39 per cent and the remaining werecontributed by the chemical industry.

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Carbon dioxide emissions in the cementmanufacturing process originate from the calcinationof limestone at very high temperatures. The CO2

emission factor is estimated from this process byusing CaO content and CKD (Clinker-to-Dust) loss.Magnesium carbonate (MgCO3) present in limestonealso liberates CO2 during calcination. Therefore theMgO content of the limestone used also needs to beestimated. The CaO content in Indian clinkersnormally varies from 62 to 66 per cent. The CaOcontent from each plant varies because the sourcematerials are different. The MgO content, in Indianclinkers, varies from 0.5 to 6.0 per cent. This valueis dependent on the raw material source. ThoughIPCC considers a default cement kiln dust (CKD)loss at 2.0 per cent of clinker produced, however,due to the stringent control on particle emission byIndian pollution control boards (PCBs), most of thecement kilns are provided with appropriate pollutioncontrol measures to keep the CKD within theprescribed limits of as low as 0.03 per cent.

For estimating the CO2 emission coefficient dueto the manufacturing of cement, clinker sampleswere collected from various plants of differenttechnologies and analyzed using the X-RayFluorescence method (XRF) for CaO and MgOfor on-line process control. Hourly cementsamples were pooled in each shift, and analyzedusing the wet method for CaO and MgO contents.The yearly average values of CaO and MgOcontents were then used to estimate the emission

Box 2.1: Determination of CO2 emission coefficient from cementmanufacturing process

factor. Using these methods the emission factor,which is a product of CO2, generated from CaO andMgO, the content of the clinker and the correctionfactor for CKD losses from the plant was estimatedby using the equation:

Emission factor = (Fraction of CaO content inclinker * 0.7848 + Fraction of MgO content inclinker * 1.0915) *(1+ CKD losses from the plant)

The average CaO and MgO content of the rawmaterial was found to be 64.7 per cent and 2.01 percent respectively in 2001-2002 which have beenactually maintained more or less at the same level,right from inception. However, as the technologyof production has changed from the wet to semi-wet, to the dry process, the CKD losses have reducedfrom a level of 2 per cent in 1980, to an average of0.025 in 2001-2002. By interpolation between theseperiods with an average of 1.0 per cent of thecapacities created from 1980 up to 1985; 0.5 percent of the capacities created from 1985 to 1990; 0.05per cent of the capacities created from 1990 to 1995;and 0.05 per cent of the capacities created from 1995to 2000; and 0.025 per cent till now, the weightedaverage CKD loss can be calculated. Based on thisassumption, the CKD loss for 1994 will be 1.38 percent. Using this data, it was estimated that theweighted average emission factor for the cementindustry in India is in the range of 0.534 to 0.539tonnes per tonne of clinker for large cementmanufacturers, for the year 1994.

limestone is used in the case of iron ore, wherelimestone heated in a blast furnace reacts with theimpurities in the iron ore and fuels, generating CO2

as a by-product. Limestone is also used in refractories.

CO2 emissions were estimated for majormanufacturers, which account for 75 per cent of thetotal dolomite consumption. The activity data (IndianMineral Year Books, 1982-2001) used for theestimation of emissions is the quantity of limestoneand dolomite used annually. The estimates excludethe use of limestone by cement and high limeindustries such as sugar, paper and lime kilns, as

emissions from these sectors have been reportedunder ‘lime production’. The total CO2emitted due tolimestone and dolomite use in 1994 is estimated at5,751 Gg.

Soda ash useSoda ash has diverse applications in industries likeglass, soap and detergents, textiles and food. Sincethe data for specific application areas is not reliable,the uncertainty associated with the emissionsestimates for this sector is likely to be very high. Thetotal CO2 emitted in 1994 from soda ash use isestimated at 273 Gg.

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Ammonia productionThe majority of ammonia production takes place infertilizer manufacturing units in India. The Tier-Iapproach was adopted to estimate emissions from thissub category, using an average of IPCC defaultemission factors. The total CO2 released due toammonia production is 14,395 Gg.

Carbide productionCO2 is produced during the manufacturing processof calcium carbide and silicon carbide. Calciumcarbide is made by heating calcium carbonate andsubsequently reducing CaO with carbon derived frompetrol coke. Both these steps lead to the emission ofCO2. The most important application of calciumcarbide is the production of acetylene. CO2 is releasedin the production of silicon carbide as a by-productof a reaction between quartz and carbon.

Emissions from the three stages of calcium carbideand use, namely, the use of coal as a reducing agent,the use of limestone and use of calcium carbide fordifferent applications were estimated. IPCC Tier-Imethodology and IPCC default emission factors havebeen applied for all three stages. The total CO2 emittedfrom this sector in 1994 was 302 Gg.

Iron and steel productionThe iron and steel production process contributed alittle more than half the CO2 emissions from theindustrial processes sector in 1994. Process emissionof CO2 in an iron and steel plant takes place duringcoke oxidation. Additional emissions occur as thelimestone flux gives off CO2 during reduction of pigiron in the blast furnace, but this source is covered asemissions from the limestone use. There are twoprocesses of production that are common in India,namely integrated steel plants (technically defined asblast furnace open hearth and basic oxygen furnace),and mini steel plants scrap or sponge iron basedElectric Arc Furnaces (EAF).

The coal consumption data in this sector is accesseddirectly from the consumption end (SAIL, 1984, 1986,1988, 1990, 1992, 1994, 1996, 1998, 2000). Emissionsfrom this sub-sector can be ascribed to three distinctsources from the use of coal as reducing agents in theblast furnace, from the production of steel from pigiron and from graphite electrodes in EAF.

Tier-II methodology was used to estimateemissions from the production of steel from pigiron. Emissions factors for reducing agents basedon NCV of coal (of 2.26 t-C/t coal) andcommunication with different EAF units in thecountry (14 kg C/t) was used. Thus, the total CO2

released due to manufacturing of iron and steel in Indiain 1994 was estimated to be 44,445 Gg.

Ferroalloys productionIn ferroalloys production, raw ore, coke and slaggingmaterials are smelted together under high temperature.During the smelting process, a reduction reactiontakes place. Carbon captures the oxygen from metaloxides to form CO while the ores are reduced tomolten base metals. The component metals are thencombined in the solution. In covered arc furnaces,the primary emissions are entirely CO, however,it is assumed that all CO is converted into CO2 withindays afterwards.

The activity data is ideally, the quantity of the reducingagent consumed or alternatively, it is the quantity offerroalloys produced (SAIL, 2000; IFAPA, 2000). Inthe present calculations, the annual productionvolumes of the different types of ferroalloys were usedas activity data. Using IPCC default emissions factorsfor the various types of ferroalloys produced in thecountry, the total CO2 emission estimated due tosmelting of ores was 1,295 Gg.

Aluminium productionAluminium is produced in two steps. First, the bauxiteis ground, purified and calcinated to produce alumina.It is then electrically reduced to aluminium bysmelting. CO2 is emitted during the electrolysis ofalumina to aluminium using a graphite electrode asthe source of carbon for reduction.

To estimate CO2 emissions from the production ofaluminium, the activity data used is the quantityof aluminium produced annually. Data onaluminium production (MoSM, 1988-1999) hasbeen obtained according to the technology used ineach manufacturing unit. IPCC default emissionfactors for the Soderberg and pre-backed anodeprocesses have been applied to estimate emissionsfrom this industry. Aggregate production from allmanufacturing units has been used to estimate

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per cent of the forest area. The distribution of forests,excluding miscellaneous forests, is dominated byShorea robusta (Sal) and Tectona grandis (Teak)species occupying 12 per cent and 10 per cent of thetotal forest area, respectively. The area under differentforest type is shown in Figure 2.12.

Fig. 2.12: Area under different forest types in India(miscellaneous forests are not included).Source: FSI, 1993, 1994 and 1995. Status of Forest Report,Forest Survey of India, Dehradun.

emissions at the national level. The total CO2

emitted from aluminium production in 1994 was749 Gg.

Land use, land-use change andforestryIn this sector, the fundamental basis for GHGinventory estimates rests upon the fact that the fluxof CO2 to or from the atmosphere is assumed to beequal to the changes in carbon stocks in existingbiomass and soils, and that changes in carbon stockscan be estimated by first establishing rates of changein land use and the practices used, to bring about thechange (e.g., burning, clear cutting and selectivefelling etc.). The IPCC approach involves fourestimates of carbon stock changes due to; (a) changesin forest and other woody biomass stocks; (b) forestand grassland conversion; (c) uptake fromabandonment of managed lands; and (d) emissionsand removals from soils.

The methods adopted and quality of data used forthe present Indian inventory falls into the Tier-IIcategory. All activity data andmost emission/sequestrationfactors used are from nationalsources. Some of the data used isfrom field measurements and forestinventory sources, normallyassociated with Tier-III. Indiapresently does not have a NationalForestry Inventory (NFI)Programme which undertakesrepeated measurements from thesame plots for estimating rates ofchanges for several parameters, suchas average annual biomass growthrate, changes in soil carbon densityand growing stock of biomass.

The area under forests (includingtree plantations) in India wasestimated to be 63.33 Mha in 1994.The forest area in India iscategorized into 22 strata accordingto the Forest Survey of India (FSI), based on thedominant tree species. The forests which could notbe categorized as any other forest strata, are includedunder ‘Miscellaneous Forest’, which accounts for 64

Land use, land-use change.

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Changes in forest and other woodybiomass stockThe CO2 emission from changes in forest and otherwoody biomass stocks is the result of net changes incarbon stock from the growth in biomass and lossesfrom extraction of biomass. The total carbon uptakein forests is estimated first by categorizing forest areainto different strata, then by estimating the area undereach of the forest stratum and by obtaining an averageannual growth rate from the literature and fieldmeasurements. Thus, the total carbon uptake isestimated by multiplying the area under each foreststratum and average annual biomass increment andaggregating the overall 22 forest strata. The annualbiomass increment was estimated to be 77.0 Tg-Cand the total carbon release due to commercialextraction of timber and traditional wood use is 73.2Tg-C. The net CO2 uptake in 1994 from changes inforest and other woody biomass stock was 14.2 Tg-CO2, or 14,252 Gg.

Forest and grassland conversionThe annual loss of biomass due to forest conversionwas estimated to be 12.09 Tg, in 1994. In India, thequantity of biomass lost due to on-site burning is dueto the conversion of forests to agriculture on accountof shifting cultivation mainly in the north-easternregion. The woody biomass left for decay afterconversion is assumed to be insignificant or nil, asall woody biomass is likely to be collected and usedas fuelwood by the local communities. The totalquantity of carbon dioxide released from on-site andoff-site burning and biomass left for decay is estimatedto be 17,987 Gg.

Uptake from abandonment of managedlandsThe total CO2 uptake is estimated by multiplying thearea of abandoned land and the mean annual biomassgrowth rate. Thus, the total CO2 uptake in managedland that is abandoned and subjected to regenerationis estimated to be 9281 Gg. Area left abandoned forover 20 years is assumed to be nil, as no such landsmay exist due to the following reasons: (a) if the landhas acquired a tree crown of over 10 per cent, it would

have been classified as forest and included underforests; (b) land may have been converted to croplandor non-agricultural lands; and (c) in a 20-year period,the land may have completely degraded and turned intobarren land with no above ground biomass growth.

Emission and removals from soilsThe sources and sinks of CO2 in soils are associatedwith changes in the amount of organic carbon storedin soils. The release of CO2 also occurs from inorganicsources, either from naturally occurring carbonateminerals, or from applied lime. Therefore, estimationsunder this category take into account: (a) estimatesof change in soil carbon from mineral soils; (b) CO2

emissions from intensively managed organic soils;and (c) CO2 emission due to liming of agriculturalsoils. Change in soil carbon from mineral soils due tochange in land management or use is estimated bytaking into account the total land area categorized into22 forest strata and seven other land use systems3

covering cropland, fallow land, non-agricultural land,etc. The area under these forest and non-forest land-use systems is estimated for 1984 and 1994 (http://planningcomission.nic.in/data/dataf.htm). Soil carbondensity (tC/ha) in the top 30 cm for each land-usesystem is obtained from literature as well as fieldmeasurements. The total soil carbon stock is estimatedfor all land-use systems for 1984 and 1994. Thedifference in carbon stock averaged over 10-yearperiod is estimated as net emission of CO2 for 1994.Following this methodology, the net change in soilcarbon stock in mineral soils averaged over a 10-yearperiod (1984 to 1994) for 1994 is estimated to be 19.68Tg CO2. CO2 emissions from intensively managedorganic soils could not be estimated as the area underorganic soils, subjected to change is marginal or zerodue to the fact that area under organic soil is verylimited. Further, such lands may have beenconverted long before 1994, or are likely to beunder protection, and data available on changes,if any is limited. For example, there is no dataavailable on lime application to soil at the nationallevel. Lime application is not prevalent on anysignificant scale in India and is thus not considered.Therefore, CO2 emissions from liming (CaCO3) of

3 The soil carbon for forest types is based on literature for the 22 forest strata compiled by Forest Research Institute of India and carbondensity (t C/ha) for the seven non-forest land use categories was deduced from field soil sampling and laboratory measurements up to adepth of 30 cm.

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Table 2.7: National Methane emissions in 1994.

Figure 2.13: Relative methane emission fromdifferent anthropogenic activities in 1994.

Total national CH4 Emission in Gg 18083

1. All Energy 2896 Transport 9

Fuel combustionBiomass burnt for energy 1636

Fugitive Fuel EmissionOil and natural gas system 601Coal mining 650

2. Industrial Processes 2Production of carbon black and styrene 2

3. Agriculture 14175Enteric fermentation 8972Manure management 946Rice cultivation 4090Agricultural crop residue 167

4. Land use, Land-use change and Forestry 6.5Trace gases from biomass burning 6.5

5. Waste 1003Municipal solid waste disposal 582Domestic waste water 359Industrial waste water 62

natural gas systems; dependence on products derivedfrom livestock; waste management; increasedproduction of rice to meet the demand of the growingpopulation; on-site burning of crop residue forpreparing the fields for the next cropping; cyclemanagement of solid waste; and waste water fromthe domestic and the industrial sectors. In thefollowing section, the CH4 emissions in India fromthese sources are presented in Table 2.7.

The total national CH4 emission in 1994 from theabove-mentioned sources was 18,083 Gg. Theagriculture sector dominated with 78 per cent of thetotal national CH4 emissions, within which emissionsdue to enteric fermentation (8,972 Gg) and ricecultivation (4,090 Gg) were the highest. Of suchemissions 16 per cent came from the energy systemscomprising emissions due to biomass burning, coalmining and handling and flaring of natural gassystems. Waste disposal activities contributed about6 per cent of the total CH4. Methane emissions fromthe LULUCF sector were minor in nature, mainly dueto the burning of biomass in forests. Similarly, thecontribution of the industrial process sector to the totalnational CH4 emissions is miniscule in comparisonwith other sources and is only around 2 Gg. Thesectoral distributions of CH4 emissions from India in1994 are shown in Figure 2.13.

agricultural soils is not estimated. Considering allthese aspects, the net CO2 emission from agriculturallyimpacted soils (land-use management) is estimatedto be 19,788 Gg.

Considering gross CO2 emissions and removals forthe land use, land-use change and forestry sector, thenet CO2 emissions, for the inventory year 1994 isestimated to be 14,142 Gg of CO2, which is less than2 per cent of national CO2 emissions.

Methane (CH4) emissionsAtmospheric methane is an integral component of thegreenhouse effect, second only to CO2 as a contributorto the total anthropogenic GHG warming in theatmosphere. The overall contribution of CH4 to globalwarming is 21 times more effective at trapping heatin the atmosphere with respect to CO2 (IPCC, 1996).From the pre-industrial times to the present, theconcentration of CH4 in the atmosphere has increased151 times (IPCC, 2001a). The main factorscontributing to this increase are: proliferation inactivities related to exhaustive mining of coal forenergy use; emissions due to handling of oil and

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Energy

Biomass burningThe combustion of biomass leads to emission ofmethane and other trace gases. In India, about 60 percent of households depend on traditional sources ofenergy, like fuelwood, dung cake and crop residuefor meeting their cooking and heating needs (PlanningCommission, 2002). Using IPCC default emissioncoefficients, the amount of CH4 released in 1994 was1,636 Gg. High uncertainties are associated with thisestimate as biomass activity data are based only onsmall surveys carried out at different points of time.More exhaustive surveys are required to establish thequantity of various types of biomass used in thecountry.

Coal miningMethane trapped in the coal seams during itsformation million of years ago, is released when it is

Figure 2.14: Number of mines in India accordingto their gassiness.

Degree I: means a coal seam or part thereof withinthe precincts of a mine not being an opencastworking, whether or not inflammable gas isactually detected in the general body of the air atany place in its workings below ground, or whenthe percentage of the inflammable gas, if and whendetected, in such general body of air does notexceed 0.1 and the rate of emission of such gasdoes not exceed one cubic meter per tonne of coalproduced.

Degree II: means a coal seam or part thereof withinthe precincts of a mine not being an opencastworking in which the percentage of inflammablegas in the general body of air at any place in theworkings of the seam is more than 0.1 or rate ofemission of inflammable gas per tonne of coalproduced exceeds one cubic meter but does notexceed ten cubic meters.

Degree III: means a coal seam or part thereofwithin the precincts of a mine not being an opencastworking in which the rate of emission ofinflammable gas per tonne of coal producedexceeds ten cubic meters.

Box –2.2: Gassiness of Indian mines

mined. The quantity of methane released dependsprimarily on the depth of and type of coal that is beingmined. India’s total coal resources are estimated at206 Bt up to a depth of 1200 metres. The recoverablecoal reserves, estimated at 75 Bt are capable ofsupplying coal for over 250 years at current levels ofproduction, or more than 125 years at double theexisting rate of production, which may very likely bethe demand of coal a decade later. Lignite reserves inthe country have been estimated at around 34,763 Mtout of which 30,275 Mt are recoverable. About 425mines are the major producers of coal in India,contributing approximately 90 percent of national coalproduction. The production programme from theexisting coal producers includes both opencast andunderground methods of mining.

Based on mine-specific rate of emission ofmethane, all the underground coal mines in Indiahave been categorized into Degree I, Degree II andDegree III (see Box 2.2 and Figure 2.14) by theDirectorate General of Mines Safety (DGMS,1967). There is no such classification for opencastcoal mines, as the associated methane emission is notvery high and emitted gas immediately diffuses intothe atmosphere.

Considering the vast deposits of coal with varyingdegrees of gas content, it was deemed necessaryto estimate the CH4 emission coefficientsrepresenting the indigenous conditions. Extensivefield investigations were carried out, involving themeasurement of velocity of air passing through thereturn airways separately in each ventilatingdistrict and in the main body, with the help of the

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Agriculture

Enteric fermentationIn India, livestock rearing is an integral part of itsculture, as well as for most of the agriculturalactivities. Although the livestock includes cattle,buffaloes, sheep, goat, pigs, horses, mules, donkeys,camels and poultry, the bovines and the smallruminants are the most dominant feature of Indianagrarian scenario, and the major source of methaneemissions (Figure 2.15). Traditional cattle are raisedfor draught power for agricultural purposes, and cowsand buffaloes for milk production. The cattle andbuffaloes provide economic stability to farmers in theface of uncertainties associated with farm productionin dry land/rain-fed cropped areas. Currently, mostof the cattle are low-producing non-descript,indigenous breeds and only a small percentage (5-10per cent) is of a higher breed (cross-bred and higherindigenous breeds). Even in the case of buffaloes,there are very few high yield animals (10–20 per cent).Sheep rearing is prevalent in many areas because ofsmaller herd sizes, which are easy to raise and manage,

Von Anemometer. The cross-sectional area of eachreturn airway was determined by multiplying theaverage width and height of the airway. Thepercentage of methane in the air samples collected inthe return airway, and also in the general body airwas determined using the Gas Chromatographytechnique.

An alternative approach was taken to measure theCH4 emission coefficient from opencast mining.Rectangular chambers were placed on the benches ofopencast mines for a pre-determined period of timeand methane percentage inside the chamber wasdetermined by Gas Chromatography. The area of coalfaces exposed earlier or freshly-exposed were alsomeasured in the opencast mines to calculate methaneflux. The emission measurements from post-miningactivities were also taken. Also, the emission factorsfor coal-handling activities were determined fordifferent categories.

Through the above measurements and collectionof data on methane emission during mining andpost mining activities, emission factors foropencast and under-ground mines were generatedfor Indian geologic and mining conditions (Table2.8). Using these emission coefficients, the total CH4

released in 1994 from Indian coalmines was estimatedat 650 Gg.

Table 2.8: CH4 emission coefficients derived for coalmining in India.

Methane measurements from enteric fermentation.

Type of mining m3 CH4 /tcoal mined

Underground mining

During Mining degree 1 2.9degree 2 13.1degree 3 23.6Post Miningdegree 1 1.0degree 2 2.2degree 3 3.1

Surface Mining

During mining 1.8Post mining 0.2

Canister

Capillary Tube

Figure 2.15: Distribution of Indian Livestock.

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providing year-round gainful employment to the smalland marginal farmers.

Cattle and buffalo, which are the main milk-producinganimals in the country, constitute 61 per cent of thetotal livestock population in India. The average milkproduced by dairy cattle in India is 2.1 kg/day,whereas buffaloes produce 3.5 kg/day (MOA, 2004),which is much less than the milk produced by cattlein the developed countries (IPCC Revised Guidelines,1996). This is mainly due to the poor quality of feedavailable to the cattle, specially domesticated in ruralhouseholds. In spite of the low-energy value of feedintake, CH4 produced from this source in India is thehighest amongst all agricultural sources, contributingabout 55 per cent of the total CH4 emissions. Out ofthis, the dairy cattle and buffaloes contribute to about40 per cent.

Considering its key source category status, an attemptwas made to estimate as well as measure the CH4

emission coefficient for cattle. For this purpose, thecattle population has been divided into dairy and non-dairy categories, with sub classification intoindigenous and cross-bred types for different agegroups (MOA, 1997) (Box 2.3). CH4 emissioncoefficients have been determined by three groups.The first is based on the IPCC Tier-II approach, thesecond on assimilation of published data on methane

Table 2.9: CH4 emission coefficient adopted forestimating CH4 emission from Indian livestock

Category g CH4 peranimal

Dairy cattleIndigenous 28±5Cross-bred 43±5Non-dairy cattle (indigenous)0-1 year 9±31-3 year 23±8Adult 32±6Non-dairy cattle (cross-bred)0-1 year 11±31-2 ½ year 26±5Adult 33± 4Dairy buffalo 50± 17Non-dairy Buffalo0-1 year 8± 31-3 year 22± 6Adult 44± 11

released from ruminants, and the third is based on afew measurements carried out using the Face MaskTechnique as a part of the enabling activities carriedout for the preparation of India’s Initial NationalCommunication. A summary of the emission factorsis given in Table 2.9. It is clear that the indigenousvarieties, whether cattle or buffalo have much loweremission coefficients than the cross-bred ones. Thisis mainly due to the difference in feed intake of thetwo. By taking a weighted average of emission factors

Dairy Cattle

� High yield having calves once in a year (cross-bred)

� Low yield having calves once in a year (Indian)

Dairy Buffalo

� Lactating buffalo are classified in a singlecategory i.e., Dairy Buffalo.

Non-dairy

For both Indigenous and Cross-bred cattle andbuffalo� Below one year but more than three months� One to three years and one to two and a half

years for cross-bred� Adult

Box 2.3: Characterization of cattleand buffalo subgroups

Collection of CH4 sample from manure dump site.

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to estimate methane emitted from various waterregimes since 1991. The definition of water regimeshave changed from campaign to campaign, and finallyin 1996 in the IPCC revised guidelines for estimatingnational GHG emissions from anthropogenic sources.The total area under rice cultivation was categorizedunder different water regimes, namely, upland, rainfed drought and flood prone, continuously irrigated,irrigation with single or multiple aerations, and deepwater (Figure 2.16). Most of these diverse watermanagement systems are also practiced in mosttraditional rice-producing countries.

The seasonal integrated flux of CH4 for ecosystemsclassified according to different water managementpractices have been averaged and integrated withearlier decadal emission data (measured since 1991 )for soils without any organic amendments, and forlow soil organic carbon (Box 2.4). Thus, new nationalmethane emission coefficients were generated and isgiven in Table 2.10 The total CH4 released from ricecultivation in 1994 is estimated to be 4,090 Gg.

produced for the various age categories of cattle andbuffalo, the total CH4 emitted from India due to entericfermentation is estimated to be 8,972 Gg.

Manure managementThe decomposition of organic animal waste in ananaerobic environment produces CH4 and, therefore,the amount of CH4 produced depends on how it ismanaged. The waste produced by non-ruminantanimals in India are not collected; however those ofcattle and buffalo are used for a variety of purposes.Usually, the waste of cattle is either sun dried as dungcakes for their use in rural cooking, or is stored foruse as biogas. The methane produced from suchsystems is about 946 Gg.

Rice cultivationAnaerobic decomposition of organic material inflooded rice fields produces CH4, which escapes intothe atmosphere primarily by diffusive transportthrough the rice plants during the growing season.There are large spatial and temporal variations ofmethane fluxes which occur due to different soil types,soil organic carbon and various agricultural practicessuch as choice of water management and cultivar, theapplication of organic amendments, the mineralfertilizer, and soil organic carbon.

Methane emission measurements fromrice cultivationIn India, rice is cultivated under various watermanagement options, depending on the availabilityof water across the country. In the mountainousregions, rice is grown in terraces created along theside of the mountains. In most of the northern plainsand some parts of the eastern region, rice is cultivatedby irrigating the fields intermittently or continuously,for a considerable period of time. In other parts of thecountry, however, rain-fed rice cultivation ispredominant where water is only available in the fieldsduring rains. Deep-water rice cultivation, with a waterdepth ranging from 50-100 cm. is also practiced inthe coastal regions of West Bengal and Orissa.Methane flux measurements on a national scale insuch representative water regimes have been madesince 1991 under various campaigns using the Perspexbox technique, whereby samples are collected andanalyzed using gas chromatography. India hasconducted three to four campaign mode measurements

Figure 2.16: Distribution of area under ricecultivation in India.

Table 2.10: CH4 emission coefficient for differentwater regimes.

Emissioncoefficient

Water regime (gm-2)

Upland 0Rain fed

Flood prone 19+6.0Drought prone 7.0+2.0

Continuously flooded 17.4+4.0Intermittently flooded

Single aeration 6.6+1.9Multiple aeration 2.1+1.5

Deep water 19.0+6.0

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Methodologies and types of emission factors used forestimating CH4 emission from rice fields in India hasundergone various changes since the 1

st campaign in

1991 was launched to measure the CH4 fluxes fromthis source. Based on the 1991 campaign observations,a CH4 budget estimate was made for rain fed waterlogged areas, in the eastern, southern, northern andwestern region of India, the rest of the area was dividedas deep water, irrigated and upland area. The emissionfactor was seasonally integrated over the entirecropping period. The 1995 IPCC guidelines indicatedonly three regimes namely, upland, intermittentlyflooded and upland rice. The emission factors were interms of kg CH4/ha/day. These water regimes were insufficient for representing the diverse water regimesprevalent in India and other south Asian countries. The revised IPCC guidelines (IPCC, 1996) had a muchmore detailed water regime consisting of upland and low land conditions, with low land further divided intorain-fed, irrigated and deep-water conditions. Each of these is again subdivided to represent the entire gamutof water flooding conditions in this region.

Methane measurement campaigns have been carried out in India since 1991, and also under the aegis ofIndia’s Initial National Communication. The present campaign covered the rice growing regions of WestBengal, Orissa, Assam, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Delhi was made for Rabi 2002and Kharif of 2003. Other than the water regime, the parameters that have been taken into account are thefertilizer doses, different rice cultivars, soil types, different soil organic carbon and different organic amendmentsapplied.

A static box or chamber technique was used at all sitesover the entire paddy cropping seasons including fallowperiods. Flux measurements were made, in the forenoonand afternoon on the same site twice a week. To reduceuncertainties in spatial variability within the croppingfield, measurements using four channels/chambers forsampling were used. Samples at all sites were collectedin glass vials or plastic syringes manually and CH4

concentrations in the samples were determined usingGas chromatograph with flame ionization detector(FID) system and GC-Electron capture detector (ECD)respectively. All samples were calibrated againstnationally/ internationally comparable standards andproficiency testing for methane were also carried out.The seasonally integrated flux (Esif) were calculated bytaking the daily mean of the flux data and integrating itover the whole cropping season from transplantationto harvest stage. Standard deviations from the dailymean flux were used to derive the minimum andmaximum ranges of Esif.

Box 2.4: CH4 measurement campaign in rice cultivation areas

On site measurement of

State-wise distribution of emission coefficientsdetermined through 2002-2003 CH4 measurementcampaign.

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Burning of Agricultural crop residueThe burning of crop residue is not a net source of CO2

as the CO2 released into the atmosphere duringburning is reabsorbed during the next growing season.However, burning of crop residue is a significant netsource of CH4 in addition to other trace gases. Theamount of agricultural waste produced by a countrydepends on its crop management system. In India,the primary end-uses of crop residue are as animalfodder, industrial and domestic fuel, thatching,packaging, bedding, construction of walls/fences, andas green-manure and compost. The amount left is whatis available for field burning, and only a fraction ofthis amount is actually subject to burning. Thisfraction is, in fact, highly uncertain and varies withlocal and regional climate, season, livestockdistribution, availability of fuelwood, availability offodder, weed infestation etc.

The crop residue is particularly burnt in the rice/ wheatgrowing regions of Punjab, Haryana, Uttaranchal,western Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka, where with theintroduction of mechanized harvesters, the collection

and disposal of residues is a practical problem.Consequently, farmers prefer to burn residues in thefield, primarily to clear the remaining straw andstubble after the harvest and to prepare the field forthe next cropping cycle. Currently, wastes from ninecrops viz., rice, wheat, cotton, maize, millet,sugarcane, jute, rapeseed-mustard and groundnut, aresubjected to burning. Thus, the total dry residuegeneration in the year 1994 was estimated to be about203 thousand tonnes. Using IPCC emissioncoefficients, the CH4 released from this source wasfound to be about 167 Gg.

Municipal Solid waste managementSolid waste disposal in India takes place in twodistinctively different ways. In rural areas and smalltowns, there is no systematic collection of waste andit is haphazard. As anaerobic conditions do notdevelop, no methane is generated in these areas.However, in urban towns, solid waste is disposed byland filling in low-lying areas located in and aroundthe urban centres. Due to stacking of waste over theyears, anaerobic conditions develop, and hence thesedumping sites generate large quantities of biogascontaining a sizeable proportion of methane. Basedon secondary data on the type of solid waste produced,per capita waste produced, and the Bio-chemicalOxygen Demand (BOD) content of the waste, it isestimated that in 1994, 582 Gg of CH4 was emittedfrom this source.

The per capita waste generation will require to beinvestigated further in the future, by carrying out

Field measurements for GHG emissions from agriculturecrop residue burning. A municipal solid waste dumping site in New Delhi.

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surveys in individual households in urban areas. It isnecessary, that instead of applying a single value ofper capita waste generation, which is averaged overhighly varying values across the country, a town-by-town value should be developed and appliedto reduce the uncertainty in CH4 emission estimatesfrom this sector. Also, it is expected that with therapid development that India is presentlyexperiencing, a greater number of small towns willhave the facility of disposing their solid wastesystematically and consequently, CH4 emissionsfrom this source may rise significantly in thefuture.

Waste water management

Domestic and industrialThe Central Pollution Control Board systematicallycollects data on industrial waste water and domesticwaste water generation from big cities (CPCB, 1997).The amount of waste water generated in India in thedomestic sector is around 135 litres per capita perday, of which industrial waste water produced for thesame period is around 8 per cent of this. The totalCH4 emitted from the management of domestic as wellas industrial wastewater in 1994 is estimated to be421 Gg.

Other sectorsMethane is also produced from other sectors, such asemission from mobile sources, handling and flaringof oil and natural gas, and from industrial sources. In1994, the amount of CH4 emitted from the transportsector was about 9 Gg, which is only 0.2 per cent ofthe total CH4 emitted from this sector. The flaringand handling of oil and natural gas systems in 1994led to an emission of 601 Gg. This includes emissiondue to drilling for oil and natural gas, transport of oiland natural gas, and flaring of natural gas. In theindustrial process sector, only the production of blackcarbon and styrene resulted in an emission of 2 Ggmethane

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) emissionsNitrous oxide is a GHG, which is produced bothnaturally, from a wide variety of biological sourceslike soil and water, and anthropogenically by activitiessuch as agriculture, transport, industrial and wastemanagement sectors. The total N2O emissions in India

Figure 2.17: Distribution of N2O emission acrosssectors.

in 1994 were 178 Gg, which is only 4 per cent of thetotal GHG emissions from the country. Agriculturesector accounted for 85 per cent of total N2O emissionfrom India in 1994, fuel combustion accounted for 6per cent, industrial processes for 5 per cent, waste for4 per cent and N2O emissions from biomass burningwas miniscule (Figure 2.17). The sectoral emissionsare also detailed in Table 2.11.

High degrees of uncertainties are associated with N2Oemission estimates, as most of the activity data,especially in the agricultural sectors are dispersedorganic sources that have not been very wellquantified. Extensive surveys are required to quantifythis data such as the determination of agricultural cropresidue burnt on fields and direct and indirect activitiesleading to N2O emissions from soil . Since N2Oemission from soils has proved to be a key source ofemission in India, it is necessary to developappropriate emission coefficients throughmeasurements covering the different seasons in thediverse cropping systems of the country.

Fuel combustionN2O is a product of the reaction between nitrogenand oxygen during fuel combustion. Both mobile andstationary combustion lead to the emission of N2O.The quantity emitted varies with type of fuel,technology, pollution control devices used and

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maintenance and operation practices. For example,catalytic converters installed in motor vehicles toreduce pollution can lead to the formation of N2O.

In 1994, the N2O emission from all energy activitiesaccounted for 5 per cent of the total N2O emissionsfrom India. It includes stationary combustionemissions due to fuel combustion in energy andtransformation activities, industry, residential andcommercial end uses, biomass burning and emissionfrom mobile sources. Nitrous Oxide emissions fromstationary combustion were 11.4 Gg, and from mobilesources about 0.7 Gg.

Nitric acid productionNitric acid is primarily used as raw material infertilizer production, and in the production of adipicacid and explosives. It is produced on an industrialscale by the catalytic oxidation of ammonia (ExxonProcess) in the presence of air over the precious metalscatalysts, for example, platinum, rhodium, andpalladium at high temperature and high pressure.During the production of nitric acid (HNO3), nitrous

oxide is produced as a by-product. In the absence ofabatement measures, HNO3 production contributeslarge amounts of atmospheric N2O. The worldwideHNO3 production contributes about 0.4 Tg of N2O tothe atmosphere.

The IPCC default N2O emission coefficients do notadequately represent the Indian conditions forproduction of HNO3. Therefore, attempts were madeto conduct real-time measurements of the N2Oconcentrations in the tail (stack) gas of different plantsoperating at medium pressure at 2.5 to 4.5 barpressure, high pressure at 6 to 12 bar pressure, anddual pressure process in which the reaction wasobserved at medium pressure and absorption at highpressure. The technologies employed for N2Oabatement are extended absorption, selective catalyticreduction (SCR), and non-selective catalytic reduction(NSCR). The ‘NIOSH Method 6600’ method wasemployed for the analysis of N2O, which is a standardvalidated method for real-time analysis.

N2O produced in a medium pressure plant was in therange 6.48 – 13.79 kg per tonne of HNO3; the meanvalue was 10.13 kg N2O per tonne of HNO3 with anaverage uncertainty 36.0 per cent. Whereas, N2Oproduced in a high pressure plant was in the range1.54 – 4.13 kg N2O per tonne of HNO3; the meanvalue was 2.84 kg of N2O per tonne of acid with anaverage uncertainty of 45.6 per cent. The high pressureplant with NSCR produced the lowest amounts ofN2O, which was in the range 0.24 – 0.57 kg per tonneof HNO3 with a mean value 0.405 kg N2O per tonneof acid and 41.0 per cent average uncertainty (Box2.5). Based on these, N2O emitted from this sourcewas estimated at 9 Gg in 1994.

Agriculture

Manure ManagementDuring the storage of manure, some of the nitrogenin the manure is converted into N2O. Nitrous oxide isformed when manure nitrogen is nitrified ordenitrified in animals themselves, in animal wastesduring storage and treatment, and due to dung andurine deposited by free-range grazing animals. N2Oemission emitted directly from animals is not reportedhere. There are several animal waste managementsystems (AWMS) considered here which include

Table 2.11: N2O emission in 1994.

Total (Net) National Emission(Gg per year) 178

1. All Energy 11.4Fuel combustion

Energy and transformation industries 4.9Industry 2.8Transport 0.7Commercial-institutional 0.2Residential 0.4All other sectors 0.4Biomass burnt for energy 2.0

2. Industrial Processes 9.0Nitric acid production 9.03. Agriculture 151Manure management 1Agricultural crop residue 4Emission from soils 1464. Land use, Land-use changeand Forestry 0.044Trace gases from biomass burning 0.0445. Waste 7.0Human sewage 7.0

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The plants in India are classified into three technology clusters:� medium pressure process plants (MPP) operating at 2.5 to 4.5 bar pressure,� high pressure process plants (HPP) operating at 6 to 12 bar pressure, and� dual pressure process (there was only one plant) i.e., reaction at medium pressure and absorption at

high pressure.

The technologies employed for NOX abatement are extended absorption, selective catalytic reduction(SCR), and non-selective catalytic reduction (NSCR). In India, there are two HPP plants without SCR orNSCR, one HPP plant with NSCR, and one HPP plant with SCR. The remaining plants are based on MPPwith extended absorption with or without SCR. Nitric acid is produced as by product in two plants, whichhave NSCR abatement technology.

The real time measurements of the N2O concentration in the tail (stack) gas were made at selected nitricacid production plants which are normally operated near 100 per cent capacity as the start up and shutdown periods are small. The plants were selected to cover, as far as possible, the full spectrum of nitricacid production technologies being currently used in India.

The concentration of N2O in the tail gas was measured, at a fixed frequency of 1 or 2 minutes and forvaried periods of 0.5 hr to 24 hrs depending on the circumstances. The above sample size was adequate forthe statistical evaluation of various parameters.

Box 2.5: Determination of N2O emission coefficient from Nitric acidproduction

anaerobic lagoons, liquid systems, daily spread, solidstorage and dry lot, pasture range and paddock, usedfor fuel and other systems. However, care has beentaken to avoid including of emissions from stablemanure that is applied to agricultural soils (forexample, daily spread), dung and urine deposited bygrazing animals on fields (pasture range and paddock),from solid storage and dry lot, which are consideredto be from agricultural soil and emission from manureused for fuel, which are reported under the energysector. Using IPCC default values of N2O emissioncoefficients for all the activities in this sector, the totalN2O emission in 1994 was 1 Gg.

Emission from soilsThis is the largest source of N2O emission in India,constituting about 81 per cent of the total N2O in termsof CO2 equivalent released in 1994. The emission ofN2O results from anthropogenic nitrogen inputthrough direct and indirect pathways, including thevolatilization losses from synthetic fertilizer andanimal manure application, leaching and run-offfrom applied nitrogen to aquatic systems. Theapplied nitrogen includes synthetic fertilizer,animal manure and also the sewage sludge appliedto soils. The volatilization of applied nitrogen as

ammonia (NH3) and oxides of nitrogen (NOx) isfollowed by deposition as ammonium (NH4) andoxides of nitrogen (NOx) on soils and water andaccounts for indirect NO2 emissions from soils.Using the 1996 IPCC methodology and defaultemission coefficients, the total emission from thissource is estimated to be 146 Gg. Although the IPCCdefault emission factors have been used in the presentexercise, large uncertainties still exist in the various

Soil emissions are the largest source of N2O emissions inIndia.

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activities associated with the release of N2O from thissource. Therefore, in future, initiatives need to betaken to measure/estimate the respective emissioncoefficients.

Other sourcesOther sources include N2O emissions from burning ofcrop residue, and emissions from human sewage inwaste water treatment systems. N2O emitted fromburning of crop residue was 4 Gg and from humansewage treatment, it was 7 Gg in 1994.

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Climate change is not only a major globalenvironmental problem, but is also an issueof great concern to a developing country like

India. The earth’s climate has demonstrably changedon both global and regional scales since the pre-industrial era, with some of these changes attributableto human activities. The changes observed in theregional climate have already affected many of thephysical and biological systems and there areindications that social and economic systems have alsobeen affected. Climate change is likely to threatenfood production, increase water stress and decreaseits availability, result in sea-level rise that could floodcrop fields and coastal settlements, and increase theoccurrence of diseases, such as malaria. Given thelack of resources, and access to technology andfinances, developing countries such as India havelimited capacity to develop and adopt strategies toreduce their vulnerability to changes in climate.

Article 2 of the UNFCCC refers to the dangeroushuman influences on climate, in terms of whetherthey would allow ecosystems to adapt, ensure thatfood production is not threatened and chart a pathof sustainable economic development. Global,national and local level measures are needed tocombat the adverse impacts of climate changeinduced damages.

India is a large developing country with a populationof over one billion, whose growth is projected tocontinue in the coming decades. In India, nearly two-thirds of the population is rural, whose dependenceon climate-sensitive natural resources is very high.Its rural populations depend largely on the agriculturesector, followed by forests and fisheries for theirlivelihood. Indian agriculture is monsoon dependent,with over 60 per cent of the crop area under rainfedagriculture that is highly vulnerable to climatevariability and change.

An assessment of the impact of projected climatechange on natural and socio-economic systems iscentral to the whole issue of climate change. Climatechange impact assessment involves the following:

� To identify, analyze and evaluate the impact ofclimate variability and change on naturalecosystems, socio-economic systems and humanhealth.

� To assess the vulnerabilities, which also dependon the institutional and financial capacities of theaffected communities, such as farmers, forestdwellers and fishermen.

� To assess the potential adaptation responses.� To develop technical, institutional and financial

strategies to reduce the vulnerability of theecosystems and populations.

Developing countries such as India have low adaptivecapacity to withstand the adverse impacts of climatechange due to the high dependence of a majority ofthe population on climate-sensitive sectors, such asagriculture, forestry and fisheries, coupled with poorinfrastructure facilities, weak institutionalmechanisms and lack of financial resources. India istherefore, seriously concerned with the possibleimpacts of climate change, such as:

� Water stress and reduction in the availability offresh water due to potential decline in rainfall.

� Threats to agriculture and food security, sinceagriculture is monsoon dependent and rainfedagriculture dominates in many states.

� Shifts in area and boundary of different forest typesand threats to biodiversity with adverseimplications for forest-dependent communities.

� Adverse impact on natural ecosystems, such aswetlands, mangroves and coral reefs, grasslandsand mountain ecosystems.

� Adverse impact of sea-level rise on coastal

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agriculture and settlements.� Impact on human health due to the increase in

vector and water-borne diseases, such as malaria.� Increased energy requirements and impact on

climate-sensitive industry and infrastructure.

The assessment of climate change impacts, andvulnerability and adaptation to climate change, requirea wide range of physical, biological and socio-economic models, methods, tools and data. Themethods for assessing the vulnerability, impact andadaptation are gradually improving, but are stillinadequate to help policy-makers formulateappropriate adaptation measures. This is due touncertainties in regional climate projections,unpredictable response of natural and socio-economicsystems and the inability to foresee futuretechnological developments. See Box 3.1 fordefinitions of vulnerability, adaptability and adaptivecapacity.

In this assessment, the vulnerability of naturalecosystems and socio-economic systems, and theimpacts of climate change on them are presented. Thesectors considered for the assessment of climatechange impacts include water resources, agriculture,forest and natural ecosystems, coastal zones, health,energy and infrastructure. First, the climate changeprojections for the Indian subcontinent are presented.Second, the impact and vulnerability of differentsectors are assessed that includes the current status ofthe sector, impact of climate change, and socio-

economic implications of these impacts. Third,adaptation strategies are suggested, along with thecurrent policies and their implications for thevulnerability of the different sectors. Finally, thebarriers to adaptation followed by examples ofpotential technical, institutional and financialstrategies to reduce the vulnerability of natural andhuman systems are presented.

CURRENT CLIMATE AND ITSVARIABILITY IN INDIA

India is subject to a wide range of climatic conditionsfrom the freezing Himalayan winters in the north tothe tropical climate of the southern peninsula, fromthe damp, rainy climate in the north-east to the aridGreat Indian Desert in the north-west, and from themarine climates of its vast coastline and islands tothe dry continental climate in the interior. The mostimportant feature in the meteorology of the Indiansubcontinent and, hence, its economy, is the Indiansummer monsoon. Almost all regions of the countryreceive their entire annual rainfall during the summermonsoon (also called the SW monsoon), while someparts of the south-eastern states also receive rainfallduring early winter from the north-east monsoon.Rainfall increases by almost three orders of magnitudefrom west to east across the country.

The MonsoonThe monsoon is associated with the seasonal heatingof the landmasses of Asia in summer and cooling in

Box 3.1: Definitions of Vulnerability, Adaptability and Adaptive CapacityVulnerability is the degree to which a system will respond to a given change in climate, including beneficialand harmful effects (IPCC Working Group II, 2001).

Vulnerability is the degree to which a system is susceptible to or unable to cope with, adverse effects ofclimate change including climate variability and extremes.

Vulnerability is also a function of the character, magnitude and rate of climate change and variation to whicha system is exposed, its sensitivity and its adaptive capacity [Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC WorkingGroup II)].

Adaptability refers to the degree to which adjustments are possible in practices, processes, structures ofsystems to projected or actual changes of climate. Adaptation can be spontaneous, or planned, and can becarried out in response to or in anticipation of changes in conditions ( IPCC, 1996 ).

Adaptive capacity is the ability of a system to adjust to climate change (including climate variability andextremes) to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences[Summary for Policy Makers (IPCC Working Group II)].

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winter, compared to the waters of theIndian Ocean and the China Seas.While the Indian summer monsoonis a consequence of the thermaldifferences between the land and thesea in general terms, it is primarilydue to the seasonal shifting ofthermally produced planetary beltsof pressure and winds undercontinental influences. Further aidedby complex seasonal changes in theupper-air circulation during summerunder the influence of the CentralAsian highlands, especially theTibetan Plateau, favourableconditions are created for the Asian summer monsoonto develop into a powerful air stream. During winter,the presence of an extensive high-pressure area overthe cold continent of Central Asia extending intonorthern India, and low pressure over the IndianOcean facilitates the flow of air from the north towardsthe Indian Ocean at lower levels. This flow, in theform of north-easterlies (also known as the north-eastmonsoon), brings winter rains to the southern partsof India. Apart from the monsoons, the north-westernparts of India receive considerable precipitation fromthe western disturbances. However, for a major partof the country, almost the whole of the annual rainfallis realized during the SW monsoon season, makingthe people and, hence the economy criticallydependent on it.

Rainfall and Surface TemperaturePatternsRainfall: Meteorological records maintained since the19

th century indicate that the Indian summer monsoon

is reasonably stable; however, simultaneousoccurrence of devastating floods in some areas andparching droughts in others is a common feature. Theinterannual variability of the monsoon is the cause ofsuch contrasting features

1 (Figure. 3.1). It has been

observed that regions with low seasonal rainfall alsoexperience high variability, making them chronicallydrought prone. The effect of droughts is furtheraccentuated by the occurrence of two to threeconsecutive drought years in the same region.

1 A year is classified as deficient, normal (negative), normal (positive) or excess monsoon year, when the all-India summer monsoon

rainfall is below -10 per cent, between -10 per cent and zero, between zero and +10 per cent, or above +10 per cent, respectively.

Figure 3.1: Variation of all-India monsoon rainfallduring 1871-2001.

The Indian monsoon has a direct link with theSouthern Oscillation Index (SOI). Weak Indianmonsoons in the country are associated with a largenegative SOI and occurrence of El Niño. Whereas,strong monsoons have been linked to large positiveSOIs and absence of El Niño events. Besides these,several global and regional parameters have beenfound to contribute to the interannual variability ofthe monsoon rainfall, which form the basis for itsseasonal forecasting. However, the relationshipsbetween the Indian monsoon and regional/globalcirculation parameters are known to have undergonesignificant multi-decadal changes obscuring the causalmechanisms.

Although the monsoon rainfall at the all-India leveldoes not show any trend and seems mainly randomin nature over a long period of time, the presence ofpockets of significant long-term changes in rainfallhave been recorded. Areas of increasing trend in themonsoon seasonal rainfall are found along the westcoast, north Andhra Pradesh and north-west India(+10 to +12 per cent of normal/100 years) and thoseof decreasing trend over east Madhya Pradesh andadjoining areas, north-east India and parts of Gujaratand Kerala (-6 to -8 per cent of normal/100 years)(Figure. 3.2).

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Temperature: All-India and regional mean seasonaland annual surface air temperature for the period1901-2000 indicate a significant warming of 0.4°Cper hundred years. On a seasonal scale, the warmingin the annual mean temperatures is mainly contributedby the post-monsoon and winter seasons. Also, dataanalyzed in terms of daytime and night-timetemperatures indicate that the warming waspredominantly due to an increase in the maximumtemperatures, while the minimum temperaturesremained practically constant during the past century.The seasonal/annual mean temperatures during 1901-2000 are based on data from 31 stations, while theannual mean maximum and minimum temperatureduring 1901-1990 are based on data from 121 stations.Spatially, a significant warming trend has beenobserved along the west coast, in central India, theinterior peninsula and over north-east India, while acooling trend has been observed in north-west Indiaand a pocket in southern India (Figure 3.2).

Extreme weather and climate eventsIn India, the climate and weather are dominated bythe largest seasonal mode of precipitation in the world,due to the summer monsoon circulation. Over andabove this seasonal mode, the precipitation variabilityhas predominant interannual and intra-seasonal

components, giving rise to extremes in seasonalanomalies resulting in large-scale droughts and floods,and also short-period precipitation extremes in theform of heavy rainstorms or prolonged breaks on asynoptic scale. Indeed, rainfall during a typicalmonsoon season is by no means uniformly distributedin time on a regional/local scale, but is marked by afew active spells separated by weak monsoon or breakperiods of little or no rain. Thus, the daily distributionof rainfall at the local level has importantconsequences in terms of the occurrence of extremes.Further, the Indian climate is also marked by coldwaves during winter in the north, and heat wavesduring the pre-monsoon season over most parts ofthe country. Tropical cyclones, affecting the coastalregions through heavy rainfall, high wind speeds andstorm surges, often leave behind widespreaddestruction and loss of life, and constitute a majornatural disaster associated with climatic extremes.Indeed, it is these extremes that have the most visibleimpact on human activities and therefore, receivegreater attention by all sections of the society.

Droughts and Floods: It has already been noted thatthe Indian summer monsoon is a very stable anddependable source of water for the region.Superimposed on this stable picture are seemingly

Figure 3.2: Spatial patterns of linear trends (percentageof mean/100 years) in (a) summer monsoon rainfall;and (b) annual mean surface temperature during 1871-1990.

(a) (b)

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There are four major reasons for droughts in India-delay inthe onset of monsoon/ failure of monsoon, variability ofmonsoon rainfall, long break in monsoon and arealdifference in the persistence of monsoon. Almost a quarterof India’s land area is prone to drought. Areas that receiveup to 60 centimeters of rainfall annually are the most droughtprone. The drought is almost directly linked to the arealvariation in the monsoon, the effect of which lasts formuch longer than the actual span of the monsoon. Themost affected community are the marginal farmersdependent on rainfed agriculture.

Compared to drought, a smaller area is affected by large-scale flooding. However the loss in terms of lives andproperty is much higher. From the approximately 19 Mhaaffected by floods in India about five decades ago, thefigure today stands at about 36 Mha - almost double(CWC,1997). Some of the causes of floods are: Unusuallyhigh rainfall in a short period of time, which leads to highvolume of run-offs, Rivers or other water bodiesoverflowing their banks, Excessive deforestation of hillscan cause floods lower downstream. Inadequate drainagefacilities may cause water to stagnate. Change in thecourse of rivers and in the coastal regions and tropicalcyclones can also cause flooding.

Droughts affecting marginal farmers.

Box 3.2: Impacts of Droughts and floods in India.

Devastation of crops due to extensive flooding.

small year-to-year changes that can be spatially quiteextensive. However, even such small changesconstitute significant interannual variability, leadingto widespread drought and flood situations.Instrumental records over the past 130 years do notindicate any marked long-term trend in the frequenciesof large-scale droughts or floods in the summermonsoon season. The only slow change discernibleis the alternating sequence of multi-decadal periodsof more frequent droughts, followed by periods ofless frequent droughts. This feature is part of the well-known epochal behaviour of the summer monsoon.See Box 3.2 for impacts of floods and droughts inIndia.

Aridity: There are large tracts in north-western Indiaand the interior peninsula that experience aridconditions. Although desertification is a complexenvironmental process involving geomorphologic andatmospheric processes, it is observed that the rainfallregimes generally closely demarcate the arid regionboundaries. In general, during extreme deficient yearsof SW monsoon over the Indian subcontinent, ariditytakes over the semi-arid areas and its spatial extent

continues deep down south to the peninsula. On anaverage, about 19 per cent of the country experiencesarid conditions every year, of which 15 per cent is innorthern India and 4 per cent in the peninsula.

Short-duration rainfall extremes: The spatialpatterns of the mean annual number of rainy daysderived from observed rainfall data are presented inFigure 3.3. A rainy day is defined as a day with arainfall of 2.5 mm and above, as per the operationalpractice of the India Meteorological Department(IMD). The mean annual number of rainy days overIndia varies from less than 20 days over the north-western parts (west Rajasthan and Kutchh region ofGujarat), to more than 180 days in the north-east(Meghalaya). North-eastern India and the southernparts of the west coast are major areas of relativelyhigh mean annual number of rainy days (about 140days). The mean annual number of rainy daysincreases from west to east, particularly in the northernparts of the country. Over central parts of India, thenumber of rainy days is around 40-60 days. Over thewest coast, along the tracks of monsoon disturbancesand near the foothills of the Himalayas, it is around

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Figure 3.3: Spatial patterns of observed meanannual number of rainy days over India.

Figure 3.4: Spatial patterns of observed meanintensity of rainfall (mm/day) over India.

80 days. From the observed spatial pattern of the meanintensity of rainfall per rainy day (Figure. 3.4), it isseen that the intensity varies between 10 mm and 40mm per rainy day over India. The lowest values ofless than 10 mm/day occur in the extreme northernparts of the country. Over north-western India andthe rain-shadow region to the east of the WesternGhats in the peninsula, the intensity is around 10-15mm per rainy day. The highest value of about 40 mm/day occurs along the west coast, as well as in someparts of north-eastern India. Over the rest of thecountry, the intensity of rainfall is of the order of 15-25 mm/day.

Extreme Temperatures: Spatial patterns of observedextreme daily maximum temperatures are shown inFigure 3.5. It has been observed that over the centralparts of India, the maximum temperatures recordedexceed 45°C, while along the west coast, the extrememaximum temperatures recorded range between 35°-40°C. Smaller values of extreme maximumtemperatures of around 25°C have been recorded inHimachal Pradesh in the north. Figure 3.6 shows thespatial pattern of extreme minimum temperatures,which represent the lowest temperature ever recordedin the respective regions. Low-temperature extremesdropping to less than -15°C have been recorded inthe northern most parts of India. Extreme minimumtemperatures below 0°C have also been observed in

Figure 3.5: Spatial patterns of observed extremedaily maximum temperatures (ºC) over India.

the region north of 25°N and west of 80°E.

Cyclonic storms: In the northern Indian Ocean, about16 cyclonic disturbances occur each year, of whichabout six develop into cyclonic storms. The annualnumber of severe cyclonic storms with hurricane forcewinds averages to about 1.3 over the period 1891-1990. During the recent period 1965-1990, the numberwas 2.3. No clear variability pattern appears to be

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a necessary, though not sufficient, condition for theformation and growth of tropical cyclones. Over theIndian Ocean, Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea,significant and consistent warming of the sea surfacehas occurred during the 20th century. Sensitivityexperiments with numerical models suggest thatcyclone intensity may increase with the increasingsea surface temperatures.

CLIMATE MODEL SIMULATIONSOF THE INDIAN CLIMATE

While most global climate models simulate thegeneral migration of tropical rain belts from the australsummer to the boreal summer, some of them miss therainfall maximum in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Apartfrom this, in the Indian monsoon context, the observedmaximum rainfall during the monsoon season alongthe west coast of India, northern Bay of Bengal andadjoining north-east India is not quite realisticallysimulated in many models. This may possibly belinked to the coarse resolution of the models, as theheavy rainfall over these regions is generally inassociation with the steep orography. However, theannual cycle in the simulated precipitation over theIndian region (land and sea) comprising 8ºN; 30ºNand 65ºE; 95ºE showed remarkably similar patterns(Figure 3.8). Most models underestimate the rainfallduring the rainy season. The simulated annual surfaceair temperature patterns over the Indian regiongenerally agree with the observed gross features,

though magnitudes differ from theobserved values in most models. Thepossible biases associated with thecoarse resolution of theAtmosphere-Ocean GeneralCirculation Models (AOGCMs)need to be taken into account whileinterpreting the future climatechange scenarios.

The global atmosphere-oceancoupled models have provided goodrepresentations of the planetary scalefeatures, but their application toregional studies is limited by theircoarse resolution (~300 km).

Developing high resolution models on a global scaleis not only computationally prohibitively expensive

associated with the occurrence of tropical cyclones.While the total frequency of cyclonic storms that formover the Bay of Bengal has remained almost constantover the period 1887-1997, an increase in thefrequency of severe cyclonic storms appears to havetaken place in recent decades (Figure 3.7). Whetherthis is real, or a product of recently enhancedmonitoring technology is, however, not clear. A slightdecreasing trend in the frequency of cyclonicdisturbances and tropical cyclones is apparent duringthe monsoon season. High sea surface temperature is

Figure 3.6: Spatial patterns of observed extremedaily minimum temperatures (ºC) over India.

Figure 3.7: Variation of the frequency of moderateand severe cyclonic storms over the Indian seas.

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Figure 3.8: Observed and simulated Control (CTL)annual cycles of rainfall over India.

for climate change simulations, but also suffers fromerrors due to inadequate representation of high-resolution climate processes worldwide. It is in thiscontext that regional climate models (RCMs) providean opportunity to dynamically downscale globalmodel simulations to superimpose the regional detailof specified regions. As highlighted by Noguer et al.(2002), developing high-resolutionclimate change scenarios helps in:(a) a realistic simulation of thecurrent climate by taking intoaccount fine-scale features of theterrain, etc.; (b) more detailedpredictions of future climatechanges, taking into account localfeatures and responses; (c)representation of the smaller islandsand their unique features; (d) bettersimulation and prediction of extremeclimatic events; and (e) generationof detailed regional data to driveother region-specific modelsanalyzing local-scale impacts.

In the present assessment, the high-resolution simulations for India basedon the second generation HadleyCentre regional climate model(HadRM2) are used. HadRM2 is a high-resolutionclimate model that covers a limited area of the globe,

typically 5,000 km x 5,000 km. Thetypical horizontal resolution ofHadRM2 is 50 km x 50 km. Theregional model reproduces large-scalefeatures of the General CirculationModel (GCM) climate and addsrealistic local detail. For example, therain-shadowing effect of the WesternGhats is closer to the observations(Figure 3.9). The annual cycles ofrainfall and surface air temperatureare also remarkably close to theobserved patterns, whichdemonstrate that the regional modelis able to overcome the large biasesof the GCM in portraying thesefeatures.

In terms of short-duration rainfall, it is observed thatthe spatial pattern of rainy days is well-generated bythe model over the west coast, north-western Indiaand north-eastern India (except for ArunachalPradesh, where it is overestimated to exceed 180days). However, the regional model generallyunderestimates the intensity of rainfall over thecountry, except for some parts in Himachal Pradesh,

Figure 3.9: Spatial patterns of seasonal rainfall overIndia as simulated by a regional climate model(HadRM2; CTL).

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north-eastern India and along the west coast. Whilethe model represents the spatial variation reasonablywell, there is a clear bias in terms of the magnitude,at least by 5 mm per rainy day over a major part ofthe country. Comparing the spatial pattern of one-dayextreme rainfall as generated in control run, it can beconcluded that rainfall extremes are reasonably well-simulated by the model in the region south of 20°N,but north of it, the model underestimates the extremesby around 10 cm/day.

Model-simulated data shows a balance betweensimulated and observed extreme maximumtemperatures in the peninsular region. However, themodel underestimates high-temperature extremes inthe mountainous regions of Kashmir, Sikkim andArunachal Pradesh, and overestimates the extrememaximum temperature by about 5°C over the northernplains. The patterns of extreme minimumtemperatures are well-represented by the model overmost of the country, except over some regions inGujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Bihar, where itunderestimates by about 5°C.

CLIMATE PROJECTIONS

Climate projections at the nationallevelFor assessing the nature of the likely future climatein India at an all-India level, eight AOGCMs (Box3.3) have been run using the IS92a and SRES A2 andB2 scenarios (Box 3.4).

The simulated climate approximately represents theperiod spanning the nominal time scale of 1860-2099,but the individual model years do not correspond toany specific years or events in this period. Consideringall the land-points in India according to the resolutionof each AOGCM, the arithmetic averages of rainfalland temperature fields are worked out to generate all-India monthly data for the entire duration of modelsimulations and for different experiments. Thismonthly data is then used to compute the seasonaltotals/means of rainfall/temperature. Taking 1961-1990 as the baseline period, the seasonal quantitiesare then converted into anomalies (percentagedepartures in the case of rainfall). The resulting timeseries are examined for their likely future changesinto the 21st century (Figure 3.10).

� Canadian Center for Climate Modeling, Canada(CCC).

� Center for Climate System Research, Japan(CCSR).

� Commonwealth Scientific and IndustrialResearch Organization, Australia (CSIRO).

� Deutsches Kilma Rechen Zentrum, Germany(DKRZ).

� Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA(GFDL).

� Hadley Center for Climate Prediction andResearch, UK (HadCM3).

� Max-Planck Institute, Germany (MPI).� National Center for Atmospheric Research,

USA (NCAR).

Box 3.3. Coupled AOGCM used forderiving climate change projections

Box 3.4. Scenarios used in climatemodel experiments� CTL: The control integration, in which the

atmospheric forcing in terms of the GHGconcentration is kept constant, typically at 1990values, has been performed for a period of overseveral hundred years in length. The climatologyconstructed from the CTL run represents thecurrent climate and serves as a reference for allthe time-dependent forcing experiments.

� IS92a Scenario of GHG increase: In thisexperiment, the GHG forcing is increasedgradually to represent the observed changes inforcing due to all the GHG from 1860 to 1990.For the future time period 1990-2099, the forcingis increased at a compounded rate of 1 per centper year (relative to 1990 values), representingthe IS92a emissions scenario.

� A2 Scenario of SRES (A2): A2 scenario fallsin the category of ‘Medium-High’ emissions.The cumulative global carbon emissionsbetween 2000 and 2100 for this scenario is takento be 1862 GtC (1GtC = 1 giga or Bt of Carbon;1 tonne of Carbon = 3.67 tonnes of CO

2).

� B2 Scenario of SRES (B2): B2 scenario fallsin the category of ‘Medium-Low’ emissions.

GHG simulations with IS92a scenarios show markedincrease in both rainfall and temperature by the endof the 21st century relative to the baseline. There is aconsiderable spread among the models in the

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magnitudes of both precipitation and temperatureprojections, but more conspicuously in the case ofsummer monsoon rainfall. The increase in rainfallfrom the baseline period (1961-1990) to the end ofthe 21

st century ranges between 15 per cent and 40

per cent among the models. In the case of mean annualtemperature, the increase is of the order of 3ºC to 6ºC.It is apparent that the change in rainfall under A2 andB2 scenarios is not as high as that noted earlier inIS92a scenarios (Figure 3.10). Compared to the A2scenario, the B2 simulations show subdued trends inthe future. The temperature, however, showscomparable increasing trends in IS92a and A2, butB2 shows slightly lower trends.

GCM’s project enhancedprecipitation during the monsoonseason, particularly over the north-western parts of India. However, themagnitudes of projected changediffer considerably from one modelto the other, when projections ofrainfall are considered at state level(Figure 3.11). There is very little orno change noted in the monsoonrainfall over a major part ofpeninsular India. It is important tonote here, that the maximum changein rainfall occurs over theclimatologically low rainfall regionof north-western India. Theimplications of such change overthis region have to be carefullyassessed in future studies. As far asthe temperature trends in the futureare concerned, all the models showpositive trends indicatingwidespread warming into the future(Figure 3.11). Examination of thespatial patterns of annualtemperature changes in the twofuture time slices for differentmodels indicates that the warmingis more pronounced over thenorthern states of India. Thedifferent models/experiments

generally indicate the increase of temperature to beof the order of 2-5°C across the country. The warmingis generally higher in the IS92a scenario runscompared to A2 and B2 simulations. Also, thewarming is more pronounced during winter and post-monsoon months, compared to the rest of the year.Interestingly, this is a conspicuous feature of theobserved temperature trends from the instrumentaldata analyses over India.

Climate Projections at the regionallevelTo provide a general idea of the scenarios for differentstates of India, the expected changes in monsoonrainfall and mean annual temperature have beencomputed for the 2050s (Figure 3.11). It can be seenthat there is an all-round increase in temperatures,and a general increase in monsoon precipitation.

Figure 3.10: AOGCM projections of all-India meansummer monsoon rainfall and annual mean surfaceair temperature up to the year 2100, for CTL IS92aand SRES A2 and B2 scenarios.

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Figure 3.11:. AOGCM-based projections for the2050s, of summer monsoon rainfall and meanannual temperature of different states of India,relative to the baseline period of 1961-90.

However, there is a large spatial variation in the relativeincrease in monsoon precipitation, obviously due tothe climatological patterns of rainfall.

It must be mentioned here that these scenarios arebased on very coarse resolution global climate models,and the values for the smaller states are based on oneor two grid points and therefore, may be subject tolarge biases related to orography and other localcharacteristics. To overcome this limitation, it is usefulto consider the projections based on high-resolutionregional climate models. Work on this aspect is in

progress, but some preliminaryscenarios based on HadRM2, for theIS92a scenario for the future timeslice of 2041-2060 may beconsidered here. In the regionalclimate model, under increasingatmospheric GHG concentrations,the mean surface temperatures areseen to increase everywhere in theregion, in all the seasons (Figure3.12). The warming is morepronounced over land areas, with themaximum increase over northernIndia. The warming is also relativelygreater in winter and post-monsoonseasons. The summer monsoonseason is marked by a relativelylower magnitude of warming. Thisseasonal asymmetry of greenhousewarming over India has aremarkable resemblance to that seenin the case of observed trends in all-India mean surface temperaturesover the past century. However, thespatial patterns of warming duringthe monsoon season indicate that themaximum warming occurs overnorthern India, with a secondarymaximum over the easternpeninsula.

Regarding the precipitationresponse, the monsoon season is of prime importance,given the region’s critical dependence on summermonsoon rainfall. In this season, the precipitationresponse is more variable with a decrease seen overthe land towards the west and increase over the IndianOcean. The central and the eastern regions of thecountry do not show much variability with respect tothe control runs (Figure 3.13). In general, on an annualscale, large decreases are seen over the western partof India mainly over the oceanic areas, and increasesover the north-eastern parts of the country. Thesedifferences in future rainfall change patterns inHadRM2, compared to the AOGCMs, are possiblyrelated to the use of the Hadley Center Model(HadCM2) projections to drive the HadRM2.Significant differences have been noted in the futurerainfall change patterns between HadCM2 and

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Figure 3.12:. Projections of seasonal surface airtemperature for the period 2041-2060, based on theregional climate model HadRM2.

HadCM3. While HadCM2 shows atendency for reduced rainfall overIndia, HadCM3 shows increasedrainfall into the 21

st century. Further

work using more recent versions ofthe regional model as well as itsboundary forcing is in progress toreduce such uncertainties.

Projections of extremesin rainfall andtemperatureKeeping in view the need to analyzethe changes on a smaller space-timescale to derive information relatedto the extremes, only regional climatemodel results are discussed here.HadRM2 is more reliable inrepresenting the observed patternsof extremes in rainfall and

temperature. Considering the control run of the modelas the baseline Climatology representing the presentday conditions, the future scenarios representing the2050s, under the IS92a scenario of GHG emissions,are derived. In the IS92a scenario, the model showedan overall decrease in the number of rainy days over

a major part of the country (Figure3.14). This decrease is more inwestern and central parts of thecountry (by more than 15 days) whilealong the foothills of Himalayas(Uttaranchal) and in north-east Indiathe number of rainy days is found toincrease by 5-10 days. An increasein GHG concentrations may lead tooverall increase in the rainy dayintensity by 1-4 mm/day, except forsmall areas in north-western India,where the rainfall intensitiesdecrease by 1 mm/day (Figure 3.15).The model results also indicate thatthere will be an overall increase inthe highest one-day rainfall over amajor part of the Indian region. Thisincrease may be up to 20 cm/day.However, in some parts of north-

western India, a decrease in extreme rainfall up toabout 10 cm/day has been noticed in the GHGexperiment.

Figure 3.13:. Projections of seasonal precipitationfor the period 2041-2060, based on the regionalclimate model HadRM2.

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Figure 3.14: Projections of mean incrementalannual number of rainy days for the period 2041-2060, based on the regional climate modelHadRM2.

Figure 3.15: Projections of mean incremental rainyday intensity (mm/day) for the period 2041-2060,based on the regional climate model HadRM2.

SummaryThe regional model (HadRM2, IS92a scenario) is ableto overcome the large biases of the GCM in portrayingthe annual cycles of rainfall and surface airtemperature. The projections of climate variables forthe 2050s, under the IS92a scenario of GHG emissionsare summarized below;

� An all-round increase in temperatures, and ageneral increase in monsoon precipitation in themonsoon season. The precipitation response ismore variable with a decrease over the landtowards the west and an increase over the IndianOcean.

� A large spatial variation in the relative increase inmonsoon precipitation

� An overall decrease in the number of rainy daysover a major part of the country

� An overall increase in the rainy day intensity by1-4 mm/day

� An increase in the temperature (maximum andminimum) of the order of 2-4°C over the southernregion which may exceed 4°C over the northernregion

Uncertainties in prediction: Regionally, there arelarge differences among different GCMs, especiallyin precipitation-change patterns over the Indiansubcontinent. Most GCM models project enhanced

precipitation during the monsoon season, particularlyover the north-western parts of India. However, themagnitudes of projected change differ considerablyfrom one model to the other. Uncertainties exist inthe projections of climate models specificallyconcerning their spatial resolutions. The GCMs arerobust in projecting temperature changes rather thanrainfall changes. Regional climate models also havelarge uncertainty (rainfall projection using HadRM2versus HadRM3), but are still evolving. It is expectedthat uncertainty would reduce as the regional climatemodels evolve. Thus, caution must be exercised whenusing climate projections, though there is a robustprojection of significant warming.

Climate Change Scenario Links to other Sectors:According to the Second and Third AssessmentReport of the IPCC at the global and continental level,the projected climate change is likely to impact thenatural ecosystems and socio-economic systemsUnder the National Communications project theimpacts of projected climate change are analyzed fordifferent sectors in the following sections. Theassessment of climate change impacts are made usingRCM projections for some sectors (for example, waterresources and forest ecosystems). The impacts,vulnerability and adaptation options are presentedfor different sectors in the following sections.

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CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ONWATER RESOURCES

Present Indian Water ResourcesScenarioIndia is a land of many rivers and mountains. Itsgeographical area of 328.726 Mha is covered by alarge number of small and big rivers. Over 70 percent of India’s population of one billion is rural andagriculturally oriented, for whom these rivers are thesource of their livelihood and prosperity.

Climate plays a very decisive factor in water resourceavailability of a country. Rainfall in India is mainlydependent on the SW monsoon between June toSeptember, and the north-east monsoon betweenOctober and November. The variations in temperatureare also marked over the Indian subcontinent. Duringthe winter season from November to February, thetemperature decreases from south to north due to theeffect of continental winds over most of the country.Evapotranspiration rates closely follow the climaticseasons, and reach their peak in the summer monthsof April and May. The central areas of the countrydisplay the highest evapotranspiration rates duringthis period. After the onset of monsoon, potentialevapotranspiration decreases generally all over thecountry.

There are 12 major rivers in India (with individualcatchment areas of more than 10 Mha), with acumulative catchment area of 252.8 Mha. Of the majorrivers, the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna system is thelargest, with a catchment area of about 110 Mha, thatis more than 43 per cent of the cumulative catchmentarea of all the major rivers in the country. This riversystem is the major contributor to the surface waterresources potential of the country. Its share is about60 per cent of the total water resource potential of thevarious rivers.

The other major rivers with a catchment area of morethan 10 Mha each are the Indus (32.1 Mha); Godavari(31.3 Mha); Krishna (25.9 Mha); and the Mahanadi(14.2 Mha). The total catchment area of medium riversis about 25 Mha and Subernarekha, with a 1.9 Mhacatchment area, is the largest river amongst themedium rivers in the country.

The annual precipitation, including snowfall, whichis the main source of the water in the country, isestimated to be of the order of 4’000 km3. There are35 meteorological sub-divisions with respect to therainfall variability. The water resources potential ofthe country (occurring as natural run-off in the rivers)is about 1,869 km3, as per the latest basin-wiseestimates made by the Central Water Commission.While India is considered rich in terms of annualrainfall and total water resources, its unevengeographical distribution causes severe regional andtemporal shortages.

Water Demand: Water is the most critical componentof life support systems. India shares about 16 per centof the global population but it has only 4 per cent ofthe total water resource. The irrigation sector with 83per cent of use is the main consumer of water. Basedon the 1991 Census, the per capita availability of waterworks out to 1,967 m3. Due to various constraints oftopography, and uneven distribution of resources overspace and time, it has been estimated that only about1,122 km3 of its total potential can be put to beneficialuse, of which 690 km3 is surface water resources.Further, about 40 per cent of the utilizable surfacewater resources are presently in the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna system. In a majority of riverbasins, the present utilization is significantly high andis in the range of 50 per cent to 95 per cent of utilizablesurface resources. However, in rivers such as theNarmada and Mahanadi, the percentage utilization isquite low. The corresponding values for these basinsare 23 per cent and 34 per cent, respectively.

On the other hand, the ground water is another majorcomponent of the total available water resources. Inthe coming years the ground water utilization is likelyto increase manifold for the expansion of irrigatedagriculture and to achieve national targets of foodproduction. Although the ground water is an annuallyreplenishable resource, its availability is non-uniformin space and time.

Based on the norms given by the Ground WaterOverexploitation Committee, the state governmentsand the Central Ground Water Board computed thegross ground water recharge as 431.42 km3, and thenet recharge (70 per cent of the gross) as 301.99 km3.

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With respect to total water requirements, as per therecent estimates made by the Ministry of WaterResources, the total withdrawal/utilization for varioususes has been estimated for the present and the futureyears. (Table 3.1).

According to the Ministry of Water Resources, thewater availability may be able to meet therequirements till the year 2050, through integratedwater management plans. The issue of demandmanagement has been given due importance in orderto achieve higher levels of water use efficiencies.However, this analysis does not take into account anypossible impact due to climate change. Based on theextent and level of climate change impacts, all thesecomputations will have to be reworked.

Methods and Model Used forSimulation of Surface Runoff atRiver Basin LevelThe present assessment aims to determine the wateravailability under a projected climate change scenario,initially for the HadRM2 control scenario case,without incorporating any man-made changes such

as dams, diversions, etc. Second, the same frameworkis used to predict the impact of climate change, usingthe HadRM2 climate change scenario on the currentavailability of water resources, with the assumptionthat the land use will not change over time.

SWAT Model: The SWAT water balance model hasbeen used for the river basins to carry out thehydrologic modelling of the country. The SWATmodel simulates the hydrologic cycle in daily timesteps. The SWAT Model routes water from individualwatersheds, through the major river basin systems.SWAT is a distributed, continuous, daily hydrologicalmodel with a GIS interface for pre- and post-processing of the data and outputs.

Data used for modelling: The SWAT model requiresdata on terrain, land-use, soil and weather forassessment of water resources availability at thedesired locations of the drainage basin. Data(1:250,000 scale) for all the river basins of the country,barring the Brahmaputra and Indus, been used. Thesnowbound areas of the Ganga have also not beenmodelled due to the lack of appropriate data.

Table 3.1: Utilizable Water, Requirement and Return Flow Based on National Average (in km3).

Source: NCIWRD, 1999.

Particulars 1997– 2010 2025 20501998 Low High Low High Low High

Demand Demand Demand Demand Demand Demand

Utilizable WaterSurface 690 690 690 690 690 690 690Ground 396 396 396 396 396 396 396Canal irrigation 90 90 90 90 90 90 90Total 996 996 996 996 996 996 996Total Water RequirementSurface 399 447 458 497 545 641 752Ground 230 247 252 287 298 332 428Total 629 694 710 784 843 973 1180Return flowSurface 43 52 52 70 74 91 104Ground 143 144 148 127 141 122 155Total 186 196 200 197 215 213 259Residual Utilizable WaterSurface 334 295 284 263 219 140 42Ground 219 203 202 146 149 96 33Total 553 498 486 409 368 236 75

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Digital Elevation Model (DEM); is generated usingcontours taken from the 1:250,000 scale ADC worldtopographic map.

Watershed (sub basin); automatic delineatedwatersheds by using the DEM as input and the finaloutflow point on each river basin as the pour point.Figure 3.16 depicts the modelled river basins(automatically delineated using GIS), with theirrespective sub-basins

Daily Weather Data; generated in transientexperiments by the Hadley Center for ClimatePrediction, UK, at a resolution of 0.44° × 0.44° latitudeby longitude grid points (red dots in Figure 3.16 forpresent/control (1981–2000) and future/GHG(2041–2060) climate data.

Land Cover/Land-Use Layer; classified land coverusing remote sensing by the University of MarylandGlobal Land Cover Facility (13 categories, Source:Global Land Cover, University of Maryland GlobalLand cover Facility), with a resolution of 1 km gridcell size has been used.

Soil Layer; soil map adapted from FAO Digital Soil

Map of the World and Derived Soil Properties (ver3.5, FAO, 1995) with a resolution of 1: 5,000,000.

Simulated water balance at river-basin bevel: TheSWAT model has been used on each of the river basinsseparately using daily weather generated by theHadRM2 control climate scenario (1981- 2000). Themodel has been used with the assumption that everyriver basin is a virgin area without any man-madechange incorporated, which is reasonable for makinga preliminary assessment. However, a generalcountry-wide framework has been created that canbe used conveniently for adding the additionalinformation at various scales.

The model has been run using climate scenarios forthe period 2041 to 2060, without changing the land-use pattern. The outputs of these two scenarios havebeen analyzed with respect to the possible impactson the run-off, soil moisture and actualevapotranspiration.

The model generates detailed outputs at daily intervalon flow at sub-basin outflow points, actualevapotranspiration and soil moisture status. Furthersub-divisions of the total flow, such as surface and

sub-surface run-off are alsoavailable. It is also possible toevaluate the recharge to the groundwater on a daily basis.

Implications of ClimateChange on WaterAvailabilityFigure 3.17 shows the plot of thesewater balance components for thecontrol and Climate ChangeScenarios for the 12 river basins.Table 3.2 depicts the comparison ofwater balance componentsexpressed as percentage of rainfallfor control as well as ClimateChange Scenarios. One can observethat the impacts are different indifferent catchments. The increasein rainfall due to climate changedoes not result in an increase in the

surface run-off as may be generally predicted. Forexample, in the case of the Cauvery river basin, an

Figure 3.16: Modelled river basins along with RCMGrid Locations.

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Figure 3.17: Trends in water balance for CTL and GHG climate scenarios.

Table 3.2: Comparison of change in Water Balance Components as a percentage of rainfall.

Basins Scenario Rainfall Run-off As a proportion Actual ET As a proportionmm mm of Rainfall (%) mm of Rainfall (%)

Cauvery Control 1309.0 661.2 50.5 601.6 46.0GHG 1344.0 650.4 48.4 646.8 48.1

Brahmani Control 1384.8 711.5 51.4 628.8 45.4GHG 1633.7 886.1 54.2 698.8 42.8

Godavari Control 1292.8 622.8 48.2 624.1 48.3GHG 1368.6 691.5 50.5 628.3 45.9

Krishna Control 1013.0 393.6 38.9 585.0 57.7GHG 954.4 346.9 36.4 575.6 60.3

Luni Control 317.3 15.5 4.9 316.5 99.7GHG 195.3 6.6 3.4 207.3 106.1

Mahanadi Control 1269.5 612.3 48.2 613.5 48.3GHG 1505.3 784.0 52.1 674.1 44.8

Mahi Control 655.1 133.9 20.4 501.0 76.5GHG 539.3 100.0 18.5 422.7 78.4

Narmada Control 973.5 353.4 36.3 586.8 60.3GHG 949.8 359.4 37.8 556.6 58.6

Pennar Control 723.2 148.6 20.6 556.7 77.0GHG 676.2 110.2 16.3 551.7 81.6

Tapi Control 928.6 311.2 33.5 587.9 63.3GHG 884.2 324.9 36.7 529.3 59.9

Ganga Control 1126.9 495.4 44.0 535.0 47.5GHG 1249.6 554.6 44.4 587.2 47.0

Sabarmati Control 499.4 57.0 11.4 433.1 86.7GHG 303.0 16.6 5.5 286.0 94.4

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Figure 3.18: Change in water balance for CTL and GHG climate scenarios.

increase of 2.7 per cent has been projected in therainfall, but the run-off is projected to reduce by about2 per cent and the evapotranspiration to increase byabout 2 per cent. This may be either due to increasein temperature and/or change in rainfall distributionin time. Similarly, a reduction in rainfall in theNarmada is likely to result in an increase in the run-off and a reduction in the evapotranspiration, that isagain contrary to the usual myth. This increase in run-off may be due to intense rainfall as a consequence ofclimate change. Therefore, it is important to note herethat these inferences have become possible since adaily computational time step has been used in thedistributed hydrological modelling framework. Thisrealistically simulates the complex spatial andtemporal variability inherent in the natural systems.

It may be observed that even though an increase inprecipitation is projected for the Mahanadi, Brahmani,Ganga, Godavari, and Cauvery basins for the ClimateChange Scenario, the corresponding total run-off forall these basins has not necessarily increased (Figure3.18). For example, the Cauvery and Ganga show adecrease in the total run-off. This may be due to anincrease in evapotranspiration on account of increasedtemperatures or variation in the distribution of rainfall.

In the remaining basins, a decrease in precipitation is

projected. The resultant total run-off for the majorityof the cases, except for the Narmada and Tapi, isprojected to decline. As expected, the magnitude ofsuch variations is not uniform, since they are governedby many factors such as land use, soil characteristicsand the status of soil moisture. The Sabarmati andLuni basins are likely to experience a decrease inprecipitation and consequent decrease of total run-off to the tune of two-thirds of the prevailing run-off.This may lead to severe drought conditions under afuture Climate Change Scenario.

The vulnerability of water resources has been assessedwith respect to droughts and floods. Rainfall, run-offand actual evapotranspiration have been selected fromthe available model outputs, since they mainly governthese two extreme impacts due to climate change.

Droughts: Drought indices are widely used for theassessment of drought severity by indicating relativedryness or wetness affecting water sensitive regions.A soil moisture index has been developed to assessdrought severity, using SWAT output that incorporatesthe spatial variability, to focus on agricultural droughtwhere severity implies cumulative water deficiency.

The spatial and temporal distribution of droughtconditions has been depicted in Figure 3.19. The

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spatial variability of concurrent severity of drought isdepicted by picking up the most severe years (in termsof number of drought weeks) in each sub-basin(depicted by graduated colour in the figure). Thelegend also shows the number of sub-basins wheresevere concurrent conditions prevailed in that year.This depiction is only with respect to the severestyears for each sub-basin. It may be observed that thereare three years, namely 1981, 1982 and 1983, thathad on an average, one-fourth of the sub-basinscovered under severe drought conditionssimultaneously. The corresponding analysis on theClimate Change Scenario projects that there is onlyone year where the drought conditions are expectedover one-third of India (61 out of 188 sub-basins).For the next two years, a relatively smaller part (lessthan 30 sub-basins) is likely to experience severedrought conditions simultaneously. In other words,the drought situation under the Climate changescenario may be marginally lower in terms ofconcurrent drought conditions.

Figure 3.19 also depicts the results of the droughtanalysis with respect to the intensity of drought weeksover the next 20 years in each sub-basin. The size ofthe green dot reveals the number of such droughtweeks. A closer look at the figure suggests that thereare varying trends with respect to this criterion. There

are two pockets that have been identified (refer tocircle 1 and circle 2 in Figure 3.19). In the onecovering parts of the Sabarmati and Mahi (circle 1),the Climate Change Scenario may result in severedrought conditions in comparison to the controlscenario. In areas covering parts of the Mahanadi andBrahmani (circle 2), the drought conditions are likelyto be less severe under the Climate Change Scenario.

Floods: A Vulnerability assessment with respect tofloods has been carried out using the daily outflowdischarge from each sub-basin of the SWAT output.These discharges have been analyzed with respect tothe peaks only in the absence of other relevantinformation, such as gauge discharge data and gaugelocations. The maximum daily peak discharge hasbeen identified for each year and for each sub-basin.A simple analysis has been performed to identify thosebasins where flooding conditions may deteriorateunder the Climate Change Scenario.

Figure 3.20 shows the spatial distribution of annualmaximum daily peak for the 19

th year for the control

scenario (as a sample year) along with the 20-yearbar charts for control and Climate Change Scenarios,for each of the sub-basins of the Mahanadi. The figurealso depicts two maximum annual peaks for theClimate Change Scenario for the furthest downstream

Figure 3.19: Spatial and temporal distribution of drought conditions.

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Figure 3.20: Annual maximum daily peakdischarges for sub-basins of the Mahanadi.

Figure 3.21: Broad variation in vulnerability ofdifferent regions to projected climate change.

river basins of the Godavari,Brahmani and Mahanadi areprojected to experience watershortages only in a few locations.

Limitations of the Study: Thewater availability derived for theHadRM2 control scenario case inspace and time does not incorporateany human interventions such asdams and diversions. The sameframework has then been used topredict the impact of climate change(using the HadRM2 GHG scenario),with the assumption that the land usewill not change over time. The ‘hotspots’ have been identified only withrespect to the natural boundaries in

the form of sub-basins of the river systems. Beforethe adaptation issues are addressed, it is imperativeto develop a better understanding of these hot spotsby qualifying these geographic areas with respect totheir populations and ecosystems. Box 3.5 lists some

sub-basin (21). It may be observed that these peaksare more than double the magnitude of the maximumpeak of the control scenario.

Overall impact andvulnerability: The preliminaryassessment has revealed thatunder the GHG scenario, theseverity of droughts and intensityof floods in various parts of Indiais projected to increase. Further,there is a general reduction in thequantity of the available run-offunder the GHG scenario (Figure3.21). Luni, the west flowingriver of Kutchh and Saurastraoccupying about one-fourths ofthe area of Gujarat and 60 percent of the area of Rajasthan arelikely to experience acutephysical water scarce conditions.The river basins of Mahi, Pennar,Sabarmati and Tapi are likely toexperience constant waterscarcities and shortage. The riverbasins of Cauvery, Ganga,Narmada and Krishna are likely to experienceseasonal or regular water-stressed conditions. The

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of the likely effects of climate change on ground waterresources and on the glaciers in India.

Practices for VulnerabilityReduction

Government Policies and ProgrammesThe Government of India, as well as several stategovernments have launched various programmes toconserve and develop water resources for agriculturaland domestic sectors. These programmes, which aimat conservation and sustainable use of water resources,also reduce vulnerability to water stress. Thecentrally-sponsored scheme for soil conservation forthe enhancement of productivity of degraded areas inthe catchments of River Valley Projects and FloodProne Rivers (RVP and FPR) is being implementedon a watershed basis in 45 selected catchmentsthroughout the country. Other schemes include theDrought Prone Areas Programme (DPAP), DesertDevelopment Programme (DDP), National WatershedDevelopment Programme for Rainfed Areas

(NWDPRA), Soil, Water and Tree Conservation(Operation Soil Watch), Operational research projectson Integrated Watershed Management, and theJawahar Rojgar Yojana (JRY). All these programmeshad definite objectives: improvement of productivityof catchment areas, optimum use of soil, land, waterand their conservation, employment generation, etc.

Watershed Development Programme: Thisprogramme has been in operation for nearly 40 years.It has emphasized the importance of soil and waterconservation and people’s participation throughWatershed Associations in planning and management.Overall national objectives of reducing the adverseimpact of droughts, improving/stabilizing theproduction of important rainfed crops like pulses andoilseeds, and controlling siltation of reservoirs, havenot been achieved to a satisfactory level. However,the impact of some of the watershed projects inreducing siltation, expansion of cropped area, increasein cropping intensity and grain/biomass yields hasbeen very pronounced and visible on the ground. The

Box 3.5: Ground WaterIt is estimated that ground water levels have already declined in about 0.34 million km2. Although efforts arebeing made for improved water management practices, like water conservation, artificial recharge andwatershed management, utilization of non-conventional energy and integrated water development, theprojected water demand of a minimum 980 BCM during 2050 will require intensive development of groundwater resources, exploiting both dynamic and in-storage potential. It is apparent that the projected climatechange leading to global warming, sea-level rise and melting of glaciers will disturb the water balance indifferent parts of India and quality of ground water along the coastal track. Possible effects of climatechange on ground water are:� changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration may influence ground water recharge;� rising sea levels may lead to increased saline intrusion of coastal and island aquifers;� increased rainfall intensity may lead to higher run-off and less recharge; and� increased flood events may affect groundwater quality in alluvial aquifers.

Climate Change Impact Assessment on Uttaranchal Himalayan Glaciers� The glaciers and the snowfields in the Himalayas are on the decline.� The rate of retreat of the snout of Gangotri glacier demonstrated a sharp rise in the first half of the 20

th

century. This trend continued up to around the 1970s, and subsequently there has been a gradual declinein its rate of retreat.

� The diminishing rate of retreat of the snout of the Gangotri glacier could be a consequence of the diminishingrate of rise in the temperatures.

� Although the warming processes continue unabated, the rate of rise in temperatures in the Gangotriglacier area has nevertheless demonstrated a marked gradual decline since the last quarter of the pastcentury.

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watershed development programme has emphasizedsoil and water conservation efforts/methods, but noton productivity-linked best agronomic practices.

Command Area Development Programme (CAD):This programme has a positive impact on irrigationwater utilization, irrigation intensity, agriculturalproductivity, and soil and water environment. It hasbeen felt that the main emphasis of CAD has so farbeen on physical works, such as construction of fieldchannels and on-farm development work.

Crop Diversification: Crop diversification methodssuch as crop rotation, mixed cropping and doublecropping, reduce the vulnerability of crop yields. Cropdiversification has also been found to result in reducederosion, improved soil fertility, improved crop yield,reduced risk of crop failure and enhanced watersavings.

Expansion of Irrigation and Irrigation WaterManagement: Irrigation reduces the vulnerability ofcrop yields to the vagaries of rainfall. India hasimplemented a large programme to expand irrigationfrom diverse sources. However, about 60 per cent ofthe net sown area is still under rainfed cropping.Further, the water resources need to be managedefficiently so that wastage is minimized. Managementissues should include linkages with the farmers,

command area development, water conservationtechniques, participatory irrigation management andinstitutional reforms. All reforms must be backed byresearch and diagnostic analysis for optimal results.The efficiency of existing systems needs to beenhanced such that the savings in water is utilizedto increase irrigation intensity. Irrigation consumesnearly 83 per cent of water being used at present.It is estimated that even in the year 2050, it willcontinue to consume about 79 per cent of the totalconsumption. Even a nominal saving of 10 per centin irrigation water can result in an increase in theavailability of water for domestic and industrial usesby about 40 per cent in the long term. Such increasemay also be used to offset the impacts of climatechange in areas where reduction in water availabilityis projected.

Flood Control and Flood Management: Flooding isa major problem in the Himalayan rivers. About 40Mha, which is close to one-eighth of the geographicalarea of the country, is vulnerable to floods. Floodprotection works in the form of flood embankmentsand reservoirs have not proved very useful. It has beenfelt that it may not be possible to provide completeprotection against floods. It is recommended that Indiashould lay more emphasis thus on the efficientmanagement of flood plains, flood proofing, includingdisaster preparedness and response planning, flood

forecasting and warning, and manyother non-structural measures.

The National Flood Commission(Rashtriya Barh Ayog) was set up in1976 by the Government of India toreview and evaluate the floodprotection measures undertakensince 1954, and to evolve acomprehensive approach to theproblem of floods. .

In 1996, Government of India set upa Task Force to review the impactof recommendations of theRashtriya Barh Ayog and analyze thestrategies evolved so far formitigating flood problems andsuggest both short-term and long-term measures.Some of the traditional water conservation techniques.

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information is then translated into early warning, andsubsequently appropriate drought protection measuresare taken. Some of the possible supply side measuresmay include augmentation of the supply of water bysustainable extraction and use of surface water andgroundwater in the local area, and long distancetransfers of water from surface and groundwatersources.

Improving the water availability through the year,revival of diverse and community-based irrigationsystems, soil and water conservation, equitable waterdistribution, traditional water conservation practices,and groundwater recharge, are examples of adaptationstrategies (see Box 3.6). The Government of India isalso envisaging the linking of rivers to mitigatedroughts, as well as floods in the long term.

Common Framework for Adaptation Strategy: Thisimplies that a common framework is essential to becreated at the country level that should be used

Farmers PracticesTraditionally, farmers observe a number of practicesto adapt to climate variability, for example, inter-cropping, mixed cropping, agro-forestry and animalhusbandry (sheep rearing).

The vulnerability to increased water stress can bereduced through the participation of farmers inimproved management of irrigation, adopting localrainwater harvesting systems, watersheddevelopment, low-cost drip irrigation, resourceconserving technologies, such as zero tillage, bedplanting, and adoption of multiple crops or cropdiversification, etc.

Adaptation StrategiesThe projected impact of climate change is likely toexacerbate the water stress and shortages in someregions and also increased flooding in others. Thus,there is a need to develop and implement adaptationmeasures. These strategies may range from change inland use and cropping patterns to water conservation,flood warning systems, crop insurance, etc.

The strategy for coping with the climate changeimpacts on national water resources will be similarto the current strategies for coping with the ever-increasing demands and shortages. A prerequisite toadaptation is the application of an Integrated WaterResources Management strategy at different levels ofusage from individual households to localcommunities, and watersheds to catchments. Thecurrent strategies to adapt to the two extreme events,namely floods and droughts, will hold good even tothe projected impacts of climate change. The presentstructural or non-structural measures of floodprotection will continue to be valid. Structuralmeasures include the construction of dams for floodcontrol by flattening flood peaks, and the constructionof levies and dikes to safeguard the installations fromflooding. Non-structural measures may include floodplain zoning, flood forecasting systems, floodinsurance and flood preparedness.

Traditional as well as technological approaches areused to cope with the risk of drought. Technologicalmanagement of drought uses medium (seasonal) tolong-term (annual to decadal) forecasts that areformulated using appropriate models. This

Box 3.6: Ground water harvestingfor reviving traditional step wellsMany cities in India have traditional waterharvesting and conservation structures, calledBaolis or step wells. These can be revived andeffectively used to recharge ground water. Waterharvesting in neighbouring areas recharges thesewells natuarally and can supply water to theneighbourhood during the lean period. The nationalcapital Delhi is dotted with Baolis constructed bythe Mughals in India. Water is a scarce commodityin Delhi specially during the summers. The IndianNational Trust for Arts and Culture (INTACH) hastaken an initiative to revive these step wells inDelhi.

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towards implementing the integrated watershedmanagement strategy starting from the GramPanchayat (village council) to the river-basin levelin a unified manner. Integrated watershedmanagement does not merely imply the amalgamationof different activities to be undertaken within ahydrological unit. It also requires the collation ofrelevant information, so as to evaluate the cause andeffect of all the proposed actions. This framework willneed regular maintenance and updating to fully reflectthe most accurate ground truth data. Local planningand management strategies have to be evolved andvalidated through the proposed framework, so as togenerate and evaluate various options suitable forlocal conditions.

One of the strategies may be to opt for artificialrestoration of the hydrological system by theenhancement of water storage and infiltration ofrainfall in urban areas and in river basins in order tomaintain the original water balance. This will beuseful for ecological and water resources restorationand implementation of nature-oriented riverimprovement works.

There is no single ‘best’ coping strategy. The bestchoice is a function of many factors pertaining toeconomic efficiency, risk reduction, robustness,resilience, reliability, etc. The emerging technologiesfor short-term weather forecast for real-time watermanagement and operations have a large potential toenhance the coping capabilities to climate variabilityand change. Such advancements will greatly improvethe irrigation water managementefficiency. Biotechnology holdspromise that may help in increasingcrop yields while reducing the waterrequirement and developing cropsthat are less dependent on water.This has a large potential andrelevance in water-stressed areas, aswell as areas with low water quality.

In general, the financial,technological and institutionalbarriers usually hamper theimplementation of adaptationmeasures to climate variability and change. Although,the current water policy of India aims at integrated

water resources development and management totackle water stress, its implementation is constrainedby financial and technological limitations.

The projected impacts of climate change are likely toexacerbate the water stress and shortages in someregions and increase the frequency and intensity offloods and droughts. However, there are uncertaintiesin the climate change projections and impactassessment on water resources at the regional level.Thus, there is a need to improve the reliability ofclimate change projections at the regional level andits integration in the modelling to project impacts onwater resources at the regional level, if not the localor watershed level.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ONAGRICULTURE

Indian Agriculture scenarioFood grain production in India has increasedspectacularly due to the Green Revolution from 50Mt in 1951 to 212 Mt in 2002, and the mean cerealproductivity has increased from 500 kg ha

-1 to almost

1800 kg ha-1. These increases were largely the result

of area expansion, large-scale cultivation of new high-yielding semi-dwarf varieties since the early 1960s,and the increased application of irrigation, fertilizersand biocides, supported by progressive governmentpolicies (Figure 3.22). Today, we have 190 Mha grosssown area (142 Mha net sown area), and 40 per centof this is irrigated. There have been similar revolutionsin the production of milk, fish, eggs, sugar, and a few

Figure 3.22: Change with time in area, productionand yield of food grains.

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Despite this progress, food production in India, onan aggregated scale, is still considerably dependenton the rainfall quantity and its distribution. Thesummer monsoon (June through September)contributes 78 per cent of India’s annual rainfalland is a major water resource. It is important torecognize that the Green Revolution was largelyconfined to the irrigated areas. In the past 50 years,there have been around 15 major droughts, due towhich the productivity of rainfed crops in those yearswas affected. Limited options of other income andwidespread poverty continue to threaten the livelihoodsecurity of millions of small and marginal farmers inthis region.

The food security of India may be at risk once againin the future, due to the continued population growth.By 2050, India’s population is projected to grow to1.6 billion. This rapid and continuing increase in thepopulation implies a greater demand for food. Thedemand for rice and wheat, the predominant staplefoods, is expected to increase to 122 and 103 Mt,respectively, by 2020, assuming medium incomegrowth (Table 3.3). The demand for pulses, fruits,vegetables, milk, meat, eggs and marine products isalso expected to increase very sharply. This additionalfood will have to be produced from the same orpossibly shrinking land resource base, because thereis no additional land available for cultivation. It isestimated that the average yields of rice, wheat, coarsegrains, and pulses need to increase by 56, 62, 36 and116 per cent, respectively, by 2020.

Although there is pressure to increase production inorder to meet higher demands, there has lately been asignificant slow-down of the growth rate in cultivatedarea, production and yield. The annual rate of growthin food production and yield peaked during the earlyyears of the Green Revolution, but since the 1980s, ithas declined.

The perceived gradual increase in environmentaldegradation, the early signs of which are becomingvisible in areas that benefitted largely from the GreenRevolution technologies, is further compounding theproblem. There is now great concern about decliningsoil fertility, change in water table depth, risingsalinity, resistance of harmful organisms to manypesticides, and degradation of irrigation water quality

other crops. India is now the largest producer of milk,fruits, cashew nuts, coconuts and tea in the world,the second largest producer of wheat, vegetables,sugar and fish, and the third largest producer of rice.As a consequence, the per capita availability of foodgrains has risen in the country from 350 gm in 1951,to about 500 gm per day at present, from less than125 gm of milk to 210 gm per day, and from 5 to 30eggs per annum despite the increase in populationfrom 350 million to more than one billion. This growthin agricultural production has also led to considerablesurplus food stocks with the government. Thedroughts of 1987, 1999-2000, and of 2002-2003 couldgenerally be managed and did not lead to severeproblems of food security because of these bufferstocks.

Marginal farmers dependent on rain are at risk due toclimate change.

Table 3.3. Food demand assuming a 5 per centGDP growth at constant prices.

Items Production Demand(Mt) (Mt)

1999-2000 2010 2020

Rice 85.4 103.6 122.1Wheat 71.0 85.8 102.8Coarse grains 29.9 34.9 40.9Total cereals 184.7 224.3 265.8Pulses 16.1 21.4 27.8Fruits 41.1 56.3 77.0Vegetables 84.5 112.7 149.7Milk 75.3 103.7 142.7Meat and eggs 3.7 5.4 7.8

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as, for example, in north-westernIndia. Nutrient removal by cropsover time has exceeded itsapplication and consequently,farmers now have to apply morefertilizers to realize the same yieldas achieved 20-30 years ago. Theintroduction of canal irrigation inHaryana has resulted in almost 0.5Mha being affected by soil salinity. The rapid increasein the number of tube-wells during the last threedecades has resulted in over-exploitation ofgroundwater in many blocks, leading to decliningwater tables. In some canal irrigated districts, on theother hand, the water table has risen, resulting inincreased problems of salinity. Several pathogens andinsect pests have also shown a tendency to increaseunder the intensive farming systems such as rice-wheat system.

In the 21st century, one of the great challenges for

Indian agriculture will be, therefore, to ensure thatfood production is coupled with both povertyreduction and environmental preservation. The road-map of sustainable agricultural development may alsohave to consider two additional important globaldrivers of change in agriculture in the coming decades-globalization and climate change. The on-goingglobalization process and economic reformsassociated with the World Trade Organization (WTO)is forcing India to make structural adjustments in theagricultural sector to increase its competitiveness andefficiency.

VULNERABILITY OF AGRICULTURE

Methods and modelsAll available methods have been utilized by theIndian scientific community for assessing thepossible impact of climatic variability and climaticchange on agriculture. Historical data analyses byvarious statistical tools and the analogue approachhave traditionally been used to assess the impactof climatic variability. Since environmentalcontrol, particularly of CO2, is very difficult andexpensive, there have been only a few studiesglobally in estimating its direct impact on cropplants. Controlled environment facilities, such asopen top chambers, Phytotron, and greenhouses, are

now increasingly being used to understand the impactof temperature, humidity and CO2 on crop growth andproductivity. Greater efforts are now also being madeto establish Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE)facilities, where CO2 is artificially increased in fieldconditions to quantify its possible impacts. One suchfacility has recently been set up at the IndianAgricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, to studythe effect of increased CO2 on crop photosynthesisand yield (see photograph above).

The interactive effects of CO2, rainfall andtemperature can be best studied through the use ofcrop growth simulation models. These modelssimulate the effect of daily changes on weather(including those caused by climatic change), forany location on growth and yield of a crop throughthe understanding of crop physiological and soilprocesses. Several crop models have also been usedin India for impact assessment of climaticvariability and climate change. Models of variouscrops included in the Decision Support System forAgro-technology Transfer (DSSAT) shell have beenthe most popular. For rice, the ORYZA series ofmodels have been effectively used. Indian models,such as the Wheat Grown Simulator (WTGROWS)for wheat, have been the basis of a large number ofstudies. Greater use of such crop models for impactassessment of climate change is, however, limited,due to the lack of a user-friendly framework thatrequires limited inputs and considers yield reductiondue to pests and diseases in the tropics. InfoCrop isone such indigenous decision support system, basedon crop models that have been developed recently atthe Indian Agricultural Research Institute to meet thestakeholders’ need for information on vulnerabilityof agriculture to climate change and for optimizing

FACE set-up at the Indian Agricultural Research Instituteto study the impact of increased CO

2 on crops.

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crop management. The InfoCrop modellingframework requires limited inputs and also includesdatabases of typical Indian soils, weather andgenotypes. The current version of the model dealswith chickpea, cotton, groundnut, maize, mustard,pearl millet, pigeonpea, potato, rice, sorghum,soybean, sugarcane, and wheat.

Impact assessmentThe net availability of food at any given time dependson a number of local, regional, national andinternational factors. Climate change associatedvariables such as CO2

and temperature can influence

food availability through their direct effect on growthprocesses and yield of crops. In addition, it may alsoimpact crop production through indirect effects causedby, for example, change in rainfall induced irrigationavailability, soil organic matter transformations, soilerosion, changes in pest profiles, and decline in arableareas due to the submergence of coastal lands. Equallyimportant determinants of food supply are socio-economic environment including governmentpolicies, capital availability, prices and returns,infrastructure, land reforms, and intra- and

Figure 3.23. a) Relation of monsoon season foodproduction with seasonal rainfall; and b) of regionalwheat yields with seasonal temperature.

(a)

(b)

international trade that might be affected by climaticchange.

Direct effects on crop growth and yieldSeveral studies are available that relate crop yields/production directly with one or more variables ofweather. Many of these results are confounded by thedifferences in technological growth over space andtime. Nevertheless, many of these studies have shownthat the annual food production in the monsoon season(kharif) of the country has a positive relationship withthe seasonal rainfall, even after considering thedeviations from the technology trend line (Figure3.23a). In the post-monsoon season, the rainfall isscanty, and crops such as wheat, that dominate foodproduction are largely irrigated. Hence, such cropsdo not show any relation with the seasonal rainfall.However, the regional wheat yields do show aconsiderable relation with temperature, as shown inFigure 3.23b.

Such empirical relations of crop yield with weatherare not universal, relate only to one element ofweather, are data specific, and do not provide anyinsight into mechanisms of the associations. Dynamicsimulation models are able to overcome theselimitations. In recent years, such crop models havebeen used in India to assess the impact of climatechange on crop production in different regions. Inthese studies, the sensitivity of crops to simultaneous,as well as independent changes of different magnitudein temperature and carbon dioxide, has been studied.The advantage of such an analysis is that the directeffects of all possible scenarios of climate changeincluding those of the IPCC, even up to the year 2070,can be considered.

Most of the simulation studies have shown a decreasein the duration and yield of crops as temperatureincreased in different parts of India (Aggarwal et al.,2001). These reductions were, however, generallyoffset by the increase in CO2; the magnitude of thisresponse varied with crop, region and climate changescenario. The results of such studies for rice and wheatare illustrated in Figure 3.24. Yields of both cropsdecreased as temperature increased; a 2

oC increase

resulted in 15-17 per cent decrease in the grain yieldof both crops, but beyond that the decrease was veryhigh in wheat. These decreases were compensated by

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isolines in Figure 3.25 can guide us on the magnitudeof the potential impact of change on crop productivity.Both rice and wheat showed a small positive effectwith an increase in yield between 1 per cent and 5 percent (area within the box). The effect remainedpositive (5-20 per cent) in the case of rice, even by2070, due to the effect of a large increase in CO2

compared to a relatively small reduction in kharif2

temperature. By comparison, the effect on wheat couldbe positive (up to 25 per cent) or negative (up to 30per cent), depending upon the magnitude of changein CO2 and temperature. Since, there is greaterprobability of increase in temperature in rabi3, it islikely that the productivity of wheat and other rabicrops would be significantly reduced. Therefore, ifCO2 stabilizes early and the temperature continues torise for a longer time, Indian agriculture could suffersignificantly in the long term.

This impact assessment analyses was extended forvarious cereal crops in different regions for the climatechange scenarios of 2010. The results showed thatirrigated rice yields register a small gain irrespectiveof the scenario at all places in India (Table 3.4). Wheatyields in central India are likely to suffer by up to 2per cent in the pessimistic scenario but there is also a

2 Kharif crops are sown in May-June and harvested in September-October. The important Kharif crops are cotton, rice, sugarcane,maize, jowar and bajra.3 Rabi crops are sown in October-November and harvested inFebruary-March. The important Rabi crops are wheat, grams,barley, rapeseed and mustard.

Figure 3.24. Simulated response of irrigated riceand wheat in northern India to changes intemperature and CO2. The lines refer to the equalchange in grain yield (percentage change, labelledvalues) at different values of CO2 and increase intemperature. The large, shaded box refers to thetotal uncertainty in impact assessment due touncertainties in the IPCC scenario of 2070. Thesmall, hatched box refers to the total uncertaintydue to uncertainties in the scenario of 2010.

Figure 3.25. Simulated response of irrigated wheatin north India to improved management (N fertilizer)in global warming scenarios of future years.

an increase in CO2, due to the latter’s fertilizing effecton crop growth. Atmospheric CO2 concentration hasto rise to 450 ppm to nullify the negative effect of a1

oC increase in temperature, and to 550 ppm to nullify

the 2oC increase in temperature.

The sensitivity analysis of yield to temperature andCO2 as presented in Figure 3.24 can assist in assessingthe direct impact of different climate change scenarios,and their uncertainties on different crops. Based onvarious IPCC scenarios, two specific scenarios ofclimate change-optimistic and pessimistic-fordifferent years, from 2010, were used for furtherevaluation. The highest increase in temperature andlowest increase in CO2 are detrimental to crop growthand, hence, this is labelled as a pessimistic scenario.On the other hand, large increase in CO2 and a smallchange in temperature promote growth and, hence, islabelled as an optimistic scenario. The uncertainty inglobal warming and its impact during the period 2010to 2070 are assumed to be in between these twoscenarios. Superimposing these scenarios on the

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possibility that these might improve by 6 per cent ifthe global change is optimistic. Sorghum, being a C4plant, does not show any significant response toincrease in CO2

and hence the different scenarios do

not affect its yield. However, if the temperatureincreases are higher, western India may experiencesome negative effect on productivity due to reducedcrop durations. This effect can be mitigated easily byusing varieties that are of relatively longer duration.

Concerns have been expressed lately that the rice-wheat system in north-western India is alreadyshowing signs of stagnation/decline in its productivity.A crop simulation study with weather as the onlyvarying factor with the year also showed a similar trend,indicating that crop-weather interactions also have arole to play in explaining the trends. A closerexamination of the weather data, the main drivers inthe simulations, indeed indicated that a significant partof the yield decline/stagnation trend in rice and wheatcould be ascribed to rising temperatures during thecrop season. These changes are not statistically

significant but do indicate a warming trend and theirpossible effects on crop production.

A large number of resource-poor farmers in India arenot able to apply desired levels of fertilizers, irrigationand pest control. Simulation studies done at differentlevels at N management indicate that the crop responsecould vary depending upon the N management andthe climate change scenario (Figure 3.25). At zero kg N/ha, the yields in different scenarios of climate changewere similar. This was the case even at 75 kg N/ha,except in the scenario of 2070, when the temperatureshad increased to 4.5

oC. The impact of warming

scenarios becomes apparent at higher levels of fertilizerapplication from 2030 onwards. This indicates that inthe agro-ecosystems where inputs used remains low,as in today’s rainfed systems, the direct impact ofclimatic change would be small. It is also expected thatthe response of crops to the added fertilizer would belower, as climate becomes warmer. In future, therefore,much higher levels of fertilizer may need to be appliedto meet the increasing demand for food.

Impact assessment of climate change has also beenstudied for regional wheat production using cropmodels, Geographic Information Systems (GIS),remote sensing and regional databases. The actualdates of planting, varieties, and the fertilizer useobtained from the government survey reports,standard soil data, the irrigated regions demarcation,and weather data are input in Info-Crop to estimatecrop yields. Together with remotely sensed areaestimates, these are then translated into productionfigures in different states. This methodology has beenvalidated with wheat production data at the state aswell as national level, for three consecutive years.The results indicated, similar to the individual fieldlevel results, that we should not expect any significanteffect on wheat production due to climate change upto 2010 (Figure 3.26). It was only when we considerscenarios of climate change beyond 2020, without anynew technological interventions and adaptationmechanisms, a reduction in wheat production isnoticed.

The increased climatic variability may affect ourrainfed crops, such as pulses, significantly. A recentstudy analyzed the response of soybean at a few placesin Madhya Pradesh, using a crop simulation model.

Table 3.4: Simulated impact of climate changescenario of 2010 on yields (percentage change) ofmajor cereals.

Note: Pessimistic scenario reflects low increase in CO2 and a

high increase in temperature, whereas the optimistic scenarioconsists of a significant increase in CO2 and a negligible increasein temperature.

Crop and Impact of climate change onregion yield, %

Pessimistic Optimisticscenario scenario

RiceEast 2.3 5.4South 1. 3 3.8North 3.0 7.0WheatNorth 1.5 6.5East -0.3 7.7Central -2.0 6.5SorghumNorth 0.0 0.5South 1.0 3.4East 1.8 2.5West -0.8 0.5

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It showed that an increase of 3oC in temperature

nullified the positive effect of doubled CO2 on yield.The study has also shown that the magnitude of thebeneficial effect of elevated CO2 was significantlyreduced under water stress conditions. Similarly, inrainfed groundnut, the simulation results haveindicated that yields would increase under doubledCO2, and temperature increase up to 3°C if the rainfalldid not decline. Reduction of rainfall by 10 per centreduced the yield by 12.4 per cent. The adaptationoptions should aim at increased water productivityunder rainfed conditions.

There is a great probability of significant effects ofincreased climatic variability on short season cropssuch as vegetables, if changes occur during criticalperiods in growth. Such crops will have limited timeto adapt to adverse environments. The production offruits may be significantly affected if the changes inclimate happen to coincide with the critical periods.

In the hills, the low temperature and shorter growingperiod limit the productivity of crops. Theserestrictions become conspicuous with increase inaltitude. Global warming is likely to prolong thegrowing season and this could result in potentiallyhigher crop yields, provided water remains available.However, the positive perspectives for total biomassproduction may not always ensure higher economicyields, since many temperate crops also need aminimum chilling period to stimulate better flowering.Global warming will push the snow line higher anddense vegetation will shift upwards. This shift will

be selective and species specific due to the differentialresponse of plants to changing environmentalconditions. Species which are adapted to widerenvironmental gradients would spread faster anddominate the ecosystem, while those with narrowenvironmental adaptation would becomemarginalized. This may affect biodiversity. Correctivesteps must be taken to avoid the elimination of plantspecies due to weather change.

The quality of food is significantly affected bytemperature in most crops. An increase in temperaturemay have significant effect on the quality of cotton,fruits, vegetables, tea, coffee, aromatic and medicinalplants. The nutritional quality of cereals and pulsesmay also be moderately affected which, in turn, willhave consequences for our nutritional security.Research has indeed shown that the decline in grainprotein content in cereals could partly be related toincreasing CO2 concentrations.

The global environmental changes may aggravate thecurrent problems of sustainability and profitabilityof agriculture in many regions of the country. Thesechanges may alter the interactions betweenbiophysical and socio-economic factors and the waysin which these are mediated by the institutions. Somepreliminary studies have linked the biophysicalresponse of crops, costs-benefits and the expectedresponse of farmers to understand the socio-economicimpact of global change. These indicate that the lossin farm-level net revenue may range between 9 percent and 25 per cent for a temperature rise of 2-3.5°C.

Indirect effects on cropsAgricultural production may be much more affectedby several other factors than the direct effectsconsidered in the above analysis. Changes in pestscenario, soil moisture storage, irrigation wateravailability, mineralization of nutrients, and socio-economic changes can have larger effects onagricultural production. Some of these are consideredbelow.

Crop-pest interactionsIt is estimated that insect pests, pathogens and weedsresult in almost 30 per cent loss in crop production atpresent. Avoidance of such loss constitutes one of themain sources of sustainability in crop production. The

Figure 3.26. Possible impact of climate change onwheat production in India.

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change in climate may bring about changes inpopulation dynamics, growth and distribution ofinsects and pests. Besides having a significant directinfluence on the pest population build up, the weatheralso affects the pest population indirectly through itseffects on other factors like food availability, shelterand natural enemies.

Aphid is a major pest of wheat and its occurrence ishighly influenced by weather conditions. Cloudyweather with sufficient relative humidity favours theoccurrence of aphids in the field. Under mostfavourable conditions, a population density of a 1000million per hectare wheat field has been reported. Theweather changes may lead to aphid occurrence at avery juvenile and more susceptible stage of crop,leading to tremendous loss. In nature, aphids arechecked by Coccinella septumpunctata and in casethe weather limits their growth, the production lossescould get further magnified. With small changes, thevirulence of different pests changes. For example, at16

oC, the length of the latent period is small for yellow

rust. Once the temperature goes beyond 18oC, this

latent period increases but that of yellow and stemrusts decreases. The appearance of black rust innorthern India in the 1960s and 1970s was related tothe temperature-dependent movement of spores fromsouthern to northern India (Figure 3.27). Thus, any

small change in temperature can result in changedvirulence as well as the appearance of new pests in aregion.

Several pathogens such as the Phytophtora andPuccinia group produce an abundance of propagulesfrom the infected lesion or spot. They also invariablypossess very short incubation cycles or life-cycleperiods. Such pathogens and pests are highly sensitiveto even minor changes in temperature, humidity andsunlight. Any change in the weather conditions thatfurther reduce the incubation period will result inthe completion of more cycles, greater terminalseverity and in more severe yield losses. Changeseven to the extent of 1

oC in maximum or minimum

temperature will make a great deal of differencebetween moderate and severe terminal diseasedevelopment. The swarms of locust produced inthe Middle East usually fly eastward into Pakistanand India during the summer and they lay eggs duringthe monsoon. Changes in rainfall, temperature andwind speed pattern may influence the migratorybehaviour of the locust.

Most crops have C3 photosynthesis (responsive toCO2), while many weeds are C4 plants (non-responsive to CO2). The climate changecharacterized by higher CO2 concentration will

Figure 3.27. Appearance dates of black rust in 1972-73 and its relation to changes in temperatures in differentregions of India. Rusts move from south to north of India, as the temperatures become suitable for them innorthern regions

Appearance datesof black rust

Months with 14oC

isolines

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favour crop growth over weeds, althoughtemperature increase may further accelerate crop-weed competition depending upon the thresholdtemperatures in different locations.

Water availabilityThe creation of irrigation potential has been a majorkey to India’s agricultural development, productionstability and food security. Apart from the monsoonrains, India has depended on the Himalayan riversfor centuries for its water resource development.Temperature increase associated with global warmingwill increase the rate of snow melting andconsequently snow cover will decrease. In the shortterm, this may increase water flow in many riversthat, in turn, may lead to increased frequency offloods, especially in those systems where watercarrying capacity has decreased due tosedimentation. In the long run, however, a recedingsnow line would result in reduced water flow inrivers. These issues have been discussed in detailelsewhere in this Communication.

Under the climate change scenario, the onset of thesummer monsoon over India is projected to be delayedand often uncertain. This will have a direct effect notonly on the rainfed crops, but water storage will alsobe affected, placing stress on the irrigation water.Since the availability of water for agriculture wouldhave to face tremendous competition for other usesof water, agriculture would come under greater strainin future.

Soil processesPractically all soil processes important for agricultureare directly affected in one way or the other by climate.Changes in precipitation patterns and amount, andtemperature can influence soil water content, run-offand erosion, workability, temperature, salinization,biodiversity, and organic carbon and nitrogen content.Changes in soil water induced by global climatechange may affect all soil processes and ultimately,crop growth. An increase in temperature would alsolead to increased evapotranspiration, which may resultin the lowering of the groundwater table at someplaces. Increased temperature coupled with reducedrainfall may lead to upward water movement, leadingto accumulation of salts in upper soil layers. Similarly,a rise in sea level associated with increased

temperature may lead to salt-water ingression in thecoastal lands, making them unsuitable forconventional agriculture.

Organic matter content, which is already quite low inmost parts of India, will continue to remain low butclimatic change through temperature and precipitationmediated processes may affect its quality. An increaseof 1

oC in the soil temperature may lead to higher

mineralization but N availability for crop growth maystill decrease due to increased gaseous losses.Biological nitrogen fixation under elevated CO2 mayshow an increase, provided other nutrients are notstrongly limiting.

The change in rainfall amount and frequency, andwind may alter the severity, frequent and extent ofsoil erosion. These changes may further compoundthe direct effects of temperature and CO2, on cropgrowth and yield.

Relative importance of the impact ofclimate change versus currentclimatic variabilityWhile the impact assessment of future climatic changeis quite important, most crops in India, even inirrigated environments, are quite sensitive to climaticvariability. The latter has considerable effect on thecountry’s food security, despite impressivedevelopment of irrigation potential. In field andregional situations, it is not always easy to quantifythe impact of climatic variation on food productiondue to the confounding effects of changing technologyused. India had a record harvest of 75.5 Mt of wheatin 1999-2000, an increase of 5 Mt over 1998-1999,with almost the same technology level. This changewas largely due to very cool weather during Januaryto March 2000, which was favourable to grainformation and filling. Similarly, the relatively verywarm temperatures during March 2004 are expectedto result in a production loss of almost 4.0 Mt of wheat.Such variations in food production would be muchlarger in rice, pulses and oilseeds, where a largeportion of the crop area is rainfed. The gluts andshortages of rice, onions and potatoes in recent times,besides being caused by policy and management, arealso a manifestation of the effects of climaticvariability. If we can evolve strategies for managingclimatic variability in agricultural production,

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adaptation required for climate change wouldpresumably be automatically taken care of.

Adaptation strategiesAny disturbance in agriculture can considerably affectthe food systems and thus increase the vulnerabilityof the large fraction of the resource-poor population.We need to understand the possible coping strategiesby different sections and different categories ofproducers to global climatic change. Such adaptationstrategies would need to simultaneously consider thebackground of changing demand due to globalization,population increase and income growth, as well asthe socio-economic and environmental consequencesof possible adaptation options. Developing adaptationstrategies exclusively for minimizing the negativeimpact of climatic changes may be risky in view oflarge uncertainties associated with its spatial andtemporal magnitude. We need to identify ‘no-regrets’adaptation strategies that may be needed forsustainable development of agriculture. Theseadaptations can be at the level of the individual farmer,society, farm, village, watershed, or at the nationallevel. Some of the possible adaptation options arediscussed below.

Altered agronomy of cropsSmall changes in climatic parameters can often bemanaged reasonably well by altering the dates ofplanting, spacing and input management. Alternate

crops or cultivars more adapted to the changedenvironment can further ease the pressure. Forexample, in the case of wheat, early planting or theuse of longer duration cultivars may offset most ofthe losses associated with increased temperatures.Available germplasm of various crops needs to beevaluated for heat and drought tolerance.

Watershed managementWatershed management programmes yield multiplebenefits, such as sustainable production, resourceconservation, ground water recharge, droughtmoderation, employment generation and socialequity, as is evident from several studies alreadyconducted in different agro-ecological regions ofthe country. For example, a consistent increase inthe production of food grains, fruits as well as inmilk, and decline in run-off, soil loss and dependencyon forest for fodder and fuel-wood was noticed evenafter the withdrawal of the active intervention phasein the Fakot watershed project initiated in 1974(Table 3.5).

Development of resource conservingtechnologiesRecent research has shown that surface seeding orzero-tillage establishment of upland crops after ricegive similar yields as when planted under normalconventional tillage over a diverse set of soilconditions. This reduces the costs of production,

Table 3.5 : Production and protection impact of watershed management programme during pre-project, activeInterventions and after withdrawal of interventions (Fakot, Uttaranchal hills, area – 327 ha).

*Community diversified into Floriculture in 1994.

Product Pre-Project Average ofPeriod Intervention Phase Post Intervention

(1974-1975) (1975-1986) Phase (1987-1995)

Food Crops (q) 882 4015 5843Fruit (q) Neg. 62 1962Milk (‘000 lit.) 56.6 184.8 237.6Floriculture (‘000 Rs.) Nil Nil 120.0*Cash crops (‘000 Rs.) 6.5 24.8 202.5Animal rearing method Heavily grazing Partially grazing Stall feedingDependency on forest fodder (%) 60 46 18Run-off (%) 42 18.3 13.7Soil loss (t/ha/annum) 11 4.5 2.0

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allows earlier planting and, thus, results in higheryields, less weed growth, reduced use of naturalresources such as fuel and steel for tractor parts, andimprovements in efficiency of water and fertilizers.In addition, such resource conserving technologiesrestrict the release of soil carbon, thus mitigating theincrease of CO2 in the atmosphere. It is estimated thatzero tillage saves at least 30 litres of diesel ascompared to the conventional tillage. This leads to80 kg/ha/year reduction in CO2 production. If thesesavings could be translated even partially to largearable areas, substantial carbon dioxide emissions tothe atmosphere could be reduced.

Augmenting production and itssustainabilityThe climatic factors allow very high yield potentialof many crops in India. For example, the potentialyields of rice and wheat are calculated to be morethan six tons/ha whereas their average yields rangebetween two and three tons/ha. Such yield gaps arevery large in eastern India and, hence, this region canbe a future source of food security for the wholecountry, under the scenario of adverse climaticimpacts. Institutional support in the form of improvedextension services, markets and infrastructure needto be provided in such regions to increase stabilityand bridge yield gaps.

Increasing income from agriculturalenterprisesRising unit costs of production and stagnating yieldlevels are adversely affecting the incomes of farmers.Global environmental changes, including climaticvariability, may further increase the costs ofproduction of crops due to its associated increases innutrient losses, evapotranspiration and crop-weedinteractions. Suitable actions such as acceleratedevolution of location-specific fertilizer practices,improvement in extension services, fertilizer supplyand distribution, and development of physical andinstitutional infrastructure, can improve efficiency offertilizer use.

Improved land use and natural resourcemanagement policies and institutionsAdaptation to environmental change could be in theform of social cover such as crop insurance, subsidies,and pricing policies related to water and energy.

Necessary provisions need to be included in thedevelopment plans to address these issues of attainingthe twin objectives of containing environmentalchanges and improving resource use productivity.Rational pricing of surface and groundwater, forexample, can arrest its excessive and injudicious use.The availability of assured prices and infrastructurecould create a situation of better utilization ofgroundwater in eastern India. Policies such asfinancial compensation/incentive for green manuringshould be evolved that would encourage farmers toenrich organic matter in the soil and, thus, improvesoil health.

Improved risk management throughearly warning system and cropinsuranceThe increasing probability of floods and droughts andother uncertainties in climate may seriously increasethe vulnerability of eastern India and of resource-poorfarmers to global climate change. Policies thatencourage crop insurance can provide protection tofarmers in the event their farm production is reduceddue to natural calamities. In view of these climaticchanges and the uncertainties in future agriculturaltechnologies and trade scenarios, it will be very usefulto have an early warning system of environmentalchanges and their spatial and temporal magnitude.Such a system could help in determining the potentialfood insecure areas and communities, given the typeof risk. Modern tools of information technology couldgreatly facilitate this.

Recycling waste water and solidwastes in agricultureSince fresh water supplies are limited and havecompeting uses, agriculture has to start a vigorousevaluation of using industrial and sewage waste water.Such effluents, once properly treated, can also be asource of nutrients for crops. Since water servesmultiple uses and users, effective inter-departmentalcoordination within the government is needed todevelop the location-specific framework ofsustainable water management and optimum recyclingof water.

Reducing dependence on agricultureThe share of agriculture has declined to 24 per centof the GDP, but 64 per cent of the population

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regrets’ adaptation strategies that would ensurelivelihood security for millions of resource-poor smalland marginal farmers need cataloguing andimplementation. Such an assessment of agricultureand, therefore, policy and technological responses tomanage climate change impacts needs an integratedstudy of biophysical, environmental and socio-economic sectors of agro-ecosystems. This requiresunique partnerships, cutting across the barriers ofdisciplinary/ministerial specialization.

Effective handling of environmental change issues inagriculture also needs a close interaction betweenscientists, donors, policy makers, administrators, trade

� Utilization of wastelands and un-utilized/ under-utilized lands.

� Reclamation/ development of problem soils/lands.

� Rainwater harvesting and conservation for thedevelopment of rainfed areas.

� Development of irrigation, especially minorirrigation.

� Conservation and utilization of biologicalresources.

� Diversification to high value crops/activities.� Increasing cropping intensity.� Timely and adequate availability of inputs.� Strengthening of marketing, processing/value

addition infrastructure.� Revamping and modernizing the extension

systems and encouraging the private sector toinitiate extension services.

� Bridging the gap between potential andfarmer’s yields.

� Cost-effectiveness while increasingproductivity.

� Promotion of farming systems approach.� Promotion of organic farming and utilization

of organic waste.� Development of eastern and north-eastern

regions, hill and coastal areas.� Reforms to introduce proactive policies for the

farm sector

Box 3.7: Thrust Areas for theTenth Plan in the AgricultureSector

continues to remain dependent on agriculture forits livelihood. Such trends have resulted infragmentation and decline in the size of landholdings, leading to inefficiency in agriculture andrise in unemployment, underemployment, lowvolume of marketable surplus and therefore,increased vulnerabili ty to global change.Institutional arrangements, such as cooperativesand contract farming, that can bring small andmarginal farmers together for increasing productionand marketing efficiencies are needed.

Current programmes, policies, andprojectsSome of the initiatives taken by the Government ofIndia including the National Watershed DevelopmentProject for Rainfed Areas, improved access to creditfor farmers (through Kisan Credit Card), creation ofa Watershed Development Fund, and implementationof the National Agriculture Insurance Scheme can beconsidered of importance in adapting to globalclimatic change. Several schemes, currently beingimplemented in the Tenth plan (see Box 3.7), are alsolikely to reduce the vulnerability of agriculturalproduction and conserve soil and water resources (seebox for these schemes).

CONCLUSIONS

Changing demands, markets and agriculturaltechnologies are expected to significantly transformIndian agriculture in the near future. The pace of thesechanges is expected to increase rapidly in the comingyears and the whole agricultural scenario may becomequite different in the next 10 to 20 years. To addressmultifarious challenges of sustainable developmentin the context of future climatic change, agriculturalplanning has to ensure sufficient food production,employment generation and rural income, whileconserving natural resources. Global climatic changesand increasing climatic variability could have someadverse implications in achieving these goals.Therefore, its impact, adaptation measures andvulnerability need to be quantified for differentregions. This assessment should include not onlycrops, but also the livestock and fish sector, importantconstituents of food supply. We need to develop betterscenarios of regional climate change and validatedagro-ecosystems models for impact assessment. ‘No-

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and industry, farmers’ organizations and otherstakeholders. Different types of capacity-buildingprogrammes need to be developed at various levelsto ensure efficient management of natural resourcesfor sustainable agricultural development.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ONTHE FOREST SECTOR IN INDIA

Importance of Forest Ecosystems inIndiaIndia is one of the 12 mega-diversity nations with arich variety of flora and fauna. It is home to seven percent of the world’s biodiversity and supports 16 majorvegetation types, varying from alpine pastures in theHimalayas to temperate, sub-tropical and tropicalforests, and mangroves in the coastal areas. The areaunder forests is estimated to be about 67 Mhaaccording to the State of Forest Reports. In India,about 200 million people depend on forests directlyor indirectly for their livelihoods. Forests play animportant role in environmental and economicsustainability. They provide numerous goods andservices, and maintain life-support systems. In India,deforestation or forest conversion has declinedsignificantly since 1980. However, forest degradationdue to fuel wood and timber extraction, livestockgrazing and fire, continues. The projected climatechange is likely to further exacerbate the socio-economic stresses, leading to adverse impacts onforest ecosystems and forest product flows. Thus, itis very important to assess the impact of projectedclimate change on forest ecosystems, and develop andimplement appropriate adaptation measures.

Some of the major life-support systems of economicand environmental importance of forests are as follows:

Biodiversity: The forests support a wide variety offlora and fauna. More than 5,150 species of plants,16,214 species of insects, 44 mammals, 42 birds, 164reptiles, 121 amphibians and 435 fish, are endemicto the country. However, in recent times, heavy bioticpressures have begun to exert tremendous stress onnatural resources and, hence, many of the plant andanimal species are under various degrees of threat. Inorder to conserve these, a Protected Area Network,comprising 80 National Parks and 441 WildlifeSanctuaries have been created on about 14.8 Mha of

forests, covering about 4.5 per cent of the geographicarea of the country.

Biomass supply: Forests meet nearly 40 per cent ofthe country’s energy needs and 30 per cent of thefodder needs. It is estimated that approximately 270Mt of fuelwood, 280 Mt of fodder, and over 12 millionm

3 of timber and several Non-Timber Forest Products

(NTFPs) are removed from forests, annually.

Livelihoods to forest dependent communities: InIndia there are about 15,000 plant species out of whichnearly 3,000 species (20 per cent) yield NTFPs. NTFPactivities hold prospects for integrated developmentthat yield higher rural incomes and conservebiodiversity, while not competing with agriculture.Millions of forest dwellers and agriculturalcommunities depend on forests for a range of non-timber forest products, such as fruits, nuts, edibleflowers, medicinal herbs, rattan and bamboo, honeyand gum. Further, all forest sector activities are labourintensive and lead to rural employment generation.

Gross Domestic Product: The value of goods andservices provided by the forest sector is estimated tobe Rs. 25,984 crores. Of the GDP of Rs. 23,000 crores,approximately 54 per cent is from fuelwood, 9 percent is from industrial wood, 16 per cent from NTFPs,and eco-tourism and carbon sequestration account for14 per cent and 7 per cent, respectively.

Area under Forests and ForestTypes in India

Area under forestsThe State of Forest Report, 2001, estimates the forestcover in India as 67 Mha, constituting 20.5 per centof the geographical area. This is composed of 41.7Mha (12.7 per cent) of dense forest, 25.9 Mha (7.9 percent) of open forest and 0.4 Mha (0.14 per cent) ofmangroves. The forests in India are termed ‘dense’ ifthe canopy density is 40 per cent and above, or ‘open’if lands have tree cover of canopy density between 10per cent and 40 per cent. Mangroves are salt-tolerantforest ecosystems, found in inter-tidal regions inestuaries and coasts. There is also 4.73 Mha of scrubin addition to the reported forest cover of 67 Mha.

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Forest types in IndiaAccording to the Forest Survey of India, the recordedforest area of India has been classified as ReserveForests, Protected Forests and Unclassed Forests. Thearea under forests, according to the latest assessmentfor 2001 is 67 Mha, with reserve forest accountingfor about 42 Mha.

Champion and Seth (1935) have broadly classifiedthe forests of India into the following broad categories:(a) tropical forests; (b) montane sub-tropical forests;(c) montane temperate forests; (d) sub-alpine forests;and (e) alpine forests. These have been furtherclassified into 16 sub-types (Figure 3.28). The dominantforest types are the tropical dry deciduous forest (38%)and tropical moist deciduous forest (32%). The otherimportant forest types are tropical evergreen, tropicalthorn, sub-tropical pine and alpine forest.

The Forest Survey of India has classified forests into22 strata, based on the dominant tree species. Thedominant forest stratum is the ‘miscellaneous’category, accounting for 66 per cent of total forestarea, where no dominant species could be identified.Sal, Teak, mixed conifers, upland hardwoods andBamboo are the other dominant forest strata. Theapproximate extent of forests on a functional basisis: Protection Forests—10 Mha; Production Forests—15 Mha; Social Forests—25 Mha and Protected AreaNetwork—14.8 Mha. Social Forests here do notinclude the small blocks of woodlands (less than 25ha), trees in strips and farms.

Methods and Models for ClimateImpact AssessmentThe models developed to explore the impact of climatechange on vegetation fall into two broad categories.Empirical-Statistical models attempt to elucidate therelationship between the existing climate and theexisting vegetation. Once such a correspondence isobtained with a reasonable degree of reliability, it ispossible to use it to project the distribution of thesevegetation types for any future climate scenario. Acomparison of such a projected distribution with theexisting one can then serve as a basis for assessingthe impact of climate change as expected under thatscenario. Recently, more sophisticated methods ofpattern recognition (for example, the use of neuralnetworks and genetic algorithms), originating in thefield of artificial intelligence are also being appliedto the problem of impact of climate change.Simulation models explicitly evaluate the temporalchanges in the various components of the system(root/shoot biomass, soil moisture levels,concentrations of different pools of nutrients, etc.)from a single step to the next. Equilibrium modelspredict the final composition, biomass, etc., expectedat a location, based on the input parameters(precipitation, temperature, radiation, soil carbon,etc.). Dynamic models, on the other hand, enableone to track the changes expected during the courseof the time interval used in the simulation. Thesemodels vary greatly in their spatial scales andfundamental processes included in the model, degreeof complexity, etc.

Model selected for climateimpact assessment;BIOME-3An impact assessment was carriedout using the BIOME-3 model bypredicting the equilibriumcomposition of different vegetationtypes under the CTL and GHGscenarios.

BIOME-3 model determinesequilibrium state vegetationcombinations for each location. Itcombines the screening of biomesthrough the application of climaticconstraints with the computation of

Figure 3.28: Different forest types in India (according to Champion andSeth, 1935).

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net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index(LAI), both based on fully coupled photosynthesisand water balance calculations. The underlyinghypothesis of the model is that the combination ofvegetation types, which is calculated to achieve themaximum NPP, represents the equilibrium vegetation.Using the data on climatic parameters and soilcharacteristics, the model predicts the potential biometype likely to dominate at a given geographicallocation.

The climate at the location is specified in terms ofmean monthly values of rainfall, temperature andcloud cover (expressed as a percentage). The soilcharacteristics include the water holding capacity(WHC), depth of the top soil and sub-soil, and thepercolation rates. Based on these, the programmecalculates the WHC of two layers of soil, 0-500 mmand 500-1500 mm, to be used for the water balancesimulation.

The data requirements of BIOME-3 fall into threecategories: location, climate and soil. The locationinformation is included in all the climate data files aswell, and consists of latitude, longitude and altitude,though the programme does not seem to make use ofthe input values of longitude and altitude. Only threeclimatic parameters are required, and mean monthlyvalues of precipitation (mm), temperature (degrees

Figure 3.29. Current vegetation map and map for control run of HadRM2.

C) and cloud cover (percentage) are supplied in threeseparate files. The soil parameters needed by theprogramme are: (a) the Available Water Capacity(AWC) of the top soil; (b) AWC of the sub soil; (c)depth of the topsoil; (d) depth of the subsoil; and (e)percolation rate (though a default value of 30 is usedby the programme if data on percolation rate is notavailable).

The model uses nine Plant Functional Types (PFTs),such as Tropical Evergreen, Tropical Rain green,Temperate Broadleaved Evergreen, TemperateSummer green, Temperate Evergreen Conifer,Boreal Evergreen, Boreal Deciduous, TemperateGrass and Tropical/warm-temperate Grass. Basedon the climatic parameters, the model computesthe viabili ty and wherever applicable, theproductivity-related parameters of the PFTs, such asthe LAI and the NPP.

Not all of these biomes are seen in India. Figure 3.29depicts the distribution of vegetation in India, basedon the Champion-Seth classification, which has areasonably close correspondence with the biometypes. The right panel of Figure 3.29 shows thedistribution of biome types expected to prevail in Indiaunder the climate corresponding to the ‘control’ runof the HadRM2 model.

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Choice of climate model andsources of dataSome of the data used in this investigation wasobtained from the IPCC Data Distribution Centre. Forobtaining monthly mean data, the main entry point ofIPCC DDC is http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/dkrz/dkrz_index.html. The two major alternative scenariossuggested by IPCC for which such data is availableare the IPCC IS92a emission scenario and the IPCCSRES scenario. Data and information wasdownloaded from http://ipcc-ddc.cru.uea.ac.uk/cru_data/datadownload/download_index.html andused for analysis.

A number of datasets from modelling centres fromdifferent parts of the world are available from thissite [UK Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction andResearch (HadCM2), the German Climate ResearchCentre (ECHAM4), the Canadian Centre for ClimateModeling and Analysis (CGCM1), the USGeophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL-R15), the Australian Commonwealth Scientific andIndustrial Research Organization (CSIRO-Mk2), theNational Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR-DOE) and the Japanese Centre for Climate SystemResearch (CCSR)].

The models differ from each other considerably ingrid size or resolution. Many of them consider rathercoarse grids, with one or both of longitude/latitudegreater than four degrees. The two models with thebest resolution are HadCM2 (3.75 × 2.5 degrees) andECHAM4 (2.8125 × 2.8125 degrees), and seemed themost appropriate for the present investigation. Thekinds of variables generated and made available bythese models also differ from each other. Of these twomodels, the climate variable ‘percentage of cloudcover’ (required to obtain the value of ‘percentage ofsunshine hours’ needed to run the BIOME-3programme), was available only for the HadCM2.Second, the data at even finer (regional) scale(0.4425 × 0.4425 degrees) was available for HadRM2,derived from HadCM2. Projections from HadCM2model have been used for analysis.

The RCM is obtained by downscaling from theboundary conditions of the GCM, and uses a muchfiner spatial (0.4425 degrees in longitude as well aslatitude, corresponding approximately to a 50 km ×

50 km grid), as well as temporal (daily) resolution.However, data for this model available only for asmaller duration, corresponding to the years 2041 to2060, both for control as well as GHG Scenario 1.No data is available as yet for Scenario 2. The RCMdataset also contains fewer parameters (for example,only maximum and minimum temperature and notthe average temperature separately).

In addition to the above, actual climate data (monthlyvalues from 1901 to about 1995) for the Indian region,compiled by the Climate Research Unit of theUniversity of East Anglia, also at a fine (0.5 degrees× 0.5 degrees, comparable to the RCM) spatialresolution, was also made use of in the presentanalysis.

Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystemsin India to Projected ClimateChangeThe approach used in the present investigation forexploring the vulnerability of forest ecosystems toprojected climate change is based on the applicationof BIOME-3 model to about 1500 grids (50 km × 50 km)across the Indian region. The climate-relatedparameters for these grids are from the HadRM2. Thesoil parameters for a grid were obtained from thenearest of the 78 locations for which soil data wasavailable. (in fact, the sensitivity of the results to thesoil parameters was also investigated by assigningseveral different soil parameters to the grids; thepredictions were found to be quite robust). The outputsof the BIOME-3 (biome type, net primaryproductivity, etc. using climate from the control runof RCM indicated the current situation, while that fromthe GHG run described the vegetation that was likelyto prevail around 2050 under the GHG Scenario. Thedifferences in the outputs of BIOME-3 at each of thegrids were used for assessing the direction and extentof the expected change in the vegetation.

The analysis is primarily based on the HadCM2model, and on the scenario corresponding to one percent compounded annual increase in CO2

concentration. This led to about 3.4 °C increase in

the average annual temperature over the Indian regionby 2050. However, when effects of aerosols/sulfateswere included in the same scenario, HadCM2 showeda smaller increase, of 1.89 °C, for the same region for

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the same year. The other, milder scenario, with 0.5%annual increase of CO2 showed an increase of 2.3 °Cwithout sulfates and 2.0 °C with sulfates. Thus, allthe three remaining scenarios are likely to lead to lesssevere changes in vegetation and in the shifts of forestboundaries than obtained in the present analysis. It iseven more difficult to draw any inference based onthe changes in the precipitation, since there does notseem to be any direct correlation between the changesin temperature and those in the precipitation for theIndian region—all the four cases show a small overalldecrease in the rainfall.

It is possible that this is an artifact of the coarse gridof GCM, since the HadRM2 with a finer grid doesshow a slight increase in the rainfall expected overthe Indian region by 2050. Further, HadCM2 is oneof the several GCMs. There is a variation in theprojections of climate parameters (such as temperatureand precipitation) among GCMs, though all GCMsproject warming and changes in precipitation patternsacross all regions.

The expected distribution of biome types in India isshown in Figure 3.30 for the climate projected toprevail over India during 2041-2061 under the GHGscenario. The large-scale changes in the vegetationtypes are immediately evident from the figure (rightpanel of Figure 3.30 when compared to the vegetation

types prevailing today (left panel of Figure 3.30). Thesechanges are along the lines expected, on the basis ofincrease in CO2, as well as the changes in rainfall andtemperature described in the previous sections.

Shifts in major forest types consideringall grids and potential vegetationWhile Figure 3.31 brings out the spatial distributionof projected changes in forest biome types, thequantitative estimates can be obtained on the basis ofthe number of RCM grids (out of a total of about 1500)that change from one biome type into another. A verylarge proportion (about 70 per cent) of the grids (andconcomitantly, existing forests) are likely toexperience a change. It is worth emphasizing herethat large changes are possible for some of thebiomes, even though the total aggregate area underthese does not show any change during this period.This is because the locations of the biome showconspicuous shifts due to the marked changes in theclimatic conditions.

The biome type most seriously impacted is the DrySavanna. About 62 per cent of it, mainly lying in thenorthern/central parts of India, is likely to beconverted into Xeric Woodland (Dry Thorn Forest),while another 24 per cent, mainly in the north-westernparts, is likely to change to Xeric Shrubland. Ingeneral, increased CO2 is expected to lead to an

Figure 3.30. Vegetation map for year 2050, GHG run of HadRM2 considering all grids of India and potentialvegetation (including grids without forests). The control run is shown in the left panel.

Dry SavannaXeric ShrublandTropical Seasonal ForestXeric WoodlandMoist SavannaBoreal/temperate Vegetation

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increase in the NPP (as will be discussed later). Thishas an effect of converting grassland into woodlandsand woodlands into forests. Thus, in regions with arelatively large temperature increase, dry and moistsavannas are likely to be replaced by xeric vegetation,while in the areas with a lower temperature increaseand enhanced rainfall, the moist savannas seem to betransformed into Seasonal Tropical Forests. However,the northern part of the country has largely beentransformed into agricultural land and thus thesavannas occupy only a small geographical area.

The other biome type to be affected is the moistsavanna located in the north-east and some parts ofsouthern India. This is likely to be converted intoTropical Seasonal Forest (about 56 per cent), mostlyin the north-east and Xeric woodland (Dry ThornForest) (about 32 per cent) mostly in southern India,depending on the change in the quantum of rainfall.The Tropical Seasonal Forest, especially in the north-east, is likely to change into Tropical Rain Forest dueto a large increase in rainfall expected to take placein that region.

The changes expected in the colder regions are alsoalong similar lines, with the Tundras likely to changeto boreal evergreens, and boreal evergreens intotemperate conifers.

Shifts in major forest types considering grids withforests: As mentioned earlier, the above results werebased on the analysis of the potential forest cover. Tomake a more realistic assessment of the likely impactof projected climate change on forests, the analysiswas repeated by confining it to actual locations offorests. This was made using the map provided bythe Forest Survey of India. This map divides theIndian region into grids of 2.5 × 2.5 minutes andprovides information on the type and density of forestin the grid. This is at a much finer scale than the RCMgrid (about 26 × 26 minutes), and each of the RCMgrids contains about 160 grids of the Forest Surveyof India map. A detailed examination of this mapshowed the presence of forests in about 800 of the1500 RCM grids.

The distribution of forest types obtained in these 800grids under the control run is shown in the left panelof Figure 3.31, while that obtained for the GHG run(for the year 2050) is shown in the right panel ofFigure 3.31. Interestingly, the results obtained fromthe analysis based on these 800 grids were very similarto the ones reported for the 1500 grids. Thus, changesin forest types were seen in about 600 out of the 800forested grids (75 per cent), as compared to a figureof 70 per cent obtained for the analysis based on 1500grids. The biome type likely to be most seriouslyimpacted continues to be the Dry Savanna, and about

Figure 3.31: Vegetation map of India for 2050 including only the grids that have forests at present.

Dry SavannaXeric ShrublandTropical Seasonal ForestXeric WoodlandMoist SavannaBoreal/temperate Vegetation

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70 per cent of it is likely to be converted to XericWoodlands, and about 15 per cent to Xeric Shrubland.These estimates are similar to the 62 per cent and 24per cent obtained earlier for the correspondingchanges. The other forest type likely to be affected isMoist Savanna, with 56 per cent of grids likely to beconverted into Tropical Seasonal Forest and 28 percent into Xeric Woodlands, again very similar to theestimated changes of 56 per cent and 32 per centobtained earlier.

In summary, more realistic estimates of impactsobtained by running the BIOME3 model only on the800 grids corresponding to forested regions are seento be qualitatively and quantitatively very similar tothe ones obtained for the full Indian region (1500grids), thus highlighting the robustness of the trendsinferred from the analysis.

Implications for biodiversity: Independent of climatechange, biodiversity is forecast to decrease in thefuture due to multiple pressures, in particular,increased land-use intensity and the associateddestruction of natural or semi-natural habitats.While there is little evidence to suggest that climatechange will slow species losses, there is evidencethat it may increase species losses. Changes inphenology are expected to occur in many species.The general impact of climate change, is that thehabitats of many species will move poleward orupward from their current locations. Species that makeup a community are unlikely to shift together.Ecosystems dominated by long-lived species (forexample, long-lived trees) will often be slow to showevidence of change and slow to recover from climate-related stresses.

Qualitative observations about the likely impact ofclimate change on wildlife species were made. Ifwoody plants including exotic weeds invade montanegrasslands of the Western Ghats, there would beserious consequences for the endemic Nilgiri tahr.Upward altitudinal migration of plants in theHimalayas could reduce the alpine meadows andrelated vegetation, thus impacting the habitats ofseveral high altitude mammals including wild sheep,goat, antelope and cattle. An increase in precipitationover north-eastern India would lead to severe floodingin the Brahmaputra and place the wildlife of the

Kaziranga National Park at risk. Any large-scalechange in vegetation to drier types over central andnorth-western India would also have consequencesfor the fauna of these regions.

Implications for NPP, growing stock (biomass)and regeneration: At the global level, net biomeproductivity appears to be increasing. Modellingstudies, inventory data and inverse analysesprovide evidence that, over the past few decades,terrestrial ecosystems have been accumulatingcarbon. The mean NPP (grams of carbon per squaremetre per year) was about 338 in the control run,with a maximum value around 1,049. By 2050, asper the BIOME model, these values are likely toshow a considerable increase. The mean valuereaches about 435 (more than 25 per cent increase)while the maximum reaches about 1,400 (more than30 per cent increase). In fact, more than 75 per centof the grids show an increase in NPP. As expected,the grids showing a decrease in NPP lie in thenorthwestern region where a deficit in rainfall, and alarge increase in temperature are expected. However,this region has a rather low value of NPP (about 230),and the projected decrease is also rather small (about13 per cent).

Vulnerability of Forest Ecosystemsin India and Socioeconomic ImpactsThus, even in the relatively short span of about 50years, most of the forest biomes in India seem to behighly vulnerable to the change in climate. Asestimated earlier, about 70 per cent of the locationsare expected to experience a change in the prevailing

Project Tiger is a major initaitive of the Government of Indiafor wildlife management, protection measures and sitespecific ecodevelopment.

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biome type. In other words, about 70 per cent of thevegetation is likely to find itself less optimally adaptedto its existing location, making it more vulnerable tothe adverse climatic conditions as well as to the bioticstresses, which it is subjected to from time to time.As a result, during the process of take-over of onebiome type by another, large-scale mortality mightbe expected.

The actual negative impact may be more than whatis initially expected from the above description.This is because different species responddifferently to the changes in climate. So, even inthe region where there is no shift in the biome type,changes in the composition of the assemblages arecertainly very likely. Thus, one expects that a fewspecies may show a steep decline in populationand perhaps result in local extinctions. This, in turn,will affect the other taxa dependent on the differentspecies (i.e., a ‘domino’ effect) because of theinterdependent nature of the many plant-animal-microbe communities that are known to exist in forestecosystems. This could eventually lead to majorchanges in the biodiversity.

The north-western region of the country seems to bemore vulnerable to climate change, since it is likelyto experience the effect of two negative influences: alarge temperature increase together with a decreasein precipitation. The vulnerability of the north-easternregion stems from a very different cause. The majorincrease in precipitation expected in this region islikely to shift the vegetation towards the wetter, moreevergreen vegetation. Since these are rather slowgrowing, the replacement will take much longer, andincreased mortality in the existing vegetation may leadto a decrease in the standing stock.

Uncertainty of projected impactsGCMs are more robust in projecting global meantemperatures compared to their ability for makingpredictions at the regional levels. The uncertaintyinvolved in projections of temperature and particularlyprecipitation at regional level is high. The vegetationresponse model BIOME-3 is an equilibrium modeland does not project the transient phase responses.Also, the database on soil, water and plantphysiological parameters as input to vegetationmodels such as BIOME-3, is poor. Thus, the findings

of the present analysis should be viewed with caution.Though there is some uncertainty on the magnitudesof the projections of change, and though these mayalso vary with GCMs and RCMs used, the directionof change is unlikely to be different.

Socio-economic impacts: Nearly 200,000 villages inIndia are situated in or on the fringe of forests. Further,about 200 million people depend on forests for theirlivelihood, directly or indirectly. Forest ecosystemsin India are already subjected to socio-economicpressures leading to forest degradation and loss, withadverse impacts on the livelihoods of forest dependentcommunities. Climate change will be an additionalpressure on forests, affecting biodiversity as well asbiomass production. According to the assessment ofprojected climate impacts on forests, significantchanges in the forest boundary of different forestbiomes as well as biodiversity are projected. However,during the transient phase, large-scale forest die-backmay occur. This may affect the production and supplyof non-timber forest products to the forest dependentcommunities, affecting their livelihoods. In thetransient phase, there could be an increased supply oftimber, due to forest die-back, depreciating timberprices.

Forest Policies and Programmes–Vulnerability of Forest EcosystemsForest policies in any country determine the status offorests; rates of deforestation and afforestation, levelsof fragmentation, conservation and protection, and

Reforestation programmes enhance the sequestrationpotential of forests.

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rates of timber and non-timber extraction. Thevulnerability of forest ecosystems to climate changedepends on the status of forests, biodiversity,fragmentation, afforestation practices, rates ofextraction of timber, etc. For example, forestfragmentation may enhance vulnerability and decreasethe adaptation capacity of forest ecosystems to climatechange, whereas biodiversity conservation mayreduce vulnerability.

India has formulated and implemented a large numberof legislations, and forest conservation andreforestation programmes. These programmes havecontributed towards: (a) stabilization of area underforests with marginal rates of deforestation, eventhough forest degradation may be continuing; (b)producing fuelwood and industrial wood, therebyreducing pressure on the forests; and (c) involvementof local communities in protection and managementof forests, even though there is inadequateempowerment of community institutions.

Forest policies, programmes andpractices that enhance vulnerability toclimate changeSome of the policies, programmes and practices thatpotentially contribute to enhancing the vulnerabilityof forest ecosystems to climate change are as follows:

� Forest fragmentation leading to loss of biodiversityby hampering migration of species.

� Forest degradation leading to loss of biodiversity,affecting forest regeneration.

� Dominance of monoculture species underafforestation increase vulnerability to fire, pests,etc.

� Absence of fire protection and managementpractices enhance vulnerability to fire.

� Non-sustainable extraction of timber, fuelwoodand NTFPs leading to degradation of forests,fragmentation of forests and affecting shift offorest boundaries and regeneration of plantspecies.

� Inadequate fuelwood conservation programmesincreases pressure on forests, leading todegradation.

� Inadequate and less-effective implementation ofthe different conservation programmes leading toforest degradation.

There is a need for research studies to identify andassess the implications of policies and programmesto vulnerability of forest ecosystems.

Forest policies, programmes andpractices reducing forest vulnerabilityIndia has implemented a large number of forestconservation and development programmes that havethe potential to reduce the vulnerability of forestecosystems to impacts of climate change.

� The forest Conservation Act 1980, Wild Life Act,Protected Areas and other policies contribute toforest and biodiversity conservation and reductionof forest fragmentation.

� A large afforestation programme has reduced thepressure on forests for timber, industrial wood andfuelwood, leading to conservation of biodiversityand reduction of forest degradation.

� Involvement of local communities in forestprotection and regeneration and creation of long-term stake in forest health, through the Joint ForestManagement (JFM) programme.

The performance and impacts of these measures inquantitative terms are however not clear.

Adaptation Policies, Programmesand Practices

Why adaptation in forest sector?The preliminary assessment of the impact of projectedclimate change, based on BIOME-3 outputs,indicates shifts in forest boundaries, replacementof current assemblage of species, leading to forestdie-back. The need for adaptation measures tominimize the adverse impacts is strengthened dueto the following reasons:

� The impacts such as loss of biodiversity are long-term and irreversible.

� There is inertia and a lag period between climatechange and impacts.

� Long-term planning is necessary for forestconservation, afforestation and silviculturalpractices to impact on forest regeneration andbiodiversity.

� Large forest-dependent rural population andpotential adverse impacts on their livelihood.

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� Inadequate technical, institutional and financialcapacity to adapt to climate change impacts in theforest departments, as well as at the forestdependent community level.

Policies, programmes and practices topromote adaptationThe current state of science has several limitations,particularly in projecting climate change at theregional level and assessing the response of diversetropical forest vegetation to projected climateparameters. The vegetation models such as BIOME-3 do not incorporate the adaptation responsecomponent. Thus, at the current state of knowledgeand the uncertainties involved, only ‘no regret’ or‘win-win’ and a few ‘precautionary’ adaptationpolicies, programmes and practices could beconsidered. Some examples of such measures arelisted here.

Forest policies: India has formulated a large numberof innovative and progressive forest policies, whichhave the potential to reduce vulnerability. Someexamples of policies, which need effectiveimplementation, are as follows:

� Incorporate climate concern in along-term forestpolicy-making process.

� Incorporate climate concern in the forest ‘workingplan’ process to enable incorporation ofsilvicultural practices to promote adaptation.

� Improve and ensure the effective implementationof existing policies/Acts/guidelines such as:

� Forest Conservation Act, 1980; Wildlife ProtectionAct, 1972 and 2002; enhance coverage andeffectiveness of protected area; wildlifeconservation programmes such as Project Tigerand Project Elephant.

� Link Protected Areas, Wildlife Reserves andReserve Forests.

� Enhance support to afforestation and reforestationprogrammes and increase area covered to increasethe production of timber and fuelwood to reducepressure on primary forests.

Forestry and silvicultural practices: Currentafforestation and silvicultural practices dominated byexotics and monocultures are enhancing thevulnerability of forests. Some of the potential

silvicultural practices that could reduce vulnerabilityand enhance resilience are:

� The promotion of natural regeneration in degradedforest lands and mixed species forestry ondegraded non-forest lands.

� The anticipatory planting of species along thelatitudinal and altitudinal gradient.

� The in-situ and ex-situ conservation of plant andanimal species.

� The implementation of fire prevention andmanagement practices.

� The adoption of short rotation species andpractices.

� The adoption of sustainable harvest practices fortimber and non-timber products.

There is a growing need for research to identify thesilvicultural practices which reduce vulnerability offorest ecosystems to changing climate parameters.

Institution and capacity building to address climatechange in forest sector: India has institutions withsignificant infrastructure and technical capacity.However, these institutions have not focused onclimate change research, which includes modelling,field ecological studies and laboratoryexperimentation. There is a need to create awarenessand enhance technical and institutional capacity inthe research institutions, forest department and NGOs.Forest dependent communities have poor financial,technical and institutional capacity to adapt to adverseimpacts of climate change. Thus, it is necessary toenhance the capacity of those forest-dependentcommunities who are likely to be vulnerable toprojected climate impacts.

ConclusionsA preliminary assessment using the BIOME-3vegetation response model, based on regional climatemodel projections for India showed shifts in forestboundary, changes in species-assemblage or foresttypes, changes in NPP, possible forest die-back in thetransient phase, and potential loss or change inbiodiversity. These impacts on forests will haveadverse socio-economic implications for forest-dependent communities and the national economy.The impacts of climate change on forest ecosystemsare likely to be long term and irreversible.

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There is a need for developing and implementingadaptation strategies to minimize the adverse impacts.Further, there is a need to study and identify the forestpolicies, programmes and silvicultural practices thatcontribute to vulnerability of forest ecosystems toclimate change.

India needs to initiate studies to identify foreststrategies, policies, silvicultural practices andinstitutional arrangements that enhance forestresilience and reduce vulnerability.

India should initiate long-term dedicated research,monitoring and modelling programmes to studyvegetation responses to climate change, generateregional climate projections, improve dynamicvegetation models and their application, andconduct policy analysis to develop adaptationstrategies.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ONNATURAL ECOSYSTEMS

The large geographical area, varied topography andclimatic regimes, long coastline and the possessionof oceanic islands, have endowed India with adiversity of natural biomes from deserts to alpinemeadows, from tropical rainforest to temperate pineforests, from mangroves to coral reefs, and frommarshland to high-altitude lakes. The naturalecosystems have also been subject to exploitation andalteration by humans for several thousand years, andthus only a small fraction of these probably remain ina pristine state. Nevertheless, about one-fifth to one-fourth of the geographical area still comprisesrelatively ‘natural’ ecosystems; of this, forests occupythe major area. The non-forest ecosystems includemainly the wetlands (including mangrove forests andcoral reefs) and the grasslands. The assessment ofimpacts of projected climate change on naturalecosystems is not based on modeling or field studies,but on current vulnerability and global-levelprojection of impacts from literature.

WetlandsThe natural wetland ecosystems of India include themarine ecosystems such as the coral reefs; coastalecosystems such as the mangroves; and inland fresh-water ecosystems such as rivers, lakes and marshes.

The most comprehensive wetland inventory of Indiathat is available at present, is that prepared by theSpace Application Centre (SAC) of the Indian SpaceResearch Organization, using satellite imagery for theyears 1991-1992. This inventory has listed 27,403wetland units occupying a total area of 75,819 km2,with the coastal wetlands comprising 53 per cent andthe rest being inland wetlands.

Marine ecosystems (Mangroves andcoral reefs)The Indian coastline is over 7,500 km, and includingthe islands of Lakshadweep and the Andaman andNicobars. As many as 3,959 coastal wetland sites,classified under 13 major wetland types, and coveringa geographical area of 40,230 km2 have been mappedby the Space Application Centre across nine statesand four Union Territories. Of these, 426 sites (1,424km2) are man-made wetlands (salt pans andaquaculture ponds) and the rest are natural coastalwetlands. (Table 3.6).

The coastal wetlands play an important role in theeconomy of this region, especially in fisheries. Themangroves and the coral reefs in particular areimportant nurseries for several fishes, prawns andcrabs. Of the annual fish catch of about 5.6 Mt, abouthalf is from marine fisheries; the coral reefs andassociated shelves and lagoons alone have thepotential for about 10 per cent of the total marine fishyields. Climate change impacts on the coastalwetlands would thus have serious consequences forthe livelihoods of people, as well as the integrity ofthe coastal environment.

MangrovesMangroves are mainly distributed along the east coastof the country and to a lesser extent along the westcoast. The Sunderbans, covering an area of about10,000 km2 along the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta,constitute the largest mangrove wetland in the world;of this area, about 40 per cent is found in West Bengaland the rest in Bangladesh. Other importantmangroves include the Mahanadi mangrove in Orissa,the Godavari and Krishna mangroves in AndhraPradesh, the Pichavaram and Muthupet mangrovesin the Cauvery delta of Tamil Nadu, the mangrovesin the Gulf of Kutchh in Gujarat, and those in theAndaman and Nicobar islands.

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Table 3.6: Area under various coastal and inland wetland types.

Types of Coastal Area Inland Wetland Category Number AreaWetlands (sq. km) (sq. km)

Tidal Mudflats 23, 621 NaturalMangroves 4,871 Lakes/Ponds 4646 6795Estuaries 1,540 Ox-bow lakes 3197 1511Lagoons 1,564 Waterlogged (Seasonal) 4921 2857Sand Beaches 4,210 Playas 79 1185Marshes 1,698 Swamps/Marshes 1814 1978Other Vegetated Wetlands 1,391 Man-madeCoral Reefs 841 Reservoirs 2208 14820Creeks 192 Tanks 5549 5583Backwaters 171 Waterlogged 892 773Rocky Coasts 177 Abandoned Quarries (water) 105 58Salt-Pans 655 Ash ponds/Cooling ponds 33 29Aquaculture Ponds 769 Total Inland Wetlands 23444 35589

Source: Space Application Centre.

The mangroves are at risk due to direct human activitiesas well as due to climate change.

With the exception of the mangroves of the Andamanand Nicobars, the mangroves of the country arealready considerably degraded. The development ofagriculture in the deltas of the major rivers, thereclamation of the coastal wetland for settlement andthe use of mangroves to supply products such as fuel-wood have resulted in considerable shrinkage of themangrove areas. According to one estimate themangrove cover of the country reduced by 35 per centduring the period 1987-1995 alone (estimate madeby Sustainable Wetlands, Environmental Governance-2 in 1999).

Climate change impacts on the mangrove ecosystemswould be governed by factors such as sea-levelchanges, storm surges, fresh-water flows in rivers bothfrom precipitation in their catchments as well as fromsnow melt in the mountains, local precipitation, andtemperature changes that would influenceevapotranspiration. Sea-level rise would submerge themangroves as well as increase the salinity of thewetland. This would favour mangrove plants thattolerate higher salinity. At the same time, increasedsnow melt in the western Himalayas could bring largerquantities of fresh water into the Gangetic delta. Thiswould have significant consequences for thecomposition of the Sundarbans mangroves. Changesin local temperature and precipitation would alsoinfluence the salinity of the mangrove wetlands andhave a bearing on plant composition. Any increase infreshwater flows would favour mangrove species thathave the least tolerance to salinity.

It is therefore, necessary to model the specificscenarios for the various mangrove ecosystems usingclimate change projections, changes in freshwater andsediment flows, geomorphology, sea-level change andthe land use of the coastal region.

Coral reefsCoral reefs are distributed in six major regions alongthe Indian coastline. These are the Gulf of Kutchh in

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Gujarat, the Malwan coast in Maharashtra, theLakshadweep islands, Gulf of Mannar and Palk Bayin Tamil Nadu, and the Andaman and Nicobar islands.Built up during the Tertiary and the QuaternaryPeriods, the coral reefs in the Indian Ocean includesea level atolls (Lakshadweep archipelago), fringingreefs (Gulf of Mannar, Palk Bay, and Andaman andNicobars), reef barriers (Andaman and Nicobars),elevated reefs and submerged reef platforms.

The biodiversity of the coral reefs includes a varietyof marine organisms, including sea grasses, corals,several invertebrate groups, fishes, amphibians, birds(nesting on the reefs) and mammals. The reefs of theAndaman and Nicobar islands have the highestrecorded diversity with 203 coral species, 120 algalspecies, and 70 sponges in addition to fishes, seaturtles, dugong and dolphins. About 1,200 species offishes have been recorded in the seas around theislands, including 571 species of reef fish. The reefsof the Gulf of Mannar and Lakshaweep islands haveintermediate levels of diversity, with 117 species and95 species of hard corals respectively. The Gulf ofKutchh is the least diverse, with only 37 species ofcorals and the absence of ramose forms.

The coral reefs in the Indian region are already underthreat from several anthropogenic and natural factors,including destructive fishing, mining, sedimentation,and invasion by alien species. To this we must addthe possible impacts of future climate change.

It is well known that increased sea surface temperature(SST) results in ‘bleaching’ of corals. While bleaching

is a normal event and is reversible, a prolongedincrease in SSTs and/or intense bleaching may resultin the death of the corals. In recent decades, the mostwidespread and intense bleaching of corals (‘massbleaching’), including in the Indian Ocean, occurredduring the years 1997-1998 associated with El Ninowhen SSTs were enhanced by over 3° C, the warmestin modern record. While the coral reefs of India toowere adversely affected, the precise extent ofbleaching and mortality of corals is not clear in manyregions.

The corals of the Lakshadweep islands were, however,significantly affected by this event with bleaching ofover 80 per cent of coral cover and mortality of over25 per cent of corals. The corals of the Gulf of Mannarwere similarly affected. The most affected wereshallow water corals, such as the branching Acoporaand Pocillopora that were almost completely wipedout. Bleaching also affected the massive corals butthese recovered and now dominate the reefs. The leastaffected coral reefs were those in the Gulf of Kutchhwith an average of about 10 per cent bleaching andlittle mortality.

Inland or freshwater wetlandsThe inland wetlands include a large number of naturallakes and swamps or marshes, as well as man-madereservoirs and tanks.

The SAC inventory lists 23,444 inland wetland unitscovering an area of 35,589 km2 in total. Of these, thenatural inland wetlands numbering 14,657 units coveran area of 14,326 km2, are relevant to the discussionof climate change impacts. It must also be rememberedthat some of the man-made wetlands such as atBharatpur in Rajasthan are exceptionally rich in birdspecies and should be considered as a natural wetlandfor the purpose of conservation in the face of climatechange.

As in many other parts of the world, the inlandwetlands of India have been transformed by drainingfor urban settlement, agricultural development,construction of roads, exploitation for their resources,and pollution from a variety of sources. A study bythe Wildlife Institute of India showed that 70-80 percent of freshwater marshes and lakes in the Gangeticfloodplains have been lost over the past five decades.Coral bleaching due to warming.

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Pollution of the wetlands is mainly from the dischargeof sewage, industrial effluents, agricultural chemicalssuch as pesticides and fertilizers, and sedimentationfrom soil erosion.

Climate change impacts on the inland wetlands wouldbe a complex issues dependent on several variables,including temperature increase, rate of evaporation,changes in precipitation of the catchment, changes innutrient cycling and the responses of a variety ofaquatic species. Although tropical lakes are less likelyto be impacted by climate change as compared totemperate lakes, an increase in temperature wouldalter the thermal cycles of lakes, oxygen solubilityand other compounds, and affect the ecosystem. Inhigh-altitude lakes an increased temperature wouldresult in the loss of winter ice cover; this would causea major change in the seasonal cycle and speciescomposition of the lake. Reduced oxygenconcentration could alter community structure,characterized by fewer species, especially ifexacerbated by eutrophication from surrounding landuse. Lake-level changes from increased temperatureand changes in precipitation would also altercommunity structure.

Shallow-water marshes and swamps would be evenmore vulnerable to increased temperatures and lowerprecipitation as projected for central and north-western India by the Hadley Centre’s HADCM2. Theincreased evaporation of water and reduced inflowfrom rainfall could desiccate the marshes, swampsand shallow lakes.

GrasslandsThere are five major grassland types recognized inIndia, on the basis of species associations,geographical location and climatic factors. These are:(a) alpine grasslands of the Himalayas; (b) moistfluvial grasslands of the Himalayan foothills; (c) aridgrasslands of northwestern India; (d) semi-aridgrasslands of central and peninsular India; and (e)montane grasslands of the Western Ghats

The same anthropogenic factors such as livestockgrazing and fire that were responsible for creatingmany of the grassland types in the country are alsoinvolved in their degradation. While moderate levelsof grazing could be sustainable and even promote

plant species diversity, heavy grazing reduces the plantcover and eliminates palatable grasses and herbs whilepromoting the growth of unpalatable plants.

When considering the likely impact of future climatechange on natural grasslands, we need to considerseveral factors including the direct response of grassesto enhanced atmospheric CO2, as well as changes intemperature, precipitation and soil moisture. It is wellknown that plants with the C3 and the C4 pathwaysof photosynthesis respond differently to atmosphericCO2

levels and also to temperature and soil moisture

levels. The C3 plants include the cool, temperategrasses and practically all woody dicots, while theC4 plants include the warm, tropical grasses, manysedges and some dicots. The C4 plants that constitutemuch of the biomass of tropical grasslands, includingthe arid, semi-arid and moist grasslands in India, thrivewell under conditions of lower atmospheric CO2

levels, higher temperatures and lower soil moisture,while C3 plants exhibit the opposing traits. Increasingatmospheric CO2

levels should, therefore, favour C3

plants over C4 grasses, but the projected increases intemperature would favour the C4 plants. The outcomeof climate change would thus be region-specific andinvolve a complex interaction of factors.

GCM model projections (for example, the HADCM2)for India indicate an increase in precipitation by upto 30 per cent for the north-eastern region in additionto a relatively moderate increase in temperature ofabout 2° C by the period 2041-2060. This couldincrease the incidence of flooding in the Brahmaputrabasin and thus favour the maintenance of the moistgrasslands in the regions. The HADCM2 projectionsfor the rest of the country (southern, central and north-western India are a steep increase in temperature of3° C in the south (except along the coast) to over 4°C in the north-west, and a decrease in precipitationof over 30 per cent in the north-west though littlechange in parts of the south. This combination oftemperature increase and rainfall decrease wouldcause major changes in the composition of present-day vegetation in these regions, with an overall shiftto a more arid type. Increased atmospheric CO2

levels

and temperatures, resulting in lowered incidence offrost, would favour C3, plants including exotic weedssuch as wattle (Acacia spp.) that could invade themontane grasslands of the Western Ghats. The cool,

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temperate grasslands of the Himalayas could also beimpacted by rising temperatures that would promotethe upward migration of woody plants from lowerelevations.

An assessment of climate change impacts on naturalecosystems would require a systematic programmeof documenting ecosystem processes, modellingclimate change impacts and formulating strategies foradaptation.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ONCOASTAL ZONES

Indian Coastal Zones and climatechangeThe coastal zone is an important and critical regionfor India. This region is densely populated andstretches over 7,500 km, with the Arabian Sea on thewest and the Bay of Bengal on the east. It is inhabitedby more than a 100 million people in nine coastalstates (West Bengal, Orissa, Andhra Pradesh andTamil Nadu on the east coast, and Kerala, Karnataka,Goa, Maharashtra and Gujarat on the west coast), twoUTs (Pondicherry and Daman and Diu) and twogroups of islands (Andaman and Nicobars, andLakshdweep). According to the census of 2001, therewere about 65 coastal districts in these nine states.The total area occupied by the coastal districts isaround 379,610 km2, with an average populationdensity of 455 persons per km2, which is about 1.5times the national average of 324 (Census, 2001). The

Table 3.7: Physiographic characteristics of the Indian coastline.

Source: NIO

Coastline part Coastline type

North-east coast (West Bengal, Orissa Emerging coastline with no offshore barand parts of Andhra Pradesh)

Shoreline off the mouths of Ganga, Mahanadi, Neutral and highly dynamic (due to the large influx ofKrishna, Godavari and Cauvery Rivers sediments) coastline

Southeast coast (Tamil Nadu and parts of AP) Emerging coastline with an offshore bar and lagoonSouthwest coast (Kerala) Submerging coastline (highly-indented shoreline with an

erosional tendency)

Mid-west coast (Karnataka, Goa, Maharashtra) Submerging coastline (network of coastal rivers, inlandcreeks, backwaters and rocky headlands)

North West coast (Gujarat) Submerging coastline (creeks and inland waters)

Indian coastline can be categorized into threeclasses—coast of emergence, coast of submergenceand neutral coast (Table 3.7).

The western coastline has a wide continental shelfwith an area of about 0.31 million km2, which is markedby backwaters and mud flats. East coast is flat, deltaicand rich in mangrove forests. Mangroves are located allalong estuarine areas, deltas, tidal creeks, mud flats,salt marshes and extend to about 6740 km2. Majorestuarine areas located along the Indian coasts extendto about 2.6 million hectares. Coral reefs arepredominant on small islands in Gulf of Kutchh, Gulfof Mannar in Tamil Nadu and on Lakshadweep andthe Andaman and Nicobar islands. Ecosystems suchas coral reefs, mangroves, estuaries and deltas are richin biodiversity. These ecosystems play a crucial rolein fishery production in addition to protecting thecoastal zones from erosion by wave action. There are11 major and 130 minor sea ports located in coastalzones that are economic engines of international andnational trade and commerce in India.

Future climate change in the coastal zones is likely tobe manifested through the worsening of some of theexisting coastal zone problems. Some of the mainclimate-related problems in the context of the Indiancoastal zones are erosion, flooding, subsidence,deterioration of coastal ecosystems, such asmangroves, and salinization. In many cases, theseproblems are either caused by or exacerbated by sealevel-rise and tropical cyclones. The key climate-

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related risks in the coastal zone include tropicalcyclones, sea-level rise, and changes in temperatureand precipitation in the context of the Indian coastalzones.

A rise in sea level has significant implications on thecoastal population and agricultural performance ofIndia. A variety of impacts are expected whichinclude:

� Land loss and population displacement.� Increased flooding of low-lying coastal areas.� Agricultural impacts (like, loss of yield and

employment) resulting from inundation,salinization, and land loss.

� Impacts on coastal aquaculture.� Impacts on coastal tourism, particularly the erosion

of sandy beaches.

The extent of vulnerability, however, depends not juston the physical exposure to sea-level rise andpopulation affected, but also on the extent of economicactivity of the areas and capacity to cope with impacts.The coastal ecosystems sustain a higher density ofhuman population. The pressure on coastal areas hasbeen growing due to migration from inland to thecoastal zone making it vulnerable to the increasedfrequency and intensity of natural and humaninterventions. The reason for this increased pressureis due to the greater employment opportunities, whencompared to inland areas of the coastal states, as someof the major urban centres are located in this region.For instance, three of the four major Indianmetropolitan areas are located in the coastal region(Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai). Moreover, out ofthe 35 urban agglomerations (UA) with a million pluspopulation identified for India in the census of 2001,18 (viz., Rajkot, Ahmedabad, Vadodara, Surat, GreaterMumbai, Pune, Nagpur, Nashik, Bangalore, Kochi,Hyderabad, Vishakhapatnam, Vijayawada, Chennai,Coimbatore, Madurai, Asansol, and Kolkata) aresituated in the coastal states. From among these, eightlie on the coastline. The activities in many of theseareas tend to exceed the capacity of the natural coastalecosystem to absorb them, making these regionsvulnerable to the increased frequency and intensityof natural and man-made hazards.

Methods and Models for AssessingVulnerabilityVulnerability is considered as a composite of: (a)climate-related hazards that are relevant andsignificant in the coastal zone; (b) exposure—socio-economic components, including human andmanufactured capital, as well as natural ecosystemsthat are exposed to climate risk; (c) adaptivecapacity—the ability of the exposed units to perceiveand formulate a response and implement to climaterisk, with a view to reducing impacts.

Assessment of coastal zones to projected climateimpacts and development of adaptation strategiesinclude:

� a description and analysis of present vulnerability,including representative vulnerable groups (forinstance, specific livelihoods at the risk of climatichazards).

� descriptions of potential vulnerabilities in thefuture, including an analysis of pathways that relatethe present to the future.

� comparison of vulnerability under different socio-economic conditions, climatic changes andadaptive responses.

� identification of points and options forintervention, which would lead to formulation ofadaptation responses.

� relating the range of outputs to stakeholderdecision making, public awareness and furtherassessments.

Greater emphasis is placed on the first twocomponents, that is, hazard and exposure, and theircombination, which are the actual climate impacts incoastal regions. While adaptive capacity is important,and key in determining future, as opposed to currentvulnerability, there are a number of significantmethodological and conceptual issues with regard toadaptive capacity.

Climate-Related Coastal Hazards–Current VulnerabilityThe characteristics of the key climate-related risks inthe coastal zone, including sea-level rise and tropicalcyclones and, are presented.

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Table 3.8: Percent area for erosion and depositional segments of the coastline of the states along the WestCoast of India (left panel) and East Coast of India (right panel).

Gujarat has ‘submerging type’ ofcoastline, which is more prone to theeffects of sea-level rise. The Gulf ofKutchh has a highly dynamic coastline.The Gulf of Khambhat is a potential sitefor shoal migration and vulnerable tolarge shoreline changes because of the

prevalent macro-tidal regime. The southern coast of Gujarathas a highly dynamic coastline with erosion tendency.

The northern coast of Maharashtra hasan indented coastline with many creeks,inland waters, and pocket beaches. Thecoastline, though mostly rocky along thecoast due to the presence of theSahyadri Range, is under threat at manylocations due to the reduced fluvial input.

The west coast fault (a N-S trending regional tectonic feature)and the submergence characteristics add to the vulnerabilityof these regions.

Goa has many pocket beaches. Owingto pressure from tourism-relatedanthropogenic activities, some of thebeaches are destabilized and arevulnerable in the event of sea-level rise.

The shoreline of Karnataka is indentedwith hills, creeks, and small estuarinerivers, the mouths of which havedynamic shoaling. In the southernregion, the shoreline is more dynamiccompared to the north. The mouths ofthe small coastal rivers and backwaters

at many places are undergoing erosion. The coastline atlocations with dynamic and migrating shoaling activities isprone to destruction.

The shoreline of Kerala is, by and large,dynamic, with a high erosion tendency.The entire coastline of Kerala isvulnerable to sea-level rise, and needsspecial attention.

Pockets of high erosion all along thecoast with high erosion in the Gulf ofMannar and the Tuticorin area. Thesouthern part of Tamil Nadu isvulnerable due to localized segmentsof unstable shoreline.

In Orissa the shoreline is dynamic dueto the high fluvial input and is metastablein the creeks and backwaters. It issubjected to severe erosion duringcyclones/depressions. The coastal areahas numerous small and large riversand their distributaries, which fan out

into the coastal region, and are prone to salinity ingress,particularly in the event of sea-level rise.

The southern coast of Andhra Pradeshis more dynamic than the northerncoast. The coasts along the mouths ofall major rivers are highly dynamic, asthe mouths of many perennial rivers aremigratory. The area is also frequentlyaffected by cyclones, and the shoreline

is highly sensitive to such extreme natural processes

The fluvial flux from the Ganga and theBrahmaputra Rivers make the shorelineof West Bengal very dynamic due tothe large. At many places, the shorelineis erosional (Digha Beach), and largechanges in the island geomorphologyhave been observed. The delta region

is also highly dynamic and the islands located in thisregion need special consideration. The Sunderban areaand the Hooghly estuarine regions are the two other areasthat are found to be the most vulnerable to the observedsea-level rise.

Sea-level RiseThis is based on available data shoreline changesover a short span of 10-15 years, along the Indiancoastline. Using the available models, global sea-levelrise of 10-25 cm per 100 years has been predicted due

to the emission of GHGs. To separate the influencesdue to the global climatic changes the available meansea-level historical data from 1920 to 1999 at 10locations were evaluated. There is a large contrast inthe observed sea level changes. The sea level rise

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along the Gulf of Kutchh and the coast of West Bengalis the highest. Along the Karnataka coast, however,there is a relative decrease in the sea level.

Shoreline morphologies respond to prevalenthydrography and the changes in the shoreline havebeen estimated and categorized broadly as erosive,dynamic, and depositional. Based on thecomparisons of satellite data and hydrographiccharts, the shoreline changes along the Indiancoastline were examined for a 10-15 year span. Thestate-wise characteristics of the shoreline for the

Figure 3.32: Estimated sea level rise at selectedlocations along the Indian Coastline.*

*The values on the left-side corner indicate sea-level variations peryear. A minus figure indicates a relative increase in the mean sealevel with respect to the land.

Figure 3.33: Likely vulnerable locations due to sealevel rise.

Indian coast are shown in Tables 3.8.

The magnitude of tides has been predicted for 121stations and has a high correlation with observed tides.The most vulnerable areas of the Indian coastline,determined from the risk assessment, is identifiedfrom the integration of physiographic evaluation, site-specific sea-level changes, tidal environment andhydrography data. The physiographic settings andtidal regime are important parameters to determinethe resilience of an area to the influence of sea-levelrise. From the estimated tidal environment at 121stations, it is observed that the mean spring tide rangesshow a progressive increase towards north along theeast coast (Figure 3.32). A similar trend is alsoobserved along the West Coast. Some of the highesttidal ranges are measured at stations in the Gulf ofKutchh and in the Gulf of Khambhat. From the timeseries mean spring tide amplitude, it is deduced thatthe northern areas along the east, as well as west coastshave a higher tidal range and very wide intertidal andsupratidal zone.

The areas along the Indian coastline that are likely tobe vulnerable to the predicted sea-level rise based onpredicted sea level changes, tectonics, prevalenthydrography, and physiography of the areas can beseen from the Figure 3.33. These vulnerable regionsneed special attention.

Tropical CyclonesFor the Indian region, the data on cyclonic events isavailable from 1877. The spatial, temporal patters ofoccurrence is presented in Box 3.8.

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Trends in Tropical Cyclone Incidence: Storms depicta decreasing trend (-0.017/year) significant at one percent level. Severe Storms (SS) show an increasingtrend (0.011/year) significant at one per cent level.Cyclone incidences show mixed trends spatially. WestBengal and Gujarat showed significant increasingtrend, while Orissa showed a significant decreasingtrend.

Cyclone Hazard Indices: Indices were developed torepresent the cyclone hazard and to identify the coastaldistricts that face the maximum cyclone occurrences.Three indices were computed. The first index is thefrequency of events (by cyclone type, i.e., depressions,storms and severe storms) in a particular district. Thesecond is by normalizing the number of events in adistrict by the coastline length of the districts; and

The Spatial Pattern of Cyclone Incidences and theFacts (data from 1877 to 1990)� 1,474 cyclones originated in the Bay of Bengal

and the Arabian Sea during this period.� 964 cyclones crossed the Indian coastline.� Three districts of West Bengal (174 events).� Seven districts of Orissa (422 events).� Nine districts of Andhra Pradesh (203 events).� 15 districts of Tamil Nadu (100 events)

The Temporal Pattern of Cyclone Incidences� Depressions have a distinct peak in the month

of August.

Box 3.8: Cyclonic Events

Table 3.9: Ranking of the districts based on different indices of cyclone hazard

Indices Frequency of SS SS normalized SS normalized byRank by coastline length district area

1 South 24 Parganas (WB) Karaikal (Pondicherry) Chennai (TN)2 North 24 Parganas (WB) Nagapattinam (TN) Nagapattinam (TN)3 Nellore (AP) Villupuram (TN) North 24 Parganas (WB)4 Srikakulam (AP) Chennai (AP) Jagatsinghpur (Orissa)5 Nagapattinam (TN) Jagatsinghpur (Orissa) Kendrapara (Orissa)6 Junagadh (Gujarat) Pondicherry Baleshwar (Orissa)7 East Godavari (AP) Cuddalore (Orissa) Srikakulam (AP)8 Baleshwar (Orissa) North 24 Parganas (WB) South 24 Parganas (WB)9 Kendrapara (Orissa) Nellore (AP) Porbandar (Gujarat)10 Krishna (AP) Baleshwar (Orissa) Bhadrak (Orissa)

� Storms have two distinct peaks in June andOctober.

� Severe storms have distinct peaks in May andNovember.

� The total number of tropical cyclones seasonalityfollow the path of the depression.

Average based on the Facts:� 8.45 cyclones cross the Indian coastline per year.� 5.15 depressions cross the Indian coastline on

an average per year.� 1.93 storms occur on an average per year.� 1.35 severe storms occur on an average per year.

the third is normalizing the number of events in adistrict by area of that coastal district. Table 3.9presents the top 10 districts according to each of theindices for the severe storm category of cyclones.

The indices have been developed for the districts,rather than a continuous and a uniform metric likeper 100 km of coastline length, since the impact datais reported for districts. Hence, there are differencesin rankings for districts on the basis of different indices.Thus, Chennai ranks first when the number of cyclonesis normalized by district area and Karikal ranks firstwhen the number of cyclones is normalized by districtcoastline length, whereas South 24 Parganas ranks firstfor other indices. This is because Chennai andKaraikal have much smaller area and coastline lengthrespectively, when compared to other districts.

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Exposure indices: Exposure refers to the extent towhich the human systems are unprotected fromclimate-related natural hazards. Exposure can beunderstood of in two ways–physical and socio-economic. Historical record that spans three decades(census publications for the 1971, 1981, 1991 and2001 census years) have been used to study the aspectsof the population and construction of households atthe coastal district level. Exposure indicators basedon Housing Index (using the distribution of housingstock across the different categories of houses (basedon the wall material) and the knowledge ofsusceptibility of a particular category of house tostorm and flood damage); and Population index (thedensity of population has been considered the measureof population exposure to hazards).

Based on the rankings of 52 coastal districts belongingto eight states:

� The top five districts which had the maximumexposure in terms of housing wereo Valsad, Uttar Kannada, Ratnagiri, Ganjam and

Kozikhode. Of these:o four lie on the west coast (cyclone incidence is

lesser on the west coast when compared to theeast coast).

o This implies vulnerability of west coast(submergent type ) to sea level rise.

� The top five districts with high exposure levelsconsidering exposure in terms of density ofpopulation were:o South 24 Parganas, industrialized towns like

Surat, place of tourist attraction Sindhudurg andtowns in river floodplains and deltas West andEast Godavari Krishna.

o Greater Bombay and Chennai have the highestexposure levels (urban).

� The exposure levels have increased over the yearsin terms of the absolute number of people, densityof population and the size of the housing stock.

Data on human mortality, livestock mortality, damageto houses, damage to crop area, loss in monetary termsand population affected are used to measure impactsof climate-related extreme events. The approachfollowed for analyzing the impacts of the cycloneshas been to rank the districts on the basis of an impactindex, in order to obtain an idea about the districts

that have historically suffered the maximum impacts.

The top five districts in the east coast, namely,Nagapattinam, Jagatsinghpur, Balasore, Bhadrak andNellore and Porbandar and Junagadh, ranked thehighest in terms of mortality due to the severe stormswhich occurred in the period 1971 to 1990.

Current Vulnerability of the Indian Coastal Zones:For assessing the vulnerability of the Indian coastalzones, three indices each for hazard, exposure andimpacts were selected and computed. The impactswere represented by cumulative deaths, deaths perevent and cumulative deaths per million of thepopulation. Statistical correlations (Spearman’s rank)between different indices were computed. The districtranks for the impact indices and hazard indices arecorrelated with each other. However, the district ranksfor the exposure indices are not correlated, implyingthat the hazard, exposure and impacts interact incomplex ways to define the vulnerability of a district.To capture this, a complex cluster analysis wasperformed. The cluster analysis grouped the 14districts used in the analysis into two major clusters,classified as highly vulnerable and somewhatvulnerable. The rest were classified into lessvulnerable cluster. Table 3.10 shows the classificationof Indian coastal districts on the basis of vulnerability.

Agricultural Development in Coastal Districts: Theeastern coast districts are major producers of rice inIndia, and adverse effects of climate change may havean impact on production and availability of foodgrains in the country. The literature shows that theseshortfalls have the potential to create marketimbalances that can further lead to market and pricefluctuations. Agricultural production in these coastalareas is heavily dependent on climatic conditions,despite the availability of irrigation facilities. In TamilNadu, the growth rate for the area irrigated isdeclining. In other states, a rise in area irrigated hasgiven a thrust towards commercial crops, such asgroundnut and sugarcane and, hence, extreme climaticshocks like storms and severe storms can have anegative effect on agriculture and the incomes ofpeople. The settlements in coastal areas of India havea high percentage of people, whose income is derivedfrom climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture,fisheries and forestry.

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Climate-related Coastal Hazards—Future ScenarioThe past observations on the mean sea level alongthe Indian coast show a long-term rising trend of about1.0 mm/year. However, the recent data suggests arising trend of 2.5 mm/year in the sea-level alongIndian coastline. Model simulation studies, based onan ensemble of four AOGCM outputs, indicate thatthe oceanic region adjoining the Indian subcontinentis likely to warm at its surface by about 1.5-2.0

oC by

the middle of this century and by about 2.5-3.5oC by

the end of the century. The corresponding thermalexpansion, related sea-level rise is expected to bebetween 15 cm and 38 cm by the middle of this centuryand between 46 cm and 59 cm by the end of thecentury. A one-metre sea level rise is projected todisplace approximately 7.1 million people in India,and about 5,764 km2 of land area will be lost, alongwith 4,200 km of roads. An increase in the frequency

of severe cyclonic storms is likely under the climatechange scenario; this may enhance the vulnerabilityof those districts that are already ranked as vulnerableunder the current climate scenario.

Adaptation OptionsThere are a number of adaptation options that couldbe adopted for reducing the vulnerability of a coastalsystem to climate-related hazards. These adaptationoptions could be classified into structural and non-structural interventions. Structural interventionsbasically attempt to change the physical conditionsof the natural system and resource base throughtechnological interventions. It involves putting up ofartificial physical structures in the landscape, forexample building dikes or seawalls or enhancing thenatural setting or landscape in such a manner so as toprovide protection from the climate-related coastalhazards. Planting of mangroves, beach nourishment,etc., are some examples of other interventions. Non-structural approaches employ land-use controls,information dissemination, and economic incentivesto reduce or prevent disasters. The Coastal RegulationZone, or using insurance to cover the risk related toimpacts of climate-related hazards would fall underthe non-structural measures. A coastal zonemanagement plan should also include research anddevelopment activities for cost-effective methods forthe protection of coastal lands. Rules and regulationsmust be framed and enforced to have a control overthe developmental activities and to put restrictionson seaward extrusion.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ONHEALTH

People have adapted to living in a wide variety ofclimates around the world—from the tropics to thearctic. Both climate and weather have a powerfulimpact on human life and health. Human physiologycan handle most variations in weather, within certainlimits. Certain health outcomes associated with theprevailing environmental conditions include illnessesand death associated with temperature extremes,storms and other heavy precipitation events, airpollution, water contamination, and diseases carriedby mosquitoes, ticks, and rodents. As a result of thepotential consequences of these stresses actingindividually or in combination, it is possible that

Table 3.10: Classification of Indian coastal districtson the vulnerability to cyclones

Vulnerability Districts

Highly Cuttack (now Jagatsinghpur

vulnerable and Kendrapara) in Orissa;

Nellore in Andhra Pradesh;

Thanjavur (now Nagapattinam) in

Tamil Nadu;

Junagadh (now Junagadh and

Porbandar) in Gujarat.

Somewhat North 24 Parganas in West Bengal;

vulnerable South 24 Parganas in West Bengal;

Baleshwar (now Baleshwar and

Bhadrak) in Orissa;

Srikakulam in Andhra Pradesh;

East Godavari in Andhra Pradesh;

Guntur in Andhra Pradesh;

Krishna in Andhra Pradesh;

Chengalpattu (now Thiruvallur) in

Tamil Nadu;

South Arcot (now Cuddalore) in

Tamil Nadu; and

Ramnathpuram in Tamil Nadu.

Less vulnerable The rest of the coastal districts.

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projected climate change will have measurablebeneficial and adverse impacts on health.

In India, the overall susceptibility of the populationto environmental health concerns has droppeddramatically during the past few years with theimprovement in availability of the healthinfrastructure. However, the extent of access to andutilization of health care has varied substantiallybetween states, districts and different segments ofsociety; to a large extent this is responsible forsubstantial differences between states in health indicesof the population. During the 1990s, the mortalityrates reached a plateau and the country entered an eraof dual disease burden. Communicable diseases havebecome more difficult to combat because of theemergence of insecticide-resistant strains of vectorsand antibiotic-resistant strains of bacteria. Under-nutrition, micro-nutrient deficiencies and associatedhealth problems coexist with obesity and non-communicable diseases in the country. The existingsystem suffers from inequitable distribution ofinstitutions and access to nutrition and health care.

Current climate trends have shown an increase inmaximum temperatures, heavy intense rainfall insome areas and emergence of intense cyclones. In thesummer of 1994, western India experiencedtemperatures as high as 50°C, providing favourableconditions for disease-carrying vectors to breed. In1994, as summer gave way to the monsoon andwestern India was flooded with rains for three months,the western state of Gujarat was hit by a malaria

epidemic. Weather conditions determine malariatransmission to a considerable extent. Heavy rainfallresults in puddles, which provide good breedingconditions for mosquitoes. In arid areas of westernRajasthan and Gujarat, malaria epidemics have oftenfollowed excessive rainfall. In very humid climates,drought may also turn rivers into puddles. Similarly,the super-cyclone in 1999 caused at least 10,000deaths in Orissa and the total number of peopleaffected was estimated at 10-15 million.

Changes in climate may alter the distribution ofimportant vector species (for example, mosquitoes)and may increase the spread of disease to new areasthat lack a strong public health infrastructure. Highaltitude populations that fall outside areas of stableendemic malaria transmission may be particularlyvulnerable to increases in malaria, due to climatewarming. The seasonal transmission and distributionof many other diseases transmitted by mosquitoes(dengue, yellow fever) and by ticks (Lyme disease,tick-borne encephalitis), may also be affected byclimate change. Some of the key health impacts thatmight arise due to climate change are listed inTable 3.11.

Projections of the extent and direction of potentialimpacts of climate variability and change on healthare extremely difficult to make with confidencebecause of the many confounding and poorlyunderstood factors associated with potential healthoutcomes. These factors include the sensitivity ofhuman health to elements of weather and climate,differing vulnerability of various demographic andgeographic segments of the population, the movementof disease vectors, and how effectively prospectiveproblems can be dealt with. In addition to uncertaintiesabout health outcomes, it is very difficult to anticipatewhat future adaptive measures (for example, vaccinesand the improved use of weather forecasting to furtherreduce exposure to severe conditions) might be takento reduce the risks of adverse health outcomes.Therefore, in this scenario, carrying out improvementsin environmental practices, preparing disastermanagement plans and improving the public healthinfrastructure in India, including disease surveillanceand emergency response capabilities, will go a longway in coping with the impacts of climate change onhuman health.

Coastal areas and livelihoods at risk.

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malaria. The principal malaria vectors are mosquitoesof the genus Anopheles. These include A. culicifacies(a rural vector), in most parts, A. stephensi (an urbanvector) and A. fluviatilis, A. minimus, A. dirus and A.sundaicus in other parts of India.

Amongst these states, Orissa has the highest AnnualParasite Index (API) which is greater than 10,followed by Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh (APIbetween 6-10). The occurrence is high in Jharkhand,which is mainly inhabited by a tribal population(Figure 3.34). Here, the incidence increased from35,000 to more than 40,000 between 1995 and 2000.

In the early 1950s, malaria was not only the cause ofmorbidity and mortality, but also one of the majorconstraints in ongoing developmental efforts. TheNational Malaria Control Programme was spectacularsuccessful initially in bringing down the incidence ofmalaria from 75 million cases with 0.8 million deaths,to 0.1 million cases with few deaths by 1965, eventhough there was no well-established health careinfrastructure in the rural areas. Subsequently,however, there was a resurgence of malaria. In 1976,over 6.7 million cases were reported (Figure 3.35).From 1977, the National Malaria EradicationProgramme (NMEP) began implementing a modifiedplan of operation for the control of malaria. Despitethese efforts, the number of reported cases of malariahas remained around two million in the 1990s.

Malaria is one of the important climate-change relateddiseases that has been extensively studied since theearly 1960s in India. Records of incidences andmortality due to the same are inadequate. Malaria waschosen for an in-depth study to develop therelationship between climate parameters and diseaseincidence, and for studying its future spread in theclimate change context.

The Present Scenario of MalariaMalaria is caused by a species of parasites belongingto the genus Plasmodium. There are four species ofthe malaria parasite namely, Plasmodium vivax (or P.vivax), which is extensively spread geographically,and is present in many temperature zones, as well asthe tropics and sub tropics, P. falciparum is the mostcommon species in tropical areas and the mostdangerous clinically, P. ovale resembles vivax andreplaces it in West Africa and P. malariae is muchless apparent, with low parasitaemia and is foundmainly in tropical Africa.

Malaria is endemic in all parts of India, except atelevations above 1,800 metres and in some coastalareas. The principal malaria-prone areas are Orissa,Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and the north-easternparts of the country. Periodic epidemics of malariaoccur every five to seven years. According to theWorld Bank, in 1998 about 577,000 Disability-Adjusted Life Years (DALYs) were lost due to

Table 3.11: Known effects of weather/climate and potential health vulnerabilities due to climate change.

Health Concerns Vulnerabilities due to climate change

Temperature-related morbidity Heat- and cold-related illnesses.Cardiovascular illnesses.

Vector-borne diseases Changed patterns of diseases.Malaria, filaria, kala-azar, Japanese encephalitis, and dengue caused bybacteria, viruses and other pathogens carried by mosquitoes, ticks, and othervectors.

Health effects of extreme Diarrhea, cholera and poisoning caused by biological and chemicalweather contaminants in the water (even today about 70% of the epidemic emergencies

in India are water-borne).Damaged public health infrastructure due to cyclones/floods.Injuries and illnesses.Social and mental health stress due to disasters and displacement.

Health effects due to Malnutrition and hunger, especially in children.insecurity in food production

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Figure 3.35: The malaria situation in India between1976 and 2001.Source: Ministry of Health and Family Welfare, 2003.

explained by the improved reportingof the health workers of NMEP (nowknown as National Anti-MalariaProgramme or NAMP).

Factors influencingmalariaClimate Parameters: For mostvectors of malaria, the temperaturerange 20°C-30°C is optimal fordevelopment and transmission.Relative humidity higher than 55 percent is optimal for vector longevity,enabling the successful completionof sporogony. Malaria transmissionrequires a minimum averagetemperature higher than 15°C for P.vivax and 19°C for P. falciparum, andthis temperature should sustain overa period of time for the completionof sporogony. For example, whenaverage temperature, humidity,precipitation and incidences have

been plotted for Gujarat (Figure 3.36), the maximumincidences are seen to occur in the months of June,

July and August when relativehumidity is highest i.e., greater than60 per cent and less than 80 per cent,at temperatures ranging between25°C to 30°C. This window shiftsfrom state to state as we go fromsouth to north, depending on thearrival of the monsoon. Hence, torepresent this diversity, climatedeterminants are further classifiedinto Class I, II and III cases, whichare needed for the growth andeffective transmission of malariavectors (Table 3.12).

Figure 3.34: Distribution of malaria in India in 2001.Source: National Malaria Eradication Programme, 2002.

The increase in malaria incidences are attributed tothe resistance of mosquitoes to pesticides, and theresistance of parasites to anti-malarial drugs, thus,limiting the effectiveness of malaria control attemptsthrough the NMEP. The sudden jump in the numberof deaths to 1100 in 1993 corresponding to the samenumber of incidences in the previous years may be

Type Temperature Humidity No. ofrange (°C) (%) days to

develop

Class I 15–20 >60% & <80% 20+5Class II 20–25 >60% & <80% 15+5Class III 25–30 >60% & <80% 8+5

Table 3.12: Climate determinants for P. vivaxdevelopment and transmission.

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relative humidity greater than 60per cent, it is observed thattemperature has more influenceover malaria transmission thandoes precipitation (Figure 3.38).Since the correlations are notstrong (i.e. greater than 0.95), othernon-climate parameters such associo-economic conditions alsoinfluence vector generation andmalaria transmission. Further in-depth data analysis for other statesis required at the district level to

conclusively establish the dominance of temperaturewith respect to precipitation on incidence for a givenhumidity condition. Other than temperature,precipitation and humidity controlling malaria at thelocal level, the link with global climate has also beenobserved in generating malaria in some years in India.(Box 3.9).

Urban settlements: Increasing urban populationcreates a large number of peri-urban areas on the outerlimits of cities, which now account for 25-40 per centof the Indian population. These areas are unplannedand poor people live here in unsanitary conditions. Asuitable environment is thuscreated for epidemics tobe caused by increases in A. culicifacies (whichbreeds in clean water on the ground due to rain) andA. stephensi (which breeds in wells and stored water).A. stephensi has extended its distribution in India overthe past four decades by entering more towns andperi-urban areas. This spread in A. stephensi is relatedto the spread of piped water systems throughout the

Figure 3.36: Dependence of malaria incidence onclimate determinants.

Figure 3.38: Relative importance of temperature and humidity inmalaria incidence.

These classifications are based on extensive climatedata analysis at a daily level.

A analysis of temperature versus incidences for eachstate, for the days when humidity was less than 60

per cent and between 60 per centto 80 per cent indicated that ClassI conditions prevail in the northernregions of India and Class II andClass III conditions prevail in thesouthern states. For example, inGujarat, the temperature windowcorresponded to 26°C -32°C(Figure 3.37), with peak incidenceat 27°C, which correspond to ClassIII conditions. However, as regardsthe relative influence oftemperature and precipitation for

Figure 3.37: Variation of malaria incidences withtemperature for relative humidity greater than andless than 60%.

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country. Peri-urban malaria is a new malariaphenomenon, because migrants often have chronicmalaria and the poor environmental conditions in theirtemporary settlements foster mosquito breeding andmalaria transmission.

Poverty : Malaria is declining in states of India thathave performed well in economic terms over the lastdecade and has increased where the performance isbelow average. The ever-increasing population,widespread poverty and illiteracy, malnutrition andanaemia and the low socio-economic status createsan immense pressure on the environment, andprovision of safe drinking water and basic sanitationfor millions. Poverty is multidimensional. It deprivesthe poor from access to the basic health benefits.

Irrigation: Irrigated area has increased in India from26.8 Mha in 1950 to more than 90 Mha in 1995. It wasintroduced in some areas for increasing agriculturalproductivity by building a large number of dams andcanals. The seepage from canals and a rise in the watertables create a source of still water for malaria breeding.Examples of such regions can be found in the Thar

desert, where mismanagement of the widespreaddevelopmental activities of canal-based irrigation haveled to malaria becoming endemic. No malariaincidences were recorded here earlier. In Uttar Pradesh.A. culicifacies which is resistant to DDT and HCHpesticides took over from A. fluviatilis, when irrigationwas implemented in the state. Also, the Sardar Sarovardam, an irrigation project on the Narmada river, thoughnot fully implemented yet, has already lead to theinvasion of A. culicifacies and A. fluviatilis, extendingthe malaria season, changing the area into an endemicmalaria region and causing a 10-15 fold increase inmalaria.

Agricultural practices: Agricultural practices, suchas rice farming, create large areas of stagnant waterthat are suitable breeding grounds for malaria vectors.Rice fields in India provide breeding habitats for 20Anopheles species. However, there are differingopinions about whether increases in area under ricecultivation correlate with increases in malaria.

Land-use change: Forests, where a majority of thetribal population resides, are a reservoir of high levelsof malaria in India. Currently, malaria in the forests

An increased risk of malaria and excessive rainfall can be expected in the years following the onset of La Ninaand the opposite during El Niño events. Most of the El Niño/La Nina years in India have resulted in below orabove normal incidences of malaria, respectively. Although there is a general tendency for the malaria incidencesto be below or above normal during drought/flood monsoon seasonal rainfall years, the separation is not asgood as that observed in the case of El Niño/La Nina events.

Malaria incidences during 1961–1995.

Box 3.9: The Influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events

Drought/flood years

El Niño Incidence La Nina Incidence Excess Incidence Deficit Incidenceyears Years years years

1965 –5327 1964 8740 1970 –3102 1965 –53271969 10503 1966 13455 1975 252329 1966 134551972 –6506 1970 –3102 1983 49907 1968 307301976 24462 1973 122977 1988 66833 1972 –65061982 –38534 1975 252329 1994 137745 1974 2117681987 –19702 1978 87133 1979 98561991 166370 1983 49907 1982 –385341992 –42242 1988 66833 1985 –110449

1986 932711987 –19702

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accounts for 30 per cent of all malaria in the countryand it is stable with high transmission rates. Mostincidences in these areas are caused by P.falciparum, which is increasingly becoming moreresistant to chloroquin and, in certain locations,to other anti-malarial drugs. Deforestation, mainlycarried out for development projects and due toeconomic pressures, allows new vectors to invadethe forest fringes, producing epidemics, especiallyin the non-tribal non-immune people who move tothese areas for jobs. Some forest areas in India alsoexperience moderate levels of chloroquin resistantP. falciparum.

Malaria scenario under climatechangePresently, the transmission window (based onminimum required conditions for ensuing malariatransmission) is open for 12 months in eight states(Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Kerala,Maharashtra, Orissa, Tamil Nadu and West Bengal),nine to 11 months in the north-eastern states (Gujarat,Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, UttarPradesh and Uttaranchal). The states of HimachalPradesh and Jammu and Kashmir have transmissionwindows open for five to seven months, respectively.When the temperature and relative humidity are

considered together for determining the transmissionwindow, it is observed that for less than 60 per centrelative humidity, the transmission window is reducedby one to five months. For example, in MadhyaPradesh, the transmission window is open only forfour months if both temperature and relative humidityare considered, while it is open for eight months ifonly temperature is considered. Therefore, it appearsthat transmission may take place at less than 60 percent relative humidity.

Considering a 3.8°C increase in temperature and aseven per cent increase in relative humidity by the2050s (with reference to the present), nine states ofIndia may have transmission windows open for all12 months. The transmission windows in the statesof Jammu and Kashmir and Rajasthan may increaseby three to five months as compared to the base year.States like Orissa and some southern states, wherethe mean temperature is more than 32°C

in four to

five months, a further increase in temperature is likelyto cut the transmission window by two to three months(Figure 3.39). Since there exists climate as well asgeographical diversity within a state, district-wiseprojections are desirable.

The above approach is a preliminary attempt to project

Figure 3.39: Transmission window of malaria in different states of India: (a) for base case (year 2000); and(b) under projected climate change scenario (2050s).

(a) (b)

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climate change impacts. An integrated approach isrequired to evaluate the impacts of climate change onmalaria in India, that will include not only the futureclimate and land-use pattern parameters but alsowould integrate the projected socio-economics whichneed to include access to medical intervention in theregion/state/district. This is further corroborated bythe fact that in the northern Indian states, the wintermonths are usually not suitable for transmission ofmalaria but some cases do occur through all themonths. It may be due to relapsed cases, which is acommon phenomenon in P. vivax parasite. Therefore,the projections of malaria in 2080 based on presentprojections of temperature and relative humidity, maynot be accurate.

Adaptation StrategiesThe Government of India since the late 1940s hasbeen implementing various programmes to controlmalaria in the country. Initially, as a result of theseprogrammes, the disease subsided in the 1960s, butsince the late 1970s it has become resistant to theinterventions. These measures will also be relevantas potential adaptation strategies in the climate changeregime. Indeed, improved malaria drugs, potentialimmunization and enhanced economic welfare of thepeople may reduce the incidence of malaria.

Existing Government policiesIndia started using the pesticide DDT to controlmalaria beginning in 1946 (see Box 3.10). In 1953,when 70 million cases and 0.8 million deaths occurreddue to malaria (NMEP, 1996), the National MalariaControl Programme was started. This programme wasrenamed the National Malaria Eradication Program(NMEP) in 1958 due to the success of DDT and thecommitment to malaria eradication in India at thattime. It was believed that it could eradicate malariain seven to nine years, but the disease began to re-emerge in 1965. After 1965, malaria rates in Indiarose gradually and consistently, with a peak of 6.47million cases in 1976 (NMEP, 1996). This resurgenceof malaria caused India to begin an attempt to controlrather than eradicate malaria in 1977 with a ModifiedPlan of Operation (MPO), which also comprised theP. falciparum Containment Programme (Pf CP). ThePf CP aimed to contain the spread of falciparummalaria, which is the most commonly resistant anddeadly strain of malaria. During MPO, chloroquin

distribution was extended through Fever TreatmentDeport and Drug Distribution Centres, in addition toother means through which malaria drugs had alreadybeen distributed. MPO also only used residualinsecticides in areas with an API index greater thantwo. This method still relied mainly on sprayingpesticides and distributing anti-malarial drugs,although there was also an attempt to get morelocal officials involved in anti-malarial activitiesand an increase in research. By 1985, it seemed asthough the NMEP would succeed in controllingmalaria, because there were only two million casesof malaria and the incidence rate had stabilized.India has, however, experienced more epidemicsand deaths from malaria in the 1990s, along withthe creation of a new malaria phenomenon. In 1994,there were large-scale epidemics of malariathroughout the country, and since then malariamortality has increased.

According to the Planning Commission, despiteextensive malaria eradication efforts, the number ofreported cases of malaria has remained around twomillion in the 1990s. Financial assistance also has beenreceived from the World Bank for the EnhancedMalaria Control Programme (EMCP) to cover a 100predominantly P. falciparum malaria endemic tribal-dominated districts in Andhra Pradesh, Bihar,

Box 3.10: Malaria control in India

Year Action

1946 India started using DDT1953 NMCP is started1958 NMCP becomes the NMEP1959 The first-time vector resistance is detected

in India (in Gujarat)1965 Malaria begins to re-emerge1976 The peak of malaria cases in the re-

emergence period1977 India starts MPO and Pf

CP1985 Only 2 million annual cases of malaria in

India1991 The peak of P. falciparum cases1994 Large-scale epidemics, particularly in the

Eastern and Western parts of India1997 NMEP to NMAP (focus shifts from

malaria eradication to malaria control)

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specific anticipated changes in the existing diseaseconditions, including the expected improvement inthe socio-economic conditions of the people in thefuture. Thus, in addition to disease specific measures,the following actions might be taken to developadaptation strategies for the future:

� Improved surveillance and monitoring systems.� Develop vector specific regional maps.� Technological engineering strategies.� Improved infrastructure to avoid artificial

breeding.� Medical interventions.� Develop predictive models linking climate and

incidence.� Develop integrated environmental management

plans.� Public education.

A combination of these options can be used in additionto the ongoing efforts of the government to controlmalaria. The appropriateness of these measures will ofcourse be decided by the local experts according to thehealth care needs of the public in the region and someof them may be temporary in their effectiveness.

Future Research NeedsThe research results presented here, vis-a-vis therelationship between malaria and its determinants,and the likely spread of malaria to other regionsare not conclusive by themselves. Since India hasa diverse climate and socio-economic pockets,conditions conducive to malarial vector growth andits transmission vary at small spatial scales.Therefore, more research is required for a betterassessment of malaria transmission under theadditional climate change scenario. Further researchneeds to include:

� A study of the effect of different combinations oftemperature and relative humidity on thedevelopment of malaria vectors infected with P.vivax and P. falciparum, the common parasites ofmalaria.

� A study of the impact of rainfall on creation ofbreeding habitats of malaria vectors/or flushing offthe breeding habitats, in different malariaparadigms.

� District-wise prospective studies in different eco-

Box 3.11: Goals of the Tenth Plan

Parameter To achieve

Annual BloodExamination Rate Over 10%(ABER)API 1.3 or lessMoribidity and Reduce by 25%Mortality by 2007 and 50% by 2010

Source: Tenth Five year plan, Planning Commission, Governmentof India, 2002.

Jharkhand, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh,Maharashtra, Orissa and Rajasthan and 19 other cities.The project also has the flexibility to divert resourcesto any area in case of a malaria outbreak. In otherareas, the NMAP continues to be implemented as acentrally sponsored scheme on a 50:50 cost-sharingbasis between the centre and states in urban and ruralareas. The central government provides drugs,insecticides and larvicides and also technicalassistance/guidance as and when the stategovernments require. The state governments meet theoperational cost, including salaries. In view of thehigh incidence of malaria (particularly of falciparummalaria) and high mortality, a 100% central assistanceunder the NAMP is being provided to the north-eastern states since 1994.

Although there has been an enhanced amountallocated for malaria eradication in the Ninth Plan,the decline in cases in this period was notcommensurate with the substantial increase infunding. The rising proportion of P. falciparummalaria, increased vector resistance to insecticides andthe growing parasite resistance to chloroquin, willrender malaria containment and control more difficultin the Tenth Plan period. Since the Ninth Plan goalfor reduction in API and morbidity has not beenachieved, the Tenth Plan aims to achieve a morbidityand mortality rate reduction by 25 per cent in 2007and 50 per cent in 2010 (Box 3.11).

Adaptation options in the climatechange regimeIt is essential that adaptation policies are designed insuch a way that they take into account the uncertaintiesassociated with the impacts of climate change, the

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epidemiological types of epidemic prone areas toevaluate the role of temperature, rainfall and RHon mosquito vectors and malaria so as to developan early warning system for proactive adaptationmeasures.

� For determining the transmission windows moredefinitively in the climate change scenario, anintegrated assessment approach is required. Thiswill link the outputs of the regional climate changemodels with the anticipated socio-economic trends,soil moisture, surface water run-off, vegetationcover, and the biogenic characteristics of malaria.

Key FindingsThe transmission windows of opportunity conduciveto malarial vector growth and transmission are uniqueto India and are defined in terms of climate parametersas Class I, Class II and Class III which correspond todifferent temperature ranges and durations when thehumidity persists between 60 per cent to 80 per cent.This differs from state to state as the topography andland use have high variability. Temperature plays agreater role with respect to precipitation in thetransmission of malaria.

Malaria has not yet penetrated elevations above 1,800metres and some coastal areas. However, some ofthese areas may be penetrated by malaria in futuredue to climate change. It is projected that during the2080s, 10 per cent more states may offer climaticopportunities for malaria vector breeding throughoutthe year with respect to the year 2000. Theseopportunities are projected to increase by three to fivemonths in Jammu and Kashmir, and westernRajasthan, while they may reduce by two to threemonths in the southern states as temperatures increase.

The disease potential, i.e., the risk of contractingmalaria by a population is the result of a combinationof parameters such as climate change, public andprivate health capabilities, and man-made conditionsconducive to malaria, such as unhygienicsurroundings with accumulated water pools.Development associated with improved access tohealth systems, housing conditions, betterinfrastructure for waste disposal, better sanitarysystems and new technological interventions vis-a-vis medication for malaria will play a key role inchecking the spread of malaria in the future.

CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ONENERGY AND INFRASTRUCTURE

Infrastructure is an engine for economic development.It may be broadly defined as a system of linkagesthat facilitate and enable the flow of goods andservices. These linkages include road, rail andairways; river systems, electric power systems, andall the different types of communication and servicelines. It also includes the built and engineered entities,the factories, buildings, dams, and all that comprisethe cities and towns. Huge investments are beingcommitted in new infrastructure projects indeveloping countries. Development of infrastructureenhances the scope of utilizing underemployedresources, besides creating new investmentopportunities. Infrastructures are long-life assets andare designed to withstand normal variability in climateregime. However, climate change can affect bothaverage conditions and the probability of extremeevents, temperatures, precipitation patterns, wateravailability, flooding and water logging, vegetationgrowth, land slides and land erosion in the mediumand long run which may have serious impacts for theinfrastructure. Infrastructure displays some specialcharacteristics that have a strong bearing for theadaptation policies for protecting it against the likelyimpacts.

Infrastructure – SpecialCharacteristicsThe word ‘infra’ means below and ‘infrastructure’means the support services below the real economic

Infrastructure is at risk due to climate change.

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structure. Though the concept of infrastructure hasbeen extensively used in the literature of economicdevelopment, it has not been explicitly defined in aprecise and generally accepted manner. A number ofinterchangeable terms such as social overhead,economic overhead and basic economic facility havebeen used to denote services, which are generallyidentified with infrastructure.

Some of the basic characteristics of infrastructurefacilities can thus be defined as:

� Essential but not directly productive: Infrastructurefacilities are universally required for carrying outany kind of production, yet they themselves donot produce goods for final use. They providesupport to the directly productive activities andare, thus, in the nature of overhead costs.

� Pre-requisites of development: Infrastructurefacilities are normally created ahead of demand.Due to their universal requirement they are oftenconsidered as necessary pre-requisites ofdevelopment. The expansion of productionactivities is unlikely to take place, beyond a level,without these services.

� Non-importable: More often than not, the technicalnature of these facilities is such that necessitatestheir creation and supply at the very place of theiruse. Electricity can be cited as an exception, whichcan be transported but requires specializedinfrastructure in place.

� Lumpiness: Infrastructure cannot be built in bitsand pieces and has to be provided in a minimumsize. This feature emanates from what can bedescribed as technical indivisibility. In general, aminimum quantum of investment, which is oftenlarge, is required for the creation of infrastructure.A corollary of indivisibility and lumpy investmentis that the per unit cost of services generated byinfrastructure declines over a very large range ofproduction.

� External Economies: Another distinguishingfeature of infrastructure is that it generates externaleconomies, i.e., ‘services rendered free’. Thebenefits from infrastructure are sometimes sowidespread that it is difficult to identify each andevery beneficiary. Hence, it is said that investmentin infrastructure is profitable for society as a whole.

� Provision by state: Due to very high investment

involved and inability to generate attractive returnto the investor, infrastructure facilities generallyrequire investment by the government. Historicallythe world over, most of the services have beendeveloped with the initiative of the states.

In addition to the above characteristics, infrastructureprojects have a long gestation period and acomparatively long life span. Any asset likeinfrastructure, that has a long life, has a tub-shapedcost curve for repair and maintenance. In the initialstabilization period, it may require frequentmaintenance. The maintenance requirement decreasesonce the system has stabilized (Figure 3.40). Itincreases again due to wear and tear, as the assetreaches the end of its useful life. Attention to climatechange impacts becomes important, since these maybe more pronounced in the later part of the 21stcentury (IPCC, 2001b). These two effects coupledtogether, would increase the economic impact oninfrastructures. Thus, developing countries need totake the investment decisions for infrastructuredevelopment very carefully, because these decisionsresult in long-term irreversible commitment ofresources.

Infrastructure development in IndiaEconomic growth in India demands development ofits infrastructure. In the light of the continued needfor development of infrastructure in India, successivefive-year plans have devoted a large and increasingvolume of outlays for the development of economic,social and institutional infrastructure. The followingbroad generalization can be made about the trend of

Figure 3.40: Infrastructure maintenance and impactcosts.

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to meet the projected growth in demand forinfrastructure (India Infrastructure Report, 1996).

Some recent initiatives of large-scale infrastructuredevelopment in India include the development of thenational highways network. Such infrastructureprojects require huge investments. The nationalhighways development project for four/ six-laning ofaround 13,146 km of road network, with another 1,000km of port and other connectivity, is expected to costRs 540 billion (US$ 11.8 billion). More than 2,100km has already been completed over the last threeyears and another 5,000 km are under various stagesof completion. More than US$ 3.5 billion have beenspent and/or committed. The river linking project isestimated to require a Rs. 5,560 billion (US$ 122billion) investment over next the 10 years. This projecthas been envisaged in the current climatic regime andassumes the availability of water in the perennialHimalayan rivers. If the climatic changes predictedby international scientific assessment (IPCC, 2001b)were to be realized over the present century, themonsoon and rainfall patterns would alter and theglaciers would recede, thus changing the annual waterflow patterns in the sub-continental rivers. This wouldalter the project’s assumptions and the costs andbenefits assessment.

Huge investments in infrastructure, having a long lifespan, are presently being planned without anyconscious analysis of climate change-related impactson them. It is indisputable that long-term climatechanges are likely to have impacts on infrastructure.All over the world, extreme weather events are a majorcause of damage to infrastructure. In developingcountries, governments have to bear the losses arisingfrom this damage to infrastructure, since currently 95per cent of infrastructure is government-owned andit bears the responsibility for repair and maintenance.Even for privatized infrastructure, the force majeureprovisions largely allocate financial responsibility forcatastrophe risk to governments. An inevitable resultof the increased damages to infrastructure fromclimate change will be a dramatic increase in resourcesneeded to restore infrastructure. A developingeconomy like India has to take these issues intoconsideration while formulating appropriate policies.

investment in infrastructure items over the planningperiod.

The major share of plan outlay has gone for thedevelopment of a few infrastructure items that reflectsthe high priority given to some sectors. In the firsttwo five-year plans, nearly two-thirds of the total planoutlays were devoted to social and economicinfrastructure. In the later plans, this declined to aboutthree-fifths of the outlay. Economic infrastructure(transport, power, irrigation and communication) hasclaimed a lion’s share—around 45 per cent of the planoutlays. Within the economic infrastructure, powerand transport have received the largest share. Socialinfrastructure has received relatively less attention,claiming less than one-sixth of the plan outlays. Thepattern of plan outlays on infrastructure in the 1950sis distinctly different from that of the later plans.However, there is stability in the pattern of planoutlays, though certain marginal shifts have occurredfrom one plan to the other.

The Ninth Plan Working Group on Housing hadestimated the investment requirement for housing inurban areas at Rs 526 billion (US$ 11.5 billion). TheIndia Infrastructure Report estimates the annualinvestment need for urban water supply, sanitationand roads at about Rs 280 billion (US$ 6.15 billion)for the next 10 years. The Central Public HealthEngineering has estimated the requirement of fundsfor a 100 per cent coverage of the urban populationunder safe water supply and sanitation services bythe year 2021 at Rs 1,729 billion (US$ 37.9 billion).Estimates by Rail India Technical and EconomicServices (RITES) indicate that the amount requiredfor urban transport infrastructure investment in citieswith population 100,000 or more during the next 20years, would be of the order of Rs. 2,070 billion (US$45.4 billion).

Obviously, these massive investments cannot belocated from within the budgetary resources ofcentral, state and local governments. Private sectorparticipation and access to international finances are,therefore, required for infrastructure developmentprojects. As a result, investment opportunities arearising in the infrastructure sector, especially in roads,ports, energy, telecommunications and urban services.India may require Rs 9,800 billion during 2001-2006

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Methods and modelsThe present assessment of climate change impactson infrastructure has been analyzed by developingan impact matrix. The matrix approach facilitates theidentification of indicators which may have impactsfor a particular case study. A matrix approach withindicator analysis is also preferable, because indicesmake it possible to compare two or more complex,multifaceted systems at one time by analyzing theinteractions among the systems and converting theinformation related to varied impacts in a singleobservable outcome. While this process ofreductionism enhances the understanding about thephenomenon, it works contrary to both the complexbehaviour of the system and potentially disparatenature of impacts. However, modelling requires thissimplification of complex realities and the matrixapproach provides the required simplificationmechanism.

The stages involved in the design of the matrixinclude:

� Defining existing conditions/components.� Projecting and estimating likely future changes.� Taking each component one by one and applying

change (as a ‘thought experiment’).� Recording the extent of interactions.� Identifying major problem areas.

Traditionally, the impact matrix approach used forenvironmental assessment carries out an analysis ofthe impacts of economic activities on the environment.A conventional impact matrix explores a one-wayrelationship of the effect of human activities on the

environment. The reverse link is most often ignored.For the present assessment, a reversed matrix has beendeveloped, which links the impacts of change inenvironmental variables to the project activities. Aschematic diagram of the matrix is given in Figure 3.41.

The first quadrant in the above matrix indicates theconventional impact matrix, where the impact ofproject components on the environment is analyzed.The first and second quadrant show theinterrelationships of the environmental variables andproject components. The fourth quadrant shows theimpacts of changes in the environmental variables onthe project components.

Impact on Transport sectorClimate change impact on transportationinfrastructure and the operation of transportationsystems may be divided into three categories: theeffects of climate on operations; the effects of sea-level rise on coastal facilities; and the effects of climateon infrastructure.

A future climate with an increased number of rainydays, rainstorms and higher rainfall intensity mayincrease vehicular accidents and injuries in accidents,and result in longer travel time and increased delays.The effect of climate change on transport is not veryclear. However, transportation by air is known to besensitive to adverse weather conditions; major system-wide effects sometimes follow from flightcancellations, rerouting, or rescheduling. There is ahigh level of confidence that sea-level rise willincrease the cost of protecting infrastructure locatedin the coastal regions.

Figure 3.41: Reverse impact matrix.

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Transportation operations are sensitive to localweather conditions. Fog, rain and snow slow downtransport movements and increase risks of accidents.In addition, maintenance costs and durability ofinfrastructure are also dependent on weather events.Changes in frequency and intensity of extreme eventssuch as hurricanes, floods, high-speed winds andcloudbursts may have significant impacts on the safetyand reliability of transportation. All these impacts arelocation-specific and the infrastructure located indifferent regions will experience different intensityof impacts.

In the following section, a case study of climatechange impacts for the Konkan Railway has beenpresented. This work has been carried out applyingthe proposed reversed impact matrix. An analysis

of the currents conditions, lessons from the pastclimate variability, potential climate changeimpacts, knowledge and information gaps, and thepoint of view of the stakeholders have also beenpresented.

Impacts on Konkan RailwayKonkan is a coastal strip of land bounded by theSahyadri hills to the east and the Arabian Sea to thewest in the states of Karnataka, Goa andMaharashtra. It is a region with rich mineralresources, dense forest cover, and a landscapefringed with paddy, coconut and mango trees. Thisrailway project was conceived with the objectiveof bridging the ‘Konkan gap’ and reducing thedistance and travel time between Mumbai, and coastalKarnataka and Kerala (Figure 3.42).

Konkan Railway: The Layout and Vulnerable Spots

Figure 3.42: Konkan Railway: Layout and vulnerable spots.

The 760 km long Konkan Railway on the western coastal ghats of India is an engineering marvel with 179 main and 1,819 minor bridges, 92tunnels (covering 12% of the total route) and over 1,000 cuttings (224 deeper than 12 metres). The longest tunnel is 6.5 Km long and thelongest bridge is over 2 km. The pillars of the tallest viaduct bridge are more than 64 metres high, taller than Qutab Minar.

Presently 20% of repair and maintenance expenses on tracks, tunnels and bridges are due to climatic reasons.

A recent accident on 21st June 2003 night (see on the map), resulting in over 50 deaths, was caused by landslide at a deep cutting due to

incessant heavy rains, presumably higher than the system’s adaptive capacity. Consequent to the accident, maximum permissible speed oftrains has been reduced from 120 Km/h to 75 Km/h.

200 mm rainfall within 24 hours increases vulnerability (Nagrajan et al., 2000) (see present vulnerable regions around the northern corridorsas on the map). Future rainfall pattern shows that such events are likely to occur more frequently and with higher intensity (chapter 3 of thisbook).

Adaptation measures should also consider vulnerable spot identification based on future climate change projections.

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Table 3.13: Climate Change Impacts on Konkan Railway.

ClimaticParameter

TemperatureIncrease

RainfallIncrease

Sea-levelChange

ExtremeEvents

ImpactParameter

High evaporationrateSurface and groundwater lossNeed for air-conditioningGround and surfacewater-level change

Improved wateravailability in theregionHumidity increase

Land erosion

Flooding

Water loggingCyclone and high-velocity winds andstormsCloudbursts

Impact on KRC

Buildings get weakened. Frequentrepair and maintenanceAgricultural freight traffic

Affects efficiency, carrying capacityand composition.Buildings affected, structuraldamages may take place. Increasedmaintenance and other related costsChanges in agricultural freighttraffic

Passenger traffic affected, increasedmaintenance cost

Increased maintenance,

Damage to infrastructure,reconstruction and relocationRisk of delays increaseDisruption of services, repair andreconstruction costs

Extensive damage to infrastructure,high cost of repair andreconstruction

Intervening Parameter

Stability and strength of thebuilding materialsCrop productivity in theregion may be affectedPassenger traffic may shiftto air-conditioned classFlooding and water logging,erosion reduces the qualityof land coverAgricultural production

Uncomfortable climaticconditions, vegetationgrowth along the trackTracks tunnels and bridgesmay be affectedLand instability and landslides

Damage to buildings,communication lines, etc

Land erosion, floods, andlandslides

The Konkan Railway is a broad gauge (1,676 mm)single line, between Roha (about 150 km south ofMumbai) and Thokur (22 km north of Mangalore), adistance of 760 km, built at a cost of about Rs 34billion (US$ 745 million). It has 59 stations, 179 majorbridges (total linear waterway 20.50 km) and 1,819minor bridges (total linear waterway 5.73 km). Thisis for the first time that Indian Railways haveconstructed tunnels longer than 2.2 km and there arenine such tunnels in the project (KRCL, 1999). The

4 Small hillocks are cut through to construct passage for the railway track duly maintaining reasonable slope for the track. These

passages are called cuttings. Cuttings are like top-open tunnels, with spread-out slopes on either side. Some cuttings are deeper than12 to 15 metres. Such deep cuttings pose higher safety hazards due to higher possibilities of water logging and landslides. Cuttings cavein mostly due to excessive rains. Unstable cutting-slope and geological characteristics of the soil determine its sensitivity to rains.Adaptation measures include regular monitoring during the rainy season, temporary speed restrictions on the trains passing throughthese cuttings, nylon-net erection and retaining wall construction to trap sliding boulders, removing precariously placed boulders inanticipation, appropriate drainage construction and maintenance, further easing out and consolidation of the cutting-slopes, paving andsowing of grass on the cutting-slopes.

Konkan Railway Corporation Limited (KRCL) trackpasses through more than 1,000 cuttings4 , with 224being deeper than 12 metres. All these deep cuttingshave been declared as vulnerable spots by KRCL afterthe June 2003 accident.

Impact analysisThe Western Ghats, through which the KonkanRailway passes, experience moderate to heavy rainfalland its marine ecosystems are sensitive to climate

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Table 3.14: Causal matrix for impact analysis forKonkan Railway

changes. Although many studies were carried out toanalyze the impacts of the Konkan Railway projecton the surrounding ecosystems and environment, noneof these have analyzed the environmental impacts onthe Konkan Railway. The present assessment exploresthe potential impacts of climate change on the KonkanRailway infrastructure by identifying the relationshipof the various climate change parameters with thelikely impacts on the Konkan Railway, through aseries of impact and intervening parameters(Table 3.13).

Cause-effect analysisThe cause-effect analysis was carried out through areverse causal matrix, where various identified indiceswere assessed for their capacity to force changes inthe other elements, through a qualitative approach.Table 3.14 shows the causal analysis for KonkanRailway for 10 identified indices. The table showsa two-way matrix, where ‘L’ denotes a weak link,‘M’ a moderate link and ‘H’ a strong link. Rowsshow the forcing variables and the columnsdependent variables. The strength of the causal linkwas determined in consultation with the officialsof Konkan Railway. A total of eight senior officialswere interviewed. A two-stage process ofinterviewing was adopted for this purpose. In thefirst stage, relevant causal variables were

identified, and in the second, the strength of thelink was determined. The analysis matrix presentedhere shows the perceptive importance assigned bythe people working in the field and therefore noquantification of the relative strengths of the linkageshas been attempted.

The analysis carried out with the help of the impactmatrix shows that low dependence and high-forcingfactors such as rainfall are the major climatic drivershaving impacts on Konkan Railway. This factor isinfluenced by elements external to the KonkanRailway and is beyond the control of the system. Other

factors such as temperature, sea-level rise and extreme events havecomplex feedback loops and resultin high forcing. Further researchmay be needed to improve theunderstanding of these linkages. Onthe contrary, factors such aslandslides have a high-forcingeffect, but are also highly influencedby other elements within and outsidethe system, such as precipitationpatterns, geological characteristicsof the soil, stabilization andprevention mechanisms in place.Factors, such as traffic volume,which have a high dependence onall other factors, are very importantfor Konkan Railway.

From the matrix it is clear that the most relevant factorfor measurement of potential impacts is rainfall, which

Konkan Railway

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has a strong negative influence, and preventivemaintenance, which is a strong positive influence.Rainfall is highly influenced by external factors andcannot be forced by the factors internal to the system,whereas preventive maintenance is internal to thesystem and can help in minimizing the extent ofimpacts.

After identifying the forcing variables, the next stepis to explore critical thresholds to determine whenthe risk of a climate change impact becomes‘dangerous’. These thresholds are case and climatechange scenario-specific. These indicate decisionpoints where additional preventive measures becomeimperative. For the Konkan Railway case, rainfall hasbeen identified as the main forcing variable. Basedon the studies carried out in the past, the rainfallthreshold for landslides in the Konkan region has beenidentified as more than 200 mm precipitation in 24hours. However, rainfall alone is not sufficient forcausing landslides, which can be influenced by manyother factors such as geology, soil structure, vegetationcover and slope.

Every year during the monsoon, train operations aredisrupted due to water logging and landslides. Thereare numerous instances of trains running late due topreventive speed restrictions and disruptions duringthe rainy season every year. An analysis of the pastdata indicates that on an average, the operations aresuspended for about a week during the monsoonsbecause of such problems along the track. One of themajor traffic suspensions was for 14 continuous daysbetween 11-25 July 2000, due to landslides at 36locations caused by more than 300 mm rainfall on asingle day. The expected losses were estimated to beabout Rs 100 million (US$ 2.2 million). There werea total of 140 reported incidences of landslides duringthe entire monsoon season in 2000.

Konkan Railway authorities annually identifyvulnerable locations where preventive maintenanceis carried out before the onset of monsoon, to dealwith any such calamity. Based on experiences overthe years, the number of identified vulnerable

locations has varied between 60 and 120 every year.In the year 2002-2003 more than 200 vulnerable spotshave been identified. Several preventive adaptationactivities

5 have been undertaken at these vulnerable

locations to minimize adverse impacts. The purposeis to reduce the number of such locations graduallyand stabilize the track over the years for trouble-freetrain operations.

Climate change Impacts on EnergyThe energy sector is highly dependent on temperatureconditions and this is probably, where climate changecould have very strong direct impacts. The regionaltemperature would change significantly, thus affectingthe future energy consumption behaviour. In theresidential and building sector, a major energy demandis expected to be for space cooling and heating. Air-conditioning and refrigeration load is closely relatedto the ambient air temperature and will thus have adirect relation to temperature increase. Temperatureincrease in the northern mountainous region, wherespace heating in winter is required, might result insome saving in heating energy. This will be more thancompensated by increased energy requirement forspace cooling in the plains, thus resulting in a netincrease.

Higher income levels will further increase demandsfor air-conditioning. There are many energy sourcesfor space heating, including coal, biomass andelectricity. However, the main source of energy forcooling is electricity. A higher demand for air-conditioning will thus result in an increased electricitydemand. Similar to the residential sector, thecommercial and industrial sector will also experiencean increased load for air-conditioning andrefrigeration due to temperature rise.

Many sectors affected by climate change will haveindirect impacts on the energy sector. A major sectorthat causes indirect impact on energy is agriculture.Agriculture is very sensitive to any type of climatechanges. Climate change in India will result intemperature rise and a changing precipitation pattern.The evaporation rate is also expected to rise because

5 These include regular monitoring during rainy season, temporary speed restrictions on the trains, nylon-net erection and retaining wall

construction to trap sliding boulders, removing precariously placed boulders on cutting-tops in anticipation, appropriate drainage constructionand maintenance, further easing out and consolidation of the cutting-slopes, paving and sowing of grass on the cutting-slopes.

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of the temperature increase. This may be counteredby increase in rainfall and humidity in some regions.All these put together will affect the water requirementfor agriculture which will be greater, resulting in ahigher demand of energy for irrigation. The residentialwater demand is also expected to increase, whichwould in turn affect the energy required for the watersupply system.

Additional electricity generation due to climatechange, over and above the electricity generation in2100, is estimated to be 64 TWh, which is 1.5 percent of the reference scenario generation for the sameyear. The domination of coal-based generationcontinues due to the reliance on domestic resourcesfor energy supply and a major share of this addedgeneration requirement is taken up by the coal-basedgeneration. The economic linkages with coal are alsovery strong due to the large infrastructure associatedwith the mining industry, coal transportation network,generation equipment manufacturers, etc., and coalremains competitive in the long run.

As renewable technologies including hydro, wind,cogeneration, other biomass technologies, solar andgeothermal, are expected to reach plateau by this time,fuel-mix changes in the energy sector would largelydepend on development of nuclear power and newsources of energy such as fuel cells, fusion etc. over aperiod of time.

Risk and InsuranceThe insurance sector has participated in covering therisks of the large-scale infrastructure projects againstfuture uncertainties. Climate change increases risksfor the insurance sector, but the effect on profitabilityis not likely to be severe, because insurance companiesare capable of shifting changed risks to the insured,provided that they are ‘properly and timely informed’on the consequences of climate change. For example,in the event of a catastrophic event, the insurancesector reacts to increased risk and large losses byrestricting coverage and raising premiums. It has beenshown by various authors that the increased climaticvariability necessitates higher insurance premiums toaccount for the higher probability of damages.

Despite the costs, there has been a great deal ofexcitement about the potential of insurance and other

forms of risk transfer for hedging the risks of extremeweather-related and other disasters facingdeveloping countries. Governments carry a largeand highly dependent portfolio of infrastructureassets, some of which are critical for restoringeconomic growth, and for the same reason, asfirms, they may wish to reduce the variance of theirdisaster losses by diversifying with insurance andother risk-transfer instruments.

Lacking more attractive financing alternatives, thegovernment benefits from risk transfer, since itreduces the variability of its disaster losses, but risktransfer requires resources that could otherwise beinvested in the economy. In terms of economic growth,there is thus an inherent trade-off: a reduction in fundsspent on current growth permits a government toprotect itself against extreme future losses.

ConclusionsThere is a need for building awareness about thepotential impacts among the concerned people, anddeveloping good quality databases. Systematic effortsare required to study the impact assessments ofdifferent climatic parameters. Studies about futureprojections of changing regional climate provideinsights for methodological developments, includingmodels for integrated assessment and GIS-basedcomputer algorithms for supporting policyassessments at regional levels.

The climate change impact analysis on energyinfrastructure indicates that a rise in averagetemperature increases the need for space cooling forbuildings and transport sectors. The variability inprecipitation can also impact the irrigation needs andconsequent demand for energy. These would increaseelectricity demand, and consequently result in the needfor higher power capacity. The demand for air-conditioned transport and their increased use mayresult in lower fuel efficiency, increasing petroleumproduct consumption. The increased energy demandwill result in higher emissions. The assessment forIndia suggests an increase of around one per centannually, which though not substantial, is stillsignificant for examining the reverse links andfeedback with climate change.

The infrastructure sector is a vital sector, where huge

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investments are being committed in developingcountries. The sector creates long-life and open-to-weather assets that will face increasing impactsfrom the changing climate. It would be prudentfor developing country policy-makers to payattention to protecting these assets, which mayotherwise cause significant welfare losses to future

generations. Myriad adaptation strategies areneeded. These would include the incorporation offuture climate extremes in the project designparameters in the immediate term; improvedoperational and maintenance practices in the nearterm; and improved climate predictions and creationof insurance markets in the long term.

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India’s agrarian economy, under favourable tropicalclimatic conditions of the Asian summer monsoonand with a majority of the population engaged in

agriculture, has necessitated a closer linkage withweather and climate since the Vedic period. Thisnecessitated a very early interest in weatherobservations and research. Ancient Indian literatureby Varahmihir, the ‘Brihat-Samhita’, is an exampleof ancient Indian weather research.

Modernized meteorological observations and researchin India was initiated more than 200 years ago, since1793, when the first Indian meteorologicalobservatory was set up at Madras (now Chennai). Aweather network of about 90 weather observatorieswas established when IMD was formally set up in1875. It was decided to create a separate agricultural-meteorology directorate in the IMD in 1932 to furtherinvigorate the observation network. Many data andresearch networks have been established over the lastcentury for climate-dependent sectors, such asagriculture, forestry, and hydrology, rendering amodern scientific background to atmospheric sciencein India. The inclusion of the latest data from satellitesand other modern observation platforms, such asAutomated Weather Stations (AWS), and ground-based remote-sensing techniques strengthenedIndia’s long-term strategy of building up a self-reliantclimate data bank.

India’s observational and research capabilities havebeen developed to capture its unique geography andspecific requirements, and also to fulfil internationalcommitments of data exchange for weatherforecasting and allied research activities.

RESEARCH

The Government of India attaches high priority tothe promotion of R&D in multidisciplinary aspects

of environmental protection, conservation anddevelopment including research in climate change.The MoEF is the nodal ministry for the subject ofclimate change in India. Several central governmentministries/departments promote, undertake andcoordinate climate and climate related researchactivities and programmes in India through variousdepartments, research laboratories, and universities(Figure 4.1). Research at autonomous institutions ofexcellence such as the Indian Institutes ofManagement (IIMs), Indian Institutes of Technology(IITs), and Indian Institute of Science (IISc); and non-governmental and private organizations providesynergy and complementary support. Indianresearchers have contributed significantly toassessment reports of the IPCC for over a decade.The ensuing sub sections provide some details ofclimate and climate-change research being carried outin various modes.

Institutional arrangementsThe MoEF, Ministry of Science and technology(MST), Ministry of Agriculture (MoA), Ministry ofWater Resources (MWR), Ministry of HumanResource Development (MHRD), Ministry of Non-conventional Energy (MNES), Ministry of Defence(MoD), Ministry of Health and Family welfare(MoHFW), and Indian Space Research Organization(ISRO) are the main ministries of the Government ofIndia which promote and undertake climate andclimate change-related research in the country. TheISRO is under the direct governance of the PrimeMinister and support all the above agencies withsatellite-based passive remote sensing.

The MoEF, MST, MHRD and MOA are operatedunder the umbrella of coordinate many premiernational research laboratories and universities. Themost prominent being the 40 laboratories of theCouncil of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR),

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Figure 4.1: Climate and climate change research institutions in India.

an autonomous body under the MST; and the vastnetwork of the Indian Council of Agricultural Research(ICAR) under the MOA. The CSIR is the nationalR&D organization which provides scientific andindustrial research for India’s economic growth andhuman welfare. It has a countrywide network of 40laboratories and 80 field centres. The ICAR networkincludes institutes, bureaus, national research centresand project directorates employing about 30,000personnel. 30 state agricultural universities employabout 26,000 scientists for teaching, research andextension education; of these over 6,000 scientists areemployed in the ICAR supported/ coordinatedprojects.

The Department of Science and Technology (DST)

under the MST coordinates advanced climatic andweather research and data collection over the Indianlandmass. There are three premier institutions underDST that are solely dedicated to atmospheric scienceviz. the IMD, the National Centre for Medium RangeWeather Forecast (NCMRWF) and the Indian Instituteof Tropical Meteorology (IITM).

The IMD possesses a vast weather observationalnetwork and is involved in regular data collectionbasis, data bank management, research and weatherforecasting for national policy needs. The NCMRWFconducts atmospheric and climatic research withparticular emphasis to develop indigenous,customized GCMs and RCMs for the Indiansubcontinent and to forecast the medium-range

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weather for socioeconomic sectors that are directlyaffected by climate, such as agriculture and tourismfor short-term policy-making. The NCMRWF is alsoengaged in agriculture-meteorological advisoryservices to farmers through in-house modelling andforecast (on a daily basis) for different Indian cropsystems. It runs an agro-advisory services networkwith ICAR, which provides daily weather forecaststo farmers. The IITM is involved in various kinds ofadvanced climate and weather research; includingclimatology, hydrometeorology, physical meteorologyand aerology, boundary layer, land surface processes,atmospheric electricity, climate-simulations, climateand global modelling/ simulations. Research inadvanced instrumentation and observationaltechniques is also being carried out at the IITM alongwith other theoretical studies.

In addition to these dedicated atmospheric researchinstitutes, the DST funds a parallel research networkunder the aegis of CSIR which has several researchinstitutions for various scientific disciplines dedicatedto applied scientific and industrial research.Atmospheric, environmental and oceanic research isone of its areas of focus and has been taken up by itsinstitutions like the National Physical Laboratory, theNational Environmental Engineering ResearchInstitute, the Centre for Mathematical Modelling andComputer Simulations (of National AeronauticalLaboratory), the National Institute of Oceanography,and the National Geophysical Research Institute.

The Department of Ocean Development (DoD) wasestablished in 1981 to create a deeper understanding ofthe oceans, to develop technology and technologicalaids for harnessing resources, and to understand variousphysical, chemical and biological oceanic processes.The DoD regularly conducts atmosphere and ocean-related research and observational experiments over thevast Indian coastal zone, and provides real-time datafor cyclones and storm surges to the government andother organizations. The DoD supports national,regional and international data generation and exchangeprogrammes. The DoD also maintains the IndianAntarctic Station—the Maitri and has set up a dedicatedresearch institution in India to undertake research forthe pristine Antarctic environment and climate. In orderto fulfill the objectives of the international ocean policy,the department has been promoting, funding and

implementing major R&D programmes throughvarious agencies, NGOs and universities.

Integrated environmental, ecological and forestryresearch vis-à-vis climate change is coordinated bythe MoEF. Under the aegis of ICFRE, the ministryruns several research institutions dedicated toenvironmental, forestry and ecological research. TheICFRE mandate is to organize, direct and manage theresearch and education in the Indian forestry sector.It is actively engaged in advanced research withfocused objectives of the ecological and socio-economic human needs of present and futuregenerations towards climate-related objectives ofwater and the microclimate. Research on absorptionof GHGs (carbon sinks and reservoirs) and mitigationof global warming through increasing forest reserve,are among the focused agenda of ICFRE. It iscommitted to protect forests against the harmfuleffects of pollution, including air-borne pollutants,fires, grazing, pests and diseases, in order to maintaintheir full multiple values.

Agriculture production sustainability, enhancementand related research are thrust areas of research underthe MOA. The ICAR, as the premier institution foragricultural R&D, is working on different aspects ofagriculture sustainability and meteorological research,including field research and modelling for Indian cropsystems under the projected climate change.

The MWR coordinates surface and groundwater-related data generation, management anddissemination; technology implementation and allother related research activities through itsorganizations, such as the Central Water Commission,the Central Ground Water Board, the National WaterDevelopment Agency, the National Institute ofHydrology, the Central Water and Power ResearchStation, the Central Soil and Materials ResearchStation, and various river boards. The ministry alsofunds advanced research programs of universities,autonomous research institutions (such as IITs) andNGOs for water-related activities. The ministry,through its National Commission for Water ResourcesDevelopment and other collaborative researchactivities, is conducting water resource assessment,including evaluation of impacts of climate change onIndian water resources.

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The MHRD, through academic institutions likeuniversities and IITs, operates several researchprogrammes on weather, climate, atmosphere,environment, ecology, agriculture, forestry and relatedissues. These institutions are involved in climateresearch by developing infrastructure, participatingin atmospheric observations, and modelling effortson climate simulations using various internationallyrecognized GCMs/ RCMs. They conduct project-related and need-based atmospheric observations fromtime to time.

The MoHFW, through the Malaria Research Centre,has initiated climate change related research due tothe threat of the spread of anthropogenic health andvector-borne diseases, and efforts for eradication ofthese diseases. The Centre works in collaboration withvarious institutions that are actively involved inmainstream climate-change research.

The MOD conducts atmospheric and oceanicresearch with particular focus on defence interests.In addition, the ministry also funds other agenciesfor advance research on weather, climate,environment and oceans.

Other than these mainstream research initiatives, theMHRD funds the academic set-up in India, includinguniversities and the IITs. These are involved in climateresearch either by developing the infrastructure, orby participating in observations or by the effort ofclimate simulations using various internationallyrecognized GCMs / RCMs. They carry out someobject-oriented atmospheric observations from timeto time for their research need. The universities andIITs are generally engaged in project-mode, objective-oriented research-programmes.

Other than the government ministries, severalautonomous institutions and NGOs are engaged inclimate change-related research. IIM, Ahmedabad andIIT, Delhi are front-runners. The Indira Gandhi Instituteof Development Research, an institution established bythe Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is engaged in theestimation of the climatic factors that may affect India’sdevelopment pathways. NGOs like The Energy andResource Institute, Winrock International India,Development Alternatives, Centre for Science andEnvironment, and the Society for Himalayan

Glaciology, Hydrology, Ice, Climate and Environmentoperate in project-based research mode on climatechange vulnerability, impacts and mitigation.

Apart from the Indian initiatives, climate changeresearch promoted by international organizations likethe World Climate Research Program (WCRP),International Geosphere Biosphere Programme(IGBP), International Human Dimension Program(IHDP) and DIVERSITAS are being stronglysupported by various Indian agencies like IndianClimate Research Program (ICRP) under DST,National Committee- International GeosphereBiosphere Programme (NC-IGBP) constituted byIndian National Science Academy (INSA) andGeosphere-Biosphere Program (GBP) of ISRO.Agencies like CSIR, also provides infra-structural andfinancial support to carry out research in the area ofglobal change.

Atmospheric trace constituentsIn India, a number of research activities related to themeasurements of atmospheric trace constituents arebeing carried out by different national laboratories,institutions and universities to investigate variousresearch problems, individually as well as jointly,by the financial support provided by differentgovernment and international agencies. A classicexample of such a research endeavour is themethane emission measurement from Indian ricepaddy fields, which was initiated as a result of anational campaign in 1991 in which severalinstitutions collaborated. Over a period of time,measurements of methane emission from rice paddyfields have been continuing with the involvement ofnew institutions. The impact of this cooperative studyin the international scenario was overwhelming, byestablishing that the total methane emission strengthfrom Indian rice paddy fields is about 4 Mt which ismuch lower than the initial international estimates ofabout 37 Mt.

The determination of GHG emissions from differentsectors such as energy, industries, entericfermentation, manure management, forestry, land use,land-use change and waste, are being carried out by anumber of research organizations in India. Theseinclude the National Physical Laboratory, the NationalChemical Laboratory, the Indian Institute of Science,

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the Central Fuel Research Laboratory, the JadavpurUniversity, Kolkata University, the Central LeatherResearch Institute, the National Dairy ResearchInstitute, the Indian Agriculture Research Institute,the Regional Research Laboratory, the Central RiceResearch Institute, and the Central Mining ResearchInstitute, among others. However, considering the vastcoverage these studies need to address, due to thediverse mix of technology, geographical and socialparameters, these studies are just a beginning andwould require strengthening both in terms ofinstitutions and financial resources to meet theresearch requirement.

For the measurement of aerosols and precipitation andtheir associated properties and impacts, a number ofresearch organizations are well-equipped, forexample, the National Physical Laboratory, thePhysical Research Laboratory, the Bhabha AtomicResearch Centre, IIT, Mumbai and Chennai, theIndian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, the RegionalResearch Laboratory-Bhubaneswar, the SpacePhysics Laboratory, IISc, the Dayalbagh EducationalInstitute and Rajasthan University. Several Indianresearch organizations are participating in a newISRO-GBP activity (Indian Space ResearchOrganization’s Geosphere Biosphere Program, whichalso supports global change related studies), named

as Aerosol Budget and Radiation Studies (ARBS)program to measure ambient concentrations ofatmospheric trace gas species and aerosols and theirproperties in India.

Efforts have also been made in India to establishdifferent monitoring sites at key locations to monitorambient trace gas and aerosols concentrations andtheir trans-boundary flow. In this direction, theNational Physical Laboratory, with the help of severalother institutions, is in the process of establishing fourmonitoring stations at Hanle in Laddakh using theinfrastructure facilities developed by the IndianInstitute of Astrophysics, at Darjeeling at the HighAltitude Research Center of Bose Institute; atSunderbans with Jadavpur University; and at PortBlair with Central Electro-Chemical ResearchInstitute. The Physical Research Laboratory andSpace Physics Laboratory have also establishedmonitoring facilities at Port Blair.

Climate Related Environmental Monitoring (CREM)is a multi-agency project to monitor GHGs andaerosols in India on which policy decisions regardingclimate management can be based in future. Theproject aims at establishing a network of stations inIndia to generate primary data on GHGs and aerosolson a long-term basis. Such data is of vital interest

Aerosol size distribution measuring equipment—QCMcacade impactor at one of the Indian laboratories.

High volume sampler and aerosol chemical analyser ofone of the Indian laboratories.

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with regards to climate change studies and to create asound database that can be used in future climatechange negotiations in the UN framework.

CREM is a programme to be implemented by IMDas a nodal agency in a collaborative mode involvingthe following participating agencies.

� Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM),Pune.

� Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU), New Delhi.� National Physical Laboratory (NPL), New Delhi.� Regional Research Laboratory (RRL),

Bhubaneshwar.

A pilot project in CREM is being implemented byestablishing on-site monitoring station at GB PantUniversity of Agriculture and Technology,Ranichauri, Tehri Garhwal (Uttaranchal), for GHGs,and at Delhi for aerosols in the first year. It is plannedto create a network of such facilities covering theentire country. This network will monitor gases likeCO2

, CH4

, N2O, O3

and aerosols.

Under the aegis of the Asia Least-cost GreenhouseGas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS) study andsubsequently the Initial National Communicationproject, India-specific emission coefficients have beendeveloped, such as those for methane emissions frompaddy cultivation, CO2 emissions from Indian coal,road transport, and cement manufacturing. Prior tothese, extensive methane measurements were

undertaken in major paddy growing regions of thecountry under different rice environs for the wholecropping period in 1991.

Consequently, measurements of physiochemicalparameters of atmospheric chemical composition andaerosol loadings at three different environments(Delhi, Pune and Darjeeling) are in progress to improveour understanding of the anthropogenic processesof atmospheric pollution, apart from the dynamics ofatmospheric composition.

Reconstruction of past climateThe project is aimed to focus on the late Quaternaryevolution and the palaeoenvironmental changes trendhistory of the Lower Narmada basin during the lateQuaternary period. Based on the detailed geomorphic,sedimentological and stratigraphical studies, it hasbeen established that the Narmada basin in Gujarat isa reactivated sedimentary basin, where interactionsbetween sedimentary processes, tectonics, and climateand sea-level changes have influenced the nature ofsediments.

The Birbal Sahni Institute of Palaeobotany (BSIP) hasbeen exploring plant fossils that are reliable marks ofplant climates. The palaeo-signals can be explored todecipher plants and possibly to predict future climaticchanges. The BSIP has undertaken and completedstudies on the causes and effects of deterioration offorest cover during the Holocene with particularemphasis of mangrove vegetation and Shola forests.Pollen analysis from lake sediments have revealed thataround 3,000 B.C., the Eastern Himalayas experiencedwarm temperate climates, and during 1,000 B.C., itturned more humid, before changing to the climate weexperience today. The institute has also prepared amaster tree ring chronology of Cedrus deodara anddata obtained can be used to infer climate change/variations, particularly drought cycles, during the pastcenturies.

The Indian Institute of Geo-magnetism (IIG) hascorrelated short-term weather changes with solaractivity and geomagnetic field variations in the Indianregion. This suggests that part geomagnetic field andclimate should also be correlated. Variations oftemperatures in the scale of a 100 to a 1000 years arebeing studied.

High altitude Hanle observatory in Ladakh is beingproposed to be used for monitoring ambient trace gas andaerosol concentrations.

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Climate variability and changeIndia’s climate is dominated by the summer monsoon,which shows spatial, interannual and intra-seasonalvariability. Climate variability has tremendous impacton agricultural production and water availability.Recognizing the role of land, atmosphere and oceanicprocesses in modulating the monsoon variability, amulti-disciplinary, decade-long Indian ClimateResearch Program (ICRP) has been evolved to studythe climate variability and climate change issues inthe Indian context. The ICRP envisages land-oceanatmosphere field experiments, the analysis ofavailable past data sets on climate and agriculture,and climate modelling.

A number of research projects were supported toimplement the inter-disciplinary and multi-institutional coordinated subprograms of the ICRP.The available land-based, ocean-based and space-based data sets are being analyzed towards improvingour understanding of the monsoon variability indifferent socioeconomic sectors. Field experimentswere conducted to validate the crop simulation modelsin different agro-climatic conditions. Also methaneand NO2 emissions were monitored under differentecosystems. Different global, regional and mesoscalemodels are being run to predict monsoon systems. Inorder to understand the regional and locallypredominant variability, several processes-orientedfield campaigns have also been organized.

Studies related to the physics and dynamics ofmonsoons, land-ocean-atmosphere coupled system,and indigenous development of technology foratmospheric science application, are being supportedunder MONTCLIM programme. In order to study theeffect of weather and climate in tropics, efforts arebeing made to improve parameterization of land-ocean-atmospheric processes though the AOGCMs.Agrometeorological studies related to crop-weatherrelationships are also being sponsored under theMONTCLIM.

An organized Indian climatic research with acollaborative multi-institutional approach was begunas early as 1970s, with the launch of the Indian-Sovietmonsoon experiment (ISMEX, 1973). During thesummer months, six research vessels (four from theUSSR and two from India) obtained meteorological

and oceanographic measurements over the ArabianSea, for the equatorial region and southern IndianOcean. With the help of data, important insights intothe onset of the monsoon, active and break of monsoonperiods and oceanographic phenomenon were deduced.

In 1977, the Monsoon-77 experiment was organizedto collect surface and upper air observations over thevast oceanic areas surrounding the Indiansubcontinent for unraveling the peculiarities ofmonsoon circulation. It was executed as a forerunnerof the experiment on sub-regional scale—MonsoonExperiment (MONEX) run as a subprogramme of theFirst Global GARP Experiment (FGGE). It wasjointly conducted by India and the USSR for anintensive study on different scales for monsoondisturbances and for numerical simulations of thegeneral atmospheric and ocean circulation in themonsoon regime. The routine observationalprogramme over India was augmented duringMONEX by arranging additional upper airobservations over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Seaduring the monsoon months, and by arrangingincreased radio-sonde flights from 16 existing upperair observational stations. MONEX was conductedover the oceanic regions near India with an objectiveto understand the ocean energy and its influence ondifferent phases of monsoon. MONEX provided acomprehensive data set from a large area around India,where surface and upper air networks were augmentedto meet the requirements. The upper air network waseither augmented or newly established at nineobservatories for radio-sonde observation in theexisting network. In addition, upper air observationswere also established at eight more stations for thepurpose of MONEX; three surface observatories werealso established. Efforts were also made to collectobservations from commercial ships. Advantage wasalso taken of the observing network of FGGE with afleet of about 20 ships. Upper air observations werealso managed from these ships, along with deployingthree more research ships in the Arabian Sea to meetMONEX requirements.

Hydrographic observations on board the Indianresearch vessel were made in a selected area offour squares in the east central Arabian Sea inrelation to different phases (pre-monsoon, onset andpost-onset) of the monsoon over the study area.

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Stabilized platforms were provided to ships formaking wind observations. MONEX providedenough data to establish the structure of the monsoononset vortex.

During the 1990s, the Monsoon Trough BoundaryLayer Experiment (MONTBLEX) was conductedduring the monsoon months at four stations alongthe monsoon trough to understand the boundarylayer behaviour during active and break phases. Ahuge data bank was generated for further utilizationand model validations.

The late 1990s witnessed the grand Indian OceanExperiment (INDOEX). INDOEX was a focused fieldexperiment in the Indian Ocean with internationalparticipation from the developed world and otherAsian countries. A three-month intensive field phase(IFP) was made with research aircraft, ship cruisesand observations on the land surface. With almost thesimilar objectives as INDOEX, the Bay of BengalMonsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) was conductedduring 1999. BOBMEX particularly focussed on theintra-seasonal variability of organized convection inthe atmosphere, and on the role played by ocean-atmosphere interactions in monsoon variability.Special observational platforms like deep-watermeteorology-oceanography buoys, research ships,weather radars and satellites were used, together withconventional meteorological observatories to collectdata on the variability of the monsoon and ocean-atmosphere system.

To understand the role of land surface and the modelvalidation, the Land Surface Process Experiment(LASPEX) was carried out at five stations during1997-1998 in the western Indian region. The majorobjective was the development of the Land SurfaceModel and its validation. Other major objective wasinclined to Agricultural Meteorology modelling. Theanalysis of the LASPEX data set observed the doublemixing of line structure developed during themonsoon at Anand and no gradient in the surfacesensible heat flux within the LASPEX area.

A multi-institutional and multi-technique fieldexperiment namely, the Arabian Sea MonsoonExperiment (ARMEX), has been designed under theICRP since 2002, and is planned for execution in two

phases. The main purpose of this experiment is tostudy offshore trough and vortex that play importantroles in modulating monsoon activity over the westcoast of India.

A two-dimensional interactive chemical model of thelower and middle atmosphere has been developed tostudy the atmospheric chemistry-climate interactions.The radiative forcing due to the growth of GHG dueto human activities for the past three decades has beensimulated. The ozone over the Indian Ocean is markedby significantly low values of ozone (10-20 ppb),followed by an increasing trend in the mid-troposphere and a steep gradient near the tropopause.

The Cloud Physics Laboratory in Pune University ispresently a unique facility which carries out cloudstudies in similar conditions in the atmosphere. Theavailability of such a facility for cloud-related researchwould be of paramount interest to physicists in therelevant field.

Other than these major efforts, many small scaleprojects have been and are being carried out. Someare also proposed in the near future to betterunderstand the Indian weather and climate. Forexample, to understand the nature of coupled ocean-atmosphere system, an experiment has been executedover Indian oceanic region. The focus of research wasthe Bay of Bengal. The experiment has given insightsinto tropical convection. The results will have a majorimpact on our understanding of the coupling of themonsoons to the warm oceans and modelling ofclimate.

Under the focus of upcoming major programmes forresearch related to oceans; under the ARGO project,150 floats have to be deployed in the Indian oceansbetween 2002-2007. A set of 12 floats have alreadybeen deployed. The temperature and salinity profilesare expected to improve the understanding of theoceanic processes and contribute to an improvedprediction of climate variability.

The management of natural resources like soil andwater is being carried out at eight central researchinstitutes and two project directorates, three nationalresearch centres and 15 all-India coordinated researchprojects of ICAR.

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Realizing the importance of environmentalinformation, the Government of India, established theEnvironmental Information System (ENVIS) as aplanned programme in December 1982. ENVIS is adecentralized system with a network of distributedsubject-oriented centres ensuring the integration ofnational efforts in environmental informationcollection, collation, storage, retrieval anddissemination to all concerned (http://www.envis..nic.in). The ENVIS centres have been setup in different organizations/establishments in thecountry for assessing the environment for pollutioncontrol, toxic chemicals, central and offshore ecology.Besides collecting data, ENVIS supportsenvironmentally sound and appropriate technology,bio-degradation of wastes and environmentmanagement research. The ENVIS focal pointresponded to 363 queries and the ENVIS centres over19,694 queries. The major subject areas on which thequeries were responded to pertain to laws, wastemanagement, Coastal Regulation Zones (CRZ),environmental education and awareness, air and waterpollution, wetlands, etc.

The ENVIS Focal Point implements the World Bankassisted Environmental Management CapacityBuilding Technical Assistance Project (EMCBTAP),which aims to strengthen the ENVIS scheme of theministry. The ENVIS sub-component of the EMCBTAProject is slated for a period of 18 months fromJanuary 2002 to June, 2003. The project aims atbroadening the ambit of ENVIS to include varyingsubject areas, and status of information/data pertainingto environment, and has been achieved through theparticipation of academic institutions, organizations,state governments and NGOs. The participatinginstitutions, called ENVIS-Nodes have been assignedspecific subject areas in the field of environment andare responsible for the collection, the collation anddissemination of relevant information through theweb.

A portal on the environmental information system athttp://www.envis.nic.in has been developed under theEMCBTA Project. It would act as a mother portal forall the 80 operative ENVIS centres and nodes, as wellas 16 other nodes planned. The portal would act as acatalyst for inter-nodal interaction and informationon seven broad categories of subjects related to the

environment, under which the centres and nodes havebeen classified. The websites of the ENVIS centresand nodes can also be directly accessed from the homepage of the portal.

In addition, various programmes for future needs likebiomass energy, coal-bed methane recovery forcommercial usage, energy efficient technologydevelopment, improvement of transport systems,small-scale hydro-electric power stations, anddevelopment of high-rate bio-methanation processesas a means of reducing GHG emissions are alreadybeing conducted or proposed.

Climate modelling researchUsing various established climate models from theglobal front, different organizations are simulating theclimate for India, with special attention to the Indiansummer monsoon. GCMs from Laboratoire deMeteorologie Dynamique (LMD), Florida StateUniversity (FSU), ECMRWF, Center for Ocean, Landand Atmosphere (COLA), NCMRWF, and many moreare being taken from the sources and are in the mainfront of global climate simulations in India. Regionalmodels like the MM5, RegCM3 and Eta Model, arethe forerunners in the regional climate simulations,with inputs from various GCMs.

For generating the past climate, a few statistics-basedpalaeo-climatological models are also in the forefront.Studies on the intra-seasonal and interannualvariability of the monsoon, role of moist processesand orography in the GCM, and simulation of themonsoon. The results of these all the simulations areavailable to user groups for various scientific andpractical requirements.

Agricultural meteorological modelling for Indian cropsystem with various models is the most acceptedresearch method in India. Institutions like IndianAgriculture Research Institute, NCMRWF andvarious university-level research departments arecarrying out such simulations. Through extensionprogrammes like the Agro-Advisory Services of DST,the output information is transferred directly to thepractical level, to farmers. The results are found to beencouraging at the farm level.

Field experiments were carried out at Palampur to

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generate all the relevant data on various cropparameters required for calibration of CERES-rice andwheat models. The models were validated using theobserved data from the field experiments. The resultsindicated that the development stages are wellsimulated and grain yields are satisfactory. Thevalidated models were used to simulate the effect ofvarious management practices over a number of yearson the yields of rice and wheat varieties.

At Anand, field experiments were undertaken during1999-2000 and 2001-2002 wheat-growing periods.Crop, soil and micrometeorological data were usedto estimate the land surface parameters. The radiationbudget, sensible heat flux, latent heat flux, soil heatfluxes at different phenophases of the wheat crop werealso computed. Initiated experiments of validate aCOTTAM (cotton crop growth and yield simulation)model under Punjab and the plantation croppingsystem at Thiruvananthapuram.

A comprehensive programme on Indian OceanDynamics and Modelling (INDOMOD) was alsolaunched during the Ninth Five-Year Plan, to developa variety of wide-range coupled ocean-atmospheremodels for application of the monsoon variabilitystudies and ocean state forecast. The premierparticipating institutes in the INDOMOD are IISc,Bangalore; Centre for Mathematical Modelling andComputer Application Studies, Bangalore; IIT, Delhiand Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM),Pune. The modelling activity will also be continuedduring the Tenth Plan period in a much more focusedway, including the validation of models with in-situdata. Using the ship of opportunities, 70 drifting buoyswere deployed for the acquisition of surface met-ocean parameters in real-time, using CLS ARGOSdata transmission. For understanding upper oceanvariability of heat content in the Indian ocean, XBTsurveys in three shipping routes: (a) Chennai- Port-Blair-Kolkata; (b) Chennai-Singapore; (c) Mumbai-Mauritius are being carried.

In addition, there is a suite of algorithms/models forretrieval of ocean atmospheric parameters from Indianand foreign satellites under the department’s projectSatellite Coastal Oceanographic research (SATCORE)executed by the SAC, Ahmedabad. During 2001-2002a pilot study was conducted on an experimental ocean

state forecast, based on the models developed underSATCORE and INDOMOD projects fordissemination of four parameters in the NorthernIndian ocean, viz. sea surface winds, sea surfacetemperatures, surface waves and mixed layer depth.These models and multidisciplinary data, currentlyavailable at INCOIS, Hyderabad, will also contributeto the various national projects implemented underthe Indian Climate Research Programme viz.,ASRMEX, INDOEX, which would require a greatdeal of data from upper ocean and surfacemeteorological parameters.

Satellite monitoring data forresearchSatellite-based data has enriched and enhancedresearch on Indian forest cover, water resources,agriculture crops and climatic impacts on theseresources. Ground truthing is used to validate andcomplement satellite data for a more robust analysis.For example, Indian remote-sensing satellite (IRS-1A/1B/1C & 1D) data relating to the entire Bhagirathiriver watershed upstream of Devprayag on a1:250,000 scale; for the Gangotri glacier area inparticular on a 1:50,000 scale for the years 1997,1998, 1999, 2000, 2001 and 2002; and pertainingto the peak accumulation and ablation period ofeach year, have been visually interpreted for snowcover assessment and mapping. The temporalmonitoring of the variations in spatial extent ofsnow cover have also been statistically tabulatedand graphically plotted. This has enabled monitoringthe variations in snow cover in the entire Bhagirathiriver watershed upstream of Devprayag and also inGangotri sub-watershed in particular during the pastdecade or more.

The integration of satellite-derived information withcollateral data has enabled monitoring the fluctuationsin the position of the snout of the Gangotri glacierduring the last decade and this in turn, has enabledmonitoring the rate of retreat of the snout in recenttimes with greater accuracy. A digital analysis oftopographic information has enabled thegeneration of the digital elevation model for theGangotri glacier area as viewed from different visibleangles. This has been prepared through the contoursof the Gangotri glacier area by using the ARC/INFOGIS package.

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Climate change-related impacts,vulnerability and adaptationresearchIndia has reasons to be concerned with climate change.The vast population depends on climate-sensitivesectors like agriculture and forestry for livelihood.The adverse impact on water availability due to therecession of glaciers, decrease in rainfall and increasedflooding in certain pockets would threaten foodsecurity, cause die-back of natural ecosystemsincluding species that sustain the livelihood of ruralhouseholds, and adversely impact the coastal systemdue to sea-level rise and extreme events. Apart fromthis, the achievement of vital national developmentgoals related to other systems, such as habitats, health,energy demand, and infrastructure investments,would, be adversely affected.

Preliminary research has been initiated onvulnerability assessment due to climate change onvarious socioeconomic sectors and natural ecosystemsin India during the preparation of India’s InitialNational Communication to the UNFCCC. Indianclimate change scenarios at the sub-regional levelwere developed to estimate impacts on ecological andsocioeconomic systems. This document represents theextant scientific capacity and consolidates thecontemporary literature, besides shedding light on thevulnerability of different sectors and regions of thecountry to climate change, the need for devisingadaptation responses, and demonstrates India’s firmcommitment to the objectives of the UNFCCC.

Many ministries of the Government of India have alsoinitiated research on sectoral vulnerability assessmentdue to climate change. The MST, through the ICAR,has established an ‘agro-meteorological data bank’ forcollecting, compiling and archiving various types ofagro-meteorological data and has developed a websiteto access the data. Coordinated field experimental dataavailable with the IMD is being analyzed to developcrop-weather relationship models to study climatechange impacts on Indian agriculture. Studies have alsobeen initiated on micro-regional (district as unit) rainfallvariability and its influence on crop production ineastern Uttar Pradesh and plains of Bihar.

Many case studies have also been conducted, suchas habitat diversity patterns of rarity in the terrestrial

vegetation of North-Eastern Uttar Pradesh; speciesdiversity in the Central Himalayas, patterns andrelationships with ecosystem characters; seedcharacteristics, regeneration and growth improvementof deciduous trees of the Central Himalayas;biodiversity in response to disturbance gradient in theforest of Kumaon Himalayas.

In a project, during the course of exploration, morethan 226 species of fern and fern-allies have beencollected so far from Kumaon region and it has beenobserved that 52 species are under threat mainly dueto habitat destruction and climatic changes. Out ofthese, 12 taxa are endangered.

GHG abatement researchThis component has two prominent components. Thefirst is the economic and environmental modellingbased research for estimating future emissions, andalternate policy assessments to assist India ininternational negotiations. IIM Ahmedabad, TheEnergy and Resources Institute, Indira GandhiInstitute for Development Research, JadavpurUniversity, and National Chemical Laboratory, aresome of the forerunners. These institutions employmany internationally used top-down and bottom-upmodels, such as Second Generation Model, Edmonds-Barns-Reilly model, MARKAL family of models, andAsia Pacific Integrated Model (AIM) family. Thiswork promotes international collaboration amongeminent Indian and foreign research institutes andresearchers considerably. Indian researchers have beenpublished in international journals and manyprominent researchers have also contributedsignificantly to the IPCC assessments and reportssince the last decade.

The second component covers the development oftechnologies for energy efficiency improvement,renewable energy, and sustainable development, thusin turn promoting GHG emission abatement. Theseencompass wide scientific and engineeringdisciplines. The IITs, CSIR laboratories and the IIScare at the forefront of this research. Some examplesinclude efficient lighting appliances, wind turbinesfrom low wind speeds with accelerating nozzles forirrigation and electric power generation, batteryoperated city cars, 4-stroke engines for two- and three-wheelers, efficient stand-alone microhydel-based

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Figure 4.2: Distribution of raingauge stations in India.

power generation, solar power reliability and outputenhancement, biofuels, waste to energy, coal-bedmethane, non-coking coal beneficiation, ashutilization, multi stage hydrogenation technology forconverting coal to oil, fuel cell technology, productionof fuels and chemicals from methane and CO2, in-situinfusion of fly ash with CO2, soft coke technology,and energy efficient steel making technology.

SYSTEMATIC OBSERVATIONNETWORKS

India has a long tradition of systematic observations,dating back centuries in different fields, includingmeteorology, geology, agriculture, sea level and land-survey, including mapping. Government departments,set up for specific purposes, have carried out theseobservations since the early 19 century. Observationalnetworks have undergone changes according toevolving needs, and have also been modernized to afair extent. Developments in space-based systemshave contributed considerably to observationalcapabilities. India has also participated in internationalobservational campaigns, both regionally andglobally, to further the understanding of the climateand its variability.

Atmospheric monitoringThere are 22 types of atmospheric monitoringnetworks that are operated and coordinated by theIMD (Table 4.1). This includes meteorological/climatological, air pollution and other specializedobservation of trace atmospheric constituents.Meteorological observations began in India as earlyas 1793, when the first observatory was establishedat Madras (now Chennai). The IMD formally set up in1875, is the principal agency that monitors the weatherand climate. IMD maintains 559 surface meteorologicalobservatories (see Figure 4.2 for distribution ofraingauge stations), and about 35 radio-sonde and 64pilot balloon stations for monitoring the upperatmosphere. Specialized observations are made foragro-meteorological purposes at 219 stations andradiation parameters are monitored at 45 stations.There are about 70 observatories that monitor currentweather conditions for aviation.

Although, severe weather events are monitored at allthe weather stations, the monitoring and forecasting

One of the automated surface observatories of the Indiametrological department measuring radiation, temperature,humidity, rainfall, wind direction and speed and transmittingthis information on real time basis.

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of tropical cyclones is specially done through threeArea Cyclone Warning Centres (Mumbai, Chennai,and Kolkata) and three cyclone warning centres(Ahmedabad, Vishakhapatnam and Bhubaneshwar),which issue warnings for tropical storms and othersevere weather systems affecting Indian coasts.

Storm and cyclone detections radars are installed allalong the coast and some key inland locations toobserve and forewarn severe weather events,particularly tropical cyclones. The radar network isbeing upgraded by modern Doppler Radars, withenhanced observational capabilities, at many locations.

Data archival and exchangeThe tremendous increase in the network ofobservatories resulted in the collection of a hugevolume of data. The IMD has climatological recordseven for the period prior to 1875, when it formallycame into existence. This data is digitized, qualitycontrolled and land archived in electronic media atthe National Data Centre, Pune. The current rate ofarchival is about three million records per year. Atpresent, the total holding of data is about 9.7 billionrecords. They are supplied to universities, industry,research and planning organizations. The IMDprepared climatological tables and summaries/ atlasesof surface and upper-air meteorological parametersand marine meteorological summaries. Theseclimatological summaries and publications have manyapplications in agriculture, shipping, transport, waterresources and industry.

The IMD has its own dedicated meteorologicaltelecommunication network with the central hub atNew Delhi. Under the WWW GlobalTelecommunication System, New Delhi functions asa Regional Telecommunication Hub (RTH) on the maintelecommunication network. This centre wasautomated in early 1976, and is known as the NationalMeteorological Telecommunication Centre (NMTC),embracing the Regional Telecommunication Hub(RTH) New Delhi. Within India, the telecommunicationfacility is provided by a large network ofcommunication links.

The website of IMD (http://www.imd.ernet.in),operational from 1 June, 2000, contains dynamicallyupdated information on all-India weather and

1 Surface observatories 5592 Pilot balloon observatories 65

a RS/RW observatories 34b Only RS observatories 1

3 Aviation current weather observatories 714 Aviation forecasting offices at national

and international airports 195 Regional area forecast centre 16 Storm detecting radar stations 177 Cyclone detection radar stations 108 High-wind recording stations 49 Stations for receiving cloud pictures

from satellitesa Low-resolution cloud pictures 7b High-resolution cloud pictures 1c INSAT-IB cloud pictures

(SDUC stations) 20d APT Stations in Antarctica 1e AVHRR station 1

10 Data Collection Platforms through INSAT 10011 Hydro-meteorological observatories 701

a Non-departmental rain gauge stationsi Reporting 3540ii Non-reporting 5039b Non-departmental glaciological

Observations (non-reporting)i Snow gauges 21ii Ordinary rain gauges 10iii Seasonal snow poles 6

12 Agro-meteorological observatories 21913 Evaporation stations 22214 Evapotranspiration stations 3915 Seismological observatories 5816 Ozone monitoring

a Total ozone and Umkehr observatories 5b Ozone-sonde observatories 3c Surface ozone observatories 6

17 Radiation observatoriesa Surface 45b Upper air 8

18 Atmospheric electricity observatories 419 (a) Background pollution observatories 10

(b) Urban Climatological Units 2(c) Urban Climatological Observatories 13

20 Ships of the Indian voluntaryobserving fleet 203

21 Soil moisture recording stations 4922 Dew-fall recording stations 80

Table 4.1: Atmospheric monitoring networks.

Source: http://www.imd.ernet.in

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forecasts, special monsoon reports, satellite cloudpictures updated every three hours, Limited AreaModel (LAM) generated products and prognosticcharts, special weather warnings, tropical cycloneinformation and warnings, weekly and monthly rainfalldistribution maps, earthquake reports, etc. It alsocontains a lot of static information, includingtemperature and rainfall normals over the country anda brief overview of the activities and services renderedby IMD.

Over the last three decades, the MST has successfullycompleted a few major research and data collectionexperiments through its autonomous body IITM,other allied institutions and foreign collaborationsthrough several field experiments such as IIOE,ISMEX-73, MONSOON-77, MONEX-79,MONTBLEX, INDOEX, BOBMEX, and ARMEX.Along with these, the IITM undertakes regular oceanicexpeditions on research vessels, Antarctic expeditionsand field campaigns.

The IMD, in collaboration with the NPL plays animportant role for climate change-related long-termdata collection at the Indian Antarctic base-Maitri.Continuous surface meteorological observations forabout 22 years are now available for Schirmacher Oasiswith National Data Centre of IMD (NDC). Long-termenvironment-related GHG data is also available withNPL.

The IMD collects meteorological data over oceansby an establishment of cooperation fleet of voluntaryobserving ships (VOF) comprising merchant ships ofIndian registry, some foreign merchant vessels and afew ships of the Indian Navy. These ships, whilesailing on the high seas, function as floatingobservatories. Records of observations are passedon to the IMD for analysis and archival.

Another climate change-related data archival effort isat NPL (www.npl-cgc.ernet.in), that holds a variety ofdata collected under different national and internationalprogrammes such as Indian Ocean Experiment(INDOEX), Asia Pacific Network for Global Changesupported research projects. Another off-line dataarchival centre is emerging at IIM, Ahmedabad forthe data generated during India’s Initial NationalCommunication Project (www.natcomindia.org).

Satellite-based observationsCurrently, several operational meteorological satellitesystems are providing global and regionalobservations. The Indian Space Programme, initiatedin the mid-1970s, selected meteorology and weatherforecasting as one of the thrust areas. One of theearliest satellites ‘Bhaskara’ had a microwave payloadSAMIR to study the atmosphere and ocean. TheIndian National Satellite (INSAT) series wasconceptualized as a multi-purpose geostationarysatellite system for communications, meteorology,oceanography, and weather services. Table 4.2provides information on the development anddeployment of satellites in India.

Data, related to meteorology, obtained by INSAT isprocessed and disseminated by the INSATmeteorological data-processing system (IMDPS) ofIMD. Information on upper winds, sea surfacetemperatures and precipitation index are regularlyobtained at 0600H GMT. The 0300H GMT full discinfrared pictures are obtained as radio facsimiles forreception in the neighbouring countries and fornational news network for weather reporting.

The INSAT 1 series launched in late 1980s carried aVery High Resolution Radiometer (VHRR) payloadthat operated in two spectral bands—visible (0.55-0.75 mm) and thermal infrared (10.5-12.5 mm). TheINSAT system is designed to provide the followingservices:

� Round the clock surveillance of weather systemsincluding severe weather events around the Indianregion.

� Operational parameters for weather forecasting—cloud cover, cloud top temperature, sea surfacetemperature, snow cover cloud motion vector, out-going long-wave radiation, etc.

� Collection and transmission of meteorological,hydrological and oceanographic data from remote/inaccessible areas through Data CollectionPlatforms.

� Timely dissemination of warning of impendingdisasters such as cyclones through CycloneWarning Dissemination Systems.

� Dissemination of meteorological informationincluding processed images of weather systemsthrough SDUCs.

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Table 4.2: Information on development and deployment of Indian satellites.

Satellite

Aryabhata

Bhaskara-I

Bhaskara-II

Ariane Passenger PayloadExperiment (APPLE)

Rohini Technology Payload(RTP)

Rohini (RS-1)

Rohini (RS-D1)

Rohini (RS-D2)

Stretched Rohini SatelliteSeries (SROSS-1)

Stretched Rohini SatelliteSeries (SROSS-2)

Stretched Rohini SatelliteSeries (SROSS-C)Stretched Rohini SatelliteSeries (SROSS-C2)Indian National Satellite(INSAT-1A)

Indian National Satellite(INSAT-1B)Indian National Satellite(INSAT-1C)Indian National Satellite(INSAT-1D)Indian National Satellite(INSAT-2A)

Indian National Satellite(INSAT-2B)Indian National Satellite(INSAT-2C)

LaunchDate

19.04.1975

07.06.1979

20.11.1981

19.06.1981

10.08.1979

18.07.1980

31.05.1981

17.04.1983

24.03.1987

13.07.1988

20.05.1992

04.05.1994

10.04.1982

30.08.1983

21.07.1988

12.06.1990

10.07.1992

23.07.1993

07.12.1995

Achievements

First Indian satellite. Provided technological experience inbuilding and operating a satellite system.First experimental remote-sensing satellite. Carried TV andmicrowave cameras.Second experimental remote-sensing satellite similar toBhaskara-1.First experimental communication satellite. Providedexperience in building and operating a three-axis stabilizedcommunication satellite.Intended for measuring in-flight performance of firstexperimental flight of SLV-3, the first Indian launch vehicle.Could not be placed in orbit.Used for measuring in-flight performance of secondexperimental launch of SLV-3.Used for conducting some remote-sensing technologystudies using a landmark sensor payload.Identical to RS-D1. Launched by the second developmentallaunch of SLV-3.Carried payload for launch vehicle performance monitoringand for Gamma Ray astronomy. Could not be placed in orbit.Carried remote sensing payload of German space agency inaddition to Gamma Ray astronomy payload. Could not beplaced in orbit.Launched by third developmental flight of ASLV. CarriedGamma Ray astronomy and aeronomy payload.Identical to SROSS-C. Still in service.First operational multi-purpose communication andmeteorology satellite procured from US. Worked only forsix months.Identical to INSAT-1A. Served for more than design life ofseven years.Same as INSAT-1A. Served for only one and a half years.

Identical to INSAT-1A. Still in service.

First satellite in the second-generation Indian-built INSAT-2 series. Has enhanced capability than INSAT-1 series. Stillin service.Second satellite in INSAT-2 series. Identical to INSAT-2A.Still in service.Has mobile satellite service, business communication andtelevision outreach beyond Indian boundaries. Still inservice.

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Satellite

Indian National Satellite(INSAT-2D)INSAT-2EIndian Remote SensingSatellite (IRS-1A)Indian Remote SensingSatellite (IRS-1B)Indian Remote SensingSatellite (IRS-1E)Indian Remote SensingSatellite (IRS-P2)Indian Remote SensingSatellite (IRS-1C)Indian Remote SensingSatellite (IRS-P3)Indian Remote SensingSatellite (IRS-1D)Kalpana

LaunchDate

04.06.1997

03.04.199917.03.1988

29.08.1991

20.09.1993

15.10.1994

28.12.1995

21.03.1996

29.09.1997

2003

Achievements

Same as INSAT-2C. Inoperable since 4 October, 1997 dueto power bus anomaly.Multipurpose communication and meteorological satelliteFirst operational remote-sensing satellite.

Same as IRS-1A. Still in service.

Carried remote-sensing payloads. Could not be placed inorbit.Carried remote-sensing payload.

Carries advanced remote-sensing cameras. Still in service.

Carries remote-sensing payload and an X-ray astronomypayload. Still in service.Same as IRS-1C. Still in service.

Exclusive meteorological satellite, VHRR, Still in service.

Source: http://www.isro.org/sat.htm

The INSAT 1 series consisted of four satellitemissions with VHRR payload giving visible imageswith 2.75 km resolution and thermal data with 11 kmresolution, with the capability to provide three hourlyimages and half-hourly images in sector scan mode.

The INSAT 2 series that followed was designed basedon user feedback and consists of five satellites toensure the continuity of services in an enhancedmanner. INSAT 2A and 2B launched in 1992 and 1993carried VHRR payload with improved resolution ofl2 km in visible, and l8 km in thermal band. Theimaging capability included three modes, viz. fullframe, normal mode and sector mode of five minutesfor the rapid coverage of severe weather systems.

INSAT 2E launched in 1999 carried an advancedVHRR payload operating in three channels – visiblel (2 km), thermal and water vapour (8 kms.). The watervapour channel operating I 5.7-7.1 m is capable ofgiving water vapour distribution and flow patterns inthe lower troposphere. Besides this, INSAT 2E alsocarries a CCD camera with three channels—visible,near infrared and short wave infrared with one km.resolution to map the vegetation cover.

Recently, METSAT, the first exclusive IndianMeteorological satellite in geostationary orbit, wassuccessfully launched, and carrying advanced VHRRoperating in visible, infrared and water vapourchannel. INSAT 3A will have identical payloads asINSAT 2E; INSAT 3D planned in the future will carryan atmospheric sounder for temperature and watervapour profiles and split thermal channels for accuratesea surface temperature retrieval.

At present, repetitive and synoptic weather systemobservations over Indian oceans from geostationaryorbit are available from the INSAT system. TheINSAT-VHRR data is available in near real-time, at32 meteorological data dissemination centres(MDDC) in various parts of the country. With thecommissioning of direct satellite service for processedVHRR data, MDDC data can now be provided at anylocation in the country on a real-time and archived basis.

A centre for exchange of satellite data in the field ofearth and atmospheric sciences has been establishedat IMD New Delhi as a part of Indo-US bilateralprogramme. Dedicated communication links havebeen established from this centre to the corresponding

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Figure 4.3: National Ambient Air Quality Monitoring network.

Source: CPCB, Government of India.

centre in NASA, US. The Indian scientists fromdifferent institutes are using data products availablethrough this data centre for research activities.

A 100 meteorological data collection platforms (DCP)have been installed all over the country and at theIndian base in East Antarctica (Schirmacher Oasis-Maitri Station). The CWC and Snow and AvalancheStudy Establishment (SASE) are also using INSATfacilities for real-time hydro-meteorological datacollection in the Mahanadi and Chambal basins,respectively.

Measurements of trace constituentsand air pollution monitoringThe Central Pollution Control Board (CPCB) initiateda nation-wide programme in 1984, called the NationalAmbient Air Quality Monitoring (NAAQM), with anetwork of 28 monitoring stations covering sevencities for air quality monitoring as an integral partof the air pollution control programme. Over theyears, the number of stations has increased andpresently, the network comprises 290 stationsspread over 92 cities/towns distributed over 24states and four Union Territories UTs (Figure 4.3).

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In addition to the NAAQM programme, operatedby CPCB, many state boards have set up their ownAmbient Air Quality Monitoring (AAQM)programmes. Its objectives are to:

� Strengthen the existing air monitoring system withthe adoption of state-of-the-art methodologies tomonitor the air quality.

� Monitor the criteria pollutants depending on thelocations.

� Determine present air quality status and trend.� Provide background air quality data as needed for

industrial sighting and town planning.� Control and regulate pollution from industries and

other sources to meet the air quality standards.

In addition to direct government controlledmonitoring, the National Environmental EngineeringResearch Institute (NEERI) monitors ambient airquality in 30 stations covering 10 major cities. Majorindustries have also set up their own monitoringstations near their production units as part of thecompliance of the consent conditions.

The pollutants monitored are Sulphur dioxide (SO2),Nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and Suspended ParticulateMatter (SPM), besides the meteorological parameters,like wind speed and direction, temperature andhumidity. In addition to the three conventionalparameters, NEERI monitors special parameters likeAmmonia (NH4), Hydrogen Sulphide (H2S),Respirable Suspended Particulate Matter (RSPM) andPolyaromatic Hydrocarbons (PAH).

In another atmospheric observation initiative, the IMDestablished 10 stations in India as a part of WorldMeteorological Organization’s (WMO) GlobalAtmospheric Watch (GAW, formerly known asBackground Air Pollution Monitoring Network orBAPMoN). The Indian GAW network includesAllahabad, Jodhpur, Kodaikanal, Minicoy,Mohanbari, Nagpur, Portblair, Pune, Srinagar andVisakhapatnam. Atmospheric turbidity is measuredusing hand-held Volz’s Sunphotometers at wavelength500 nm at all the GAW stations. Total SuspendedParticulate Matter (TSPM) is measured for varyingperiods at Jodhpur using a High Volume Air Sampler.Shower-wise wet only precipitation samples arecollected at all the GAW stations using specially

designed wooden precipitation collectors fitted withstainless steel or polyethylene funnel precipitationcollectors. After each precipitation event, the collectedwater is transferred to a large storage bottle to obtaina monthly sample. Monthly mixed samples collectedfrom these stations are sent to the National ChemicalLaboratory, Pune, where these are analyzed for pH,conductivity, major cations (Ca, Mg, Na, K, NH4

+)

and major anions (SO42-, NO3

-, Cl

-).

Marine observationsClimate variability in the recent past has caused a greatdeal of impact on the weather pattern, resulting indroughts and extreme heat events in various countriesof the Indian Ocean. Climate predictability is animperative need for India that is heavily dependent onmonsoons for its economy. Although the oceans playan important role in the climate change, the symbioticconnection between ocean and atmosphere, particularlyin terms of exchange of heat and mass is not yet wellunderstood. This could be due to a lack of systematicobservational network in the seas around India.

The history of sea-level measurement in India goesback to the period 1806-1827 when the first tidal

Ocean measurements being carried out in theArabian Sea.

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observations work was undertaken by James Kyd atthe Khidirpur (Kidderpore) docks, Hooghly River andcontinued at Sagar Island during 1828-1829. In 1877,the Government of India entrusted the responsibilitiesof carrying out systematic tidal observations to theSurvey of India to determine mean sea level forestablishing the data for the Vertical Control of India.Since then, numerous tidal stations have beenestablished. At present, there are 22 functional tidalstations under the technical control of the Survey ofIndia.

The department of the Ocean development hasinstituted national facilities for Oceanographicresearch which include Ocean research vessels likeSagar Kanya, Sagar Sampata, Sagar Purvi, SagarPaschimi and some data buoy vessels and newtechnology demonstration vessels.

Recognizing the importance of information andknowledge of the seas around India, the DoDformulated an integrated programme called ‘OceanObservation and Information Services (OOIS)’ forimplementation during the Ninth Five-Year Plan(1997-2002). It comprised the integration of ongoingprojects and launching of new ones implementing theOOIS programme. OOIS consisted of fourcomponents, viz., Ocean Observations, InformationServices, Modelling and Satellite research projects.OOIS aims at: (a) development of wide range ocean-atmospheric and coastal models; (b) generation ofalgorithms for retrieval of satellite parameters; (c)augmentation of ocean observations including in-situand satellite measurements; and (d) operationalizationof ocean advisory services.

In view of the contribution of data generated throughobservational platforms for weather/ climateforecasting and other coastal development activities,it is proposed to strengthen and augment theobservational network during the Tenth Five-YearPlan (2002-2007) by deployment of a variety of state-of-the-art technology buoys and floats. Severalnational agencies, such as, the National Institute ofOceanography (NIO) at Goa, the National Institute ofOcean Technology (NIOT) at Chennai, and the Surveyof India at Dehradun have been involved in thegeneration of data pertaining to coastal and open seasof India. Towards collating and archival of the dataand effective dissemination of information to the endusers through a single window, a dedicated centrecalled the Indian National Centre for Ocean InformationServices (INCOIS) was established at Hyderabad inFebruary 1999. Accomplishments of this scheme are:

Ocean Observing Systems

The ocean observations, both in-situ and satellite measurements, playa vital role in understanding theocean atmospheric processed.Systematic time-series surfacemetrological and oceanographicobservations are essential primarilyto improve oceanographic servicesand predictive capability of short-and long-term climate changes.The time series observation data

on waves, wind, currents, air temperature, pressureAn ocean research vessel Sagar Kanya of the Departmentof Ocean Development.

Box 4.1: OceanographicInfrastructure – National Facility

� ORV Sagar Kanya� FORV Sagar Sampada� CRV Sagar Purvi� CRV Sagar Paschimi� New data buoy vessel - for deployment,

operational and maintenance of oceanobservational networks such as mooredocean buoys, ARGO, Drifting buoys, XBTs,current meter array and other oceanographicresearch activities.

� New technology demonstration vessel

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and others are required for carrying out basicresearch and developmental activities in thecoastal/ ocean areas and to study ocean processes.Recognizing the importance of these measurements,the DoD has proposed to augment the observationalnetwork during the Tenth Five-Year Plan bydeployment of a set of state-of-the-art profiling floatsand moored ocean data buoys.

Moored Ocean Data Buoy ProgrammeThe primary objectives are to support national,regional and international programmes relating toocean sciences and technology by providing real-timeand archived data and related information and toprovide real-time data for programmes relating to theprediction of movement of cyclones and consequentstorm surges that are devastating in nature.

During the Ninth Five-Year Plan, the DoD establisheda 12-ocean buoy network in the areas around India,with partial financial assistance from the NorwegianAgency for Development Cooperation (NORAD),Norway. The data buoys are equipped to record thedata on atmospheric temperature, humidity, pressure,sea surface temperature, and salinity and waveparameters through their sensors. They are transmittedto the International Maritime Satellite (IMMARSAT)and received at NIOT. Data is regularly disseminatedto users like IMD for weather predictions. The otheruser groups include, Climate Research Group inDepartment of Science and Technology, the IISc, theNavy, and Ports. The NIOT is currently operating 14moorings, out of which 12 are providing real-timedata. In order to attain self-reliance, the NIOT is underan advanced stage of indigenous production of thesedata buoys, including the critical central processingunit, and the satellite transmitter and transceiver forINSAT, which has been jointly developed by NIOTand the SAC, Ahmedabad.

Indian Array for Real-time GeotropicOceanography (ARGO) ProjectThe International ARGO project envisages thedeployment of 3,000 profiling floats in the globalocean at approximately 3

0x3

0 (300 km x 300 km)

resolution. About 20 countries including India, havecommitted resources to the project. The floats inARGO will provide temperature and salinity data overthe entire world’s ocean at 10-day intervals. These

floats are designed to dive up to 2,000 m depth tomake measurements and transmit the data throughsatellite to ground stations, when they reappear. Eachfloat is capable of making 200 profiles over a periodof five years.

Under this programme, 450 ARGO floats are to bedeployed in the Indian Ocean region. India holds amajor share of such buoys in the Indian Ocean region,thus acquiring a leadership in the regional climateprogramme. The DoD has made a commitment forthe deployment of about 150 in the northern IndianOcean north of 10

o South over a period of five years

(2002-2007), of which 12 have already been deployed.For the first time in the Indian Ocean, India conducteda 3-ARGO float mission with 10 days, five days, and10 & five-day cycles to capture the inter-annualvariability in the region. Data from these floats isbeing received and made available on the websitefor users after the real-time quality checks. TheIndian National Centre for Ocean InformationServices, the National Insti tute of OceanTechnology and the IISc are the other institutionsinvolved in this programme.

In the long run, the ARGO data would help to greatlyimprove our knowledge of scientific problems suchas the interaction of atmosphere and ocean oninterannual time scales, as well as providing a highlyuseful set of measurements that will be relevant tomore practical problems associated with shipping,fisheries and environmental assessment applications.This will also contribute to various national projectsbeing undertaken by India, through the Indian ClimateResearch Program (ICRP). These temperature andsalinity profiles are expected to improve ourunderstanding of the oceanic processes and contributeto improved prediction of climate variability.

Data from the global array of profiling floats would beput on the GTS immediately to enable its use inoperational forecasting. Delayed mode data, afterdetailed quality control checks by the ARGO datacentres, would be available within a few months viathe Internet. One-year time series data collected fromthe Canadian Float deployed by India were analyzedand developed to decide the ARGO Float design forthe Indian Ocean region.

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A website for the India ARGO Programme with WebGIS and query facilities and for coordination of ARGOfloat deployment in the Indian Ocean was set up.Data from about a 100 floats (about 2,600temperature and salinity profiles) deployed byvarious countries in the Indian Ocean is availableon the INCOIS website for the scientificcommunity. Data from 600 floats have also beenarchived. Under a joint project of INCOIS and CAO/IISc, the hydrographic structure of western ArabianSea was studied, using the data from ARGO floats inthe region. A software package for on-line real-timequality control of ARGO data, incorporating 21quality checks approved by the International AgroScience Team was developed.

There are three autonomous bodies of the DoD viz.,the National Institute of Ocean Technology, Chennai;the Indian National Centre for Ocean InformationServices (INCOIS), Hyderabad and the NationalCentre for Antarctic and Ocean Research (NCAOR),Goa which are primarily responsible for deployment,operation and maintenance of ocean observationplatforms and ships for promoting the oceanobservations. In addition, the National Institute ofOceanography, Goa and the Survey of India,Dehradun had executed projects for acquisition ofoceanographic data, under the Ocean ObservingSystem of the DoD.

Considering the importance of the data and its utilityto various national programmes, the DoD hasproposed to strengthen the observational networkduring the Tenth Plan by deployment of state-of-the-art technology ARGO profiling floats in the Indianocean north of 10

0 south for real-time collection of

temperature and salinity data up to a depth of 2000m. A set of 10 ARGO floats out of the proposed 150floats has already been deployed in the Bay of Bengal.The moored data buoy network will be increased to40. Under the sea-level programme, 10 Float typedigital tide gauge stations were established in majorports of India for systematic, accurate and long timemeasurements of sea level.

Indian National Centre for OceanInformation Services (INCOIS)In order to coordinate the various projects and togenerate and supply data products effectively to the

users through a single window, an autonomous bodyknown as the Indian National Centre for OceanInformation Services (INCOIS) was established in1999, at Hyderabad. The mandate of INCOIS is tosynthesize, generate, promote, provide and coordinatevarious activities for ocean science observations,information and advisory services. Further, synergyand knowledge networking with centres of excellencein ocean atmospheric sciences, space applicationcentres and information technology as well astranslating the scientific knowledge into usefulproducts are primary goals of INCOIS. This centre ismarching ahead with a mission to provide the bestpossible ocean information and advisory services tosociety, industry, government agencies and scientificcommunity research. Within a short span of itsexistence, the INCOIS has been recognized as aninstitution focusing on providing advances in spaceand ocean sciences to help the common man.Further, the initiatives taken by INCOIS duringthe last two years with respect to the InternationalARGO programme and the Global OceanObserving System have enabled India to gain asignificant niche in the global scenario. INCOIS hasalso been recognized as the Regional ARGO datacentre for Indian Ocean.

Terrestrial observations

Cryospheric observationsA systematic study of glaciers was begun by theGeological Survey of India (GSI) during 1907 to1910, as part of an international programme to studyglaciers. In 1974, it established the GlaciologyDivision for northern region, with its headquarters atLucknow and the Eastern Region Division establishedat Kolkata in 1979.

The GSI carried out glaciological studies in Jammuand Kashmir (Neh-Nar, 1974-1984; Harmuk andRulung); Himachal Pradesh (Gara, 1973-1983; GorGarang, 1975-1985; Shaune Garang; 1981-1991);Uttar Pradesh (Tipra Bamak, 1980-1988; Dunagiri,1984-1992); and Sikkim (Zemu and ChangmeKhangpu glaciers). It also carried out snow coverassessment of Beas basis, Dhauliganga valley, andSind Valley. The GSI has thus completed the firstgeneration glacier inventory of UP, HP, J&K andSikkim. They have largely confined their study to

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mass balance, glacier recession, suspended sedimenttransfer and geomorphological studies.

The Survey of India (SOI), the oldest scientificdepartment of the Government of India, set up in 1767,is the national survey and mapping organization ofthe country. The most significant contribution of SOIin the study of glaciers, is the accurate demarcationof all glaciers on topographical maps that can providea vital data source for glaciological research.

The IMD established the glaciology Study ResearchUnit in Hydromet Directorate in 1972. This unit hasbeen participating in glaciological expeditionorganized by the GSI and the DST. The unit wasestablished for the: (a) determination of the naturalwater balance of various river catchment areas forbetter planning and management of the country’swater resources; (b) snow melt run-off and otherhydrological forecasts; (c) reservoir regulation; (d)better understanding of climatology of the Himalaya;and (e) basic research of seasonal snow cover andrelated phenomena. The IMD has establishedobserving stations over the Himalayan region tomonitor weather parameters over glaciers.

The Snow and Avalanche Study Establishment(SASE), a defense research organisation has beenworking in the field of snow avalanches since 1969.The emphasis has been the mitigation of snowavalanche threat by various active and passivemethods. Avalanche forecasting and avalanche controlmeasures form the front-line research areas of thisestablishment. The basic research in snow physics,snow mechanics and snow hydrology naturallyfollowed in pursuit of the solutions to problems relatedto snow avalanches. SASE has established about 30observatories in western Himalayan region, which arevery close to the glacier environment. The datacollected at these observatories mostly pertains toweather, snow and avalanches. In addition, a chain of10 Automatic Weather Stations (AWS) has beenestablished at different places in the westernHimalayan region. Of these, two have been installedright on a glacier.

In addition, these several other academic and researchinstitutions, like the Wadia Institute of HimalayanGeology (WIHG), Physical Research Laboratory

(PRL) and the Jawaharlal Nehru University (JNU) haveactively taken part in studying of the Himalayanglaciers.

Satellite-based observations of the glaciers and theirmass balance characteristics are also being carried outregularly by the SAC.

EcosystemsIndia by virtue of its varied topography, climate andhabitats, is very rich in biodiversity resources rightfrom cold deserts to the tropical littoral forests. It isalso rich in its folk and traditional knowledge ofproperties and uses of these resources. Biodiversityresources are valued directly, such as food for humans,fodder for animals, energy sources as fuel, nutrientslike leaf manure and structural materials likepharmaceuticals, fibre, fragrances, flavours, dyes andother materials of special interest.

A record of India’s plant wealth indicates that thereare approximately 17,500 species of angiosperms,48 species of gymnosperms, 1,200 species of ferns,6,500 species of algae, 14,500 species of fungi,2,500 species of lichens, 845 species of liverwortsand 1,980 species of mosses. Several organizationsare involved in the observational and research aspectsof the flora and fauna of the country, as also thedifferent ecosystems.

The FSI, an organization under the MoEF, has beenundertaking assessment of forest resources in thecountry since 1965. As per its current mandate, theFSI has to assess the forest cover of the country in atwo-year cycle, which is published regularly in theform of ‘State of Forest Report’ (SFR). The latestSFR 2001 reports the forest cover of the wholecountry at a 1:50,000 km scale, using a combinationof remote sensing satellite data and field survey. Studyimprovements have resulted in a complete picture ofthe extent of forest and tree cover in India. The presentassessment shows that forest covers (20.55 per cent)and tree cover (2.48 per cent) constitute a healthy23.03 per cent of the country’s geographical area. Forthe first time, an error matrix has been generated bycomparing the classified forest cover with the actualforest cover on the ground, at 3,680 locations spreadthroughout the country to arrive at the accuracy offorest cover classification. The present assessment

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Table 4.3: Basin-wise hydrological and sediment observation.

*G=Gauge, GD= Gauge Discharge, GDS=Gauge Discharge and Silt, GDW= Gauge Discharge and Water Quality, GDSW=GaugeDischarge, Silt and Water Quality.

States/Regions G* GD* GDS* GDW* GDSW* Total

East-coast rivers of Andhra Pradesh 24 59 0 24 50 157Brahmaputra basin 64 27 14 0 12 117East-coast rivers of Tamil Nadu 0 3 0 13 14 30East-coast -rivers of Orissa and West Bengal 27 15 0 1 24 67Ganga basin, Damodar basin and Kangsabati 92 110 6 29 89 326Indus basin 1 15 9 0 0 25West-coast rivers of Kerala 0 0 0 3 16 19Rivers of Meghalaya 0 4 0 0 0 4West-coast rivers of Gujarat 18 25 0 9 32 84Rivers of Mizoram and Manipur 5 5 1 0 0 11Barak and other rivers of Tripura 4 11 11 0 0 26West-coast rivers of Maharashtra, Goaand Karnataka 1 7 0 1 2 11Total 236 281 41 80 239 877

shows that mangrove cover in the country occupiesan area of 4,482 sq. km of which 2,859 sq. km is densemangrove.

Many research institutions and AgriculturalUniversities under the ICAR are engaged in datacollection and research in the agriculture sector. Theagronomy division of the ICAR, over the past 50-60years, has gathered soil parameters for agriculturalresource management. Agriculture-related weatherdata and grain-wise agricultural yield data are collectedat the local level at evenly distributed sites all overthe India.

Hydrological observationsThe Central Water Commission (CWC) under theMWR, operates a national network of about 877hydrological observation stations. The data observedat field units is processed at various levels andarchived. The CWC is also imparting training tovarious research institutions, universities, central andstate pollution control boards for the systematiccollection of river water samples.

The Central Ground Water Board (CGWB), anotherinstitution under the MWR, monitors the ground waterlevels from a network of 14,995 stations (mostly dug

wells) distributed evenly throughout the country. Dugwells are being gradually replaced by Piezometersfor water-level monitoring. Measurements of waterlevels are done four times during the year in themonths of January, April/ May, August andNovember. The ground water samples are collectedduring April/May for analyses of chemical changes.The generated data is used to prepare maps ofground water-level depths, water-level contours andchanges in water-levels during different time periods.The data is also used to prepare long-term changestrends in water levels. The CGWB has categorizedthe Indian subcontinent into 12 basins. At the basinlevel, several parameters are being monitored and areavailable with the CWC for various national researchneeds (Table 4.3).

ConclusionIndia has invested heavily in scientific infrastructurewith the view that a strong science and technical baseis key to industrial development and self-reliance.This included setting up independent institutes ofhigher education in science and engineering, as wellas a complex of national laboratories under theumbrella of the CSIR, the ICAR and otherautonomous research institutes of excellence undervarious ministries and departments. India now has

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one of the largest scientific manpower in the world.This serves as a backdrop for understanding thepotential of Indian science to address climate changeresearch and assessment. Collaborative activitiesamong these groups are rarely catalyzed byinstitutional or programmatic structures. Of late, therehave been some efforts by the DST to coordinateclimate research through its Indian Climate ResearchProgramme (ICRP, launched in 1996), which has

successfully mounted observational efforts(BOBMEX, ARMEX) to understand the Indian south-west monsoon variability. New programmes to bringtogether research groups to solve common problemshave also been initiated by the MoEF. There ishowever, a strong need to integrate the research effortsto focus on climate change issues of relevance for theregion.

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Education, Training and Public Awareness

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Environmental protection and sustainabledevelopment are India’s key national priorities. Thiscommitment is reflected through outreach andeducation efforts undertaken by the government, civilsociety organizations, academic and researchinstitutions, industry associations and the media. .

MINISTRY OF ENVIRONMENTAND FORESTS

The Ministry of Environment and Forests (MoEF) isthe nodal agency for the subject of climate change inIndia. The MoEF has created various mechanisms forincreasing public awareness and enhancing researchin climate change by giving grants for wide-rangingresearch programmes and creating centres ofexcellence. These encompass issues related toenvironment as well as climate change. Some notableinitiatives are as under:

Awareness generationThe first step towards meeting the challenges posedby climate change is to create awareness among civilsociety as well as policy-makers about its causes andpotential consequences. The MoEF has institutedvariety of measures, for information disseminationand outreach. The Government of India has a long-standing commitment and policies for disseminationof environmental information. The EnvironmentalInformation System (ENVIS) was instituted as a planprogramme in December 1982. Since its inception, thefocus of ENVIS has been on providing environmentalinformation to decision makers, policy planners,scientists and engineers, research workers, and otherstakeholders all over the country. (See Box 1).

Since environment is an all encompassing and multi-disciplinary subject, building a comprehensiveinformation system on the environment necessitates

This is a virtual system managed under the umbrellaof the MoEF for archiving information and data onvarious environment-related activities includingclimate change. The website of this activity iswww.envis.nic.in

The subjects covered include:� Chemical waste and toxicology� Ecology and ecosystems� Flora and fauna� Environmental law and trade� Environmental economics� Environmental energy management� Media, environment education and sustainable

development � State of the environment report and related issues

Box 5.1: ENVIS � Population and environment

The ENVIS Focal Point publishes ParyavaranAbstracts, a quarterly journal carrying abstracts ofthe environmental research conducted in the Indiancontext. It also publishes ENVIRONEWS, aquarterly newsletter that reports important policies,programmes, new legislations/rules, importantnotifications and other decisions taken by theministry from time to time.

The website of the ministry, www.envfor.nic.in, hasbeen developed and is maintained by the ENVISFocal Point. The ENVIS Secretariat also maintainsthe web site www.sdnp.delhi.nic.in, which providesinformation on climate change and on several relatedtopics such as disaster management, energy, forests,pollution and poverty.

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the involvement and effective participation of a rangeof institutions and organizations in the countryengaged in different spheres of the environment.ENVIS has therefore expanded as a network ofnumerous participating institutions and organizations.A network comprising 85 ENVIS Nodes with 25ENVIS Centres have been established that cover thediverse subject areas of environment, with a FocalPoint in the MoEF. The ENVIS nodes now exist in30 government departments, 34 institutions and 21NGOs.

Participation in World Summit onSustainable Development (WSSD)India participated in the WSSD held in Johannesburgin 2002, the primary objective of which was to reviewthe progress made towards the commitments made10 years ago at the Earth Summit, with reference toAgenda 21 and other Rio agreements, including theFramework Convention on Climate Change. Duringthe run up to the WSSD, MoEF initiated a preparatoryprocess, which involved several multi-stakeholderconsultations at the national and regional levels, toidentify and discuss issues relevant for India at theSummit. More than a 1,000 people participated inthese consultations. Based on India’s participation, adocument titled Sustainable Development: Learningsand Perspectives from India evolved. To involve awide cross-section of civil society in the discussions,a media campaign was undertaken to disseminatecommissioned articles and background informationon WSSD-related issues.

The MoEF also sought to create awareness aboutsustainable development and WSSD among children,by organizing essay writing, painting, poetry writingand photography competitions across the country.More than 100,000 students from 14,000 schoolsparticipated in these competitions.

Hosting of COP-8As a party to the UNFCCC, India had the privilege ofhosting the Eighth Conference of Parties (COP-8) inNew Delhi from 23 October to 1 November 2002.More than 4,300 delegates from 170 countriesattended the Conference, 52 officials and 395 NGOand other civil society delegates from India

participated in various official and side events. Onthe final day, the parties adopted the Delhi Declarationon Climate Change and Sustainable Development,which reaffirms development and poverty eradicationas the overriding priorities in developing countries,and implementation of the UNFCCC commitmentsaccording to the parties’ common but differentiatedresponsibilities, development priorities andcircumstances.

In order to create awareness among variousstakeholders in the country about climate changeissues, the ongoing international negotiations, and theemerging challenges and opportunities, the MoEForganized several events leading up to COP-8. InMarch 2002, it organized a high-level consultationof environment ministers and delegates from 35countries who endorsed India’s proposal for a DelhiDeclaration. In addition, the MoEF facilitated 44events by NGOs, half of which were organized byIndian NGOs, academic institutions, industryassociations, and government ministries anddepartments. The events ranged from a cartoonexhibition on climate change to workshops andseminars on the Clean Development Mechanism, andclimate change mitigation and adaptation strategies.

Initiatives under the aegis of India’sInitial National CommunicationAs a part of its commitment to the UNFCCC, theGovernment of India, through the MoEF initiated theproject titled ‘Enabling Activities for the Preparationof India’s Initial National Communication to theUNFCCC’, or the NATCOM project in 2001. TheMoEF was the executing and implementing agencyfor this project.

The process for the preparation of the NationalCommunication adopted a broad participatoryapproach involving research institutions, technicalinstitutions, universities, government departments andNGOs, necessitated by the vast regional diversity andsectoral complexities in India, duly utilizing andenhancing the diverse extant institutional capabilities.To facilitate the process, under the aegis of the project,27 seminars and workshops have been conducted allover India for planning the work, developing linkagesbetween climate change issues and developmental and

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economic processes, and for training and raisingawareness on issues pertaining to differentcomponents of the National Communication(Figure 5.1).

The process has initiated efforts to identify areas offuture research to strengthen the Initial NationalCommunication experience, gaps and future needshave been identified for the development andstrengthening of activities for creating publicawareness, ensuring meaningful inputs into education,and enabling access to information. A website(www.natcomindia.org) has been developed fordissemination of information and publications arisingout of the project.

Industry and ClimateAs industry is one of the major contributors of GHGemissions, the MoEF organized conferences on‘Climate Change: Issues, Concerns andOpportunities’ at different locations in collaborationwith various chambers of commerce and industry. Tocreate awareness about climate change issues relatedwith the sector of economy most vulnerable to theconsequences of the phenomenon, MoEF collaboratedwith the MoA, UNEP and the Consultative Group ofInternational Agriculture Research, to organize aworkshop on ‘Adaptation to climate change foragricultural productivity: the South Asia expertworkshop’. The MoEF also organized a workshop tobrief the media and enlist their involvement inproviding wide and informed coverage to theproceedings and activities of COP-8, as well as to theissues related to climate change.

Other Initiatives and EventsThe MoEF promotes and supports other initiativesthat in some way, direct or indirect, are significantin the context of climate change vulnerability,adaptation and emission abatement. Most of thesehave an education, training or outreach component.Some of these initiatives are listed below:

AfforestationThe principal aim, as stated in the National ForestPolicy, 1988, is that it must ‘ensure environmental

Figure 5.1: Workshops conducted under the aegis of India’s Initial National Communication project.

The website of India’s Initial National Communication.

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stability and maintenance of ecological balanceincluding atmospheric equilibrium, which are vitalfor sustenance of all life-forms, human, animal andplant’ (www.envfor.nic.in). The NationalAfforestation and Eco-Development Board isresponsible for promoting afforestation, with specialattention to degraded forest areas. One of its mainfunction is to create awareness and help foster people’smovement for promoting afforestation and eco-development with the assistance of voluntaryagencies, NGOs, Panchayati Raj institutions, andothers. The National Wastelands Development Boardunder the Ministry of Rural Development is similarlyresponsible for the restoration of degraded privatelands.

Joint Forest ManagementRecognizing that forests cannot be protected orregenerated without the active and willinginvolvement of the forest-fringe communities, theMoEF adopted the JFM strategy more than a decadeago. So far 27 states have issued orders to enable theparticipation of local communities with active supportof state forest departments and NGOs (MoEF, 2002).

Coimbatore CharterIn January 2001, a national conference onenvironment and forests was held at Coimbatore,which resolved to protect and improve theenvironment and forests of the country in accordancewith several measures decided upon. One of theresolutions of the Coimbatore Charter was that the

central government would keep the state and UTgovernments informed about the developments oninternational issues related to the protection of theenvironment and forests. These would cover allsubjects addressed under the various UN Conventionsand agreements, including climate change.

GLOBEThe MoEF is the coordinating agency in India forGLOBE, a hands-on, internet-based science andeducation programme, which involves primary andsecondary level students in more than 10,000 schoolsin nearly 100 countries. These students study, observe,explore and take environmental measurements relatedwith atmosphere, water, soils, and land cover andbiology. They report this data through the Internet tothe GLOBE data archives, create maps and graphs toanalyze the data, and collaborate with scientists andother students around the world on projects to betterunderstand their local and the global environment,and the earth as a system (www.globe.gov).

ResearchThe MoEF has been funding research in multi-disciplinary aspects of environmental and ecosystemsprotection, conservation and management at variousuniversities, research institutes and NGOs. The MoEFhas also identified several areas for priority action,which include Clean Technologies and climatechange. The MoEF and the UK Department forEnvironment, Food and Rural Affairs (DEFRA) arecollaborating on a joint research programme onImpacts of Climate Change in India. The findings,data and knowledge generated by the various researchprojects provide valuable inputs for climate changeawareness, education and training efforts (MoEF,2002).

Education, training and outreachThe MoEF has a well-established institutionalstructure for education, training and public awareness.The Indian Council of Forestry Research andEducation (ICFRE), Dehradun, is an autonomousorganization of the ministry. It organizes and managesresearch, education and extension in the field offorestry, and runs doctoral and postdoctoral researchprogrammes in various disciplines of forestry atdifferent institutes under ICFRE. The Indira GandhiNational Forest Academy and the Directorate of

Afforestation on common land through peoples’participation.

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Forest Education, both at Dehradun, impart in-serviceprofessional training to the Indian Forest Serviceprobationers, the State Forest Service and ForestRange Officers.

The Indian Institute of Forest Management, Bhopal,provides training in management and related subjectsto officers from the Indian Forest Service, ForestDepartments, Forest Development Corporations andforest-related industries, with a view to inculcatingprofessionalism in forestry management. It also runsa two-year post-graduate diploma in ForestryManagement, and a one-year M.Phil-level course inResource Management. The Wildlife Institute ofIndia, Dehradun, imparts training to government andNGOs, and conducts research and training onconservation and management of wildlife resources.

The National Museum of Natural History, in NewDelhi, and the three regional museums at Mysore,Bhopal and Bhubaneswar, promote non-formalenvironmental education and creates environmentaland conservation awareness through various outreachactivities.

To strengthen public awareness, research and trainingin priority areas of environmental science andmanagement, and environmental education, the MoEFhas set up eight Centres of Excellence. Of these, theCentre for Environment Education, Ahmedabad; theCPR Environmental Education Centre, Chennai; andthe Centre for Ecological Sciences, Bangalore, havebeen particularly active in organizing workshops,training programmes and seminars for teachers,communicators, NGOs and others on a variety ofthemes in environment and development, and pureand applied ecology respectively. All the eightCentres have the potential to increase climate changeeducation, training and outreach efforts in theirrespective spheres of work.

The National Environment Awareness Campaign is anation-wide programme supported by the MoEF toencourage NGOs and institutions to undertakeprogrammes to create awareness about environmentalissues. The ministry runs the Eco-clubs programmeto mobilize youth for environmental action. Thestudent members of Eco-clubs constitute the NationalGreen Corps (NGC). The programme already reaches

out to more than 50,000 schools across the country.The NGC has already initiated energy-relatedactivities, to which climate change education couldbe added easily and seamlessly.

ROLE OF OTHER MINISTRIESAND DEPARTMENTS

While the MoEF is the nodal ministry in theGovernment of India for the subject of climate change,other ministries and departments have also beenactively involved in creating awareness about energyconservation and climate change issues throughsectoral initiatives, extension services, educationaland training inputs and providing research support.As the energy sector is the major emitter of GHG,contributing about 61 per cent of the country’semissions in 1994, several outreach initiatives havebeen taken by various ministries in this area.

Ministry of Agriculture (MoA)Agriculture, especially in the arid and semi-aridtropics, is the activity that is most vulnerable to climatechange. A projected one-metre rise in the sea-levelis expected to inundate about 1,700 km2 of agriculturalland in Orissa and West Bengal alone (IPCC, 1992).The most vulnerable section of society will be thepoor, the marginal farmers and the landlessagricultural labourers. The increasing frequency andintensity of extreme weather events will also have adirect bearing on agriculture. Recognizing the needfor urgent action, the need to build capacity and todeal with climate change issues related to agriculture,a dedicated unit—Climate Change Cell—has been setup within MoA.

In the Ninth Plan Period (1997-2002) the MoAlaunched the National Agriculture Technology Projectto strengthen research, education and human resourcesdevelopment in agriculture, through its national gridcomprising 46 institutes including universities,research centres and regional stations. All of theseform a large infrastructure for climate change researchand outreach activities.

As agriculture in most developing countries isvulnerable to the impacts of climate change, the needfor adaptive strategies becomes paramount. Thus, thisbecame the focus of the MoA’s activities at COP-8,

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where it hosted workshops for experts, policyplanners, negotiators and civil society on adaptingagriculture to climate change.

Ministry of Home AffairsThe Ministry of Home Affairs (MoHA) is the nodalministry for disaster management. Through theDisaster Risk Management Programme initiated in2002, the United Nations Development Programme(UNDP) proposes to accelerate capacity building indisaster reduction and recovery activities at thenational level and in some of the most vulnerableregions of the country, through community-basedactivities. The programme will support the MoHAto set up an institutional framework for disasterpreparedness, prevention and mitigation. The focusof the programme is on awareness generation andeducation, training and capacity development ofgovernment officials in the areas of disaster riskmanagement at the community, district and statelevels. This will also enable them to help communitiesdevelop disaster plans.

As a joint initiative of the UNDP and the MoHA, amodule on disaster management has been introducedin the revised curriculum of the Central Board ofSecondary Education for classes 8, 9 and 10.

Ministry of Non-ConventionalEnergy SourcesThe Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources(MNES) manages one of the world’s largest renewableenergy programmes. The Indian Renewable EnergyDevelopment Agency Limited (IREDA), an agencyof the MNES, conducts publicity campaigns todisseminate information about renewable energytechnologies through the print and electronic media,seminars, exhibitions and business conferences. It hastaken a number of initiatives for empowering womenthrough renewable energy programmes. The MNEShas set up the Information and Public Awareness(I&PA) Programme to create mass awareness aboutnew and renewable sources of energy systems anddevices throughout the country. These includeinitiatives such as, biogas plants (See Box 5.2), solar

An Energy Park at an institution in Gujarat.

Learning-by-doing workshop for children and villagers onvarious types of solar cookers.

Educating farmers on manure management.

Biogas plants and lanterns help rural households with theirlighting and cooking needs.

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cookers, improved wood stoves, solar lanterns, homelighting systems, street lighting systems, and solarwater pumping.

To create awareness about the use and benefits ofrenewable energy products and devices, the MNEShas also initiated an Energy Park Scheme. These parksare set up at public places and institutions that have alarge inflow of people.

The MNES organizes business meets, workshops andseminars to promote renewable energy technologies;it also funds NGOs and other institutions to organizesuch events. The MNES has set up specializedtechnical institutions to constantly work on theupgradation of renewable energy technologies, andfor manpower training. It also supports technology-specific training courses at academic institutions. TheMNES has also instituted the National RenewableEnergy (NRE) fellowships for Masters and Doctoralprogrammes in renewable energy.

Scientists and technologists working with theministry, the state nodal agencies and other institutionsengaged in R&D are sent abroad for training, studytours, conferences, and workshops to update their

knowledge and skills.

Under the Government of India / UNDP Rural EnergyProgramme Support, the MNES has undertaken as aclimate change mitigation effort, a demonstrationproject of community-managed gasifiers in the tribalareas of Jharkhand. A few UNDP/GEF assistedprojects on reducing GHG emissions such as bydeveloping small hydel resources in hilly regions havealready been implemented, and others are also beingproposed (MNES, 2002).

Ministry of Petroleum and NaturalGasEvery year since 1991, all the constituents of theMinistry of Petroleum and Natural Gas devote a fullfortnight to improving the awareness on theimportance and need for oil conservation.

In 1976, the Ministry established the PetroleumConservation Research Association (PCRA). PCRA’soutreach activities include the use of mass media,printed literature and outdoor publicity for increasingawareness about petroleum conservation amongconsumers. It also publishes a quarterly journal ActiveConservation Techniques, and a newsletter. The

The Satia Paper Mills, Muktsar, Punjab, used togenerate large amounts of organic waste, includingmethane, as a result of its manufacturing process.They also used 20 tonnes of rice husk per day intheir boilers, leading to the substantial emission ofGHG. The conventional effluent treatment systemwas not able to meet the norms set by the PollutionControl Board, and the mill had becomeeconomically unviable.

In 1997, the mill switched to a technology, whichprovided a solution to both its effluent treatmentand energy requirement problems. As part of theUNDP-supported “Development of high rateBiomethanation Processes as means of reducingGreenhouse gases emission” being implemented bythe MNES, an Upflow Anaerobic Sludge BlanketBioreactor was installed at the mill. The reactor usesthe organic waste from the mill to produce biogas.The biogas is used in the boilers, resulting in the net

Box 5.2: Managing Methane saving of the operating cost of the mill. The use ofrice husk is also avoided, which further reduces itsemission levels. The new technology has meant 45per cent reduction in chemical oxygen demand andaround 80-85 per cent biological oxygen demandreduction.

This technology can be used in a variety ofproduction processes where organic waste levels arehigh, including leather factories and tanneries,dairies, confectioneries, food processing units andbreweries. Started in 1994, the MNES project servesnot only to control emissions of methane but alsoutilizes it as a clean fuel. The project aims toprovide technical assistance and institutionalpreparation for formulating a national strategyfor biogas generation and util ization, inintroducing, demonstrating and standardizing awide variety of technologies, and in bringingabout awareness amongst policy-makers, wastegenerators, and the general public.

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PCRA website (www.pcra.org) carries articles onenergy conservation.

The PCRA organizes seminars, technical meets,workshops, clinics, exhibitions and kisan melas(farmers’ fairs) for the dissemination of conservationmessages and demonstration of conservationtechniques and technologies. Its consumer meets bringtogether energy consumers, equipment manufacturersand energy consultants to solve the energyconservation problems and create awareness. ThePCRA also supports energy efficiency and energyservice companies (EECOs and ESCOs).

The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas has alsoinitiated the following innovative programmes:

� “Boond Boond ki Baat” (Story of Each Drop) is aradio programme launched in 2002-2003presenting highly technical matter in simplelanguage.

� “Khel Khel Mein Badlo Duniya” (Change theWorld through Simple Ways) is an educational TVprogramme for youth on the conservation ofenergy, water, environment, etc., and providingvocational guidance in vermiculture, integratedfarming, etc.

� Involving school children in agriculture surveysand science exhibitions in select districts of thecountry.

� Organization of two-wheeler rallies for womenduring the annual oil and gas conservation fortnightwith the twin aims of women empowerment andsensitivity towards oil and gas conservation.

Ministry of PowerThe Ministry of Power (MoP) is the coordinatingagency for matters relating to energy efficiency forall conventional energy sources. Various stepsinitiated by Ministry of Power in the field of energyconservation and building public awareness areenumerated below:

Energy Conservation Act, 2001: The EnergyConservation Act, 2001, reflects India’s commitmentto climate change efforts through efficient energyutilization. The Act focuses on the enormous potentialfor reducing energy consumption, by adopting energyefficiency measures in various sectors of the economy.

Under this Act, the Bureau of Energy Efficiency(BEE) has been created by merging the existingEnergy Management Centre (EMC). The functionsof the BEE include prescribing guidelines for energyconservation, creating consumer awareness anddisseminating information on the efficient use ofenergy.

The Ministry of Power has instituted National EnergyConservation Awards to recognize the participatingindustrial units that have made special efforts to reduceenergy consumption. In the last five years of aboveaward scheme, which is coordinated by the Bureauof Energy Efficiency, the participating industrial unitscollectively have saved 2397 million units of electricalenergy; 9067 kilo litre of furnace oil; 2.76 Mt of coaland 11,585 million cubic metre of gas per year,resulting in substantial reduction in greenhouse gasemissions.

CENPEEP: The National Thermal PowerCorporation (NTPC) of MoP, which today is thelargest power utility in the country, established theCentre for Power Efficiency and EnvironmentProtection (CENPEEP), a resource centre for state-of-the-art technologies and practices for performanceoptimization of thermal power plants. The CENPEEPwas awarded the CTI World Climate TechnologyAward for supporting the adoption of more efficientcoal-fired power plants in India. The Centre regularlyholds workshops and offers hands-on training forpower sector officials from the NTPC and SEBs.Dissemination of practices for improvement ofefficiency of existing coal based power stations wouldhelp abating CO2 emissions.

Mass Awareness: A multimedia mass awarenesscampaign was launched country wide by the MoP toenlist the active cooperation of all stakeholders forthe steps that have to be taken to improve the qualityof supply and service as well as for the policy changesthat are emerging to make the sector sustainable. Thisincluded awareness about the necessity of energysavings through energy conservation, therebyoffsetting the additional requirement of power(generated primarily through coal, the mainstay of theIndian power sector) and therefore reducing GHGemissions. Both the print and electronic media wasactively involved during the mass awareness

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and Technology supports and fosters research in thearea of atmospheric sciences, including meteorologyand climate change. This research provides theknowledge that informs policy, and forms the basisfor building sound strategies for sustainabledevelopment. It also forms the information base foroutreach and education programmes.

The DST established the Technology Information,Forecasting and Assessment Council (TIFAC), anautonomous organization, to monitor global trends,to formulate preferred technology options for India,promote key technologies and undertake technologyassessment and forecasting studies in selected areasof the national economy.

The TIFAC promotes and facilitates thecommercialization of Clean Energy Technologies. Itsoutreach activities include various TechnologyAssessment and Technomarket Survey Study reports,that help both industry and financial institutions.These reports are available on line on the TIFACwebsite (www.tifac.org.in). It also brings outtechnology linked business opportunity publicationson issues like techniques to improve the operationalefficiency of thermal power stations. The TIFAC alsoconducts awareness and training workshops.

Every year since 1988, the Science and EngineeringResearch Council (SERC) of DST has been supportingsummer/winter schools in emerging areas of Scienceand Technology at prestigious research andeducational institutions in the country. AdvancedPh.D. students are considered to be the appropriatetarget group. A programme of two to four weeksduration is conducted by a faculty comprising ofleading Indian scientists. Some of these programmesare in the area of atmospheric sciences, such as theone on Agro-meteorology (DST, 2000-2001).

The National Council for Science and TechnologyCommunication (NCSTC) under DST, and VigyanPrasar is an autonomous organization set up by theDST. The NCSTC undertakes various programmesand develops books, films and other resources forpopularizing science and technology. Several of theirefforts, although so far not strictly focused on climatechange awareness, have immense potential forpromoting the understanding about its various aspects(DST, 2001-2002).

programme. Information on various programmes/initiatives taken up by the Ministry of Power invarious areas of power sector are regularlydisseminated through print/electronic media, MoP’swebsite, workshops and conferences.

Training: The NTPC and other central PSUs underthe MoP regularly conduct environment awarenesstraining programmes for their employees. Further, theconcerned specialists working in various areas areregularly deputed for specialized training, study tours,conferences and workshops, to enable them to updatetheir knowledge and skills for overall improvementin the respective areas.

The Power Management Institute of NTPC organizestraining courses in the field of environment for itsemployees and other power utilities for generalawareness and improving their skills.

The Ministry of Power and central PSUs regularlyconduct national and international level workshops,and conferences on various aspects of power plantsto share best practices and to adopt efficient newtechnologies/systems and to stimulate discussion onkey issues. Two of the recently held conferences arelisted below:

� conference on ‘Coal and Electricity in India’ jointlyorganized by the MoP, Ministry of Coal andInternational Energy Agency (IEA), on 22 and 23September 2003 in New Delhi.

� international conference on ‘Thermal PowerGeneration—Best Practices and FutureTechnologies’ organized by the NTPC on 13-15October 2003 in New Delhi.

Ministry of Road Transport andHighwaysThe Ministry of Road Transport and Highways isresponsible for progressively introducing tighter autoemission norms and for the gradual alignment of autospecifications with the prevalent ECE standards, whiletaking into account the national requirements.

Ministry of Science and TechnologyThe key to a strong and efficient global action onclimate change lies in building an effective science -policy interface. The DST of the Ministry of Science

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Other InitiativesOther ministries and departments of the Governmentof India, and those of the states and UTs also havespecific programmes on awareness generation andeducation on the environment and sustainabledevelopment. For example, a drought proofing andsustainable livelihoods programme for decentralizedplanning was undertaken by UNDP-DFID and theGovernment of Orissa, implemented throughPanchayati Raj institutions. It involved the communityin deciding approaches to drought proofing andachieving livelihood sustainability. Such programmesaim at vulnerability reduction and environmentalsustainability, strengthen adaptation capability andtherefore, address climate change.

INDIAN INDUSTRY AND CLIMATECHANGE

The Indian industry has played a crucial role incontributing to India’s economic growth over the lastfew decades. However, as a major emitter of GHGand other pollutants, the industrial sector must be moresocially and environmentally responsible ( See Box5.3). In recent years, pressures generated bylegislation, consumer awareness and environmentalactivism including by the judiciary, have led to agrowing realization in this sector, that it makes

economic sense to adopt cleaner production andenergy efficient practices and technologies. Theindustry associations have played a significant rolein creating awareness among their members andfacilitating their access to information, technologies,and other mechanisms to help Indian industry becomeenvironmentally responsible. All the major industryassociations have climate change divisions and areinstrumental in spreading awareness about the linksbetween GHG emission abatement, energy efficiencyand global cooperative mechanisms. However, theimplementation and monitoring of these requirefurther strengthening.

Associated Chamber of Commerceand Industry of India (ASSOCHAM)The ASSOCHAM is the oldest apex chamber ofIndia and is actively involved in environmental andclimate change-related awareness generation, andcapacity building in the Indian industry. It hasrecently started Green Initiatives—providinginformation on issues such as cleaner productionoptions, ISO 14000, green ratings for the industry,greening supply chain, advanced EMS auditingcourse, environment legislation, pollution preventionand waste minimization, hazardous wastemanagement, and energy auditing.

Apart from these, there are many sector-specificindustry associations, such as the CementManufacturers Association, the Indian Sugar MillsAssociation, the All India Brick and TileManufacturers of India, the Society of IndianAutomobile Manufacturers, the Steel FurnaceAssociation of India, the All India Induction FurnaceAssociation, the All India Air Conditioning andRefrigeration Association, the All India Small PaperMills Association, the Jute ManufacturersDevelopment Council. These are involved at differentlevels in educating their members in climate-friendlydevelopment, energy efficiency improvement andcleaner technology initiatives.

There are also many bilateral and multilateralinitiatives in collaboration with the Indian industryfor information dissemination and awarenessgeneration on clean technology, process improvement,the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), industrialecology, corporate accounting of GHG emissions, etc.

A major initiative towards reducing the use ofOzone Depleting Substances (ODS) was taken byGodrej Industries Limited, a leading manufacturerof refrigerators in India. Godrej is nowmanufacturing Eco-fridges or environment-friendly fridges. The eco-fridge launched byGodrej Home Appliances under the brand namePentacool is the result of the combined effort ofGodrej and the NCL, Pune. The technology changeis based on the use of safe pentane technologyrather than choosing other harmful gases. Thegreen refrigerator concept is being used to createawareness among the consumers about the adverseeffect of harmful technology on the environment,and on the necessity of the adoption and use ofenvironment-friendly technology.

Box 5.3: Eco-fridge

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Some Indian Websites on Climate Change

Confederation of Indian IndustriesThe Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) strivesto strengthen the role of Indian industry in theeconomic development of the country while workingtowards its globalization and integration into the worldeconomy. The CII has established the CII ClimateChange Centre (also called 4C) whose main objectivesare to spread awareness of climate change issueswithin the Indian industry; promote consensus onclimate change flexibility mechanisms, particularlythe CDM; and to build local capacity to developclimate change mitigation projects.

The Centre has developed a website(www.ciionline.org/busserv/climatechange.html) andhas also set up searchable databases for informationdissemination. It organizes workshops and trainingprogrammes, and publishes books, reports, policypapers, newsletters and case studies. The websiteprovides information on issues such as mitigationopportunities in various sectors, and also helpsfacilitate partnerships with foreign collaborators.

In an effort to involve the industry in contributing toclimate change negotiations, 4C has organized severalevents to create awareness among industry leadersabout the implications of climate change for the Indian

industry, and about the flexibility mechanisms beingnegotiated. The Centre also helps facilitate linkagesbetween industries to promote the transfer of efficienttechnology with the help of foreign collaborators.

CII is a programme partner in the Greenhouse GasPollution Prevention Project-Climate ChangeSupplement, which aims to build local capacity andcreate a forum for greater dialogue and technicalcooperation between the US and Indian governmentsand other stakeholders (www.climatechangeindia.com). Some issues of the CII Newsletterhave focused on climate change. CII has also prepareda manual on Climate Change Project Developmentfor the industry.

Federation of Indian Chambers ofCommerce and IndustryThe Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce andIndustry (FICCI) has, over the years, influenced thecorporate sectors’ sensitivity to environmental issues.The Federation has taken notable initiatives towardsdisseminating information to Indian industry aboutclimate change mitigation.

FICCI has established an Environmental InformationCentre (EIC). The Centre aims at providing

Website Organization

http://envfor.nic.in/cc/index.htm Ministry of Environment & Forest (MoEF)http://sdnp.delhi.nic.in/resources/climatechange Ministry of Environment & Forest (MoEF)www.natcomindia.org NATCOM Project, MoEFwww.emcisee.com Ministry of Power and FICCIwww.teriin.org/climate The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI)www.ceeindia.org/greenhousegases Centre for Environment Education (CEE)www.cseindia.org Centre for Science and Environment (CSE)www.cleantechinitiative.com Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and

Industry (FICCI)www.ciionline.org/climatechange/index.html Confederation of Indian Industries (CII)www.climatechangecentre.org Development Alternatives (DA)www.cleantechindia.com Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and

Industry (FICCI)www.assocham.org/services/env The Associated Chamber of Commerce and Industry

of India (ASSOCHAM)www.developmentfirst.org/india Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabadwww.eeibs.com Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore

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comprehensive information about environmentregulations, technology options, guidelines andmanuals to enable Indian industry to becomeenvironmentally responsible and competitive. TheEIC has four regional centres in Mumbai, Hyderabad,Delhi, and Kolkata.

EIC is also assisting the Indian industry in reducingGHG emissions through the Clean TechnologyInitiative (CTI). Under this initiative it has establisheda website www.cleantechindia.com, which is thevirtual portal on ‘clean technology’ for the Indianindustry. It serves as a clearing house of organizedinformation for industry to address environmentalissues, including those related to climate change, andas a platform for information sharing onenvironmental issues and solutions.

FICCI, in collaboration with the MoP’s EnergyManagement Centre (EMC), has developed a web-based Information Service on Energy Efficiency(ISEE). The website www.emcisee.com is the portalfor EMC. It is the only Indian information service onthe Internet dedicated to disseminating technical andcommercial information to energy sector-relatedproducers, manufacturers and service providers,besides providing energy efficiency guidelines andbest practices manuals to the industry.

THE ROLE OF CIVIL SOCIETY

Several civil society initiatives have sought to buildcapacity and create awareness about climate-friendlyissues. Grassroot level activities are undertaken thatseek to improve the ability of communities to managetheir natural resources, generate sustainablelivelihoods, develop infrastructure and participate indecision making, thereby improving their capabilityto cope with climatic stresses. Creating awareness andempowering rural womenfolk is an importantinitiative by many NGOs in India. These includefacilitating creation and spread of grass root-level SelfHelp Groups.

Some leading professional organizations in India areinvolved in a wide range of climate change-relatedactivities—research, awareness generation, advocacy,capacity building, developing technologies,developing and implementing projects. ‘Adaptation’

initiatives at the grassroots level have emerged in avariety of ways: some are initiated, catalyzed,organized and supported by NGOs; some bycommunity-based organizations; and some are theefforts of individuals or groups who joined to tacklevexing local problems. Some of these initiatives tapresources through various development schemes ofthe government; some raise their own funds; whilebilateral or multilateral funding agencies andprogrammes support others. The work of some leadingNGOs is indicated below.

Centre for Environment EducationThe Centre for Environmental Education (CEE), is anational institute engaged in developing innovativeprogrammes and materials to increase awareness aboutthe environment among children, youth, the generalcommunity, and decision-makers. It was set up in1984 as a Centre of Excellence in EnvironmentalEducation, supported by the MoEF.

The CEE developed an information kit and a website(www.ceeindia.org/greenhousegases) on marketopportunities in trading emission reductions in GHGs.Through its News and Features Service (CEE-NFS),it disseminates environment- related news items,

Awareness generation in rural areas.

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features and articles every month for non-exclusiveuse to several newspapers and magazines all over thecountry.

Its Internship Programme in EnvironmentalJournalism, also offered through distance learningmode, has one module on climate change. The CEEalso runs a Certificate Course in EnvironmentalEducation in partnership with the IUCN and WWFInternational. The CEE maintains an EnvironmentEducation Bank, a computerized database ofenvironmental concepts, activities, case studies, andaccess information on books and other resources. Asa coordinating agency for GLOBE, CEE helped initiatethe programme by training teachers from schools allover the country, and developed activities to supportthe measurements related to weather and climate.

From 1995, the Rural Programmes Group of CEE hasplayed a catalytic role to empower communities in15 villages of Jasdan taluka in Gujarat, to upgradeand conserve their natural resources and undertakesustainable livelihood activities. These sustainabledevelopment activities contribute to enhancing theability of the communities to adapt to climate change.

Centre for Science and EnvironmentThe Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) is anindependent, public interest organization that aims toincrease public awareness on science, technology,environment and development. Established in 1980,today CSE is one of India’s leading environmentalNGOs specializing in sustainable natural resources

management. Its strategy of knowledge-basedactivism is supported by campaigns, research andpublications.

The CSE was one of the first organizations in India tobecome actively involved in creating awareness aboutclimate change through research, publications andadvocacy. It has sought to provide intellectualleadership by proposing strategies that will addressecology, economy, social justice and equity—the keyprinciples of good governance. In 1991, CSE raisedthe issue of equity in managing climate change withits publication Global Warming in an Unequal World.The CSE’s Global Environmental Governance (GEG)unit was created to educate civil society groups andgovernment bodies about the issues, politics andscience behind global environmental negotiations.

The CSE has also published the State of GlobalEnvironmental Negotiations (GEN) reports, whichuncovered the issues and politics involved in thesenegotiations. It has launched a campaign to establishan equitable framework for a system of globalenvironmental governance for climate changenegotiations, and has been playing an important roleat several international environmental negotiations.The GEG unit’s popular newsletter Equity Watch,published on-site at such meetings, carriesbackgrounders, analysis, fact sheets and opinion aboutthe climate change processes. The CSE also playedan active role at the COP-8. It organized several sideevents, made presentations, brought out specialeditions of Equity Watch, issued press releases, madepresentations and updated their website with newsabout the Conference.

CSE’s fortnightly magazine Down to Earth regularlycarries news and analyses of climate change issues,developments and events. From time to time, CSEalso issues press releases and publishes briefing papersdiscussing various issues of the climate change debate.CSE’s website www.cseindia.org has a section onclimate change.

Consumer Unity and Trust SocietyThe Consumer Unity and Trust Society (CUTS) wasestablished in 1983 as a consumer protectionorganization. Today, it works in several areas of publicinterest at the national, sub-continental and

Capacity building for sustainable agriculture: A CEEinitiative at Jasdan.

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international levels. Under sustainable consumption,CUTS is focusing its work on Chapter 4 of Agenda21. The endeavour is to understand and disseminatethe concept of sustainable consumption and also itsinter-linkages with other related areas, such povertyand climate change.

CUTS conducts campaigns, organizes events, andbrings out newsletters. Eco Consumer, its quarterlynewsletter, covers issues such as global warming,environment-friendly technologies and products.During COP-8, CUTS organized a workshop on the‘Impact of unsustainable production and consumptionpatterns on climate change: The role of consumergroups’.

Development AlternativesDevelopment Alternatives (DA) is a non-profitresearch, development and consultancy organizationestablished in 1983. The organization’s work includesdesign, development and dissemination of appropriatetechnologies, environmental resource managementmethods, and effective institutional systems. DA’soutreach activities seek to create awareness amongvarious stakeholders, such as NGOs, governmentagencies, industries, financial institutions, andcommunities on climate change issues. Its ClimateChange Centre (CCC) has developed training moduleson incorporating sustainable development concernsin climate change projects in India. Its IndustrialEnvironmental Systems Group works with, andorganizes, awareness and training workshops for thecorporate sector, and small and medium enterpriseson energy efficiency and resource conservation issues.The Urban Environment System Group has a nation-wide programme called CLEAN—India, to raiseawareness among schoolchildren and resident’swelfare associations about energy and resourceconservation, and mobilizing communities forresponse measures.

The CCC organized the ‘Inter-regional Conference onAdaptation to Climate Change’ prior to COP-8,attracting over a 100 participants from 20 countries.The Conference deliberated on increasing communityresilience for adaptation to climate change throughsustainable development. It also organized anexhibition on environmental activities of schoolchildren, and another on sustainable handicrafts and

other non-agricultural livelihood activities of self helpgroups.

The Energy and Resources InstituteTERI established in 1974, launched research activitieson climate change in 1988, making it one of the firstdeveloping country institutions to work in this field.Its Centre for Global Environment Research (CGER)conducts research and outlines policy initiatives thatintegrate developing country concerns in addressingglobal environmental challenges. TERI constantlystrives to spread awareness about climate changeamong the corporate sector ( See Box 5.4), civil

In March 2000, Business Today, a leading businessmagazine, and The Energy and Resources Institute(TERI) conducted a cross-country study to look atenvironmental practices in corporate India. It wasa study aimed at exploring how environmentallyconscious corporate India was. The study, whichlooked at about 50 companies, revealed that morethan three-quarters had an environmental policy.About 60 per cent had an environment department,and four out of every 10 had formal environmentcertification (ISO 14001).

The study also found that 20 per cent of thecompanies had an environmental policyoperational at both the corporate office and thefactory level, while in a majority of the others itwas either at the plant level or at the corporateoffice level. An environmental audit system wasalso in place in about 70 per cent of the companies.

The chemicals and pharmaceuticals sectors scoredhigh with respect to environmental consciousnessin comparison to the other sectors. The mineralsand mining sector also fared well, with greenpolicies prevalent at both the corporate office andplant level.

Overall, the findings reveal that businesses havefound that greening makes business sense. Theyare now increasingly investing in greenertechnologies, and almost half of the companiessurveyed planned to include environmentalimprovements in their expansion plans.

Box 5.4: Green Corporate

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society and decision-makers in India and other Asiancountries, through workshops, business meets andseminars, print publications and web dissemination.TERI also trains corporate managers on the risks andopportunities for sustainable business due to climatechange.

In the run-up to COP-8, TERI developed a climatechange website (http://envfor.delhi.nic.in/cc) for theMoEF. During COP-8, it assisted the ministry bycoordinating NGO events, and publishing a booktitled India: Climate Friendly Development and a filmcalled Global Warning. It also facilitated thedevelopment of a Children’s Charter on climatechange, which was presented to the COP-8 Plenary.

TERI’s website (www.teriin.org) has a climate changesection, which provides updated information withparticular reference to India. TERI has recently setup a website (http://edugreen.teri.res.in), which helpsschoolchildren and their teachers explore theenvironment through games and activities related toseveral topics including climate change. TERIpublishes three research journals, three digest journals,eight newsletters, one bi-monthly e-magazine, onedata book, and two online databases. TERI haspublished more than 20 print and online publicationsspecifically on climate change. To date, TERI hasproduced 11 documentary films on topics rangingfrom rural resources to global warming, boundtogether by a common message that environmentalproblems can only be overcome by people’s initiativeand participation.

Winrock International IndiaWinrock International India (WII) is a non-profitorganization working in the areas of natural resourcemanagement, clean energy and climate change. TheClimate Change Programme at WII specificallyaddresses the challenge of climate change, workingat the intersections of renewable energy and naturalresources management. WII was the FacilitatingAgency to the MoEF for preparing India’s InitialNational Communication (NATCOM) to theUNFCCC.

WII has a strong outreach programme whoserepertoire of activities includes publications, educationprogrammes, awareness and educational workshops

including skill-oriented training for decision-makers,study tours, stakeholder partnerships and exchanges,press coverage and electronic communication. Itswebsite (www.renewingindia.org) is one of the fewportals in India focusing on renewable energy andthe environment. WII also operates the(www.irenetindia.org) site that answers questions onpromoting the use of renewable energy in the ruralsector in India. In addition to publishing severalnewsletters, most of them to renewable energy.

Other community-based initiativesCommunity development, knowledge sharing andgrass root-level communication for rural people areimportant initiatives for a predominantly rural societylike India. There are many NGOs in India that areworking on strengthening the adaptive capacity ofpoor people to various stresses, including climatechange, through education, training, public awarenessand demonstration projects. It is not possible to listall of their efforts and achievements here, but theyare making a positive change at the grass root-level.There are many successful experiments in India onincreasing community resilience to stresses of variouskinds, through shared local efforts. One such exampleis the rural electrification through a micro-hydelproject at Thulappally in Kerala, undertaken by theMalanadu Development Society ( See Box 5.5 ). Notonly has the project provided electricity to 160households in this remote village, it has also led tocapacity building of local people in community powermanagement and energy conservation, reduced theirdependence on the neighbouring forest for fuel wood,reduced deforestation, prevented carbon emissionsthat electricity from a thermal power plant would havegenerated, and also improved the quality of life ofthe villagers.

One of the best-known examples of rural developmentand self-reliance in India is that of Ralegaon Siddhi.This barren and drought-stricken village inMaharashtra has been transformed throughcommunity efforts, facilitated by a simple man calledAnna Hazare. He made sure that each villager had astake in the prosperity of the village. Throughparticipatory decision making and collective action, andthe selective tapping of government schemes, thevillage today is prosperous and self-reliant, and canwithstand even years of harsh drought.

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Bounded by the River Pampa on one side, and thedense Sabarimala forests on the others, Thulapallyin Kerala was till recently, fairly secluded from therest of the world. Agriculture is the mainstay of thelocal economy and the land holdings are small andmarginal. Animal husbandry is practised as asupplementary activity. There are mostly homestead-type farms, and houses are scattered across the village.Most of the domestic fuel needs are met by fuelwood.

The Malanadu Development Society (MDS) is alocal NGO that has been working in this area forsome time. Due to MDS facilitation, a 12-km stretchof road, and two major causeways across the rivershave been built. All of this has helped in thedevelopment of the village, but the communitycontinued to feel the lack of electricity, as Thulapallywas not connected to the main grid line, because itwas too far away from it. It was in the late 1990sthat the people of Thulapally requested the NGO tohelp them do something about bringing electricpower to the village.

Power to the PeopleThe Society’s technical personnel surveyed thevillage and, on the basis of their study, felt that itwould be possible to generate electricity through amicro-hydel project here. This suggestion wasdiscussed at length with the local community. Afterseveral rounds of discussion they were convinced ofits benefits and a local Committee was set up for theimplementation of the project. Several sub-committeeswere formed to look after specific aspects likeorganizing people and collecting materials.

The financial resources came largely from the UNDPunder the Small Grants Programme. The communitytoo contributed. As the project beneficiaries wereidentified at the beginning of the project, it becameeasier for the MDS to seek their contributions forinfrastructure, labour and other materials requiredfor the construction activities in the project. Coconutpoles were provided by the people to function aslamp-posts. The project gathered steam, and within50 days, the people had power!

Box 5.5: From Darkness to Light About 146 houses were given connections, aswell as 10 shops and establishments, and fiveinstitutions. Each house was allowed fourCompact Fluorescent Lamps. Additionally, 25houses were given power for television sets.Electricity was to be supplied for about six hourseveryday, and a monthly charge of Rs 50 (aboutUS$1) per household with four lamps was levied.The generators have a total installed capacity of20 KW.

Almost overnight, the quality of life in the villagechanged. Quite apart from the immediate benefits,several long-term benefits are anticipated: a positiveimpact on the health of women, because of theirreduced exposure to indoor air pollution; the long-term impact on educational attainments of thechildren of the village, who can now pursue theirstudies more easily; and reduced dependence onfirewood from the nearby forests.

The management of the project is entirely in thehands of the local community. The technicalmaintenance of the generator is done by trained localyouth. If there are problems in the distributionsystem, they are set right by the local electrician.There is a General Body of all power consumersthat makes the policies and is the final authority.The General Body elects a nine-member ExecutiveCommittee that looks after the management andadministration of the project.

If replication is the test of success, this initiative isindeed successful. In the nearby Moolakayamvillage, 28 families now have electricity generatedthrough a similar initiative. In far away Idukkidistrict, a similar micro-hydel project has been built,benefitting 51 families.

Small and mini-hydro power projects which havethe potential to provide energy in remote and hillyareas, where extension of the grid system isuneconomical, is one of the thrust areas of theGovernment of India. By 2001, 420 small hydropower projects (up to 25 MW station capacity), witha total capacity of over 1423 MW, had beenestablished in the country.

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Another outstanding example is of work catalyzed bythe Tarun Bharat Sangh (TBS), a voluntaryorganization, in reviving a traditional system of waterharvesting in the drought prone Alwar district ofRajasthan state in western India, where thegroundwater table had receded below recoupablelevels. In 1985-1986, a severe drought hit theregion, adding to the already bleak situation ofvanishing livelihoods and mass migration.Convinced that one way to improve the situationwould be to revive traditional practices that hadsustained semi-arid Alwar and its populace in thepast, TBS mobilized community action to revive theJohad (an earthen bund or check dam to conserverainwater). Today more than 4,000 Johads are totallymanaged by the community. The changes broughtabout have been dramatic. Wells have been recharged;food production and biomass productivity haveincreased; the per capita income has also risen in theregion. The effort has even brought back to life tworivers, the Aravari and Ruparel, which are perennialonce more.

The government promotes and facilitates the adoptionof information and communication technologies inrural areas, including Internet services. These areexpected to provide information and knowledgecentres to the rural population for activities, such asagricultural consultation, market information andhealth services.

THE ROLE OF THE MASS MEDIA

The press and other mass media play a vital role inhelping inform the public about climate changeproblems and their possible solutions.

Print MediaAn analysis of news clippings on climate change inIndia Green File for the period 1995 to 2002, showsthat whereas till 2001, the number of items on climatechange fluctuated within a range and did not showany significant trend, in 2002 there was a major spurt.In the period leading up to COP-8 held in New Delhiin 2002, the MoEF and some NGOs organized specialbriefings for the media to facilitate informed reporting.The Press Information Bureau, a government-ownednews agency, issued at least two-dozen press releasesduring and immediately before COP-8.

The CSE’s fortnightly magazine Down To Earth hascarried the highest number of articles related to climatechange of any periodical in India. These articles dealtwith the Kyoto Protocol and international climatechange negotiations (19 per cent); GHG emissionabatement activities and strategies (11 per cent);general reporting on climate change and related issues(37 per cent); and reports on scientific studies andresearch (33 per cent). Among the mainstream English-language newspapers scanned by India Green File,The Hindu carried the maximum number of climatechange news and articles. Among the financialnewspapers, Business Standard had the highestcoverage.

Electronic MediaSo far, the electronic media in India does not appearto have paid much attention to issues related to climatechange. However, Development Alternativesproduced 32 episodes of a weekly environment andbusiness magazine called ‘The Green Show’ for threesatellite channels. Several of the episodes weredirectly or indirectly related to climate change. Asimilar series of 30-minutes duration wascommissioned and telecast on Doordarshan, India’snational television service. TERI has produced 11documentary films, some on energy and one on globalwarming, which were telecast on prime time nationalnetwork as TERRAVIEW.

However, the access of Indian television viewers, isnot limited only to Indian channels. Internationalchannels such as National Geographic, Discovery, aswell as news channels such as BBC and CNN are alsoan important source of information aboutenvironmental issues and debates. Figures 5.2, 5.3and 5.4 indicates the increasing trends of appearanceof climate change issues in various media.

Figure 5.2: Trend of climate change reporting inIndia since early 1990s.

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programmes and materials to address localenvironmental concerns. A few NGOs specializing inclimate change and energy research have createdprogrammes specifically on climate change. Some ofthese initiatives and ideas are gradually becoming partof the formal education system.

The Indian government has launched severalenvironmental education initiatives, in addition toproviding funding support to NGOs for suchactivities. Some examples of education andoutreach efforts by the government and NGOsaimed specifically at climate change, energyefficiency, renewable energy and related issues, aredescribed below.

Non-formal Education and Outreach

GLOBEIn 2000, India joined the GLOBE programme, whichis coordinated in India by the MoEF. This hands-on,Internet-based science and education programme linksstudents, teachers and scientists in nearly a 100countries. Students collect data on variousenvironmental parameters related to atmosphere,water, soil and vegetation, and report their data to theGLOBE website. These observations, in conjunctionwith related learning activities, enhance the students’understanding of the earth as a system and factorsregulating its climate.

Figure 5.4: Climate change articles reported infinancial dailies.

Figure 5.3: Number of articles on Climate changereported in news papers.

Climate Change Outreach forChildrenEnvironmental education, both through the formal andnon-formal routes, is an important medium for creatingawareness about climate change among children andyouth. India today has a formal policy framework andan institutional structure in place, through whichenvironmental education is being promoted.

The National Education Policy, 1986, addressed thesignificance of environmental orientation to educationat all levels. Guided by this policy, the NationalCouncil of Educational Research and Training(NCERT) and the Departments of Education invarious states of India have been working toincorporate environmentally relevant components inthe curricula and textbooks. Simultaneously, NGOsall over the country have developed innovative

Students recording temperature data at a GLOBE school’sweather station.

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Petroleum ConservationThe Petroleum Conservation Research Association(PCRA) has been actively involved in promotingawareness about conserving petroleum products.Many of its activities and messages are also targettedat children. PCRA’s website (www.pcra.org/children)has a section specifically designed to educate childrenabout petroleum conservation.

Pollution MonitoringThe CSE was one of the first organizations to activelywork towards creating awareness about climatechange among all sections of society, includingchildren. The CSE has established a PollutionMonitoring Laboratory to monitor and analyze theambient air quality of schools in Delhi. The project,carried out by the city’s school children and youth,generates awareness among them about the localenvironment and helps them to better understandissues related to GHG and climate change. The CPCBand the Delhi government also help to createawareness among the general public and students onvehicular pollution.

PROBEThe DST has launched a scheme called theParticipation of youth in Real time/field Observationto Benefit Education (PROBE) linking students,teachers and the scientists in the collection of data onvarious meteorological observations. Theprogramme was launched in 2002, in the state ofUttaranchal in a 100 schools. One objective of this

programme is to create a database on meteorology,climate, natural resources and related fields, so as toimprove the scientific understanding of weather andclimate and their local impact in mountain regions.

NEAC and NGCThe National Environment Awareness Campaign(NEAC), launched by the MoEF in 1986, seeks tocreate environmental awareness among students,youth, teachers and rural populations. The NationalGreen Corps (NGC) is another initiative by the MoEFto involve students in environmental action projects,thereby enhancing their understanding of andinvolvement in environmental issues.

Awareness on Renewable EnergyThe MNES has been instrumental in creating publicawareness on various renewable energy sources andenergy efficiency devices. Most of their outreachprogrammes are targetted at the general public,including children. The MNES organizes drawing,poster, working model and essay competitions onrenewable energy, and has made a special effort toinclude mentally and physically challenged childrenin these competitions. It has also set up Energy Parksat several locations in the country, in order to createawareness among people, particularly students, aboutthe use and benefits of renewable energy systems anddevices.

Science and Technology PopularizationThe National Council for Science and TechnologyCommunication (NCSTC) has been organizing andsupporting numerous science exhibitions, fairs, streetplays etc., on various themes for students across thecountry. One such event was a two-day awarenessprogramme on the weather, environment and climate,organized by Karnataka Rajya Vijnana Parishad andthe Indian Meteorological Society (IMS), Bangalore,in July 2001. Nearly 2,500 students and 500 teachersfrom 200 local schools attended the programme. Theprogramme included displays by the ISRO and bythe Disaster Management Cell of the IMD.

The NCSTC’s science and technology popularizationprogramme on the ‘Application of Science andTechnology in Industry’ sensitizes students to various‘clean’ industrial technologies and energy efficiencymechanisms, by facilitating visits to industrial units.

Awareness generation on vehicular emissions amongstchildren.

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School Energy ProjectAs part of the School Energy Project, eco-clubmembers in Ahmedabad started action projects aimedat reducing energy bills in their schools and homes.‘Energy Rooms’ have been set up in participatingschools, which house posters, models, and otherresources for creating awareness among students onissues related to energy, such as the need to conservefossil fuel, and control particulate and GHGemissions. The CEE organizes the Clean GreenProgramme every summer and students oftenundertake action projects on energy conservation.

PublicationsThe CSE brings out Gobar Times, a science andenvironment magazine for children. The post COP-8issue of Gobar Times focused on climate change.TERI has published a book titled Making Sense ofClimate Change, meant primarily to raise theawareness of secondary school students about climatechange. Winrock International India (WII) brings outa newsletter named REsource on renewable energyeducation meant for secondary-level students andteachers. The newsletter disseminates information onthe use and potential of clean renewable energytechnology and encourages schools’ involvement andinterest in this sector.

WebsitesWebsites such as EduGreen (http://edugreen.teri.in)helps students and their teachers explore theenvironment through games and activities relatedto topics such as air pollution, energy, and climatechange. Similarly, portals that deal exclusivelywith issues on energy and environment andrenewable energy for school children arewww.renewingindia.org/edu.html andwww.winrockindia.org/child/index.htm, which alsohave a section on climate change. These websites havebeen developed by several NGOs.

Activities at COP-8The CSE also assisted students to produce a specialedition of Gobar Times during COP-8, in whichchildren interviewed delegates and reported on thevarious events. During COP-8, school and collegestudents organized a demonstration and a protestmarch demanding the reduction in CO2 emissions andequal per capita entitlements to the atmosphere.

Almost 120 students from 25 schools of Delhi prepareda Children’s Charter on Climate Change, which theypresented to the COP-8 Plenary. The MoEF and theUnited Nation’s Environment Programme supportedthe event.

CLIMATE CHANGE IN HIGHEREDUCATION

A judicial directive by the Supreme Court of India in1991, mandated environmental education at everylevel of formal education. A growing number ofuniversities and technical institutions are offeringfoundation courses that will sensitize students toenvironmental issues, including climate change.However, the need is being increasingly felt for specialcourses in different professional disciplines. Forexample, businesses are feeling the pressures ofenvironmental legislation and the need forenvironmentally responsible management practices.Recognizing this trend several business schools inIndia, as also elsewhere, have already introducedenvironmental management courses in their MBAcurriculum, with the IIM, Ahmedabad (IIMA) andIIM, Bangalore taking the lead.

Agriculture EducationThe Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI) isIndia’s premier national institute for agriculturalresearch, education and extension. The Division ofPlant Physiology at IARI offers a course on GlobalClimate Change in the second trimester of its Mastersprogramme, and has been conducting research on theimpacts of climate change on crop productivity.

Education for Civil ServantsThe Lal Bahadur Shastri National Academy ofAdministration at Mussoorie, is the Government ofIndia’s premier training institution for higher civilservices in the country. The Academy is introducinga clean energy curriculum that will focus onsustainable energy management and its linkages withGHG emissions, public administration, economicsand management.

Initiatives at UniversitiesClimate change is an active focus of activities at theJadavpur University (JU) in Kolkata. The Departmentof Economics offers a masters-level course on

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Resource and Environmental Economics, with a climatechange component. The M.Phil. programme inEnvironmental Studies also deals with climate change.At the Ph.D. level, at least five research projects are inprogress on climate change issues across variousdisciplines. The University has set up a GlobalChange Programme that proposes to start ateaching programme at the M.Phil. level on globalchange issues. It also conducts refresher coursesfor university and college teachers in economics,environmental economics, environmental science,power engineering, and international relations. Allthese courses have introduced a component onclimate change issues over the past three to four years.

Management EducationIn pursuance of the objective of greening highereducation, the MoEF has taken the initiative tointroduce and enhance the environment content inbusiness and management education. Under thisinitiative, three consultative workshops have beenconducted so far and a website (http://www.eeibs.com/) has been launched to infuseenvironmental concepts into management education.

A review of the syllabi of environmental coursesalready being offered at some leading managementschools in India such as the IIM at Bangalore andKolkata shows that climate change is already part ofsome of the courses. Climate change research has beena major focus of the energy and environment policystudies at the Public Systems Group of the IIM,Ahmedabad. At least half a dozen students at IIMAare currently working on climate change-related topicsfor their doctoral research, and several have workedon such topics in the past decade.

ResearchMany eminent researchers in India have contributedand are contributing to climate change research. Theircontribution to various reports of IPCC is significant.Similarly, many premier institutes, including IIMs,IITs and IISc, are involved in climate change research.Most of these research teams have participated in thepreparation of this document. The research focus atthe Centre for Ecological Studies, IISc, Bangalore hasbeen on the impact of climate change on forests andnatural ecosystems in India, on tracking carbon flowin Indian forests, the potential of forestry as a climate

mitigation option, and the economic and institutionalaspects of forestry mitigation options and adaptationto climate change.

The IIM, Ahmedabad is the premier institute in India,with collaborations with the best research teams inthe world, on economy-energy-environmentmodelling research. The Indira Gandhi Institute ofDevelopment Research (IGIDR) is an advancedresearch institute established in Mumbai by the RBI,for carrying out research on development issues froma multi-disciplinary point of view. It offers PhD andM. Phil. programmes on environmental studies,including climate change issues. The IGIDR also offersspecial lectures and short courses on climate change.

The Centre for Global Change Research, a unit of theRadio and Atmospheric Sciences Division at theNational Physical Laboratory, New Delhi, conductsresearch in several aspects of climate change, and alsooffers a doctoral programme.

TERI School of Advanced Studies, set up in 1999, isevolving as a research university. The three Centresof the School namely, the Centre for Energy andEnvironment, the Centre for Bioresources andBiotechnology, and the Centre for Regulatory andPolicy Research, offer doctoral programmes in theirrespective fields, which also include research on issuessuch as forestry and climate change, and policydevelopment in energy, climate change, andtransportation.

Technical EducationDue to the interface of climate change with energy, atseveral institutions, climate change becomes a partof courses or programmes on Clean EnergyTechnologies and Renewable Energy as at the IIT,Delhi (IITD). The Department of AtmosphericSciences at IITD is involved in scientific andtechnological aspects of climate change research suchas climate modelling. The School of Management atIIT, Bombay focusses on research on the impacts ofclimate change. There are many more universities andinstitutes that have ongoing research on variousaspects of climate change. Many of these haveparticipated in preparing India’s Initial NationalCommunication to the UNFCCC.

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CONCLUSION

Based on the review of the existing programmes, someareas that need strengthening are: the link betweenresearch output and outreach input; a focusedinclusion of climate change in academic curricula atvarious levels; a more active involvement of massmedia in covering climate change issues; and theintegration of climate change concerns into consumereducation. The initiatives to create awareness amongthe industry also need to be stepped up to reach everyindustrial estate and unit in the country.

The need is obviously to go beyond current effortsby strengthening, expanding and sustainingoutreach and capacity-building efforts. It isnecessary not only to create a requisite level ofawareness and set up information systems, but alsoto establish and insti tutionalize adequatemechanisms to ensure access to information, andalso to build the capacity required for taking necessaryaction. Therefore, the task requires a multi-prongedand multi-layered approach, linking together of severalplayers and stakeholders, and adequate sustainedfinancial resources.

Effective action by the industrial sector, for example,would require creating awareness among not onlylocal industrial associations and individual units, butalso among the financial institutions who would fundinitiatives to support clean technologies and GHGemission abatement options; consultants to industryto enable them to build emission concerns andemission trading options into their plans andstrategies for their clients; lawyers specializing inindustrial law so that they can advise their clientsabout compliance issues and penalties ordisincentives, as well as incentives; businessjournalists who can contribute by their reports and

analyses of government policies and mitigationoptions; enforcement officials of the central and statePollution Control Boards; and policy-makers whomake industrial policies; and even legislators.

To create awareness in these groups would requirestructures and mechanisms. Integration of climatechange issues and laws within the curriculum, andseminars and training programmes organized by theBar Associations or other professional bodies, couldbe the pre-service and in-service routes for creatingawareness and understanding among lawyers; mediabriefings, internships with environmentalorganizations, scholarships or sponsorships forfocused research, and policies of the business mediacould be the routes for increasing the involvement ofbusiness journalists.

Outreach efforts of consumer societies, manufacturersof climate-friendly products, advertising agencies, theactivation of the Ecomark scheme, and the GreenRating of products and their wide publicity, wouldcontribute towards educating consumers to rejectproducts that are not climate friendly in theirmanufacture, use or disposal. In addition, print andelectronic media have an important role to play ininfluencing individuals and society.

The capacity of the present networks and institutionalstructures requires strengthening and enhancement.Several government agencies, professional bodies,NGOs and other civil society organizations arealready involved in outreach and capacity-buildingefforts, and thus have the experience to continue andexpand such efforts. There are possibilities to developa synergistic framework of partnerships, drawing uponthe expertize, experience and sectoral reach of its owninstitutional structure and others, some of whom maynot be key players at present.

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SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENTAND NATIONAL PLANNING

The single most important feature of our post-colonialexperience is that the people of India haveconclusively demonstrated their ability to forge aunited nation despite its diversity, and to pursuedevelopment within the framework of a functioning,vibrant and pluralistic democracy. In this process, thedemocratic institutions have put down firm roots,which continue to gain strength and spread.

A planned approach to development has been thecentral process of the Indian democracy, as reflectedin the national five-year plans, departmental annualplans, and perspective plans of various ministries ofthe central and state governments. For the last fiveand a half decades, the guiding objectives of the Indianplanning process have been sustained economicgrowth, poverty alleviation, food, health, educationand shelter for all, containing population growth,employment generation, self-reliance, people’sparticipation in planning and programmeimplementation, and infrastructure development.

India is presently engaged with the Tenth Five-YearPlan, having achieved considerable progress duringthe previous nine five-year plans and three annualplans. The planning process in India aims to increasewealth and human welfare, while simultaneouslyconserving the environment. The national planningprocess lays emphasis on the promotion of people’sparticipatory institutions and social mobilization,particularly through the empowerment of women, toensure the environmental sustainability of thedevelopment process.

The growth of the Indian economy in the last twodecades has led to a renewed emphasis on achievingsignificant reduction in poverty and providing basic

minimum services like drinking water, health andeducation for all its citizens. Although India is still inthe low-income category, with a per capita GDP ofUS$ 462 in comparison to US$ 911 for China, US$1,270 for the developing countries, US$ 22,149 forOECD countries, US$ 35,277 for the US, and US$5,133 for the world in the year 2001 (UNDP, 2002),India’s skilled labour force, strong technicalcapabilities and increasing openness to economicreforms, have raised the potential for sustained fastereconomic growth.

India’s poverty alleviation programmes over the yearshave focused on a variety of approaches. In the initialyears of developmental planning, poverty wasconsidered as essentially a rural problem and thestrategies adopted focused on agriculturaldevelopment and providing employment to the poorin rural areas. Specific programmes such as the SmallFarmer’s Development Agency (SFDA), theProgramme for Marginal Farmers and AgriculturalLabourers (MFAL), the Drought-Prone AreaProgramme (DPAP), the Integrated RuralDevelopment Programme (IRDP), and theDevelopment of Women and Children in Rural Areas(DWCRA), were launched. Based on past experienceswith urban poverty alleviation programmes, anintegrated programme called ‘Swarna Jayanti ShahariRozgar Yojana’ (SJSRY) was launched in 1997,streamlining all the earlier efforts of employmentgeneration and slum development in urban areas.Similarly, the different employment programmes forthe rural areas have been brought under the umbrellaof ‘Sampoorna Gramin Rozgar Yojana’ (SGRY)in 2001.

The rural population requires banking services thatare accessible and flexible in terms of the banktimings, in order to minimize transaction costs. In thiscontext, micro-finance programmes have emerged as

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effective instruments of poverty alleviation in India.The Self Employed Women’s Association (SEWA)and other micro-finance institutions have devisedinnovative credit programmes to address marketfailures and to deliver credit to the poor. Theseprogrammes use peer monitoring and a joint-liabilitystructure to overcome the screening, monitoring andenforcement problems commonly encountered byformal lending institutions. They facilitate small loansto poor borrowers, often women organized into smallgroups, providing more accessible deposit facilitiesand with much greater attention to risk management.

Micro-finance could also be an advantageous way ofintroducing new information and communicationtechnologies (ICT) in developing countries,contributing to reducing transaction costs and the

digital gap. The Indian experience of ICT in the micro-finance sector is a unique and constant interplaybetween the diversity in the Indian micro-financeinstitutions. The benefits of the Internet to enhancemicro-finance facilities, extending agriculturalconsultations and market information to farmers, andexpert medical advice facilities to the vast ruralpopulation, are unquestionable to a country with over600,000 villages. Self Help Groups (SHGs) providean excellent facilitation mechanism for micro- financein the Indian context. The process of organizingwomen into SHGs began in the late 1990s. The SmallIndustries Development Bank of India (SIDBI), theNational Bank of Agriculture and Rural Development(NABARD), the Rashtriya Mahila Kosh (RMK) andmany Zilla Parishads have emerged as importantplayers in the promotion of micro-finance throughSHGs in India.

Agriculture is a critical component of Indiansustainable developmental policies, since more than650 million people depend on agriculture. The GreenRevolution during the 1970s made India self-sufficient in food production through increasedagricultural output based on high-yielding seeds,irrigation and fertilizers. At present, Indian agricultureis more intensive with regard to the use of inputs perhectare of land. The National Agricultural Policy(2000) seeks to achieve an output growth in excessof four per cent per year in a manner that istechnologically, environmentally and economicallysustainable. The five thrust areas for agricultureare to:

� Raise the cropping intensity of the existingagricultural land.

� Develop other rural infrastructure that supports notonly agriculture, but also all rural economicactivities.

� Develop and disseminate agricultural technologies.� Diversify agricultural products, both

geographically and over time.� Reverse the declining trend of public investment

in agriculture.

The Indian government has recently introduced abroad-based ‘National Agriculture Insurance Scheme’(NAIS), which is an improvement on the existingComprehensive Crop Insurance Scheme (CCIS). The

Women empowerment through Self Help Groups.

Information and communication technology can contributetremendously to rural development.

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environmental framework aims to take cognizance ofthe longer-term environmental perspective related toindustrialization, power generation, transportation,mining, agriculture, irrigation and other sucheconomic activities, as well as to address parallelconcerns related to public health and safety.

The statutory framework for the environment includesthe Indian Forest Act, 1927, the Water (Preventionand Control of Pollution) Act, 1974, the Air(Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1981, TheForest (Conservation) Act, 1980, and the Environment(Protection) Act, 1986. Other enactments include thePublic Liability Insurance Act, 1991, the NationalEnvironment Tribunal Act, 1995, and the NationalEnvironment Appellate Authority Act, 1997. Thecourts have also elaborated on the concepts relatingto sustainable development, and the ‘polluter pays’and ‘precautionary’ principles. In India, matters ofpublic interest, particularly pertaining to theenvironment, are articulated effectively through avigilant media, an active NGO community, and veryimportantly, through the judicial process which hasrecognized the citizen’s right to a clean environmentas a component of the right to life and liberty.

Forest conservation and enhancement are the statedobjectives of national policy. Various policy initiativeshave resulted in the increase of forest cover and areduction in the per capita deforestation rate. TheNational Forests Policy envisages peoples’participation in the development of degraded foreststo meet their fuel, fodder and timber needs, as well asto develop the forests for improving the environmentthrough joint forest management (JFM). India hasimplemented a large number of progressive policies,programmes and measures to conserve and developthe forests, wildlife, mangroves and coral reefs, suchas: the Forest Conservation Act (1980), the NationalForest Policy (1988), the Wildlife Act, JFM, SocialForestry, banning of timber extraction in reserveforests, the improved cook-stove programme, andbiogas to conserve fuelwood. Similarly, there areconservation programmes for mangroves, coral reefsand lake ecosystems. The National WastelandDevelopment Board is responsible for re-generatingdegraded non-forest and private lands. The NationalAfforestation and Eco-Development Board isresponsible for regenerating degraded forest lands,

NAIS is available all over the country, coveringdiverse crops (food, horticultural, oilseeds andcommercial), all farmers (small and marginal, loaneeand non-loanee), and all yield losses due to natural,non-preventable risks. The premium rates vary from1.5 to 3.5 per cent on the sum insured on food graincrops and oilseed crops and on an actuarial basis forannual commercial/horticultural crops. To meet claimsbeyond the liability of the insurance agency, a corpusfund is created with contributions from theGovernment of India and the participating states ona 1:1 basis. During the Tenth Plan (2002–2007), it isproposed to set up a National Crop InsuranceCorporation to take over all the crop insurancefunctions.

The National Conservation Strategy and PolicyStatement on Environment and Development, 1992,provides the basis for the integration of environmentalconsiderations in the policies of various sectors. Itaims at the achievement of sustainable lifestyles andthe proper management and conservation of resources.The Policy Statement for Abatement of Pollution,1992, stresses the prevention of pollution at the source,based on the ‘polluter pays’ principle. It encouragesthe use of the most appropriate technical solutions,particularly for the protection of heavily polluted areasand river stretches. The Forest Policy, 1988, highlightsenvironmental protection through preservation andrestoration of the ecological balance. The policy seeksto substantially increase the forest cover in the countrythrough afforestation programmes. This

Modernizing agriculture is an important developmentalpriority.

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the land adjoining forest areas, as well as ecologicallyfragile areas. The Forest Survey of India monitorschanges in the forest area. All these measures haveled to some stabilization of the forest area, a reductionin deforestation, afforestation, significantlycontributing to conservation of the forest carbon sink.All these preparations will act as a buffer for the forest-dependent communities against the challenges posedby climate change.

India is fortunate to be endowed with both exhaustible(particularly coal) and renewable energy resources.Despite the resource potential and the significant rateof growth in energy supply over the last few decades,India faces serious energy shortages. This has led toan increasing reliance on imports to meet the growingoil and coal demand. The Tenth Plan strategy for theenergy sector includes increasing the production ofcoal and electricity, accelerated exploration forhydrocarbons, equity oil abroad, introduction ofreforms through restructuring/deregulation of theenergy sector to increase efficiency, demand

management through the introduction of energyefficient technologies/processes and appliances. Theprocess of producing, transporting and consumingenergy has a significant impact on the environment.The pollution abatement processes will form animportant part of the development of the energy sector.

India often faces natural calamities like floods,cyclones and droughts, which occur fairly frequentlyin different parts of the country. Sometimes, the samearea is subjected to both floods and droughts insuccessive seasons or years. About 85 per cent of thecountry’s total area is vulnerable to one or moredisasters, and about 57 per cent of the area lies inhigh seismic zones, including the national capital.While not all natural calamities can be predicted andprevented, a state of preparedness and the ability torespond quickly to a natural calamity can considerablymitigate loss of life and property and restore normalcyat the earliest. Therefore, the Government of Indiahas formulated detailed plans of action to deal withcontingencies that arise in the wake of naturalcalamities, which are periodically updated. Detailedplans are formulated up to the district level.

The last decade of the 20 century has seen a visibleshift in the focus of development planning—from themere expansion of production of goods and services,and the consequent growth of per capita income—toplanning for the enhancement of human well-being,more specifically to ensure that the basic materialrequirements of all sections of the population are metand that they have access to basic social services, suchas health and education. A specific focus on thesedimensions of social development is necessarybecause experience shows that economic prosperity,measured in terms of per capita income alone, doesnot always ensure enrichment in the quality of life,as reflected, for instance, in the social indicators onhealth, longevity, literacy and environmentalsustainability. The latter must be valued as outcomesthat are socially desirable in themselves and, hence,made direct objectives of any development process.(Box 6.1 and 6.2) They are also valuable inputs tosustain the development process in the long run.

In order to ensure the balanced development of allstates, the Tenth Plan includes a state-wise break-upof the broad developmental targets, including targets

India has Disaster Management Plans for naturalcalamities.

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for growth rates and social development, which areconsistent with the above national targets. Thesestate-specific targets take into account the potentialneeds and constraints present in each state and thescope for improvement in their performance, giventhese constraints.

At the dawn of the new millennium, the Tenth Planprovides an opportunity to build upon the gains ofthe past and also to address the weaknesses that haveemerged. The role of the government has to beredefined to that of a facilitator and developer ofspecific infrastructure such as rural infrastructure androad development. In other infrastructure sectors, forexample, telecommunications, power, ports, etc., theprivate sector can play a much greater role, supportedby an appropriate policy framework.

The process of development encompasses broadersocietal issues than merely economic growth. Theconventional paradigm of economic development,which was woven around the optimal resourceallocation, is now extended to include participativeprocesses, local initiatives and global interfaces. Thenew vision views welfare as the raison d’etre ofdevelopment. Under the emergent developmentperspective, while efficient resource allocation is bestaddressed by market mechanisms, the institutions arealso a key component in a nation’s capacity to useresources optimally. Thus, the institutions and policieshave an important role in welfare maximizingdevelopment. The strong link between government

� Reducing the poverty ratio by fivepercentage points by 2007 and by 15percentage points by 2012.

� Providing gainful and high-qualityemployment to the labour force over thetenth plan period (2002-2007).

� All children in school by 2003; allchildren to complete five years ofschooling by 2007.

� Reducing gender gaps in literacy and wagerates by at least 50 per cent by 2007.

� Reducing the decadal rate of populationgrowth between 2001-2011 to 16.2 per cent.

� Increasing the literacy rates to 75 per centwithin the Plan period.

� Reducing the Infant Mortality Rate (IMR)to 45 per 1000 live births by 2007 and to 28by 2012.

� Reducing the Maternal Mortality Ratio(MMR) to two per 1000 live births by 2007and to one by 2012.

� Increasing the forest and tree cover to 25 percent by 2007 and 33 per cent 2012.

� All villages to have sustained access topotable drinking water by 2007.

� Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007and other notified stretches by 2012.

Source: Tenth Plan Document, Planning Commission, 2002.

Box 6.1: Indian DevelopmentalTargets

� Agricultural development must be viewed as a core element of the national planning process, sincegrowth in this sector is likely to lead to widespread benefits, especially to the rural poor. The firstgeneration of reforms concentrated on the industrial economy and reforms in the agricultural sectorwere neglected; this must change in the Tenth Plan.

� The growth strategy of the Tenth Plan must ensure rapid development of sectors most likely to createlarge employment opportunities and deal with the policy constraints that discourage growth ofemployment. These include sectors such as agriculture in its extended sense, construction, tourism,transport, small-scale industry, retailing, information technology and communication-enabled services,as well as a range of other new services.

� There will be a continuing need to augment the growth momentum with special programmes aimed attarget groups that may not derive sufficient benefit from the normal growth process. Such programmeshave long been part of our development strategy and they must continue in the Tenth Plan as well.

Box 6.2: Strategy for equity and social justice

Source: Tenth Plan Document, Planning Commission, 2002.

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policies, organizational capacity, and socialdevelopment is duly recognized. The provision ofresources for social services and the creation of newpartnerships for the delivery of services are important,and must be implemented within a framework thatprovides mechanisms for efficiency andaccountability. The establishment of appropriateinstitutional frameworks to implement variousdevelopment programmes has been an importantcomponent of development policies throughoutIndia’s planning effort since independence. Theseprovide platforms to implement adaptation strategiesfor dispersed and informal sectors like watershedmanagement, agriculture, rural health and forestry.

The three-tier Panchayati Raj institutions for localgovernance are the most fundamental system,transferring decision-making power to the grassrootslevel. The agricultural cooperatives have emerged aspowerful institutions for rural development. Theirorganizational structures provide for the activeparticipation of individuals at the local level. Atpresent, there are large numbers of product orcommodity-oriented co-operatives, such as in sugar,weaving, dairy, banking, and fisheries. In the mid-1990s, there were a total of 0.47 million co-operativesoperating in different sectors, with more than 220million members. However, the success of PanchayatiRaj and co-operatives in a setting where literacy islow and the society is often fragmented into socialand gender-based inequalities, requires substantialgovernment interventions.

The development of institutions to elicit thecommunity’s participation in natural resourcemanagement has been a challenge for programmeimplementation. The social forestry programme wasimplemented through different plantation models, likefarm forestry, community forestry, strip plantations,and rehabilitation of degraded forests anddevelopment of recreation forests. However, therewere limitations to this approach. The National ForestPolicy (1988) outlined the scope for people’sparticipation in forest management. JFM, whichfollowed, is a concept of developing partnershipsbetween the forest-dependent communities and theforest departments on the basis of mutual trust andjointly defined roles and responsibilities with regardto forest protection and development. About 62,890

JFM committees covering an area of 14.25 Mha offorest land (about 21 per cent of the total recordedforest area in India), have since been established.

Community participation in natural resourcesmanagement was extended to water resources as well,since it has emerged as a major challenge to publicpolicy in recent years. Both irrigation systems anddrinking-water supply systems were beset with severalmanagement problems. The irrigation sector has beenfacing the twin issues of sub-optimal sector planningand financial management on the one hand, andinadequate water management and maintenance onthe other. Drawing lessons from the failure of supply-driven approaches in irrigation and drinking waterprojects, the recent initiatives have involved the usersin the management of water resources. The WaterUsers Associations (WUAs) are central to theimplementation of participatory irrigationmanagement. The functions of WUAs include actingas an interface between the farmers and the mainsystem management of the irrigation project as wellas other concerned government agencies, waterdistribution, operation and maintenance of theirrigation and drainage system, collection of watercharges and other user charges, land conflictresolution. There is a great deal of variability in theapproaches to devolution and participation.

A beginning has also been made to involve users inboth rural and urban drinking-water supply projects.It is based on the expectation that the implementationof a participatory demand-driven approach will ensurethat the public obtains the level of service they desireand can afford to pay for. The recovery of operation,maintenance and replacement costs is expected toensure the financial viability and sustainability of theschemes. The necessary reforms have been introducedin 1999 to the Accelerated Rural Water SupplyProgramme (ARWSP) implemented through the RajivGandhi National Drinking Water Mission. InNovember 2002, the Government of India issued anotification on the implementation of participatoryand community-led Swjaldhara Rural Drinking WaterProjects.

Constitutional provisions and legal requirements havebeen used to achieve various standards and normsneeded for development programmes. A variety of

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environmental regulations have been enacted toachieve goals of environment protection andpreservation. Some of the major legislations forenvironmental protection include the Water(Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act (1974), theForest Conservation Act (1980), the Air (Preventionand Control of Pollution) Act (1981), and thecomprehensive Environment Protection Act (1986),the Energy Conservation Act (2001), and theElectricity Act (2003). Constitutional amendmentswere also made to incorporate environmental concernsinto development programmes. The forty-secondAmendment of the Constitution (1977) enjoined boththe state and the citizens to protect and improve theenvironment and safeguard forests and wildlife. Theseventy-third Amendment (1992) made thePanchayats responsible for soil conservation,watershed development, social and farm forestry,drinking water, fuel and fodder, non-conventionalenergy sources and maintenance of community assets.Various national policies, such as the National ForestPolicy (1988) and the National Water Policy (1987and 2002), are all important moves towards ensuringthe sustainability of natural resources.

India is also a signatory to many of the internationalmultilateral treaties in matters relating to environment,health, investment, trade and finance. The governmenthas also incorporated the spirit of Agenda 21 in theform of two policy statements: the Abatement ofPollution and the National Conservation Strategy. TheAbatement of Pollution conforms to the ‘polluterpays’ principle, involving the public in decisionmaking, and giving industries and consumers clearsignals through market mechanisms about the costof using environmental and natural resources. TheNational Conservation Strategy and PolicyStatement on Environment and Development havemade environmental impact assessment mandatoryfor all development projects, right from theplanning stage.

NATIONAL PLANNING ANDCLIMATE CHANGE

The Tenth Five-Year Plan also reflects theGovernment of India’s commitment to the UnitedNations Millennium Development Goals (2002). TheUN goals include halving extreme poverty, halving

the proportion of people without sustainable accessto safe drinking water, halting the spread of HIV/AIDS and enrolling all boys and girls everywhere inprimary schools by 2015. Many of the Indian nationaltargets are more ambitious than the UN millenniumdevelopment goals, like: doubling the national percapita income by 2012, all villages to have sustainedaccess to potable drinking water by 2007, halting HIV/AIDS spread by 2007, and all children in schools by2003 (Table 6.1). They reflect the commitment of theGovernment of India to the UNFCCC, the RioDeclaration (1992) on Agenda 21 at the UNConference on Environment and Development, theMillennium Declaration at the UN MillenniumSummit, the Johannesburg Declaration at the WorldSummit on Sustainable Development (2002), and theDelhi Declaration (2002) at the Eighth Conferenceof Parties (COP) to the UNFCCC.

These specific planning targets address many climatechange concerns. For example, reduced poverty andhunger would enhance the adaptive capacity of thepopulation. Reduced decadal population growth rateswould lower GHG emissions, reduce pressure on land,resources, and ecosystems and provide higher accessto social infrastructure. Increased reliance on hydroand renewable energy resources would reduce GHGand local pollutant emissions, enhance energy securityand consequent economic benefits from lower fossilfuel imports, and provide access to water resourcesfrom additional hydro projects. The cleaning of majorpolluted rivers would result in enhanced adaptivecapacity due to improved water, health and foodsecurity.

India’s development priority envisages doubling theper capita income by 2012, reducing the poverty levelby 10 per cent, providing gainful employment to alland ensuring food, energy, and economic security forthe country. The Indian government has targeted an 8per cent GDP growth rate per annum for 2002–2007.To achieve these development priorities, substantialadditional energy consumption will be necessary andcoal, being the abundant domestic energy resource,would continue to play a dominant role. The Indiantargets indicate a developmental pathway for thecountry, different from the present baselines.Moreover, there are considerable costs associated withachieving these targets, requiring the commitment of

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Table 6.1 Millennium development goals and related Indian plan targets

India’s tenth Plan (2002–2007) andbeyond targets2, 3, 4

Double the per capita income by 2012.Reduction of poverty ratio by 5 % by 2007 and by15 % by 2012.Reduce the decadal population growth rate to 16.2%between 2001-2011 (from 21.3% during 1991-2001).

All children to complete five years of schooling by2007.Increase in literacy rates to 75% by 2007 (from 65%in 2001).

At least halve, between 2002 and 2007, gender gapsin literacy and wage rates.

Reduction of Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) to 45 per1000 live births by 2007 and to 28 by 2012 (115 in1980, 70 in 2000).

Reduction of MMR to 2 per 1000 live births by 2007and to 1 by 2012 (from 3 in 2001).

Have halted by 2007; 80 to 90% coverage of high-risk groups, schools, colleges and rural areas forawareness generation by 2007.25% reduction in morbidity and mortality due tomalaria by 2007 and 50% by 2010.

Increase in forest and tree cover to 25% by 2007and 33% by 2012 (from 23% in 2001).Sustained access to potable drinking water to allvillages by 2007.Electrify 62,000 villages by 2007 throughconventional grid expansion, the remaining 18,000by 2012 through decentralized non-conventionalsources like solar, wind, small hydro and biomass.Cleaning of all major polluted rivers by 2007 andother notified stretches by 2012.Expeditious reformulation of the fiscal managementsystem to make it more appropriate for the changedcontext.

Millennium development goalsand global targets1

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger.Target 1: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, theproportion of people whose income is less than $1 aday.Target 2: Halve, between 1990 and 2015, theproportion of people who suffer from hunger.Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education .Target 3: Ensure that, by 2015, children everywhere,boys and girls alike, will be able to complete a fullcourse of primary schooling.

Target 4: Eliminate gender disparity in primary andsecondary education, preferably by 2005, and in alllevels of education, no later than 2015.Goal 4: Reduce child mortality.Target 5: Reduce by two-thirds, between 1990 and2015, the under-five mortality rate.

Goal 5: Improve maternal health.Target 6: Reduce by three-quarters, between 1990and 2015, the Maternal Mortality Ratio (MMR)

Target 7: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reversethe spread of HIV/AIDS.Target 8: Have halted by 2015 and begun to reversethe incidence of malaria and other major diseases.

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability.Target 9: Integrate the principles of sustainabledevelopment into country policies and programmesand reverse the loss of environmental resources.Target 10: Halve by 2015 the proportion of peoplewithout sustainable access to safe drinking water.Target 11: Have achieved by 2020 a significantimprovement in the lives of at least a 100 millionslum dwellers.

contd…contd…

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women.

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases.

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Millennium development goals and global targets1 India’s tenth Plan (2002-2007) andbeyond targets2, 3, 4

Note: Millennium Targets13 and 14 refer to special needs of least-developed, land-locked and small island countries. India is party to severalinternational conventions and programmes assisting these countries. India is also implementing policies in line with Target 15 that exhortsamelioration of debt of developing countries, including own debt, under global cooperation.Sources:

1 Human Development Report, UNDP, 2003.

2 Tenth Five-Year Plan, Planning Commission, GOI, Vol. 1 (pp 6–8), Vol. 2 (pp. 108, 117, 909, 914, 927).

3 For the most recent year between 1985–1999 (UNDP, 2002), pp. 176.

4 India Vision 2020, SP Gupta Committee report, Planning Commission, GOI, 2002 (pp. 93).

Target 12: Develop further an open, rule-based,predictable, non-discriminatory trading and financialsystem (includes a commitment to good governance,development, and poverty reduction—bothnationally and internationally).Target 16: In co-operation with developingcountries, develop and implement strategies fordecent and productive work for youth.Target 17: In co-operation with pharmaceuticalcompanies, provide access to affordable essentialdrugs in developing countries.Target 18: In co-operation with the private sector,make available the benefits of new technologies,especially ICT’s.

Tenth Plan includes state-wise break up of the broaddevelopmental targets.Higher integration with the global economy.Create 50 million employment opportunities by2007 and 100 million by 2012 (the current back-logof unemployment is around 9%, equivalent to 35million people).

additional resources from various sources, as well asby realigning new investments.

Market-oriented economic reforms initiated in the pastdecade have expanded the choice of policyinstruments, technologies and resources. In the energyand electricity sectors, this has led to the ameliorationof fuel quality, technology stocks, infrastructure, andoperating practices. The concerns about rising energy,electricity and carbon intensity of the Indian economyinspired the Indian government to initiate targettedprogrammes and institutions to promote energyefficiency, energy conservation, and introducerenewable energy technologies. The thrust areasinclude energy efficiency improvement in all sectorsof the economy, promoting hydro and renewableelectricity, power sector reforms including nationalgrid formulation and clean coal technologies forpower generation, energy infrastructure development,coal washing, cleaner and less carbon-intensivetransport fuel promotion, and environmental qualitymanagement.

Therefore, it is clear that the Indian planning processand global climate change concerns are intricatelylinked. Taking care of the national planning objectiveswould include addressing many of the climate changeconcerns.

DEVELOPMENT AND CLIMATECHANGE

Climate change interfaces with diverse societal andnatural processes and, consequently, with thedevelopment processes. Conventionally, climatechange has been considered as an impediment todevelopment and, conversely development is viewedas a threat to the climate. The development and climateparadigm, also alternatively referred to as‘development first’, views development as the toolto address the challenges posed by climate change,the key to overcoming our vulnerability andenhancing our capabilities for adaptation to itsadverse impacts. In this paradigm, the developmentitself—i.e., building capacities, institutions andhuman capital in developing countries—emerges

Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development.

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as the key factor for enhancing adaptive andmitigative capacities.

The term ‘development’ refers to broader social goals,in addition to economic growth. In recent years, thenational development policy perspective has taken amore inclusive view of the scope, content and thenature of national development. The conventionalparadigm of economic development, which waswoven around optimal resource allocation, is nowextended to include participative processes, localinitiatives and global interfaces. As mentioned earlier,the new vision views welfare as the raison d’etre ofdevelopment. Under the emerging developmentperspective, while efficient resource allocation is bestaddressed by market mechanisms, the institutions arealso considered as a key component for the optimalutilization of a nation’s resources. Thus, theinstitutions and policies play a vital role in welfaredevelopment. The development vision dulyrecognizes the strong links between governmentpolicies, organizational capacity, and the results ofsocial development. The vision also perceives theprovision of resources for social services and thecreation of new partnerships for the delivery ofservices as essential; it also accords primacy to theimplementation of the vision within a framework ofpolicies and institutions, which provide mechanismsfor efficiency and accountability.

Many initiatives for adaptation and mitigation arelikely to be integrated with and added to the alreadyexisting economic development projects. Thefinancing for projects involves ensuring that the risksand expected returns are commensurate with therequirements of the financial markets; matchinginvestors who have available funds with projectsseeking funding is by no means easy in developingcountries. The success of linking investors withprojects, via appropriate sets of institutional andfinancial intermediaries, partly depends on the degreeof development of the financial markets and thefinancial services sector in the country where theproject will be implemented.

Therefore, the ‘development first’ perspectiveproposes to create myriad economic and socialactivities and orient these towards the climate-friendlypathway. Since the goals of sustainable national

development are favourable to the issue of climatechange, the achievement of these goals would accruea double dividend in terms of added climate changebenefits. The cascading effects of sustainabledevelopment would reduce emissions and moderatethe adverse impacts of climate change, and therebyalleviate the resulting loss in welfare.

The vital relationship between sustainabledevelopment and climate change was brought intosharper focus in the Delhi Declaration made at COP-8 in November 2002. The Declaration reiterated theview of the World Summit on SustainableDevelopment that poverty eradication, changingunsustainable patterns of production andconsumption, and protecting and managing the naturalresource base of economic and social developmentare the overarching objectives of, and essentialrequirements for, sustainable development.

The WSSD emphasized the need to augment thefinancing of development and technology transfer todeveloping countries and the need for climate changepolicies to be aligned with national developmentpriorities of nations. The Delhi Declaration also notedthat technology transfer should be strengthened,through concrete projects and capacity building in allrelevant sectors such as energy, transport, industry,health, agriculture, biodiversity, forestry and wastemanagement. Technological advances should bepromoted through research and development,economic diversification and by strengthening therelevant regional, national and local institutions forsustainable development.

CLIMATE-FRIENDLY INITIATIVES

India has the world’s second largest population andfourth largest economy, with a per capita annual GDPof US $462 in 2001. India’s economy grew at a rateof almost 6.6 per cent per year during the 1990s, nearlydoubling over that time. The energy use grew evenfaster, at a rate close to 7 per cent. The demand forelectric power has grown still faster, in the order of 8% per year. Despite this growth, India’s per capitaelectricity use averages at only one-sixth of the worldaverage. Its per capita CO2 emission also rank amongthe lowest in the world, averaging four per cent ofthe US per capita CO2 emissions in 1994, eight per

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cent of Germany, nine per cent of UK, 10 per cent ofJapan and 23 per cent of the global average.

To achieve the national developmental targets (Table6.1), India endeavours to pursue a sustainable pathwaywith reduced population growth rates, an open market-based economy, and a sophisticated science andtechnology sector. It has also undertaken severalresponse measures that contribute to the objectivesof the UNFCCC.

The reduction in the decadal population growth ratesof India over the last 30 years is a prominent policyinitiative making a real, if indirect, contribution tocontrolling GHG emission growth from India. Thegovernment has many programmes that promotefamily planning and female literacy and advice againstearly marriages. However, the momentum ofpopulation growth will continue for a while, becausethe high Total Fertility Rates (TFR) in the past hasresulted in a large proportion of the population beingcurrently in their reproductive years. The higherfertility due to the unmet need for contraception(estimated contribution is 20 per cent) has led to 168million eligible couples, of which just 44 per cent arecurrently effectively protected. The government aimsto make contraception more widely accepted,available, accessible, and affordable for familyplanning, as well as to counter the spread of AIDS.The decadal population growth rate has steadilydeclined from 24.8 per cent during 1961–1971 to 21.3per cent during 1991–2001 and is targetted to furtherdecline to 16.2 per cent during 2001–2011. (Box 6.3).

Population control and family welfare policies haveindirectly contributed to GHG emission abatement.

Half a century after formulating the NationalFamily Welfare Programme, India has:� Reduced the Crude Birth Rate (CBR) from

40.8 (1951) to 24.8 (2001).� Halved the IMR from 146 per 1000 live births

(1951) to 70 per 1000 live births (2001).� Quadrupled the Couple Protection Rate (CPR)

from 10.4 % (1971) to 44 % (1999).� Reduced the Crude Death Rate (CDR) from

25 (1951) to 8.9 (2001).� Added 25 years to the average life expectancy

from 37 years to 62 years.� Achieved nearly universal awareness of the

need for, and methods of, family planning.� Reduced the Total Fertility Rate from 6.0

(1951) to 3.1 (2001).

Box 6.3: India’s DemographicAchievements

Source: Census of India, 2001, Government of India.

This has resulted in reducing births by almost 40million over the last 30 years, contributing to thereduction in emissions growth amounts toapproximately 40 Mt of CO2 per year currently, at aboutone tonne of CO2 emissions per capita per year.

The wide-ranging reforms in the past decade haveaccelerated economic growth and lowered the barriersto efficiency. The energy and power sector reforms,for instance, have helped to enhance the technicaland economic efficiency of energy use. The last fewyears have witnessed the introduction of landmarkenvironmental measures that have targetted thecleansing of rivers, enhanced forestation, installed asignificant capacity of renewable energy technologiesand introduced the world’s largest urban fleet of CNGvehicles in Delhi.

The recent National Highway Development Projectto convert the existing roads into four/six-lanehighways covering around 13,146 km of road network,with another 1,000 km of port and other connectivity,is expected to cost Rs 540 billion (US$ 11.8 billion).More than 2,100 km has already been completed overthe last three years and another 5,000 km are undervarious stages of completion. More than US$ 3.5billion have been spent and/or committed. The project

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will result in substantial savings in fuel consumptionand, therefore, in GHG emissions, with the totalsocioeconomic benefits estimated at Rs 80 billion peryear for the golden quadrangle alone (http://www.nhai.org/, dated 6 April, 2004).

The national capital, Delhi, has recently started itsfirst state-of-the-art metro railway to ease trafficcongestion, reduce commuting time, save fuel, reducelocal pollutants and GHG emissions, and increase theshare of public transport in the mega city. It is plannedto construct 68.3 km of metro rail tracks in Delhi by2005, which will cost Rs 105 billion. A unique featureof the Delhi Metro is its integration with other modesof public transport, enabling the commuters toconveniently change from one mode to another. These

and similar measures, affirmed by the democratic andlegislative processes, have been implemented bycommitting additional resources, as well as byrealigning new investments. These deliberate actions,by consciously factoring in India’s commitment tothe UNFCCC, have redirected economic developmentto a more climate-friendly path.

India is endowed with diverse energy resources,wherein coal has a dominant share. Therefore, theIndian energy system evolved with a large share ofcoal in the energy consumption. This, coupled withthe rising energy consumption, led to a rising carbonemissions trajectory in the past. However, India’s percapita CO2 emission of 0.87 t-CO2 in 1994 is stillamongst the lowest in the world. It is four per cent ofthe US per capita CO2 emissions in 1994, eight percent of Germany, nine per cent of UK, 10 per cent ofJapan and 23 per cent of the global average. India’senergy, power, and carbon intensities of the GDP havedeclined after the mid-nineties, due to factors such asincreased share of service sector in the GDP, andenergy efficiency improvements. India has also takensome initiatives to enhance penetration of low carbon-intensive fuels like natural gas and carbon-free sourceslike renewable energy.

Fossil energyThe concerns about rising energy, electricity andcarbon intensity of the Indian economy led theGovernment to initiate targetted programmes andinstitutions to promote energy efficiency, conservationand introduction of renewable energy technologies.The thrust areas include cleaner coal mining and use,oil security, infrastructure development,environmental and quality management, reforms,power grid integration, and energy efficiency. Theclean coal initiatives include improving the qualityof coal and the productivity of coal mining; adoptingenvironment-friendly technologies including coalgasification, beneficiation, and liquefaction for valueaddition to domestic coal. Other initiatives such asthe Electricity Act (2003); renewable energy;increasing the share of large hydro projects in thegeneration-mix; reducing electricity T&D losses;labelling equipment and benchmarking for energyefficiency; energy saving targets for motors, lightingand energy-intensive industries; reduction in gasflaring; waste heat recovery; and dual-fuel engines,

The Metro Rail in New Delhi uses state-of-the-arttechnology.

National Highway Development Project is an example ofclimate friendly development.

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indicate the government’s commitment to climate-friendly development.

Coal will continue to be the mainstay of commercialenergy in India. The four-pronged strategy of moreefficient and clean use of coal includes therationalization of coal use, the participation of theprivate sector, price reforms, and technological upgradation. Some prominent technologicalinterventions are in the areas of coal washing,combustion technologies and the recovery of coal-bed methane.

Energy conservation and efficiency enhancementmeasures in the oil sector include the reduction ofgas flaring, waste heat recovery, energy audits, moreefficient norms for road vehicles, and the substitutionof diesel with natural gas. Institutions like thePetroleum Conservation Research Association havebeen promoting R&D activities for the developmentof fuel-efficient equipment and mass awareness.

The Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas hasdesigned several programmes to mitigate the impactof activities in the oil and gas sector on theenvironment, which are listed below:

� It has embarked on the programme of exploitingcoal-bed methane (CBM) by the oil sector,focusing on the methane trapped in the coal seamsin mines that are economically unviable due to theirdepth, or are not safe. Under the CBM policy, 16blocks have been awarded for exploration.

� Petrol and sulfur have been made more eco-friendly with the supply of unleaded petrol andlow-sulfur petrol and diesel from 2000 onwards.The Euro-II equivalent fuel quality is available inselected urban areas and complete coverage wouldbe achieved by 2005. The supply of Euro-IIIequivalent quality fuel is slated for commencementin selected major cities with effect from 1 April2005.

� The government had also launched the programmeof blending of five per cent ethanol in petrol inIndia. In the first phase, the major sugarcane-producing states have been selected for coverageand the remaining states are being taken up in thesecond phase in line with the availability ofethanol. The blending percentage would be raisedto 10 per cent in subsequent phases.

� With the consumption of diesel being five timesthe consumption of petrol, the government had alsoconsidered blending of ethanol in diesel. However,in view of the inadequate quantity of ethanol aswell as instability of the blend achieved, theblending of bio-diesel in diesel, like thedevelopments abroad, is undergoing trials.

� To reduce the pressure on forests and the burningof biomass in rural areas, the government hasintroduced 5 kg LPG cylinders, available ataffordable prices for the poorer sections of thepopulation. The LPG waiting list has beenliquidated and domestic LPG connections are nowavailable across the counter.

� The laying of more gas, crude and productpipelines for transport of petroleum and gasproducts have been taken up, since this mode oftransportation is the most eco-friendly and the leastpolluting. Simultaneously, the proposed nationalgas grid would serve to provide interconnectivitybetween consumers and producers in different partsof the country.

� The government has actively embarked ondiplomatic initiatives with the countries of theMiddle East and its immediate neighbours for thesupply of natural gas, either as LNG or throughpipeline transport, as the gases are environmentallycleaner than liquid petroleum fuels.

� CNG is being supplied for use as an auto fuel inDelhi and Mumbai and also as a domestic fuel.This auto fuel will be available in other cities, likePune, Kanpur, Lucknow, Agra, Bareilly and

REVA: The indigenously built electric car.

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Faridabad, over the next two years.� Auto LPG is also being supplied in the 10 most

polluted cities of the country, with thecommissioning of auto LPG dispensing stationsin Agra, Ahmedabad, Bangalore, Chennai, Delhi,Hyderabad, Kanpur, Kolkata, Mumbai and Pune.

� The oil companies have also improved theirhousekeeping practices by systematic efforts tocontrol gas flaring, recover waste heat, minimizehandling losses, etc.

� Another environment-friendly measure proposedis the use of hydrogen for transportation purposes.Although work is still in the R&D stage, theIndian oil and gas sector has decided to step upactivities in this area. The success of the movewill go a long way in reducing GHG emissions,since hydrogen contains no CO2, unlikehydrocarbons.

The government policy has included publicinvestment to develop the natural gas infrastructurefor port handling, long-distance and local distribution.One example is the HBJ 1,500-km, high-pressure gaspipeline from near Mumbai to the north of Delhi,which carries 4-5 billion cubic meters of gas fromoffshore production. A national gas grid is also in theplanning stages. The share of gas in the power-generating capacity has risen to eight per cent fromonly two per cent ten years ago. LPG has almost

completely replaced commercial coal and kerosene inurban households; public vehicles also have beenconverted to run on CNG. Box 6.4 indicates some ofthe major achievements in the Indian petroleum sector.

The concerns about rising energy intensity, electricityintensity and carbon intensity of the Indian economyled the government to initiate specific programs andset up institutions to promote energy efficiency,energy conservation and introduction of renewableenergy technologies. The thrust areas include:

� Cleaner coal mining and coal use,� Oil security,� Infrastructure development,� Management of Environmental quality,� Power grid integration, and� Energy efficiency improvement.

The clean coal initiatives include improving thequality of coal and the productivity of coal mining;adopting environment-friendly technologiesincluding coal gasification, beneficiation, andliquefaction for value addition to domestic coal andother initiatives such as:

� renewable energy,� increasing the share of large hydro projects in the

generation-mix,� reducing electricity T&D losses,� labeling equipment and benchmarking for energy

efficiency,� energy saving targets for motors, lighting and

energy- intensive industries,� reduction in gas flaring,� waste- heat recovery,� dual-fuel engines, etc.

indicate the government’s commitment to climate-friendly development.

The Indian electricity sector has long been carbonintensive and the largest source of carbon dioxideemissions. Natural gas has penetrated this market inrecent years and helped to reduce the carbon intensityof electric power generation. The improvement in thecombustion efficiency of conventional coaltechnologies, along with strong promotion ofrenewable technologies, has made appreciable

� Dismantling of Administrative PriceMechanism on 31 March, 2002.

� New Exploration Licensing Policyintroduced and two rounds completed inrecord time.

� Refining capacity targets surpassed.� Release of around 34 million new LPG

connections, thereby liquidating the entirewaiting list for new cooking gas connectionsin India.

� Secured equity oil abroad.� Introduction of auto LPG and setting up of

Motor Spirit-Ethanol blending projects inselected States.

Box 6.4: Success Story in thePetroleum Sector

Source: Tenth Plan Document, Planning Commission, 2002.

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contributions to reduced GHG emissions. The lowercarbon emissions also have resulted from importanttechnological advancements in coal washing. Recentgovernment policy restricts the transportation ofunwashed coal to less than a 1,000 km. The customersare motivated to reduce the ash content to improveefficiency, reduce local pollution, and cut freight costs.The capture of coal bed methane (which is agreenhouse gas) is being promoted for use as cleanfuel. New combustion technologies, including super-critical coal-fired power plants, are being introducedas described below:

Introduction of Super-critical Technology: In orderto achieve higher operational efficiency and minimizeenvironmental impact, NTPC is introducing super-critical technology in the country in the forthcomingmega projects. Switching from sub-critical to super-critical technology results in enhancing the efficiencyof thermal conversion, thereby reducing fuelconsumption and consequently emissions.

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC):Lately, coal gasification-based power generation hasemerged as an environmentally attractive generationalternative; i.e., high efficiency and low emissions.A detailed technical and economic feasibility studyreport for setting up a 100 MW IGCC Plant based onIndian coal at NTPC Dadri is in progress. Also, NTPCand BHEL are collaborating for setting up a 100 MWIGCC demonstration plant based on Indian coal atNTPC Auraiya plant.

Renewable energyIndia has one of the most active renewable energyprogrammes in the world, which has a widegeographical reach and covers diverse economicsectors. In the rural areas, over 3.26 million biogasplants and 34.3 million improved wood-burningstoves have been installed. So far about 3,50,000 solarlanterns, 177,000 home-lighting systems, 41,400street-lighting systems, 1.17 MW aggregate capacityof small and stand-alone power plants, and over 4,200solar-pumping systems have also been installed.

The recent years have seen a significant increase inrenewable energy applications for electricitygeneration. Ministry of Power has taken various stepsto improve the hydropower development in India.These mainly include additional budgetary financialsupport, R&M and up-rating of existing hydrostations, basin wise hydropower development andcomprehensive ranking studies for 399 hydroschemes. As on December 2003, hydro electricprojects of 27,760 MW have been commissioned andare in operation. 41 schemes with an aggregateinstalled capacity of 15,300 MW (which includescapacity scheduled to be commissioned during 2007-2012) are in different stages of implementation.During 2002-2007, hydro capacity addition plannedis 14,393 MW. To meet future power requirements,hydro electric schemes with a total installed capacityof about 20,000 MW are planned to be implemented.

Recently, a 50,000 MW hydro electric initiative hasbeen launched that includespreparation of feasibility reports for162 hydro electric schemes plannedfor execution during 2012-2017.

The total installed capacity of smallhydro-power projects (up to 25MW) is 1529 MW presently.

Solar Photovoltaic (SPV) powersystems are being used for a varietyof decentralized applications, suchas rural electrification (Box 6.5),railway signaling, microwaverepeaters, TV transmitters,telecommunications, and for

India has one of the most active renewable energy programmes in the world.

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providing power to border outposts. Biomass power-generation plants, aggregating to 537 MW have beeninstalled in the country. In addition, biomassgasification systems totaling 55 MW capacity havealso been set up for decentralized energyapplications. A 140 MW Integrated SolarCombined Cycle (ISCC) Power Project is beingset up, which is one of its kind in the world, basedon naphtha fuel and solar power.

India’s installed capacity of 1507 MW places it amongthe first five countries in the world in the field of wind-power generation. Wind generators of 250 kW to 600kW capacities are being manufactured in the country.

The total installed capacity of smallhydropower projects (up to 25 MW)is 1406 MW. Some projects with anaggregate capacity of about 15.21MW have also been completed in theareas of energy recovery from urban,municipal and industrial waste.

Ministry of Power has recentlylaunched Rural Electricity SupplyTechnology (REST) mission forproviding affordable and reliablepower supply to rural and remoteareas through decentralizeddistributed generation based onrenewable energy resources such assolar, mini- and micro-hydro,

biomass, etc.

Energy efficiency and conservationIndia’s elasticity of energy consumption was morethan unity for the 1953–2001 period. However, theelasticity for primary commercial energy consumptionfor the 1991–2000 period is less than unity. This couldbe attributed to several factors, such as theimprovement in efficiency of energy use and theconsequent lowering of the overall energy intensityof the economy, and the higher share of hydrocarbonsin the overall energy mix.

Energy conservation is accorded high priority by thecentral and state governments through multiplemeasures to improve the energy management of thedemand and supply side. These include energystandards, labelling equipment and appliances, energycodes for building, energy audits, energy efficientbulbs, tubelights and agricultural pumpsets, massawareness and extension efforts. In addition,affordable alternative energy sources can greatlyinfluence the pattern of energy consumption and leadto energy efficiency. The Tenth Five-Year Planprovides energy saving potential for the country fromsome specific activities (Table 6.3).

The NTPC, the premier power generation companyin India working under Ministry of Power, hasachieved the ISO: 14001 Standard for all the stationsit owns and one more that it manages. In addition,the NTPC has obtained ISO 14001 accreditation for

Solar power lights rural India.

SELCO India, a private sector companyestablished in 1995, has installed over 25,000Solar Home Systems (SHS), 600 solarstreetlights and 4,000 solar thermal systems,mostly in rural India. These initiatives havebeen successful by coupling quality productsand after- sales service with doorstep customerfinancing at priority sector lending rates throughseveral regional rural banking institutions. Thecompany has also sold over US$ 50,000 worthof carbon credits to US and European firms forthese clean energy initiatives.

Box 6.5: Solar Energy LightsRural India

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its Corporate Environment Management Group andAsh Utilization Division.

The best Operation and Maintenance (O&M)philosophy of the NTPC has yielded substantialefficiency and environmental improvement. TheO&M practices of NTPC have immensely benefittedold stations taken over by NTPC, which wereoperating at a lower efficiency earlier. In order toincrease the efficiency of ESP on a sustained basis,new technologies such as water-fogging, and sodiumconditioning, are under trial to further reduceparticulate emissions in some stations. The NTPC hastaken a proactive step with respect to the reduction ofGHGs and is in the process of preparing a road mapfor CO2 sequestration.

The Indian government passed the EnergyConservation Act in 2001, which mandates the settingup of a Bureau of Energy Efficiency (BEE) that willintroduce stringent energy conservation norms forenergy generation, supply and consumption.However, the enforcement of penalties stipulated inthe Act have been kept in abeyance for five years,during which time people would be made aware ofthe economics and efficacy of the conservation ofenergy.

Industrial development has contributed significantlyto economic growth in India, with indigenous coalaccounting for over half of total primary energyconsumption. Industrial energy intensity has declinedgradually over the past decade, mainly due to theadoption of new and efficient technologies and rapid

expansion of non energy-intensive industries.

TransportThere has been a sweeping change in India’s vehiclestock over the past decade. Economic reforms haveenlarged the vehicle market and prompted rapidpenetration by Indian-collaborated foreign brands.The rising concern about air quality prompted theintroduction of emissions-limiting performancestandards in 2000. European-level emission normsfor new cars and passenger vehicles wereintroduced in 2002 in Delhi, Mumbai, Chennai,and Kolkata. Apart from mitigating localpollutants, the vehicles meeting these norms aremore energy efficient and emit fewer GHGs, whileproviding the same level of service.

In Delhi, 84,000 public vehicles—all buses, taxis, andthree-wheelers—were converted from gasoline anddiesel to CNG. This rapid achievement wasaccomplished in about one year to comply with theclean air laws. Although the compliance cost pervehicle was relatively high—up to US $300 for athree-wheeler and US $1,000 for a car—the policyhas been applied uniformly and effectively. TheGovernment of India has recently announced an AutoFuel Policy for the country to ensure cleaner air forthe citizens through efficient vehicles, cleaner fuelsand other solutions that may also reduce carbonemissions.

AgricultureSome of the climate-friendly initiatives in theagriculture sector include the standardization of fuel-efficient irrigation pump-sets, retrofitting existingpump-sets for higher energy efficiency, better waterand crop management, improved cultivars, moreefficient application of synthetic fertilizers, enhancedorganic fertilizer use, improved animal feeds anddigesters, and rationalization of power tariffs for theagriculture sector. Many of these measures wouldserve to reduce CO2, methane and N2O emissions.

Resident ia lThe development and promotion of fuel-efficientequipment and appliances like kerosene and LPGstoves, compact fluorescent lamps, and better pumpsfor water lifting in high-rise buildings are endorsedin the residential sector.

Table 6.3: Energy saving potential

Source: Tenth Plan Document, Planning Commission, 2002.

End-use type PotentialEnergySavings(GWh)

Motors and drive systems(Industry and agriculture sector) 80000Lighting (domestic, commercialand industrial sector) 10000Energy intensive industries 5000TOTAL 95000

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Afforestation and Land RestorationThe forest and tree cover constitutes above 23 percent of the country’s geographical area according tothe 2001 estimates. The per capita deforestation ratein India is amongst the lowest in the major tropicalcountries. The area of forests with 40 per cent crowncover has been increasing. A major afforestation planis being implemented with the assistance of localpopulation through JFM. The basic components ofIndia’s forest conservation efforts include putting acheck on the diversion of forest land for non-forestrypurposes; encouragement of farm forestry/private areaplantations for meeting industrial wood requirement;expansion of the area under the protected areanetwork; and control of forest fires. During 1990-1999, an area of over 14 Mha was brought undervarious afforestation programmes.

The NTPC and other central power sectorundertakings of the Government of India are adoptingafforestation and other environmental measures toenhance CO2 removals by natural sinks. These includeinvestments to increase the national forest cover,extensive afforestation and greenbelt development,and compensatory afforestation for projects thatdestroy forestlands.

The NTPC has already planted more than 15 milliontrees in and around its power stations. The scientificselection of species planted contributes to aesthetic

improvement and serves as a sink for pollutantsincluding CO2. The NTPC has introduced medicinaland bio-diesel plants in its plantation programme.Further, the filled-in abandoned ash disposal areasare being reclaimed and restored. A Special PurposeVehicle (SPV) for afforestation has been registeredas a society for increasing the forest cover and for thenatural sequestration of CO2.

The National Forest Policy envisages peoples’participation in the development of degraded forests,to meet their requirements of fuelwood, fodder andtimber, as well as to develop the forests for improvingthe environment through JFM. As on 1 September,2000, 10.25 Mha of forestland has been brought underthe scheme and 36,165 Village Forest Committeeshave been constituted. The protected area networkincludes 88 National Parks and 490 WildlifeSanctuaries and is spread over 14.8 Mha. Theconservation of fragile ecosystems has been accordeda high priority. There are 12 biosphere reserves thathave been set up in the country with the aim ofprotecting the representative ecosystem. Managementplans are being implemented with respect to over 20wetlands in the country, mangroves and coral reefs.The National Wasteland Development Board has beenentrusted with the responsibility of regeneratingdegraded and non-forest and private lands. TheNational Afforestation and Eco-Development Boardis responsible for regenerating degraded forestlands,the land adjoining forest areas, and ecologically fragileareas. These planned measures have led to a steadyincrease in the rate of afforestation, significantlycontributing to climate change.

Various planned responses in India have led to sizeablesavings in carbon emissions during the past decade.The process has helped to integrate the nationaldevelopment policies with the objectives of theUNFCCC. The additional CO2 emissions saved overthe past decade by promoting renewable energy andenergy conservation initiatives amount to over 330Mt and another 40 Mt from population policies. Theseinitiatives and additional investments have alteredIndia’s emissions trajectory, making nationaldevelopment more climate friendly.

Increased mechanization in Indian agriculture

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This chapter, in accordance with nationalcircumstances and development priorities,describes constraints and gaps, and related

financial, technical and capacity needs, as well asproposed activities for overcoming the gaps andconstraints associated with the implementation ofactivities and programmes envisaged under theUNFCCC . This chapter also includes some climatechange projects. The coverage is not an exhaustiveelucidation of India’s financial and technologicalneeds and constraints, and these have been identifiedduring the implementation of the enabling activityfor the Initial National Communication. With morescientific understanding and increasing awareness,further areas of work could also be identified,including the continuing need for improving thequality of national GHG inventories, regional andsectoral assessment of vulnerabilities and adaptationresponses, and communication of information on acontinuous basis.

The broad participatory approach adopted forpreparing India’s Initial National Communication hascontributed to understanding the challenges foraddressing climate change concerns in India, whilesimultaneously building capacity in diversedisciplines, such as inventory estimation, emissioncoefficient measurements, quantitative vulnerabilityassessment, and inventory data management.

NEED FOR CONTINUOUSREPORTING

Present efforts in inventoryestimationThe GHG emissions inventory for non-annex Icountries is to be reported to the UNFCCC Secretariatas per 10/CP.2 guidelines for the Initial NationalCommunications. These guidelines have beenimproved and were adopted during the COP-8 at New

Delhi in October 2002. GHG inventory reportingrequires detailed activity data collection andestimation of country-specific emission coefficients.The level of inventory reporting depends on the dataquality and methodology employed and is indicatedas Tier I, II or III, as per the Revised 1996 IPCCGuidelines for Greenhouse Gas Inventories. Despitethe comprehensive initiation of activities under theInitial National Communication project, there isconsiderable scope for further improvement. Theinventory estimation has to be made at a moredisaggregated level, preferably at a Tier II or III levelsfor most of the sectors, resolving the differencesbetween top-down and bottom-up estimates. Finersub-sectoral level estimates for activity data and EFhave to be developed. Similar and consistent formatshave to be adopted for data reporting and consistencyby organizations generating activity data. The majorconstraints and gaps in Indian GHG inventoryestimation are now presented.

Non-availability of relevant dataThis is a prominent concern, especially in developingcountries where time series data required for GHGinventory estimation is not available for some specificinventory sub-categories. For example, in the wastesector, details about annual municipal solid wastegeneration, collection, dumping and dumpsitecharacteristics are not available beyond five to 10years for even the large metropolitan cities; while forsmaller cities, the data availability is poor . This datais required for methane emission estimation. Inabsence of this data, the available time seriesinformation is extrapolated for a city, or that from afew cities extrapolated for the entire country, basedon homogeneous city classifications.

Another constraint is the non-availability of data forinformal and less organized sectors of the economy.These include agriculture, forestry and many small-

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scale industries (SSI) like brick, sugar, glass andceramics, dyes, rubber, plastic, chemical andengineering products. The SSI sector in Indiacomprises modern and traditional industriesencompassing the continuum of the artisans andhandicrafts units at one end and modern productionunits producing a wide range of around 7,500products. Many of these industries, along withdomestic and commercial sectors, are informal as faras energy accounting is concerned.

Similarly, improvements in activity data for varioussub-categories of agriculture-related GHG emissionsare critical. The key activity data include livestockpopulation, synthetic fertilizer application, areas underdifferent water regimes for rice paddy cultivation, andagriculture crop residue generation for various crops.Under the LULUCF sector; the area under differentland-use categories, above-ground biomass and meanannual increment, soil carbon density, fuelwood and

commercial timber consumption, have considerableuncertainty.

The National GHG inventory preparation is acontinuous process of improving the reliability andconsistency of inventory assessments. The IndianGHG inventory for the Initial NationalCommunication has been mostly reported using Tier1 and 2 approaches . As India plans to move to highertier and more detailed inventory assessments insubsequent communications, the data gaps have tobe identified and corrective action taken. Since theGHG inventory-reporting year lags behind the yearof assessment by about four to five years fordeveloping countries, the above data has to begenerated now for use in subsequent nationalcommunications. This requires sustained commitmentof resources and setting up of appropriate institutionalframeworks.

Data non-accessibilityThis is yet another peculiar data problem indeveloping countries. Since data collection requiresconsiderable effort and resources, it is often treatedas proprietary. Moreover, some of the data requiredfor refining inventories to the Tier III level isconsidered confidential by the respective firms andnot easily accessible. These firms have to be thereforesensitized about data needs for inventory reporting andrefinement. Systems have to be devised for the regularpublication of relevant information in desired formatsfor national GHG inventory estimation.

Energy consumption data in unorganised sectors andsmall scale industries, such as sugar, ceramics and brick,require refinement.

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Another issue is the non-availability of data inelectronic form. However, due to the increasedpenetration of computers and information technology,more data is becoming electronically available.

Data organization constraintsThe different levels of GHG inventory reporting,called Tiers, require different data quality . Althoughdata required for initial levels is already in the publicdomain through the annual reports and data statisticsof various ministries and departments of theGovernment of India, it is not organized in desiredformats. This requires considerable data organization,consistency checks and data management.

There is also inconsistency in some data sets releasedby the central and state governments for some activitydata . Coal consumption by power plants is one suchexample, where the top-down data on gross nationalcoal consumption and plant-level bottom-up coalconsumption data from separate reports of differentministries do not converge to the same number. Thereasons may be due to aggregation errors, and/orinaccuracies in supply side reporting of coal off-takeby the power sector versus the demand side reportingof coal consumption by individual power plants.

Another gap area is that the sectoral data for variousfuels do not match across different ministry reportsin a few instances. Although many of the industriesare reasonably well organized, however, accountingof all their energy resources is not widely available.For example, the Ministry of Petroleum and NaturalGas reports the consumption of major petroleumproducts like diesel, furnace oil, and low sulphurheavy stock (LSHS) for engineering, aluminium,ceramic and glass, chemical industries, mining andquarrying (MoPNG, 1994-1995). However, the CoalDirectory of India does not indicate coal consumedby these industries separately (MoC, 1996).Therefore, energy consumption for these industriescannot be provided for all the energy resources. Thus,for consistent energy consumption accounting andreporting purposes, many industries have to becombined together as ‘Other Industries’. The finalinventory reporting is determined by the leastcommon factors of reporting and therefore, limitsdetailed representation.

The sectoral definitions for different fuels may notbe consistent even in the same ministry document.For example, the national consumption of LSHS iscombined and reported together for the entiretransport sector, while for diesel consumption,separate data for road, aviation, shipping, railwaysand other transport is provided (MoPNG, 1999-2000).Therefore, for inventory estimation and reportingpurposes, either the LSHS data is to be distributedexogenously among various transport sub-sectorsbased on some indicators, or inventory reporting isto be done at the gross transport sector level only.

Development of representativeemission coefficientsTo capture Indian national circumstances, a beginninghas been made to generate India-specific emissioncoefficients by undertaking in-situ measurements insome key source categories to try and define the rangein uncertainties in the estimates through statisticalmethods. However, time and budgetary resourcesavailable under the project constrained the coverageunder this activity. For uncertainty reduction in GHGemissions, India needs to undertake in-situmeasurements for many more activities to capture theIndian realities. The sample size has to be statisticallydetermined for all the categories covered under theNational Communication , for instance, GHGemissions from power plants. Some critical gap areascovering the key source categories for Indian GHGemissions are as follows :

� Measurement of GHG emission coefficients frompower plants.

� Measurement of GHG emission coefficients fromsteel plants.

� Measurement of GHG emission coefficients fromcement plants.

� Measurement of GHG emission coefficients frompetroleum refineries.

� Measurement of GHG emission coefficients forthe road transport sector.

� Methane emission coefficient measurements fromcoalmines.

� Methane emission coefficient measurement fromoil and natural gas venting, flaring and transport.

� GHG emission coefficient measurements fromfully/partially informal energy intensive sectors,such as brick manufacturing, sugar and ceramics .

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� Methane emission coefficients from municipal solidwaste (MSW) sites.

� Methane emission coefficients from waste water(industrial and domestic).

� GHG emission coefficient measurements fromindustrial processes like lime production and use,nitric acid production, aluminium production, sodaash use, pulp and paper production.

� Measurements for the LULUCF sector, includingrate of above-ground biomass (AGB) growth fordifferent forest types, woody biomass volume fordifferent forest types , land-use change matrix, andsoil carbon density in Indian forests on a finegridded scale.

� GHG emission measurements and activity dataassessment for biomass used for energy purposes.

� Measurement of methane emissions from entericfermentation for different livestock categories andage groups.

� Measurement of methane and N2O from manuremanagement.

� Measurement of N2O emission coefficients fromdifferent rice paddy systems.

� Measurement/ estimation of GHG emissioncoefficients (especially N2O) for different types ofsoils in India.

These activities require significant additionalscientific work requiring considerable resources.Technical capacity has to be built at more institutionsto conduct these in-situ measurements.Instrumentation upgradation and process accreditinghas to be done for many existing laboratories.

Needs for GHG inventory estimation ona continuous basisThe GHG inventory estimation needs may beestimated at three levels:� Data needs.� Capacity development and enhancement needs.� Institutional networking and coordination needs.

The data needs are based on the data gaps andconstraints (Table 7.1). These include designingconsistent data reporting formats for continuous GHGinventory reporting, collecting data for formal andinformal sectors of the economy, enhancing dataquality to move to a higher tier of inventory reporting,and conducting detailed measurements for India-

specific emission coefficients. Capacity developmenthas to be at two levels: institutions and individualresearchers. Institutional capacity developmentrequires financial support, technological support,instrumentation, and networking. Individualresearcher capacity development is required tosensitize and train data generating teams in varioussectors and at different institutions about the GHGinventory estimation process, so that researcherswould be better equipped to collect and report thedesired data on a continuous basis. Institutionalnetworking and coordination is a critical factor forestablishing new data frameworks and reportingformats in various sectors. The Initial NationalCommunication project has contributed to initiate thisprocess in India at various levels. However, sustainedand timely financial and technological support arecritical to sustain and strengthen this process.

LULUCF sector constraints andneedsThe LULUCF sector in India has the potential to be amajor source or sink of CO2 in the future. Theuncertainty in the estimates of inventory in theLULUCF sector is shown to be higher than othersectors, such as energy transformation, transportation,industrial processes and agriculture. The availabilityand access to information on activity data, emissioncoefficients and even sequestration rates in theLULUCF sector in India is limited and the uncertaintyof the data is high, as in most countries. Thus, there isa need for improvement in the information generationprocesses for the inventory, to reduce the uncertaintyinvolved in the estimation of GHG inventory in theLULUCF sector.

Inventory in the LULUCF sector requires activity dataon area under different forest types and the areasubjected to land-use change as well as the changesin carbon stocks of different land-use categories orforest types. The data needs and features are given inTable 7.2.

Status of data and uncertainty involved: Reliable andconsistent GHG inventory requires activity data andemission or sequestration factors for various land-usecategories in the country. However, uncertainty in thereliability and quality of activity data and emissionfactors in the LULUCF sector is high in all countries,

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Table 7.1: Constraints and gaps in GHG inventory estimation

Gaps and Description Potential measuresconstraints (examples)

Data organization Published data not available in IPCC-friendly Design consistent reportingformats for inventory reporting formatsInconsistency in top-down and bottom-up data sets Data collection consistencyfor same activities requiredMismatch in sectoral details across different Design consistent reportingpublished documents formats

Non-availability Time series data for some specific inventory Generate relevant data setsof relevant data sub-categories, e.g., municipal solid waste sites

Data for informal sectors of economy Conduct data surveysData for refining inventory to higher tier levels Data depths to be improved

Non- Proprietary data for inventory reporting at Involve industry and monitoringaccessibility of Tier III level institutionsdata Data not in electronic formats Identify critical datasets and

digitizeLack of institutional arrangements for data sharing Establish protocolsTime delays in data access Awareness generation

Technical and Training the activity data generating institutions in Arrange extensive traininginstitutional GHG inventory methodologies and data formats programmescapacity needs Institutionalize linkages of inventory estimation Wider dissemination activities

with broader perspectives of climate changeresearch

Non-representative Inadequate sample size for representative emission Conduct more measurementsemission coefficients coefficient measurements in many sub-sectorsLimited resources to Sustain and enhance research networks established Global Environmentsustain national under Initial National Communication Facility (GEF)/communication international fundingefforts India-specific emission coefficients Conduct adequate sample

measurements for key sourcecategories

Vulnerability assessment and adaptation Sectoral and sub-regional impactscenario generation, layereddata generation and organization,modelling efforts, case studiesfor most vulnerable regions

Data centre and website National centre to be established

particularly in developing countries.

i) Area under different land-use categories and areasubjected to change:

Source: The FSI provides area under forest, and underdifferent tree crown density classes at a frequency oftwo years. Area under agriculture and other land-usecategories is provided by MOA.

Status of data: Availability of activity data accordingto forest and plantation types is limited. Currently,only the aggregate area under different tree crowndensities is published, which is inadequate forinventory purposes. Changes or conversion ofdifferent forest and plantation types and grasslandcategories is not available.

Uncertainty: Uncertainty is high due to lack of data

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on area under different forest and plantation types aswell as the area subjected to conversion according tothese categories.

Limitations and barriers: The area under forests,according to tree crown densities is currentlymonitored at a frequency of two years. Expandingthis to forest or plantation types requires large groundtruthing. Lack of technical manpower and financialsupport is the key barrier to monitoring area as wellas changes or conversion according to forest orplantation types.

ii) AGB and mean annual increment: This data isrequired for different forest or plantation types andmanaged land, both abandoned and regenerating.

Source: Forest inventory, silvicultural studies, fieldecological research studies and plantation companies.

Status of data: The FSI has estimated the AGB for22 forest strata, based on forest inventory. This datais available only for one-period. The estimates ofMean Annual Increment (MAI), which are based onthe measurement of AGB at two periods is lacking.The MAI is available only for some forest types inpublished field research studies.

Uncertainty: Uncertainty of estimates of AGB is highdue to:

� absence of periodic forest inventories� absence of measurements of AGB according to

different forest or plantation types at adisaggregated level

� absence of AGB measurements from the same plotat two time periods, close to the inventory year

� absence of permanent plots for frequent andperiodic measurements and monitoring.

Limitations and barriers: Monitoring of AGB, forinstance a frequency of five years, requiresestablishment of a large number of permanentinventory plots in each forest or plantation. India doesnot have periodic forest inventory plots andmeasurements due to financial and institutionalbarriers.

iii) Soil carbon density: is required for different nativeland-use categories before they are subjected toconversion as well as after conversion to a new landuse category.

Source: Soil carbon density data is being estimatedby the National Bureau of Soil Survey and Land Use

Table 7.2: Data needs for GHG inventory in the LULUCF sector.

Data needs

Area under differentland categories

Land-use change;Area under differentforest types,subjected to changeManaged areaabandonedFuelwoodconsumptionCommercial timberconsumption

Details

Forest typesPlantation typesTrees outside forestsAgricultural landLand converted to forestConversion of forest andgrassland to other categories

Subjected to regenerationTraditional and commercialfuelwood consumptionSource of fuelwoodProportion coming from forestconversion and extraction fromexisting factors

Data needs

Above groundbiomass (AGB)

Mean annual AGBgrowth rate

Soil carbon density

Details

Forest typesPlantation types

Plantation typesRegenerating abandonedland

Native land types (forests,etc.)Agricultural landPasture landOther land categoriesAt different periods, forinstance, over 20 years

Activity Data Emission Factor/Sequestration Rate

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Planning (NBSSLUP), largely for non-forest land usecategories. The only source of data on soil carbondensity is the large number of research studies carriedout in some forest types in India.

Status of data: Soil carbon density data is not availablefor all the forest and non-forest land use categoriesfor the top 30 cm. Further, its availability is limitedto only one time period.

Uncertainty: Uncertainty in soil carbon density datais high due to:� absence of data for all forest and non-forest land-

use categories� absence of data at two time periods and over 20

year period in land categories subjected to land-use change.

Limitations and barriers: The forest inventory studiesdo not incorporate the measurement of soil carbondensity. There is no specialized agency for monitoringsoil carbon density in forest land-use categories.Forest departments are inadequately equipped toconduct soil carbon studies.

iv) Fuelwood and commercial timber consumption:GHG inventory in the LULUCF sector requires dataon the quantity of traditional and commercialfuelwood and timber consumption, and the proportionof wood coming from forest clearing and fromextraction in the existing forests.

Source: The sources of data on consumption includeforest department statistics as well as the national-level fuelwood consumption studies, carried out inthe past. The source of timber consumption is theforest department as well as the FSI.

Status of data and uncertainty: Fuelwood andcommercial roundwood consumption data is notavailable for the inventory year, particularly theproportion coming from forest clearing and extractionfrom existing forests and non-forest trees. Thus, theuncertainty is high.

Limitations and barriers: India does not have anyprogramme to monitor the consumption of fuelwoodand commercial roundwood periodically. There is nodedicated institution to monitor the extraction of

fuelwood and commercial roundwood from forest andnon-forest sources.

Existing institutions and capacity for generating datain the forest sector: The main sources of data forinventory in the forest sector are the forestdepartments, FSI and research institutions.

i) Forest area monitoring: The FSI is a dedicatedinstitution under the MoEF for periodicallymonitoring the changing situation of land and forestresources and presents the data for national planning,conservation and management of environmentalpreservation and implementation of forestry projectsat the national and state level. The FSI has regionaloffices in different parts of India, and has monitoredthe area under forests using remote-sensing techniquesat a scale of 1:250,000 since 1987 to 1999. During2000, a 1: 50,000 scale has been adopted forinterpretation. The FSI does not have adequateresources and technical manpower to conduct periodicforest inventories.

ii) AGB and mean annual increment: The FSI hasinstituted a programme to conduct, periodic forestinventories in a limited number of locations.Currently, the main source of data on MAI as well asAGB is from studies conducted by universities andresearch institutions. There is no dedicated institutionto periodically monitor the AGB and MAI.

iii) Soil carbon density: The NBSSLUP is a largenational institution with regional centres for preparingsoil maps and for estimating soil organic carbon in alarge number of grids. The focus of the preparationof soil maps and estimates of different soilcharacteristics is largely limited to non-forest landuse categories. A national level digitized soil carbonmap has been prepared by NBSSLUP, but notaccessible for research.

iv) Fuelwood and commercial roundwoodconsumption: India does not have any dedicatedinstitution to estimate the consumption of fuelwoodand commercial wood or their source.

Technology, capacity development and financialneeds: India is a large developing country with a largeforest-dependent population and thus, there is a need

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to monitor the status of forests, area, biodiversity,biomass stock, soil carbon and biomass extraction.India will have to initiate a dedicated forest inventoryas well as GHG inventory programme to generateinformation and data needed. However, there aretechnical, institutional and financial barriers inestablishing a dedicated forest and GHG inventoryprogramme. This involves identifying existing orestablishing new institutions, infrastructure andcapacity development, and provision of adequatefinancial resources.� Technology needs: India has to adopt advanced

forest inventory, soil carbon density changemonitoring and biomass extraction and utilizationmonitoring programmes.

� Enlarged and periodic inventory: The forestinventory should include long-term inventory plotsfor the estimation of AGB, below-ground biomass(BGB), litter, soil carbon pools and dead organicmatter. There is a need to use remote-sensingtechniques to monitor AGB changes, in additionto traditional forest inventory techniques.

� Monitoring of forest area and changes: Theexisting programmes of the FSI need to be enlargedto monitor the area changes according to forest orplantation types. There is also a need to generate aland-use change matrix describing the flows orchanges from one category to another. Thisrequires the strengthening of satellite monitoringsystem, as well as computation and interpretationfacilities at FSI and regional centres of FSI.

� Fuelwood and commercial roundwoodconsumption studies: India has to establish anational sample survey programme for periodicallymonitoring fuelwood, industrial wood and sawnwood consumption in households, establishmentsand industries. This requires scientific samplingmethods, data collection formats, data entryframeworks and analysis techniques.

� Modelling; tools and techniques are required forthe following studies:� Projecting AGB stock and MAI for the

inventory year and for future projections basedon data from two inventory periods

� Projecting soil carbon changes with land-usechange over different periods

� Projecting fuelwood and commercialroundwood consumption at the national level,based on sample studies.

v) Capacity and institutional needs: India hasestablished institutions for undertaking the monitoringof forest area changes, forest inventory and soilorganic carbon changes. India also has the IndianCouncil for Forestry Research and Education (ICFRE)and several other institutions, dedicated to trainingand research. However, all these institutions needadditional capacity development to address the needsof GHG inventory estimation on a continuous basis.

� There is a need to undertake monitoring of forestarea changes at aggregate and disaggregate levels,such as national or state forest types. This wouldrequire additional human resource for groundtruthing periodically, computing andinterpretational facilities.

� The GHG inventory in the LULUCF sectorrequires systematic and periodic forest inventory,incorporating additional parameter measurementssuch as: BGB, soil carbon and litter. Forestdepartments in different states will have to carryout the forest inventory for generating datarequired for GHG inventory at the national level.Thus, there is a need for enhancing the humancapacity and training of field personnel, as well asstaff for synthesis and periodic reporting.

� In India, the soil carbon status is being monitoredby the NBSSLUP. However, since this institutiondoes not focus on forest lands, there is a need for adedicated institution to set up permanent plots forperiodically monitoring soil carbon changes underdifferent forest land-use systems as well as thosethat are subjected to change. Regional centres mayalso have to be set up to periodically monitor andreport soil carbon changes.

� The National Sample Survey (NSS) is currently alarge institutional system, aimed at monitoringsocial, financial, economic and other data. The NSScould be strengthened to incorporate the monitoringof fuelwood and commercial roundwoodconsumption in households, establishments andindustry.

Vulnerability assessment andadaptationThe six critical priorities of the Indian planningprocess are:� Economic security� Energy security

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GeographicHierarchyStrategies

CapacityBuilding

Knowledge/Information

Institutions/PartnershipsPolicy/Instruments

Technology

Local

Monitoring, observationAwareness/assessment at state/district/ community levelsLocale-specific databases,scenarios and assessment,local monitoring networks

Community initiatives, Earlywarning networksLocale specific adaptationplans, community-basedadaptation programmes

Locale-specific technologyadaptation

National

Scientific assessment,measurement, models, nationalresearch agendaResearch networks, Nationaldatabases (e.g., NATCOM),scientific and policy models,national scenarios, technologyinventory

Stakeholders networks, public/private programsScience-policy linkage, economicinstruments (e.g., insurance, R&Dfunds), integration with nationaldevelopment/ planning processTargeted R&D, technologytransfer protocols, demonstration/pilot projects

Regional/Global

Participation in global/regional modelling andassessmentsInterface with IPCCassessments, interfacingwith regional/globaldatabases, scenarios andassessments, technologyinventory databaseUNFCCC processes, trans-boundary impact assessmentsAdaptation funds, trans-boundary regulations

Scientific exchange,technology transfer

Table 7.3: Key tasks for addressing vulnerability and adaptation needs.

� Environmental security� Water security� Food security, and� Provision of shelter and health for all.

Climate change would impact all of these in varyingdegrees. Linking of these priority concerns withclimate change policies is the key to harmonizingsustainable development and climate change actions.Research has been initiated under the Initial NationalCommunication project to assess the potential impactsof climate change on some of these concerns, such asIndian agriculture, water resources, forestry, coastalzones, natural ecosystems, human health, industry andinfrastructure, including the construction of consistentclimate change scenarios for India and the assessmentof extreme events using existing models and expertize.The work involves assimilation of existing researchwork, identification of vulnerable sectors and areas,and a few specific case studies for each sector. Timeand budgetary resources available under the projectconstrained the coverage and in-depth sectoral impactassessment studies under this activity. The lack of dataand national databases, resource scarcity, sub-regional

and sectoral impact assessment scenarios, lack ofmodelling efforts and trained manpower, and limitednational and regional networking of institutes andresearchers, constitute some of the constraints.

The key tasks to address vulnerability and adaptationmay be viewed in the matrix of strategies andgeographic hierarchy (Table 7.3). Climate change isa long-term issue, i.e., the change in climaticparameters and their impacts would continue toexacerbate over decades and centuries. Therefore, thetype and intensity of interventions would enhancewith the expiry of time.

Research and systematicobservation

Weather, climate and oceanographicresearchThe main thrust for Indian atmospheric andoceanographic research is committed to enhance theknowledge of the Asian summer monsoon undervarious objectives viz. the climate modelling,monsoon studies, climatic tele-connections,

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predictability of weather and climate, climate changeand related socioeconomic impacts, severe weathersystems, middle and upper atmosphere, boundarylayer and land surface processes, observation system,data archive and dissemination.

The main thrust of research in the atmosphericsciences in India is to improve the capabilities of theexisting GCMs and paleao-climatological models, tosimulate the past, present and future of the Asiansummer monsoon under the projectedbiogeophysiological changes. The parameterizationof sub-grid scale physical processes, includingconvection and land surface processes to improve theskill of models and inclusion of orography, are anotherthrust area. Improving the model resolution for betterunderstanding of the monsoon is also considered asthe main objective in modeling research. Otherobjectives are to resolve several important monsoonphases, like active and break phases, interannualvariability, monsoon trough, intertropicalconvergence, southern hemispheric equatorial trough,easterly jet and low level jet. The interaction betweenthe tropics and extra tropics in the monsoon region isyet to be understood, which include the role ofblocking, shifts of the westerly jet and other majoranomalies in the circulations of both the hemispheres.The development of physical and mathematicalmodels of energy and mass exchange in the boundarylayer of agro ecosystems and other land surfaceprocesses are also projected for the near future.

A detailed analysis of the ENSO-Monsoonrelationship using Tropical-Ocean-Global-Atmosphere (TOGA) and other support from theWorld Climate Research Program (WCRP) isprojected. Understanding the synoptic scale andmesoscale phenomena in the monsoon region usingsatellite cloud imagery/ Ocean-Land-Remote sensingdata, radar and other conventional data, etc., isproposed. Kinematics and the dynamical study ofdifferent phases, such as onset, progression,withdrawal, break and active phases, is alsoconsidered as a thrust area. The interrelationshipbetween the monsoon and other global circulationsis to be explored using a statistical approach. Adetailed study of the winter monsoon in India, whichis the least studied part in Indian meteorology, isproposed as an important task to enhance our

knowledge base and to improve the winter agriculturesystem.

Instrumental capabilities are to be improved bydeveloping various ground-based remote-sensingsystems, such as lidars, sodars, spectrometers,photometers and radiometers. These are supposed toenhance the capability of studying minor species andtrace gases, including aerosols, ozone, CO2 etc. Therole of CO2 and other such constituents in theevolution of atmospheric processes leading to theclimate of the given region is to be studied forunderstanding the atmosphere-biosphere reactions.

Extreme eventsUnder the theme of extreme events, studies on thepre-monsoon thunderstorm activities in the north-eastern region of India, intense vortices within themonsoon system, such as lows, depressions, midtropospheric cyclones and offshore vortices areimportant.

To lower the impact of loss due to cyclonic activities,Doppler radars are being installed along the Indiancoast with the use of multi-sensor instrumented aircraftflights. Further, three-dimensional models are also beingdeveloped for the simulation and prediction of cyclones.Support is being taken from physical factors or synopticfeatures for studying the cyclones favourable for thedevelopment and movement of cyclones over the Indianseas, with particular interest like re-curvature andlooping, formation and maintenance of the cycloneeye. Associated phenomenon, such as storm surges,are also being modelled.

Agriculture sector researchThe future pathway for agriculture research includes:inventorization, characterization and monitoring ofnatural resources using modern tools and techniques.The development of sustainable land-use plans foreach agro-ecological sub-region in the country isunderway. Another agenda is to develop a system,which regulated the fertilizers usage by increasingthe fertilizer-use efficiency by 8-10 per cent from thecurrent level and its integrated use with organics andby enhancing the contribution of organics includingbio-fertilizers. The management and monitoring ofsoils for sustainability, on-farm irrigation watermanagement to enhance water-use efficiency,

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refinement of technology for economical utilizationof poor and marginal quality water for agriculture,development of location-specific model watershedsin various agro-ecological zones of the rain-fed areasto enhance the productivity, are decided for the future.

Weather-based expert systems for enhanced predictionand improvement in agriculture meteorology advisoryservices are planned for the near future. Increasingthe overall cropping intensity with an emphasis onenergy efficiency and alternate agriculture, especiallywith low water requiring crops is proposed to beinvestigated. The Development of agro-forestrysystems to enhance tree cover in agricultural lands tosupport the supply of fodder, fuel, industrial woodand small timber requirements on a sustainable basis,monitoring of climate change and mitigation of itsadverse effects on agricultural production systems, isalso planned.

Space sciencesThe ISRO has initiated the development of manyfuture satellites with particular emphasis onmeteorological and oceanographic objectives (Table7.4). In the next five years, it has a mandate to launchsatellites with advanced payloads.

Sustenance and enhancement ofestablished capacitiesCapacity building, networking and resourcecommitment form the core of institutionalizing Indianclimate change research initiatives. This involves ashared vision for policy relevant climate changeresearch, scientific knowledge and institutionalcapacity strengthening (enhanced instrumentation,modelling tools, data synthesis and data management),

technical skill enhancements of climate changeresearchers, inter-agency collaboration andnetworking improvement, and medium- to long-termresource commitment.

Several anchors have to be developed for thesustenance and enhancement of established capacitiesin India, based on policy needs and disciplines. Policyresearch includes diverse needs such as internationalclimate change negotiation-related research,contribution to the IPCC process, sub-regionalsectoral and integrated impact assessment, adaptation/response strategy formulation, mechanisms formitigation and adaptation project selection andfinancing, and climate-friendly technologyidentification and diffusion in multiple sectors.

Sporadic research efforts are continuing in India sincethe last decade, such as the Asia Least costGreenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS)initiative; independent climate change-relatedresearch initiatives by government ministries such asthe MoEF, Ministry of Water Resources, Ministry ofHealth and Family Welfare, MoA and MST amongothers; and the National Communication project; apartfrom a few initiatives at the individual expert andinstitution level. Many Indian scientists andresearchers have contributed and continuecontributing significantly to the IPCC process. India’sInitial National Communication project has, for thefirst time, brought these together in a formal networkto cover diverse research areas such as preliminarysub-regional sectoral impact assessments, GHGemission coefficient development for a few key sourcecategories, and institutional networking.

Name To be launched Usageduring

CARTOSAT-2 2004-2005 Remote-sensing satelliteINSAT 3 series 2004-2005 Meteorology, telecommunications, extension programmesRISAT-1 2005-2006 Remote-sensing satelliteOCEANSAT-2 2006-2007 Remote-sensing satelliteASTROSAT 2005-2006 Astrophysics, environment, meteorologyKALPANA 2 2005-2006 Meteorology, environmentMEGHA-TROPIQUES 2006-2007 Meteorology, oceanography, environment

Table 7.4: Future directions (Meteorological and Oceanographic Satellites).

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However, the procedures, methodologies, and datarequirements for GHG inventory preparation are notknown to most of the institutions generating activitydata in various sectors. On the other hand, a fewresearch teams in the country have the latestinternational expertize in preparing GHG inventories.The NATCOM project had attempted to network thetwo. However, the capacity-building initiatives haveto be continued, widened and strengthened. Theexisting capacity gaps have to be identified, prioritizedand then strengthened gradually. The focus has to beto institutionalize the process. Climate changeresearch has to catch the attention and imagination ofthe younger Indian research community, especiallyin the universities and premier academic institutions,and then to keep these researchers engaged in theirpursuit. There have to be sustained capacity-buildingefforts for a reasonable time, so that the process thenbecomes self-sustaining and institutionalized. Timelyand sustained international funding is critical to realizethis effort.

Initial institutional networks have been establishedand are operational under the NATCOM project.There are 19 institutions involved with GHGinventory estimation, while 17 research teams havecontributed to measurement of emission coefficientsin various sectors. Over 40 institutions contributedto the research initiatives on climate changevulnerability assessment and adaptation, and steps toimplement the Convention (refer Annexures). Theseefforts have to be sustained. However, there are manymore institutions in India that have individualresearchers working on climate change-relatedaspects. Industrial associations and the private sectorhave also to be brought in for activity data reporting,along with government ministries and departmentsfor consistent reporting formats. Private accreditedlaboratories have to be brought in to strengthen thegovernment institutions-based GHG emissioncoefficient measurement activities. There aretherefore, many potential partners and future centresof climate change research. Thus, it is necessary tobroaden the existing networks to include all theseresearch initiatives. This is important for creating acritical mass of researchers that would sustain climatechange research in India. Networking mechanisms,particularly like data and information sharing, willrequire to be established and institutionalized. This

would avoid duplication of effort, especially in datacollection, and ensure effective resource utilization.

The networking efforts may have to be simultaneouslyextended to interface the research community withindustry and policy-makers. Industry would benefitfrom the latest scientific research and GHGaccounting practices. On the other hand, industryconcerns and capabilities would also be reflected inresearch.

CLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTS

Improvements for future nationalcommunicationsIndia would like to immediately launch the activitiesfor preparing the Second National Communication,reflecting its commitment to the UNFCCC. Indiaseeks further funding from the GEF for this purpose.Some of the proposed projects are indicated in Table7.5. These include projects on improving inventoryestimation, vulnerability assessment and adaptationresearch, and capacity building. However, this is onlyan indicative and not an exhaustive list.

Thematic project proposalsSome thematic potential project concepts that are overand above the specific projects presented in earliersections are presented. These include projects forassessment of vulnerability of various socioeconomicsectors and natural ecosystems to climate change,enhancing adaptation to climate change impacts, GHGemission abatement projects, and capacity-buildinginitiatives (Table 7.6). These however, are indicativeand not an exhaustive listing of concepts. Newunderstanding, knowledge development, resourcesand technology transfers will enhance India’s capacityto augment this list in subsequent nationalcommunications. India needs financial assistance toconvert these project concepts into specific projectsfor funding.

It is envisaged that activities to enable continuousreporting to the UNFCCC will involve more detaileddevelopment of local emission factors, thusreducing uncertainties in inventory estimates,focus on methodological issues, help developregular monitoring networks, maintain andenhance national capacity through establishment

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S.No

A

B

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

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Type/ Sector

NationalCommunication

NationalCommunication

All sectors

Energy

Energy

Energy andIndustrial processesAgriculture

LULUCF

LULUCF

LULUCF

Waste

Energy

Energy

Title

Preparation of Second NationalCommunication proposaldocumentEnabling activities for thepreparation of India’s SecondNational Communication to theUNFCCC

Data format preparation forGHG inventory reporting

Strengthen the activity data forGHG emission estimates fromIndia’s transport sectorGHG emission measurementsand activity data assessment forbiomass used for energypurposeGHG inventory estimation

Inventory Estimation

Land-use pattern assessmentfor India for GHG inventoryestimation

Assessment of woodconsumption in India for GHGinventory estimationAssessment of carbon pools inIndia for GHG inventoryestimationActivity data improvement forthe waste sector.

Development of CO2 emissionfactors, linking coal beds withpower plants, andimpacts on their immediateenvironment, dispersion andtransportation of emittedpollutants

Development of mass emissionmeasurement system for GHGfrom the automotive vehicles.

Description

The project will assist India in preparing a detailed proposal for‘Enabling Activities for the preparation of India’s Second NationalCommunication to the UNFCCC’The project will assist India in undertaking the enabling activities toprepare the Second National Communication to the UNFCCC and tobuild capacity to fulfil its commitments to the Convention on acontinuing basis.

Presently the data being reported by the various ministries anddepartments at resources and sectors level shows some mismatch andthe consistency cannot be easily verified. It is imperative that theavailable data formats be reorganized for reporting data at intra andinter ministerial levels in appropriate GHG inventory reportingformats.Analysis of the current vehicle types and their distribution in variouscities of the country and fuel use. The railways, aviation and thewaterways sectors will also be covered.GHG emission measurements and activity data assessment forbiomass used for energy purpose

Data collection and GHG inventory estimation to climb the tierladder to 2/3 tiers from the current Tier 1 for the various sub-sectorsEvaluation of sources and sinks of GHG related to agriculturalactivities at disaggregated level, including data collection andvalidation of age-wise livestock, water regime-wise rice paddycultivation, sub-regional crop production, sub-regional syntheticfertilizer use.Periodically monitoring and estimating the area under different foresttypes as well as to prepare a land-use change matrix, describing theextent of land-use change from one category to another, preferably at1/2

0×1/2

0

Estimating the fuelwood and commercial roundwood consumption,dung cake production and consumption, and agriculture crop residueconsumption in IndiaEstimating different terrestrial carbon pools, namely vegetationbiomass, soil and litter carbon stocks under various land usecategories and assess changes in C-poolsData collection and GHG inventory estimation to climb the tierladder to 2/3 tiers from the current Tier 1 for the various sub-sectors

(a) Power sector is one of the major contributors to the Indian CO2

emissions. This project envisages GHG emission measurements from40 power plants (coal and gas based).(b) Evaluation of the changing sectors of coal use,including small-scale sectors. Investigation of characteristics of coal in the country,linking them to the various coalfields. Comparative evaluation of thereliability of emission measurements by direct measurement,traditional mass balance approach and the Continuous MonitoringSystem.(c) Carry out dispersal modelling and ascertain the levels ofemissions in and around the plants. Explore the sequestrationpotential of planned forest cover around the plants.This will involve development and integration of techniques andsystems for measurement of GHGs (CO2

, CH4

, N2O) along with direct

toxic emissions (CO, HC, NOX and PM) for conventional and

Table 7.5: Project proposals for improvements of future National Communications.

Activity data for GHG inventory

B.2 Uncertainty reduction in inventory estimation

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12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

Energy andindustrial process

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Industrial Processes

Industrial Processes

Agriculture

Agriculture

Agriculture

Agriculture

Agriculture

LULUCF

GHG emission measurementfrom large point sources—steelplants and cement plants

GHG emission measurementfrom large point sources—Petroleum RefineriesMethane emission measure-ments from the coal minesMethane emissionmeasurement from oil andnatural gas venting, flaring andtransportGHG emission measurementfrom informal/partiallyinformal energy intensivesectors

Reduction of uncertainties inGHG emissions factor in limeand cement sectors in India

GHG emission coefficientmeasurements from industrialprocessesNitrous oxide emission fromselected agricultural fields ofrice and paddy

(a) Measurement of CH4 andN2O emission coefficients forrice cultivation(b) Development of emissioncoefficient of non-CO2 gasemissions from majoragriculture crop residueMeasurement of CH4 and N2Oemission coefficient fromenteric fermentation in animalsand manure management.Measurement of N2O emissioncoefficients from major soiltypes in IndiaSoil carbon content assessment

CO2 emission and uptakemeasurements in specific foresttypes/areas to ascertain theirnet sink capacity

S.No Type/ Sector Title Description

alternative fuels. Measurements and data generation foremission factors in gm/km of about 60 vehicle technologies andvintage combinations. Procurement and commissioning ofmeasurement and sampling systems for GHGs.Due to high requirement of coking coal for steel production, the steelsector has a very high emissions per unit of production andcontributes substantially to Indian CO2 emissions. Similarly cementproduction contributes significantly to energy and process based CO2

emissions. This project envisages GHG emission measurements from10 steel plants and 30 cement plants. The process-based emissionswill be distinguished and will be measured separately.GHG emission measurements from five petroleum refineries.

Cover a 100 coal mines, including opencast mining for methaneemission coefficient measurements.Cover all the major oil exploration sites in India

GHG emission measurements from fully/partially informal energy-intensive sectors like brick manufacturing, sugar and ceramics etc.About 10 sectors are proposed to be covered here. The major onesbeing brick (sample about a 100 kilns), sugar (sample about 50units), soda ash (sample about five units), textile (sample about 20units), ceramics (sample about 30 units), and chemical and dyes(sample about 30 units).This project will help to reduce the uncertainties in CO2 emissioncoefficients derived for the first phase of NATCOM. The workprogramme will entail systematic collection of CO2 fluxes, samplesof raw materials, intermediate and final products for analysis. About50 cement plants representing prevalent technologies for producingcement in India will be covered.GHG emission coefficient measurements from industrial processeslike nitric acid production, aluminium production, soda ash use andpulp and paper production.Irrigated rice and dry land farming are major sources of CH4

and N2O

in selected agroecological zones consisting of irrigated as well as dryland farming. The project will measure CH4 and N2O emissioncoefficients from these.This will involve setting up a network of stations for continuous andmore refined measurement of these emissions for the entire season ofrice growth and year, assessment of fertilizer used, types of cultivarsplanted, soil carbon etc., to ascertain the dependence of CH4 and N2Oemissions on these parameters. Also individual measurements ofchanges in CH4 emission under increased CO2 environment using theFACE facility will be carried out.This will involve establishment of CH4 emission coefficients fromdifferent types of animal categories in India, with the focus on themajor emitters and N2O emission coefficients measured fromdifferent types of manure management.This will involve establishment of network of stations for taking yearlong measurements of N2O for representative soil types in India.To assess the organic carbon contents of Indian agricultural soils at1/2

0 x 1/2

0 grid.

(a) This will involve the establishment of towers inside and outsideforests fitted with on-line CO2 measuring equipments and weatherparameters, including temperature, humidity and wind direction.(b) Determination of the rate of photosynthesis, transpiration, leafarea and canopy cover of different native and planted species vis-à-vis reduction in GHGs especially, CO2.

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S.No Type/ Sector Title Description

25

26

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

LULUCF

LULUCF

Waste

Waste

All

Climate ChangeModelling

Indian EmissionScenarios

Various relevantsectors

Agriculture

Soil carbon measurements, Soilcarbon cycle modelling remotesensing and generation of GISbased-mapping of land use forIndian forest

Uncertainty Reduction

Measurement of emissioncoefficients from domesticand commercial waste water

Methane emission fromselected landfill sites

Undertake climate changerelated environmental studies(background measurements)

Generation of highresolution regional climatechange scenarios andinvestigating its impact onthe Indian monsoon and onextreme climate events

Generation of future GHGemission scenarios for India

Development of vulnerabilityand adaptation scenarios forIndia

Assessment of vulnerability ofthe Indian agriculture sector

(a) Setting up of a network of stations for measuring soil carbonfor different soil types in India. The measurements will becarried out according to the IPCC specification of soil depths.(b) Carbon cycle modelling will be developed.(c) To get a perspective of the land use and forestry of the Indo-Gangetic region of India, GIS-based maps will be developed bydecoding remote-sensed data for use in emission inventory from thissource in the future.Generating Emission Factor/Sequestration Factors for GHGinventory in the LULUCF sector of India.(a) Measurement of CH4 emission coefficient from domestic wastewater with distinctive composition(b) Measurement of CH4 emission coefficients from representativemajor affluent producing industries.Methane measurements will be carried out in identified major landfillsites in cities with population greater than one million. The likelycities to be selected for this study will be: Mumbai, Delhi, Chennai,Kolkata, Bangalore, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad in India, wheresystematic collection and dumping of solid waste takes place.Continuous in-situ monitoring of concentrations of GHGs (CO2, N2Oand CH4) from base line stations at Kodaikanal and Shillong usingGas Chromatographic Analysers. Regional grab samplingprogramme for GHGs using stainless steel sampling flasks and GasChromatographic analysis from a central laboratory.

(a) This will involve detailed diagnostic analysis of climate modelcontrol runs to assess the skill in simulation of present day climateand its variability over India;(b) Analysis of perturbed simulations with IS92a/SRES emissionscenarios to quantify the climate change pattern over India withreasonable high resolution during the 21st century;(c) Application of regionalization techniques to improve theassessment of climate change on regional scale;(d) Study of the sensitivity of monsoon climate to natural/anthropogenic perturbations by model output diagnostics andnumerical experiments;(e) Perform climate change experiments with global AOGCMs aswell as regional climate models, with special emphasis on thedevelopment of realistic scenarios for the Indian region;(f) Examination of the nature of possible changes in the frequencyand intensity of severe weather and climate events (e.g., droughts/floods, cyclonic storms).(g) Interaction with various impact assessment groups and designspecific climate change data products for use in their models throughworkshops and meetings;(h) Warehouse for storage of all validated and downscaledAOGCM data products for South Asia, designed for regionalclimate change impact assessment, high-resolution scenario datafor different administrative units of India (e.g., states) andprovide regular up gradation to keep pace with developments inthe area.Articulation of alternate development pathways for India andquantification of key driving forces. These alternate scenarios will becongruent to IPCC-SRES scenarios and Indian climate changescenarios.Develop sub-regional vulnerability and adaptation scenarios forIndia which integrate the cross linkages between different sectors ofthe economy. These scenarios will be congruent to the Indian climatechange and emission scenarios.(a) Studying the impacts of enhanced level of CO2 using Mid-FACE

B.3 Vulnerability assessment and adaptationn

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S.No Type/ Sector Title Description

34

35

36

37

38

39

40

41

42

Water Resources

Water Resources

LULUCF

Natural Ecosystems

Human Health

Extreme Events andCoastal Zones

Energy

Energy andInfrastructure

Energy andInfrastructure

due to impacts of climatechange and formulation ofadaptation strategies.

To study the impact of climatechange on the water resourcesand to develop adaptationstrategies

Reducing uncertainties inassessing climate changevariability and extreme eventssuch as droughts and floods inIndia

To study the impact of climatechange on forestry andformulate adaptation strategies

To study the impacts of climatechange on natural ecosystems,such as the Sunderbans

To study the impacts of climatechange on human healthImpacts of climate changeand extreme events on coastalzones

Integrated model developmentfor assessment of impacts onenergy sector

Impacts of climate change onenergy and infrastructure in thecountry

Development of urban policyresponse for integratingclimate change and sustainabledevelopment

facility in the country on grain yield of cereals important to theeconomy (rice and wheat). The cereals under each categoryshould be of different types of cultivars.(b) Incorporating these results into modelling(c) Case study to understand the impacts of climate change onimportant crops in the country using the modelling approach andformulating a matrix of alternate cultivar/cropping pattern/farmingpractices etc., to adapt to climate change.(a) A national assessment of water resources taking into account theclimate change.(b) To identify future water scarce zones in the country.(c) To undertake case studies in some of the anticipated water scarcezones in the country and devise adaptation strategies for availingwater.Enhancing the temporal and spatial resolutions of GCM/ RCMsmodels to be more specific to India and using the precipitation andtemperature series thus generated, as input to hydrologic models forforecasting droughts/ floods’ variability and extremes in: select waterstressed river basins (Sabarmati in Gujarat and Palar in Tamil Nadu),and select flood prone basins—Ganges and Meghna.Develop current (and past) climate and vegetation type linkages,correlation’s and geographic maps of distribution. Evaluate, adaptand develop vegetation response models suitable for the complex,diverse vegetation types in India. Assess the vulnerability of differentecosystems to different scenarios of climate change. Assess theimpacts of different climate change scenarios on vegetationecosystems in terms of shifts in boundary, changes in area,biodiversity, regeneration and growth rates, and carbon sink capacity.Evaluate different adaptation options and implementation barriers toreduce adverse impacts of climate change. Develop policy,institutional and financial measures to implement adaptationmeasures.This will involve study and modelling of impacts of climate changeincluding sea-level rise on the dominant forest species inSundarbans. Modelling the impacts of sea-level rise on appearanceand disappearance of islands in the Sundarban area.This will involve identification of areas where malaria and diseasesrelated to extreme heat or cold events will be prevalent in the futureclimate scenarios. Identification of communities most susceptible toclimate change. Undertaking case studies integrating climate changeand socioeconomic scenarios. Development of adaptation matrix tocombat the impacts of climate change.(a) This study will include development of a sea-level rise scenariodue to climate change along the coastline of India. Study on impactsof sea-level rise on specifically densely populated and area withimportant infrastructure.(b) Impacts of sea-level rise on fisheries.Developing software modules for impact assessment of climatechange on energy sector and ‘soft linking’ the same with models ofinventory estimation to obtain an integrated view.(a) This study will involve specific case studies to evaluate theimpacts of climate change on the energy availability and urbaninfrastructure in India.(b) Evaluation of adaptation strategies including insurance to combatthe impacts.This will involve identification of issues in urban areas relevant toclimate change and a development of methodology for linking themto sustainable development.

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S.No Type/ Sector Title Description

B.4 Capacity building/ enhancement

43

44

45

46

47

48

49

InventoryEstimation

InventoryEstimation

VulnerabilityAssessment andAdaptation

Energy

All sectors

All Sectors

LULUCF

To establish a GHG referencelaboratory for generating anddisseminating certifiedreference materials

Nodal centre for synthesis andcoordination of uncertaintyreduction in GHG emissions

Integrated impact assessmentfor India, including long-termemission scenarios, GHGabatement policies andadaptation measures.

Setting up of an Indian energysystems model for medium-and long-term energy andenvironmental policy

Organizational and institutionalissues for climate change

Educating and informing thecorporate sector about theemission abatementtechnologies and projects.Modelling efforts

(a) This will involve the preparation and dissemination of gas-CRMs of CO2, CH4, and N2O. Calibration of Gas Chromatographs(GCs) used for baseline monitoring for above gases.(b) Preparation of uncertainty budget for baseline monitoring forabove gases for homogenization of uncertainty of measurements.Validation of test methods and organization of proficiency testsfor measurement of the above gases.This centre will essentially validate, synthesize and ensure theapplication of good practices for uncertainty management andquality assurance and quality control. Periodic training will beconducted to update researchers on the latest good practice guidancetechniques for undertaking measurements and also train personnelfor undertaking measurements in various sectors. Following theguidance specified by the IPCC Good practices report, this agencywill act as a third party for implementing the QA measures.Develop an integral impact assessment modelling framework forIndia using sectoral models, consistent scenarios and databases. It isproposed to deploy modular integration, i.e., integrating modulesconsisting of individual sectoral models, run using similar climate,emission and socioeconomic scenarios. The basic thrust will be ongenerating common and finely gridded databases for use in models.Economy-energy-environment modelling using Indian emissionscenarios and shared databases developed under other projects.Major outputs will include the projection of alternate GHG emissionpathways, energy intensities, technology and fuel mix, and energysector investment requirements for India in medium to long term.Creating awareness at all levels (grassroot to policy) on climatechange, vulnerability and adaptation issues for industry andinfrastructure, energy, agriculture, LULUCF sectors, through sectoralworkshops in various (vulnerable) regions of the country;dissemination; publication, etc.(a)Create awareness about climate change in the business sector,especially on impacts on industry, cleaner production, CDM, etc.b)Role of insurance as a tool of adaptation for long-life assets.

Develop technical and institutional capacity for modelling,monitoring and verification of C-stock changes in LULUCF projectsinvolving: developing models for predicting changes in stocks ofdifferent pools in different types of forestry projects; build capacitiesof institutions to undertake these activities; assisting projectdevelopers and project promoters; and, developing informationpackages.

of nodal centres for climate change research,impact assessment and adaptation-relatedactivities, and increase public awareness throughinformation dissemination and education. Thefollowing thematic activity areas may be coveredto strengthen the scientific capacity in India torespond to climate change challenges and lay thefoundation for further national communicationsand implementation of the Convention.

� Establishment of systematic observation networksfor monitoring emissions of GHGs, other trace

gases and pollutants� Improvement in GHG emission estimates in key

sectors for improved future nationalcommunication by regular monitoring andmeasurement of emission coefficients in theenergy, transport, industry, agriculture, forestry andwaste sectors.

� Development of high-resolution regional climatescenarios for India.

� Development of socioeconomic scenarios for India� Institutional and human capacity building for

undertaking research on Integrated Impact

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Table 7.6: Research and demonstration project proposals for adaptation, vulnerability assessmentand abatement.

S.No

A

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

13

Sector

Adaptation

Agriculture

LULUCF

LULUCF

LULUCF

LULUCF

Coastal Zones

Agriculture

WaterResourcesAgriculture,Forestry andWater ResourcesIndustry

Agriculture

All

All

Title

Crop insurance andclimate changeVegetation modelling

Ecosystem modelling

Adaptation policiesfor forest ecosystems

Assisting adaptationfor vulnerable plantspecies

Integrated adaptationpolicies for coastalzones

Small and marginalfarmersArid and semi-aridregionsConventionaladaptation practices

Research oninnovationsAgronomicmanagement

Integrated impactassessment modelingfor India

Extreme events andidentification of

Description

Research to understand performance of various insurance models to developcomprehensive crop insurance packages for Indian farmers.Develop, validate and disseminate dynamic vegetation models for assessing impactof climate change on the forest ecosystem at the regional level, including: theevaluation of existing dynamic vegetation models; adaptation/ modification/development of dynamic vegetation models for application at regional scales;validation for current climate and vegetation; and, dissemination of informationpackage on the dynamic vegetation model.Long-term monitoring of vegetation response in Himalayan Ecosystem/WesternGhats with wide altitudinal gradient to changing climate, along the latitudinal andaltitudinal gradient, specifically including: monitoring climate changes and monitorvegetation changes; establishing linkages between climate change variables and forestvegetation characteristics.To assess the impact of forest policies, programmes and silvicultural practices, toenhance resilience or reduce the vulnerability of Himalayan Ecosystems/ WesternGhats with wide altitudinal gradient forest ecosystem to projected climate change.Specifically it will include: review of forest policies, programmes and silviculturalpractices in selected regions; suggesting policies, programmes and silviculturalpractices to reduce vulnerability of forest ecosystems; assessing the implications ofbiodiversity, silvicultural practices and dominant species to determine thevulnerability of forest ecosystems.Anticipatory planting of vulnerable plant species in Himalayan Ecosystems/ WesternGhats to adapt to projected climate change involving: identifying vulnerable specieswhich are likely to migrate; planting along altitudinal gradient; monitoringperformance of species; and making recommendations on anticipatory plantingpractices.Identifying points of integrating the adaptation policy, having elements of both coastalzone management and sustainable development, into national, regional and localdevelopmental planning and policies. Specifically, it will include: review of otherpolicies—disaster abatement plans, land-use plans, watershed resource plans;understanding ‘local livelihood stresses’, induced due to environmental factors suchas groundwater degradation due to sea water intrusion, coastal flooding and erosion;understanding and documenting the local traditional knowledge systems used incombating these non-climatic stresses and climate change induced enhancedvariability and extremes in flooding.Develop suitable adaptation policy and implementation of a few pilot schemes toenhance the adaptive capacities of small and marginal farmers in India.Developing check-dams and water harvesting demonstration projects in each of thearid and semi-arid districts in India.Develop a compendium of rational indigenous and traditional practices on adaptationin selected sectors like agriculture, forestry, water resources (floods and droughts)in various agro-ecological regions of India.Research on adaptation innovations in Indian industry for adaptation to climatechange impacts.To evaluate alternate agronomic management options to sustain the agriculturalproduction in relation to changed soil moisture availability in flood and droughtprone regions.Developing integrated assessment models for India to assess the impacts of climatechange and corresponding adaptation requirement, in addition to understandingpossible abatement and adaptation measures, in various sectors —water resources,agriculture, terrestrial and marine ecosystems, human health, human settlements,energy, and industry.

Impact assessment to address a range of possible increase in temperature scenariosin floods, cyclones and droughts prone regions, as these different geographical

B Vulnerability

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S.No Sector Title Description

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

22

23

24

25

26

All

Infrastructure,Industry

Energy

Agriculture

Water

Agriculture

Water resources

Water resources

Water resources

Water resources

Industry andinfrastructure

Agriculture

Agriculture,Forestry andWater Resources(livelihoods)

vulnerable regions inIndiaEconomic scenariosand vulnerability toClimate ChangeClimate changeimpact on coastalinfrastructure andIndustriesImpact of ClimateChange on energydemand and resultantchange in emissionpatternSoil and cropproductivityImpacts of climatechange on waterresources ontransportation sectorof agriculture goodsDeveloping geneticmodified species

Assessing the effectof global warming onmajor Indian riversand aquifersImpact of climatechange on wateravailability inHimalayan glaciersand riversDeveloping hot-spot(extreme scarcity)areas in waterresources sector anddeveloping micro-level (household andcommunity level)assessments ofvulnerability andimpacts of droughtsMapping vulnerablepopulation due toclimate changeimpacts on waterresources

Assessment ofImpacts on industryand infrastructure

Gridded databasegenerationAsset vulnerabilityassessment

regions are expected to experience variability in temperature changes due toclimate change.Conducting scenario based studies for various possibilities of extent of climatechange impacts, e.g., for a range of increase in temperatures, rise in sea waterlevel, deforestation, economic growth and emissions, and abatement efforts etcCoastal infrastructure is most vulnerable to the sea-level rise and extremeevents. India has many industrial complexes close to the coastal areas. Theinfrastructure such as roads, railway lines, and ports will be adversely affectedby the changing rainfall pattern and extreme events.Increase in temperature and changing climate is likely to affect the energy demand.Almost all the sectors will experience change in the demand based on the location.The increased demand for energy will also affect the resultant emissions, as most ofthe increased demand will be fulfilled by the power sector, which depends primarilyon coal.Evaluating the impact of climate change and its variability on soil and crops’productivity (five years).Mapping the existing inter-state flow volume of agriculture goods and assessingimpact of ‘drought’ conditions on reduction in transportation and assessingopportunities for adapting to shortfalls in agriculture production relative to foodsecurity.

Will involve developing species and conducting trials of the same, and disseminatingthe findings through bio-technological advances for improving crop yields in droughtprone statesThis study will assess aquifers and their behaviour in Indian peninsula vis-à-vistheir exploitation for water and hence GHG emissions.

Himalayan glaciers and rivers have an important role in the Indian water supplysystem. Temperature increase due to climate change may bring about changes in theHimalayan ecosystem, which will alter the water availability for India in the short,medium and long term.

(a) This will involve preparing overlays of maps—such as drought hazard maps,groundwater development and degradation maps, surface water development, roadnetwork, state domestic product, state human development indices, andsuperimposing the same to assess hot-spots for detail assessment of micro levelvulnerability assessment(b) Based on the identification of hot-spot states as above, conducting field surveysin a 100 randomly proportionate stratified sampled villages in each state for a totalof 400 villages.

Mapping national level temporal (at five year intervals) and spatial (at state level)distribution of vulnerable population at risk at state level due to climate changeimpacts on water resources. This will involve mapping the current demographictrends in urban and rural population growths, overlaying the same with statedevelopmental plans on infrastructure in water supply sector and water sector reformsparameters.Assessing impacts on industry and infrastructure through preparation of a catalogueof historic extreme events, assessing the damages and providing the loss estimatesin coastal and inland areas, showing the spatial distribution; developing detail GISmap covers with topographic, vegetation and geological details showing the majorindustries and infrastructure systems and their components; and assessing sensitivitiesof different components with respect to various climate parameters.To characterize the extent of rainfall variability, surface and ground water availabilityin various agro-ecological regions of the country at 1/2

0 x 1/2

0 grid (or finer).

Research to understand vulnerability by assessing type and extent of variouslivelihood assets—social, physical, financial, institutional and natural—ofcommunities from various potential impact geographical regions.

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S.No Sector Title Description

27

28

29

30

31

32

33

34

35

36

Vulnerabilityassessment at coastalvillage level

Vulnerabilityassessment of areaswhere malaria hasbeen predicted to shiftin the climate changeAssessingvulnerability ofcommunities exposedto extreme heat

To study the level ofnon-coking coalbeneficiation and itsimpact on efficiencyimprovement/abatement of GHGemission in thermalpower stations.Validation of theMulti StageHydrogenation(MSH) technology forconverting coal to oilUtilization of GHG(CO2 and Methane)for production offuels and chemicals.

Abatement of GHGvia in situ infusion offly ash with CO2

in

thermal power plant:upscaling of theprocess vis- a- visassociated carbonsequestration andadoption.Minimization of CO2

and other pollutinggaseous levels bysuitably developingsoft coke technologyas the source of rural/semi-urban domesticenergyCleaner electricityproduction throughfuel cell technologyCO2 Sequestration ingeologic formationswith enhanced coalbed MethaneRecovery.

Assessing vulnerabilities of communities from a 100 villages along the coast toclimate change impacts by use of sustainable livelihood framework. Analyzing socialdynamics and institutional landscape to identify points of leverage for short-termand long-term adaptation interventions.Assessment of vulnerability of communities to be affected by malaria in areas above1800 m and in coastal areas will be the focus of this study. The accessibility tohealth facilities, and assessment of current adaptation practices and the policies ofthe government will be reviewed to understand the adaptation needs of the afflictedcommunities in the climate change regime.Extremely high temperatures have been recorded in recent times in northern , centraland south eastern parts of the country, which have caused mortality. A study will becarried out to identify areas which will experience recurrent intense heat due toclimate change and assessment will be made of adaptation needs of communities inthe climate change regime. For this, the current adaptation practices including thegovernment policies will be analyzed.

This will involve a detailed study of non-coking coals for identification ofquality parameters including combustion behaviour. Estimation of the impactof coal quality on the boiler efficiency. Quantitative assessment of the effectsof the variations of fuel quality on the performance of the critical sub-processesinvolved in power generation and GHG emission.

(a) The aim is to confirm the results of the batch reactor studies.(b) Establish viability of the process through generation of technical data requiredupscaling the process to higher scale.(c) Research for increasing the present yield of distillates from 60% higher yieldsbetween 85% - 90 %; commercial viability of this project.This will involve conversion of CH4 and CO2, producing syngas with low H2

/ CO

ratio, (nearer to one) which is highly desirable in gas to liquid fuels conversiontechnology using iron-based catalysts. Conversion of methane gas by developmentof solid acid catalysts based on heteropoly acids and other catalysts to value addedchemicals like methanol, formaldehyde and ethylene.(a) This will involve characterization of fly ash samples from 2-3 representativethermal power plants of the country in respect of various physico-chemical parametersincluding minerals and trace and heavy metals content. Carry out experiments, underlaboratory conditions, on CO2 infusion of these fly ashes at varying pressure.(b) Assessment of extent of infusion of fly ash and consumption of CO2 therein.Experiments on leaching characteristics of fly ashes (treated and untreated) withCO2 infusion following shake and column tests.

This will involve development of more energy efficient soft coke technology utilizinginferior coal. Development of suitable provisions for less emitting/arresting the GHG.Improvement of the present technology for making it more suitable for rural use.Generation of data /techno-economic as well as socioeconomic evaluation.Improvement in design/development of the fixed/movable domestic soft coke cook-stove in view of energy efficiency as well as emission of GHG

The present project will develop a 200 KW SOFC system operating at 8000 C. Theperformance of this system will be evaluated with reformed natural gas fuel as wellas with coal gas.This will involve examination of the potential for CO2 sequestration in geologicformations/un-mineable coal seams. Identification of un-mineable coal seams/geologic formations in India suitable for CO2 sequestration. Develop mathematicalmodels for reservoir simulation of CO2-CBM and a mathematical model for gas-water flow in coal beds.

Coastal zones

Health

Health

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

Energy

C Abatement/ Capacity development

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S.No Sector Title Description

Improvement insolar cell efficiency

Energy Penetration ofenergy efficienttechnologies

Energy/petroleumgeological storage ofCO2 in exploration/recovery of petroleumgas.Energy Removal/absorption of CO2

through absorptivemediaEnergy CO2

decompositionthrough plasmatechnologyEnergy andAgriculture recoveryof methane fromlandfills and paddyfields

Ecologically-friendlyand value added steelmaking process basedon VRDR-SAF-ESRroute

Non CO2 GHG

emission abatementfrom processindustries.Cost-effectiveabatement strategiesfor the Indianagriculture sectorEnhancingagroforestry in India

Energy plantation inIndia for GHGemission abatement

R&D studies to improve the efficiency of solar cells to 15% at commerciallevel and 20% at research level. This will be built on the ongoing programmeof the Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources.Demonstration projects for increased penetration of efficient technologies(supply and demand management based) such as, heat rate reduction, electricarc furnaces, energy efficient processes, efficient lighting and agriculture pump-sets, in order to enhance scale and acceptance of efficiency interventions forGHG emission abatement.This will involve injection of CO2 in the petrioleum wells for recovery of petroleumgas and other products.

This will involve the identification, characterization of different absorptive mediafor CO2 removal and its absorption in thermal power plants.

This will involve the use of an arc discharge device where CO2 will be dissociatedwith ionized to give rise to carbon and oxygen ions. A directionally aligned magneticfield can be used to separate the carbon and oxygen ions. The carbon ions so deflectedwith the help of magnetic field can be separately collected.This will involve the study of methane efflux in different seasons at various sites.The components of the measurements will include investigation on CH4 productionpotential of different methanogenic bacteria under different conditions, the processof augmentation of CH4 formation through biological and non-biological means,the suppression of CH4 oxidation through manipulation of edaphic factors and theuse of inhibitors.The study will also investigate and demonstrate the options for maximum recoveryof CH4 gas from landfills and paddy fields for heat and electricity production.The proposed process attempts use hot charging of DRI into submerged arc furnace(SAF)/ Electro-slag Crucible Melting Furnace (ESCF), from which the hot liquidsteel enters the electro-slag casting equipment to produce high quality alloyed steelproduct of near-net shapes. The process is expected to be environment friendly andtechno-economically attractive even on a medium scale of operation. The processhas the flexibility to treat various feed materials and produce a range of differentsteel products based on the local demand. Since the DRI-based route by-passes theconventional components such as coke and sinter making, the process would requiremuch less energy and would lead to substantial reduction in emission of CO2

to

the

atmosphere.Abatement demonstration projects in industries such as nitric acid, paper, adipicacid.

Developing abatement strategies for GHG reduction; socioeconomic evaluation ofthe abatement strategies; possible consequences of the suggested abatement optionson agro-ecological system (short- and long-term consequences).

Implementing agroforestry in dry land farms to increase the tree resources onfarms, increase the economic returns and to increase C-stocks in any rain fedregion/ states such as Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Madhya Pradeshand Haryana. The scale of the project would be 20,000 ha, covering about20,000 to 40,000 farms.Provide biomass sustainably for generation of biomass power, substitutingfossil-fuel energy in any of the states facing power shortage such as Karnataka,Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh and where power generation is mainly fromcoal-based power plants. The activities will involve: raising mixed speciesenergy plantations in about 6000 ha in a phased manner, using high yieldingpackage utilities; developing and implementing sustainable biomass harvestingpractices to supply feedstock to biomass power utilities; and, installing biomasspower plant of 20 MW and supplying electricity to meet the decentralizedpower needs.

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Energy andAgriculture

IndustrialProcesses

IndustrialProcesses

Agriculture

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S.No Sector Title Description

Carbon sinkenhancement andsustainabledevelopment invillagesLULUCF degradedforest regeneration

Mangrove ecosystemrehabilitation

Issues in technologytransfer for abatementof GHG emissions inIndiaFiscal instruments foremission abatementfrom Indian industryRole of technology inabatement andadaptation of climatechange impacts onenergy sectorCarbon sequestrationin agriculture soilsFuel switching

Industry energyefficiencyimprovementAgriculture entericfermentationEnergy CO2 captureand storageEcosystemdevelopment andconservationCarbon sequestration

Rehabilitate aridlandsRenewabletechnologiesRenewabletechnologiesRenewabletechnologiesWaste to energy

Renewabletechnologies

T&D lossesWaste to energyCarbon abatement

Carbon abatementCarbon abatementWaste to energy

Developing, implementing and disseminating an integrated and participatoryapproach to revegetation of village ecosystems for enhancing carbon sinks,conserving biodiversity and enhancing sustained flow of benefits to the localcommunities in the Western Ghats region in about 10,000 ha, extending over a 100villages.To sequester carbon by regenerating degraded sal forests of Orissa, West Bengal orBihar involving: regenerating degraded sal forests for timber and non-timber forestproducts; involving local communities in protection and management of regeneratingforests; and, promoting biodiversity.Rehabilitating about 20,000 ha degraded mangrove ecosystem in Orissa to protectthe coastal lands and sequester carbon involving: identifying degraded mangrove;protecting and regenerating mangroves; monitoring the biodiversity, growth rateand C-stock changesFacilitating transfer of technology from developed to developing countries. throughjoint research and development, and adoption.

Research and pilot projects.

Conduct intensive studies for abatement and adaptation of energy efficient technologyand methods and identify points of leverage in market chains and institutional regimesfor demand side management measures for abatement.

Research and demonstration projects to sequester carbon in agricultural soils byadopting appropriate land use options.Research and demonstration projects for penetration of low and no carbon fuels intransport sector.Research and demonstration of energy efficient technologies in energy intensiveSSI in India.

Research, development and demonstration of low-methane emitting feedsDemonstration project for CO2 capture and storage at one high concentration CO2

stream plant in India.

Integrated and participatory approach to revegetate village ecosystems in Karnatakafor carbon sink enhancement and biodiversity conservation through sustainedlivelihood development.Carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation in the Uttaranchal hills by holisticinitiatives in village agro-ecosystem.Integrated ecosystem approach to rehabilitate degraded arid and semi-arid lands ofwestern India for combating desertification.Rural electrification using solar photovoltaic technology-based mini-grids inecologically fragile and geographically inaccessible areas.Cleaner and efficient technology interventions in small and medium scale industriesin India, using biomass gasifier system.Increased market penetration of solar thermal technologies for low/medium gradeheating applications in IndiaEfficient utilization of organic solid wastes for energy and resource recovery andGHG abatement.Sustainable bagasse based cogenerated power distribution in the command Area ofShri Tatyasaheb Kore Warana Sahakari Shakkar Karkhana (STKWSSK) Ltd inTaluka Panhala, District Kolhapur, Maharashtra.Reduction in transmission and distribution lossesPower generation from refinery residues using IGCC technology.Reduction of carbon emission by renovation and modernisation of old coal-firedthermal power plants.Efficiency improvements in the Indian brick industry.Demonstration of coal gasification and supply of coal gas to tunnel kilns in pottery.492 MW IGCC power plant, based on refinery residue-vistar

LULUCF

LULUCF

LULUCF

Energy,Industry andInfrastructure,and WasteIndustry

Energy

Agriculture

Energy

Industry

AgricultureEnergy

LULUCF

LULUCF

LULUCF

Energy

Energy

Energy

Waste/Energy

Energy

EnergyEnergyEnergy

EnergyEnergyEnergy

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S.No Sector Title Description

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Energy

Energy

CO2 capture andstorage

Fuel Switching

Identification and carrying out geological mapping of potential areas for CO2

capture from large point sources and subsequent storage in India like insedimentary rocks, unmineable coal seams, depleted oil wells, etc to evaluate totalCO2 storage capacity available in the country and its long term implications.Design and development of zero emissions coal fired thermal power stationswherein coal will be gasified and CO will be converted in CO2 by shift reactionand hydrogen will be used for power generation employing fuel cell / turbineto get zero emission power.

Assessment and adaptation policy formulation forvarious sectors in India.

� Consolidation of indigenous efforts for climatechange abatement, including energy efficiencyimprovement efforts in various sectors, transfer ofcleaner technology, promoting the use of renewabletechnologies, etc.

� Clearing house for climate change related databasemanagement and processing

� Strengthening and building of human andinstitutional capacity in India for energy andenvironment sector modelling.

There is a need to form a network of stations, whichwill monitor the background GHG concentrations inpristine areas and also concentrations in pollutedareas. For this, measurement facilities need to be setup at pristine areas such as at high altitude Hanle inLadakh (the Himalayas), at Sundarbans in WestBengal, at Kodaikanal in Tamil Nadu, and theAndaman and Nicobar Islands in the Bay of Bengal.These stations need to run like the GlobalAtmospheric Watch (GAW) stations to measure theGHG concentrations continuously.

India has enormous potential for implementingclimate change projects. This is primarily because thepower sector in India is still predominantly coal basedand the vintage technology status in the power andtransport sector have considerable potential forefficiency improvements. Abatement projects aremainly in the areas of energy efficiency, renewableenergy and sustainable transports. The capacity todevelop bankable detailed project proposals can beenhanced in India. It is critical to ensure minimumperformance standards, codes and certification forenergy auditors. Energy managers in industries needtraining. Commercial banks also need to graduallybuild their own technical capacity. A project-financing

approach to lending has to be promoted rather thancollateral-based loan financing for energy efficiency.

Additionally, the forest sector provides large potentialfor the removal of carbon. Though the deforestationrate in India has reduced in the recent years, the vastdegraded lands can be used for afforestation and hencefor the sequestration of carbon. For example, landsin and around mines and the abandoned agriculturallands can be the initial targets for afforestation.

The Asia Least Cost Greenhouse Gas AbatementStrategy (ALGAS) study conducted by the AsianDevelopment Bank (ADB) had identifiedtechnological improvement in Indian power plants,fuel switching in Indian power plants, using lesspolluting fuels in the transportation sector and the useof renewable energy technologies as the possibilitiesfor abating GHG in the Indian energy sector. In theforestry sector, the activities are: forest conservationand expansion of sinks by reforestation of degradedforest areas and afforestation in private land. In theagriculture sector, the activities are: change infeedstock to contain methane emissions fromlivestock, changing paddy cultivation practices toreduce methane emission from continuouslysubmerged paddy fields and the appropriate reductionof nitrous oxide emission from fertilizers.

Some other thematic areas of research that requiresupport and further development, as appropriate are:international and intergovernmental programmes andnetworks or organizations aimed at defining,conducting, assessing and financing research, datacollection and systematic observation. This mayinclude:

� Forecasting energy requirements.� Energy usage efficiency studies from producers

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to user groups.� Socioeconomic costs related to climate change i.e.,

increased vulnerability to climate change.� Effect of climate change on marine infrastructure,

business and marine ecosystem.� Conservation studies.� Assessment of carbon abatement potential.� Design of the Indian economic modelling in

conjugation with global economic modelling basedon carbon and energy intensities, and the costreductions from trading, including thecompatibility of domestic and internationalmechanisms, constraints on emissions trading,transaction costs, and marginal cost estimates.

� Analyses of ‘spillover’ effects on non-Annex Icountries.

� Technology development and diffusion for cost-effective stabilization studies.

� Studies on emission pathways.� Studies to assess incentive needed for promotion

of energy efficient technologies .� Promotion of research on energy efficient building

technologies and development of codes andstandards for the sector.

� To conduct environment policy research foreconomic development and environmentalchanges

NEEDS FOR ADAPTATION TOCLIMATE CHANGE

Reduction of GHG emissions, leading to stabilizationof their concentrations in the atmosphere in the longrun, will neither altogether prevent climate change,sea-level rise, nor reduce their impacts in the short tomedium run. Adaptation is a necessary strategy at allscales, from national to local, to complement climatechange abatement efforts; thus, together they cancontribute to sustainable development objectives andreduce inequities.

In addition, the development of planned adaptationstrategies to address risks and utilize opportunitiescan complement abatement actions to reduce climatechange impacts. However, adaptation would entailcosts and cannot prevent all damages. There are manyconstraints faced by the developing countries such asIndia while deploying the scarce resources foradaptation measures.

Need for awareness at all levelsThere is a need for enhancement of awareness at alllevels on adaptation needs. The nature of adaptationneeds would differ from location to location and sectorto sector in an economy and even at the micro level,across different economic activities in a locality.These also need to consider the stakeholder’sperspective and their difference in endowment ofresources and capacity.

Need for research on formulatingspecific adaptation measures forvarious sectorsSectoral adaptation measures would depend to a largeextent on the awareness and understanding of theclimate change impacts. Various sectors like waterresources, agriculture, terrestrial and marineecosystems, human health, human settlements, energy,and industry, have their unique adaptationrequirements and there is a need for research tounderstand the extent of climate change impacts andthe possible sectoral adaptation measures.

Need for inter-linkages inadaptation policy and marketresponsesAdaptation to climate change presents complexchallenges, as well as opportunities in many sectors.Policy formulation on adaptation measures has torelate to the complex sectoral interdependence and

Afforestation on degraded land.

Degraded land

After afforestation

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inter-relationships in climate change impacts. This areahas been scarcely researched in the Indian contextand information necessary at the local level foradaptation policy planning is generally not available.This in turn also affects coordination with the marketresponses in adaptation. Market responses would notbe forthcoming if there is no clarity in cause-effect.Further in the absence of proper information, thepolicies do not reflect such clarity and free ridingprevails. Developed countries have experienced casesof complacency and maladaptation fostered by publicinsurance and relief programmes. The developingcountries, which may experience adverse effects ofclimate change, have to deal with equity issues anddevelopment constraints in market responses. Marketresponses must be matched with extensive access toinsurance and more widespread introduction of micro-financing schemes and development banking.

Need of resources to implementadaptation measuresThe costs of adverse events have risen rapidly despitesignificant and increasing efforts at fortifyinginfrastructure and enhancing disaster preparedness inthe recent decades. Part of the observed upward trendin disaster losses over the past 50 years is linked tosocioeconomic factors, such as population growth andurbanization in vulnerable areas. Moreover, climatechange impacts occur in the long term and for asustained level research to enhance preparednessrequires enormous resources in developingcapabilities in knowledge and infrastructure.

TECHNOLOGICAL NEEDS

The Government of India has been promoting lowCO2 emission technologies for sustainabledevelopment through programmes such as theIntegrated Renewable Energy Programme. India hasone of the largest programmes for promotingrenewable energy in the world, covering all majorrenewable energy technologies, such as, biogas,biomass, solar energy, wind energy, small hydropowerand other emerging technologies. The Ministry ofNon-conventional Energy Sources (MNES) isinvolved in the promotion for development,demonstration and utilization of these technologies,such as, solar thermal; solar photovoltaic; wind powergeneration and water pumping; biomass gasification/

combustion/co-generation; small, mini, and microhydro power; solar power; utilization of biomass,biogas, improved cook-stove; geothermal for heatapplications and power generation/energy recoveryfrom urban, municipal and industrial wastes; and tidalpower generation. The commercialization of severalrenewable energy systems and products are currentlyunderway. The MNES also deals with other emergingareas and new technologies, such as, chemical sourcesof energy, fuel cells, alternative fuel for surfacetransportation and hydrogen energy.

The global thrust on climate-friendly technologies ispresently focused on climate change mitigation, suchas fuel cell cars, biotechnologies, nano technologiesto reduce electricity demand and CO

2 capture and

storage. There is a growing need to developtechnologies that reduce the vulnerabilities ofdeveloping and least developed country populationsto adverse impacts of climate change. Thesetechnologies have to be low cost and be compatiblewith local environment and socioeconomic situationsfor faster adaptation . The revival of and building uponconventional wisdom, such as water management inarid and desert areas, weatherproof low-cost housing,and less water intensive night soil disposal, is alsorequired. Modern technologies should augment theconventional wisdom for adapting to climate change.Various ministries and departments of the Governmentof India are engaged in technology development ondiverse fronts that have been synthesized through theTechnology Information, Forecasting and AssessmentCouncil (TIFAC). The continuing work of scientistswill remain crucial, generating the knowledge neededto develop effective responses to the challenges ofclimate change. North-South and South-Southcooperation on climate change is a necessity,especially from the developing country perspective,as they need support for adaptation activities, andtechnology transfer.

CAPACITY NEEDS

Beyond the sectoral and scientific or technologicalcapacity needs on climate change, the critical need inIndia is to integrate the diverse scientific assessmentsand link them with policy-making. Science has toprovide objective scientific and technical advice tothe policy-makers, especially for a complex process

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like climate change. While some experience of usingintegrated assessment models does exist in India, thecapacity building in this area remains a double priority- first, to provide policy orientation to the scientificassessments and second, to provide robust scientificfoundation to policy making. The development ofassessment tools by interdisciplinary teams withindeveloping countries is crucial. This would needcommitment of sustained resources andinstitutionalization of multidisciplinary andnetworking efforts, within the scientific and policy-making establishments.

Climate change concerns, assessment challengesand response strategies, for diverse sectors andregions in India require an integrated assessmentapproach. Integrated assessment is aninterdisciplinary process that combines, interprets,and communicates knowledge from diversescientific disciplines from the natural and socialsciences to investigate and understand causalrelationships within and between complex systems.Integrated assessment attempts to present the fullrange of consequences of a given policy—economic or environmental, intended orunintended, prompt or delayed—in order todetermine whether the action will make the societybetter or worse off, and by how much. It must benoted here that, integrated assessment is also nota monolithic, uniform, unique and universal modelthat can be applied to any context. It indicates anapproach to policy-making that has to considercontextual issues and specific nuances of the sectorunder scrutiny to arrive at integrated policyassessment. For example, in deciding policy for waterquality management in a particular place, integratedscientific advice should include the direct and indirecteffects of urban development, agricultural run-offs,industrial pollution, and climate change-inducedincrease in heavy precipitation events on waterresources, along with many other factors.

Networking is a critical requirement for integratedclimate change assessments. The Initial NationalCommunication project has made a beginning wheremore than a 100 inter-disciplinary research teamsspread across the country have been networkedtogether for a shared vision on climate change-relatedresearch. Such initiatives have to be strengthened. The

participation of state and UT government departmentsis to be encouraged in climate change activities. Thiswill build capacities at the state level for implementingpolicy measures such as those for reducingvulnerability of various sectors and communities ,disseminating and promoting climate-friendlytechnologies and initiatives, adaptation, and energyefficiency improvements.

Finally, technology R&D, technology transfer andtechnology diffusion in India must be promoted. Sincethere are diverse disciplines involved in climatechange, having a unified command and control regimemay not be appropriate for these.

FINANCIAL NEEDS

The financial needs arise from the constraints detailedin the previous sections. They are necessary forresearch and actual projects for implementing climatechange related policies and programmes. These coverdiverse sectors and require considerable technologytransfers and financial resources in terms of Article4.3 of UNFCCC. Given the magnitude of the tasks,complexities of technological solutions and diversityof actions needed, the resources made available atpresent are wholly inadequate to address and respondto the requirements of the Convention.

The systems and policies in developing countries arenot tuned to handle even the present climate-relatedstress and climate variability. Income disparities andpopulation growth further constrain the opportunitiesand equitable access to the existing socialinfrastructure. The projected climate change couldfurther accentuate these conditions. The challengethen is to identify opportunities that facilitate thesustainable use of existing resources. It entailsconsiderations that make climate-sensitive systems,sectors and communities more resilient to currentclimate variability. This will pave the way toenhance their adaptive capacity to future climatechange. Faster economic development with moreequitable income distribution, improved disastermanagement, sustainable sectoral policies, carefulplanning of capital intensive and climate-sensitivelong-life infrastructure assets are some measuresthat assist in ameliorating India’s vulnerability toclimate change.

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IIP, 1994. Vehicle Emissions and Control Perspective in India – A State of the Art Report. Indian Institute of Petroleum, Dehradun.

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IEA, 1997. CO2 Emission from fuel combustion. International Energy Agency Document.

MoPNG, 1998. All India Survey of Gasoline and Diesel Consumption. A survey conducted by Indian Market Research Bureau forMinistry of Petroleum and Natural Gas, Government of India, New Delhi.

DGMS, 1967. The Coal Mines Regulations. Directorate General of Mines Safety, Dhanbad.

MoA, 2004. Web site of the Ministry of Agriculture, Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying, Government of India. (http://dahd.nic.in/stat.htm).

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Industrial ProcessesMoCF, 2001. Performance of Petrochemical Industry in India, Data Fact Sheets (1990-91 to 2000-01). Department of Chemicalsand Petrochemicals, Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoCF, 1989. Perspective Plan for Chemical Industry (Up to Year 2000 AD). Department of Chemicals and Petrochemicals,Ministry of Chemicals and Fertilizers, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoI, 1996. Handbook of Indigenous Manufacturers (Chemical and Miscellaneous Stores). Ministry of Industry, Government ofIndia, New Delhi.

MoCM, 1993 to 2001. Coal Directory of India. Ministry of Coal and Mines, Department of Coal, Government of India, Calcutta.

MoCM, 1994 to 2001. Annual Report. Ministry of Coal and Mines, Government of India, New Delhi.

DGMS, 1980 to 2000. Statistics of Mines in India, Vol. I (Coal). The Directorate General of Mines Safety, Ministry of Coal andMines, Government of India, Dhanbad.

DoHI, 1994 to 2001. Annual Report. Department of Heavy Industries, Ministry of Heavy Industries and Public Enterprises,Government of India, New Delhi.

MoS, 1994 to 2001. Annual Report. Ministry of Steel, Government of India, New Delhi.

SAIL, 1994. Statistics for Iron and Steel Industry in India. Steel Authority of India Limited, New Delhi.

SAIL, 1996. Statistics for Iron and Steel Industry in India. Steel Authority of India Limited, New Delhi.

FAI, 2000. Fertilizer Statistics: 1999-2000. The Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi.

ESI, 1994 to 2001. Economic Survey of India. Ministry of Finance, Government of India, New Delhi.

CMA, 1996, Cement Statistics. Cement Manufacturers’ Association, New Delhi.

CMIE, 1984. Production and Capacity Utilization in 650 Industries (1970 to 1983). Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy,Mumbai. (http://www.cmie.com).

CMIE, 1991. Trends in Industrial Production of over 1200 Products / Product Groups (1980 to 1989). Centre for MonitoringIndian Economy, Mumbai. (http://www.cmie.com).

CMIE, 1993. Trends in Industrial Production of over 2000 Products / Product Groups (1982 to 1992). Centre for MonitoringIndian Economy, Mumbai. (http://www.cmie.com).

CMIE, 2001. Industry Market Size and Shares. Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, Mumbai. (http://www.cmie.com).

CMIE Prowess Database. Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy, Mumbai. (http://www.cmie.com).

CIER, 1998. CIER’s Industrial Data Book 1998. Center for Industrial and Economic Research, Sage Publications, New Delhi.

CII, 1996. Handbook of Statistics 1996. Confederation of Indian Industry, New Delhi.

IEMR, 1992. Steel Industry in India: Status and Investment Perspectives up to 2006-07. Institute of Economic and MarketResearch, New Delhi.

IBM, 1982 to 2001. Indian Mineral Year Books. Indian Bureau of Mines, Ministry of Steel and Mines, Government of India,Nagpur.

SAIL, 1984 to 2000. Statistics for Iron & Steel Industry in India. Steel Authority of India Limited, New Delhi.

IFAPA, 2000. Annual Report of Indian Ferro Alloy Producers Association, 2000, Mumbai.

AgricultureMoA, 1994 to 2001. Annual Reports. Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoA, 1998. Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics: 1997. Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoA, 1999. Basic Animal Husbandry Statistics, AHS Series 7. Department of Animal Husbandry and Dairying, Ministry ofAgriculture, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoA, 2000. Animal Genetic Resources of India: Cattle & Buffalo. Indian Council of Agricultural Research, Ministry of Agriculture,Government of India, New Delhi.

MoA, 1990. Handbook of Animal Husbandry (Revised Edition 1990). Indian Council of Agricultural Research, Ministry of Agriculture,Government of India, New Delhi.

MoA, 1997. Handbook of Animal Husbandry (Reprint 1997). Indian Council of Agricultural Research, Ministry of Agriculture,Government of India, New Delhi.

MoA, 2000. Costs of Cultivation of Principal Crops in India. Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoA, 1999. Agricultural Statistics at a glance-1999. Directorate of Economics and Statistics, Department of Agriculture andCooperation (DAC), Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.

References

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Planning Commission of India, 1998. Agro-climatic regional planning: Recent Developments. ARPU Paper No. 10, Agro-Climatic Regional Planning Unit, Ahmedabad.

DST, 2000. Utilization of Slaughter House Waste Material for the Preparation of Animal Feed. Technology Information,Forecasting & Assessment Council (TIFAC), Department of Science and Technology, Government of India.

FAI, 1996 and 1997. Fertilizer and Allied Agricultural Statistics (Northern Region). Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi.

FAI, 1993-94 to 2000-01, Regional Statistics. Fertilizer Association of India, New Delhi.

CMIE, 1995. India’s Agricultural Sector. Center for Monitoring Indian Economy, Mumbai. (http://www.cmie.com).

GoWB, 1986 to 1993. Economic Review: Statistical Appendixes. State Planning Board, Government of West Bengal, Kolkata.

GoWB, 1991 to 2000. Estimates of Area & Production of Principal Crops in West Bengal. Evaluation Wing, Directorate ofAgriculture, Government of West Bengal, Kolkata.

IRRI, 1990. World Rice Statistics-1990. International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos, Laguna, Philippines.

IRRI, 1995. Rice Almanac 1993-95. International Rice Research Institute, Los Banos, Philippines.

TERI, 1997. Rural and Renewable Energy: Perspectives from Developing Countries. The Energy and Resources Institute, NewDelhi.

FAO Production Year Books, 1975 to 1995.

Land Use, Land-use Change and ForestryMoEF, 1993 to 2001. State of Forest Report. Forest Survey of India, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India,Dehradun.

MoEF, 1999. National Forestry Action Programme-India. Ministry of Environment and Forests, New Delhi.

MoA, 1994 to 2001. Annual Reports. Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India, New Delhi.

Planning Commission (http://planningcommission.nic.in/data/dataf.htm).

ICFRE, 2002. Forestry Statistics India-2001. Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education, New Forest, Dehradun.

ADB, 1998. Asia Least–Cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS)-India, Bangladesh, Thailand and Republic ofKorea. Asian Development Bank, Manila, Philippines.

WasteMoEF, 1997. Status of Water Supply and Wastewater Generation, Collection, Treatment and Disposal in Metro Cities 1994-95.Central Pollution Control Board, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoEF, 1997. Status of Water Supply and Wastewater Collection, Generation, Treatment and Disposal in Class I & II Cities.Central Pollution Control Board, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoEF, 1997. National Inventory of Large and Medium Industry and Status of Effluent Treatment and Emission Control System,Vol. 1. Central Pollution Control Board, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoEF, 1992. Comprehensive Industry Document on Slaughterhouse, Meat and Seafood Processing. Central Pollution ControlBoard, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoEF, 1992. Comprehensive Industry Document series, Comprehensive Industry Document on Dairy Industries. Central PollutionControl Board, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoEF, 1994. Comprehensive Industry Document Series, Comprehensive Industry Document Fertilizer Industry. Central PollutionControl Board, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoEF, 1991. Comprehensive Industry Document Series, Comprehensive Industry Document for Large Pulp and Paper Industry.Central Pollution Control Board, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoEF, 1981-82. Comprehensive Industry Document Series, Minimal National Standards Oil Refineries. Central Board for thePrevention and Control of Water Pollution, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoEF, 1984-85. Comprehensive Industry Document Series, Minimal National Standards, Straight Phosphoric Fertilizer Industry.Central Board for the Prevention and Control of Water Pollution, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, NewDelhi.

MoEF, 1984-85. Comprehensive Industry Document Series, Minimal National Standards, Straight Nitrogenous Fertilizer Industry.Central Board for the Prevention and Control of Water Pollution, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, NewDelhi.

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MoEF, 1999-2000. Comprehensive Industry Document Series, Textile Industry. Central Pollution Control Board, Ministry ofEnvironment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoEF, 1980-81. Comprehensive Industry Document, Oil Refineries. Central Board for the Prevention and Control of WaterPollution, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoEF, 1980-81. Comprehensive Industry Document, Sugar Industry. Central Board for the Prevention and Control of WaterPollution, Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India, New Delhi.

ESI, 1994 to 2001. Economic Survey of India. Ministry of Finance, Government of India, New Delhi.

Planning Commission, 1997. Ninth Five Year Plan: 1997-2002, Vol. II, Thematic Issues and Sectoral Programmes. PlanningCommission, Government of India, New Delhi.

Planning Commission, 1986. Seventh Five Year Plan: 1985-1990, Vol. II, Thematic Issues and Sectoral Programmes. PlanningCommission, Government of India, New Delhi.

MNES, 1994. State of the Art – Tanning Industry – Pollution Control Abatement; NEERI Report, Ministry of Non ConventionalEnergy Sources, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoPPI, 1992. Statistical Abstract India: 1992. Central Statistical Organization, Department of Statistics, Ministry of Planning andProgramme Implementation, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoI, 1996. Handbook of Industrial Policy and Statistics. Ministry of Industry, Government of India, New Delhi.

MoUD, 1994. Performance Evaluation of Sewage Treatment Plants in India. A survey report conducted by National EnvironmentalEngineering Research Institute for the Ministry of Urban Development, Government of India.

ISI, 1969. Guide for Treatment of Effluents of Cane Sugar Industry. Indian Standard Institution, New Delhi.

NEERI, 1994. Draft Manual on Solid Waste Management. National Environmental Engineering Research Institute, Nagpur.

Food Digest, 2000. Vol. 23, No.3, July-Sept.

Food Digest, 2001. Vol. 24, No.3, July-Sept.

Indian Food Industry, 2000. Vol.19, No. 4, July/Aug.

Indian Rubber & Plastic Age, 2001. Vol. 29, No. 1. Nov.

Indian Rubber & Plastic Age, 2002. Vol. 38, No. 5, May.

Common Data ReferencesCensus of India, 1992. Final Population Totals. Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of India, New Delhi.

Census of India, 2001. Government of India Press, New Delhi.

IPCC, 2000. IPCC Good Practice Guidance and Uncertainty Management in National Greenhouse Gas Inventories.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).

IPCC, 1996. Revised IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories: Reference Manual. Intergovernmental Panelon Climate Change (IPCC). Bracknell, USA.

IPCC, 1996. Report of the Twelfth Session of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Mexico City, 11–13, September.

ALGAS, 1998. Asian Least-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement Strategy (ALGAS): India. Asian Development Bank, Manila,Philippines.

TEDDY, 1993-94 to 2001-02. TERI Energy Data Directory and Yearbook. The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi.

References

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Implementation Arrangement

The project on preparation of India’s Initial National Communication to the UNFCCC has been implemented and executed by theMinistry of Environment and Forests (MoEF), Government of India. A National Steering Committee under the Chairmanship ofthe Secretary, MoEF, Government of India oversaw its implementation. A Technical Advisory Committee, advised on mattersrelating to the scientific and technical aspects of the various components of communication. A broad-based participatory approachinvolving 131 research teams from government ministries and departments, autonomous institutions and national researchlaboratories, universities, non-governmental organizations, industry associations, and private sector were involved in the process.

Being a Party to the Convention, India is required to furnish information in accordance with the provisions of the Convention fornon-Annex-1 countries (Article 4 and 12), relating to implementation interalia to the development of a comprehensive nationalinventory of anthropogenic emissions by sources and removal by sinks of all GHGs not controlled by the Montreal protocol,elucidation of a general description of steps taken or envisaged for implementation of the Convention; and any other informationrelevant to the achievement of the objectives of the Convention and suitable for inclusion in its communication, including, iffeasible, material relevant for calculation of global emission trends.

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NATCOM Networks

CEE: Centre for Environment Education, Ahmedabad; CPCB: Central Pollution Control Board, New Delhi; DOD: Department ofOcean Development, New Delhi; DST: Department of Science and Technology, New Delhi; FSI: Forest Survey of India, Dehradun;IARI: Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi; IIMA: Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad; IISc: Indian Instituteof Science, Bangalore; IITD: Indian Institute of Technology, Delhi; IMD: India Meteorological Department, New Delhi; IRADe:Integrated Research and Action for Development, New Delhi; ISEC: Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore;ISRO: Indian Space Research Organization, Department of Space, Bangalore; MANIT: Maulana Azad National Institute ofTechnology, Bhopal; NIAS: National Institute of Advanced Studies, Bangalore; TERI: The Energy and Resources Institute, NewDelhi

Institutional Mechanism

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NATCOM NetworksInstitutional networks were set up for GHG inventory estimation, measurement of emission coefficients, vulnerabilityassessment and adaptation (V&A), introductory context, general description of steps, other information including data center,website and targeted research. The institutional mechanisms for each of these were different and unique based on therequirements of the task. GHG inventory estimation required extensive sectoral data collection & validation, a framework ofsectoral Lead Institutes supported by Participating Institutes was preferred. V&A required national level modeling for a macroview. These were conducted at premier national institutes under the guidance of prominent national experts. Independentcase studies were also conducted to assess the broad canvas of V&A research requirements for a large country like India.For data center and website, the expertise available in the Indian software industry was used.

GHG Inventory EstimationThis component of the National Communication involved 19 research and development institutions, universities, and non-governmental organizations. The sectors considered include energy, industrial process, agriculture, landuse, land use changeand forestry, and waste. Each of these sectors were coordinated by a lead institute and sub sectors under each had a numberof participating institutes involved in the collection of primary and secondary activity data and preparation of GHG emissioninventory for that sector.

All the participants have been trained through workshops on Inventory estimation and Good practices for reporting as per theIPCC guidelines. This includes the development of a Quality Assurance and Quality Control (QA/QC) plan. This approach wascomplemented by developing indigenous emission factors for some of the key sources of emissions in India. These are furtherexpected to reduce the uncertainties in GHG estimates. Regular consultative meetings were conducted to reconcile the differencesin top-down and bottom-up inventory estimates and other matters.

CMA: Cement Manufacturers’ Association, New Delhi; CFRI: Central Fuel Research Institute, Dhanbad; CGCRI: CentralGlass and Ceramic Research Institute, Kolkata; CLRI: Central Leather Research Institute, Chennai; CMRI: Central MiningResearch Institute, Dhanbad; CRRI: Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi; DA: Development Alternatives, New Delhi;FRI: Forest Research Institute, Dehradun; FSI: Forest Survey of India, Dehradun; IARI: Indian Agricultural Research Institute,New Delhi; IIMA: Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad; IISc: Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore; IRPE: Institute ofRadio Physics and Electronics, Calcutta University; NCL: National Chemical Laboratory, Pune; NEERI: National EnvironmentalEngineering Research Institute, Nagpur; NPL: National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi; RRL: Regional Research Laboratory,Bhubaneswar; TERI: The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi

Institutional Network for Greenhouse Gas Inventory Estimation

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Institutional Network for Uncertainty Reduction in Greenhouse Gas Emissions

CFRI: Central Fuel Research Institute, Dhanbad; CLRI: Central Leather Research Institute, Chennai; CMRI: Central MiningResearch Institute, Dhanbad; CRRI: Central Rice Research Institute, Cuttack; CRRI: Central Road Research Institute, NewDelhi; IARI: Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi; IIP: Indian Institute of Petroleum, Dehradun; IISc: Indian Instituteof Science, Bangalore; JU: Jadavpur University, Kolkata; NCL: National Chemical Laboratory, Pune; NDRI: National DairyResearch Institute, Karnal; NEERI: National Environmental Engineering Research Institute, Nagpur; NPL: National PhysicalLaboratory, New Delhi; RRL: Regional Research Laboratory, Bhubaneswar

Uncertainty Reduction in GHG EstimationGHG emission estimates, based on IPCC default emission factors, are not ususally region or natural circumstances specific,and therefore have uncertainties in the emission estimates. Uncertainties also exist in the activity data. Through this project, anattempt has been made to generate India specific emission factors by undertaking in-situ measurements for some key sourcecategories. The efforts were to define the range in uncertainties in the estimates through statistical methods. Time and budgetaryresources available under the project limited the coverage under this activity.

The activities covered under the energy sector include measurement of CO2 emission coefficients from coal based power,steel and cement plants representing different technologies. Some super thermal power plants, Integrated steel plants andmedium sized cement plants were targeted for CO2 emission coefficient measurement. Central Fuel Research Institute, Dhanbadand Jadavpur University, Kolkata conducted these measurements. Indian Institute of Petroleum, Dehradun measured the emissionfactors of CO2, NOx and NMVOC released from specific road vehicle categories operating on diesel and petrol. Central RoadResearch Institute, New Delhi used a combination of statistical methods and secondary data sources to reduce uncertainty inroad transport sector activity data for 1994. Central Mining Research Institute, Dhanbad conducted measurements for methaneemission coefficients from coal mining activity, where surface mining activities were measured for the first time in India.

Industrial processes included emission coefficient measurements from cement manufacturing process, lime production, andnitric acid production. The emission factor in case of cement manufacturing process is a product of CO2 generated from CaOand MgO content of the clinker and the correction factor for CKD losses from the plant. This emission factor multiplied by theclinker production gives the emission of GHG from each cement plant. In the nitric acid production process, ammonia is oxidizedwith air to result in main products NO, NO2 and a by-product N2O in small quantities. After nitric oxides are absorbed, nitrousoxide is left out and is vented either directly or after using abatement technologies. National Chemical Laboratory, Pune conductedthese measurements.

In the Agriculture sector, measurements were conducted for CH4 emission coefficient estimation due to enteric fermentation inindigenous and crossbred dairy cows for different age groups. National Dairy Research Institute, Karnal conducted the experimentsand National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi provided support for data measurement in terms of standardization of measurementand instrument calibration. The Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi was involved in the measurement of N2Oemissions from soils supporting rice – wheat systems in the country. They also conducted measurements to ascertain the

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emission coefficient of N2O due to application of nitrogenous fertilizers. National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi was involvedin the measurement of N2O and CH4 emission coefficients from managed manure systems, CH4 from rice cultivation underdifferent water regimes and organic amendments, and CO2, CH4, N2O, NOx and CO from burning of crop residue.

In the Land Use Land Use Change and Forestry sector, an attempt was made to assess uncertainty associated with activitydata and emission factors. This covered determination of annual growth rate of plantations and different forest types, determinationof annual growth of above ground biomass and measurement of soil carbon in various soil types. Indian Institute of Science,Bangalore coordinated these. A component on measurement of uptake of CO2 by plants was conducted by Central Fuel ResearchInstitute, Dhanbad.

In the waste sector, measurements were conducted to estimate the emission coefficient of CH4 released from municipal solidwaste dumping sites in New Delhi.

Institutional Network for Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation

CFRI: Central Fuel Research Institute; Dhanbad, DA: Development Alternatives, New Delhi; FSI: Forest Survey of India,Dehradun; GGSIP: Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Delhi; IARI: Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi;IIMA: Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad; IISc: Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore; IITD: Indian Institute ofTechnology, Delhi; IITB: Indian Institute of Technology, Mumbai; IITM: Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune; JU:Jadavpur University, Kolkata; JNU: Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi; KFRI: Kerala Forest Research Institute, Peechi;MRC: Malaria Research Centre, Delhi; NCL: National Chemical Laboratory, Pune; NCCBM: National Council for Cement andBuilding Materials, Ballabgarh; NIO: National Institute of Oceanography, Goa; NPL: National Physical Laboratory, New Delhi;RSAC: Remote Sensing Applications Centre, Lucknow; TNAU: Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore; TERI: TheEnergy and Resources Institute, New Delhi; TU: Tripura University, Agartala; UAS: University of Agricultural Sciences,Dharwad; WII: Wildlife Institute of India, Dehradun

Vulnerability Assessment and AdaptationIt is generally agreed that the South Asian region, dominated by the monsoons, is one of the most difficult regions to model, withconsiderable differences among models and high sensitivity to model parameters. Based on the model projections, it is estimatedthat the mean surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.5-2.5 °C in Southern India while in the north it may increase by

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2.5-3.5 °C by 2040. Given such complexities within India itself, the NATCOM project has attempted to identify regions of highervulnerability to climate change in India, conducted a few specific studies and developed possible adaptation measures in a fewsectors. However, time and budgetary resources available under the project limited the coverage under this activity as well.

Vulnerability assessments of the sectors carried out include agriculture, water resources, forestry, coastal zones, naturalecosystems, human health, energy and infrastructure. This exercise entailed the consistent construction of likely climateand socio-economic scenarios for India along with an assessment of extreme events using existing models and expertise.

Eleven activities have been identified for work under this component. Thirty-six research teams across the country have undertakenactivities under the vulnerability assessment and adaptation component. Whilst the national sectoral studies were coordinatedand synthesized by lead institutes, individual case studies were undertaken by different participating institutes.

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AAR Area Accumulation RatioABER Annual Blood Examination RateADB Asian Development BankALGAS Asia Least-cost Greenhouse Gas Abatement StrategyAn. AnophelesAOGCM Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation ModelsAPI Annual Parasite IndexASSOCHAM Associated Chambers of Commerce and IndustryBAPMON Background Air Pollution MonitoringC CarbonCADA Command Area Development AuthorityCAGR Compounded Annual Growth RateCD Cumulative DeathsCDM Clean Development MechanismCDPLP Cumulative Deaths Per Lakh PopulationCENPEEP Centre for Power Efficiency and Environmental ProtectionCERES Crop Environment Resource SynthesisCGMS Crop Growth Monitoring SystemsCH4 MethaneCII Confederation of Indian IndustriesCIMMYT Centre for Maize and Wheat ResearchCMA Cement Manufacturers’ AssociationCMIE Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy Pvt LtdCMRI Central Mining Research instituteCNG Compressed Natural GasCO2 Carbon dioxideCOP Conference of Parties to UNFCCCCPCB Central Pollution Control BoardCRRI Central Road Research InstituteCRZ Coastal Regulation ZoneCSE Centre for Science and Environment, New DelhiCSIR Council for Scientific and Industrial ResearchCSIRO-Mk2 Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation ModelCTL ControlDALYs Disability-Adjusted Life YearsDBH Diameter at Breast HeightDC Data CentreDDT Dichloro-diphenyl-trichloroethaneDGVMs Dynamic Global Vegetation ModelsDJF December, January, FebruaryDKRZ Deutsches Kilma Rechen ZentrumDM Dry MatterDMMF Dry Mineral Matter on Free BasisDOD Department of Ocean DevelopmentDSSAT Decision Support System for Agro-technology TransferDST Department of Science and TechnologyECHAM ECMWF forecast models, modified and extended in Hamburg

Acronyms Expansion

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EMC Energy Management CentreEMCP Enhanced Malaria Control ProgrammeENSO El-Nino Southern OscillationESI Economic Survey of IndiaEsif Emission Seasonal Integrated Flux ValuesFACE Free Air Carbon dioxide EnrichmentFICCI Federation of Indian Chamber of Commerce and IndustryFOESS Frequency of Severe StormsFSI Forest Survey of IndiaGAW Global Atmospheric WatchGCM General Circulation ModelGDP Gross Domestic ProductGEF Global Environment FacilityGHG Greenhouse GasGIS Geographic Information SystemGOI Government of IndiaGWP Global Warming PotentialHadCM Hadley Centre ModelHadRM Hadley Centre Regional ModelHC HydrocarbonsHCV Heavy Commercial VehiclesHI Housing IndexHTL High-Tide LineIA Integrated AssessmentIAM Integrated Assessment ModelsIARI Indian Agricultural Research InstituteIE Inventory EstimationIGCC Integrated Gas Combined CycleIGIDR Indira Gandhi International Development Research, MumbaiIIMA Indian Institute of Management, AhmedabadIIP Indian Institute of PetroleumIISc Indian Institute of Science, BangaloreIIT Indian Institute of TechnologyIITM Indian Institute of Tropical MeteorologyIMD India Meteorological DepartmentINDOEX Indian Ocean ExperimentINFOCROP Informatics on CropsIPCC Inter-governmental Panel on Climate ChangeIREDA Indian Renewable Energy Development AgencyIWRM Integrated Water Resources ManagementJFM Joint Forest ManagementJJA June, July, August seasonJJAS June, July, August, SeptemberKRCL Konkan Railway Corporation LimitedLCV Light Commercial VehiclesLNG Liquefied Natural GasLULUCF Land Use, Land-use Change and ForestryMAC Methane Asia CampaignMAM March, April, MayMNES Ministry of Non-conventional Energy sourcesMoCM Ministry of Coal and MinesMoEA Ministry of External AffairsMoEF Ministry of Environment and ForestsMoF Ministry of FinanceMoHFW Ministry of Health and Family Welfare

Acronyms Details

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MoR Ministry of RailwaysMoRTH Ministry of Road Transport and HighwaysMP Montreal ProtocolMSL Mean Sea LevelMSW Municipal Solid WasteN NitrogenN2O Nitrous OxideNAMP National Anti-Malaria ProgrammeNATCOM National CommunicationNBP Net Biome ProductionNCA National Commission on AgricultureNCAR National Centre for Atmospheric ResearchNGO Non-Governmental OrganisationNHT Northern Hemispheric TemperatureNMCP National Malaria Control ProgrammeNMEP National Malaria Eradication ProgrammeNO

XNitrogen Oxides

NPD National Project DirectorNPL National Physical LaboratoryNPP Net Primary ProductivityNSC National Steering CommitteeNTFP Non-Timber Forest ProductNTPC National Thermal Power CorporationOECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and DevelopmentOTC Open Top ChambersP. PlasmodiumPC Planning Commission of IndiaPCRA Petroleum Conservation Research CentrePDSI Palmer Drought Severity IndexP

f CP Plasmodium falciparum Containment Programme

PFT Plant Functional TypePIM Participatory Irrigation ManagementPMC Project Management CellPNUTGRO Peanut Crop Growth Simulation ModelPSUs Public Sector UndertakingsPV PhotovoltaicR&D Research and DevelopmentR&M Renovation and ModernisationRCM Regional Circulation ModelSAIL Steel Authority of India LimitedSEB State Electricity BoardSHS Solar Home SystemsSMD Soil Moisture Deficit RatioSMI Soil Moisture IndexSOI Southern Oscillation IndexSPV Solar Photo VoltaicSRES Special Report on Emission ScenariosSSCL Severe storms per km of the coastlineSST Sea Surface TemperatureSWAT Soil and Water Assessment ToolT&D Transmission and DistributionTAC Technical Advisory CommitteeTAR Third Assessment ReportTEDDY TERI Energy Data Directory Year bookTERI The Energy and Resources Institute

Acronyms Details

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Acronyms Details

TIFAC Technology Information Forecasting and Assessment CouncilTR Targeted ResearchUMB Urea Molasses BlockUNDP United Nations Development ProgrammeUNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeUR Uncertainty Reduction in inventory estimationVA Vulnerability Assessment and AdaptationVI Vulnerability IndicatorsWHO World Health OrganisationWMO World Meteorological OrganisationWOFOST World Food Study ProgrammeWSSD World Summit on Sustainable DevelopmentWTGROWS Wheat Growth Simulator

BCM Billion Cubic Meter (equals 1km3)

BCM Billion Cubic Metre (equals 1km3)

C CelsiusGg Giga gramGW Giga WattGWh Giga Watt hourha HectarehPa hecta Pascalka Kilo annualkm Kilometrekm

2Square kilometre

km3

Cubic kilometerkW kilo WattskWp kilo Watts peakM Million

m3

Cubic metreMha Million hectareMJ Mega Joulemm millimeterMt Million tonneMt-CO2 Million tonnes of Carbon dioxideMt-CO2 eqMillion tonnes of Carbon dioxide

equivalentMW Mega Wattsppb parts per billion by volumeppm parts per million by volumeppt parts per trillion by volumet tonTg Tera gramTJ Tera Jouletoe tons of oil equivalenttons/cap tons per capitaW/M

2Watt per square metre

Units and quantities

Conversion table

1Giga gram (Gg) = 1000 tonnes= 109 g

1Tera gram (Tg) = 1 Million tonnes= 1000 Gg= 106 tonne= 1012 g

1 Tera Joule (TJ) = 103 GJ= 1012 Joules

1 Calorie = 4.18 J

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Secretary (Chairman)Ministry of Environment & ForestsParyavaran Bhawan, CGO ComplexLodi Road, New Delhi 110003

Principal Adviser (Environment)Planning CommissionYojna Bhawan, Parliament Street, NewDelhi 110001

SecretaryDepartment of Agriculture, Research &EducationMinistry of AgricultureKrishi Bhawan, New Delhi 110011

Additional Secretary (FB)Department of Economic AffairsMinistry of FinanceNorth Block, New Delhi 110001

SecretaryMinistry of Non-Conventional EnergySourcesBlock-14, CGO ComplexLodi Road, New Delhi 110003

Dr. Prodipto GhoshSecretary (Chairman)Ministry of Environment and ForestsParyavaran Bhawan, CGO ComplexLodi Road, New Delhi 110003

Dr. R. K. PachauriDirector GeneralThe Energy and Resources InstituteIndia Habitat Centre, Lodi EstateNew Delhi 110003

Prof. A. P. MitraNational Physical LaboratoryDr. K. S. Krishnan Marg, PusaNew Delhi 110012

Prof. P. R. ShuklaIndian Institute of ManagementVastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015

Prof. Kirit ParikhExecutive DirectorIntegrated Research and Action forDevelopmentC- 50, Asian Games Village ComplexKhelgaon, New Delhi 110049

Dr. Ashok KhoslaPresidentDevelopment AlternativesTaracrescent, Qutab Institutional AreaNew Delhi 110016

Prof. C. R. BabuDepartment of BotanyUniversity of Delhi, Delhi 110007

SecretaryMinistry of Science & TechnologyTechnology BhawanNew Mehrauli Road, New Delhi 110016

SecretaryMinistry of CoalShastri Bhawan, New Delhi 110001

SecretaryMinistry of PowerShram Shakti Bhawan, New Delhi110001

SecretaryMinistry of Heavy Industries & PublicEnterprisesUdyog Bhawan, New Delhi 110001

SecretaryMinistry of Road Transport & HighwaysParivahan Bhawan, 1, ParliamentStreet, New Delhi 110001

SecretaryMinistry of Petroleum & Natural GasShastri Bhawan, New Delhi 110001

Director GeneralIndia Meteorology DepartmentMinistry of Science & TechnologyMausam Bhawan, Lodi Road, NewDelhi 110003

Joint Secretary (UN)Ministry of External AffairsSouth Block, New Delhi 110001

RepresentativeUnited Nations DevelopmentProgramme55, Lodi Estate, New Delhi 110003

Joint Secretary (Climate Change)Ministry of Environment & ForestsParyavaran BhawanCGO Complex, Lodi Road, New Delhi110003

Dr. Subodh K. SharmaAdvisor, Ministry of Environment &ForestsParyavaran Bhawan, CGO ComplexLodi Road, New Delhi 110003

Members of National Steering Committee

Members of Technical Advisory Committee

Prof. N. H. RavindranathCenter for Ecological SciencesIndian Institute of ScienceBangalore 560012

Ms K. Usha RaoUnited Nations DevelopmentProgrammeLodi Estate, New Delhi 110003

Joint Secretary (Climate Change)Ministry of Environment and ForestsParyavaran Bhawan, CGO ComplexLodi Road, New Delhi 110003

Representative of Director GeneralIndia Meteorology DepartmentMinistry of Science & TechnologyMausam Bhawan, New Delhi 110003

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Representative of Director GeneralIndian Council of Agricultural ResearchKrishi Bhawan, New Delhi 110011

Representative of SecretaryMinistry of Science & TechnologyTechnology BhawanNew Mehrauli Road, New Delhi 110016

Representative of SecretaryMinistry of CoalShastri Bhawan, New Delhi 110001

Representative of SecretaryMinistry of PowerShram Shakti Bhawan, New Delhi110001

Representative of SecretaryMinistry of Road Transport & HighwaysParivahan Bhawan, 1, Parliament Street,New Delhi 110001

Representative of SecretaryMinistry of Petroleum & Natural GasShastri Bhawan, New Delhi 110001

Dr. Subodh K. SharmaNational Project Director, NATCOMMinistry of Environment and Forests,Government of IndiaRoom No. 564, 5th Floor, ParyavaranBhavan, CGO ComplexLodi Road, New Delhi 110003Ph: 91-11-24360861, 24631669E-mail: [email protected]

Members of Participating Institutions

Dr. Subodh K. SharmaAdvisor, Ministry of Environment &ForestsParyavaran Bhawan, CGO ComplexLodi Road, New Delhi 110003

Dr. J. R. BhattAdditional Director, Ministry ofEnvironment & ForestsParyavaran Bhawan, CGO ComplexLodi Road, New Delhi 110003

Project Management Cell

Dr. Amit GargExpert ConsultantNATCOM Project Management Cell1, Navjeevan ViharNew Delhi 110017Ph: 91-11-26693876E-mail: [email protected]

Dr. Sumana BhattacharyaExpert ConsultantNATCOM Project Management Cell1, Navjeevan ViharNew Delhi 110017Ph: 91-11-26693876E-mail: [email protected]

Ms. Swati LalProject AssociateNATCOM Project Management Cell1, Navjeevan ViharNew Delhi 110017Ph: 91-11-26693876E-mail: [email protected]

Ms. R. SavithaTechnical Project AssociateNATCOM Project Management Cell1, Navjeevan ViharNew Delhi 110017

Aligarh Muslim University, AligarhDepartment of GeologyAligarh 200202, UP

Sarfaraz AhmadE-mail: [email protected]

Associated Chambers of Commerce

and Industry, New Delhi

47, Prithviraj RoadNew Delhi 110011Ph: 91-11-26512478Fax: 91-11-24604932

Avik MitraSenior ConsultantE-mail: [email protected]

Bhaskar SinhaEnvironment ExecutiveE-mail: [email protected]

Cement Manufacturers’Association, New DelhiCMA Tower, A-2 E, Sector – 24Noida (U.P.)Ph: 95120-2411955 to 57Fax: 95120-2411956

S. P. GhoshAdvisor (Technical)E-mail: [email protected]

Jainender KumarR. P. Mehra

Central Fuel Research Institute,DhanbadCouncil of Scientific and IndustrialResearchDept. of S&T, Govt. of IndiaP.O. FRI, Dhanbad 828108Ph: 91-326-2381001-10Fax: 91-326-2381113

Kalyan SenDirectorE-mail: [email protected],[email protected]

A. K. DeyA. K. SethAshim ChoudhuryAshis MukherjeeC. C. ChakrabortyGulab SinghJahar RoyJoshy GeorgeK. K. SharmaK. M. P. SinghL. C. RamManish KumarPinaki SarkarS. BiswasS. G. SahuS. K. BharthiS. K. Kabiraj

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S. K. ThakurS. KrishnanSujan SahaSukumar BanerjeeU. S. Chattopadhya

Central Glass and CeramicResearch Institute, KolkataP.O. Jadavpur UniversityKolkata 700032Ph: 91-33-24733496Fax: 91-33-24730957

S. ChakrabartiScientist F & Head, Clay & TraditionalCeramic SectionE-mail: [email protected]

Shyamal GhoshSitendu MandalSubhra LahiriSubrata Dasgupta

Central Leather Research Institute,ChennaiAdyar, Chennai 600 020Ph: 91-44-24911386Fax: 91-44-24911589

Mahadeswara SwamyScientistE-mail: [email protected]

S. ThanigaivelanT. RamasamiV. PrathibhaV. Shashirekha

Central Mining Research Institute,DhanbadBarwa Road, Dhanbad 826001Ph: 91-326-2203502Fax: 91-326-2202429

A. K. SinghScientist & Head, Methane Emission &DegasificationE-mail: [email protected]

Harendra SinghJohn KispottaM. K. SinghV. A. Mendhe

Central Rice Research Institute,CuttackIndian Council of Agricultural ResearchCuttack (Orissa) 753006Ph: 91-671-2442445Fax: 91-671-2441744

T. K. AdhyaPrincipal Scientist (Microbiology) &Team Leader NATP-TOE/GHGE-mail: [email protected],[email protected]

B. RamakrishnanV. R. Rao

Central Road Research Institute,New DelhiDelhi-Mathura RoadNew Delhi 110020Ph: 91-11-26846976Fax: 91-11-26845943

Anil SinghSenior Scientist, Environment & RoadTraffic SafetyE-mail: [email protected]

Chander BhanP. K. Sikdar

Centre for Environment Education,AhmedabadNehru Foundation for DevelopmentThaltej TekraAhmedabad 380054Tel: 91-79-26858002Fax: 91-79-26858010

Kiran B. ChhokarProgramme Co-ordinator, HigherEducationE-mail: [email protected]

Shriji Kurup

Centre for Inter-Disciplinary Studiesof Mountain and Hill Environment(CISMHE), New DelhiUniversity of Delhi, South CampusBenito Jureaz Road, New Delhi110021.TeleFax: 91-11-26888144

K. S. RaoVegetation EcologistE-mail: [email protected],[email protected]

Confederation of Indian Industry,New DelhiIndia Habitat Centre4

th Floor, Core 4A, Lodi Road

New Delhi 110003Ph: 91-11-24682228Fax: 91-11-24682229

K.P. NyatiHead, Environment ManagementDivisionE-mail: [email protected]

Amitabh DhawanSuman MajumdarV. Raghuraman

Decision Craft Analytics Ltd.,Ahmedabad601, Shapath, Opp. Rajpath ClubAhmedabad 380015Ph: 91-79-26870657Fax: 91-79-26878961

Raviratan AroraCEO & Managing DirectorE-mail: [email protected]

Anjali AroraGaurav SapariaNidhi RajV. V. SubrahmanyamVani DixitVarsha ModiVarun Narula

Department of Ocean Development,New DelhiMahasagar Bhavan, Block –12C.G.O Complex, Lodi Road, New Delhi–110003Ph: 91-11-24361068Fax: 91-11-24360336

K. SomasundarE-mail: [email protected]

Department of Science andTechnology, New DelhiTechnology Bhavan, New MehrauliRoadNew Delhi 110016Ph: 91-11-26567373

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G. SrinivasanScientist DE-mail: [email protected]

Development Alternatives, NewDelhiB-32, Taracrescent, Qutab InstitutionalAreaNew Delhi 110016Ph: 91-11-26851158Fax: 91-11-26866031

Kalipada ChatterjeeHead, Climate Change CentreEmail: [email protected]

Kavita SinghSamrat SenguptaVivek Kumar

Federation of Indian Chambers ofCommerce and Industry, New DelhiFederation House, 1 Tansen MargNew Delhi 110001Ph: 91-11-23325110Fax: 91-11-23320714

Rita Roy ChoudharyTeam Leader, EnvironmentE-mail: [email protected]

Forest Research Institute, DehradunP.O. New ForestDehradun 248006, Uttaranchal (UP)Ph: 91-135-2757021-28Fax: 91-135-2756865

M. N. JhaHead, Forest Soil Division and Advisorto D.G.. ICFREE-mail: [email protected],[email protected]

J. D. S. NegiM. K. GuptaN. S. Bisht

Forest Survey of India, DehradunKaulagarh Road, P.O., IPEDehradun 248195Ph: 91-135-2755037Fax: 91-135-2759104

Alok SaxenaJt. Director (NFDMC)E-mail: [email protected]

J. K. RawatP. C. JoshiParul SrivastavaPraveen JhaR. L. GandhiRajesh KumarS. DasguptaSubash Ashutosh

G.B. Pant Institute of HimalayanEnvironment & Development,SrinagarGarhwal Unit, P. O. Box 92,Srinagar (Garhwal) 246 174Ph: 91-1368-251159Fax: 91-1368-252061

R. K. MaikhuriAgro-ecologistE-mail: [email protected]

Guru Gobind Singh IndraprasthaUniversity, DelhiKashmere Gate, Delhi 110006Ph: 91-11-23861020Fax: 91-11-23865941

D. K. ChadhaPrincipal Advisor, School ofEnvironmental ManagementE-mail: [email protected]

India Meteorological Department,New DelhiMausam Bhavan, Lodhi RoadNew Delhi 110003Ph: 91-11- 24611710, 24611792Fax: 91-11-24611710

S. K. SrivastavaDirector GeneralE-mail: [email protected]

Indian Council for AgriculturalResearch (ICAR), KolkataCIFRI Research Station, CGOComplex2nd. Floor, C Wing, D-F BlockSalt Lake, Kolkata 110064

Kumud Naskar RanjanNational Fellow and Principal ScientistE-mail: [email protected]

Indian Agricultural ResearchInstitute, New DelhiUnit of Simulation & Informatics (USI)LBS Building (A-O Block)New Delhi 110012Ph: 91-11-25842490, 25841490Fax: 25843719

Naveen KalraHeadE-mail: [email protected]

Dinesh Chandra UpretyNational Fellow and Principal Scientist,Division of Plant PhysiologyEmail: [email protected]

Anil SharmaAnita ChaudharyArti BhatiaD. C. SaxenaH. PathakHitendra K. RaiJagpal SinghMadan PalMirzaman Z. HussainMonica JollyMukesh SehgalN. DwivediOwes AhmedPramod K. AggarwalR. ChoudharyR. L. SapraS. ChanderS. NagarajanShiv PrasadSujith KumarSushil KumarUday Anand SoniUttam K. Singh

Indian Institute of ForestManagement, BhopalNehru Nagar, Post Box No. 357,Bhopal 462003Ph: 91-755-2768064Fax: 91-755-2572878

Suprava PatnaikAssistant ProfessorE-mail: [email protected],[email protected]

Indian Institute of Management,AhmedabadVastrapur, Ahmedabad 380015Ph: 91-79-26324827Fax: 91-79-26306896

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Priyadarshi R. ShuklaProfessor and Chairman, PublicSystems GroupE-mail: [email protected]

Sunil Kumar MaheshwariProfessor and Chairman, Personneland Industrial Relations AreaE-mail : [email protected]

Arsi SaxenaAshwinkumar Ankit ShahBalasubramaniam SivaramanBhavani M. RaniBhavin KothariDebashish BiswasDeepa MenonKamal Kishore SharmaM. L. SushmaM. P. GaneshRajesh NairSalin KuruvillaTirthankar NagVatsal BhattVilas Kulkarni

Indian Institute of Petroleum,DehradunP.O. IIP, Mohkampur, Dehradun248005Ph: 91-135-2660099Fax: 91-135-2660202

Mukesh SaxenaHead, Engines LaboratoryE-mail: [email protected]

A. K. AigalA. K. JainS. K. Singal

Indian Institute of Science,BangaloreBangalore 560012Ph: 91-80-23601455Fax: 91-80-23601428

N. H. RavindranathChairman, Centre for SustainableTechnologies (CST) & AssociateFaculty, Centre for Ecological Sciences(CES)E-mail: [email protected]

N. V. JoshiChairman, Centre for EcologicalSciencesE-mail: [email protected]

R. SukumarProfessor, Centre for EcologicalSciencesE-mail: [email protected]

D. M. BhatH. S. SureshHameedulla KhanIndu K. MurthyP. R. BhatP. Sudha

Indian Institute of Technology, DelhiHauz Khas, New Delhi 110016Ph: 91-11-26591186Fax: 91-11-26581117

Ashvani Kumar GosainProfessor of Civil EngineeringE-mail: [email protected],[email protected]

Debajit Basu RayNavin Kumar G. B.Sandhya RaoTarun Ghawana

Indian Institute of Technology,KharagpurPh: 91-3222-282990Fax: 91-3222-282278

Suman ChakrabortyAssistant Professor, Department ofMechanical EngineeringEmail: [email protected]

Indian Institute of Technology,MumbaiPowai, Mumbai 400076Ph: 91-22-25767780Fax: 91-22-25723480

Anand PatwardhanAssociate Professor, SJ Mehta Schoolof ManagementE-mail: [email protected]

Arun B. InamdarD. ParthasarathyK. Narayanan

Indian Institute of TropicalMeteorology, PuneDr. Homi Bhabha RoadPashan, Pune 411008Ph: 91-20-25893600Fax: 91-20-25893825

Rupa Kumar KolliScientist F & Head, Climatology &Hydrometeorology DivisionE-mail: [email protected]

G. B. PantK. KamalaKrishna Kumar KanikicharlaN. R. DeshpandeSavita Kiran PatwardhanV. Prasanna

Indian Space ResearchOrganisation, BangaloreISRO Geosphere Biosphere Prog.ISRO Headquarters, AantarikshaBhawanBangalorePh: 91-80-3415296Fax: 91-80-3416183

V. JayaramanProgramme DirectorE-mail: [email protected]

C.B.S. DuttDeputy Programme DirectorE-mail: [email protected]

Indira Gandhi Institute ofDevelopment ResearchGen. A. K. Vaidya MargGoregaon (E) Mumbai 400065Ph: 91-22-28400918-19Fax: 91-22-284002752

Kirit ParikhE-mail: [email protected],[email protected]

Institute for Social and EconomicChange, BangaloreNagarabhavi P.O.Bangalore 560072Ph: 91-80-3215468Fax: 91-80-3217008

Shashanka BhideProfessor and Head of RBI UnitE-mail: [email protected]

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G. AparnaGopal K. KadekodiJeena T. Srinivasan

Institute of Radio-physics andElectronics, Calcutta University92, Acharya Prafulla Chandra RoadKolkata 700009Ph: 91-33-23509115Fax: 91-33-23515828

N. PurkaitHeadE-mail: [email protected],[email protected]

Anutosh ChatterjeeM. K. SenguptaMeenakshi ChatterjeeSanghamitra DeDasGupta

Integrated Research and Action forDevelopment, New DelhiC-50, Chotta Singh Block, AsianGames Village Complex, KhelgaonNew Delhi 110049Ph: 91-11-26495522Fax: 91-11-26495523

Jyoti K. ParikhExecutive DirectorE-mail: [email protected]

Amit ShekhawatAravindanNageswara RaoSeema Roy

Jadavpur University, KolkataKolkata 700032Ph: 91-33-24146666Fax: 91-33-23357254

Asis Kumar MazumdarJoint Director, School of WaterResources EngineeringE-mail: [email protected],[email protected]

Niladri ChakrabortyReader, Department of Power PlantEngineeringE-mail:[email protected]

Sugata HazraProfessor and Director, School ofOceanographic StudiesE-mail: [email protected]

A. N. BasuApurba Kumar SantraBalaram BoseDebasri RoyGoutam Kumar SenGopinath BhandariIndranil MukherjeeJoyashree RoyMadhumita ChakrabortyPranabes SanyalSantayan Chowdhury

Jawaharlal Nehru University, NewDelhiSchool of Environmental SciencesNew Delhi 110067Ph: 91-11-26717676Fax: 91-11-26172438

A. L. RamanathanAssociate ProfessorE-mail: [email protected],[email protected]

K. G. SaxenaProfessorEmail: [email protected]

Syed Iqbal HasnainChairman, HIGH ICE, India andProfessor of Glaciology and Vice-Chancellor, University of Calicut,KeralaEmail: [email protected]

Bala Krishna Prasad MathukumalliP. S. RamakrishnanRajesh Kumar

Kerala Forest Research Institute,KeralaSub Centre, NilamburChandakkunnu P.O. NilamburMalappuram District, Kerala 680653Ph: 91-4931-222846Fax: 91-4931-220969

U. M. ChandrashekaraScientist in chargeE-mail: [email protected],[email protected]

Malaria Research Centre, DelhiIndian Council of Medical Research22, Sham Nath Marg, Delhi 110054Ph: 91-11-27441279Fax: 91-11-27234234

Ramesh C. DhimanDeputy DirectorE-mail: [email protected]

Sarala K. SubbaraoSharmila BhattacharjeeTridibesh Adak

Maulana Azad National Institute ofTechnology, BhopalBhopal 462007 (M.P.)Ph: 91-755-2670416Fax: 0755- 2670562

Manmohan KapsheSenior Lecturer, Department ofArchitecture and PlanningE-mail: [email protected]

Aashish DeshpandeAshutosh SharmaCharumitra KapsheP. K. Chande

National Chemical Laboratory, PuneProcess Development DivisionPashan Road, Pune 411008Ph: 91-20-25893300Fax: 91-20-25893359

Mohd. Shadbar QureshiP. V. RaoSaroja Asthana

National Council for Cement andBuilding Materials, Ballabgarh34 Km Stone, Delhi-Mathura Road(NH-2)Ballabgarh 121004 (Haryana)Ph: 91-129-2242051-55Fax: 91-129-2242100

B. S. RoyHead of CentreMining, Environment, PlantEngineering & OperationE-mail: [email protected]

A. K. SolankeyM. S. BhagwatM. SelvarajanNaresh Kumar

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S. N. PatiShiban RainaSonia LalY. P. Sethi

National Dairy Research Institute,KarnalDCN DivisionKarnal 132001Ph: 91-184-2259050Fax: 91-184-250042

K. K. SinghalPrincipal ScientistE-mail: [email protected]

Anil KumarAshwani KumarMadhu MohiniMunish BhardwajParasu Ram SinghSatish KumarVineet Kumar

National Environmental EngineeringResearch Institute, NagpurSolid Waste Management Division(SWMD)Nehru Marg, Nagpur 440020Ph: 91-712-2249999Fax: 91-712-2249900

Sukumar DevottaDirectorEmail: [email protected]

A.V. ShekdarAmor Nath MondalM. KarthikPrasad KshirsagarR. N. Singh (Ex-Director)S. A. GaikwadS. N. KaulSunil KumarV. U. Muley

National Institute of AdvancedStudies, BangaloreIndian Institute of Science Campus,Bangalore 560012Ph: 91-80-3606594Fax: 91-80-3606634

Dilip R. AhujaE-mail: [email protected]

National Institute ofOceanography, GoaDona Paula, Goa 403004Ph: 91-832-2450338Fax: 91-832-2450602

Onkar S. ChauhanGroup Leader, Environmental IssuesE-mail: [email protected]

T. G. JagtapScientist, Biological OceanographyE-mail: [email protected]

A. A. A. MenezesA. S. UnnikrishnanFreda Beatrice CoutinhoJ. SuneethiR. FurtadoS. CharulataSupriya NaikZakir Ali Ansari

National Physical Laboratory, NewDelhiK.S. Krishnan MargNew Delhi 110012Ph: 91-11-25742610-12Fax: 91-11-25726938

Ashesh Prasad MitraScientist of Eminence and Ex. DG-CSIRE-mail: [email protected]

Prabhat K. GuptaScientist E-II, Analytic ChemistrySectionE-mail: [email protected],[email protected]

A. K. SarkarArvind Kumar JhaChandrakant DixitChhemendra SharmaDharam Pal SinghH. P. NarangManoj JosephMonika TomarNahar SinghNiranjan SinghPratul SharmaRekha TiwariS. C. GargS. KoulShivraj SahaiVaishali PradhanVandana Gupta

Regional Research Laboratory,BhubaneswarBhubaneswar 751013 (Orissa)Ph: 91-674-2584091-92Fax: 91-674-2581637

S. N. DasScientist E-IIE-mail: [email protected],[email protected]

Ruby DasY. V. Swamy

Remote Sensing ApplicationsCentre, LucknowSector G, Jankipuram, Kursi RoadLucknow 226021Ph: 91-522-2363125Fax: 91-522-2361535E-mail: [email protected]

Anjani K. TangriScientist SF

C. B. VermaLav PrasadRam ChandraS. K. S. YadavSarita

Tamil Nadu Agricultural University,CoimbatoreCoimbatore 641003, Tamil NaduPh: 91-422-2430657Fax: 91-422-2431672

R. SelvarajuDepartment of Agricultural MeteorologyE-mail: [email protected]

The Energy and Resources Institute,New DelhiDarbari Seth Block, Habitat Place, LodiRoadNew Delhi 110003Ph: 91-11-24682100Fax: 91-11-24682144

R. K. PachauriDirector-GeneralE-mail: [email protected]

Preety BhandariAssociate DirectorEmail: [email protected]

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Ulka KelkarArea Convener, Centre for GlobalEnvironment ResearchE-mail: [email protected]

Suruchi BhadwalResearch Associate, Centre for GlobalEnvironment ResearchE-mail: [email protected]

A. G.ChachadiAbhishek NathAmit Kumar TyagiAnurag PandeyArundhati DasAtreyi PaulB. S. ChoudhriD. D. AroraD. D. Bhujang RaoDebashis PramanikDinesh AggarwalGirish SethiKapil Kumar NarulaLigia NoronhaP. P. MadhusoodananPankaj MohanRitu BhardwajShashank JainT. P. SinghVarghese PaulVivek Sharma

Tripura University, AgartalaAquatic Environment and LimnologyResearch UnitDepartment of Life ScienceSuryamaninagar 799130, Tripura(Agartala)Ph: 91-381- 2322302Fax: 91-381-2384780

Sukanta BanikReader in Life ScienceE-mail: [email protected]

S. K. Debnath

University of Agricultural Sciences,DharwadRegional Agricultural Research StationP. B. No. 18, Bijapur 586101,KarnatakaPh: 91-8352-200194Fax: 91-8352-200194

Hosahalli VenkateshAgrometeorologist, AICRPAME-mail:[email protected]

M. A. BellakkiM. Y. TeggiMahadevareddyS. G. AskiS. M. Warad

Wildlife Institute of India, DehradunDepartment of Habitat EcologyP.O.Box # 18, ChandrabaniDehradun 248001Ph: 91-135-2640112Fax: 91-135-2640117

Bhupendra Singh AdhikariSenior LecturerE-mail: [email protected]

Gopal S. RawatHead & Senior ReaderE-mail: [email protected]

Winrock International India,New Delhi(Facilitating Agency)1, Navjeevan ViharNew Delhi -110017Ph: 91-11-26693868Fax: 91-11-26693881

Kinsuk MitraPresidentE-mail: [email protected]

Arun KumarAshish RanaBhawani Shankar TripathyJaison JoseKunal BhardwajMeene M. GangulyRajiv BarrotShashikant ChopdeSudhir Sharma

Independent ConsultantsArvind Gajanan UntawaleManoj Srivastava

Photo-editing and ResearchManu BahugunaDeleks Namgyal

PhotoIndia.comK-99, Sector 25Noida-201301Ph: 91-120-3090658, 2540972E-mail: [email protected]

Photographs contributed bywww.photoindia.comOUTLOOKIndia Picture

Annex-III

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India’s Initial National Communication

2001� Inception workshop for India’s Initial National Communication to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate

Change, 22 November 2001, New Delhi, 87 participants� Seminar on Climate Change: Issues, Concerns and Opportunities, 23 November 2001, New Delhi, 53 participants� Targeted Research on Climate Change in India, 26 November 2001, New Delhi, 48 participants� Workshop on Good Practices in Inventory Development, 27-30 November 2001, New Delhi, 80 participants� Seminar on Reducing Uncertainties in Inventory Estimates, 28 November 2001, New Delhi, 24 participants� Workshop on Inventory Development, 3-5 December 2001, Ahmedabad, 41 participants� Workshop on Future Socio-economic Scenario Generation and Emission Projections, 6-7 December 2001, Ahmedabad, 30

participants� Workshop on Climate Change: Impact Assessment, Vulnerability and Adaptation Strategies, 17-19 December 2001, Kolkata,

55 participants

2002� National Communication workshop on Inventory Development, Uncertainty Reduction, and Vulnerability Assessment and

Adaptation Strategies – Forestry Sector, 7-8 February 2002, Bangalore, 30 participants� Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation workshop, 6 March 2002, New Delhi, 17 participants� National Seminar on Global Warming and Our Water Resources, 14-15 April 2002, Kolkata, 67 participants� National Seminar on Vulnerability of Sundarban Mangrove Ecosystem in the Perspective of Global Climate Change, 14-15

June 2002, Kolkata, 55 participants� Conference on Climate Change and Industry: Issues and Opportunities, 13 July 2002, Chennai, 82 participants� Conference on Climate Change: Issues and Opportunities, 11 September 2002, Guwahati, 180 participants� Inventory Estimation workshop, 12 September 2002, New Delhi, 18 participants� Workshop on Uncertainty Reduction in GHG Inventory, 8-9 October 2002, New Delhi, 32 participants

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Annex-IV

2004� Consultation Meeting on Climate Change and India: Uncertainty Reduction in GHG Inventory Estimations, 12 February

2004, New Delhi, 18 participants� National Workshop on India’s Initial National Communication, 26 March 2004, New Delhi, 125 participants

2003� Workshop on Other Information, 15 February 2003, Bangalore, 11 participants� Workshop on Finalization of Emission Coefficients Derived from Uncertainty Component of NATCOM, 4-5 March 2003, New

Delhi, 30 participants� Workshop on Finalization of GHG Emission Inventories, 27 March 2003, New Delhi, 35 participants� Workshop on Synthesis of Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Studies and Future Climate Change Research Needs,

28 March 2003, New Delhi, 26 participants� Workshop on Finalization of GHG Emission Inventories from Agriculture sector, 2 April 2003, New Delhi, 11 participants� Workshop on Finalization of GHG Inventory in Landuse, Landuse Change and Forestry Sector, 6-7 May 2003, Dehradun, 16

participants� Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation workshop on Water Resources, Coastal Zones and Human Health, 27-28 June

2003, New Delhi, 30 participants� Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation workshop on Agriculture, Forestry and Natural Ecosystems, 18-19 July 2003,

Bangalore, 40 participants� Workshop on Scenarios and Future Emissions, 22 July 2003, Ahmedabad, 25 participants

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India’s Initial National Communication

Climate Change and India: Issues, Concerns and Opportunities

A Tata McGraw Hill Publication, Delhi, 2002

Editors:P. R. ShuklaSubodh K. Sharma

P. Venkata Ramana

India’s commitment to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is reflected in thevarious initiatives which have been taken at the national level for sustainable development and climate change. Environmentalprotection and sustainable development have emerged as key national priorities and manifest in India’s planned approach tosocio-economic development and poverty eradication. Conservation and resource management are integral to the country’sdevelopment plans. A sound environmental policy and law framework is also in place. Recent economic liberalization policieshave seen new strides in technology upgradation, cleaner fuels, efficiencies in production and environmentally soundpractices. At the same time, Indian society’s traditional respect for the ecology, rivers and nature remains as strongly rootedas ever in the country’s quest for sustainable and climate friendly development.

Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India organized a seminar at New Delhi to articulate the issues, concernsand opportunities for India resulting from climate change. Eminent experts were invited to contribute papers towards this objective.The book consolidates the papers presented at the seminar. The themes included integrated perspectives on climate change interms of GHG inventory status and projections; sustainable development issues; climate change impacts and adaptation forIndia; climate change and Indian forestry and agriculture sectors; mitigation options using renewable energy technologies; andchallenges, opportunities and responses of the Indian industry vis-a-vis climate change.

Climate Change and India: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation

A Universities Press Publication, Hyderabad, 2003

Editors:P. R. ShuklaSubodh K. SharmaN. H. RavindranathAmit Garg

Sumana Bhattacharya

The global scientific assessments present the picture of a warming world and other changes in the climate system. There isincreasing evidence to attribute the warming to human activities, which will continue to change atmospheric composition throughoutthe 21

st century. This book provides assessments of the impacts, vulnerabilities and adaptation needs for the key economic and

ecological sectors of India. The assessments are undertaken keeping in view the regionally disaggregated projections of climatechange over the Indian sub-continent. The sectors assessed include water, agriculture, forestry, eco-systems, health, coastalzones, energy and infrastructure. The complexity of the assessments in India derives from geographical diversity, close interfaceof economy and culture with monsoon, diverse and unique ecosystems, rising trends of population and economy, and relativescarcity of natural resources compared to growing demand. The book includes the state-of-the-art assessments by recognized

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Climate Change and India: Uncertainty Reduction in GHG Inventories (jn press)

A Universities Press Publication, Hyderabad, 2004

Editors:A. P. MitraSukumar DevottaSubodh SharmaSumana BhattacharyaAmit Garg

Kalyan Sen

The critical factors on which the reliability of GHG inventory depends are emission coefficients and activity data used. Thereliability of the activity data depends on the sources from where it is derived and the statistical reliability of the samplingmade to ascertain the total activity in a country. Similarly, country-specific emission coefficients representing indigenousconditions are more appropriate for use for developing a national inventory. Considering these concerns, an effort was madeunder the aegis of India’s Initial National Communication, to reduce uncertainty in GHG inventory estimates from thecountry. Measurements were conducted to derive GHG emission coefficients for some key source categories that contributesignificantly to the total national GHG inventory. These include determination of NCV of different types of coal in India, CO

2

emission coefficients for the cement manufacturing process, GHG emission from transport sector, CH4 from fugitive emissions

in coal mining, N2O emission from nitric acid production, CH

4 emissions from agricultural activities such as rice cultivation

and enteric fermentation and CH4 from solid waste management. The activity data which have been closely scrutinized for

reducing uncertainty include allocation of fuel in the road transport sector and activities related to the land use and land coverchange and forestry sectors. This book synthesizes sectoral papers contributed by participating experts and also suggestsfuture activities that will help in strengthening India’s emissions inventories further. The effort, considering the limited timeavailable was remarkably extensive and productive.

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Indian experts from diverse disciplines. The four key contributions of the book are: first, the use of formal assessment toolsunder developing country contexts; second, the articulation and quantification of climate change and emissions scenarios forIndia; third, the consistency of assessments vis-à-vis future climate change projections; and fourth, the focus on developmentfor delineating conclusions and tasks. The contents of the book shall be of interest to policy-makers; researchers and modelersengaged in impact assessment; global environmental assessment programs and development experts. The book is an excellentaddition to the growing literature on global environmental assessment methodology, policies and perspectives.

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Proceedings of the NATCOMWorkshop on UncertaintyReduction in GHG InventoryEstimatesMarch 4-5, 2003, Delhi

Proceedings of the NATCOMworkshop on VulnerabilityAssessment and Adaptation due toclimate change on WaterResources, Coastal Zones andHuman HealthJune 27-28, 2003, Delhi

Proceedings contain the results of the investigations in thesectors water resources, coastal zones and human health.The proceedings include papers on impact of climate changeon Chhota Shigri glacier, Chenab basin and Gangotri glacier,Ganga headwater in the Himalaya; ground water resourcesof Deccan Besalt and Ganga basin; malaria in India withemphasis on selected cities; impact of sea level rise onsurface inundation and salt water intrusion in Goa;biogeochemical modeling studies of the Achankovil riverbasin; vulnerability assessment and adaptation for watersector, sea level rise along the Coast of India; lower Ganga-Brahmaputra-Meghna Basins, assessment of climate driverscontrolling malaria, Sundarban island system; and increasingcommunity resilience for adaptation to adverse impacts.

Proceedings of the NATCOMworkshop on Scenarios and FutureEmissionsJuly 22, 2003, Ahmedabad

Proceedings of the NATCOMworkshop on VulnerabilityAssessment and Adaptation due toclimate change on Agriculture,Forestry and Natural EcosystemsJuly 18-19, 2003, Bangalore

Proceedings contain the results of the investigations forclimate and emission scenarios and future green house gasemissions. The proceedings include papers on nationalcircumstances for a sustainable future; regional climatechange scenarios; future scenarios of extreme rainfall andtemperature, emission scenarios and CO2 emissionprojections; estimation of present and future emissions ofHFCs, PFCs and SF6 from Indian industry; future methaneand N2O emissions; impacts of climate change on energy,industry and infrastructure.

Proceedings contain papers on uncertainty reduction inestimation of greenhouse gas inventories from coal firedpower plants & integrated steel plant; thermal power plants;coal mining and handling activities; road transport sector;rice fields; CO2 emissions in cement plants; lime productionprocess; dolomite mineral use; N2O emission coefficient fromnitric acid production; rice cultivation; CH4 and N2O emissionfrom flooded rice soils; CH4 emissions from livestocks; CH4

and N2O emission from agricultural soils; field burning ofagricultural crop residue; CH4 emission from municipal solidwaste landfills; quality assurance, and the LULUCF sector.

Proceedings contain the results of the investigations in thesectors agriculture, forestry, and natural ecosystems. Theseinclude papers on impact of enhanced CO2

concentration on

crop growth; assessment of impacts of climate change oncrop yields; irrigated and rainfed crop production systems;forests; mangrove forests along the southern west coast;meadows and mountain ecosystems; marine ecosystems;natural ecosystems; lotic ecosystem; Garhwal Himalayanforests; wet evergreen and shola forests of Kerala; Kachchhdistrict of Gujarat; case study of sequestration of carbonthrough afforestation; and GIS based evaluation of climatechange impacts on hydrology.

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Towards the preparation of India’s Initial NationalCommunication (NATCOM) to the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate ChangeJune 2002

Towards the preparation of India’s Initial NationalCommunication (NATCOM) to the United NationsFramework Convention on Climate ChangeNovember 2002

A Compendium of Activities: India’s NATCOM onthe World Wide WebMay 2003

India’s Initial National Communication (NATCOM) to theUnited Nations Framework Convention on Climate ChangeNovember 2003Publicity material

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