FROM HERE TO THERE Pathways Toward a Sustainable Future
Mohammad Zaidi 9 September 2013
Sustainability and the Role of Business: A collaborative effort involving 29 global companies representing 14 industries
Megatrends: growth, inertia, opportunities
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
1950 1975
Life expectancy (years)
2000 2025 2050
The growing world population is increasingly urban The global middle class is rapidly expanding
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Population in millions
Life expectancy by region – 1950-2050
People, worldwide, are living longer
02 0 0 5 2 0 3 0
2
4
6
8
1 0
1 2
1 4
1 6
4 0 0 m illio n
1 .2 b illio n
Percent of global population
Source: UNDP, OECD, World Bank, WBCSD
0
China
United States
India
Brazil
Mexico
Russia
Indonesia
Japan
United Kingdom
Germany
10,000
20,000
30,000GDP 2006 US$ bn
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000Global economic power is shifting
Top 10 economies by GDP in 2050
Supply and demand: risks & challanges
Business As Usual Will Require Resources of 2.3 Planets by 2050
1970
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GtCO2eq
GHG emissions by regions
Greenhouse gas emissions keep rising
0
2030
2005
2030
2005
2030
2005
500 1,000 1,500 2,000
Millions of people
2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000
People living in areas of water stress by level of stress
Environmental degradation jeopardizes people’s quality of life and economy
An aging population will stress healthcare & income distribution
World population by age (millions)
0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
World average biocapacity per person in 2006
World average biocapacity per person in 1961 UNDP threshold for high human development
High human developmentwithin the Earth’s limits
2
4
6
8
10
12
Ecological Footprint (global hectares per person)
United Nations Human Development Index
A frican countries
Asian countries
European countries
Latin American andCaribbean countries
North American countries
Oceanian countries
Source: Global Footprint Network, UNDP, OECD, World Bank, WBCSD
The Vision for 2050
"Must – Haves" for a Sustainable 2050 - A selected set of 40 measures for ten key sectors
Doubling of Agricultural output without increasing the amount of land or water used. Cropland efficiency for cereal production to double in Africa.
Halting deforestation. 75% of fiber for paper and packaging to be supplied by planted forests ( as opposed to natural forests).
Freshwater supply to double in Asia-pacific and Africa.
Halving carbon emissions worldwide ( from 2005 baseline) by 2050 with GHG emissions peaking in 2020. This leads to containing average global temperature rise to 2 deg C.
Delivering a 5X improvement in use of resources and materials.
Incorporating the cost of externalities , starting with carbon, ecosystem services and water.
Education to shift fertility rates to around replacement levels.
Pathways to Vision: 350 Milestones on 10 Tracks: energy, buildings, materials, mobility, economy, people governance, forests, agriculture, ecosystems
Sustainability at Alcoa PRODUCTION of Aluminum:
GHG emissions reduction – 44% since 1990
Inert anode in development – zero CO2 emissions from Smelter
Carbon capture technology.
Waste products for water purification.
Continuous casting of sheet with 60-70 % less footprint.
APPLICATIONS of Aluminum:
Light weighting of transport sector ( 6-10% fuel efficiency): From Airplanes to Cars to Trucks
Note: 10% fuel efficiency enables 75 billion gallons of annual fuel savings and 600 million MT of CO2 reduction across all transportation segments, globally)
Buildings : Eco-clean and smog reduction. 100,000 sq.ft façade = 80 trees
Consumer Electronics: Aesthetics and thermal management
RECYCLING of Aluminum:
Cans, Cars, Building products, consumer electronics
Infinitely recyclable: 75% of all aluminum produced in past 120 years is still in use. Uses 95% less energy and produces 95% less GHG than primary aluminum.
Pathways to a Sustainable Future
1. Proliferation of Best Practices and Efficiencies.
1. Affordable Transformations and their global deployment
Generally driven by top-down organizational structures
Energy
Water
Forestry
Metals
Health & education
Agriculture & Food
Annual value in 2050 at constant 2008 prices
US$ trillion
0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4
Sustainability related business opportunity : From $ 1 trillion / yr. in 2020 to $6.2 trillion/ yr. in 2050
Source: PwC estimates drawing on data from IEA, OECD and the World Bank
Afina
Braemar Portfolio Lighting Efficiency / Demand Response Renewable Fuels & Chemicals
Storage Fossil Fuels Other
Conclusions
1. Global sustainability challenges will become the key strategic drivers for business and innovation.
2. Technology, Business innovation and global collaborations can create pathways to a sustainable world.
3. Business must work closely with governments and society worldwide to transform markets, prices and competition.
4. Vision 2050 lays out the pathways and outlines vast new business opportunities - US$ 6 - 10 trillion annually.
We can achieve the Vision: 9 billion people living well, within the means of 1 planet
Hierarchy vs. Network
Global Connectivity
Low cost Sensing and ‘Big data’ Computing
Affordable Trans-
formations Gaming
Crowd-Funding
Pathways to a Sustainable Future
1. Proliferation of Best Practices and Efficiencies.
1. Affordable Transformations and their global deployment
2. Self Organization
The Power of Self-Organization
