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Page 1: 2nd july (thursday),2015 daily exclusive oryza e rice newsletter by riceplus magazine

1 Daily Exclusive ORYZA Rice E-Newsletter by Riceplus Magazine |

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July 2 ,2015

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FAO Estimates Iran to Import 1.6 Million

Tons of Rice in 2015-16

Jul 01, 2015

The UN's Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) estimates Iran to import around 1.6 million

tons of rice in 2015-16 (April - March).The Middle East nation has imposed a temporary ban on

rice imports in November 2014 citing excess stocks and has so far not announced removal of the

ban. Iran mostly imports basmati rice from India. According to data from the Agricultural and

Processed Food Products Export Development Authority (APEDA) in India, Iran imported

around 935,568 tons of basmati rice in 2014-15 (April - March), down about 35% from around

1.44 million tons last year.However, the FAO estimates the country's total cereal imports to

decline about 8% y/y to around 14.9 million tons.The FAO estimates Iran's 2015 paddy

production to increase about 2% to around 2.65 million tons from around 2.6 million tons last

year.

Thailand Rice Sellers Increase Some of Their

Quotes Today; India Rice Quotes Mixed

Jul 01, 2015

Thailand rice sellers increased their quotes for parboiled rice and Hommali rice by about $5 per

ton each to around $375-$385 per ton and $830-$840 per ton respectively. India rice sellers

lowered their quotes for 5% broken rice and 100% broken rice by about $5 per ton each to

around $380-$390 per ton and $275-$285 per ton respectively and increased their quotes for

parboiled rice by about $5 per ton to around $365-$375 per ton. Other Asia rice sellers kept their

quotes mostly unchanged today.

5% Broken Rice

Thailand 5% rice is indicated at around $365 - $375 per ton, about a $15 per ton premium on

Vietnam 5% rice shown at around $350 - $360 per ton. India 5% rice is indicated at around $380

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- $390 per ton, down about a $5 per ton from yesterday and about a $5 per ton premium on

Pakistan 5% rice shown at around $375 - $385 per ton.

25% Broken Rice

Thailand 25% rice is shown at around $345 - $3505 per ton, about a $20 per ton premium on

Vietnam 25% rice shown at around $325 - $335 per ton. India 25% rice is indicated at around

$350 - $360, about $15 per ton premium on Pakistan 25% rice shown at around $335 - $345 per

ton.

Parboiled Rice

Thailand parboiled rice is indicated at around $375 - $385 per ton, up about a $5 per ton from

yesterday. India parboiled rice is indicated at around $365- $375per ton, up about a $5 per ton

from yesterday and about a $30 per ton discount to Pakistan parboiled rice last shown at around

$395 - $405 per ton.

100% Broken Rice

Thailand broken rice, A1 Super, is indicated at around $315 - $325 per ton, about $5 per ton

premium on Vietnam 100% broken rice shown at around $310 - $320 per ton. India's 100%

broken rice is shown at around $275 - $285 per ton, down about a $5 per ton from yesterday and

about a $15 per ton discount to Pakistan broken sortexed rice shown at around $290 - $300 per

ton.

Indonesia May Register Biggest Annual

Paddy Rice Output in Last Ten Years, Says

BPS

Jul 01, 2015

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Indonesia's Central Statistics Agency (BPS) has estimated that the country's 2015 paddy rice

output would increase by about 6.64% to around 75.5 million tons (around 49.83 million tons,

basis milled) from around 70.85 million tons (around 46.76 million tons, basis milled) last year,

according to Jakarta Post.The agency noted that this would be the biggest annual increase in the

last ten years. “The significant increase in rice output this year could happen because of various

initiatives undertaken by the government, notably in the distribution of pumps, tractors and

fertilizers,” the BPS Head was quoted as saying.

According to the BPS, 2015 paddy rice acreage is estimated to increase about 512,060 hectares

or 3.7% y/y to around 14.31 million hectares and average yield during the year is expected to

increased about 0.145 tons per hectare or 2.85% y/y to around 5.28 tons per hectare.The

government aimed to increase 2015 paddy rice production by about 4% to around 73.4 million

tons (around 48.44 million tons, basis milled) in order to be self-sufficient in rice production and

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avoid imports. Indonesia's new President who took over in October 2014 is keen on achieving

self-sufficiency in basic food items such as rice, corn and sugar over the next four years.

Indonesian government has so far not imported any rice in 2015. It imported 425,000 tons in

2014 through the state logistics agency Bulog. But analysts say less stocks and lower production

due to El Nino weather pattern could prompt the government to import rice in the second half of

the year.USDA estimates Indonesia to produce around 36.3 million tons of rice, basis milled

(around 57.17 million tons, basis paddy), and import around 1.25 million tons of rice in MY

2014-15 (October - September).

Global Rice Quotes

July 1st, 2015

Long grain white rice - high quality

Thailand 100% B grade 375-385 ↔

Vietnam 5% broken 350-360 ↔

India 5% broken 380-390 ↓

Pakistan 5% broken 375-385 ↔

Myanmar 5% broken 415-425 ↔

Cambodia 5% broken 425-435 ↔

U.S. 4% broken 450-460 ↔

Uruguay 5% broken 565-575 ↔

Argentina 5% broken 555-565 ↔

Long grain white rice - low quality

Thailand 25% broken 345-355 ↔

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Vietnam 25% broken 325-335 ↔

Pakistan 25% broken 335-345 ↔

Cambodia 25% broken 410-420 ↔

India 25% broken 350-360 ↔

U.S. 15% broken 440-450 ↔

Long grain parboiled rice

Thailand parboiled 100% stxd 375-385 ↑

Pakistan parboiled 5% broken stxd NQ ↔

India parboiled 5% broken stxd 365-375 ↑

U.S. parboiled 4% broken 555-565 ↔

Brazil parboiled 5% broken 570-580 ↔

Uruguay parboiled 5% broken NQ ↔

Long grain fragrant rice

Thailand Hommali 92% 830-840 ↑

Vietnam Jasmine 475-485 ↔

India basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Pakistan basmati 2% broken NQ ↔

Cambodia Phka Mails 835-845 ↔

Brokens

Thailand A1 Super 315-325 ↔

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Vietnam 100% broken 310-320 ↔

Pakistan 100% broken stxd 290-300 ↔

Cambodia A1 Super 350-360 ↔

India 100% broken stxd 275-285 ↓

Egypt medium grain brokens NQ ↔

U.S. pet food 350-360 ↔

Brazil half grain NQ ↔

All prices USD per ton, FOB vessel, oryza.com

Oryza Overnight Recap – Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Continue to Show Strength

Despite Grains Showing Signs of

Retracement Today

Jul 01, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery are currently seen trading 4.5 cent per cwt (about $1

per ton) higher at $10.500 per cwt (about $231 per ton) during early floor trading in

Chicago. The other grains are seen trading mostly lower this morning; soybeans are currently

seen trading about 0.5% lower, wheat is listed about 2.8% lower and corn is currently noted

about 0.1% lower.U.S. stocks gained nearly 1% on Wednesday, as investors regained hope of a

resolution between Greece and its creditors. The Dow Jones industrial average quickly gained

more than 170 points in the open as the major indices extended gains. The Nasdaq Composite

also briefly jumped 1 percent as biotechs advanced.

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The Dow futures leaped more than 160 points on morning news that Greece Prime Minister

Alexis Tsipras accepted lenders' conditions in a two-page letter originally sent to the heads of the

European Commission that requested only minor tweaks to their suggestions on pensions and tax

reforms. European equities surged on the news, with the DAX up 2.5%. The Athens stock

exchange remained closed for the third day. The Eurogroup of regional finance ministers will

hold a conference call Wednesday on Greece's latest proposal, but will not likely make a decision

until after Sunday's planned referendum, officials told Reuters. In the United

States, Wednesday kicks off two days of data reports before the July 4 holiday.

The final June U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Mangers' index fell to 53.6, its lowest since

October 2013, Markit said. The ADP private sector employment report showed creation of

237,000 jobs, topping expectations of 218,000. U.S. stocks closed mildly higher on Tuesday,

with the S&P 500 eking out its narrowest gain on record for the first half of the year. The Dow

Jones Industrial Average traded up 161 points, or 0.92%, at 17,781. The S&P 500 traded up 15

points, or 0.75%, at 2,078, with financials leading nine sectors higher and energy the only

decliner. The Nasdaq traded up 42 points, or 0.84%, at 5,028. Gold is currently trading about

0.4% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 2% lower, and the U.S. dollar is currently trading

about 0.7% higher at 9:00am Chicago time.

High Domestic Prices in China Increase

Demand for Rice Imports, Says USDA Post

Jul 01, 2015

USDA Post estimates China's MY 2015-16 rice imports at around 4.7 million tons, up about

17.5% from an estimated 4 million tons in MY 2014-15 and unchanged from USDA's official

estimates. The Post expects an increase in this year's imports due to high domestic

prices.Increased smuggling in southern China is posing a challenge to the government, according

to the Post. The government has reportedly seized over 200,000 tons of milled rice in 2014.

The Post has lowered estimates for MY 2014-15 imports by 400,000 tons due to the delayed

release of rice TRQs in 2015. Based on trade statistics, the Post reports that Thailand has

overtaken Vietnam as largest exporter to China in 2014-15. It reports that Thailand has

also adjusted its policies to encourage rice exports following its change in government.

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USDA Post estimates China's MY 2015-16 paddy rice production at around 206.4 million tons,

unchanged from last year and slightly lower from USDA's official estimates of around 208.57

million tons as it expects yields to be negatively impacted by El Nino, with the potential for both

droughts and flooding in rice growing regions. Cold weather in early May delayed seeding

process in northern regions. However, the Post expects the high support prices to encourage

increase in acreage and production.

The Post estimates China's MY 2014-15 rice consumption at around 149 million tons, up from

last year's 147 million tons and down from USDA's official estimates of 151 million tons. The

Post says high prices, inconsistent quality of state rice reserves, and changing consumption

patterns are all contributing to lower consumption growth. On the other hand, CNGOIC forecasts

the food demand, industrial and feed demand to decline about 1%, 9% and 4% respectively in

2015-16.Lower consumption means higher stocks and the Post estimates higher stocks in MY

2014-15 and MY 2015-16. Buyers are not showing interest to buy rice from the stocks due to

poor quality and higher prices, says the Post. Only 2% of around 7.87 million tons of rice

auctioned from the state reserves have been sold in April 2015.

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Nigeria's Forex Troubles May Lower Indian

Non-Basmati Rice Exports by 10%, Say

Exporters

Jul 01, 2015

Nigeria's recent decision to stop forex (dollar) sales to rice and other commodity importers to

protect its dwindling forex reserves and depreciating naira is expected to lower India's total non-

basmati rice exports by at least 10% this year, Hindu Business Line quoted some exporters.India

accounts for nearly half of Nigeria's annual rice import needs of about 2.5 million tons. Nigeria

mostly imports parboiled rice from India. A leading non-basmati rice exporter told reporters that

the Nigerian move has slowed down rice shipments from India. He noted that it would in fact

affect exports of all origins.

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Exporters noted that the depreciation of naira against the dollar coupled with falling crude oil

prices and change in the government have affected India's exports to Nigeria, but payments have

been unaffected as Indian exporters route their shipments through global traders like Platinum

Corp and Louis Dreyfus.They expressed confidence that the government would soon react to

falling stocks and increasing demand. India exported around 330,279 tons of rice to Nigeria in

2014-15 (April - March), according to the Agricultural & Processed Food Products Export

Development Authority (APEDA).

The Nigerian currency depreciated by about 26% to around N196.95/USD from around

N155.2/USD during in January 2014, according to data from the CBN.

Nigeria has been a net importer of rice and imports over 50% of its annual rice consumption

needs. USDA estimates the country to produce 2.83 million tons of milled rice in the MY 2014-

15 (October 2014 - September 2014) and import about 4 million tons. The country's consumption

needs during the year are estimated at around 6.4 million tons.India exported around 8.3 million

tons of non-basmati rice in 2014-15, up about 17% from around 7.1 million tons in 2013-14,

according to the APEDA data.

Oryza Afternoon Recap – Chicago Rough

Rice Futures Continue to Rally as Market

Continues to Weigh Reduction in Acres and

Firming Asian Prices

Jul 01, 2015

Chicago rough rice futures for Sep delivery settled 17 cents per cwt (about $4 per ton) higher at

$10.625 per cwt (about $234 per ton). The other grains traded mostly lower in morning trading

but managed to close off of session lows for the day; Soybeans closed about 0.7% lower at

$10.2950 per bushel; wheat finished about 4.4% lower at $5.8850 per bushel, and corn finished

the day about 0.1% higher at $4.3175 per bushel.U.S. stocks held higher in choppy trade on

Wednesday, as investors eyed better-than-expected data and the latest developments between

Greece and its creditors. Investors remained optimistic of a deal for Greece despite Prime

Minister Alexis Tsipras' statements the country will go ahead with the referendum on Sunday

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and that it is not a determinant of whether or not Greece remains in the euro zone, Reuters

reported.

Financials led advancers in the S&P 500, gaining about 1% as yields climbed. European equities

surged on renewed hopes of a Greece deal, with the DAX up more than 2%. The Athens stock

exchange remained closed for the third day in a row. The Eurogroup of regional finance

ministers concluded a conference call Wednesday on Greece's latest proposal. No other meeting

is expected before Sunday's referendum. Investors also kept an eye on Puerto Rico, which has

indicated difficulty repaying its debt of $72 billion.

On Wednesday, the island's electric power authority, or PREPA, reached a deal with its creditors

to make its $416 million payment. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded up 98 points, or

0.56%, at 17,718. The S&P 500 traded up 10 points, or 0.50%, at 2,073, with financials leading

nine sectors higher and energy the only decliner. The Nasdaq traded up 18 points, or 0.37%, at

5,005. Gold is trading about 0.3% lower, crude oil is seen trading about 4.2% lower, and the U.S.

dollar is seen trading at about 0.7% higher at about 1:00pm Chicago time.Tuesday, there were

1,994 contracts traded, down from 2,902 contracts traded on Monday. Open interest – the

number of contracts outstanding – on Tuesday decreased by 71 contracts to 9,586.

Thailand Lowers Estimates for 2015 Main

Rice Crop Output by 9% Due to Prevailing

Drought Conditions

Jul 01, 2015

The government of Thailand has lowered its estimates for 2015 main rice crop output by about

2.44 million tons or about 9% to around 24.135 million tons from earlier estimate of around

26.576 million tons due to severe drought conditions prevailing in the main rice growing areas of

the Central region, Reuters quoted the latest report by the Office of Agricultural Economics

(OAE).

The estimate follows the government's advise to farmers last week to delay planting their main

crop in the Chao Phraya River Basin due to delayed rains and consequent decline in water levels

in the region's reservoirs.

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In April, the OAE estimated the country's total paddy rice output for 2014-15 (January -

December 2015) at around 32.6 million tons 27.1 million tons from main crop and 5.5 million

tons from secondary crop), down about 11% from around 36.77 million tons (27.09 from main

crop and 9.67 million tons from secondary crop) last year.Meanwhile, the government is still

holding about15.6 million tons of rice in its stockpiles and is planning to auction about 1.39

million tons of rice on July 7.

The government is also considering to sell around 5.89 million tons of deteriorated rice to the

industrial sector from this month, the Director-General of the Commerce Ministry’s Department

of Foreign Trade is quoted as saying.The Commerce Ministry planning to auction around 1.39

million tons of rice on July 7. It sold about 2.94 million tons of rice in the first seven auctions

since it took power, raising about 30.2 billion baht (around $894 million).

USDA estimates Thailand to produce 28.409 million tons of paddy rice (around 18.75 million

tons, milled basis) in MY 2014-15 (January - December 2015), down about 8% from around 31

million tons (around 20.46 million tons, milled basis) in MY 2013-14.

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Reduced Monsoon Rains in July May Impact

India Rice Yields, Say Experts

Jul 01, 2015

July is considered to be most crucial month for rice farmers but weak monsoons in this month

may severely impact India's rice yields especially in rain fed areas, Reuters quoted some experts

as saying.Rains, which have been nearly 28% above normal from the start of the monsoon

season on June 1 have started weakening since the last weekend especially in the main rice

growing areas of central, north-western and southern India and now the surplus has fallen to 16%

over normal, according to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)."If the current dry spell

continues for another week, then there will be an adverse impact on yields," the Head of

Commodities and Currencies at Inditrade Derivatives and Commodities said. "In some areas,

crop will wilt and farmers will be forced to cultivate them again," he added.

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"Poor rainfall in July, with cloudy weather, can increase infestation of pest and diseases," the

Director of an India-based Agri firm was quoted as saying. "Higher temperatures could also

hinder crop growth," he said.Many farmers who breathed easy with the Skymet forecast of a

good monsoon because of a phenomenon called the Indian Ocean Dipole (ICD) are now worried

that weakening rains would bring them heavy losses as they already invested in seeds and

fertilizers.The IMD has been maintaining that the monsoon in India would be 85% below normal

due to the El Nino weather pattern.Planting for the main rice crop started off well with above

average rains but is currently lagging behind last year due to less rains since June 25. According

to data from Agriculture Ministry, the total area planted stood at around at around 2.328 million

hectares, 7% below last year's level of around 2.5 million hectares.

Philippines Agriculture Ministry Promotes

Use of Brown Rice

Jul 01, 2015

The Philippines Department of Agriculture (DA) is encouraging increased use of brown rice as it

has higher nutritional value compared to the polished white rice as well as to complement with

the government's rice sufficiency program, according to local sources.A DA Senior Scientist told

local sources that the DA would sign a Memorandum of Agreement (MoA) with the National

Food Authority (NFA) to start distributing brown rice among the retailers. He noted that the

government would start distributing brown rice in Metro Manila and slowly extend to other

cities.

Under the agreement, the NFA is expected to procure brown rice from local producers and sell it

to local retailers at a lower price. The DA official noted that the NFA could cut down rice

imports eventually. He also encouraged farmers to directly sell their brown rice products to

restaurants, hotels, other food establishments apart from selling it to the NFA.He advised farmer

to increase planting of brown rice varieties, which is rich in vitamins B1, B3, B6, B9, dietary

fiber, antioxidants, protein, manganese, phosphorous, and iron.Separately, the DA Secretary told

local reporters that the government's continued efforts have helped the country to reach rice

sufficiency level of 96% in 2014 from 82% in 2010. He said there is still a need to import rice to

maintain stocks and curb price hikes, but the volume is much lower than that imported under the

previous government.


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