- chronic poverty in rural Ethiopia
Laura Camfield, UEA and Keetie Roelen, IDS
Big drops in poverty rates
However – Disparities between regions Seasonal fluctuations Persistent group of chronically poor and
food insecure
1994/95 2004/05 2009/10
poverty rates 49.5% 38.7% 29.2%
Source: MoFED, 2010
2DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen
category R1 R2 R3
ultra-poor 7 8.6 8.4
poor 49.8 24 17.2
nearly poor 35.6 55.5 41.8
not poor 7.7 12 32.6
Transition analyses show that 13% of households have been poor across all three rounds (2002-9)
3DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen
Ethiopia (rural sites and older cohort only)
3 rounds of quan data: 2002, 2006, 2009 Qual data from 8 sites in 2008, 2009
4DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen
QUAL QUAL QUAN
QUAN
developing classification of an emic children and householdstaxonomy (ultra-poor, poor, nearly poor, not-poor)
Papers: Roelen and Camfield, 2012; Camfield and Roelen, 2012a; Camfield and Roelen,
2012b5DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen
Factor
Total no: of households reporting
factor (n=32)
No: of female headed
households reporting factor
(n=8)
No: of older household
heads reporting
factor (n=6)Climate (e.g. drought, timing of rains, storms)
30 7 6
Family illness 24 6 5High food prices 17 4 5Own illness 17 2 4Death of animals 17 2 4Exclusion from PSNP 16 3 3Disputes (e.g. neighbours, criminal authorities)
16 5 3
Cost of fertiliser and seeds
15 1 5
Lack of labour 13 6 3Bad debt 9 1 2Low prices for produce 7 1 0
6DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen
Causes of poverty Most common combination of
causes (41% of cases) were:
◦ i) climate, typically lack of rainfall◦ ii) family illness◦ iii) lack of labour◦ iv) high food prices
7DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen
• Female household head • Young household head (<35 years)• Disabled household head• Divorced, single or widowed head• More female than male labour within
the household
• Education of household head appeared to have no effect
8DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen
No single theory, but some common elements◦Structure and agency ◦Tactics/ getting by vs. strategies◦Critique of life stages (age norms,
biographical scripts, ‘other’ life courses) Heyman (2009) – the waged life course vs.
generational sequencing in Sonora, Mexico
◦Lives characterised by turning points, fateful or critical moments, vital conjunctures (‘zones of possibility’)
DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen 9
◦Individuals and their social connections (families, peers, etc.)
◦Macro level change and institutions Mayer – transition of former soviet countries,
Elder – great depression, USA◦ Influence of early life; cumulative effects (e.g.
Rutter and children’s resilience) O’Rand, 1996 - stratification over the life course
◦ Timing of events matters (and interventions?)
DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen 10
Subjunctivity (Whyte)◦ what people as subjects are trying to do - what they are
hoping for, how they deal with their life conditions, and how things unfold for them over time (p171)
Social navigation (Vigh)◦ relationship between choices and the social bonds in which
they are embedded in a volatile and interactive environment Relationality (Bledsoe, Lamb, Locke)
◦ inherently relational, made up of networks of ties that they share with other people, places and things (Lamb, 1997:297)
Chance (di Nunzio, Cooper, others...)◦ promises reversibility of trajectories of marginalisation and
exclusion but can be illusory ‘Managing’ (Langevang) or bricolage
DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen 11
Socio-cultural institutions Education ended early due to marriage Conflict with neighbour over landState institutions Healthcare – asset sale, drop out from
school Excluded from PSNPEvents Husband’s health affected by Eritrean war Two years of crop failure
DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen 12
Quantitative analysis flags risk (female household head) and cumulative disadvantage
We also see effects of institutions (social protection, healthcare, attitudes to women’s education and landowning) and historical events (Eritrean war)
And the timing of her husband’s death while her children were still young
She is embedded in relationships, but has few social ‘resources’
Still, she is ‘managing’ and pursuing a hoped for if uncertain future through her children’s education
DSA 2012_Camfield and Roelen 13
