…WINTER PREVIEW 2012-13…. EXTREME OR NOT EXTREME THAT IS THE QUESTION !!!!

…WINTER PREVIEW 2012-13….

EXTREME OR NOT EXTREME

THAT IS THE QUESTION !!!!

…WINTER 2009-10… 2010-11 featured lots of cold and at times

significant cold

WINTER 2011-12 the exact opposite 2009-10 …

and 2010- 11

WHY? NOV 2011 saw development

of 2 BIG “players” 1) huge 500 mb Low or vortex

over N slope Alaska e Siberia

and

2) deep Large POSITIVE NAO… strongest +NAO ever

record !!

More detailHERE

As you can see some of us saw “ warning sign” that things

were developing very differently from what was

anticipate

now sometimes the PV sitting up there in far nw

Canada / N Alaska CAN slide se into central / eastern

Canada but even if that were to happen it would take

several weeks before it would affect the pattern

DEC 2011 dark PURPLE

shows EXTREME negative 500 mb height anomalies

northeast Canada and Greenland

In other words EXTREME +AO and +NAO

Both features at or near record levels

JAN 8, 2012 NOTE the HUGE intense

DARK BLUE & PURLE area over Bering Sea?

That is the feature – severe +EPO -- that caused

ALASKA to have such prolonged severe winter

NOTE super +NAO over Baffin Island in NE Canada

In this sort of Pattern No PATH for cold air to get into

CONUS

FEB 2012 HUGE Vortex over Alaska splits into 2 but with 1 center over western Alaska Pattern over N America could NOT

change…

Movement of central Asia North LINKED up with Ridge over the UK= SCANDINAVIA RIDGE and brings in severe

Europe W Russia

CPC nao chart/ plots Viewed the strong Positive Anomaly as -NAO… which a we can

see is clearly BS

JAN 2011 COMPARE PREVIOUS

MAPS TO JAN 2011 !

Bright Orange/ Red over Arctic Region MEAN -AO

And over Greenland CLASSIC –NAO…

DARK BLUE over Eastern US = Deep trough

EXTREME strong SCAN block & -NAO = cold/SNOWY

pattern for Europe

did you DARK BLUE & PURLE area over Eastern Alaska ?

That is NOT the same thing as Bering Sea

LATE NOV 2009 the SSTA pattern over nw and N central N Atlantic matched TEXTBOOK idealized ssta pattern for strongly –NAO. This was also the

case for NOV 2010 and the winter of 2010-11

SUMMARY what did we Learn?

The development Huge Vortex over N Alaska/ Bering SEA in early NOV was proverbial Babe Ruth Candy Bar in the Punch

Bowl of winter Forecast

Unusual SSTA in N Pacific kept PV over Bering Sea Locked in place… and helped to set up the SPRING and SUMMER 2012

pattern

SSTA configuration over northern half of N Atlantic strongly favored +NAO and Scandinavia Ridge ..which ensured Positive

AO.

Now compare my explanation to

someone’s else ‘EXPLANATION” of what went wrong Last winter

Japan Tsunami Debris wave?? Folks that is just plain ‘ol Bravo Sierra (BS)

you see WHY looking at Last winter is SOOOO Important ?

If you cannot “ see it “ ..if you explanation is some BS theory ..

then how can you get THIS coming winter forecast right ?

…AUTUMN 2012…..

AUTUMN PATTERN 2012

(10/8/12)

Very different pattern developing over N hemisphere

Instead of Huge 50 Low/ vortex over Alaska & Bering sea … there

are strong Positive Height anomalies …

And trough over eastern half of the Conus

14 OCT 2012 (uh oh !!)

Strong deep 500 lows appear to forming in GULF OF ALASKA and over N Slope of Alaska … kind of

similar to Last year!!

BUT NAO is negative AND the SSTA as I showed are VERY

different in OCT 2012…

LOOK how the pattern EVOLVES in the next slide

HEMISPHERIC PATTERN END OF OCT 2012

sure its 15 days out BUT we are not forecasting SPECIFIC track of low or say Hurricane Just the General pattern

AO plots in 2nd half of OCT

AO consistently NEGATIVE because of STRONG large areas of positive 500 MB anomalies AND … and .. The

LACK ..so far of a DEEP massive 500 mb over Arctic region

MAJOR increase in cold air build up over western and central and Northern Canada – somethignwe did NOT see in

OCT and NOV 2011

MOST of the time COLD air outbreaks in OCT and NOV in the Eastern US is a BAD sign for those who want cold/ snowy winters….. WHY?... Because COLD in the east often means Ridge over West N America which means NO snow cover build up No cold air build over western Canada . But Here we see BIG time cold air build up over and EARLY snowfall in western Canada

#1 huge OMEGA BLOCK over Bering Sea / Alaska exact opposite of OCT / NOV 2011…#2 ECMWF has western based –NAO over far n central Canada … GFS has classic Text Book case over GREENLAND. #3 Deep early season Trough over Pac NW/ sw Canada means early snow Build up and major expansion of cold air supply in western Canada

NAO plots in 2nd half of OCT

NAO consistently

PNA plots in 2nd half of OCT

PNA consistently NEGATIVE because of STRONG 500 mb upper LOW over Gulf of Alaska

N HEMISPHERE PATTERNOCT 30

LETS TALK SNOW COVER

SNOW COVER IS SOME WHAT MISUNDERSTOOD

1.Having early season snowfall over Eurasia and far northern Canada FAVORS central & eastern US will see either Normal winter or a colder / snowy

2.But it does not guarantee it

3.Moreover there have plenty of cases of having near Normal snowfall over these areas and MILD / Below Normal snowfall over central and eastern Conus.

RED= Below Normal snowfall

OCT 15… ORANGE ACTUAL SNOWFALL …Blue = Above Normal Snow

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2012/2012GL051000.shtml

SEA ICE

SO FAR SEA ICE BELOW NORMAL.. But again it is early

EL NINO … dying off fast but MOST Winter forecasts have been based on

weak El Nino

JULY forecast Plumes from Euro

ensemble into the Winter

AUG forecast Plumes from Euro ensemble into the

Winter

SEPT forecast Plumes from Euro ensemble into the

Winter

ENSO 3.4 now Below Min threshold for even Weak El

Nino

SOI bounced back to Neutral but -8 to -10

Min threshold for trigger El Nino

Here we can watch the El Nino collapse over 60 days from JUNE 12 – SEPT

12

LETS TAKE ABOUT THE CFS version 2.0

As a general rule over the last 20 years climate models have been pretty bad and next to useless.

But CFSV2.0 is different. WHY?

1. The CFS model in an ensemble of 16 runs AND based on the last 14 days.

2. The MONTHLY Model is based on 10 day time increments.

3. As conditions change so does the CFS Model. Is that a good thing or bad ?

At end of APRIL the CFS for JUNE 2012… showing WET and cool over the midwest and hot over pacific NW.

At end of APRIL the CFS for JULY 2012… showing WET and cool over the midwest and hot over pacific NW.

WHY? The CFS Models runs in the last 10 days of APRIL assumed El Nino for the Summer of 2012

But.. once the CFS saw El Nino breaking down.. The SOI stuck at Neutral… and the severe -PDO pattern the CFS did change BIG TIME.

The CFS Models runs from last 10 days of MAY show EXTREME HEAT and DROUGHT

20 MAY - 29 MAY 2012

The CFS Models runs in the last 10 days of MAY also corrected for JULY 2012… and now showed HEAT and DROUGHT for the Midwest

CFS MODEL for DEC JAN FEB seem to be awfully warm

This run for DEC 2012

based on the end of AUG AND El Nino still thriving

This run for JAN 2013

based on the end of AUG AND El Nino still thriving

This run for FEB 2013

based on the end of AUG AND El Nino still thriving

WEEKLY CFS Models runs.. Which are run EVERY DAY …so one can see the TRENDS …

for the next 4 weeks shows western & central Canada turning VERY cold that moves into the Midwest & NE in week 3 .. And more cold air over Western Canada in week 4

WEEKLY 500 MB jet Stream map week 3-4

NOTICE very strong Positive Height anomalies over Alaska/ Bering Sea AND over Greenland. This would… IF the model is correct… set up cold/ cool first half of NOV over Midwest and Northeast

The CFS Monthly forecast for NOV temps showed the BIG changes since 9 OCT to 17 OCT

The CFS Monthly forecast for NOV RAINFALL shows Midwest wet OCT 9 but now looks DRY

The CFS Models runs from OCT 6 to OCT 20..

Shows cold air over Canada in NOV and a VERY WARM WINTER Jan Feb March of 2013 !!!

But with all the Big changes happening over last 2-3 weeks new runs of CFS Likely to be Much colder

WHAT ABOUT ANALOG YEARS

For those that do NOT know what we mean by ANALOG years in the weather biz… the term refers to the method of looking at SEVERAL key parameters in the atmospheric then searching past (climate) for similar conditions. The idea here is to give the forecast clues or TRENDS about what the upcoming season will look like.

SOMETIMES the analog works.. MOSTLY for stable patterns. For example the Winters of 2009-10 and 2010-11. But there are 2 BIG caveats here.

1. You have to Key or focus on the correct parameters. For example to key in on El Nino winters when you have say for example La Nina means you analog season will be worthless

2. ANALOG forecasting only works IF.. and ONLY IF… conditions are STABLE

3. Look at this Past SUMMER… It was ASSUMED by most seasonal forecasters that the El Nino would Kick in at SOME point and turn the pattern wetter and cooler over the Midwest and Plains. But as we know now El Nino pattern never developed

WHAT ABOUT ANALOG YEARS

As of 15 OCT 2012… EVERYTHING hemispherically is in a state of FLUX.

•El Nino GONE

•Negative PDO which was Historically EXTREME DEC 2011 to SEPT 2012.. is almost gone

•prolonged sustained +AO at times near record Positive Values .. GONE

•Re-emergence of Strong positive 500 MB anomalies across Arctic & high latitude Since Mid Sept… increasing each week

•Strong -NAO signatures

•There is ONE parameter that has NOT changed over the past 2-3 months……

WHAT ABOUT ANALOG YEARS

the QBO quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) is high level wind at the very top of the atmosphere ( 30 mb) that exists over the Equator that oscillates from East (negative QBO) to West ( Positive QBO) . A full cycle can take anywhere from 18 to 30 months . The strongest Positive values are usually around +15.00 or so while the strongest Negative values will exceed -25.00 or so. The QBO winds work there way

down to into the Lower levels and affect weather patterns.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quasi-biennial_oscillation

LINK FOR ACTUAL QBO DATA http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

WHAT ABOUT ANALOG YEARS

THE QBO

JAN 2012 -16.07 FEB 2012 -15.25MARCH 2012 -16.74APRIL 2012… -17.62MAY 2012… -22.04JUNE 2012…. -25.89JULY 2012… -27.82AUG 2012… -27.93 SEPT 2012… -26.60 QBO is beginning to weaken

OCT 2012 ?? Data comes out 11/5/12

NOV 2012 ??? Data comes out 12/5/12

WHAT ABOUT ANALOG YEARS

THE QBO strongly POSITIVE QBO values correlate to Non Blocking weather patterns in the Jet stream

And strongly Negative QBO values in the cold season Months = +AO and +NAO patterns

BUT… QBO values that are “weak” (-10 to +10)strongly favor Blocking patterns over N Hemisphere in the cold season months ( NDJFM)

So… ASSUMING the OCT QBO values ( comes out 11/5/12) will be “ rising “ (moving to zero) and that trend continues for NOV values ( comes out 12/5/12) … what will the QBO be like in DJFM??

WHAT ABOUT ANALOG YEARS

THE QBO HIGH Probability that OCT values will be -20 to -25 and NOV values between -15 to -20.. But again this is FORECAST/ assumption

This IMPLIES that QBO will be moving towards ZERO during JAN …FEB MARCH 2013 .

SOOOOOO.. Lets look at ALL the QBO autumns with strongly - QBO values that rose to -10 or high (towards 0).

2003-04 1996-97 1989-90 1984-85 1979-80 1970-71

but 1997-98 was strong EL NINO winter and we know that is NIT going to happen THIS coming winter so lets drop it

QBO ANALOG WINTERS2003-04 1989-90 1984-85 1979-80 1970-71

SUMMARY OF MY EARLY IDEAS for WINTER 2012-13ANY and ALL Winter forecast issued by ANYONE or any private weather company before OCT 1 .. Now is worthless Bravo Sierra.

•NOV cold in western Canada a good thing

•Lack of Sea seems to be helping high latitude Blocking

•So far this Autumn Upper air patterns looking NOTHING like

•-PDO weakening fast .. Total collapse OR staying weak?

•DEC warmest of the 3 months But western third of US DEC will be coldest and snowiest of the DJF

•Strong signals JAN FEB Much colder than last winter and far MORE active for everyone Noreaster Potential COULD be High

STARTING NOV 1… wxrisk.com Will be using the Prof Zielinksi WINTER STORM INDEX SCALE

this is a proven well research INDEX that can be used all around the country. I will be posting more about it on the web site soon

And S.E.C.S. --(SEX) Significant East Cost Snowstorm newsletter a subscription service… with 2 levels of coverage BASIC and ADVANCED