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DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRIES Wine Grape Crush Survey Murray Darling / Swan Hill 2011
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Page 1: Wine Grape Crush Survey, Murray Darling - Swan Hill … Grape Crush Survey Murray Darling...Wine Grape Crush Survey Murray Darling / Swan Hill ... 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRIES

Wine Grape Crush Survey

Murray Darling / Swan Hill

2011

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ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The information contained in this survey was collected, analysed and published by Department of Primary Industries - Mildura, on behalf of the Murray Valley Wine Grape Industry Advisory Committee, comprising winery and grower representatives from the Murray Darling and Swan Hill regions. The publication of this survey is made possible through the support of the wineries that processed fruit from Murray Darling and/or Swan Hill vineyards in 2011. Particular thanks to Jenny Gordon, DPI Mildura for her assistance in completion of this survey.

REPORT PREPARATION

Kristen Pitt Department of Primary Industries PO Box 905, Mildura Victoria 3502 Cnr Koorlong Avenue and Eleventh Street, Irymple. Tel.: (03) 5051 4500 Email: Kristen,[email protected]

Additional copies of this report are available from: www.murrayvalleywinegrapes.com.au or by contacting the Department of Primary Industries - Mildura.

COPYRIGHT

This publication is copyright. Apart from fair dealing for the purpose of private study, research, criticism, or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without the written permission of Department of Primary Industries, Victoria. © State of Victoria, Department of Primary Industries, 2011

DISCLAIMER

This publication may be of assistance to you, but the State of Victoria, its employees and members of the Murray Valley Wine Grape Industry Advisory Committee do not guarantee that the publication is written without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication.

If you would like to receive this information/publication in an accessible format (such as large print or audio) please call the Customer Service Centre on: 136 186, TTY: 1800 122 969, or email [email protected]

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INTRODUCTION Wine grape crush surveys are carried out in the Murray Darling and Swan Hill regions annually to provide early and accurate estimates of the tonnes and prices of grapes purchased and grown by wineries. These surveys also provide information on the estimated tonnes to be purchased and grown over each of the subsequent two years, together with an assessment of the tonnes that wine makers would prefer to receive.

The data is provided voluntarily by wineries on the understanding and guarantee that data for individual wineries will not be released. Only aggregated data is reported.

DATA REQUESTED FROM WINERIES Wineries are asked to provide the following information by variety and region:

Tonnes Purchased

The tonnages purchased from independent grape growers.

Tonnes Own Grown

The tonnages the winery itself has grown.

Tonnes Preferred

The tonnages the wineries would have preferred to crush in the current vintage.

Committed Intake – Own Grapes, Committed Intake – Purchased Grapes, Total Required Intake for the next 2 years

The tonnages wineries are committed to crush for the next 2 years, and they would prefer to crush assuming no limitations on equipment, supplies etc.

Purchase Prices

The highest and lowest price paid for each variety and the total purchase value (post receival price, not including freight or end use bonuses) for each variety purchased.

Tonnes crushed for concentrate and distillate – 2011 vintage only

Due to the 2010-11 seasonal conditions, wineries were also asked to report on tonnes of grapes crushed for concentrate and distillate.

DATA QUALITY Responses were not received from all wineries sent survey forms and some wineries may not have been approached. The absolute tonnages should, therefore, be treated with care. A proportion of wineries did not supply all the data requested. This was particularly true of price data and future estimates.

The data has been checked exhaustively to eliminate transcription and analysis errors and to reduce, where possible, errors in data supplied by wineries. The data on the current vintage can be considered as accurate as possible.

The projections are a snapshot of the views of wine makers or company executives at the time of the survey. They are subject to variation with market fluctuations and changes in production over subsequent years. The projections are imperfect and will almost certainly vary with time.

DATA TREATMENT All data provided by the wineries has been aggregated. Under an agreement with the wineries covering the provision of data, disaggregation is not permitted. It is not possible to provide data from individual wineries.

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

Section 1 Summary Data & Yearly Trends ...........................................................................................................................................................5

Total tonnes crushed and total crop value............................................................................................................................................6

Actual and preferred tonnages since 2006...........................................................................................................................................7

Historical trends in production ..............................................................................................................................................................8

Historical trends in estimated value of purchased fruit compared to total crush ..................................................................................9

Actual and preferred tonnages by variety...........................................................................................................................................10

Percentage of total crush by variety ...................................................................................................................................................11

Section 2 Price & Tonnage Data..........................................................................................................................................................................12

Notes on information provided in Section 2........................................................................................................................................13

Intake and price summary data by variety for red grapes ..................................................................................................................14

Intake and price summary data by variety for white grapes ...............................................................................................................15

Intake and price summary data by variety for red grapes: Murray Darling & Swan Hill based wineries only ....................................16

Intake and price summary data by variety for white grapes: Murray Darling & Swan Hill based wineries only .................................17

Section 3 Estimates of Expected & Preferred Intakes ......................................................................................................................................18

Notes on information provided in Section 3........................................................................................................................................19

Section 4 Trend Graphs for Selected Varieties .................................................................................................................................................25

Notes on information provided in Section 4........................................................................................................................................26

List of Wineries Returning Survey Forms................................................................................................................................................................39

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 5 -

Summary Data and Yearly Trends

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 6 -

TOTAL TONNES CRUSHED AND TOTAL CROP VALUE – Wine only

Total winery grown

Total purchased Total crushed (supply)

Total preferred (demand)

Tonnes from other growers as % of total

% of demand supplied

Estimated value of purchased grapes

Estimated value of total crush

Red 16,881 71,261 88,142 128,574 81% 69% $21,788,479 $26,877,010

White 37,051 131,205 168,256 189,669 78% 89% $36,920,826 $46,764,057

Total 53,932 202,466 256,398 318,243 79% 81% $58,709,305 $73,641,067

TOTAL TONNES CRUSHED AND TOTAL CROP VALUE – Wine and Concentrate

Total winery grown

Total purchased Total crushed (supply)

Total preferred (demand)

Tonnes from other growers as % of total

% of demand supplied

Estimated value of purchased grapes

Estimated value of total crush

Red 18,710 84,442 103,152 134,674 82% 77% $24,330,419 $29,418,950

White 39,441 138,213 177,654 190,609 78% 93% $38,445,317 $48,288,548

Total 58,151 222,655 280,806 325,283 79% 86% $62,775,736 $77,707,498

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 7 -

ACTUAL AND PREFERRED TONNAGES SINCE 2006

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Crushed

Preferred

Crushed 415,937 355,389 365,211 375,323 328,147 256,398 280,806

Preferred 345,135 404,498 341,353 329,950 314,610 318,243 325,283

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 - Wine only2011 - Wine +

Concentrate

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 8 -

HISTORICAL TRENDS IN PRODUCTION

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 9 -

HISTORICAL TRENDS IN ESTIMATED VALUE OF PURCHASED FRUIT COMPARED TO TOTAL CRUSH

$0

$50,000,000

$100,000,000

$150,000,000

$200,000,000

$250,000,000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Harvest Year

Es

tim

ate

d V

alu

e

Purchased - wine only ($)

Crushed - wine only ($)

Purchased - wine + concentrate ($)

Crushed - wine + concentrate ($)

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 10 -

ACTUAL AND PREFERRED TONNAGES BY VARIETY– Wine only Red Varieties

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

Shiraz Cabernet

Sauvignon

Merlot Petit Verdot Pinot Noir Ruby Cabernet

Variety

To

nn

es

Crushed

Preferred

White Varieties

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000

100,000

Chardonnay Sauvignon

Blanc

Muscat

Gordo

Blanco

Colombard Semillon Pinot Gris Other White Sultana Canada

Muscat

Muscat a

Petit Grains

Blanc

Variety

To

nn

es

Crushed

Preferred

Note: Varieties with both crushed and preferred less than 2000 tonnes are not represented in these graphs.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 11 -

PRECENTAGE OF TOTAL CRUSH BY VARIETY– Wine only

Red Varieties

Pinot Noir

3% Petit Verdot

1%

Merlot

28%

Ruby Cabernet

2%

Shiraz

36% Cabernet Sauvignon

30%

Cabernet Sauvignon

Merlot

Petit Verdot

Pinot Noir

Ruby Cabernet

Shiraz

White Varieties

Viognier

1%

Canada Muscat

1%

Verdelho

1%

Sultana

1%Semillon

7%Sauvignon Blanc

12%

Riesling

1%

Other White

1%

Pinot Gris

4%

Muscat Gordo Blanco

10%

Chardonnay

53%

Colombard

7%

Muscat a Petit Grains Blanc

1%

Canada Muscat

Chardonnay

Colombard

Muscat a Petit Grains Blanc

Muscat Gordo Blanco

Other White

Pinot Gris

Riesling

Sauvignon Blanc

Semillon

Sultana

Verdelho

Viognier

Note: Varieties with both crushed and preferred less than 1000 tonnes are not represented in these graphs.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 12 -

Price and Tonnage Data

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 13 -

NOTES ON INFORMATION PROVIDED IN SECTION 2

Total crush

The total tonnes of grapes crushed from the Murray Darling / Swan Hill regions whether processed in that region, another region in Victoria or interstate. All wineries in Australia who source fruit from Murray Darling / Swan Hill vineyards are included in the survey collection process. Reported fruit is separated into fruit produced from the winery’s own vineyards (“own grown”) and from independent grower owned vineyards (“purchased”).

Tonnes Purchased as % of Total

This statistic is calculated by dividing the tonnes purchased from independent growers (total other growers) by the total tonnes crushed. This figure is then expressed as a percentage. It indicates the proportion of grapes purchased from independent growers.

Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price)

Calculated by dividing the total purchase value (post receival price, not including freight or end use bonuses) for a variety (summed across all wineries) by the total tonnes of the same variety purchased from other growers.

Winery grown grapes are not included in the calculation of the Calculated Average Purchase Value.

The Calculated Average Purchase Value in this report is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.

Lowest and Highest Prices

Wineries are asked to report the highest and lowest prices paid for any parcel of fruit of a particular variety, of any size. The highest of all highest prices and the lowest of all lowest prices are reported – provided that at least three wineries have provided this information for any particular variety.

The highest or lowest price may be for a very small parcel of fruit - and/or reflect an unusual pricing arrangement - eg payment by the hectare rather than per tonne, “spot market” sales of excess fruit etc.

Total value of purchased grapes

Calculated as the Calculated Average Purchase Value multiplied by the total tonnes purchased.

Estimated Total Value of All Grapes

Calculated as the Calculated Average Purchase Value of purchased fruit multiplied by the total tonnes crushed, for each variety.

If there is a variety where there are no purchases, then the average purchase value across all other varieties of the same colour in the same region is used to determine an estimated value for the own grown grapes. Discrepancies will appear in the estimated total value of all grapes and the estimated total value of purchased grapes if the average price is calculated.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 14 -

INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR RED GRAPES – Wine only PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY

Variety Purchased

(t)

Lowest price ($/t)

Highest price ($/t)

Total value purchased grapes ($)

Tonnes purchased as a % of

total

Calculated average purchase

value ($/t)

Winery grown fruit (t)

Total crushed

(t)

Estimated total value

ALL grapes ($)

Cabernet Sauvignon 22,737 $150 $600 $7,043,647 86% $310 3,578 26,315 $8,152,137

Grenache 559 $167,808 100% $300 0 559 $167,808

Malbec 10 $4,284 100% $450 0 10 $4,284

Merlot 18,467 $150 $744 $5,677,729 78% $307 5,296 23,762 $7,305,943 Muscat a Petit Grains Rouge / Rose 308 $207,868 100% $675 0 308 $207,868

Nebbiolo 0 35 35 $10,587

Other Red 120 $220 $400 $38,330 80% $321 30 150 $47,943

Petit Verdot 1,010 $175 $300 $272,910 100% $270 0 1,010 $272,910

Pinot Noir 2,670 $275 $400 $899,249 93% $337 215 2,885 $971,646

Ruby Cabernet 22 $6,087 2% $280 1,304 1,325 $371,129

Sangiovese 464 $250 $450 $144,699 67% $312 234 698 $217,575

Shiraz 24,824 $150 $450 $7,292,172 80% $294 6,175 30,998 $9,106,029

Tempranillo 71 $33,696 82% $474 16 87 $41,150

Total Red winegrapes 71,261 $21,788,479 81% 16,881 88,142 $26,877,010 ** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 15 -

INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR WHITE GRAPES – Wine only PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY

Variety Purchased

(t)

Lowest price ($/t)

Highest price ($/t)

Total value purchased grapes ($)

Tonnes purchased as a % of

total

Calculated average purchase

value ($/t)

Winery grown fruit (t)

Total crushed

(t)

Estimated total value

ALL grapes ($)

Canada Muscat 2,296 $1,259,462 100% $549 0 2,296 $1,259,462

Chardonnay 67,032 $135 $714 $16,825,612 76% $251 20,922 87,955 $22,077,201

Chenin Blanc 116 $16,447 100% $141 0 116 $16,447

Colombard 10,383 $135 $250 $2,006,932 83% $193 2,063 12,446 $2,405,712

Crouchen 182 $36,420 34% $200 349 531 $106,166 Muscat a Petit Grains Blanc 1,816 $350 $809 $825,047 100% $454 0 1,816 $825,047

Muscat Gordo Blanco 15,018 $100 $420 $5,155,826 93% $343 1,066 16,084 $5,521,860

Other White 2,367 $175 $950 $1,122,479 100% $474 0 2,367 $1,122,479

Pinot Gris 5,065 $300 $685 $2,179,025 71% $430 2,064 7,129 $3,067,108

Riesling 710 $135 $600 $165,398 47% $233 815 1,526 $355,171

Sauvignon Blanc 15,692 $135 $490 $4,819,577 77% $307 4,739 20,430 $6,274,974

Semillon 7,323 $135 $450 $1,813,114 64% $248 4,161 11,485 $2,843,408

Sultana 1,312 $296,715 100% $226 0 1,312 $296,715

Verdelho 826 $135 $325 $198,136 59% $240 569 1,394 $334,641

Viognier 1,066 $135 $251 $200,636 78% $188 303 1,369 $257,667

Total White winegrapes 131,205 $36,920,826 78% 37,051 168,256 $46,764,057 Grand Total All winegrapes 202,466 $58,709,305 79% 53,932 256,398 $73,641,067

** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 16 -

INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR RED GRAPES: MURRAY DARLING & SWAN HILL BASED WINERIES ONLY – Wine only PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY

Variety Purchased

(t)

Lowest price ($/t)

Highest price ($/t)

Total value purchased grapes ($)

Tonnes purchased as a % of

total

Calculated average purchase

value ($/t)

Winery grown fruit (t)

Total crushed

(t)

Estimated total value

ALL grapes ($)

Cabernet Sauvignon 18,973 $150 $600 $5,853,109 85% $309 3,326 22,299 $6,879,230

Grenache 559 $167,808 100% $300 0 559 $167,808

Merlot 11,498 $150 $600 $3,201,349 68% $278 5,296 16,793 $4,675,854 Muscat a Petit Grains Rouge / Rose 308 $207,868 100% $675 0 308 $207,868

Nebbiolo 0 35 35 $10,274

Other Red 120 $220 $400 $38,330 80% $321 30 150 $47,943

Petit Verdot 776 $175 $300 $206,904 100% $267 0 776 $206,904

Pinot Noir 1,883 $300 $400 $639,708 90% $340 215 2,098 $712,730

Ruby Cabernet 0 1,304 1,304 $386,909

Sangiovese 430 $129,219 65% $301 234 663 $199,509

Shiraz 20,505 $150 $450 $5,879,785 81% $287 4,854 25,359 $7,271,564

Tempranillo 71 $33,696 82% $474 16 87 $41,150

Total Red winegrapes 55,122 $16,357,777 78% 15,308 70,430 $20,807,742

** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 17 -

INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR WHITE GRAPES: MURRAY DARLING & SWAN HILL BASED WINERIES ONLY – Wine only

PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY

Variety Purchased

(t)

Lowest price ($/t)

Highest price ($/t)

Total value purchased grapes ($)

Tonnes purchased as a % of

total

Calculated average purchase

value ($/t)

Winery grown fruit (t)

Total crushed

(t)

Estimated total value

ALL grapes ($)

Canada Muscat 404 $141,435 100% $350 0 404 $141,435

Chardonnay 59,221 $135 $500 $14,437,335 74% $244 20,528 79,750 $19,441,868

Chenin Blanc 116 $16,447 100% $141 0 116 $16,447

Colombard 8,829 $135 $250 $1,676,155 81% $190 2,063 10,892 $2,067,850

Crouchen 0 349 349 $92,451 Muscat a Petit Grains Blanc 1,297 $350 $450 $561,534 100% $433 0 1,297 $561,534

Muscat Gordo Blanco 14,014 $100 $400 $4,773,970 93% $341 1,066 15,080 $5,137,172

Other White 649 $175 $500 $230,444 100% $355 0 649 $230,444

Pinot Gris 3,447 $340 $500 $1,262,257 63% $366 2,064 5,511 $2,018,122

Riesling 710 $135 $600 $165,398 47% $233 815 1,526 $355,171

Sauvignon Blanc 12,937 $135 $430 $3,916,754 73% $303 4,739 17,675 $5,351,402

Semillon 6,558 $135 $450 $1,638,643 61% $250 4,161 10,720 $2,678,402

Sultana 1,312 $296,715 100% $226 0 1,312 $296,715

Verdelho 746 $135 $250 $172,279 57% $231 569 1,315 $303,629

Viognier 1,066 $135 $251 $200,636 78% $188 303 1,369 $257,667

Total White winegrapes 111,306 $29,490,000 75% 36,657 147,964 $38,950,311 Grand Total All winegrapes 166,428 $45,847,777 76% 51,966 218,394 $59,758,054

** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 18 -

Estimates of Expected and Preferred Intakes

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 19 -

NOTES ON INFORMATION PROVIDED IN SECTION 3 ESTIMATES OF EXPECTED AND PREFERRED INTAKES FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS

Committed intake – own grapes

The estimated tonnage of grapes sourced from winery owned or leased vineyards. This includes grapes owned by subsidiary or affiliated companies.

This figure takes into account intended new plantings that will come into bearing or intended removals during the projection period.

Committed intake – contracted purchases

Grapes wineries are committed to purchase in the projected year. Any arrangements that they consider to be binding are included. This may be written contracts or verbal agreements.

Only existing arrangements are reported. Planned or possible future contracts or renewals are not included.

Total required intake – demand

The total requirement for grapes to meet projected sales projections. This does not include planned purchases of bulk wine.

The % required/committed intake shows the percentage of the wineries’ requirement that is already committed for a given year. Eg a figure of 83% indicates that wineries already have contracts (or own grown fruit) to supply 83% of their demand for that year.

Note:

• Not all wineries provide estimates of future intakes - particularly for the later projected years. Therefore projections for later years tend to underreport actual demand. The projections of future intake should be interpreted and used cautiously. It should be noted that there is considerable variation from one survey to the next in demand projections for the same future projected year, as marketing indications change. The projections should only be interpreted as general indications of current levels of confidence, and trends in varietal preferences.

Wine grapes sought on the open market (possible spot market requirement)

This figure is inferred from the difference between committed intake (own grown & purchased) and total required intake.

Projected supply

This figure has been provided from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).

Note:

• Projections regarding supply/demand should be regarded as a guide only. Growers should always conduct thorough research before committing to vine removals and planting. Consideration of new plantings should include whether secure markets will be available for the fruit when it comes into production. Increasingly, supply/demand is influenced by factors outside the region, i.e. over or under supply in other regions in Australia and elsewhere in the world, so regional figures must be considered in that context.

Wine grapes available on the open market

This figure is inferred from the difference between supply and committed intake (own grown & purchased).

Surplus or shortfall of grapes on the open market

The difference between wine grapes sought on the open market and wine grapes available on the open market. However, when both projected supply and committed intake is greater than total required intake (demand), then the surplus/shortfall is recorded as zero. A negative number indicates a shortfall and a positive number indicates surplus.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 20 -

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total committed

intake

Total required

intake (Demand)

% required intake that

is committed

Winegrapes sought on the open market

(Possible spot market requirement)

Projected Supply

Winegrapes available on

the open market

Surplus or shortfall of

grapes on the open market

Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of demand

Red wine grapes

2012 27,484 100,981 128,465 133,801 96% 5,335 144,572 16,107 10,771 8%

2013 27,591 86,038 113,629 128,421 88% 14,793 145,817 32,188 17,396 14%

White wine grapes

2012 44,852 146,604 191,455 177,507 108% -13,949 216,387 24,932 24,932 14%

2013 46,121 125,688 171,809 169,801 101% -2,008 217,783 45,974 0* 0%

All wine grapes

2012 72,336 247,585 319,921 311,307 103% -8,614 360,960 41,039 0* 0%

2013 73,712 211,726 285,438 298,222 96% 12,785 363,601 78,163 0* 0%

Red Wine Grapes

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2012 2013

Year

Tonnes

White Wine Grapes

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2012 2013

Year

All Wine Grapes

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

2012 2013

Year

Tonnes

Total committed intake

Total required intake

(Demand)

Projected Supply

*Figure intentionally reported as zero – please read the explanation given on page 19

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 21 -

SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS – MAJOR VARIETIES

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total committed

intake

Total required

intake (Demand)

% required intake that

is committed

Winegrapes sought on the open market

(Possible spot market requirement)

Projected Supply

Winegrapes available on

the open market

Surplus or shortfall of

grapes on the open market

Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of

demand

Cabernet Sauvignon

2012 7,778 30,286 38,064 40,881 93% 2,817 38,877 813 -2,004 -5%

2013 7,928 25,809 33,738 38,090 89% 4,352 38,923 5,185 833 2%

Chardonnay

2012 23,772 66,799 90,572 84,256 107% -6,316 100,636 10,064 0* 0%

2013 23,656 55,092 78,748 80,399 98% 1,651 100,782 22,034 20,383 25%

Colombard

2012 3,188 8,238 11,426 12,046 95% 620 20,091 8,665 8,045 67%

2013 3,420 6,689 10,109 11,077 91% 968 20,091 9,982 9,014 81%

Cabernet Sauvignon

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2012 2013

Year

Tonnes

Chardonnay

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2012 2013

Year

Colombard

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2012 2013

Year

Total committed intake

Total required intake

(Demand)

Projected Supply

*Figure intentionally reported as zero – please read the explanation given on page 19

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 22 -

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total committed

intake

Total required

intake (Demand)

% required intake that

is committed

Winegrapes sought on the open market

(Possible spot market requirement)

Projected Supply

Winegrapes available on

the open market

Surplus or shortfall of

grapes on the open market

Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of

demand

Merlot

2012 7,307 21,736 29,043 34,396 84% 5,354 30,659 1,616 -3,737 -11%

2013 6,901 17,819 24,721 33,997 73% 9,277 30,659 5,938 -3,338 -10%

Muscat Gordo Blanco

2012 1,508 20,577 22,086 25,162 88% 3,077 * Individual data based on Muscat Gordo Blanco no longer available from

2013 1,624 18,465 20,089 22,355 90% 2,265 ABARES

Petit Verdot

2012 406 1,462 1,868 2,261 83% 393 2,293 425 32 1%

2013 406 1,462 1,868 2,261 83% 393 1,994 126 -267 -12%

Merlot

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2012 2013

Year

Tonnes

Muscat Gordo Blanco

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2012 2013

Year

Tonnes

Petit Verdo

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

2012 2013

Year

Tonnes

Total committed intake

Total required intake

(Demand)

Projected Supply

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 23 -

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total committed

intake

Total required

intake (Demand)

% required intake that

is committed

Winegrapes sought on the open market

(Possible spot market requirement)

Projected Supply

Winegrapes available on

the open market

Surplus or shortfall of

grapes on the open market

Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of

demand

Pinot Gris/Grigio

2012 2,708 16,909 19,617 12,549 156% -7,068 17,158 -2,459 0* 0%

2013 2,940 19,651 22,591 12,516 181% -10,075 17,158 -5,433 0* 0%

Riesling

2012 869 595 1,464 1,251 117% -213 2,423 959 959 77%

2013 754 467 1,221 1,247 98% 27 2,423 1,202 1,176 94%

Sauvignon Blanc

2012 6,111 15,939 22,050 19,071 116% -2,978 18,758 -3,292 -3,292 -17%

2013 6,400 12,093 18,493 18,808 98% 315 18,953 460 145 1%

Pinot Gris

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2012 2013

Year

Tonnes

Riesling

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2012 2013

Year

Tonnes

Sauvignon Blanc

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2012 2013

Year

Tonnes

Total committed intake

Total required intake

(Demand)

Projected Supply

*Figure intentionally reported as zero – please read the explanation given on page 19

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 24 -

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total committed

intake

Total required intake

(Demand)

% required intake that is committed

Winegrapes sought on the open market

(Possible spot market

requirement)

Projected Supply

Winegrapes available on the

open market

Surplus or shortfall of

grapes on the open market

Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of

demand

Semillon

2012 5,243 7,380 12,623 11,644 108% -980 10,813 -1,810 -831 -7%

2013 5,649 6,761 12,410 12,242 101% -168 11,107 -1,303 -1,303 -11%

Shiraz

2012 7,957 40,843 48,800 44,833 109% -3,967 59,832 11,032 11,032 25%

2013 7,957 34,546 42,503 42,780 99% 277 60,328 17,825 17,548 41%

Sultana

2012 0 1,138 1,138 1,243 92% 104 * Individual data based on Sultana no longer available from ABARES

2013 0 1,170 1,170 1,158 101% -12

Semillon

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2012 2013

Year

Tonnes

Shiraz

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2012 2013

Year

Sultana

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2012 2013

Year

Total committed intake

Total required intake

(Demand)

Projected Supply

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 25 -

Trend Graphs for Selected Varieties

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 26 -

NOTES ON TREND GRAPHS PROVIDED IN SECTION 4

The following graphs show the historical trends in tonnages for the 3 years preceding the current vintage where data exists and for the next 2 years where projected data is available.

Possible spot market requirement (wine grapes sought on the open market)

This figure is inferred from the difference between committed intake (own grown & purchased) and total required intake.

Where data exists, graphs showing the historical trend in weighted average price for 5 years preceding the current vintage are also included. These graphs represent the Calculated Average Purchase Value per Tonne (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price) for all wine grapes purchased from the Murray Darling / Swan Hill regions, not only those purchased by Sunraysia wineries. Graphs have been provided for major varieties in the 2011 vintage. It is important to note that wineries were asked to only provide committed purchase figures on their existing arrangements. Planned or possible future contracts or renewals have not been taken into account in this figure. The projected spot market requirement may therefore change over time as contracts are renewed or new contracts signed.

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 27 -

Cabernet Sauvignon

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Cabernet Sauvignon

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Cabernet Sauvignon

$362$399

$637

$412

$313 $310

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Va

lue

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 28 -

Chardonnay

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Chardonnay

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Chardonnay

$382 $396

$521

$293

$224$251

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Va

lue

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 29 -

Colombard

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Colombard

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Colombard

$301 $297

$423

$283

$227$193

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Va

lue

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 30 -

Merlot

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Merlot

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Merlot

$385 $400

$598

$381

$301 $307

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Va

lue

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 31 -

Muscat Gordo Blanco

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Muscat Gordo Blanco

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Muscat Gordo Blanco

$350$374

$456

$366

$294

$343

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Valu

e

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 32 -

Petit Verdot

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Petit Verdot

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Pertit Verdo

$321 $321

$619

$392

$295$270

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Valu

e

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 33 -

Pinot Gris/Grigio

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Pinot Gris/Grigio

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Value – Pinot Gris/Grigio

$703 $694 $700

$611$549

$430

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Va

lue

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 34 -

Riesling

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Riesling

-500

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Riesling

$451$506 $505

$381

$300

$233

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Va

lue

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 35 -

Sauvignon Blanc

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Sauvignon Blanc

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Sauvignon Blanc

$489$516 $523

$456

$355$307

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Valu

e

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 36 -

Semillon

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Semillon

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Semillon

$378 $365

$472

$309

$249 $248

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

$450

$500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Harvest Year

Va

lue

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 37 -

Shiraz

Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Shiraz

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Shiraz

$399 $424

$642

$416

$310 $294

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Harvest Year

Valu

e

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 38 -

Sultana Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Sultana

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Harvest Year

To

nn

es

Winery grown grapes

Contract purchases

Total crushed

Committed winery

grown

Committed contract

purchases

Required intake

(demand)

Possible spot market

requirement

Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Sultana

$263$241

$349

$272

$217 $226

$0

$50

$100

$150

$200

$250

$300

$350

$400

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Valu

e

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 39 -

List of Wineries Returning Survey Forms

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Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 40 -

THANK YOU TO THE FOLLOWING WINERIES WHO RESPONDED TO THE 2011 SURVEY Accolade Wines Kingston Estate Wines The Wine Group

Angoves McPhersons Wines The Yalumba Wine Company

Australian Vintage Oak Valley Estate Boutique Winery Treasury Wine Estates

Austwine Viticulture Orlando Wines Vintage Traders

Casella Wines Peter Lehmann Wines Warburn Estate

De Bortoli Wines Pettavel Winery and Resturant Wooden Eye Estate

Deakin Estate Qualia Wine Services Zilzie Wines

Dorrien Estate Winery Red Cliffs Wines