DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRIES Wine Grape Crush Survey Murray Darling / Swan Hill 2011
DEPARTMENT OF PRIMARY INDUSTRIES
Wine Grape Crush Survey
Murray Darling / Swan Hill
2011
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
The information contained in this survey was collected, analysed and published by Department of Primary Industries - Mildura, on behalf of the Murray Valley Wine Grape Industry Advisory Committee, comprising winery and grower representatives from the Murray Darling and Swan Hill regions. The publication of this survey is made possible through the support of the wineries that processed fruit from Murray Darling and/or Swan Hill vineyards in 2011. Particular thanks to Jenny Gordon, DPI Mildura for her assistance in completion of this survey.
REPORT PREPARATION
Kristen Pitt Department of Primary Industries PO Box 905, Mildura Victoria 3502 Cnr Koorlong Avenue and Eleventh Street, Irymple. Tel.: (03) 5051 4500 Email: Kristen,[email protected]
Additional copies of this report are available from: www.murrayvalleywinegrapes.com.au or by contacting the Department of Primary Industries - Mildura.
COPYRIGHT
This publication is copyright. Apart from fair dealing for the purpose of private study, research, criticism, or review, as permitted under the Copyright Act 1968, no part may be reproduced by any process without the written permission of Department of Primary Industries, Victoria. © State of Victoria, Department of Primary Industries, 2011
DISCLAIMER
This publication may be of assistance to you, but the State of Victoria, its employees and members of the Murray Valley Wine Grape Industry Advisory Committee do not guarantee that the publication is written without flaw of any kind or is wholly appropriate for your particular purposes and therefore disclaims all liability for error, loss or other consequence which may arise from you relying on any information in this publication.
If you would like to receive this information/publication in an accessible format (such as large print or audio) please call the Customer Service Centre on: 136 186, TTY: 1800 122 969, or email [email protected]
INTRODUCTION Wine grape crush surveys are carried out in the Murray Darling and Swan Hill regions annually to provide early and accurate estimates of the tonnes and prices of grapes purchased and grown by wineries. These surveys also provide information on the estimated tonnes to be purchased and grown over each of the subsequent two years, together with an assessment of the tonnes that wine makers would prefer to receive.
The data is provided voluntarily by wineries on the understanding and guarantee that data for individual wineries will not be released. Only aggregated data is reported.
DATA REQUESTED FROM WINERIES Wineries are asked to provide the following information by variety and region:
Tonnes Purchased
The tonnages purchased from independent grape growers.
Tonnes Own Grown
The tonnages the winery itself has grown.
Tonnes Preferred
The tonnages the wineries would have preferred to crush in the current vintage.
Committed Intake – Own Grapes, Committed Intake – Purchased Grapes, Total Required Intake for the next 2 years
The tonnages wineries are committed to crush for the next 2 years, and they would prefer to crush assuming no limitations on equipment, supplies etc.
Purchase Prices
The highest and lowest price paid for each variety and the total purchase value (post receival price, not including freight or end use bonuses) for each variety purchased.
Tonnes crushed for concentrate and distillate – 2011 vintage only
Due to the 2010-11 seasonal conditions, wineries were also asked to report on tonnes of grapes crushed for concentrate and distillate.
DATA QUALITY Responses were not received from all wineries sent survey forms and some wineries may not have been approached. The absolute tonnages should, therefore, be treated with care. A proportion of wineries did not supply all the data requested. This was particularly true of price data and future estimates.
The data has been checked exhaustively to eliminate transcription and analysis errors and to reduce, where possible, errors in data supplied by wineries. The data on the current vintage can be considered as accurate as possible.
The projections are a snapshot of the views of wine makers or company executives at the time of the survey. They are subject to variation with market fluctuations and changes in production over subsequent years. The projections are imperfect and will almost certainly vary with time.
DATA TREATMENT All data provided by the wineries has been aggregated. Under an agreement with the wineries covering the provision of data, disaggregation is not permitted. It is not possible to provide data from individual wineries.
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Section 1 Summary Data & Yearly Trends ...........................................................................................................................................................5
Total tonnes crushed and total crop value............................................................................................................................................6
Actual and preferred tonnages since 2006...........................................................................................................................................7
Historical trends in production ..............................................................................................................................................................8
Historical trends in estimated value of purchased fruit compared to total crush ..................................................................................9
Actual and preferred tonnages by variety...........................................................................................................................................10
Percentage of total crush by variety ...................................................................................................................................................11
Section 2 Price & Tonnage Data..........................................................................................................................................................................12
Notes on information provided in Section 2........................................................................................................................................13
Intake and price summary data by variety for red grapes ..................................................................................................................14
Intake and price summary data by variety for white grapes ...............................................................................................................15
Intake and price summary data by variety for red grapes: Murray Darling & Swan Hill based wineries only ....................................16
Intake and price summary data by variety for white grapes: Murray Darling & Swan Hill based wineries only .................................17
Section 3 Estimates of Expected & Preferred Intakes ......................................................................................................................................18
Notes on information provided in Section 3........................................................................................................................................19
Section 4 Trend Graphs for Selected Varieties .................................................................................................................................................25
Notes on information provided in Section 4........................................................................................................................................26
List of Wineries Returning Survey Forms................................................................................................................................................................39
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 5 -
Summary Data and Yearly Trends
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 6 -
TOTAL TONNES CRUSHED AND TOTAL CROP VALUE – Wine only
Total winery grown
Total purchased Total crushed (supply)
Total preferred (demand)
Tonnes from other growers as % of total
% of demand supplied
Estimated value of purchased grapes
Estimated value of total crush
Red 16,881 71,261 88,142 128,574 81% 69% $21,788,479 $26,877,010
White 37,051 131,205 168,256 189,669 78% 89% $36,920,826 $46,764,057
Total 53,932 202,466 256,398 318,243 79% 81% $58,709,305 $73,641,067
TOTAL TONNES CRUSHED AND TOTAL CROP VALUE – Wine and Concentrate
Total winery grown
Total purchased Total crushed (supply)
Total preferred (demand)
Tonnes from other growers as % of total
% of demand supplied
Estimated value of purchased grapes
Estimated value of total crush
Red 18,710 84,442 103,152 134,674 82% 77% $24,330,419 $29,418,950
White 39,441 138,213 177,654 190,609 78% 93% $38,445,317 $48,288,548
Total 58,151 222,655 280,806 325,283 79% 86% $62,775,736 $77,707,498
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 7 -
ACTUAL AND PREFERRED TONNAGES SINCE 2006
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Crushed
Preferred
Crushed 415,937 355,389 365,211 375,323 328,147 256,398 280,806
Preferred 345,135 404,498 341,353 329,950 314,610 318,243 325,283
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 - Wine only2011 - Wine +
Concentrate
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 8 -
HISTORICAL TRENDS IN PRODUCTION
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 9 -
HISTORICAL TRENDS IN ESTIMATED VALUE OF PURCHASED FRUIT COMPARED TO TOTAL CRUSH
$0
$50,000,000
$100,000,000
$150,000,000
$200,000,000
$250,000,000
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Harvest Year
Es
tim
ate
d V
alu
e
Purchased - wine only ($)
Crushed - wine only ($)
Purchased - wine + concentrate ($)
Crushed - wine + concentrate ($)
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 10 -
ACTUAL AND PREFERRED TONNAGES BY VARIETY– Wine only Red Varieties
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
Shiraz Cabernet
Sauvignon
Merlot Petit Verdot Pinot Noir Ruby Cabernet
Variety
To
nn
es
Crushed
Preferred
White Varieties
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
Chardonnay Sauvignon
Blanc
Muscat
Gordo
Blanco
Colombard Semillon Pinot Gris Other White Sultana Canada
Muscat
Muscat a
Petit Grains
Blanc
Variety
To
nn
es
Crushed
Preferred
Note: Varieties with both crushed and preferred less than 2000 tonnes are not represented in these graphs.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 11 -
PRECENTAGE OF TOTAL CRUSH BY VARIETY– Wine only
Red Varieties
Pinot Noir
3% Petit Verdot
1%
Merlot
28%
Ruby Cabernet
2%
Shiraz
36% Cabernet Sauvignon
30%
Cabernet Sauvignon
Merlot
Petit Verdot
Pinot Noir
Ruby Cabernet
Shiraz
White Varieties
Viognier
1%
Canada Muscat
1%
Verdelho
1%
Sultana
1%Semillon
7%Sauvignon Blanc
12%
Riesling
1%
Other White
1%
Pinot Gris
4%
Muscat Gordo Blanco
10%
Chardonnay
53%
Colombard
7%
Muscat a Petit Grains Blanc
1%
Canada Muscat
Chardonnay
Colombard
Muscat a Petit Grains Blanc
Muscat Gordo Blanco
Other White
Pinot Gris
Riesling
Sauvignon Blanc
Semillon
Sultana
Verdelho
Viognier
Note: Varieties with both crushed and preferred less than 1000 tonnes are not represented in these graphs.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 12 -
Price and Tonnage Data
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 13 -
NOTES ON INFORMATION PROVIDED IN SECTION 2
Total crush
The total tonnes of grapes crushed from the Murray Darling / Swan Hill regions whether processed in that region, another region in Victoria or interstate. All wineries in Australia who source fruit from Murray Darling / Swan Hill vineyards are included in the survey collection process. Reported fruit is separated into fruit produced from the winery’s own vineyards (“own grown”) and from independent grower owned vineyards (“purchased”).
Tonnes Purchased as % of Total
This statistic is calculated by dividing the tonnes purchased from independent growers (total other growers) by the total tonnes crushed. This figure is then expressed as a percentage. It indicates the proportion of grapes purchased from independent growers.
Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price)
Calculated by dividing the total purchase value (post receival price, not including freight or end use bonuses) for a variety (summed across all wineries) by the total tonnes of the same variety purchased from other growers.
Winery grown grapes are not included in the calculation of the Calculated Average Purchase Value.
The Calculated Average Purchase Value in this report is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.
Lowest and Highest Prices
Wineries are asked to report the highest and lowest prices paid for any parcel of fruit of a particular variety, of any size. The highest of all highest prices and the lowest of all lowest prices are reported – provided that at least three wineries have provided this information for any particular variety.
The highest or lowest price may be for a very small parcel of fruit - and/or reflect an unusual pricing arrangement - eg payment by the hectare rather than per tonne, “spot market” sales of excess fruit etc.
Total value of purchased grapes
Calculated as the Calculated Average Purchase Value multiplied by the total tonnes purchased.
Estimated Total Value of All Grapes
Calculated as the Calculated Average Purchase Value of purchased fruit multiplied by the total tonnes crushed, for each variety.
If there is a variety where there are no purchases, then the average purchase value across all other varieties of the same colour in the same region is used to determine an estimated value for the own grown grapes. Discrepancies will appear in the estimated total value of all grapes and the estimated total value of purchased grapes if the average price is calculated.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 14 -
INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR RED GRAPES – Wine only PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY
Variety Purchased
(t)
Lowest price ($/t)
Highest price ($/t)
Total value purchased grapes ($)
Tonnes purchased as a % of
total
Calculated average purchase
value ($/t)
Winery grown fruit (t)
Total crushed
(t)
Estimated total value
ALL grapes ($)
Cabernet Sauvignon 22,737 $150 $600 $7,043,647 86% $310 3,578 26,315 $8,152,137
Grenache 559 $167,808 100% $300 0 559 $167,808
Malbec 10 $4,284 100% $450 0 10 $4,284
Merlot 18,467 $150 $744 $5,677,729 78% $307 5,296 23,762 $7,305,943 Muscat a Petit Grains Rouge / Rose 308 $207,868 100% $675 0 308 $207,868
Nebbiolo 0 35 35 $10,587
Other Red 120 $220 $400 $38,330 80% $321 30 150 $47,943
Petit Verdot 1,010 $175 $300 $272,910 100% $270 0 1,010 $272,910
Pinot Noir 2,670 $275 $400 $899,249 93% $337 215 2,885 $971,646
Ruby Cabernet 22 $6,087 2% $280 1,304 1,325 $371,129
Sangiovese 464 $250 $450 $144,699 67% $312 234 698 $217,575
Shiraz 24,824 $150 $450 $7,292,172 80% $294 6,175 30,998 $9,106,029
Tempranillo 71 $33,696 82% $474 16 87 $41,150
Total Red winegrapes 71,261 $21,788,479 81% 16,881 88,142 $26,877,010 ** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 15 -
INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR WHITE GRAPES – Wine only PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY
Variety Purchased
(t)
Lowest price ($/t)
Highest price ($/t)
Total value purchased grapes ($)
Tonnes purchased as a % of
total
Calculated average purchase
value ($/t)
Winery grown fruit (t)
Total crushed
(t)
Estimated total value
ALL grapes ($)
Canada Muscat 2,296 $1,259,462 100% $549 0 2,296 $1,259,462
Chardonnay 67,032 $135 $714 $16,825,612 76% $251 20,922 87,955 $22,077,201
Chenin Blanc 116 $16,447 100% $141 0 116 $16,447
Colombard 10,383 $135 $250 $2,006,932 83% $193 2,063 12,446 $2,405,712
Crouchen 182 $36,420 34% $200 349 531 $106,166 Muscat a Petit Grains Blanc 1,816 $350 $809 $825,047 100% $454 0 1,816 $825,047
Muscat Gordo Blanco 15,018 $100 $420 $5,155,826 93% $343 1,066 16,084 $5,521,860
Other White 2,367 $175 $950 $1,122,479 100% $474 0 2,367 $1,122,479
Pinot Gris 5,065 $300 $685 $2,179,025 71% $430 2,064 7,129 $3,067,108
Riesling 710 $135 $600 $165,398 47% $233 815 1,526 $355,171
Sauvignon Blanc 15,692 $135 $490 $4,819,577 77% $307 4,739 20,430 $6,274,974
Semillon 7,323 $135 $450 $1,813,114 64% $248 4,161 11,485 $2,843,408
Sultana 1,312 $296,715 100% $226 0 1,312 $296,715
Verdelho 826 $135 $325 $198,136 59% $240 569 1,394 $334,641
Viognier 1,066 $135 $251 $200,636 78% $188 303 1,369 $257,667
Total White winegrapes 131,205 $36,920,826 78% 37,051 168,256 $46,764,057 Grand Total All winegrapes 202,466 $58,709,305 79% 53,932 256,398 $73,641,067
** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 16 -
INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR RED GRAPES: MURRAY DARLING & SWAN HILL BASED WINERIES ONLY – Wine only PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY
Variety Purchased
(t)
Lowest price ($/t)
Highest price ($/t)
Total value purchased grapes ($)
Tonnes purchased as a % of
total
Calculated average purchase
value ($/t)
Winery grown fruit (t)
Total crushed
(t)
Estimated total value
ALL grapes ($)
Cabernet Sauvignon 18,973 $150 $600 $5,853,109 85% $309 3,326 22,299 $6,879,230
Grenache 559 $167,808 100% $300 0 559 $167,808
Merlot 11,498 $150 $600 $3,201,349 68% $278 5,296 16,793 $4,675,854 Muscat a Petit Grains Rouge / Rose 308 $207,868 100% $675 0 308 $207,868
Nebbiolo 0 35 35 $10,274
Other Red 120 $220 $400 $38,330 80% $321 30 150 $47,943
Petit Verdot 776 $175 $300 $206,904 100% $267 0 776 $206,904
Pinot Noir 1,883 $300 $400 $639,708 90% $340 215 2,098 $712,730
Ruby Cabernet 0 1,304 1,304 $386,909
Sangiovese 430 $129,219 65% $301 234 663 $199,509
Shiraz 20,505 $150 $450 $5,879,785 81% $287 4,854 25,359 $7,271,564
Tempranillo 71 $33,696 82% $474 16 87 $41,150
Total Red winegrapes 55,122 $16,357,777 78% 15,308 70,430 $20,807,742
** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 17 -
INTAKE AND PRICE SUMMARY DATA BY VARIETY FOR WHITE GRAPES: MURRAY DARLING & SWAN HILL BASED WINERIES ONLY – Wine only
PURCHASED GRAPES SUMMARY
Variety Purchased
(t)
Lowest price ($/t)
Highest price ($/t)
Total value purchased grapes ($)
Tonnes purchased as a % of
total
Calculated average purchase
value ($/t)
Winery grown fruit (t)
Total crushed
(t)
Estimated total value
ALL grapes ($)
Canada Muscat 404 $141,435 100% $350 0 404 $141,435
Chardonnay 59,221 $135 $500 $14,437,335 74% $244 20,528 79,750 $19,441,868
Chenin Blanc 116 $16,447 100% $141 0 116 $16,447
Colombard 8,829 $135 $250 $1,676,155 81% $190 2,063 10,892 $2,067,850
Crouchen 0 349 349 $92,451 Muscat a Petit Grains Blanc 1,297 $350 $450 $561,534 100% $433 0 1,297 $561,534
Muscat Gordo Blanco 14,014 $100 $400 $4,773,970 93% $341 1,066 15,080 $5,137,172
Other White 649 $175 $500 $230,444 100% $355 0 649 $230,444
Pinot Gris 3,447 $340 $500 $1,262,257 63% $366 2,064 5,511 $2,018,122
Riesling 710 $135 $600 $165,398 47% $233 815 1,526 $355,171
Sauvignon Blanc 12,937 $135 $430 $3,916,754 73% $303 4,739 17,675 $5,351,402
Semillon 6,558 $135 $450 $1,638,643 61% $250 4,161 10,720 $2,678,402
Sultana 1,312 $296,715 100% $226 0 1,312 $296,715
Verdelho 746 $135 $250 $172,279 57% $231 569 1,315 $303,629
Viognier 1,066 $135 $251 $200,636 78% $188 303 1,369 $257,667
Total White winegrapes 111,306 $29,490,000 75% 36,657 147,964 $38,950,311 Grand Total All winegrapes 166,428 $45,847,777 76% 51,966 218,394 $59,758,054
** The Calculated Average Purchase Value (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price or WAP) is calculated from data that is known to be incomplete. Therefore, it is possible that the Calculated Average Purchase Value is biased due to the incomplete data.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 18 -
Estimates of Expected and Preferred Intakes
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 19 -
NOTES ON INFORMATION PROVIDED IN SECTION 3 ESTIMATES OF EXPECTED AND PREFERRED INTAKES FOR THE NEXT TWO YEARS
Committed intake – own grapes
The estimated tonnage of grapes sourced from winery owned or leased vineyards. This includes grapes owned by subsidiary or affiliated companies.
This figure takes into account intended new plantings that will come into bearing or intended removals during the projection period.
Committed intake – contracted purchases
Grapes wineries are committed to purchase in the projected year. Any arrangements that they consider to be binding are included. This may be written contracts or verbal agreements.
Only existing arrangements are reported. Planned or possible future contracts or renewals are not included.
Total required intake – demand
The total requirement for grapes to meet projected sales projections. This does not include planned purchases of bulk wine.
The % required/committed intake shows the percentage of the wineries’ requirement that is already committed for a given year. Eg a figure of 83% indicates that wineries already have contracts (or own grown fruit) to supply 83% of their demand for that year.
Note:
• Not all wineries provide estimates of future intakes - particularly for the later projected years. Therefore projections for later years tend to underreport actual demand. The projections of future intake should be interpreted and used cautiously. It should be noted that there is considerable variation from one survey to the next in demand projections for the same future projected year, as marketing indications change. The projections should only be interpreted as general indications of current levels of confidence, and trends in varietal preferences.
Wine grapes sought on the open market (possible spot market requirement)
This figure is inferred from the difference between committed intake (own grown & purchased) and total required intake.
Projected supply
This figure has been provided from the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Sciences (ABARES).
Note:
• Projections regarding supply/demand should be regarded as a guide only. Growers should always conduct thorough research before committing to vine removals and planting. Consideration of new plantings should include whether secure markets will be available for the fruit when it comes into production. Increasingly, supply/demand is influenced by factors outside the region, i.e. over or under supply in other regions in Australia and elsewhere in the world, so regional figures must be considered in that context.
Wine grapes available on the open market
This figure is inferred from the difference between supply and committed intake (own grown & purchased).
Surplus or shortfall of grapes on the open market
The difference between wine grapes sought on the open market and wine grapes available on the open market. However, when both projected supply and committed intake is greater than total required intake (demand), then the surplus/shortfall is recorded as zero. A negative number indicates a shortfall and a positive number indicates surplus.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 20 -
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total committed
intake
Total required
intake (Demand)
% required intake that
is committed
Winegrapes sought on the open market
(Possible spot market requirement)
Projected Supply
Winegrapes available on
the open market
Surplus or shortfall of
grapes on the open market
Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of demand
Red wine grapes
2012 27,484 100,981 128,465 133,801 96% 5,335 144,572 16,107 10,771 8%
2013 27,591 86,038 113,629 128,421 88% 14,793 145,817 32,188 17,396 14%
White wine grapes
2012 44,852 146,604 191,455 177,507 108% -13,949 216,387 24,932 24,932 14%
2013 46,121 125,688 171,809 169,801 101% -2,008 217,783 45,974 0* 0%
All wine grapes
2012 72,336 247,585 319,921 311,307 103% -8,614 360,960 41,039 0* 0%
2013 73,712 211,726 285,438 298,222 96% 12,785 363,601 78,163 0* 0%
Red Wine Grapes
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2012 2013
Year
Tonnes
White Wine Grapes
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2012 2013
Year
All Wine Grapes
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2012 2013
Year
Tonnes
Total committed intake
Total required intake
(Demand)
Projected Supply
*Figure intentionally reported as zero – please read the explanation given on page 19
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 21 -
SUPPLY AND DEMAND ANALYSIS – MAJOR VARIETIES
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total committed
intake
Total required
intake (Demand)
% required intake that
is committed
Winegrapes sought on the open market
(Possible spot market requirement)
Projected Supply
Winegrapes available on
the open market
Surplus or shortfall of
grapes on the open market
Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of
demand
Cabernet Sauvignon
2012 7,778 30,286 38,064 40,881 93% 2,817 38,877 813 -2,004 -5%
2013 7,928 25,809 33,738 38,090 89% 4,352 38,923 5,185 833 2%
Chardonnay
2012 23,772 66,799 90,572 84,256 107% -6,316 100,636 10,064 0* 0%
2013 23,656 55,092 78,748 80,399 98% 1,651 100,782 22,034 20,383 25%
Colombard
2012 3,188 8,238 11,426 12,046 95% 620 20,091 8,665 8,045 67%
2013 3,420 6,689 10,109 11,077 91% 968 20,091 9,982 9,014 81%
Cabernet Sauvignon
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2012 2013
Year
Tonnes
Chardonnay
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2012 2013
Year
Colombard
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
2012 2013
Year
Total committed intake
Total required intake
(Demand)
Projected Supply
*Figure intentionally reported as zero – please read the explanation given on page 19
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 22 -
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total committed
intake
Total required
intake (Demand)
% required intake that
is committed
Winegrapes sought on the open market
(Possible spot market requirement)
Projected Supply
Winegrapes available on
the open market
Surplus or shortfall of
grapes on the open market
Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of
demand
Merlot
2012 7,307 21,736 29,043 34,396 84% 5,354 30,659 1,616 -3,737 -11%
2013 6,901 17,819 24,721 33,997 73% 9,277 30,659 5,938 -3,338 -10%
Muscat Gordo Blanco
2012 1,508 20,577 22,086 25,162 88% 3,077 * Individual data based on Muscat Gordo Blanco no longer available from
2013 1,624 18,465 20,089 22,355 90% 2,265 ABARES
Petit Verdot
2012 406 1,462 1,868 2,261 83% 393 2,293 425 32 1%
2013 406 1,462 1,868 2,261 83% 393 1,994 126 -267 -12%
Merlot
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2012 2013
Year
Tonnes
Muscat Gordo Blanco
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2012 2013
Year
Tonnes
Petit Verdo
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2012 2013
Year
Tonnes
Total committed intake
Total required intake
(Demand)
Projected Supply
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 23 -
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total committed
intake
Total required
intake (Demand)
% required intake that
is committed
Winegrapes sought on the open market
(Possible spot market requirement)
Projected Supply
Winegrapes available on
the open market
Surplus or shortfall of
grapes on the open market
Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of
demand
Pinot Gris/Grigio
2012 2,708 16,909 19,617 12,549 156% -7,068 17,158 -2,459 0* 0%
2013 2,940 19,651 22,591 12,516 181% -10,075 17,158 -5,433 0* 0%
Riesling
2012 869 595 1,464 1,251 117% -213 2,423 959 959 77%
2013 754 467 1,221 1,247 98% 27 2,423 1,202 1,176 94%
Sauvignon Blanc
2012 6,111 15,939 22,050 19,071 116% -2,978 18,758 -3,292 -3,292 -17%
2013 6,400 12,093 18,493 18,808 98% 315 18,953 460 145 1%
Pinot Gris
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2012 2013
Year
Tonnes
Riesling
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2012 2013
Year
Tonnes
Sauvignon Blanc
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2012 2013
Year
Tonnes
Total committed intake
Total required intake
(Demand)
Projected Supply
*Figure intentionally reported as zero – please read the explanation given on page 19
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 24 -
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total committed
intake
Total required intake
(Demand)
% required intake that is committed
Winegrapes sought on the open market
(Possible spot market
requirement)
Projected Supply
Winegrapes available on the
open market
Surplus or shortfall of
grapes on the open market
Surplus or shortfall as a percentage of
demand
Semillon
2012 5,243 7,380 12,623 11,644 108% -980 10,813 -1,810 -831 -7%
2013 5,649 6,761 12,410 12,242 101% -168 11,107 -1,303 -1,303 -11%
Shiraz
2012 7,957 40,843 48,800 44,833 109% -3,967 59,832 11,032 11,032 25%
2013 7,957 34,546 42,503 42,780 99% 277 60,328 17,825 17,548 41%
Sultana
2012 0 1,138 1,138 1,243 92% 104 * Individual data based on Sultana no longer available from ABARES
2013 0 1,170 1,170 1,158 101% -12
Semillon
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2012 2013
Year
Tonnes
Shiraz
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2012 2013
Year
Sultana
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
2012 2013
Year
Total committed intake
Total required intake
(Demand)
Projected Supply
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 25 -
Trend Graphs for Selected Varieties
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 26 -
NOTES ON TREND GRAPHS PROVIDED IN SECTION 4
The following graphs show the historical trends in tonnages for the 3 years preceding the current vintage where data exists and for the next 2 years where projected data is available.
Possible spot market requirement (wine grapes sought on the open market)
This figure is inferred from the difference between committed intake (own grown & purchased) and total required intake.
Where data exists, graphs showing the historical trend in weighted average price for 5 years preceding the current vintage are also included. These graphs represent the Calculated Average Purchase Value per Tonne (formerly Weighted Average Weighbridge Price) for all wine grapes purchased from the Murray Darling / Swan Hill regions, not only those purchased by Sunraysia wineries. Graphs have been provided for major varieties in the 2011 vintage. It is important to note that wineries were asked to only provide committed purchase figures on their existing arrangements. Planned or possible future contracts or renewals have not been taken into account in this figure. The projected spot market requirement may therefore change over time as contracts are renewed or new contracts signed.
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 27 -
Cabernet Sauvignon
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Cabernet Sauvignon
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Cabernet Sauvignon
$362$399
$637
$412
$313 $310
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Va
lue
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 28 -
Chardonnay
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Chardonnay
-20,000
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Chardonnay
$382 $396
$521
$293
$224$251
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Va
lue
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 29 -
Colombard
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Colombard
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Colombard
$301 $297
$423
$283
$227$193
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Va
lue
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 30 -
Merlot
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Merlot
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Merlot
$385 $400
$598
$381
$301 $307
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Va
lue
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 31 -
Muscat Gordo Blanco
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Muscat Gordo Blanco
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Muscat Gordo Blanco
$350$374
$456
$366
$294
$343
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Valu
e
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 32 -
Petit Verdot
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Petit Verdot
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Pertit Verdo
$321 $321
$619
$392
$295$270
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Valu
e
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 33 -
Pinot Gris/Grigio
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Pinot Gris/Grigio
-10,000
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Value – Pinot Gris/Grigio
$703 $694 $700
$611$549
$430
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Va
lue
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 34 -
Riesling
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Riesling
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Riesling
$451$506 $505
$381
$300
$233
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Va
lue
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 35 -
Sauvignon Blanc
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Sauvignon Blanc
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Sauvignon Blanc
$489$516 $523
$456
$355$307
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Valu
e
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 36 -
Semillon
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Semillon
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Semillon
$378 $365
$472
$309
$249 $248
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Harvest Year
Va
lue
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 37 -
Shiraz
Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Shiraz
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Shiraz
$399 $424
$642
$416
$310 $294
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Harvest Year
Valu
e
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 38 -
Sultana Historical Trends in Production and Projections – Sultana
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Harvest Year
To
nn
es
Winery grown grapes
Contract purchases
Total crushed
Committed winery
grown
Committed contract
purchases
Required intake
(demand)
Possible spot market
requirement
Historical Calculated Average Purchase Price Value - Sultana
$263$241
$349
$272
$217 $226
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Valu
e
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 39 -
List of Wineries Returning Survey Forms
Wine Grape Crush Survey 2011 (Murray Darling & Swan Hill) - 40 -
THANK YOU TO THE FOLLOWING WINERIES WHO RESPONDED TO THE 2011 SURVEY Accolade Wines Kingston Estate Wines The Wine Group
Angoves McPhersons Wines The Yalumba Wine Company
Australian Vintage Oak Valley Estate Boutique Winery Treasury Wine Estates
Austwine Viticulture Orlando Wines Vintage Traders
Casella Wines Peter Lehmann Wines Warburn Estate
De Bortoli Wines Pettavel Winery and Resturant Wooden Eye Estate
Deakin Estate Qualia Wine Services Zilzie Wines
Dorrien Estate Winery Red Cliffs Wines