What Happens!

What Happens!

Mike MenkusProfessional

Engineer(PE021061)

February 2012

Cobb County Citizen’s Public Safety Academy Graduate – 2011

Researcher & Author

Professional Engineer

What Happens!

• What Happens to Crime After Changes in Carry Laws

• Drill Down From National to Campus Views

• What Are The Characteristics of Active Killer Events

• Time Frames and Predicted Causalities

• What Happens In A Mumbai Swarm Attack

• Licensees - The Solution

Changes In Carry Laws

Changes in Carry Laws

• FBI Uniform Crime Report Data

• A Better Measurement & Method– Aggravated Assault PLUS Robbery

• An attack by one person upon another with a weapon

• Taking of property by the threat or use of force

– Does Not Include breakouts of Murder and Forcible Rape

– Focus on What Happens Around Change

• Guns Good Bans Bad– 12 examples of the impact of carry law

changes– Economic Value of the changes and

Constitutional Carry– http://tinyurl.com/gunsgood

United States – National ViewMore Americans Carrying Firearms For Self Defense

# of Licensees from 10 states – FL, GA, KS, ND, OH, SC, TX, UT, VA

United StatesAggravated Assault + Robbery Rate

vs.# of Licensed Gun Carriers

360

380

400

420

440

460

480

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Ag

gra

vate

d A

ssau

lt +

Ro

bb

ery

(#/1

00K

)

800,000

1,300,000

1,800,000

2,300,000

2,800,000

# o

f L

icen

sed

Gu

n C

arri

ers

(FL

, GA

, KS

, MI,

ND

, OH

, SC

, TX

, UT

,VA

)

Aggravated Assault + Robbery (#/100,000)

# of Licensed Gun Carriers

18% REDUCTION In Aggravated Assault + Robbery

While # of Licensed Gun Carriers Doubles

Georgia – State ViewGeorgia Expands Allowed Carry Locations (HB89, SB308)

Licensees numbers from Caseload Reports from Probate Judges – 2010 may be revised upward

1998

1999http://www.fbi.gov/filelink.html?file=/ucr/Cius_99/w99tbl05.xls

Table 5Index of Crimeby State, 1999

AreaGEORGIA

Metropolitan Statistical Area Area actually reporting Estimated totalsCities outside metropolitan areas

GeorgiaAggravated Assault + Robbery

(#/100,000 Population)

350

370

390

410

430

450

470

490

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Ag

gra

vate

d A

ssau

lt +

Ro

bb

ery

250

270

290

310

330

350

370

390

410

430

450

# o

f L

icen

sees

(th

ou

san

ds)

Agg.Assault + Robbery (#/100K) # of Licensees

July 2010 - SB308 Dramatically Expands Where Licensees Can

Carry

# of Licenses Grows By 48% As Carrying In More

Places Allowed (2007 to 2010)

6.6% of Voting Eligible Population Has Carry License

(436,739 Licensees)

July 2008 - HB89 Expands Where

Licensees Can Carry

11% Average REDUCTION In Aggravated Assault + Robbery

After Expansion of Allowed Carry Locations

(2003-2007 to 2009-2010)

1994 – Georgia State University1,000’ School Safety Zone Enacted

19851986198719881989199019911992199319941995199619971998

Georgia StateAggravated Assault + Robbery Rates

(#/100K Population)

0

20

40

60

80

100

1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Agg

rava

ted

Ass

ault

+ R

obbe

ry

April 1994 - 1000' School Safety Zone

322% Average INCREASE In (Aggravated Assault + Robbery)

(1985-1993 to 1998-2009)

Transition Period

July 2010 -Georgia Repeals 1000' Zone

18% Average REDUCTION from 2005 - 2009 to 2010

Guns Allowed Within 1000' of Campus

Guns Prohibited Within 1000' of Campus

Likely Reporting Errors

2006 – Utah Universities & CollegesCarry On Campus Allowed – Including Dorms

Utah Colleges & UniversitiesAggravated Assault + Robbery

(#/100,000 Enrollment)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Agg

rava

ted

Ass

aul

t +

Rob

bery

Sept. 2006 - Utah Supreme Court Ends Univ. of Utah's Gun Ban.

Guns Prohibited On Campus

31% Average REDUCTION In Aggravated Assault + Robbery

(2003-2006 to 2007-2010)

Guns Allowed On Campus

2003 – Colorado State – Ft. CollinsCarry On Campus Allowed By Licensees

http://www.fbi.gov/ucr/cius_00/00crime213.pdf

Colorado State UniversityAggravated Assault + Robbery

(#/100,000 Enrollment)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012

Agg

rava

ted

Ass

ault

+ R

obbe

ry

May 2003 - Guns Permitted on CSU Campus

47% Average REDUCTION In Aggravated Assault + Robbery

(1998-2002 to 2004-2010)

Guns Allowed On Campus

Guns Prohibited On Campus

Transition Period

Big Points

• More People Carrying In More Locations Reduces Crime

• Licensees Are Carrying Responsibly– Irresponsible behavior would show up in stats

• Economic Benefit to Georgia of reduced crime is $1.1B/year

Factors Influencing Crime Reductions

• Breathless Media Coverage (Publicity)• More references to wild west & blood filled streets the greater

reduction

• Ease of Carrying After Change (Opportunity)• More hurdles and harassments to carrying the less reduction

– Training, notification of LE, signage, forced disarm situations, etc.• Likelihood of being rousted and hassled by LE

• Number of Carriers Carrying (Numbers)• More carriers carrying the greater reduction• Georgia Licensees – 6.6% of voting eligible population and

growing!• % of Gun Ownership of Democrats and Women Increased by 8% and 7%

in 2011, per Gallup

Active Killer Events

Rapid Mass MurderComposite Timeline

Atlanta PD High-Priority Response Time = 11 mins.

Atlanta Journal Constitution - 2009http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/metro/atlanta/stories/2009/03/22/atlanta_police_response.html#comment

tend - Killer Under LE Control

911 Dispatch Suicide Prior To LE Arrival

0 5 10

LE Arrives On Scene

TOTAL VICTIM TIME = 6 MinutesLE ARRIVAL TIME From t0 = 8 Minutes

TOTAL EVENT TIME (t0 to tend) = 13 Minutes

5 mins.6 mins.

t0 - Killer Decides To Begin

2 mins.

Attack Ends

X

Virginia Tech – Norris Hall - 2007

…. and 16 months later

Roanoke Times – January 31, 2006

Suicide Prior To LE Contact tend - Killer Under LE Control - 17 mins. After Suicide

0 5 10 15 20 25

LE Enters Building After Assembling Team and Breaching Chained DoorsLE Arrives On Scene

Killed = 32, Wounded = 25

Attack Ends911 Dispatch

T0 - Killer Decides To Begin

23 mins.2 mins. 3 mins.

From Nearby Locations

LE ARRIVAL TIME From t0 = 5 MinutesTOTAL VICTIM TIME = 11 Minutes

TOTAL EVENT TIME (t0 to tend) = 28 Minutes

X

Westroads Mall, Omaha NE - 2007

Sign on Entrance To Westroads Mall

Photo Taken Hours After Attack

911 Dispatch Suicide Prior To LE Arrival tend - Killer Under LE Control - 24 mins. After Arrival

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

LE Arrives On Scene

TOTAL VICTIM TIME = 6 Minutes

LE ARRIVAL TIME From t0 = 8 Minutes

TOTAL EVENT TIME (t0 to tend) = 32 MinutesKilled = 8, Wounded = 4

24 mins.

t0 - Killer Decides To Begin

2 mins. 6 mins.

Attack Ends

X

Red Lake School, MN - 2005

CNN – March 23, 2005

911 Dispatch Suicide 1 min After LE Contact

0 5 10

tend - Killer Under LE Control

LE Arrives On Scene

Killed = 10, Wounded = 7

t0 - Killer Decides To Begin

TOTAL VICTIM TIME = 9 MinutesLE ARRIVAL TIME From t0 = 8 Minutes

Attack Ends

2 mins. 6 mins.

Jack May Counter-Attacks With Pencil

TOTAL EVENT TIME (t0 to tend) = 9 Minutes

X

Tucson AZ - 2010

Bold, rapid and aggressive action, by even a solo actor, has been and is now the most effective countermeasure to the active killer.

Ron Borsch

Attack Ends Two Men Tackle Killer

tend - Killer Under LE Control

1m0 5

LE Arrives On Scene

TOTAL VICTIM TIME = 2 Minutes

TOTAL EVENT TIME (t0 to tend) = 4 Minutes

3 mins.

T0 - Killer Decides To Begin

911 Dispatch

Killed = 6, Wounded = 13

LE ARRIVAL TIME From t0 = 4 Minutes

X

Stop Watch Of Death– Ron Borsch – Law Enforcement Officer – 17 year SWAT team member

• Southeast Area Law Enforcement Regional Training Academy-Bedford OH

– Research Data Set• Nearly 100 “rapid mass murder” episodes in which 4 or more slayings have occurred, in the same location,

within 20 minutes, done by individuals not related to drugs or gangs, and in public places

– Findings

• Stop Watch of Death = 4.7 killed/wounded per minute

• Timing– Rapid Mass Murder Attack Times average 6 minutes. (t0 to Attack End)

– Law Enforcement Arrival Times average 8 minutes ((t0 to LE Arrival)

• Who Resists and Stops Sprees:– 67% - armed or unarmed solo CIVILIANS – 33% - solo and paired law enforcement officers– 0% - multiple officer formations

Used With Permission Of Ron Borsch – SEALE Bedford OH - [email protected]

Rapid Mass MurderStop Watch Of Death

The Faster The Attack Is Stopped, The More Lives Saved!! – Ron Borsch

Va Tech - Norris Hall

Tucson AZ

Northern Illinois U

Westroads Mall

Red Lake School

Fort Hood

Luby's

Pinelake Nursing Home

Brookfield Church

Jonesboro AR School

0

20

40

60

80

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14Time of Incident (minutes)

# o

f D

ea

d a

nd

Wo

un

ded

911 Dispatch

LE Arrives On Scene

Stop Watch of Death Line - 4.7 / min

Modus Operadi of Active KillersFrom Ron Borsch’s Research

• Nearly every active killer incident on record in the USA has occurred in so-called "gun-free" or "zero weapons tolerance" zone 

• The Killer’s primary objective is to produce as high a body count as possible in a shortest period of time, before LE arrives (less than 8 mins)

• Active Killer fears police and armed resistance

• Suicide is the end plan for 90% of the killers

• Never take hostages, non-compliant to warnings, and they do not negotiate

Used With Permission Of Ron Borsch – SEALE Bedford OH - [email protected]

Big Points• Time is not our friend - Passivity Kills!

• Every minute before Self Defense is applied is the potential for 5 additional victims

• Attacks last 6 minutes and only ends when killer decides or encounters resistance

• Law Enforcement, handicapped by time, distance and delayed notification, will arrive in 2 minutes AFTER the attack ends. Its rare that incidents are stopped in progress by LE

• Attack speed & toll is accelerating

• We need to be our own first responders!

Our Options During Rapid Mass Murder

• Hunker Down– Retreat, Hide, and Die– Virginia Tech

• Flee– Potential to run into ambush– Columbine (crickets)

• Fight– Proven Option To Stop The

Killing– Change In Mindset– Tucson, Appalachia School of

Law

Last Resort Active Shooter Survival Measures

by Alon Stivi - http://tinyurl.com/ACT911(8 min youtube video)

Attack Countermeasures Training

www.actcert.com

Mumbai Swarm(Mass Causality Terrorism)

Mumbai SwarmMultiple Location – Multiple Attacker

Assault• 5 two-man teams

• Simple Tactic Attack, Retreat, Repeat

• Ten Targets including a school, restaurants, hotels, a Jewish center, and public transit terminal.

• Used explosives as diversions and modern communications technology to coordinate and pulse attacks

Mumbai SwarmWhat Will Happen Here?

• 911 Overload – A system conditioned to one-major event will collapse into chaos with 5 simultaneous major events at changing locations.

• Gridlock – Everyone will flee. Pick up children. Get out of kill zone. Think Halloween traffic but infinitely worse.

• Complete Chaos – Twitter/Social Web used to panic public, redirect LE, and spread unfounded rumors.

Under These Conditions, LE Will Be Impotent

Licensees - The Solution

Licensees - The Solution

• Be An Undesirable Target – Don’t be a soft target like gun free India– Learn from Israel’s experience that armed parents and teachers

discourage school attacks – Redirect assailants elsewhere to seek defenseless victims– Repeal carry location prohibitions, especially schools

• Be A Hard Target– Empower immediate self-defense by Licensees

• On Location – At Initiation of Attack (t0)

• Better Tactical and Location Knowledge – Enable distributed response (armed Georgians) which can defeat

swarm tactics

• Empower Citizens To Protect Themselves and Children – There are not enough LE Officers to defend every school nor will

they arrive in time.– Parents and teachers can fill the void and a vested interest

Time Is Our Enemy – 4.7 Killed/Wounded Per Minute

Questions?