WECC System Schedulers Meeting Las Vegas, Nevada, May 10 – 11, 2010.

WECC System Schedulers MeetingLas Vegas, Nevada, May 10 – 11 , 2010

NW Hydro OperationsFrancis Halpin – Bonneville Power Administration

Hydrology 101Hydrology 101

Climatological zones Climatological zones range from high range from high deserts to mountain deserts to mountain rangesranges

Elevation ranges from Elevation ranges from 300ft to over 300ft to over 10,000ft10,000ft

Impacted by Pacific Impacted by Pacific Ocean as well as Ocean as well as continental continental influencesinfluences

Adiabatic LiftAdiabatic Lift

The Columbia The Columbia River BasinRiver Basin

Hydrology 101Hydrology 101HydrographsHydrographs

A hydrograph is a representation of flow for a particular stream and is used to evaluate the watershed runoff volumes and the peak flow rates from a single storm or set of storms. This information is then used in the design of flood control facilities. Watershed runoff is a function of several things, including: • rainfall intensity • storm duration • type of vegetation in the watershed area • size and shape of the watershed


Unit Hydrograph

The unit hydrograph depicts the response of the watershed from a unit (typically 1 inch) of excess rainfall uniformly distributed over the watershed at a uniform rate during a given period of time

Unit hydrograph can be used to predict the response of the watershed for any given rainfall distribution.

Unit hydrograph can be used to predict flood peaks within 25% of observed values (i.e. sufficient for planning)



Storm or Flood Hydrograph

Based on actual rainfall distribution and actual streamflow response

Plots actual runoff from a particular storm

Can be used to fine tune unit hydrograph.

Hydrology 101Hydrology 101Storm or Flood HydrographStorm or Flood Hydrograph

Hydrology 101Hydrology 101Storm or Flood HydrographStorm or Flood Hydrograph


ANNUAL HYDROGRAPH

•Annual streamflow hydrograph is a plot of streamflow versus time over a year or more

•Annual hydrographs show the long-term balance of precipitation, evaporation, and streamflow in awatershed

•In addition, annual hydrographs depict the temporal variability of streamflow

Hydrology 101Hydrology 101Annual HydrographAnnual Hydrograph

Annual Hydrograph

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

1 31 61 91 121 151 181 211 241 271 301 331 361

Time ------>

Flo

w (

cfs)

Hydrology 101Hydrology 101Annual Hydrograph – Multi YearAnnual Hydrograph – Multi Year


SUMMARY HYDROGRAPH

Summary hydrographs are a family of graphs which show, for each day of the calendar year, the maximum, minimum, various percentiles, etc. for the basin of interest over some period of record.

Any point can come from any of the years of record.

Easier to read than 50 traces of 50 different water years.

HydrologyHydrologyNatural versus Actual flow hydrographsNatural versus Actual flow hydrographs

Natural Flow – The flow which the basin would experience IF there were no dams.

Actual or Regulated Flow – the flow actually observed in the basin.

In a watershed with storage dams there is opportunity to store water from year to year or to release water stored from prior years. The change in storage is the major difference between natural flow and regulated flow.

HydrologyHydrologySummary Hydrograph – Willamette RiverSummary Hydrograph – Willamette River

HydrologyHydrologySummary Hydrograph – Snake RiverSummary Hydrograph – Snake River

HydrologyHydrologySummary Hydrograph – Columbia RiverSummary Hydrograph – Columbia River

HydrologyHydrologyColumbia River BasinColumbia River Basin

61%

27%12%

Where does the watercome from?

(as a percent of the annual runoff at The

Dalles)

0

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140

Run

off/S

tora

ge (m

af)

Missouri Colorado Columbia

Runoff to Storage Comparison

Annual Runoff (maf) Storage (maf)

Water Year Runoff (Oct-Sep) at The Dalles1929-2006*

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1929

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Oct

ober

- Se

ptem

ber R

unof

f (m

af)

Average = 135 maf (1929-1999)*2006 value is based on the NWRFC

February Final water supply forecast

105%

Columbia River Annual Runoff VariabilityColumbia River Annual Runoff Variability

Columbia River Annual Runoff VariabilityColumbia River Annual Runoff Variability

Adjusted Flow for 1929-2001Observed Flow for 1879-1928

40.050.060.070.080.090.0

100.0110.0120.0130.0140.0150.0160.0170.0180.0190.0

Yearly Jan-Jul Volume Runoff

5 yr Moving Average

119 Years of Actual January-July Volume Runoff at The Dalles for 1879 through 2001

1879

1884

1889

1894

1899

1904

1909

1914

1919

1924

1929

1934

1939

1944

1949

1954

1959

1964

1969

1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

1999

OK We have all this water – what OK We have all this water – what are we going to do with it all?are we going to do with it all?

Lets Build some dams.Lets Build some dams.

Rock Island Dam – 1932 Rock Island Dam – 1932

1930’s – 11930’s – 1stst of two federal dam building eras. of two federal dam building eras.

Bonneville – 1938, Grand Coulee – 1941Bonneville – 1938, Grand Coulee – 1941

Vanport Flood – 1948Vanport Flood – 1948Need more StorageNeed more Storage

OK We have all this water – what OK We have all this water – what are we going to do with it all?are we going to do with it all?

Lets Build some dams.Lets Build some dams.Vanport Flood - 1948Vanport Flood - 1948

1950’s and 1960’s – 2nd of two federal dam 1950’s and 1960’s – 2nd of two federal dam building eras.building eras.

Canadian TreatyCanadian Treaty

Large Storage ProjectsLarge Storage Projects

California IntertieCalifornia Intertie

4,000ft

3,500ft

3,000ft

2,500ft

2,000ft

1,500ft

1,000ft

500ft

Sea Level

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000 1100 1200Miles from River Mouth

Spok

ane

Riv

er

McNaryWanapum

Wells

Chief Joseph

Grand CouleeArrow Lakes

MicaLibby

Duncan Lake

Hungry Horse

Kerr

Thompson Falls

Noxon RapidsCabinet Gorge

Albeni Falls Box Canyon

So. F

ork

Fla

thea

d R

iver

Coeur d’Alene Lake

Oxbow

Brownlee

Chelan

Feet

abo

ve S

ea L

evel

Flath

ead

River

OCEAN

Columbi

a Rive

r

Ice Harbor

Snak

e R

iver

Rock Island

The Dalles

Rocky Reach

Priest Rapids

John DayBonneville

Pen

d O

riel

le

R

iver

Koo

tena

y R

iver

Cla

rk F

ork

River

Treaty Project

Dam in Canada

Base System Federal Project

Base System Non-Federal Project

NOTE: FOR ILLUSTRATIVE

PURPOSES; NOT ALL PROJECTS

ARE SHOWN

PNW Hydro Characteristics Common fuel supply, affected by non-power constraints Hydro operations have consequence,either immediately or in the future Hydro is used for regulation and load-following while thermal tends to be base loaded

United States – Canada Treaty and Columbia River Base System Projects

Kootenay Lake

The Need for Coordination in the PNWThe Need for Coordination in the PNW

Agreements Agreements

Columbia River TreatyColumbia River Treaty Yearly / Monthly regulationYearly / Monthly regulation

Pacific Northwest Coordination Agreement (PNCA)Pacific Northwest Coordination Agreement (PNCA) Yearly / Monthly regulationYearly / Monthly regulation

Mid Columbia Hourly Coordination Agreement (MCHC)Mid Columbia Hourly Coordination Agreement (MCHC) Daily / Hourly regulation Daily / Hourly regulation

Northwest Power Pool (NWPP)Northwest Power Pool (NWPP) Reserve Sharing Program Reserve Sharing Program Hourly / within-hourHourly / within-hour


Agreements Agreements One utility principleOne utility principle – determine the optimum power operation – determine the optimum power operation

within the bounds of non-power constraints as if operated by a within the bounds of non-power constraints as if operated by a single entity; a MW is a MW regardless of location.single entity; a MW is a MW regardless of location.

Power optimized on a Power optimized on a monthly basismonthly basis by directing the amount and by directing the amount and timing of storage releases at specific reservoirs.timing of storage releases at specific reservoirs.

Coordination will be safe for all parties Coordination will be safe for all parties Recognize Recognize autonomyautonomy of owners to operate their resources for their of owners to operate their resources for their

own needs while providing certainty to other coordinated parties own needs while providing certainty to other coordinated parties (using obligations for energy exchanges based on theoretical (using obligations for energy exchanges based on theoretical optimum hydro operation).optimum hydro operation).

Since power benefits are independent of location, Since power benefits are independent of location, requirement for requirement for sufficient transmission capacitysufficient transmission capacity to make coordination work. to make coordination work.


Pacific Northwest Coordination AgreementPacific Northwest Coordination Agreement Methods of making Parties wholeMethods of making Parties whole

In LieuIn LieuProvisional DraftProvisional DraftStorageStorageInterchangeInterchange

Mid Columbia Hourly CoordinationMid Columbia Hourly Coordination BPABPA Grand Coulee (BoR) and Chief Joe (Corps)Grand Coulee (BoR) and Chief Joe (Corps) Wells (DOPUD)Wells (DOPUD) Rocky Reach and Rock Island (CHPUD)Rocky Reach and Rock Island (CHPUD) Wanapum and Priest Rapids (GCPUD)Wanapum and Priest Rapids (GCPUD) Many other utilities both public and private are also membersMany other utilities both public and private are also members

Northwest Power PoolNorthwest Power Pool Operating CommitteeOperating Committee Reserve Sharing GroupReserve Sharing Group

19 Balancing Authorities – Canada, PNW and California19 Balancing Authorities – Canada, PNW and California

Coordinating with Federal PartnersCoordinating with Federal Partners

Corps of EngineersCorps of Engineers Willamette River PlantsWillamette River Plants Headwater ProjectsHeadwater Projects OutagesOutages Special OperationsSpecial Operations

Bureau of ReclamationBureau of Reclamation OutagesOutages Special OperationsSpecial Operations Pumping Operations and Banks LakePumping Operations and Banks Lake

Coordinating with Other PartiesCoordinating with Other Parties

Fishery OperationsFishery Operations

Technical Management Team (TMT)Technical Management Team (TMT)Weekly OperationsWeekly OperationsSpecial OperationsSpecial OperationsHatchery release timing and required spillHatchery release timing and required spillSeasonal use of available waterSeasonal use of available waterUse of storage space versus flood controlUse of storage space versus flood control

Conflicting constraintsConflicting constraintsFlood Control below the fish VECC results in a flat Flood Control below the fish VECC results in a flat operation with no ability to draft below FC.operation with no ability to draft below FC.

Putting the Daily Plan TogetherPutting the Daily Plan Together

Headwater Projects (storage)Headwater Projects (storage)

Libby, Dworshak, Hungry HorseLibby, Dworshak, Hungry Horse

Planned weeks to months aheadPlanned weeks to months ahead

Drafting to FC – Refill rateDrafting to FC – Refill rate

End of month target elevationEnd of month target elevation

Actual Schedules depend on inflowActual Schedules depend on inflow

Willamette ProjectsWillamette Projects

Flows determined by CorpsFlows determined by Corps

Some shaping on the Storage project is Some shaping on the Storage project is available available as as long as the Re-Reg keeps enough flow to run at long as the Re-Reg keeps enough flow to run at the the required flow.required flow.

Putting the Daily Plan TogetherPutting the Daily Plan Together

The Big TenThe Big TenMid ColumbiaMid Columbia

Grand Coulee Grand Coulee

Chief JosephChief Joseph

Lower SnakeLower SnakeLower GraniteLower Granite • Little Goose• Little Goose

Lower MonumentalLower Monumental • Ice Harbor• Ice Harbor

Lower ColumbiaLower ColumbiaMcNaryMcNary • John Day • John Day

The DallesThe Dalles • Bonneville • Bonneville

Scheduling the “Big 10”Scheduling the “Big 10”

BPA has optionality on the scheduling of BPA has optionality on the scheduling of these “Big Ten” projects.these “Big Ten” projects.

The majority of load following and The majority of load following and “dispatchable” reserves are carried on “dispatchable” reserves are carried on these 10 projects. these 10 projects.

These are the focus of BPA’s hydro These are the focus of BPA’s hydro generation scheduling group.generation scheduling group.


The optionality is bounded by physical The optionality is bounded by physical limitations and constraints at the projects limitations and constraints at the projects and by mandated hydraulic objectives like and by mandated hydraulic objectives like flood control and fishery requirements.flood control and fishery requirements.

Much of the year the constraints and Much of the year the constraints and hydraulic requirements are so prescriptive hydraulic requirements are so prescriptive that we have little optionality or flexibility.that we have little optionality or flexibility.

Scheduling the “Big 10”Scheduling the “Big 10”Planning and modeling is done days to weeks in Planning and modeling is done days to weeks in advance in order to plan for marketing necessary to advance in order to plan for marketing necessary to adjust load to meet hydraulic objectives.adjust load to meet hydraulic objectives.On the preschedule day, generation “schedules” are On the preschedule day, generation “schedules” are produced by the models. They are sent to the TOP for produced by the models. They are sent to the TOP for planning purposes.planning purposes.The actual scheduling of the Big 10 generation does not The actual scheduling of the Big 10 generation does not really occur until hour ahead; just prior to the WECC really occur until hour ahead; just prior to the WECC interchange ramp.interchange ramp.We have over 2,000 MW of contractual uncertainty up We have over 2,000 MW of contractual uncertainty up until XX:30 each hour and normal load uncertainty until XX:30 each hour and normal load uncertainty beyond that.beyond that.

And once we get into the hour there is wind ! And once we get into the hour there is wind !


Meeting load obligations requires not only Meeting load obligations requires not only capacity but having the fuel in the right place at capacity but having the fuel in the right place at the right time. Complex task.the right time. Complex task. Load variability (Peaking contracts, SLICE, BPA Load variability (Peaking contracts, SLICE, BPA

marketing)marketing)Final Load is not know until XX:40 (or later)Final Load is not know until XX:40 (or later)Lag Times do not always verifyLag Times do not always verify

No water = no generation (limited to inflow only)No water = no generation (limited to inflow only)

Unplanned outagesUnplanned outagesWind – BPA has over 2,700 MW’s of wind in BAWind – BPA has over 2,700 MW’s of wind in BA

Within hour disruption of scheduled gen = disruption of future Within hour disruption of scheduled gen = disruption of future hour fuel supply downstream hour fuel supply downstream

Persistent Imbalance disrupts operation over longer periods.Persistent Imbalance disrupts operation over longer periods.

Germany Denmark

Wind Ramping Event April 27, 2010

Dispatcher Standing Order 216

Public Rate Setting Process on Wind Balancing RateR.O.D. set rate based on meeting 99.5% of eventsbased on statistical study and methodology.

In order to assure ramping events are covered, BPA holds835 MW of INC (upward) reserves1035 MW of DEC (downward) reserves

Wind fleet pays for the service through the rate.

When extreme events cause the wind balancing reserves to be depleted DSO 216 measures are enacted.

Plants are sent signals to feather or otherwise reduce generation to schedule OR to curtail e-tags depending.

Scheduling Hydro Under UncertaintyScheduling Hydro Under Uncertainty ~3,500 MW of contractual and wind uncertainty, differing project

constraints - characteristics - lag times - reservoir factors - H/K - TW limits, etc. make managing the fuel supply a complex problem.

The Current Water YearThe Current Water Year


Chronologic Volume (Jan-Jul in MAF)

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Jan-Jul Vol (MAF)

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Jan-July Volume (MAF)

0102030405060708090

100110120130140150160


Low Water Low Water One of the lowest on Record (Apr EB 68.8)One of the lowest on Record (Apr EB 68.8) Shape of runoff could make things worseShape of runoff could make things worse

Biop has provisions for Low WaterBiop has provisions for Low Water Very prescriptiveVery prescriptive If not enough for Biop Spill we must do If not enough for Biop Spill we must do

minimum generation and spill the remainderminimum generation and spill the remainder No Flexibility on Snake and Lower ColumbiaNo Flexibility on Snake and Lower Columbia

78.64 MAF Jan – Jul @ TDA

76.40 MAF Jan – Jul @ TDA

75.54 MAF Jan – Jul @ TDA 73.55 MAF Jan – Jul @ TDA

Required SpillRequired SpillProject Duration QS 120% TDG MNQS MNQ

T

LWG All Hours 20 k 41 k 6.1 k 11.5 k

LGS All Hours QO Deadband @ 25 k – 35 k 30%** 32 k 7.2 k Hi Crest* 11.5 k

LMN All Hours Gas Cap 24 k 7.9 k 11.5 k

IHR 0500 – 1800 day 1800 – 0500 night Start 45k/TDG:4/3 5/2 5/6 5/12 5/16 5/22 5/28 6/3----------------------------------------------------------- Start 30%/TDG beginning 0500 4/30:4/30 5/4 5/8 5/14 5/20 5/24 6/1 6/5

45k day /Gas cap night-----------------

-30% day /

Gas cap night

95 k 8.4 k 9.5 k

MCN 4/10-6/19 All Hours 40% 145 k 50 k

JDA 4/10-6/19 All HoursAlternate 30/40%. Changes at 0600:30%: 4/28 5/4 5/8 5/16 5/20 5/24 5/30 6/5-----------------------------------------------------------40%: 4/30 4/30 5/6 5/12 5/18 5/22 5/28

30%------------------

40% 120 k 50 k

TDA 4/10-6/30 All Hours 40% 125 k 50 k

BON 4/10-6/20 All Hours 100 k 100 k 75 k 30 k

The Current Water YearThe Current Water YearExtremely ChallengingExtremely Challenging

Ramifications of Min Gen Spill the restRamifications of Min Gen Spill the rest Shape of scheduled generationShape of scheduled generation

Maintaining upward AND downward reservesMaintaining upward AND downward reserves ReservesReserves

QuantitiesQuantities

Location – Fisheries constraints limit LCOL, LSNLocation – Fisheries constraints limit LCOL, LSN WindWind

Location relative to reservesLocation relative to reservesN of John Day – West of McNary – N of HanfordN of John Day – West of McNary – N of Hanford

DSO 216 measuresDSO 216 measures

The Current Water YearThe Current Water YearExtremely ChallengingExtremely Challenging

Coordination will be the key – both internally and Coordination will be the key – both internally and externally.externally.

Spring freshet has begun and we are in better Spring freshet has begun and we are in better shape now than in April.shape now than in April.

Similar low flow conditions are likely to occur in Similar low flow conditions are likely to occur in mid to late August depending on how available mid to late August depending on how available water is requested by salmon managers.water is requested by salmon managers.

BPA General Facts and FiguresBPA General Facts and Figures

7,588 - average annual MW hydro generation 7,588 - average annual MW hydro generation 31 - total hydro projects with varying modeling complexity31 - total hydro projects with varying modeling complexity20,230 MW - total Nameplate hydro Capacity20,230 MW - total Nameplate hydro Capacity18,139 - all time peak generation (2002)18,139 - all time peak generation (2002)45 - types of project/system constraints to be modeled45 - types of project/system constraints to be modeled15,212 - circuit miles of transmission owned by BPA 15,212 - circuit miles of transmission owned by BPA 300,000 - sq miles service area for BPA300,000 - sq miles service area for BPA147 - total wholesale customers147 - total wholesale customers13 - federally recognized tribes and reservations in the 13 - federally recognized tribes and reservations in the basinbasinOver $2 billion spent on fish and wildlife programs Over $2 billion spent on fish and wildlife programs since1978since1978

Questions ?????Questions ?????

Francis HalpinFrancis [email protected](503) 230-7545(503) 230-7545

WECC System Schedulers Meeting Las Vegas, Nevada, May 10 – 11, 2010.

Documents

watershed slide

annual hydrograph slide

storage slide

flood hydrograph slide

hour slide

planning slide

dalles slide

columbia river basin