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Gathering Data & Harvesting Collective Intelligence
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Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

Sep 11, 2014

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Presentation on January 22, 2009, by Michael P Totten, Chief Advisor on Climate and Water at Conservation International, given tot the Los Angeles chapter of Bioneers. Interdisciplinary perspectives on solutions to climate catastrophe threat, species extinction threat, mass poverty, water shortages, oil and resource wars, using the Web tools for generating collective intelligence and social collaboration. Very positive outlook on seemingly intractable and irreversible perils confronting humanity this century. 13 Mb file. No voice over, but one with voice is forthcoming.
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Page 1: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

Gathering Data & Harvesting

Collective Intelligence

Page 2: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

Bias runs deep: Deny, Delay & Do Nothing

Rush Limbaugh CEO Lee RaymondEvangelical James Dobson

Senator James Inhofe (R-OK)

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“The best way to predict your future is to create it!”

Abraham Lincoln

“The long-term threat of climate change, which, if left unchecked, could result in violent conflict, terrible storms, shrinking coastlines, and irreversible catastrophe.”

Barack Obama

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The Virtuous Cycle of Green Innovation

California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/

Page 5: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

4 TRENDS – CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES

FOOD/WATER SHORTAGES

CLIMATE CATASTROPHE

MASS POVERTY

WWW MESH

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www.climateprogress.org/

Climate Solution Resources

www.realclimate.org/ www.aclimateforlife.org/

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Climate Catastrophe

Page 8: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere every 44 hours

1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines

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Page 10: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

Figure shows declining insurance industry capacity to absorb weather-related natural disasters. Curves show ratio of global weather-related property losses to total property/casualty premiums over the past quarter-century, indexed to average 1980 levels. Source: Evan Mills, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab

Losing Nature’s “Insurance Capacity”

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$2.5 trillionalmost a quarter of

the US economy is at risk from the

weatherlarge forest wildfires have tripled and area burned increased >5-fold since the 1980s, burning 5x longer, and wildfire season has lengthened 2/3rd.

Page 12: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

Unintended Consequences – Geo-engineering

A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of hundreds of thousands of years, raising the lurid, but real

threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.

Page 13: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading

… a more illuminating and constructive analysis would bedetermining the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:

"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significantcosts involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction

…A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$300 billion] of national income on the cost of a clean environment."

Weitzman, Martin. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.

Page 14: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights-based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000

Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint

2008

2050

now 45GtCO2

reduce to<10 GtCO2

2100reduce to<4 GtCO2

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3%/yr

19x2%/yr

7x

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agriculture5%

bldgs EE15%

transport EE15%

industry EE15%

solar15%

wind15%

biomass10%

geothermal1%

oil1%

gas2%

coal1%

forests5%

Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions

Assumes:

1) Global economic growth 2-3% per year all century long;

2) sustaining 3% per year efficiency gains;

3) Combined carbon cap & carbon tax

Page 17: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.

Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year

0

5

10

15

20

25

Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use

Billion tons CO2

“Leasing” CO2 Mitigation Services

5 billion tons CO2 per year in mitigation services available in poor nations, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars annually ; and saving well-off nations billions of dollars.

US GHG levels

13 million hectares burned each year

Page 18: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

6th largest extinction – 1000 times the natural background rate

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Research commissioned by the Stern Review, indicates that the direct yields from land converted to farming, including proceeds from the sale of timber, are equivalent to less than $1 per ton of CO2 in many areas currently losing forest, and usually well below $5 per ton.

Avoided Deforestation potentially offers one of the most cost-effective, immediately available, and large-scale carbon mitigation and adaptation options, second only to energy efficiency options.

For example: it will require $40 billion to capture and store1 billion tons of CO2 from coal plants.

The same amount of money would prevent the release of 8 timesthis amount of CO2 through avoided deforestation.

Page 20: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

$-$5

$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50

CCS REDD

Geological storage (CCS) vsEcological storage (REDD)

Carbon Mitigation Cost per ton CO2

U.S. Fossil- fueled Electricity Carbon Offset cost nationally per year

~$60 billion3 ¢ per kWh

~$10 billion0.5 ¢ per kWh

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About $800 billion per year (at 8% of $10 trillion U.S. economy)

100 years of Cumulative Energy Costs at 2.5%/yr GDP Growth■USA $355 trillion (out of total of $4,444 trillion GNP)■GLOBAL $1,422 trillion (out of total $17,774 trillion GWP)

1970 2006

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Envision 18 million coal railcars that would wrap around the world seven times each year.

Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil supertanker shipments per year.

Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.

USA Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75 ExaJoules of Energy Supply

$700 billion per year in energy bill savings

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BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years –113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum.

CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs)

Envision eliminating the need for 13.8 billion coal railcars this

century.

SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800 TW-yrs). Save >$50 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions.

OR, Envision eliminating the

need for 17 million LNG

tanker shipments.

OR, Envision eliminating the need for 10,000 giant offshore oil platforms this century.

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Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html

$1+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 44 Gigaton CO2 Reduction

Page 30: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

$10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value

[source: SafeClimate.net]

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year

6-pak CFLs Dow -Jones Average Bank Account

$

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CFL factories displace Powerplants

source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991

The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will produce lighting services sufficient to displace several billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments used to power less efficient incandescent lamps.

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Less Large Power Plants & MinesMore Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”

Less Coal Power Plants

Less Coal Rail Cars

Less Coal Mines

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Biggest Efficiency Service of Them All:Supplier Chain Factories & Products

Industrial electric motor systems consume 40% of electricity worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in China – over 7 trillion kWh per year.

Retrofit savings of 30%, New savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh.

2 trillion kWh per year savings –equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be built through 2030 worldwide.

$240 billion savings per decade.

$200 to $400 billion benefits per decade in avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx.

Efficiency OutcomesDemand Facts

Support SEEEM (Standards for Energy Efficiency of Electric Motor Systems)

SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive market transformation strategy to promote efficient industrial electric motor systems worldwide

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Public library – North Carolina

Heinz Foundation Green Building, PA

Oberlin College Ecology Center,

Ohio

ZERO NET ENERGY GREEN BUILDINGS

The Costs and Financial Benefits

of Green Buildings, A Report to California’s Sustainable

Building Task Force, Oct. 2003, by

Greg Kats et al.

$500 to $700 per m2 net

present value

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Daylighting could displace 100s GWs

Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights, consume half of a commercial building electricity. Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time lighting, eliminating massive amount of power plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs. Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.

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High-E Windows displacing pipelines

Full use of high performance windows in the U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as well as accrue over $15 billion per year of savings on energy bills.

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Align utility and customer financial interests to capture the vast pool of end-use efficiency,

onsite and distributed energy and water service opportunities.

KEY POLICY – UTILITY DECOUPLINGKEY POLICY – UTILITY DECOUPLING

Dr. Art Rosenfeld Amory Lovins

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New York

California

USA minus CA & NYPer Capital Electricity Consumption

165 GW Coal

Power Plants

Californian’s have net savings of

$1,000 per family

[EPPs]

“Decoupling” & Integrated Resource Planning key to harnessing End-Use “Efficiency Power Plants”For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services

California proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions.

California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).

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Avoids Externalized cost from pollutants between $50 million & $360 million per yearAccrues $67.5 million annual savingsSaves 45 billion gallons watersAvoids Waste generation of 70,000 tons/year of sludge

Avoids significant quantities of toxic mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and other heavy metals

Avoids emitting 2 million tons CO2

Avoids emitting 5,400 tons NOx

Avoids emitting 5,400 tons SO2

Avoids burning 600,000 to 800,000 tons coalEliminates 6,000 to 8,000 railroad car shipments of coal delivered each year

Each 300 MW Conventional Coal Power Plant (CPP) Eliminated by an equivalent Efficiency Power Plant (EPP)

(1.8 billion kWh per year)

Avoided Emissions & Savings per China EPP

[1] Estimated at between 2.7 to 20 cents per kWh by the European Commission, Directorate-General XII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE, ExternE: Externalities of Energy, Methodology Report, 1998, Twww.externe.info/reportex/vol2.pdfT

And EPPs generates several times more jobs per $ of investment

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Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC indcogen

bldg scale cogen

recycled ind cogen

end-use efficiency

Page 41: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC indcogen

bldg scale cogen

recycled ind cogen

end-use efficiency

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Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org

Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services

nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC indcogen

bldg scale cogen

recycled ind cogen

end-use efficiency

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1. Economically affordable2. Safe3. Clean4. Risk is low and manageable5. Resilient and flexible6. Ecologically sustainable7. Environmentally benign8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures10.Endogenous learning capacity11.Robust experience curve for reducing

negative externalities and amplifying positive externalities

12.Uninteresting target for malicious disruption

Desirable attributes of a Smart Energy system

DOZEN CRITERIA

including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?through the entire life cycle?through the entire lifespan?

from financial and price volatility?to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?

no adverse impacts on biodiversity?maintains air, water, soil quality?

adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?low recovery cost and lost time?

intrinsic new productivity opportunities?

scalable innovation possibilities?

off the radar of terrorists, military planners?

Page 44: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

A Defensible Smart Energy Criteria Scoring

Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowastepower

Geo-thermal

Nat gas

Bio-fuels

Oil imports

Coal CCS

nuclearTar sand

Oil shale

Coal to liquids

Coal no

CCS

Promote

CHP + biowastes

Economically AffordableSafeCleanSecureResilient & flexibleEcologically sustainableEnvironmentally benignFails gracefully, not catastroRebounds easily from failuresEndogenous learning capacityRobust experience curvesUninteresting military target

Page 45: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.

Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!

Page 46: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2 million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities.

Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;

Cleaning Up Brownfield

Sites w/ PV solar

Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% of total US electricity from brownfields

Page 47: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial

building in Switzerland

+$11,024 1.702

+$15,373 1.892

NPV ($) BCR PBP (yrs)

Aluminum

+$14,237 2.141

+$18,586 2.331

NPV ($) BCR PBP (yrs)

Polished Stone

ShanghaiBeijingEconomic Measure

Material Replaced

Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)

Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]

Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics

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Reference costs of facade-cladding materialsBIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials.

Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/

Economics of Commercial BIPV

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Mass Poverty

More Absolute Poor than any time in Human History

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Human Development Report 2007/2008 Fighting climate

change: Human solidarity in a divided world

Human Development Report 2003 Millennium Development

Goals: A Compact Among Nations to End Poverty

Human Development Report 2006 Beyond scarcity: Power, poverty and the global water

crisis

www.hdr.undp.org/en/

HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORTS

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More absolute poverty than any time in human history

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Economic Pyramid

Mature markets:>$20,000/yr75-100 million

people

Emerging markets:>$2,000-20,000/yr1.75 billion people

Bottom of PyramidSurvival markets:

<$2,000/yr4 billion people

Page 54: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

Fractal Market ModelCreating a more resilient economy

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Self-similar set, or fractal, a mathematically generated pattern that can be reproducible at any magnification or reduction.

Sierpinski “Pyramid”Fractal Market Model

• Robust Scalability• Long tail markets• Resilience to Fat tail

disruptions• More Virtuous cycles,

less vicious ones• Collective Intelligence

acceleration• Less brittle or vulnerable

to linear, surprise-free, industrial model disasters

• Greater social-ecological linkages

• Harnesses complex adaptive system processes, not rigidly resist them

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Bottom of the Pyramid Growth

Three to four $100 microfinance loans enables most Grameen Bank borrowers to move out of poverty

Creating a World Without Poverty

Social Business and the

future of Capitalism

Page 57: Web Mesh Agrobiodiversity Climate Water And Poverty Solutions 01 09

2 billion people lack safe water

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

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Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach adulthood stunted for good.

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

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4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust physical strength to perform labor -- cost

billions of dollars in lost income to the poor

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

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A new water disinfector for thedeveloping world’s poor

• Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection

• Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1 m3)

• Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water• Reliable, Mature components• Can treat unpressurized water• Rapid throughput: 12 seconds• Low maintenance: 4x per year• No overdose risk• Fail-safe

DESIGN CRITERIA

Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor

WaterHealth Intl deviceAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

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WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs. Other Treatment Options

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

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WaterHealth International

The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

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Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of operating and maintaining the equipment and facility. Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities,” thus creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water to outlying areas. And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.

WaterHealth International

Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf

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Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

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Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

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Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

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Brightening up lifeMicro-utility service provider Mr. Umor, who owns a grocery shop. He bought a solar PV system with 6 CFL lamps. One lights his shop, and he rents the other 5 to nearby shops, increasing income by $12.50/month, paying for entire investment in 40 months.

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Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

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Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

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Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

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http://www.lightingafrica.org/

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Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

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Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

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Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

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Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills

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This is an unique combination of Grameen Bank and Grameen Shakti’sintegrated effort for poverty reduction.

• Solar PV System is being used for mobile phone charging.

• Telephone lady earns US$100 per month from this pay phone.

• The system also help her children for their education

Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti)

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Women are enjoying the hazardless and hassle free lighting system in their daily life.

They are getting opportunities to earn extra money by utilizing their time after dusk by sewing or poultry farming.

Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti)

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Model 1:Entrepreneur install one solar PV system and shares the load with some other neighbors shop.

This micro-utility system has no service charge, rather down payment is only 10%.

In this model owner of the system pays monthly installment to GS and collects load charge (daily or weekly) from the users.

Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti)

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100,000 Solar Home Systems by 2008 in Bangladesh

Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti)

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Rural China High-Efficiency Strawbale Green buildingsBrick house construction is still widely used in many rural areas. Brick factories occupy 1 million acres of land, destroys 150,000 acres of arable land every year, and consumes 100 million tons of coal per year.

The inefficient brick homes consume high levels of coal for heating & cooking, with high pollution levels causing chronic health problems, hundreds of thousands of premature deaths, and reduce crop yields.

RURAL HEALTH OPPORTUNITIES

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FOOD SECURITY & AGROBIODIVERSITY

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COMMUNITY FOODSCAPES & EDIBLE SCHOOLYARDS

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GREEN CITIES & NEIGHBORHOODS

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REGENERATIVE BUILDINGS – NEW & RENEWED

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ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE - LAND, FOOD & WATER

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URBAN LANDSCAPES – EDIBLE & INCREDIBLE

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WILD DIVERSITY & HEIRLOOM SEEDS

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MOBILITY & ACCESS

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Vehicle-to-Grid

Convergences & Emergences

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Electric vehicles with onboard battery storageand bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet providing operating reserves or storage for wind.

Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.

Vehicle-to-Grid PHEVs

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Immense Implications of V-to-Grid

1. National vehicle fleet becomes a vast distribution system of mobile batteries

2. Intermittent solar and wind energy sources become economically attractive because plug-in vehicles provide battery storage

3. Vehicles can recharge batteries using lower cost off-peak power

4. Vehicles can also provide “spinning reserve” in case of load loss, earning income on parked “asset”

5. Dramatic reductions in oil dependency6. Significant reductions in total power plant capacity

needs

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Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis SummaryPHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity

Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.

ENERGY POTENTIALU.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), or

73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average

ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIALA shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day).

OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings

AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)

27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOxnationwide (from higher coal generation).

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Corn ethanol

Cellulosic ethanol

Wind-battery turbine spacing

Wind turbines ground footprint

Solar-battery

Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles

WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES

Wind & Solar experts

Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewableresources in plug-in electric driven vehicles

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By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture.

Combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed for medium growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats.

Food, Fuel, SpeciesTradeoffs?

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Global Web Mesh

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Global Wired Mesh Resources

www.wikinomics.com/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Networks

http://www.shirky.com/

http://web2expo.blip.tv/file/855937/

And incredible video at:And incredible video at:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgYE75gkzkM

And incredible video at:

www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgYE75gkzkM

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5000 days ago Pre-Web Pre-Commercial Internet

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published content

published contentuser

generated content

user generated

content

“the mostly read only Web” “the wildly read write Web”

45 million global users 1 billion+ global users

collectiveintelligence

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The WIKIPEDIA MODEL: In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees, Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the Encyclopedia Britannica, Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 80,000 volunteer editors and content authors, Translating content into 150+ languages, and Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.

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Cognitive Surplus

Large-scale distributed work-force projects are impractical in theory, but doable in reality.

The Internet-connected population worldwide watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year.

One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year worth of peer participation.

www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/looking-for-the-mouse.html

http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/

Clay Shirkey’s

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2010-2012

Web3.0+

1 trillion sites

published content

Semantically-linked RW webCollectiveintelligence Smart Grid

3 billion global users

User generated content

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5000 days ago Pre-Web Pre-Commercial Internet5000 days from now Global Cloud Network

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Classifying user-generated informationwhere every click is a datum

Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

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A user interacts with items, whichhave associated metadata

Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

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Ways users provide valuable information through their interactions

Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

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Some ways to harness collective intelligence in your application

Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

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Different content types

Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

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Different content types (continued)

Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

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Use of Wikis

Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

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Content-based analysis, Collaborative filtering & Computing similarities

Basics of algorithms for applying Collective Intelligence

From User ClickstreamsRepresenting intelligence from unstructured text

The dot products of Multi-dimensional term vectors

Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008

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Harnessing Collective Intelligence to:Prevent Climate Catastrophe

Avert Mass Species ExtinctionPromote Green Prosperity & Well-being

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UNINTENDED MOLECULAR GEOENGINEERINGWrapping Our Minds Around GHG Molecules

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GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment

LEED Certified Green Buildings

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GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment

LEED Certified Green BuildingsCA

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Laguna Honda Hospital

GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment

LEED Certified Green Buildings

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GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment

LEED Certified Green Buildings

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Waste as Nutrient – Information Bitstream

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Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West

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Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West

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Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions

Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar panel locations.

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What is a Complete Street?

A Complete Street is safe, comfortable and convenient for travel via automobile, foot,

bicycle, and transit.

www.completestreets.org

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Portland Oregon 1990Bike lanes encourage bike commuting

0 - 2%

2 - 3%3 - 5%

5 - 8%

8 - 10%10+%

Bike Commute Mode Split

City of Portland

Dept. of Transportation

Black lines show 1990 bikeway network...

…Colors show 1990 mode splits (by census tract)

www.completestreets.org

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Portland Oregon 2000Bike lanes encourage bike commuting

0 - 2%

2 - 3%3 - 5%

5 - 8%

8 - 10%10+%

Bike Commute Mode Split

City of Portland

Dept. of Transportation

Black lines show 2000 bikeway network...

…Colors show 2000 mode splits (by census tract)

www.completestreets.org

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Complete canopy closureTrees planted sufficiently apart in a planting strip 10 feet wide; this spacing allowed for the crowns of individual trees to touch, encouraging development of a more natural upright form; The 10' wide planting strip allowed the trunk flare to develop appropriately State College, Pennsylvania

Success

Saint Augustine, FloridaSeattle, Washington

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Water Shortages

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WATER

Chinese Paddlefish(21 feet long)

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21st Century Mega Freshwater Threats

>85% Freshwater Consumption – Blue and Green Water - AGRICULTURE

>40% Freshwater Use – Thermal & Hydroelectric POWER PLANTS

Many of the same or similar utility and energy policies, rules, regulations, incentives addressing climate change threat are also applicable to freshwater threats from power plants

CLIMATE IMPACTS – on Blue and Green Water systems

Aggravated by global trading expansion in virtual water imports and exports

Failure to stabilize atmospheric emissions under 450ppm could lead to 1/3rd decline in global agriculture latter half this century – leading to more land conversion and water consumption

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World’s Water 2008-2009

More with Less World’s Water 2006-2007

www.worldwater.org/ www.worldwater.org//www.pacinst.org/

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Water within living organisms 1%

Rivers 1%Atmospheric water vapor 8%

Soil moisture 38%

Lakes 52%

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• Humanity consumes half of global freshwater flow

• No major river in the world is without existing or planned hydroelectric dams

• 2/3 of the freshwater flowing to the oceans is controlled by dams

Yet….

Global Water Consumption

579

1900 1950 2000 2025

1,382

3,973

5,235

Increasing freshwater use

Total annual water withdrawal historical & projected, in cubic kilometers

Clark, Robin & Jannet King, The Water Atlas, New Press, 2004.

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• 1 billion people without safe water

• 4 billion yet to be born will need additional freshwater in decades to come

Immense Water Shortages

0.5 billion

4-5 billion

May live in countries that are

chronically short of water

lived in countries

chronically short of water

2000 2050

total population6 billion

projected population10 billion

Postel, S. L., G. C. Daily, and P. R. Ehrlich, 1996, Human appropriation of renewable fresh water, Science 271:785-788, www.sciencemag.org/; Gleick PH, et al. 2003, The world's water 2002–2003, www.pacinst.org/; Jackson, Robert B., et al., Water in a Changing World, Issues in Ecology, Technical Report, Ecological Applications, 11(4), 2001, pp. 1027–1045, Ecological Society of America, www.esapubs.org/

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Climate Impact on Agricultural Productivity

William Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture, Impacts by Country 2007.

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The efficiency of irrigation techniques is low and globally up to 1500 trillion liters (~400 trillion gallons) of water are wasted annually

Immense Water Waste

WWF, Dam Right! Rivers at Risk, Dams & Future of Freshwater Ecosystems, 2003

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Globally, nearly 70% of water withdrawals go to irrigated agriculture, yet conventional irrigation can waste as much as 80% of the water.

Such waste is driven by misplaced subsidies and artificially low water prices, often unconnected to the amount of water used.

Drip irrigation systems for water intensive crops such as cotton can mean water savings of up to 80% compared to conventional flood irrigation systems, but these techniques are out of reach for most small farmers.

Currently drip irrigation accounts for only 1% of the world’s irrigated area.

Soft Water PathMore productive, Less cost, Less damage

Gleick, Peter H., Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century, State of the Planet Special, Science, Nov. 28, 2003 V. 302, pp.1524-28, www.pacinst.org/

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USA 2483 m3/cap/yr

WORLD 1243 m3/cap/yr

INDIA 980 m3/cap/yr

CHINA 702 m3/cap/yr

water footprints of the USA, World avg, China and India Period: 1997–2001

A. Y. Hoekstra · A. K. Chapagain, Water footprints of nations: Water use by people as a function of their consumption pattern, Water Resources Management, (2007) 21:35–48

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In 2000, an estimated 195,000 Mgal/d, or 219 million acre-feet per year, were withdrawn for thermoelectric power.• The least efficient water-cooled plants use as much as 50 gallons of water per (kWh.• Water quality is affected by water use at power plants because of the effects of the temperature of discharged cooling water and the conditioning agents used to treat cooling water

USA Water Use

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Figures of MeritGreat Plains area

1,200,000 mi2

Provide 100% U.S. electricity400,000 2MW wind turbines

Platform footprint6 mi2

Large Wyoming Strip Mine>6 mi2

Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2

Still available for farming and prairie restoration

90%+ (34,000 mi2)

CO2 U.S. electricity sector40%

95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains

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$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250

windpower farm

non-wind farm

US Farm Revenues per hectare

govt. subsidy $0 $60windpower royalty $200 $0farm commodity revenues $50 $64

windpower farm non-wind farm

Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/

Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income

Crop revenue Govt. subsidy

Wind profits

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The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)

Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.

Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems

How?

Wind Farm Royalties – Could Doublefarm/ranch income with 30x less land area

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1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);

Potential Synergisms

2) Re-introducing free-ranging bison into these prairie grasslands --which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.

Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:

Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered

Droughts

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Reverse Osmosis estimates considered valid for China today ranges from a cost of $0.60 per m3

(1000 liters) for brackish and wastewater desalination to $1 per m3

for seawater desalination by RO.

Extrapolating from technological trends, and the promise of ongoing innovations in lower-cost, higher performance membranes, seawater desalination costs will continue to fall. The average cost may decline to $0.30 per m3 in 2025.

Reverse Osmosis (RO) of Wastewater

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For comparison, China’s average water prices are about $0.20 to $0.25 per m3 for domestic and industrial use, and $0.34 per m3 for commercial use, to a high of $0.60/m3

in Tianjin and Dalian.

China’s State Council is moving to raise the price of urban water supply in Beijing to $0.72 per m3.

This reverse-osmosis plant in Ashkelon, Israel, will eventually turn out 100 million cubic meters of fresh water a year, at a cost of $0.53 cents per m3, the cheapest ever by a desalination facility.

RO of Wastewater into Clean Water

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Desalination of wastewater has double benefits: it reduces contaminated discharges directly into rivers, and instead, economically expands the city’s freshwater supplies rather than importing remote water resources.

China’s total wastewater discharges annually exceed 60 km3,(16 trillion gallons), and less than one-seventh of this wastewater was treated as of the late 1990s.

Close to 600 million Chinese people have water supplies that are contaminated by animal and human waste.

Harnessing 30 GW of cogeneration available in cities and industrial facilities potentially could operate reverse osmosis technologies to purify these wastewaters, while also providing ancillary energy services like space and water heating & cooling, etc.

RO & CHP Synergism for Clean Water

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And the Slides Go On

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A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered

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NOW UNSAFE, UNSECURE, UNSUSTAINABLEFirst documented in the 1980 Dept. of Defense funded report

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www.armsflow.org/

Arms Flow -- $1 trillion per year

1950 2005

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Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.

E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/

Closing the Loop – Reducing Use of Virgin Resources & Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients

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Environmental/ health

externalities $10+ trillion

Military/ Security

externalities $10+ trillion

USA Energy expenditures 1975-2000

$25 trillion energy costs

$325 billion Dept of Energy

4% for all efficiency & 5% all renewables

Current Public R&D Priorities Do Not RepresentCustomer-focused, Retail-driven Solutions

$8 trillion losses price

volatlity

Status Quo Retail-driven Scenario

2/3 efficiency

solar, wind biofuels

• Lower energy costs

• Lower price volatility

• Lower Environmental & Health externalities

• Lower military & security externalities

DOE budget

Priorities PrioritiesOutcomes OutcomesOil industryUtility industryCoal industryNatural gas industryNuclear industryLarge Hydro industry

ConsumersRetailersSuppliersManufacturersNatural resource sector

High energy costsVolatile PricesSecurity vulnerabilityHigher pollution levelsLong-term environmental damage

• Shift of capital from utility sector to retail sector

• Greening supply chain out of avoided utility costs

• Tax-free reductions in air & water pollution

2007-2030

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What a Retail-oriented R&D Strategy Can DoSupporting long-term stable funding for basic and applied R&D of energy, water and resource efficiency in the residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural sectors, plus combined heat and power (CHP), solar photovoltaics, windpower, and cellulosic biofuels, ensures a continuous pipeline of new production methods for commercializing higher performance, lower cost and less polluting goods.

Supporting continuous updating of Technology Road Maps ensures identifying new trends and emergent opportunities.