War on Linearity

The (necessary) The (necessary) war on linearity: war on linearity: One engineer’s One engineer’s

(unusual)(unusual) life’s work. life’s work.

tom peters/1026.2006tom peters/1026.2006

Think!Think!vs.vs.

do!do!

““Apparently our society, Apparently our society, not unlike the Greeks with not unlike the Greeks with their Delphic oracles, takes their Delphic oracles, takes great comfort in believing great comfort in believing that very talented ‘seers’ that very talented ‘seers’ removed from the hurly-removed from the hurly-burly world of reality can burly world of reality can

foretell coming events.”foretell coming events.” —Len Sayles/Columbia (from Henry Mintzberg, The Rise

and Fall of Strategic Planning)

“Nothing is more

dangerous in war than

theoreticians.”

—Marshall Petain (John Mosier, The Blitzkrieg Myth, “War as Pseudoscience: 1920-1939”)

The (Strange) Case of Peter Drucker & Michael Porter vs. The “Non-linearists”

HERBERT SIMON. HERBERT SIMON. (Administrative Behavior.) (Administrative Behavior.) JAMES MARCH. KARL WEICK. JAMES MARCH. KARL WEICK. (The (The

Social Psychology of Organizing.) Social Psychology of Organizing.) EUGENE WEBB. EUGENE WEBB. Henry MINTZBERG. Henry MINTZBERG. (The Rise and Fall of (The Rise and Fall of

Strategic Planning.)Strategic Planning.) JAMES UTTERBACK. JAMES UTTERBACK. THOMAS KUHN. THOMAS KUHN. (The Structure of Scientific (The Structure of Scientific

Revolutions.)Revolutions.) CHARLES LINDBLOM. CHARLES LINDBLOM. Daniel goleman. INNOVATION Daniel goleman. INNOVATION BIOGRAPHERS.*BIOGRAPHERS.* (*Transcontinental Railroad,

Electrification, Radio, Television, Containerization, DNA,

Computers, Military History, Etc.) MOST MOST POLITICAL SCIENTISTS. SILICON POLITICAL SCIENTISTS. SILICON

VALLEY. Etc.VALLEY. Etc.

““This book is about luck disguised and This book is about luck disguised and perceived as non-luck (that is, skills) perceived as non-luck (that is, skills)

and more generally randomness and more generally randomness disguised and perceived as non-disguised and perceived as non-

randomness. It manifests itself in the randomness. It manifests itself in the shape of the lucky fool, defined as a shape of the lucky fool, defined as a

person who benefited from a person who benefited from a disproportionate share of luck but disproportionate share of luck but

attributed his success to some other, attributed his success to some other, generally precise reason.”generally precise reason.” — —Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and

the Markets, by Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Satisficing. Satisficing. Bounded rationality. Bounded rationality.

Technology of Technology of foolishness. foolishness.

Muddling through.Muddling through.

The Mess Is the Message! Period!An Economic Interpretation of the ConstitutionAn Economic Interpretation of the Constitution

of the United States of the United States —Charles Beard (1913)

The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World The Box: How the Shipping Container Made the World Smaller and the World Economy BiggerSmaller and the World Economy Bigger —Marc Levinson

Tube: The Invention of TelevisionTube: The Invention of Television —David & Marshall Fisher

Empires of Light: Edison, Tesla, Westinghouse, Empires of Light: Edison, Tesla, Westinghouse, and the Race to Electrify the Worldand the Race to Electrify the World —Jill Jonnes

The Soul of a New MachineThe Soul of a New Machine —Tracy Kidder

Rosalind Franklin: The Dark Lady of DNARosalind Franklin: The Dark Lady of DNA —Brenda Maddox

The Blitzkrieg MythThe Blitzkrieg Myth —John Mosier

“Linearist”: Plan it!Plan it!“Non-linearist”: Try it!Try it!

““Recently I asked three corporate Recently I asked three corporate executives what decisions they had made executives what decisions they had made in the last year that would not have been in the last year that would not have been

made were it not for their corporate made were it not for their corporate plans. All had difficulty identifying one plans. All had difficulty identifying one such decision. Since all of the plans are such decision. Since all of the plans are

marked ‘secret’ or ‘confidential,’marked ‘secret’ or ‘confidential,’ I asked I asked them how their comthem how their comppetitors mietitors migght ht benefit frombenefit from p possession of their ossession of their

pplans. Each answered with lans. Each answered with embarrassment that their embarrassment that their

comcomppetitors would not benefitetitors would not benefit.”.” —Russell Ackoff (from Henry Mintzberg,

The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning)

“This is so simple it sounds stupid, but it is amazing how few oil people really

understand that you only you only find oil if you find oil if you drill wellsdrill wells.. You may

think you’re finding it when you’re drawing maps and

studying logs, but you have to drill.”

Source: The Hunters, by John Masters, Canadian O & G wildcatter

““It is It is notnot the the strongest of the strongest of the

species that survives, species that survives, nornor the most the most

intelligent, but intelligent, but the the one most responsive one most responsive to changeto change.”.” —Charles Darwin

“Linearist”: think!think!“Non-linearist”: do!do!

““ExecutionExecution is is thethe j jobob of the of the

businessbusiness leaderleader.”.” —Larry Bossidy—Larry Bossidy & Ram

Charan/ Execution: The Discipline of Getting Things Done

Excellence1982: The Bedrock “Eight Basics”

1. 1. A Bias for ActionA Bias for Action2. Close to the Customer2. Close to the Customer3. Autonomy and Entrepreneurship3. Autonomy and Entrepreneurship4. Productivity Through People4. Productivity Through People5. Hands On, Value-Driven5. Hands On, Value-Driven6. Stick to the Knitting6. Stick to the Knitting7. Simple Form, Lean Staff7. Simple Form, Lean Staff8. Simultaneous Loose-Tight Properties 8. Simultaneous Loose-Tight Properties

““We have a We have a ‘strategic plan.’ ‘strategic plan.’ It’s called It’s called doing doing thingsthings.”.” — Herb Kelleher

“Linearist”:

hypothesize!hypothesize!“Non-linearist”:

experiment!experiment!

““We made mistakes, of course. Most of them were We made mistakes, of course. Most of them were omissions we didn’t think of when we initially wrote the omissions we didn’t think of when we initially wrote the

software. software. We fixed them by doing it over and over, We fixed them by doing it over and over, again and againagain and again.. We do the same today. While our We do the same today. While our competitors are still sucking their thumbs trying to competitors are still sucking their thumbs trying to

make the design perfect, we’re already on prototype make the design perfect, we’re already on prototype

versionversion ##55.. By the time our rivals areBy the time our rivals are

ready with wires and screws, we are on versionready with wires and screws, we are on version

##1010.. It gets back to It gets back to

planning versus actingplanning versus acting: : We act We act from day onefrom day one; ; others plan how others plan how toto planplan——for monthsfor months.”.” —Bloomberg by —Bloomberg by

BloombergBloomberg

““ExperimenExperiment t

fearlessly”fearlessly”Source: BW0821.06, Type A Organization Strategies/

“How to Hit a Moving Target”—Tactic #1

“Linearist”: failure = failure = unnecessaryunnecessary

“Non-linearist”:

failure = lifefailure = life

““Fail . Forward. Fail . Forward. Fast.”Fast.”

High Tech CEO, Pennsylvania

“Fail faster. “Fail faster. Succeed Succeed Sooner.”Sooner.”

David Kelley/IDEO

“It is generally much easier to kill an

organization than change it substantially.”

—Kevin Kelly, Out of Control

““RewardReward excellent failures.

PunishPunish mediocre

successes.”Phil Daniels, Sydney exec

Message/Implication: Message/Implication: go for itgo for it!

C.E.O.C.E.O. to

C.D.O.C.D.O.

“Linearist”: a>b*a>b*“Non-linearist”: b>a**b>a**

*Attitude shapes behavior**Behavior shapes attitude

“Linearist”: deliberate!*deliberate!*

“Non-linearist”: relentless!relentless!****

* “Do it right the first time” (Hero: Phil Crosby) * “Do it right the first time” (Hero: Phil Crosby) **Never retreat (Hero: U.S. Grant)**Never retreat (Hero: U.S. Grant)

RelentlessRelentless:: “One of “One of

my superstitions had always been my superstitions had always been when I started to go anywhere or when I started to go anywhere or

to do anything,to do anything, notnot to to turnturn backback ,, or stop, or stop,

until the thing intended was until the thing intended was accomplished.”accomplished.” —Grant

““Success seems to Success seems to be largely a be largely a

mattermatter

of of hanginghanging onon after others after others have let go.”have let go.” —William

Feather, author

“Linearist”: logical!logical!“Non-linearist”:

passionate!passionate!

““Nothing is so Nothing is so contagious as contagious as enthusiasm.”enthusiasm.”

—Samuel Taylor Coleridge

““People want to be part People want to be part of something larger of something larger

than themselves. They than themselves. They want to be part of want to be part of

something they’re really something they’re really proud of, that they’ll proud of, that they’ll

fight for, sacrifice for , fight for, sacrifice for , trust.”trust.”

—Howard Schultz, Starbucks (IBD/09.05)

“Linearist”: give me give me genius!genius!

“Non-linearist”: give give me luck!me luck!

““This book is about luck disguised and perceived as This book is about luck disguised and perceived as non-luck (that is, skills) and more generally randomness non-luck (that is, skills) and more generally randomness

disguised and perceived as non-randomness. It disguised and perceived as non-randomness. It manifests itself in the shape of the lucky fool, definedmanifests itself in the shape of the lucky fool, defined

as a person who benefited from a disproportionate as a person who benefited from a disproportionate share of luck but attributed his success to some other, share of luck but attributed his success to some other,

generally precise reason.”generally precise reason.”

“We underestimate the share of randomness in just “We underestimate the share of randomness in just about everything, a point that might not merit a about everything, a point that might not merit a

book—except when it is the specialist who is the foolbook—except when it is the specialist who is the fool of all fools.” of all fools.”

“Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild “Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.”success is attributable to variance.”

Source: Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and the Markets —Nassim Nicholas Taleb

“Linearist”: spotless spotless academic academic record!record!

“Non-linearist”: a.d.d.a.d.d.

“Linearist”:

measured pace!measured pace!“Non-linearist”:

Tempo! Tempo! Tempo! Tempo! Tempo!Tempo!

““You miss 100You miss 100 percent of the percent of the

shots you never shots you never take.”take.” —Wayne—Wayne Gretzky

“the FedFedExEx EconomyEconomy”

—headline/New York Times/10.08.05

“Any3”: Anything/ Anything/ Anywhere/ Anywhere/ AnytimeAnytime

“Linearist”: think! Plan! think! Plan! (r.(r.a.a.f.*)f.*)

“Non-linearist”: Try it! Try it! Screw it up! Fix it! Screw it up! Fix it!

Try it again! Try it again! (r.(r.f.f.a.**) a.**)

*Ready. *Ready. Aim.Aim. Fire. Fire.**ready. **ready. Fire.Fire. Aim. (Or, circa 2006: Aim. (Or, circa 2006: fire. Fire. Fire.fire. Fire. Fire.))

READY.READY.FIRE!FIRE!AIM.AIM.

Ross Perot (vs “Aim! Aim! Aim!” /EDS vs GM/1985)

S.A.V.: screw S.A.V.: screw around around

vigorously!vigorously!The “only” possible response to former Xerox chief Paul

Allaire’s “We are in a brawl with no rules.”

Cheap Shot

“Linearist”: minimize minimize cost.cost.

“Non-linearist”: maximize maximize revenue.revenue.

“Linearist”: marketing marketing rules.rules.

“Non-linearist”: sales sales rules.rules.

““Everyone lives Everyone lives by by

sellinselling g something.”something.”

—Robert Louis Stevenson

““Analysts … preferred cost cuttingAnalysts … preferred cost cutting, as long as they could see two or three years of EPS growth. I

preached revenue and the analysts’ eyes would glaze over. Now revenue is ‘in’ because so many got caught, and

earnings went to hell. They said, They said, ‘Oh my gosh, you ‘Oh my gosh, you need revenues to need revenues to

grow earnings over grow earnings over time.’ time.’

Well, Duh!Well, Duh!”” —Dick Kovacevich, Wells

Fargo

CCRRO*

*Chief Revenue Officer

“Linearist”

Background: Background: planning, marketing planning, marketing

& finance.& finance.“Non-linearist”

background:background: sales & operations. sales & operations.

““Operations Operations isis policy.”policy.” —Fred Malek (1974)

“Execution “Execution isis strategy.”strategy.” —TP (1983)

“Linearist”

likes: ideas.likes: ideas.“Non-linearist”

likes: people.likes: people.

““Leaders Leaders

‘‘dodo’’ people. people.

Period.”Period.” —Anon.

““It was much later that I realized It was much later that I realized Dad’s secret. He gained respect by Dad’s secret. He gained respect by giving it. He talked and listened to giving it. He talked and listened to

the fourth-grade kids in Spring Valley the fourth-grade kids in Spring Valley who shined shoes the same way he who shined shoes the same way he talked and listened to a bishop or a talked and listened to a bishop or a

college president.college president. He was He was seriously interested in seriously interested in

who you were and what who you were and what you had to sayyou had to say.”.”Sara Lawrence-Lightfoot, Respect

““The The [Union senior][Union senior] officers rode past the officers rode past the Confederates smugly without any sign Confederates smugly without any sign of recognition except by one. ‘When of recognition except by one. ‘When

GeneralGeneral GrantGrant reached the line of reached the line of ragged, filthy, bloody, despairing ragged, filthy, bloody, despairing

prisoners strung out on each side of prisoners strung out on each side of the bridge, he lifted his hat and held it the bridge, he lifted his hat and held it over his head until he passed the last over his head until he passed the last man of that living funeral cortege. He man of that living funeral cortege. He was the only officer in that whole train was the only officer in that whole train

who recognized us as being on the who recognized us as being on the face of the earth.’*”face of the earth.’*”

*quote within a quote from diary of a Confederate soldier

“Linearist”

likes: parts.likes: parts.“Non-linearist”

likes: wholes.likes: wholes.

“The Mexican Sierra has 17 plus 15 plus 9 spines in the dorsal fin. These can easily be counted. But if the sierra strikes on the line so that our hands are burned, if the

fish sounds and nearly escapes and finally comes in over the rail, his colors pulsing and his tail beating the air, a

whole new relational externality has come into being—an entity which is more than the sum of the fish plus the

fisherman. The only way to count the spines of the sierra unaffected by this second relational reality is to sit in a

laboratory, open an evil-smelling jar, remove a stiff colorless fish from the formalin solution, count the spines

and write the truth. There you have recorded a reality which

cannot be assailed—probably the least important reality concerning the fish or yourself,. … It is good to know

what you are doing . The man with this pickled fish has set down one truth and recorded in his experience many

lies. The fish is not that color, that texture, that dead, nor does he smell that way.” —John Steinbeck

“Linearist”

office: walls.office: walls.“Non-linearist”

office: none.office: none.

“Linearist”

style: meetings.style: meetings.“Non-linearist”

style: m.b.w.a.* style: m.b.w.a.* *Managing by wandering around*Managing by wandering around

“Linearist”

reads: michael porter. reads: michael porter. Peter drucker.*Peter drucker.*

“Non-linearist”

reads: waterman & reads: waterman & peters.peters. Tom clancy.** Tom clancy.**

*Michael & peter*Michael & peter**Bob & tom & tom**Bob & tom & tom

“Linearist”

reads: michael porter. reads: michael porter. Peter drucker.Peter drucker.

“Non-linearist”

reads: doesn’treads: doesn’t

“Linearist”

preferred baseball preferred baseball score: 1-0.score: 1-0.

“Non-linearist”

preferred baseball preferred baseball score: 11-9.score: 11-9.

“Linearist”

preferred football preferred football score: 7-0.score: 7-0.

“Non-linearist”

preferred football preferred football score: 41-38.score: 41-38.

“Linearist”

criminal record: criminal record: none.none.

“Non-linearist”

criminal record: criminal record: disorderly conduct.disorderly conduct.Chronic jaywalking.Chronic jaywalking.

“Linearist”

drives: lincoln town drives: lincoln town car. Ford explorer car. Ford explorer

(weekends).(weekends).

“Non-linearist”

drives: bmw. Harley-drives: bmw. Harley-davidson davidson (weekends).(weekends).

The (Strange) Case of Peter Drucker & Michael Porter vs. The “Non-linearists”

HERBERT SIMON. HERBERT SIMON. (Administrative Behavior.) (Administrative Behavior.) JAMES MARCH. KARL WEICK. JAMES MARCH. KARL WEICK. (The (The

Social Psychology of Organizing.) Social Psychology of Organizing.) EUGENE WEBB. EUGENE WEBB. Henry MINTZBERG. Henry MINTZBERG. (The Rise and Fall of (The Rise and Fall of

Strategic Planning.)Strategic Planning.) JAMES UTTERBACK. JAMES UTTERBACK. THOMAS KUHN. THOMAS KUHN. (The Structure of Scientific (The Structure of Scientific

Revolutions.)Revolutions.) CHARLES LINDBLOM. CHARLES LINDBLOM. Daniel goleman. INNOVATION Daniel goleman. INNOVATION BIOGRAPHERS.*BIOGRAPHERS.* (*Transcontinental Railroad,

Electrification, Radio, Television, Containerization, DNA,

Computers, Military History, Etc.) MOST MOST POLITICAL SCIENTISTS. SILICON POLITICAL SCIENTISTS. SILICON

VALLEY. Etc.VALLEY. Etc.

“Never forget Never forget implementationimplementation ,, boys. boys. In our work, it’s what I In our work, it’s what I

call the call the ‘‘last 98 last 98 percentpercent’’ of the client of the client puzzle.”puzzle.” —Al McDonald, former Managing

Director, McKinsey & Co, to a project team that included TP

YouYou only only findfind oiloil if if youyou drilldrill wellswells..

—John Masters, Canadian O & G wildcatter

Worth.Worth.The.The.

hassle.hassle.

Some StuffSome Stuff

**Hard is soft. Soft is hard. Social stuff. Emotional stuff. Good stuff. Hard is soft. Soft is hard. Social stuff. Emotional stuff. Good stuff. **Mess = Normal = Reality. Rationality = Delusional. (Design Mess = Normal = Reality. Rationality = Delusional. (Design accordingly.)accordingly.)**Failure = Normal = Good. (“Reward excellent failures. PunishFailure = Normal = Good. (“Reward excellent failures. Punish mediocre successes.”) mediocre successes.”)**Do > Think. Act > Talk. Action bias!!!! Experiment!! Do > Think. Act > Talk. Action bias!!!! Experiment!! DecentralizationDecentralization = Holy writ = More independent tries. Implementation-Execution. = Holy writ = More independent tries. Implementation-Execution.**Strategic planning, limits thereto. Severe.Strategic planning, limits thereto. Severe.**Severe limits to scale advantage. Mega-mergers = Bad = Stupid.Severe limits to scale advantage. Mega-mergers = Bad = Stupid.**“Built to last.” Why???????????? Try: Built to change the world.“Built to last.” Why???????????? Try: Built to change the world.**People first! People Power! HR (SHOULD) rule!People first! People Power! HR (SHOULD) rule!**Women’s world!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Market. Wealth. Leadership.)Women’s world!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (Market. Wealth. Leadership.)**Aesthetics! (Design primacy.) (Grace.)Aesthetics! (Design primacy.) (Grace.)**EXCELLENCE!EXCELLENCE!**MBWA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!MBWA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!**Don’t over-complicate. (MBWA, Product, People, Action …)Don’t over-complicate. (MBWA, Product, People, Action …)**Educate for Risk-taking, Creativity.Educate for Risk-taking, Creativity.**B-schools suck. Teach all … except what’s important. D-School = Cool.B-schools suck. Teach all … except what’s important. D-School = Cool.**Healthcare’s Big Three: Quality. Prevention. Wellness.Healthcare’s Big Three: Quality. Prevention. Wellness.**R > C. (Sell! Sell! Sell!) R > C. (Sell! Sell! Sell!) **Free markets work. Free trade works. Rise of India-China = Good Free markets work. Free trade works. Rise of India-China = Good thing. thing. **Brand You. Self-reliance!!!!!!!!!!!! Liberation!!!!Brand You. Self-reliance!!!!!!!!!!!! Liberation!!!!**Survival = PSF/Professional Service Firm “mindset.”Survival = PSF/Professional Service Firm “mindset.”**Fun! (“Cool” is Cool.)Fun! (“Cool” is Cool.)**Service-obsessed! (“Raving fans.”)Service-obsessed! (“Raving fans.”)**Passion-Exuberance-Enthusiasm. “Hot” Language. WOW! Insanely Passion-Exuberance-Enthusiasm. “Hot” Language. WOW! Insanely great!great!