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Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand
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Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Dec 30, 2015

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Page 1: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change

Suppakorn ChinvannoSEA START RC

Chulalongkorn UniversityThailand

Page 2: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Outline:

• Background

• Objective & Scope of study

• Study sites

• Method

• Finding (preliminary)

• Impact of climate change on rice production

• Rain-fed farmer vulnerability analysis

Remarks:• Surveyed data still need to be validated and verified• Analysis on Thailand survey is only partially analyzed• Adaptation options is to be further evaluated

Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C

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Page 3: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Background

• Part of AIACC AS07 Regional Study: Southeast Asia Regional Vulnerability to Changing Water Resource and Extreme Hydrological Events due to Climate Change

• Joint research effort by• Suppakorn Chinvanno1

• Boontium Lersupavithnapa2

• Somkith Boulidam3

• Thavone Inthavong4

• Chitnucha Budhaboon5

1 Southeast Asia START Regional Center, Chulalongkorn University, Thailand

2 Faculty of Agriculture, Ubonratchathani University, Ubon Ratchathani,Thailand3 Faculty of Social Science, National University of Laos , Vientiane, Lao PDR4 National Agriculture and Forestry Research Institute, Lao PDR5 Rice Research Center, Thailand

Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C

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Page 4: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Climate Variability Climate Change Scenario

Changes in yield of rice production

Coping capacity

Vulnerability Vulnerability

Sustainable livelihood

sufficient

Adaptation

yes

nonew

expand

Changes in yield of rice production scenarios

Objectives: Pilot study to identify & characterize vulnerability & adaptation to climate change impact of rain-fed farmer and build regional capacity & network of researchers

• Who will vulnerable?• How?• How did they

response to the past climate variability?

• Can this cope with future change?

• If not, what to do about future?

Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C

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Scope:

Page 5: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Study Sites:

Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C

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Thailand: Ubonratchathani Province, covering 18 villages in 2 districts and devided into:• Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption • Zone 2: Lowland along river – flood risk area – commerci

al rice• Zone 3: Upland – commercial rice – rainfed only• Zone 4: Intensive commercial rice – rainfed only• Zone 5: Partly upland rice – convert from local rice to co

mmercial rice – rainfed only – high risk in rainfall distribution

Lao PDR: Savannakhet Province, covering 4 villages in Songkhone District

Page 6: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Finding: Preliminary result

Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C

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• Survey data still need to be validated and verified• Analysis on Thailand survey is only partially analyzed• Adaptation options is to be further evaluated

Page 7: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Simulated Rice Yield under Different Climate Scenarios in Savannakhet

Province, Lao PDR

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

1xCO2 (1980-1984) 1.5xCO2 (2040-2044) 2xCO2 (2066-2070)

Climate Scenarios

Yie

ld(t

/ha)

Min

Max

Ave

Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture:

Climate impact on rain-fed rice production

Simulated yield is done using 5 years climate condition under each CO2 scenarios and average the results

Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR

Page 8: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture:

Climate impact on rain-fed rice production

Simulated rice yield (ton/ha)

Climate scenario Min Max Ave % change from ba seline year

1xCO2 919.6 5974.6 2497.4  

1.5xCO2 866.2 5470.0 2355.0 -5.7%

2xCO2 1021.8 5877.4 2493.3 -0.2%

Savannakhet Province, Lao PDR

Page 9: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture:

Climate impact on rain-fed rice production

Simulated rice yields under different climate scenarios in 3 regions in Thailand     Selected climate scenarios: by annual rainfall

  Dry Year Median Year Wet Year

 

Yield SD % chang e from ba

seline year

Yield SD % change f rom baseli ne year

Yield SD % change from base line year

    kg ha-1   kg ha-1   kg ha-1  

Northern Thailand: 1.0CO2 2685 537   2340 399   2781 638  

Chiang Rai Province

1.5CO2 2834 480 5.55% 2678 480 14.44% 2700 574 -2.91%

  2.0CO2 2553 875 -4.92% 3402 1104 45.38% 3248 975 16.79%

North Eastern Thailand:

1.0CO2 2544 557   2459 591   2635 1083 

Sakonnakorn Province

1.5CO2 2644 887 3.93% 2257 617 -8.21% 2355 842 -10.63%

  2.0CO2 2615 1137 2.79% 2771 1400 12.69% 2812 1384 6.72%

Central Thailand: 1.0CO2 2421 732   2481 743   2456 720  

Sakaeo Province 1.5CO2 2657 623 9.75% 2633 671 6.13% 2360 681 -3.91%

  2.0CO2 2527 823 4.38% 2878 796 16.00% 2516 803 2.44%

Page 10: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Potential climate impact on rain-fed agriculture:

Climate impact on rain-fed rice production

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

1980-89 2040-49 2066-75

Ave Max Min

Simulated rice yield under climate scenareio at Sakonnakorn province

kg ha-1

1.0XCO2 1.5XCO2 2.0XCO2

I = Standard deviation

Averaged simulated rice yields of each decade under three climate scenarios: Sakonnakorn Province, North-eastern

Thailand

y = -334.98x + 2863R 2 = 0.8062

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1.0XCO2 1.5XCO2 2.0XCO2

Impact of climate change on average rice yield at Sakonnakorn province

kg ha-1

Page 11: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Stakeholders

engagement

Engaging Local Community: Target social group – Rain-fed farmer community

Conduct on-farm interview & focus group discussion with local farmer communities

•Thailand: North-eastern region - Ubonratchathani province (covering 600 households in 18 villages in Det-udom and Najaluay Districts)

•Lao PDR: Central region - Savannakhet province (covering 160 households in 4 villages in Songkhone district)

Engaging Policy Maker: Series of meeting & workshop

Page 12: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Defining rain-fed farmer with risk to climate impact – potential vulnerable group:

Multi-criteria analysis

Coping Capacity

Livelihood dependency on rice production

Household Economic Condition

1. Good / sustained

2. Bad / not sustained

3. High

4. Low

5. High 6. Low

Potential Vulnerable Group2+4+5 2+3+5 2+4+6

Potential Non-Vulnerable Group1+3+6 1+4+5 1+3+5 1+4+6 2+3+6

Farmer community

Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Identifying

vulnerable group

Page 13: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range

Criteria I: Household economic condition

1 Sufficient household productivity

Total annual household produc tivity value / Total annual hous ehold consumption value

>= 1.5 = 1<1.5 -1= 2<1 = 3

2 2 - 6

2 Surplus household productivity

Percentage of annual househol d surplus productivity value / T

otal household consumption

>= 50% = 1<50-20%= 2<20% = 3

2 2 - 6

3 - Self sufficient rice consumption

Total annual rice production / T otal annual rice consumption

>= 1 = 1<1 = 2

1 1 - 2

4 Land ownership Own or rent farm land for farming

Yes = 1 No = 2

1 1 - 2

5 Sufficient productivity fro m non climate sensitive so

urce to guarantee food security

- (Total livestock + Off farm rev enue) / Total food consumption

>= 1= 1<1-0.5 = 2<0.5 = 3

1 1 - 3

Criteria II: Rice production dependency

6 Household sustained liveli hood without rice producti

on

Total other productivity value / Total household consumption *

100

>70 % = 1<70–50%= 2<50% =3

3 3 - 9

7 Level of food security from nature production

Total value of food from natura l source / Total food consumpti

on *100

>70 % = 1<70–50%= 2<50% = 3

3 3 - 9

Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaulate

climate risk – Lao PDR

Page 14: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range

Criteria III: Coping capacity

8 Capacity of saving to supp ort household livelihood

Total household saving (cas h + rice in the store + livest

ock) / Total household consu mption *100

>30 % = 1<30-10% = 2<10% = 3

2 2 - 6

9 External financial supportmechanism

Accessible to external loan t o support climate impact

Adequate = 1 Partial= 2

None or barely =3

1 1 - 3

10 Capacity to maintain liveli hood with total lost rice pr

oduction

(Total household saving + Al ternate & extra income + ca

sh convertible product e,g, li vestock) / (Household consu

mption 5 months + total cos t of rice production)

>=1 = 1<1 – 0.5= 2<0.5 = 3

2 2 - 6

11 Capacity of natural produc t to maintain food security

Total nature product / Total f ood consumption *100

>=70 % = 1<70-30 %= 2< 30% = 3

1 1 - 3

Total possible Range Scoring = 19 – 55• Low climate risk group = 19 – 31• Moderate climate risk group = >31 – 43• High climate risk group = >43 – 55

Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaulate

climate risk – Lao PDR

Page 15: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Climate risk farmer - Current conditionLao PDR

Low Risk10566%

Moderate Risk45

28%

High Risk106%

Low Risk

Moderate Risk

High Risk

    - Potential Vulnerable Group Lao PDR

    Current Situation With Climate Impact Stress

Criteria / Score Range Low Moderate

High Low Moderate

High

Total Vulnerability Score 19 - 55 19 - 31

>31 - 43 >43 - 55 19 - 31

>31 - 43 >43 - 55

Average Score   26.4 37.2 46.9 26.5 36.5 47.0

Household Economic Condition

7 - 19 9.1 13.5 17.0 9.3 13.7 17.6

Livelihood Dependency on Rice

6 - 18 7.0 10.1 14.4 7.0 9.5 14.1

Coping Capacity 6 - 18 10.4 13.6 15.5 10.2 13.2 15.3

Number of Households 162  105 45 10 98 49 13

Climate risk group – Lao PDR when rice production reduced by 15%

Household vulnerable to climate impact = 45 households (28% of total survey)

Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed

farmer

Climate risk farmer with Climate Stress - Lao PDR

Low Risk98

61%

Moderate Risk49

31%

High Risk138%

Low Risk

Moderate Risk

High Risk

Page 16: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Climate risk farmer - Current conditionLao PDR

Low Risk10566%

Moderate Risk45

28%

High Risk106%

Low Risk

Moderate Risk

High Risk

    - Potential Vulnerable Group Lao PDR

    Current Situation With Climate Impact Stress

Criteria / Score Range Low Moderate

High Low Moderate

High

Total Vulnerability Score 19 - 55 19 - 31

>31 - 43 >43 - 55 19 - 31

>31 - 43 >43 - 55

Average Score   26.4 37.2 46.9 26.6 35.9 47.1

Household Economic Condition

7 - 19 9.1 13.5 17.0 9.7 14.1 17.9

Livelihood Dependency on Rice

6 - 18 7.0 10.1 14.4 6.9 9.0 13.6

Coping Capacity 6 - 18 10.4 13.6 15.5 10.0 12.8 15.5

Number of Households 162  105 45 10 84 61 15

Climate risk group – Lao PDR when rice production reduced by 30%

Household vulnerable to climate impact = 97 households (60% of total survey)

Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed

farmer

Climate risk farmer with Climate Stress - Lao PDR

Low Risk84

53%

Moderate Risk61

38%

High Risk159%

Low Risk

Moderate Risk

High Risk

Page 17: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Characteristic of vulnerable group to impact of climate change – Lao PDR

(97 households or 60% of total survey)

Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C

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- - Comparison of socio economic condition: Vulnerable VS Non vulnerable groups

  Without clim ate stress

- With climate stress lost of rice production by 30%

Comparison V ulnerable to N

- on vulnerablegroup Average from total households in each group Total

surveyed population

-Non Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Economic condition:  

Annual total productivity (per capita) $284 $296 $236 -20.27%

Annual consumption (per capita) $145 $150 $142 -5.33%

- Annual total rice production (value per capita) $81 $61 $54 -11.48%

Percentage of HH annual rice production to total productivity

3112. % 2191% 2627% 19.90%

- Percentage of annual HH on farm production to total productivity

6416. % 5996. % 6122.%

2.10%

- Percentage of HH annual off farm production to total productivity

3584. % 4004% 3878.%

-3.15%

HH cash saving (per capita) $39 $49 $39 -20.41%

HH other saving (includes cash convertible livestock) per capita

$75 $113 $75 -33.63%

Farming system structure:        

HH farm size per capita 0.47 0.47 0.46 -2.13%

HH rice productivity per land unit (ton/ha) 1.66 1.7 1.63 -4.12%

HH cost production $36 $45 $30 -33.33%

Page 18: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Some adaptation options taken to cope with past climate variability:

#1 – Seek for off-farm products e.g. products from natural source#2 – Implement alternate crop#3 – Increase buffer in coping capacity, e.g. community based rice bank, livestock

Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C

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Adaptation direction for rain-fed farmer – Lao PDRIncrease total productivity by increasing rice production by improving farming / crop management method and to increase buffer in coping capacity, probably through increasing livestock and / or off-farm income.

Page 19: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaluate

climate risk – Thailand

No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range

Criteria I: Household economic condition

1 Sufficient household incom e

Total household income / Tot al household expenditure

>= 1.5 = 1<1.5 -1= 2<1 = 3

1 1 - 3

2 Surplus household income Percentage of Total househol - d income Total household e

xpenditure) / Total household expenditure

=> 10% = 1, >10% to <-10% = 2, =<-10% = 3

0.5 0.5 – 1.5

3 - Self sustained rice consumption

Total annual rice production / Total annual rice consumptio

n

>= 1 = 1<1 = 2

1 1 - 2

4 Land ownership Own or rent farm land for farming

Yes = 1 No = 2

0.5 0.5 - 1

5 Gross Profit & Loss from ric e producing

Percentage of (Total value of - rice production Total cost of

production) / Total cost of production

>= 150% = 1, <150 to >100% = 2, =<100% = 3

0.5 0.5 - 1.5

6 Net Profit & Loss from riceproducing

(Total value of rice productio - n Cost of production) / (Tota

l cost of production + Househ old fixed expenses 4 months)

> 100% = 1, 100 to >50% = 2, =<50-0% = 3, =<0% = 4

0.5 0.5 - 2

Page 20: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaluate

climate risk – Thailand

No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range

Criteria II: Rice production dependency

7 Household sustains liveliho od without rice production

Total extra income / Total fix ed expenses

>=1 = 1, <1 to >0.5 = 2, =<0.5 = 3

2 2 - 6

8 Level of livelihood depende ncy on rice production

Percentage of (Total househo - ld expenditure Extra income

)/Total expenditure

<40% = 1, 40-70% = 2, >70% = 3

2 2 - 6

Page 21: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact : Indices to evaluate

climate risk – Thailand

No Criteria / Indicator Description Value Weight Range

Criteria III: Coping capacity

9 Capacity of alternate sourc e of income to support hou

sehold livelihood

Total alternate income / (Tot al cost of rice production + Fi

xed household expenditure 4month)

>=1 = 1, <1 = 2 1 1 - 2

10 External financial supportmechanism

Accessible to external loan to support climate impact

Adequate = 1 Partial= 2

None or barely =3

1 1 - 3

11 Capacity of saving to suppo rt household livelihood

(Cash saving + Total value of livestock) / (Total cost of rice

production + Fixed househol d expenditure for one crop se

ason: 4 month)

>=1 = 1, <1 = 2 1 1 - 2

12 Capacity to maintain livelih ood with total lost rice prod

uction

(Cash saving + Extra income + Cash convertible livestock + Loan allowance) / (Total ho

usehold expenditure + Total cost of rice production)

>1.5 = 1, 1.5 to >1 = 2, 1 to > 0.5 = 3, =<0.5 = 4

1 1 - 4

Total possible Range Scoring = 12 – 34• Low climate risk group = 12 – 19● Moderate climate risk group = >19 – 26● High climate risk group = >26 – 34

Page 22: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

 Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption

Potential Vulnerable Group – Thailand

    Current Situation With Climate Impact Stress

Criteria / Score Range Low Moderate

High Low Moderate

High

Total Vulnerability Score 1 2 - 34 1 2 - 19

>19 - 26 >26 - 34 1 2 - 19

>19 - 26 >26 - 34

Average Score   15 23.2 28.6 15.1 22.7 28.7

Household Economic Condition

4 - 11 6.3 6.6 8.9 6.3 6.7 9.1

Livelihood Dependency on Rice

4 - 12 4.5 10.5 12.0 4.3 10.1 12.0

Coping Capacity 4 - 11 4.4 6.1 7.7 4.5 5.9 7.5

Number of Households  98 34 29 35 32 27 39Climate risk farmer - Current SituationZone 1 - Thailand

Low Risk34

35%

Moderate Risk29

30%

High Risk35

35%Low Risk

Moderate Risk

High Risk

Climate risk group – Thailand when rice production reduced by 15%

Household vulnerable to climate impact = 28 households (28.6%)

Assessment on Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Impact: Climate risk to rain-fed

farmer

Climate risk farmer - with climate stress Rice production reduced 15%

Zone 1 - Thailand

Low Risk32

33%

Moderate Risk27

28%

High Risk39

39%Low Risk

Moderate Risk

High Risk

Page 23: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Characteristic of vulnerable group to impact of climate change

(28 households in Zone 1 Thailand)

Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C

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- Comparison of socio economic condition

Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption

Without cli mate stress

- With climate stress lost of rice production by 15%

Comparison Vuln -erable to Non vul

nerable group

Average from total households in each group Totalsurveyed population

-Non Vulnerable

Vulnerable

Economic condition:        

HH income per capita $252 $241 $203 -15.77%

Income from rice per capita $142 $119 $125 5.04%

Income from rice to Total income (%) 70.49 65.77 75.83 15.30%

Extra income to Total income (%) 29.51 34.33 24.17 -29.60%

Total expenditure per capita $164 $156 $185 18.59%

Cash saving per capita $19 $11 $38 245.45%

Total Cash convertible livestock per capita $230 $252 $176 -30.16%

Debt per capita $190 $207 $148 -28.50%

Weighted interest rate (%) 6.42 6.42 6.41 -0.16%

Farming system structure:        

Farm size per capita (Ha) 1.0 1.2 0.85 -29.17%

Rice productivity per Ha (ton/ha) 1.2 1.1 1.4 27.27%

Gross profit from rice production per Ha (%) 188 140 165 17.86%

Page 24: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Some adaptation options taken to cope with past climate variability:

#1 – Seek for off-farm income – laboring in the city#2 – Increasing buffer in coping capacity – number of livestock#3 – Alternate crop

Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C

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Adaptation direction for rain-fed farmer – Zone 1, ThailandIncrease income per capita by increasing extra income, perhaps to be higher than non-vulnerable group in order to cope with higher expenditure and to increase buffer in coping capacity, probably through increasing cash convertible livestock.

Page 25: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Climate risk group & their characteristics to be analyzed in the same method for the farmer in other zones

● Zone 1: Upland – local rice, mostly for own consumption• Zone 2: Lowland along river – flood risk area – commercial rice• Zone 3: Upland – commercial rice – rainfed only• Zone 4: Intensive commercial rice – rainfed only• Zone 5: Partly upland rice – convert from local rice to commercial ric

e – rainfed only – high risk in rainfall distribution

Concerned issue: Research gapVulnerability profile not explained & multi-dimension aspect, e.g. multiple climate stress, temporal aspect of the climate impact – time of occurrence, consecutive year of extreme event, dynamic of society, etc. not yet systematically covered.

Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C

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Page 26: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Summary:

Climate change shows strong tendency to have impact on rain-fed rice agriculture system, particularly the increasing in magnitude and frequency of extreme climate variability.

Rain-fed farmer’s livelihood would be affected from the damage or reduction in rice production due to climate impact.

Engaging local stakeholders to get better understanding on current adaptation strategies & evaluate whether they would be sufficient to cope with future climate impact or not.

Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C

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Page 27: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C

hangeProject wrap-up plan: Planning adaptation strategy &

evaluationSome concerned issues – site specific / limitation /

feasibility• The threshold of natural system condition to sufficiently support

community in compensating the lost in rice production of farmer in Lao PDR

Also degradation of the natural system as well as change in population to the threshold that such system may be overly exploited.

• E conomic condition in the city in Thailand to support excess labor fro m upcountry, who try to seek for extra income to support their livelih

ood when income from rice production is not sufficient.

Innovative new adaptation strategies to cope with the future vulnerability to climate change impact need to be developed

Page 28: Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate Change Suppakorn Chinvanno SEA START RC Chulalongkorn University Thailand.

Thank You

Vulnerability of Rain-fed Farmer in Lao PDR and Thailand from Impact of Climate C

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