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© Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office Vicky Pope October 2013 Latest developments in climate modelling:
33

Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

Jun 30, 2015

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This presentation was given at an IPCC event in Cardiff in October 2013
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Page 1: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office

Vicky Pope

October 2013

Latest developments in climate modelling:

Page 2: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office

Seamless prediction

Forecast lead-time

Co

nfid

en

ce

boundary

No

w

Ho

urs

Da

ys

1-w

ee

k

1-m

on

th

Se

aso

na

l

De

ca

da

l

Clim

ate

Pa

st clim

ate

Analysis of past weather observations to manage climate risks

Eg. Agriculture: this informs crop choice and planting date to optimise yields and minimise crop failure risk. Predicting routine and

hazardous weather conditions and disseminating tailored and timely warnings.

Public, emergency response, international disaster risk reduction

Monthly to decadal predictions informs probability of drought, cold, heat.

Contingency planners, national and international humanitarian response, government and private infrastructure investment

Global and regional climate predictions.

Informs mitigation policy and adaptation choices. Impacts on water resurces, heat stress, crops, infrastructure.

Supporting decision making

Page 3: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office

The big picture:

Models for global climate change and

mitigation

Page 4: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office

Climate models Used in IPCC AR4 2007

People Emissions Atmospheric

Composition

Climate

Change

Impacts

Climate models Integrated Assessment Models Impact models

Page 5: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office

People Emissions Atmospheric

Composition

Climate

Change

Impacts

Feedbacks

Earth System Models Used by some in IPCC AR5 2013

Page 6: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation
Page 7: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office

The global carbon cycle...

Why is it so important?

Page 8: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright 2007

Vegetation absorbs and releases carbon

• “photosynthesis” absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere, and turns it into carbon in the living vegetation

CO2

Page 9: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright 2007

Vegetation absorbs and releases carbon

• “photosynthesis” absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere, and turns it into carbon in the living vegetation

• The plant’s metabolism releases some back to the atmosphere

• “plant respiration”

CO2 CO2

Page 10: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright 2007

Vegetation absorbs and releases carbon

• “photosynthesis” absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere, and turns it into carbon in the living vegetation

• The plant’s metabolism releases some back to the atmosphere

• “plant respiration”

• Dead matter (leaves etc) falls to soil

• LARGE amounts of carbon stored in the soil

CO2 CO2

“litter”

Page 11: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright 2007

Vegetation absorbs and releases carbon

• “photosynthesis” absorbs CO2 from the atmosphere, and turns it into carbon in the living vegetation

• The plant’s metabolism releases some back to the atmosphere

• “plant respiration”

• Dead matter (leaves etc) falls to soil

• LARGE amounts of carbon stored in the soil

• Decomposed by bacteria/microbes and released as CO2 back to the atmosphere

• “soil respiration”

CO2 CO2

“litter” CO2

Page 12: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright 2007

Large scale view

• Very large amounts of carbon in…

• Very large amounts of carbon out

• In long term, these balance

Page 13: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright 2007

Ocean carbon cycle

• Also absorbs carbon

• Sea water dissolves carbon

• Plankton photosynthesise and/or eat each other

Page 14: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright 2007

Ocean carbon cycle

• Large amounts of CO2 in

• And out

• In long term, these balance

Page 15: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright 2007

Carbon cycle “protection”

• Currently, the global carbon cycle absorbs about half of our emissions

CO2 growth in the atmosphere

CO2 emissions

Page 16: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright 2007

Carbon cycle “protection”

• Currently, the global carbon cycle absorbs about half of our emissions

CO2 growth in the atmosphere

CO2 emissions

Warm years mean more CO2

Page 17: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

Balancing the carbon

100

What we emit…

Page 18: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

Balancing the carbon

100

50

25 25

=

atmosphere land ocean

What we emit… Must go somewhere

Page 19: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

Balancing the carbon

100

50

25 25

=

atmosphere land ocean

If these go down due to climate change…

What we emit… Must go somewhere

Page 20: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

Balancing the carbon

100

50

25 25

=

atmosphere land ocean

If these go down due to climate change…

This must go up

What we emit… Must go somewhere

Page 21: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

Balancing the carbon

100

50

=

atmosphere

For given emissions, carbon cycle feedback means:

- More CO2 stays in atmosphere

- We will see greater climate change >50

Page 22: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office National Academy of Science, 2011

Page 23: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office

The local picture:

Models for regional detail and adaptation

Page 24: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office

“I need hardly repeat, Sir, what has been so often explained, that the ‘forecasts’ are expressions of probabilities – and not dogmatic predictions.”

Admiral Robert Fitzroy, 1863

“… one flap of a sea-gull’s wing may forever change the future course of the weather”

Edward Lorenz, 1963

Page 25: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

10-year Vision: Integrated weather and climate prediction

for estimating hazards and risks

A number of global predictions at ~20km with

lead times of days to years:

Large-scale weather

A smaller number of regional predictions at

~1km:

Local weather

Probability of local hazard:

Impacts

© Crown copyright Met Office

Page 26: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

Moving from uncertainty to probabilities/likelihoods

UKCIP02

Single projection

Very unlikely to be less than (10%)

UKCP09

Central estimate (50%)

Very unlikely to be more than (90%)

Su

mm

er

Ra

infa

ll 2

08

0’s

Page 27: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office

Significant step forwards:

• First to quantify uncertainties and provide probability

distribution functions

• First to include feedbacks and uncertainties from

carbon cycle

But……

• No wind or snow variables, only limited information on

extremes – but more could be extracted from the

regional climate model ensembles

• No account of the current state of the climate system

© Crown copyright Met Office

UKCP09: The first step on a long road...

Page 28: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office

Storm-resolving forecasts: 1800 5th – 1500 6th Sep 2008

© Crown copyright Met Office Frames at 10min intervals

Our 3 day forecasts are as good as our 1 day forecasts were 20 years ago.

Page 29: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office

Improved rainfall over and around mountains and hills in 1.5km forecast model

12 km

4 km 1 km

Rain gauge observations and model forecasts

Model orography

12km 1 km

Case study: Carlisle flood, Jan 2005

Page 30: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office

Future change in the 1.5km model

• First climate change experiments with a

convection-permitting have now been

completed

• For first time we can examine future changes in

heavy rainfall at the hourly timescale

• 1.5km model shows large increases in heavy rain

in summer, which is very different to the driving

12km model.

• 12km RCM underestimates heavy rain in

summer, and shows little change in the future.

• Both models show similar increases in heavy rain

in winter.

Page 31: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office

Exploitation of the 1.5km model results

1.5km model results

Water How will flooding, water resources...

Change?

Storms How will small-scale intense (convective) storms change?

Extremes How will the risk of

risk of extreme events change?

Accuracy What are the strengths

and weaknesses of current models?

Improvement How can models be improved?

Page 32: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office

Exploitation of the 1.5km model results

1.5km model results

Water How will flooding, water resources...

Change?

Storms How will small-scale intense (convective) storms change?

Extremes How will the risk of

risk of extreme events change?

Accuracy What are the strengths

and weaknesses of current models?

Improvement How can models be improved?

What else? What would help

you?

Page 33: Vicky Pope Met Office IPCC Presentation

© Crown copyright Met Office

Questions?