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Copyright 2014 Cowan Publishing
PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS
ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com
@cowanSF
I am in this business/I am one of these personas and Iknow I have this problem- and Im sure it exists for
most others like me. Good start but approachdiscovery like you know nothing.
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PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS
ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com
@cowanSF
Our product doesnt really address a problem,exactly, so this isnt relevant for us.
There are no new problems orhabits. Make sure you knowwhat youre after.
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PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS
ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com
@cowanSF
Our product is so fundamentally novel thatthere are no current alternatives.
(see previous)
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PROBLEM HYPOTHESIS
ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com
@cowanSF
Weve mapped out the alternative and observedor key personas in action with them.
Excellent! Youre ready tosynthesize, tune and test yourvalue proposition!
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VALUE HYPOTHESIS
ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com
@cowanSF
How much better than the best alternative is yourproduct?
How obvious is that to the customer?
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VALUE HYPOTHESIS
ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com
@cowanSF
Over 80% of the people we asked said theyd buyour product!
Cant trust it- Yellow Walkmandata
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VALUE HYPOTHESIS
ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com
@cowanSF
We did a concierge test and [got paid, got askedby the customer when they could buy our
product]. Excellent! Youre on the fasttrack of iterating to a successfuloutcome. Time to look at anactual MVP.
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VALUE HYPOTHESIS
ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com
@cowanSF
We nished our concierge test. They liked it but asa result it was a long way to conclusive.
Now that you know how, couldyou get paid for the next one?Try other test and then ifnegative, consider pivot.
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VALUE HYPOTHESIS
ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com
@cowanSF
We made a bunch of pre-release sales, buttheyre non-binding.
Thats OK (as long as you madethe agreement with a realdecision maker). Youve got areasonably good validation ofvalue hypothesis.
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VALUE HYPOTHESIS
ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com
@cowanSF
We couldnt make any pre-release sales.
Why not? No interest? Thatsbad. Need to sell real product(and thats really why), considerwhats behind that.
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VALUE HYPOTHESIS
ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com
@cowanSF
We found a few AdWord-landing page combinationsthat had better than expected click through and
conversion rates to email sign-ups. Excellent! Thats a goodvalidation of your valuehypothesis and youre gotten a
jump start on your CustomerCreation Hypotheses.
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VALUE HYPOTHESIS
ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com
@cowanSF
We tried a few things with AdWords and landingpages, but the results werent great.
What happens when you try thesame thing out in the realworld? Search is a good way toconnect with existing demandbut not necessarily learn about
its fundamentals.
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CUSTOMER CREATION HYPOTHESIS
ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com
@cowanSF
How will you get the customers: attention, interest,desire, action, onboarding, retention?How will you know if its working?
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CUSTOMER CREATION HYPOTHESIS
ALEX COWANAlexanderCowan.com
@cowanSF
Most of these results are prettydenitive.
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WHERE ARE YOU NOW?
MVP
Nascent
Product-MarketFit(?) Scale
PIVOTALASSUMPTIONS
PRODUCT
ORG.
PARTNERS,CHANNELS
Founders
N/A
Probably toosoon
Test, revise,test...
MVP
Customer dev.team
Probably toosoon
Validated- nowtactical
Focus: efciency,extension
Full functionalorganization
Yeah, maybe?
Validated- nowtactical
What would astartup do??
Scalableorganization
Yeah, denitely!
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AGENDAPeriod Deliverables
Venture Design I: AchievingCustomer Relevance
PersonasProblem Scenarios-Alternatives-Value PropositionsStart Business Model CanvasStoryboardsCustomer Discovery
Venture Design II: Iterating toSuccess
Venture Planning- focal hypotheses, experiments, and minimumviable product
Venture Design III: Focusing &Validating Venture Progress
Review of eld work, renements of approach, planning nextsteps.
Venture Design IV: EngineeringYour Business Model
Detailing your business model and remaining focal assumptions.
Venture Design V: Designing theRight Product
Pairing your learnings on personas & hypotheses with highquality, actionable inputs (stories & wireframes) for productdevelopment and product validation.
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RECOMMENDED NEXT STEPS
Homework1. Draft a working set of personasPick the most important buyers and/or users. More is not necessarily better- you can always addmore (re-segment) later. Finish think-see-feel-do. Find a photo.
2. Draft a working set of problem scenario-alternative-value proposition trios.
3. Finish a working product hypothesis and positioning statement.
GOOGLE DOC TEMPLATE FOR ABOVE:http://bit.ly/venturetemplate
4. Finish a working interview guide to validate your persona and problem hypotheses andcomplete a few customer interviews.
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RECOMMENDED NEXT STEPS
Follow-On Workshops1. For Creating Strong PersonasDay in the Life Workshop: http://bit.ly/daynthelife
2. For Structuring Your Product Value Propositions into Testable AssumptionsVenture Design II: Iterating to Success: http://bit.ly/vdesignII
3. For Designing a Protable Business ModelVenture Design IV: Engineering Your Business Model: http://bit.ly/vdesignIV
4. For Linking the Above to an Effective Product Development ProgramVenture Design V: Designing the Right Product: http://bit.ly/vdesignV
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@cowanSF
www.alexandercowan.com/venture-design
bit.ly/vdesignI
www.alexandercowan.com/startup-sprints
