Using Participatory System Dynamics Modeling of Agricultural … · Using Participatory System Dynamics Modeling of Agricultural-Environmental Systems in a Rural Development Context

UsingParticipatorySystemDynamicsModelingofAgricultural-EnvironmentalSystemsinaRuralDevelopmentContext

RobertB.Richardson&LauraSchmittOlabisiMichiganStateUniversity

InnovationsinCollaborativeModeling

June14,2016

§ Projectobjectives§ MajortrendsinZambia§ Participatorysystemdynamicsmodeling§ Results:modelsofdeforestation

§  National-andprovincial-levelbaseline§  Driversofdeforestation§  Scenarios

§  Maizeyieldincrease§  Policyscenarios

Acknowledgements:PhilipGrabowski,NaomiSakana,&KurtWaldman

Overview

§ World population to reach 9 billion by 2050 § Global need to increase food production 50-70% § Yet, agriculture is §  largest emitter of greenhouse gases (~30-35% of total) §  largest consumer of freshwater resources §  largest user of land resources (~38% of total) § greatest contributor to biodiversity losses

Foley et al., 2011

GlobalContextforProject

§ AgriculturalintensiXication§  Increasefoodproduction§  Withoutincreasingdeforestation§  Limitingimpactstobiodiversity§  Adapting/mitigatingtheimpactsofclimatechange

§  SustainableintensiXication§ Whataretheimpactsandlinkagesonthelandscape?

GlobalContextforProject(continued)

§ Project:ImpactofSustainableIntensiXicationonLandscapesandLivelihoods(SILL)

§ Examinethepotentialforsustainableintensi+icationofagriculturetocontributetoforestconservationinZambia

§ Pilotsites:EasternandLusakaProvinces,Zambia§ Participatorysystemdynamicsmodelingactivitiesin2014-15

Acknowledgements:PhilipGrabowski,NaomiSakana,&KurtWaldman

ProjectObjectives

MajorTrendsinZambia § Relativelylowpopulationdensity§ Populationgrowth

§  Projectedtotripleby2050to43million,increase10xby2100

§ Highratesofurbanization§  Increasingdemandforfoodandenergy

§ Highratesofdeforestation§  150,000-300,000ha/year§  Leadingcauseofgreenhousegasemissions

Implications § Foodsecurity–demandforfood§ Demandforcropland§ Conventionalwisdom:practiceofcultivatingmaizemonoculturedepletessoils

§ Farmersmigratetolandabundantareas§ Deforestationisdrivenbyclearinglandforagriculture

§ Degradedsoils§ Lownon-farmruralemployment

§ Dominantnarrative:deforestationismostlydrivenbysmallholderfarmersfacingweakyieldsindegradedsoilswhoabandontheirXieldsandclearnewland

§ Hypothesis:sustainableintensiXication(SI)practicesthatincreaseyieldsorproducefuelwoodwillreducedeforestationpressures§  Conservationagriculture:increasedyieldswillreduceneedforlandconversion

§  Agroforestry:on-farmfuelwoodproductionwillreducedemandforforestresources

AgriculturalPracticesandDeforestation

9

ParticipatorySystemsModeling § Participatorysystemdynamicsmodelingwasusedtoelicitstakeholderviewsofthesystemandhowitoperates,andtousethatinformationtoinformtheconstructionofthemodel.

§ Itcanbeausefultoolforidentifyingtheprimarydriversofchangeincomplexagro-ecologicalsystems.

§ Theapproachalsoallowsforexamininghypotheticaloralternativescenarios.

ParticipatoryModelingProcess§ Identifypartnersandstakeholders§ Introductoryworkshop(generatecausalloopdiagrams)§ Reviewliteratureanddatasets§ Buildnational-levelmodelofdeforestationinVensim®

§ Participatorymodelingworkshop(reXineparameters)§ Buildprovincial-levelmodel(EasternandLusakaProv.)§ Finalworkshopandreport

§ Totaltimeline:~15months(May2014–August2015)

§  IndabaAgriculturalPolicyResearchInstitute(IAPRI)

§  BioCarbonPartners§  COMACO§  CIFOR§  CIMMYT§  ICRAF§  ICRISAT§  IITA§ MichiganStateUniversity§  SouthLuangwaConservationSociety

Participants§  TheNatureConservancy§  TGCC/TetraTech§  TotalLandCare§  USAID§  UniversityofZambia§ WWF§  ZambiaAgricultureResearchInstitute

§  ZambiaCarnivoreResearch§  ZambiaForestryDepartment

total householdincome

farmincome

land instaple crops

-

+

land incash crops

+

householdfood supply

-

foodsecurity

+ +

-

economicsecurity

Economicsecurityfeedbackloop

CausalLoopDiagrams

Extensifica8onfeedbackloop

charcoaling

poaching

deforestation

wildlifepopulations

desiredagricultural

land

+

-


farmincome

land instaple crops

+

+

++

land incash crops

+

totalhousehold

land

+

+

+

householdsavings household

food supply

fuelwoodharvesting

Extensification

-

+

foodsecurity

economicsecurity

+

otherforest

income+

tourismincome

+

+

-

+

householdresillience

+ +

-

--

-

naturalresourceincome

+

+

-

-

charcoaling

poaching

deforestation

wildlifepopulations

desiredagricultural

land

+

-


demand fornatural resources

farmincome

land instaple crops

+

+

++

land incash crops

landin CA

land inagroforestry

labor supply

soilqualitycrop yields

-++

--

+

+

rainfallvariability

-

fertilizerusage

+

totalhousehold

land

+

+

+

householdenergysupply

householdsavings household

food supply

fuelwoodharvesting

manure

livestockpopulation

+

+

Extensification

-

soilerosion

+

land inconventional

ag

+

+

foodsecurity

economicsecurity

landmanagement

-

+

+

+land

degradation

+

-

+-

-

access to savingsand credit

distance to urbanmarkets

distance toforests

+

++

off farmwage labor

+

otherforest

income+

communitywoodlots

-

reforestationpolicy

-

tourismincome

+

improved seedvarieties

+

+-

alternative sourcesof energy

+

population

+

-

+

+

householdresillience

+ +

-

--

cropresidues

timberyield

+

energysecurity

-

-

-

urban demandfor resources

migration toforested areas

++

naturalresourceincome

+

deathrate

-

-

populationpressure

+

-+

Extension andfarmer knowledge

+

+

+

-

-

birth rate

+

+

+

-

Policyinterven8ons

ForestsinZambia§ Modeleddriversofdeforestation

§  IntegratedLandUseAssessment(FAO,2008)§ Twotypesofforestsrepresentedinmodel:

§  Deciduousandevergreenforests§ Miombowoodlands

§ Forestsresourcesusedwidelyformultiplepurposes§  Urbanhouseholdsdependoncharcoalforaffordablecookingfuel§  RuralhouseholdsdependonXirewoodforcookingfuel§  Ruralhouseholdsmayproduceandsellcharcoalasacopingstrategyduringperiodsofweakcropyields

DeforestationinZambia§  Sourcesofdeforestationrepresentedinmodel:

§  Clearinglandforagriculture§  Charcoalproduction§  Fuelwoodcollection§  Homeconstruction§  Commercialtimber

National-levelBaselineModel

14%loss18%loss

ForestCover

Deforestation by Driver40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Time (Year)

ha/Y

ear

deforestation for agriculture : landscape_v5_baselinearea of forest needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baselinearea of forest needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baselineforest clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baselineforest clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline

LandconversionCharcoalFuelwood

ConstructionComm.Timber

ha/year

NationalModel

Miombo Clearing by Driver80,000

60,000

40,000

20,000

02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Time (Year)

ha/Y

ear

miombo clearing for ag : landscape_v5_baselinearea of miombo needed for charcoal : landscape_v5_baselinearea of miombo needed for fuelwood : landscape_v5_baselinemiombo clearing for commercial timber : landscape_v5_baselinemiombo clearing for rural home construction : landscape_v5_baseline

NationalModel

FuelwoodCharcoal

LandconversionComm.TimberConstruction

ha/year

1.23%lossratein2010 0.93%lossratein2010

Deciduous and evergreen forest300,000

225,000

150,000

75,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baseline

Miombo woodland600,000

450,000

300,000

150,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : lusaka_baseline

LusakaProvinceBaseline


22,500

15,000

7500

02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Time (Year)

ha/Y

ear

deforestation for agriculture : lusaka_baselinearea of forest needed for charcoal : lusaka_baselinearea of forest needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baselineforest clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baseline

LusakaProvinceModel

FuelwoodCharcoal

Landconversion ConstructionComm.Timber

Miombo Clearing by Driver40,000

30,000

20,000

10,000

02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Time (Year)

ha/Y

ear

miombo clearing for ag : lusaka_baselinearea of miombo needed for charcoal : lusaka_baselinearea of miombo needed for fuelwood : lusaka_baselinemiombo clearing for rural home construction : lusaka_baselineFuelwoodCharcoal


LusakaProvinceModel

EffectsofMaizeYieldIncrease

Maizeyieldsincreaseat3xtheircurrentrate-noeffectondeforestation.


150,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_yield


300,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_yield

YieldincreaseBaseline Baseline

Yieldincrease

LUSAKAPROVINCE

EffectsofDrought

Adroughtaffecting70%ofagriculturalareaoccursevery40years,and40%ofareaevery8years.Farmersturntocharcoalproductionforincomeinyearsinwhichtheircropsare

affected.IffarmersengageinCA,theyarenotaffected.Noeffectondeforestation.


150,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_drought


300,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_droughtDrought

BaselineDroughtBaseline

LUSAKAPROVINCE

EffectofFullElectriXication Deciduous and evergreen forest

300,000

150,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_electrification


300,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_electrification

ElectriXicationBaseline


LUSAKAPROVINCE

EffectofFuel-EfXicientStoves Deciduous and evergreen forest

300,000

150,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : lusaka_efficient_stoves


300,000

02010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : lusaka_baselineMiombo woodland : lusaka_efficient_stoves

EfXicientstovesBaseline


LUSAKAPROVINCE

EasternProvinceBaseline

0.74%lossratein2010 0.54%lossratein2010

Deciduous and evergreen forest2 M

1.75 M

1.5 M

1.25 M

1 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baseline

Miombo woodland3 M

2.75 M

2.5 M

2.25 M

2 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : eastern_baseline

EasternProvinceModel

FuelwoodCharcoal

Landconversion ConstructionComm.Timber


15,000

10,000

5000

02010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Time (Year)

ha/Y

ear

deforestation for agriculture : eastern_baselinearea of forest needed for charcoal : eastern_baselinearea of forest needed for fuelwood : eastern_baselineforest clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline

FuelwoodCharcoal


EasternProvinceModel Miombo Clearing by Driver

30,000

22,450

14,900

7350

-2002010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060

Time (Year)

ha/Y

ear

miombo clearing for ag : eastern_baselinearea of miombo needed for charcoal : eastern_baselinearea of miombo needed for fuelwood : eastern_baselinemiombo clearing for rural home construction : eastern_baseline

EffectsofMaizeYieldIncrease

Maizeyieldsincreaseat3xtheircurrentrate-noeffectondeforestation.Yieldincrease

Baseline BaselineYieldincrease


1.5 M

1 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_yield

Miombo woodland3 M

2.5 M

2 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_yield

EASTERNPROVINCE

EffectsofDrought

Adroughtaffecting70%ofagriculturalareaoccursevery40years,and40%ofagriculturalareaevery8years.Farmersturntocharcoalproductionforincomeinyears

inwhichtheircropsareaffected.IffarmersengageinCA,theyarenotaffected.

DroughtBaseline

DroughtBaseline


1.5 M

1 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_drought

Miombo woodland3 M

2.5 M

2 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_drought

EASTERNPROVINCE

EffectofFullElectriXication




1.5 M

1 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_electrification

Miombo woodland3 M

2.5 M

2 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_electrification

EASTERNPROVINCE

EffectofFuel-EfXicientStoves




1.5 M

1 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)

ha

Deciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_baselineDeciduous and evergreen forest : eastern_efficient_stoves

Miombo woodland3 M

2.5 M

2 M2010 2025 2040 2055

Time (Year)Miombo woodland : eastern_baselineMiombo woodland : eastern_efficient_stoves

EASTERNPROVINCE

Conclusions•  Charcoalproductionandclearingforagriculturearebothimportantdriversofdeforestation

•  CharcoalcurrentlydominatesinLusaka•  ClearingforagriculturecurrentlydominatesinEastern•  Charcoalexpectedtodominateinbothprovincesinthefuture

•  Clearinglandforagricultureisdrivenbyruralpopulationgrowth,notlowyieldsorlandabandonment

•  Charcoalproductionisdrivenbyurbanpopulationgrowthandenergydemand

•  Participatorysystemdynamicsmodelingcanbeausefultoolforidentifyingtheprimarydriversofchangeincomplexagro-ecologicalsystems

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Using Participatory System Dynamics Modeling of Agricultural … · Using Participatory System Dynamics Modeling of Agricultural-Environmental Systems in a Rural Development Context

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