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Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka Ivančan-Picek, Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia Regional Workshop on Hydrological Forecasting and Real Time Data Management 11 – 13 May 2009, Park Hotel, Dubrovnik, Croatia
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Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Dec 17, 2015

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Page 1: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models

Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of SloveniaBranka Ivančan-Picek, Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Croatia

Regional Workshopon

Hydrological Forecasting and Real Time Data Management

11 – 13 May 2009, Park Hotel, Dubrovnik, Croatia

Page 2: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Hydrological Model

Input = Precipitation (Air temperature,

Evapotranspirationetc.)

Input = Precipitation (Air temperature,

Evapotranspirationetc.)

Matematical description of complex hydrological systemincluding characteristics of the watershed,

evapotranspiration, infiltration etc.

Matematical description of complex hydrological systemincluding characteristics of the watershed,

evapotranspiration, infiltration etc.

Output = Discharge(Soil Moisture, etc.)

Output = Discharge(Soil Moisture, etc.)

Page 3: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

HydrologicalModel

(deterministic,conceptual,distributed,lump, etc)

HydrologicalModel

(deterministic,conceptual,distributed,lump, etc)

Observed orestimated rainfall

Observed orestimated rainfall

Forecasted rainfall

Forecasted rainfall

Simulated discharge Simulated discharge Forecasted dischargeForecasted discharge

T = 0

State variables

T = 0

Simulation Forecast

Hydrological Forecasting System

Page 4: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Quantitative precipitationQuantitative precipitation

•point precipitation measurements•radar measurements•rainfall estimation based on satelliteimagery

•point precipitation measurements•radar measurements•rainfall estimation based on satelliteimagery

Numerical Weather Prediction Models Global: ECMWF, DWD, Arpege, NCEP/GFS,etc.LAM: Aladin, NMM, WRF-ARW, etc.

Quantitative PrecipitationForecast

Values in equidistant discrete grid

Quantitative PrecipitationForecast

Values in equidistant discrete grid

Mean Areal PrecipitationThiessen Polygons,

Inverse Distance Weighting

Spline,Radar Maps,

Cold Cloud Duration,etc.

Page 5: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Rainfall Estimation – Example from Nile Forecast Centre

IR/T ~ CCD ~ R

Method useful only in areas with predominant convective raifall

Page 6: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Accumulated rainfall 29 March 2009 06 UTC – 30 March 2009 06 UTC estimated by Radar and observed rainfall at some stations (figures)

Example of by radar estimated rainfall

Page 7: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Accumulated rainfall 29 March 2009 06 UTC – 30 March 2009 06 UTC estimated by NMM over Slovenia, model run start at 29 March 00 UTC and observed rainfall at some stations (figures)

LAM - Example

Page 8: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Regression models are used in some Regression models are used in some NMHS’s using observed precipitation NMHS’s using observed precipitation at some stations.at some stations.

Some of them cooperate with JRC in Some of them cooperate with JRC in the EFAS (European Flood Alert the EFAS (European Flood Alert System) project, designed for System) project, designed for simulation of rainfall-runoff processes simulation of rainfall-runoff processes in in large large catchments (Danube, Drava, catchments (Danube, Drava, Sava).Sava).

FactsFactsMajority of present countries doesn’t use hydrological conceptual or Majority of present countries doesn’t use hydrological conceptual or dynamic modells for a real time hydrological forecast.dynamic modells for a real time hydrological forecast.

Page 9: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

To overcome the existent deficiencies and to improve the flood warning capabilities To overcome the existent deficiencies and to improve the flood warning capabilities in the Sava Basin the “Sava Project” - Development and Upgrading of in the Sava Basin the “Sava Project” - Development and Upgrading of Hydrometeorological Information and Forecasting System for the Sava River BasinHydrometeorological Information and Forecasting System for the Sava River Basin[Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, Slovenia and Serbia] [Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Croatia, Montenegro, Slovenia and Serbia] developeddeveloped

FactsFacts

There is relatively scarcenetwork of real-time rainfallstations for flash-floodwarning

Page 10: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Numerical Weather Prediction Models - NWP

Weather Observing System

Weather Observing System

Data AnalysisData Asimilation

Initialization

Data AnalysisData Asimilation

Initialization

Integration

Atmospheric PhysicsSurface Physics

Surface Processes

Numerical Methods

Simulated FieldsSimulated Fields

PostprocessingVizualization

PostprocessingVizualization

Page 11: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Numerical Weather Prediction Models - NWP

Simulated/Predicted

AthmosphericVariables/Fields

Initial andBoundaryConditions

(data archive)

Integration

Numerical resolving of mathematical equations describing development of athmospheric variables in time

Air PressureWindTemperatureHumidityCloudinessPrecipitationEvaporationSoil Moisture

Page 12: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Real continous space is in a model presented in equidistant discrete grid formSpace resolution defines the smallest structures seen by a

NWP:

Low resolution (~200 km) – simulation of basic structures (planetary waves, big frontal systems) – used for climate modeling and studies of global mechanisems;

Medium resolution (50 - 10 km) – simulation of sinoptic and mesoscale systems – used for general weather forecast;

High resolution (< 10 km) – simulation of local systems (wind, fog, tunderstorms, etc.)

Regardless the resolution, there are Global models covering entire globe and Limited Area Models simulating weather over choosed

smaller area

Numerical Weather Prediction Models - NWP

Page 13: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Very important over montainous areas

Relief presentation depends on horizontal resolution

Example: slope and precipitation:

Wind

Numerical Weather Prediction Models - NWP

This is why majority of NWP models underestimate precipitation

Page 14: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Numerical Weather Prediction Models - NWP

• To run a LAM, access to global archives of weather patterns is needed• Data in regular grid, internally consistent, without errors (+)• Not directly related to actual situation “on ground” (-)

Page 15: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

DATA SOURCE:

European Centre for Middle-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)

Available data sets:

1. Operational data set;2. ERA-Interim - Daily re-analyses of weather patterns for last 20 years (1989 – 2008)3. ERA-40 - Daily re-analyses of weather patterns for time period (1957 – 2001)

Numerical Weather Prediction Models - NWP

Page 16: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Limited Area Model

Main Idea:

•Take data from global archive •Choose area and grid points •Re-simulate weather patterns from global model to obtain more details on a regional scale

Numerical Weather Prediction Models - NWP

Page 17: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

(Non)Predictability

Physical Laws Co-existence of various scales Interaction of all variables Exchange of energy among various scales

Chaos

Numerical Weather Prediction Models - NWP

Page 18: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Numerical Weather Prediction Models - NWPLorentz butterfly

Page 19: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Numerical Weather Prediction Models - NWP

(Non)Predictability Physical Laws

Co-existence of various scales Interaction of all variables Exchange of energy among various scales

Discretization of continous space Limited computing power Incomplete knowledge of initial state

Page 20: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Numerical Weather Prediction Models - NWP

Uncertainty

Taking into account (Non)Predictability, we have to consider that by the model simulated parameters and fields are not directly related to actual parameters, in particular to the situation “on ground”.

How to reduce uncertainty of the NWP products?

1. to choose the model and setup it in the way that the output best fits the observations (might be difficult for precipitation!);

2. to calibrate the hydrological model with the model simulated precipitation (problem of distribution in space);

3. to use multi-model or assembley prediction (extended streamflow prediction);

Page 21: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

LAM – Example: Flood in Železniki on

18 September 2007

WRF-ARW, Horizontal resolution app. 1 km Acc. Precipitation 20070918-19,06-06

Page 22: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

LAM – Example: Flood in Železniki on

18 September 2007

Page 23: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

LAM – Example: Flood in Železniki on

18 September 2007

Page 24: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

LAM – Example: Flood in Železniki on

18 September 2007

Page 25: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

LAM – Example: Flood in Železniki on

18 September 2007

Page 26: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Application of NWP for flood and drought monitoring

Simulation using operational data fromECMWF

Usual process in operational weather forecasting Does it have any potential for flood and drought monitoring?

Page 27: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

In addition to short middle and/or long term forecasting the model could be used as an analytical tool.

Goal:

To re-compute re-analyses data over limited area in dense grid to obtain “model climatology”for flood and drought situations interpretation.

ECMWF ERA – Interim1989 - 2008

Limited Model IntegrationArea

Limited Area ModelNNM (NCEP)

Application of NWP for flood and drought monitoring

Page 28: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Application of NWP for flood/drought monitoring

LimitedArea

NMM (NCEP)Non-Hydrostatic

Meso-scaleModel

• Area: 461 x 289 x 92 = 12.257.068 points (133.229 points “on ground”)• Top Level: 2 hPa (~ 60 km)• Horizontal resolution: 8.5 km• Vertical levels: 91• Integration Time: 36 h• Time Step: 30 sec.• No. days in re-analyse: 7305

Page 29: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Application of NWP for flood and drought monitoring

HorizontalResolution – Grid density

Page 30: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

OUTPUT:

Simulated and averaged variables (air and soil) – daily aggregates 1989-2008

precip daily sum (00-24h), mmevaporation (and transpiration) daily sum (00-24h), mmpotential evaporation (and transpiration) daily sum (00-24h), mmliquid soil moisture volumetric fraction 0-10cm (24h)liquid soil moisture volumetric fraction 10-40cm (24h)liquid soil moisture volumetric fraction 40-100cm (24h)liquid soil moisture volumetric fraction 100-200cm (24h)total soil moisture volumetric fraction 0-10cm (24h)total soil moisture volumetric fraction 10-40cm (24h)total soil moisture volumetric fraction 40-100cm (24h)total soil moisture volumetric fraction 100-200cm (24h)total soil moisture content (kg/m2) in 0-200cm layer (24h)geopotential height on 850hPa (12h), mtemperature on 850hPa (12h), Kdaily average 10m wind, m/sdaily average 10m wind gusts, m/sdaily min. temperature, Kdaily max. temperature, Kdaily min. relative humidity, %daily max. relative humidity, %

Application of NWP for flood and drought monitoring

Page 31: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Application of NWP for flood and drought monitoring

FLOOD/DROUGHT RELATED VARIABLESSoil moisture?Water balance?Temperature?Evapotranspiration?

FLOOD/DROUGHT RELATED TIME SCALE Not daily! Decade?

FLOOD/DROUGHT RELATED INTERPRETATIONNot absolute values, deviation from normals,percentils …

Page 32: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Application of NWP for flood and drought monitoring

STATISTICS:

Model climatologybased on ERA – Interim (1989 – 2008) re-analyses

Page 33: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

STATISTICS:

Model climatologybased on ERA – Interim (1989 – 2008) re-analyses

Application of NWP for flood and drought monitoring

Page 34: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

STATISTICS:

Model climatologybased on ERA – Interim (1989 – 2008) re-analyses

Application of NWP for flood and drought monitoring

Page 35: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Application of NWP for flood and drought monitoring

STATISTICS:

Historical 40 % Percentile of Soil moisture index of upper 10 cm layer averaged over 10 days

Page 36: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Application of NWP for flood and drought monitoring

POSSIBLE

PRODUCT:

Anomaly of mean 10 days mean temperature, based on re-analyses statistics

Page 37: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Application of NWP for flood and drought monitoring

POSSIBLE

PRODUCT:

Accumulated Water Balance from 20 Februaryto 30 April 2009In percentil classes

Page 38: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Conclusions:• With growing computer power and latest generation of

atmospheric modells uncertainty of the NWP products gradually reduces;

• Uncertainty of the simulated precipitation amounts over a limited area is reducing with growing horizontal grid density, but in the same time it increase in term of spatial distribution (important specially for flash flood warning);

• In spite of NWP outputs uncertainty, use of NWP outputs is the best we can use for the hydrological forecasting;

• Taking into account the fact that a certain uncertainty of the NWP output used as input into the hydrological model multiplies the uncertainty of hydrological model outputs by more than 1.5, one might consider to calibrate the hydrological model by NWP outputs – use of re-analyses;

• NWP model climatology based on re-analyses is useful for flood and drought monitoring.

Page 39: Use of Meteorological Forecast Data and Products as Input into Hydrological Models Jožef Roškar, Enviromental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia Branka.

Regional Workshop on HFRTDM, Hotel Park, Dubrovnik, 11 - 13 May 2009

Thank you for your attention!