United States Redistricting 101 Michael McDonald Associate Professor, George Mason University Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution Special Thanks to Justin Levitt
Jan 29, 2016
United StatesRedistricting 101
Michael McDonald
Associate Professor, George Mason University
Non-Resident Senior Fellow, Brookings Institution
Special Thanks to Justin Levitt
Today’s conversation
• What?
• Who?
• Where?
• Why?
• How?
Today’s conversation
• What?
• Who?
• Where?
• Why?
• How?
What is “redistricting”?
Draw (and re-draw) lines that determine which voters are represented by each legislative seat
• Federal• State• Local
Why re-draw district lines?
• Population moves, creating lopsided districts where some votes are worth more than others
Constitutional mandate to redraw lines
Districts must have roughly equal population
Baker v. Carr, 1962
“One person, one vote”
2000 ―2001 ―
2010 ―2011 ―
2020 ―2021 ―
And so…Census DayRedistricting
Census DayRedistricting
Census DayRedistricting
Key redistricting dates
April 1, 2010 ―
December 31, 2010―
January 10, 2011 ―
April 1, 2011 ―
End of session 2011 ―
or early 2012
Census Day
Census count to President
Apportionment to U.S. House
Redistricting data to states
Most redistricting complete
Today’s conversation
• What?
• Who?
• Where?
• Why?
• How?
Who draws the lines
In most states, the legislature has primary control
• State legislative districts: 37 states
• Congressional districts: 38 states(and 7 states with 1 Congressional district)
Other redistricting institutions
AdvisoryPrimary control in the legislature
Primary control outside legislature
PoliticianBackup
State legislative districts
Congressional
districts
*
*
2000 cycle judicial action
State leg. Congress*
Courts asked to step in 32 21
Court drew lines itself 10 9
… and if that should fail
* 7 states had only one congressional district in the 2000 cycle
Today’s conversation
• What?
• Who?
• Where?
• Why?
• How?
“Where” starts with federal protections
• Equal population
• Race/ethnicity and the Voting Rights Act
Equal population
• Congress: as equal as possible
• State legislature: 10% spread, if there’s a good reason
Baker v. Carr, 1962
“One person, one vote”
“Where” starts with federal protections
• Equal population
• Race/ethnicity and the Voting Rights Act
Minority representation
Cracking
Packing
The Voting Rights Act• Do minorities
represent most of the voters in a concentrated area?
• Do white voters vote for different candidates than minorities?
Section 2
The Voting Rights ActSection 2 • Do minorities represent most
of the voters in a concentrated area?
• Do whites tend to vote for different candidates than minorities?
• Is the minority population otherwise protected given the “totality of the circumstances”?
Do Not Dilute
Complying with the Voting Rights Act
Latino/HispanicAfrican-American
Chicago suburbs
The Voting Rights Act
Section 5
• “Preclearance” for certain jurisdictions
• Is the new map intended to dilute minority votes?
• Does the new map leave minority voters worse off?
Race and ethnicity beyond the VRA
• Voting Rights Act protects minorities who are more than half of the voters in an area
• With smaller groups of minorities, it is OK to consider race and ethnicity, among other factors
• Race and ethnicity just can’t “predominate” without a really good reason
Warning signs when race or ethnicity “predominates,” outside of a VRA district
•Legislative testimony with sole focus on race
•Population data much more detailed for race
•Shape explained by race, but not by “traditional districting factors”
Race and ethnicity beyond the VRA
After federal law, add state limitations
• Contiguity
• Political boundaries
• Compactness
• Communities of interest
• Partisanship/competition
• Nesting
State leg.Congress
48 22
42 18
36 17
24 13
10 7
14 n/a
After federal law, add state limitations
• Contiguity
• Political boundaries
• Compactness
• Communities of interest
• Partisanship/competition
• Nesting
State leg.Congress
48 22
42 18
36 17
24 13
10 7
14 n/a
Contiguity
• All parts of the district are adjacent to each other
After federal law, add state limitations
• Contiguity
• Political boundaries
• Compactness
• Communities of interest
• Partisanship/competition
• Nesting
State leg.Congress
48 22
42 18
36 17
24 13
10 7
14 n/a
Political boundaries
• Follow county / city / town / ward lines
• But may split populations in strange ways
After federal law, add state limitations
• Contiguity
• Political boundaries
• Compactness
• Communities of interest
• Partisanship/competition
• Nesting
State leg.Congress
48 22
42 18
36 17
24 13
10 7
14 n/a
Compactness
• Usually concerns the appearance of the district(or how close people live to each other)
After federal law, add state limitations
• Contiguity
• Political boundaries
• Compactness
• Communities of interest
• Partisanship/competition
• Nesting
State leg.Congress
48 22
42 18
36 17
24 13
10 7
14 n/a
Communities of interest• Kansas -- “Social, cultural, racial, ethnic,
and economic interests common to the population of the area, which are probable subjects of legislation . . . should be considered. [S]ome communities of interest lend themselves more readily than others to being embodied in legislative districts. . .”Can and should be different in different parts of the state
Communities of interest• Social interests• Cultural interests• Racial / ethnic interests• Economic / trade interests • Geographic interests• Communication and
transportation networks• Media markets• Urban and rural interests• Occupations and lifestyles
After federal law, add state limitations
• Contiguity
• Political boundaries
• Compactness
• Communities of interest
• Partisanship/competition
• Nesting
State leg.Congress
48 22
42 18
36 17
24 13
10 7
14 n/a
Partisanship and competition
Two primary models:
• Prohibition on undue favoritism
• Affirmatively encourage competition
After federal law, add state limitations
• Contiguity
• Political boundaries
• Compactness
• Communities of interest
• Partisanship/competition
• Nesting
State leg.Congress
48 22
42 18
36 17
24 13
10 7
14 n/a
NestingSenateAssembly
Not nested
Nested
State legislature Congress (or local)
•Who? Legislature or commission (+ courts)
•Where? Equal population Equal populationVoting Rights Act Voting Rights
ActContiguityPolitical boundariesCompactnessCommunities of interestPartisanshipNesting
A quick review
Today’s conversation
• What?
• Who?
• Where?
• Why?
• How?
Why does redistricting matter?
If you care about
representation,
and you care about
political power,
then you care about
redistricting
should
• ~ 27 % of Congressional districts
were drawn to be competitive
• ~ 9 % of Congressional races
were competitive
• ~ 19 % of Congressional races
had no major party opponent
• ~ 25 % of state House raceswere competitive*
• ~ 40 % of state House races had no major party
opponent*
Blunt measure #1: voter choice
* 37 states measuredSource: Gary C. Jacobson, Competition in U.S.
Congressional ElectionsDavid Lublin & Michael McDonald, Is It Time to Draw the Line?
Campaign Finance
Term Limits
Redistricting
Source: Michael McDonald & John Samples, The Marketplace of Democracy 14
But redistricting is only part of the process
Blunt measure #2: shape
Is this a good district?
You can’t know if a district is “good,” unless you know what it’s trying to achieve
Is she a good singer?
And pretty shapes are not neutral
Source: Michael McDonald,
Midwest Mapping Project
Why does redistricting matter?
• Politicians choosing their voters• Eliminating incumbents or
challengers
Conflating public, partisan, personal interests
BarackObama’
shouse
• Barack Obama: strong challenge for Congress in 2000
2002 district
Conflating public, partisan, personal interests
Lorraine
Koppell ’s
house
• Lorraine Koppell: strong challenge for state Senate in 2000
2002 district
Conflating public, partisan, personal interests
Hakeem
Jeffries’s
house
• Hakeem Jeffries: strong challenge for state Assembly in 2000
2002 district
Why does redistricting matter?
• Politicians choosing their voters• Eliminating incumbents or
challengers
• Diluting minority votes• Splitting up communities
Today’s conversation
• What?
• Who?
• Where?
• Why?
• How?
How to make sure districts
are drawn in the public interest?
Principles for effective redistricting
1. Meaningful
transparency
2. Meaningful
independence
3. Meaningful
diversity
4. Meaningful
guidance
Principles for effective redistricting
1. Meaningful
transparency
2. Meaningful
independence
3. Meaningful
diversity
4. Meaningful
guidance
Meaningful transparency
• Multiple opportunities for meaningful public input
- Before drafts
- After drafts
• Data and tools to facilitate response
• Some explanation from redistricting body
Principles for effective redistricting
1. Meaningful
transparency
2. Meaningful
independence
3. Meaningful
diversity
4. Meaningful
guidance
Meaningful independence
• One of the players shouldn’t also be the umpire
• This is not the same as taking politics out of redistricting
• Legislature can still have a role
- Select those who draw the lines
- Review lines afterward
Principles for effective redistricting
1. Meaningful
transparency
2. Meaningful
independence
3. Meaningful
diversity
4. Meaningful
guidance
Meaningful diversity
• Those who draw the lines should reflect the state
• Need redistricting body of sufficient size
• Need rules/incentives to choose diverse membership
Principles for effective redistricting
1. Meaningful
transparency
2. Meaningful
independence
3. Meaningful
diversity
4. Meaningful
guidance
Meaningful guidance
• Criteria that reflect basic goals
• Enough flexibility to accommodate local exceptions
• Communities of interest
• Statewide majority is legislative majority
Public Participation• This round of redistricting will be
different than the past. The public will have new tools that will enable them to be more active participants in the redistricting process.
• These tools may be used for local redistricting.
Public Mapping Project
Michael McDonaldGeorge Mason UniversityBrookings Institution
Michael McDonaldGeorge Mason UniversityBrookings Institution
Micah AltmanHarvard UniversityBrookings Institution
Micah AltmanHarvard UniversityBrookings Institution
Robert CheethamAzaveaRobert CheethamAzavea
Supported byThe Sloan FoundationJoyce FoundationAmazon CorporationJudy Ford Wason Center at Christopher
Newport Univ.
Supported byThe Sloan FoundationJoyce FoundationAmazon CorporationJudy Ford Wason Center at Christopher
Newport Univ.