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UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom. mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom. mil Presentation to 28 ISMOR 31 August 2011 CAVEAT: Although informed by our presence in USAFRICOM, this presentation is solely the work of the authors and does not reflect official AFRICOM or USG Policy.
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UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson [email protected] Professor D.F. Davis [email protected].

Mar 31, 2015

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Page 1: UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom.mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom.mil.

UNCLASSIFIED

OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest

Developments

LTC Bret Wilson

[email protected]

Professor D.F. Davis

[email protected]

[email protected]

Presentation to

28 ISMOR

31 August 2011

CAVEAT: Although informed by our presence in USAFRICOM, this presentation is solely the work of the authors and does not reflect official AFRICOM or USG Policy.

Page 2: UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom.mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom.mil.

UNCLASSIFIED 2

DRAFTOur Evolving Mission

“United States Africa Command protects American lives and promotes our national interests by advancing security and stability in Africa. We follow two main lines of effort: building the security capacity of our African partners and preparing for a wide range of potential crises. U.S. Africa Command‘s operations, programs, and activities contribute to reducing the threats to our citizens and interests both abroad and at home by helping African states provide for their own security. We seek to enhance regional stability through support to and partnership with African regional organizations. Our planning and training are designed to prevent conflict while simultaneously ensuring that U.S. Africa Command is prepared to respond decisively to any crisis when the President so directs.”

… General Carter F. Ham

Underlining added

Page 3: UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom.mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom.mil.

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DRAFTThe Trajectory

Prior to the “Fall of the Wall” missions were find, fix and finish – or the equivalent

From 1991 – 2000, following Desert Storm the missions were more engagement and multi-lateral oriented

From 2000 – now? Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya From 2000 – now? Southern Command focuses on drugs and trafficking,

Africa Command is finding its way.

The mission leads the analysis. Or – we analyze what is important to the mission

Page 4: UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom.mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom.mil.

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DRAFTThings to do for Africa Command

Respond decisively; Protects American lives: Defense, extraction, freedom of access, Do stuff!

Promotes our national interests: Counter Terrorism, economic access

Security and stability: Governance, economics, rule of law, security

Building the security capacity; Provide for their own security: Training, equipping, mobilizing, Security Force Assistance

Enhance regional stability; Prevent conflict : Support to diplomacy, senior leader engagement, reconstruction

Range of potential crises: Natural, physical and social as well as complex conditions

Underlined portions of the mission statement reordered

(colloquial, non doctrinal terms): Enforcement of will activities Stability and prevention, Foreign capacity in support of our needs Disaster response

Page 5: UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom.mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom.mil.

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DRAFTOR Requirements

Enforcement of will activities Traditional OR tools and techniques to answer questions

concerning combat and logistics. Stability and prevention, Foreign capacity in support of our

needs Not well understood phenomena, non-kinetic responses,

social and economic environment, data is lacking. Almost 100% indirect through other agencies of

government.Disaster response

Well understood tools used to determine logistical, medical and engineering requirements. But traditional OR not responsive to emergent requirements.

Page 6: UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom.mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom.mil.

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DRAFTOR in the U.S. African Command

Where and Who

J-8 Resources

J-80 Requirements and Capabilities J80-O Operations Research – All trained OR analysts J80-A Strategic Assessment – 25% OR trained, others are staff officers

J-2 Intelligence – some staff officers trained in OR J-3 Operations – some staff officers trained in OR J-5 Plans – few staff officers trained in OR J-9 Outreach – only one staff officer trained in OR

Source of studies

Page 7: UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom.mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom.mil.

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DRAFTHow it has played out…

Initial focus on assessment – Theater Objectives and Effects are collected against, and a formal assessment

process is conducted. Now changing – more focus on regions than full AOR – recognition of the

regional differences

Analytic support to the planners as they attempt to integrate legacy products into the new Command Mission. Not typical OR utilization, but OR skills at problem definition central to the process. This has taken much of the oxygen from the OR atmosphere.

Studies done, under the veil of assessment, on Security Force Assistance in DRC, Liberia, Sudan and larger scale activities in support of counter terrorism – assessment (metrics) frameworks and subjective data analysis.

Some traditional force structure analysis – but of AMISOM and other partners, not of a coalition - as is done in NATO.

Strategic gaming for Sudan and Somalia – building an appetite for more, when more may not be within the capability of the OR resource.

Page 8: UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom.mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom.mil.

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DRAFTWhat next?

Post Libya organizational studies – directorates to J – codes. Where should things go?

Regional studies: What is meant by regions, what do we know about inter-crisis effects, does it matter?

Refocusing on decision support and not assessment for the file. More focused planning support beyond problem definition:

Impact of potential activities Portfolio solutions between nations – where to expand efforts and where to back

off.

Page 9: UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom.mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom.mil.

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DRAFTWhat is needed

Tools and techniques to support the softer, supporting (as opposed to supported) studies: Software Models and Simulation

Continued assignment of trained OR personnel Matching the two!

Of course – what every ORSA needs: Access to useful data to support the analytic requirements. Demographics, state capacities, social, cultural and environmental.

Page 10: UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom.mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom.mil.

UNCLASSIFIED 10

DRAFTQuestions?

http://www.economist.com/blogs/dailychart/2010/11/cartography, 8/8/11

Page 11: UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom.mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom.mil.

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DRAFTBackups

Page 12: UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom.mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom.mil.

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DRAFT

http://bertc.com/subfour/truth/night2.htm, 8/8/11

Page 13: UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom.mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom.mil.

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DRAFT

http://maps.howstuffworks.com/world-population-density-map.htm, 8/8/11

Page 14: UNCLASSIFIED OR Support for Planning in the US Africa Command – Latest Developments LTC Bret Wilson Bret.Wilson@africom.mil Professor D.F. Davis David.Davis@africom.mil.

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DRAFTOther Missions

CENTCOM: With national and international partners, U.S. Central Command promotes cooperation among nations, responds to crises, and deters or defeats state and nonstate aggression, and supports development and, when necessary, reconstruction in order to establish the conditions for regional security, stability, and prosperity.

EUCOM: The mission of the U.S. European Command is to conduct military operations, international military engagement, and interagency partnering to enhance transatlantic security and defend the United States forward. We do this by establishing an agile military organization with a "whole of government" approach seeking to support enduring stability and peace in Europe and Eurasia.

PACOM: U.S. Pacific Command (USPACOM), together with other U.S. Government agencies, protects and defends the United States, its territories, Allies, and interests; alongside Allies and partners, promotes regional security and deters aggression; and, if deterrence fails, is prepared to respond to the full spectrum of military contingencies to restore Asia-Pacific stability and security.

SOUTHCOM: We are ready to conduct joint and combined full-spectrum military operations and support whole-of-government efforts to enhance regional security and cooperation.

Public Mission Statements from http://www.{command}.mil, accessed 8 Aug ‘11

Underlining added