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Perspectives on Utah’s Economy Spring 2013 Department of Workforce Services Occupational distribution by gender Where Utahns work How the recession impacted Utah families Self-employment and commuting patterns of UTAH'S WORKFORCE MAKING GAINS: Improvement in the national economy COMMUNITY American Survey Utah demographic and labor market information from the
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Trendlines, Spring 2013

Sep 13, 2014

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Page 1: Trendlines, Spring 2013

Perspectives on Utah’s Economy Spring 2013

Department of Workforce Services

• Occupational distribution by gender

• Where Utahns

work

• How the recession impacted

Utah families

Self-employment and commuting patterns of

utah's workforce

Making gainS: improvement in the national economy

communityAmerican

Survey

Utah demographic and labor market

informationfrom the

Page 2: Trendlines, Spring 2013

2 Spring 2013

Trendlines

jobs.utah.gov

Utah Department of Workforce Services

Executive Director

Jon Pierpont

Workforce Research and Analysis

Rick Little, Director

Carrie Mayne, Chief Economist

Contributors

Mark Knold

Lecia Parks Langston

Natalie Torosyan

Jim Robson

Nate Talley

John Krantz

Eric Martinson

MeLauni Jensen

Editor

Kathy Sturzenegger

Designer

Pat Swenson

Trendlines is published quarterly by the Workforce Research and Analysis Division. To download this publication go to http://jobs.utah.gov/wi. Click on Publications and select the one you want from the list. To obtain additional printed copies or to subscribe to Trendlines contact:

Department of Workforce ServicesAttn: WRA140 East 300 South • SLC, UT 84111801-526-9785 • Fax: 801-526-9238Email: [email protected]

The Workforce Research and Analysis Division generates accurate, timely and understandable data and analyses to provide knowledge of ever-changing workforce environments that support sound planning and decision-making.

ear readers:

Information developments such as those from the latest American Community Survey (ACS) are especially important to our organization as we assist our customers in their pursuit of gainful employment and economic independence. From the large corporation looking for talent in the Salt Lake City labor pool to the individual in Richfield looking for a new job, demographic and labor market information are essential tools in our mission to support the Utah workforce system.

This latest round of ACS results includes updates to the small county data, allowing us to better understand the dynamics of the economies off the Wasatch Front. In this issue of Trendlines, you will

find highlighted facts from the small county estimates; analyses about occupational distribution by gender, self-employment and commuting patterns of the Utah workforce; and various other topics.

I hope that you find this issue of Trendlines to be a valuable source of information as you navigate the Utah labor market. Our economy is growing and economic opportunity is on the rebound. Taking full advantage of that rebound, whether for business expansion or career development, requires accurate information about current opportunities. Please take advantage of the services our department offers as you seek to benefit from this economic expansion.

sincerely,

Jon Pierpont, Executive Director, Department of Workforce Services

AmericanCommunity Survey Results for Utah

D

communityAmerican

Survey

Page 3: Trendlines, Spring 2013

Equal Opportunity Employer/ProgramAuxiliary aids and services are available upon request

to individuals with disabilities by calling 801-526-9240. Individuals with speech or hearing

impairments may call the Relay Utah bydialing 711. Spanish Relay Utah: 1-888-346-3162.

jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 3

4 Time for New Housing GrowthWasatch Front and Statewide

6 Equal Opportunity and the Labor ForceEconomic News

8 Making Gains: Improvement in the

National EconomyNational News

10Industries and Occupations

of the Self-EmployedEconomic Insight

12The Lingering Effects

of the Great RecessionThe Outlook

14 Big Facts about Small Counties in UtahFYI

16 Cross-County CommutingWhat's Happening

18Household Income: An Urban/Rural

ComparisonThe Outskirts

20 Loan OfficerOccupations

22The Great Recession

Increased Poverty RatesInsider News

24Breaking the Cycle: Intergenerational

Poverty in UtahDWS News

26 Real Estate and Rental and LeasingIndustry Highlight

27 Just the Facts...Rate Update

contents

Utah Demographics from the American Community Survey

Perspectives on Utah’s EconomySpring 2013

Department of Workforce Services

• Occupational distribution by gender

• Where Utahns

work

• How the recession impacted

Utah families

Self-employment and commuting patterns of

UTAH'S WORKFORCE

MAKING GAINS: Improvement in the national economy

COMMUNITYAmerican

Survey

Utah demographic and labor market

informationfrom the

pg. 8

pg. 18

Page 4: Trendlines, Spring 2013

4 Spring 2013

wasatch front and statewide | by mark knold, senior economist

One major economic setback from the Great Recession was a historic reduction in new home permitting and building. That wouldn’t be a problem if the population only grew at half its normal pace, but that’s not what happened in Utah. The young adult population size continues

to expand in Utah, and that population segment is where we get most new household formations. New housing activity is likely to increase as pent-up housing demand in Utah should start to release its influence in 2013.

Time for New HousingGrowth

Page 5: Trendlines, Spring 2013

jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 5jobs.utah.gov/wi

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Di�erence between Utah Population Growth and Housing Permits

This chart depicts the difference between the growth in the 16 and older population and the number of new housing permits. The higher the bar, the wider the difference between

population growth and new home building. This implies under-building and pent-up demand.

Difference Between Utah Population Growth and Housing Permits

Page 6: Trendlines, Spring 2013

6 Spring 2013

economic news | by mark knold, senior economist

qual Employment Opportunity (EEO) is not only part of the American labor lexicon, but also part of the law. Businesses

bidding on federal contracts need to reflect local labor force diversity; in other words, your company’s labor profile should have a similar composition as the labor profile in your state or local community. The U.S. Census Bureau uses the American Community Survey (ACS) EEO tabulation to paint your local area’s labor profiles.

Major occupational categories comprise the labor force, such as managers or production workers, and then are further dissected by gender, race and Hispanic origin.

The occupational category with the most Utah employment is administrative support (over 220,000 workers). This long occupational list includes jobs like accounting and customer service representatives. The next category is another broadly inclusive area called service workers (around 162,000 Utah workers), including health care assistants, legal assistants, food preparers and servers, landscape workers and a list of others. The next categories are management occupations (158,600), sales workers (over 156,000) and other professionals (144,400), which include education and legal professionals.

labor forceequal opportunity and the

EMajor occupational categories are dissected by gender, race and hispanic origin.

Page 7: Trendlines, Spring 2013

jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 7

Not surprisingly, males heavily dominate some occupational areas. Most of these are physically demanding occupations, like construction, maintenance and repair, transportation and handling, and laborers. Construction is made up of 98 percent male workers. Maintenance and repair is 93 percent male, and the science, engineering and computer areas are 83 percent male.

Females dominate other areas, such as administrative support, a broad category called services, the health care arena and then other professionals, another broad category.

The Hispanic community does not dominate a particular area, but they do congregate in certain occupational groups, starting with service workers and then through construction, administrative support, production and sales. Hispanics work in all occupational areas, but these are their prominent fields.

People are free to choose where they work and in what occupational fields, but EEO data shows us how the aggregation of those individual decisions creates various groupings in the economy.

utah top hispanic

occupational groups

utah occupations doMinated

by WoMen

equal employment opportunity data shows us how our

work choices create various groupings in

the economy.

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

Service Workers Construction AdministrativeSupport

Production Sales Workers

Utah Top Hispanic Occupational Groups

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

AdministrativeSupport

ServicesEx. Protective

Health Care Practitionerand Technical

OtherProfessionals

Female Male

Source: Census 2006, 2010 American Community Survey, EEO Tabulation

Page 8: Trendlines, Spring 2013

8 Spring 2013

national news | by mark knold, senior economist

The United States economy is on the mend but still has a way to go to fill the economic holes opened by the Great Recession. After five years,

the country has recaptured a little over half of the lost jobs, recovering 5.5 million of 8.7 million lost.

Of encouragement is that the pace of job creation has recently increased. Almost 1.9 million new jobs were created in 2012 and over 2.0 million in 2011. U.S. employment growth slowed noticeably at the end of 2011 into the early months of 2012, but if we look at the most recent six months of employment growth and convert it to an annualized average, the economy is on track to add 2.1 million new jobs.

Many industries are still working to regain their pre-recession employment. Some still have a

protracted way to go. Both construction and manufacturing jobs posted significant losses during the recession, and both have recovered only a small percentage of their pre-recession employment. Trade, transportation and utilities also lost sizeable employment counts but is further along the path to recovery than construction and manufacturing. Information, financial services and other services are also areas where the job counts remain below pre-recession levels.

Government employment is also below pre-recession levels, but it’s unique in that

it has recovered no new jobs from its pre-recession high. In fact, it is still shedding jobs.

Government includes the federal, state and local jurisdictions. Whereas the state and local areas

appear to be leveling their job losses, the federal government continues to cut. The aggregation of the

three makes for continued job reductions.

Improvement in the National Economy

Making Gains:

Almost 1.9 million jobs were created in 2012 and over 2 million in 2011.

8 Spring 2013

Page 9: Trendlines, Spring 2013

jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 9

U.S. Nonfarm Industry Profile (Numeric Change) 2007–2013

U.S. Emloyment 2003–2013Monthly

124,000

126,000

128,000

130,000

132,000

134,000

136,000

138,000

140,000

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Employment (000)

122

2,088

2,286

2,189

393

698

1,660

0

616

225

1,148

209

349

517

1,289

64

170

1,850

1,975

1,021

167

0

Natural Resources

Construction

Manufacturing

Trade, Trans., Utilities

Information

Financial Activities

Education and Health

Government

U.S. Nonfarm Industry Pro�le (Numeric Change)2007 - 2013

Prof. and Business

Leisure and Hospitality

Other Services

Employment loss from pre-recessionpeak to recession low

Employment gain from recession low to February 2013(thousands)

Several industries have recovered their pre-recession jobs and are growing to new highs. Private sector education and health care stands out as the only sectors that did not lose jobs during the recession and subsequent period.

The economy is improving. Momentum is building. The next two years offer hope that it will continue.

Private sector education and health care stand out as the only sectors that did not lose jobs during the recession.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, CES seasonally adjusted

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, seasonally adjusted

Page 10: Trendlines, Spring 2013

10 Spring 2013

economic insight | by john krantz, economist

According to the most recent American Community Survey (ACS) data, 6.2 percent of workers in the

United States and 4.6 percent in Utah were classified as self-employed during 2011. Economists suggest that many are self-employed due to a lack of alternative labor market opportunities, but economic research shows that is true for only a small group. The two most important motivations behind self-employment are independence (i.e., running your own business) and the nature of the occupation (i.e., work is more suited to self-employment). While alternative data sources cannot illustrate all motives for self-employment, ACS data does reveal that self-employment tends to occur more within particular occupations and industries.

Figures 1 and 2 compare self-employment rates for Utah and the United States along major industry and occupational groups. The rates represent the percentages of self-employed workers within industries or occupations compared to all other wage and salary workers. Figure 1 demonstrates that self-employment in Utah by industry group is roughly similar to the United States except in two cases: natural resources/mining and construction. The industries are ranked from top to bottom by the highest rates for Utah. Utah self-employment rates for these industries are only about half the U.S. rates. The fact that the other services, construction and professional/business services industries are at the top is a reflection not only of the products produced, but also of the occupations associated with these industries. As Figure 2 shows, three of the top four occupational groups ranked by self-employment rates correspond closely with the top-ranked industries.

Workers pursue self-employment for many different reasons. Some occupations are better suited to self-employment due to low start-up costs, fewer regulations and ease of acquiring the necessary skills infor-mally. With many particular occupations concentrated within specific industries, the “occupational choice” motive also in-fluences the self-employment rates across industries.

of the Self-Employed

Industries and

The

OccupationsA look at how self-employment rates for Utah

compare with rates for the United States

Page 11: Trendlines, Spring 2013

jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 11

Figure 1: Self-Employed and Unpaid Family Worker Ratesby Industry Groups, 2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey One-Year Estimates

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Manufacturing

Transportation/Warehousing/Utilities Information

Leisure/Hospitality Educational/Health Services

Wholesale Trade Retail Trade

Total Employment Financial Activities

Natural Resources/Mining Professional/Business Services

Construction Other Services

Figure 1. Self-Employed and Unpaid Family Worker Rates by Industry Groups, 2011

United States Utah

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Farming/Fishing/Forestry Food Preparation/Serving-Related

Office/Administrative Support Material Moving

Production Transportation

Computer/Engineering/Science Health Care Practitioners/Technicians

Installation/Maintenance/Repair Health Care Support

Education/Legal/Community Service/Arts/MediaSales and Related

Management/Business/Financial Construction/Extraction

Building and Grounds Cleaning/Maintenance Personal Care and Service

Figure 2. Self-Employed and Unpaid Family Worker Rates by Occupational Groups, 2011

United States Utah

Figure 2: Self-Employed and Unpaid Family Worker Ratesby Occupational Groups, 2011

Page 12: Trendlines, Spring 2013

12 Spring 2013

the outlook | by eric martinson, economist

To what extent are the effects of the Great Recession still noticeable in Utah’s largest metropolitan areas? Recently released data from

the U.S. Census Bureau’s American Community Survey (ACS) allows for a pre-recession to post-recession analysis of the following Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs): Logan, Ogden-Clearfield, Provo-Orem, St. George and Salt Lake City. Not surprisingly, we have seen some significant changes since the onset of the Great Recession.

Labor ForceThe 2011 ACS reports significantly lower levels of employment in all of the five Utah MSAs than in 2007, which comes as no surprise. More recent sources of labor force statistics, however, tell us that the level of employment at the end of 2012 is near to 2007 levels of employment in Logan, Ogden-Clearfield and Provo-Orem. Employment in the Salt Lake MSA has actually surpassed 2007 levels, while St. George MSA employment remains significantly lower.

Despite the effects of the Great Recession, the changes in labor force participation rates (share of the 16 and older population who are working or seeking work) in all metro areas except Logan were not statistically significant. Logan’s labor force participation rate dropped from 72.6 percent in 2007 to 69.6 percent by 2011.

IncomeGenerally speaking, the lowest income brackets increased their share of households over the five-year period as mid-upper income brackets typically decreased their share. Figure 1 displays the 2007–2011 changes in household income and benefits in more detail. Median household annual income also shows a statistically significant decrease in four of the five metro areas (Figure 2).

PovertyPredictably, poverty increased in most metropolitan areas in Utah in the wake of the largest recession

A pre- to post-recession comparison of ACS economic indicators

The Lingering Effects of the

Great Recession

Page 13: Trendlines, Spring 2013

jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 13

since the Great Depression. For example, in the Salt Lake MSA, the percentage of families whose previous 12-month income was below the poverty level doubled from 5.6 percent in 2007 to 11.2 percent in 2011, virtually identical to outcomes in the Provo and St. George metros as well. Higher poverty levels hit various groups of people as well as families of various compositions: families with young children (under five years), families with older children (5–17 years), working-age individuals and retirement-age individuals all saw more incomes below the poverty level.

The recent recession has changed the economic landscape in ways that are still significant in larger Utah metropolitan areas. Incomes are still lower for many Utahns. In fact, more Utah residents have income below the poverty level than before the recession. Even employment levels remain lower in some areas of the state.

$49,264

$63,932

$62,107

$50,667

$62,208

$46,356

$60,922*

$58,398*

$45,854*

$57,005*

Logan, UT-IDMetro Area

Metro Area

Metro Area

Metro Area

Metro Area

Ogden-Clear�eld, UT

Provo-Orem, UT

St. George, UT

Salt Lake City, UT

Figure 2: Median Annual Household Income 2007 ACS 1-Year Estimates vs. 2011 ACS 1-Year Estimates

Metroplitan Statistical Areas of Utah

2007

2011

Figure 1:Change in Total Household Income and Benefits

2011 ACS One-Year Estimates vs. 2007 ACS One-Year EstimatesMetropolitan Statistical Areas of Utah

Figure 2:Medial Annual Household Income

2007 ACS One-Year Estimates vs. 2011 ACS One-Year EstimatesMetropolitan Statistical Areas of Utah

Source: American Community Survey, U.S. Census Bureau

Indicates that the 2011 estimate is significantly different (at a 90 percent confidence level) than the 2007 estimate.

*Indicates that the 2011 estimate is significantly different (at a 90 percent confidence level) than the 2007 estimate.

Logan, UT-ID Metro Area

Ogden-Clearfield, UT Metro Area

Provo-Orem, UT Metro Area

St. George, UT Metro Area

Salt Lake City, UT Metro Area

2011 2007 2011 2007 2011 2007 2011 2007 2011 2007 Less than $10,000 5.40% 3.30% 4.90% 4.50% 5.20% 3.80% 5.80% 1.60% 5.90% 4.00%

$10,000 to $14,999 4.20% 4.00% 3.40% 2.60% 4.60% 2.90% 6.00% 3.70% 4.20% 3.80% $15,000 to $24,999 13.30% 11.10% 7.70% 6.30% 9.40% 7.20% 9.90% 10.00% 9.40% 7.20% $25,000 to $34,999 12.60% 16.60% 10.50% 8.00% 9.30% 10.50% 12.10% 13.40% 9.90% 8.90% $35,000 to $49,999 17.10% 15.60% 13.30% 14.50% 13.70% 14.40% 22.00% 19.80% 13.90% 13.90% $50,000 to $74,999 20.70% 19.80% 21.90% 22.90% 23.80% 22.20% 18.40% 23.20% 22.30% 22.20% $75,000 to $99,999 12.40% 14.30% 15.30% 16.70% 13.70% 16.20% 13.60% 12.90% 13.10% 15.50%

$100,000 to $149,999 10.60% 11.90% 14.90% 15.60% 13.10% 15.50% 8.10% 10.80% 13.50% 14.90% $150,000 to $199,999 2.20% 2.00% 4.30% 5.10% 4.10% 3.80% 2.20% 2.10% 4.10% 5.50%

$200,000 or more 1.60% 1.50% 3.90% 3.90% 3.20% 3.50% 1.90% 2.30% 3.70% 4.00%

Page 14: Trendlines, Spring 2013

14 Spring 2013

fyi | by lecia parks langston, economist

Residents least likely to move — 96 percent of residents in Piute County are living in the same home as a year ago.

Big Facts about Small Counties in Utah Using the American Community Survey to Understand Where You Live

Thanks to the American Community Survey, even small counties

routinely get updated average demographic data every year. Now inquiring minds don’t have to wait a decade for the decennial census to gain the knowledge that enables good decision-making.

The Census Bureau keeps rolling out new and easier ways to access American Community Survey information. Those intimidated by a full-fledged American FactFinder data search can use the web sites listed on the facing page. Individuals in small, medium and large counties can easily track and understand up-to-date demographics using American Community Survey data.

6.2% $37,000

$85,000

Least likely

Percent of Kane County's population under the age of 5, the smallest share of the population in Utah. That share is only slightly lower than the U.S. average of 6.5 percent.

Daggett County shows the smallest share of females in Utah. Only 44 percent

of Daggett County’s population is female compared to 50 percent for Utah.

Piute County’s population ranks as the oldest in Utah. Roughly 22 percent of this county’s population is over the age of 65 compared to only 9 percent statewide.

The lowest median household income in Utah — Piute County (less than $37,000).

37%Juab County's

percentage of population under the age of 18 —nationally, only 24 percent of the population is under the age of 18.

Compare Piute County's figure to Summit County’s median household income of almost $85,000.

Page 15: Trendlines, Spring 2013

Trendlines 15jobs.utah.gov/wi

Percent of Population One Year and Older Residing in Same

House One Year Ago, 2007–2011

12.1 minutes The average amount of time

Garfield County workers spend on average traveling to work. That’s far shorter than the average Utah commute

time of more than 21 minutes.

85%

2.14 persons

0.4%

47%

50%

The smallest foreign-born population in Utah is only 0.4 percent in Rich County, as opposed to 8 percent statewide that were born outside the U.S.

Number of Summit County’s 25-years-plus population that has attained at least a bachelor’s degree — the highest level in Utah. On average, only 30 percent of Utahns have at least a four-year degree.

The percentage of homes in Morgan County occupied by their owners, Utah’s highest home-ownership rate, compared to 71 percent across the state.

Guided search factfinder2.census.gov

QuickFacts quickfacts.census.gov

Easy Stats census.gov/easystats/

The average household size in Daggett County, in contrast to the state average of 3.06.

Highest percentage of non-English-speaking in the home is found in San Juan County, with its high percentage of Native American population.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau; American Community Survey

76.5%78.3%79.0%79.3%80.6%81.2%82.3%82.5%83.4%84.0%84.3%84.4%84.5%84.6%84.9%85.4%85.4%86.8%87.0%87.1%87.3%87.3%88.1%88.2%88.7%88.9%89.2%90.3%92.0%92.9%95.8%

CacheUtahIronDaggettSanpeteWashingtonState of UtahSalt LakeWayneUintahCarbonWeberDavisUnited StatesGrandTooeleDuchesneSevierGar�eldWasatchBox ElderEmeryMillardSummitJuabKaneBeaverRichSan JuanMorganPiute

Percent of Population One Year and Older Residing in Same House One Year Ago

2007 to 2011

Page 16: Trendlines, Spring 2013

16 Spring 2013

what's happening | by jim robson, economist

Most workers in Utah must travel some distance each day to get to work. From 2007 to 2011, there were an annual average of 1,234,094

workers at least 16 years old in Utah. About 59,417 of the employed, or 4.8 percent, worked from home. The remaining 95.2 percent (1,174,677) commuted to work, with almost 80 percent traveling by vehicle and driving alone.

The U.S. Census Bureau gathers these labor force and commuting statistics through the American Community Survey (ACS). All household members 16 years or older are asked if they worked during the week before. If they did, they are asked for the address of their work site and how long it took to get there in minutes. Travel times include walking, biking, riding public transit, carpooling or driving alone. In Utah, those who do not work at home have an average one-way commute of 21.4 minutes. Figure 1 shows average travel time to work by county.

By comparing home addresses to work addresses, the Census Bureau determines how many commuters travel large distances to get to work. The most common measurement is the number of resident workers that

travel outside their own county. Figure 2 ranks Utah’s counties based on the percentage of workers who leave their county to work.

Most Utah commuters work among the major cities along the Wasatch Front. Utah’s four largest urban counties — Salt Lake, Utah, Davis and Weber — had 75.4 percent of the population and 79.4 percent of the nonfarm payroll jobs in 2011. Cross-county commuting among the large metro counties and all adjacent counties is extensive. Salt Lake County receives the largest inflows of workers as the seat of state government, with many business headquarters and the international airport.

As Utah’s population has continued to grow most heav-ily in and around the Wasatch Front in recent decades, commuting times and distances have continued to in-crease, whether by car, bus, light rail or heavy rail.

Cross-County Commuting

Commuting times continue to increase, regardless of the

choice of travel.

Page 17: Trendlines, Spring 2013

jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 17jobs.utah.gov/wijobs.utah.gov/wi

Figure 2: Share of Resident Workers Leavingthe County to Work, 2007–2011

Figure 1: Average Travel Time to Work in Minutes, 2007–2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey 2007–2011 5-year estimates

County Average Commute Time to Work County Percent Leaving County to Work

Tooele 29.0 Morgan 64.5%Morgan 26.3 Davis 46.9%Summit 24.3 Tooele 45.8%Juab 23.7 Wasatch 44.9%Davis 22.9 Juab 38.8%Wasatch 22.9 Weber 33.1%Box Elder 22.2 Piute 30.1%Duchesne 22.1 Box Elder 28.5%Salt Lake 22.0 Summit 27.0%Weber 21.6 Emery 24.6%State Average 21.4 Rich 22.7%Piute 21.0 Sanpete 20.7%Utah 20.8 Duchesne 19.3%San Juan 20.6 Kane 18.6%Emery 20.4 San Juan 18.5%Uintah 20.2 State Average 18.1%Sanpete 19.5 Utah 17.2%Kane 18.7 Daggett 14.2%Rich 18.6 Carbon 12.5%Washington 17.8 Beaver 11.5%Millard 17.4 Uintah 11.3%Carbon 17.2 Iron 10.3%Iron 17.2 Gar�eld 9.3%Cache 16.8 Cache 9.2%Daggett 15.7 Millard 9.1%Beaver 15.6 Sevier 8.9%Sevier 15.2 Wayne 8.5%Grand 12.9 Salt Lake 7.1%Wayne 12.3 Washington 5.7%Gar�eld 12.1 Grand 3.6%

Figure 1: Average Travel Time to Work in Minutes, 2007 to 2011

Figure 2: Share of Resident Workers Leaving the County to Work, 2007 to 2011

County Average Commute Time to Work County Percent Leaving County to Work

Tooele 29.0 Morgan 64.5%Morgan 26.3 Davis 46.9%Summit 24.3 Tooele 45.8%Juab 23.7 Wasatch 44.9%Davis 22.9 Juab 38.8%Wasatch 22.9 Weber 33.1%Box Elder 22.2 Piute 30.1%Duchesne 22.1 Box Elder 28.5%Salt Lake 22.0 Summit 27.0%Weber 21.6 Emery 24.6%State Average 21.4 Rich 22.7%Piute 21.0 Sanpete 20.7%Utah 20.8 Duchesne 19.3%San Juan 20.6 Kane 18.6%Emery 20.4 San Juan 18.5%Uintah 20.2 State Average 18.1%Sanpete 19.5 Utah 17.2%Kane 18.7 Daggett 14.2%Rich 18.6 Carbon 12.5%Washington 17.8 Beaver 11.5%Millard 17.4 Uintah 11.3%Carbon 17.2 Iron 10.3%Iron 17.2 Gar�eld 9.3%Cache 16.8 Cache 9.2%Daggett 15.7 Millard 9.1%Beaver 15.6 Sevier 8.9%Sevier 15.2 Wayne 8.5%Grand 12.9 Salt Lake 7.1%Wayne 12.3 Washington 5.7%Gar�eld 12.1 Grand 3.6%

Figure 1: Average Travel Time to Work in Minutes, 2007 to 2011

Figure 2: Share of Resident Workers Leaving the County to Work, 2007 to 2011

A cross section of the Utah population was surveyed

regarding their mode of travel, and the time it took to get to

their work site.

Page 18: Trendlines, Spring 2013

18 Spring 2013

the outskirts | by john krantz, economist

Average household income is an important measure of the relative economic well-being

of counties, regions and states. Eco-nomic resources and demographics broadly determine a region’s level of household income. The Ameri-can Community Survey (ACS) data on household income sources pro-vide insights into the differences in average household income between rural counties and their urban counterparts.

Table 1 classifies Utah’s counties ac-cording to a three-part classification system used by the Office of Man-agement and Budget. The statistics are based on aggregating household information across counties within three geographical area types.

The sources of income data provid-ed by the ACS include earnings, So-cial Security, retirement, Supplemen-tal Security Income (SSI) and cash public assistance. Average household income depends on the average level of each source and the percent-age of households receiving that source. Average earnings depend primarily on a region’s economic resources. The average levels of the other sources vary less and are not as closely related to local resources. The percentage of households receiving an income source is influenced strongly by demographics, especially age. For example, the percentage of households receiving Social Security is essentially a function of the size of the elderly population.

As Figure 1 reveals, earnings constitute the largest component of household income. Average levels

vary considerably across regions. The levels of average earnings and average household income are nearly identical, showing that earned income is the most important determinant of household income. The differences in average earnings across regions reflect differences in economic resources.

Retirement income and Social Se-curity are also important income sources, whereas SSI and cash public assistance are largely unrelated to average household income.

Age structure also explains levels of household income. As Figure 2 shows, a smaller share of households in rural counties received earned income and a higher share of house-holds received Social Security and re-tirement income. Utah’s rural coun-ties tend to have older populations.

Because very few individuals con-tinue to work after receiving Social Security, household income for re-tirees will generally be much lower.

In the future, all Utah counties will eventually shift toward a relatively larger retired population and a rel-atively smaller working-age popu-lation, a transformation the nation will undergo sooner. With Social Security and retirement income, average household income growth will likely be slower.

Maintaining high household in-come growth rates in the future will depend crucially on boosting the average level of earnings re-ceived by proportionally fewer workers.

Hou$ehold IncomeAn Urban/Rural Comparison

Geographical Regions

Counties within Geographical Regions

Mean Household

Income

Metropolitan

Cache, Davis, Juab, Morgan, Salt Lake,

Summit, Tooele, Utah, Washington and Weber

$73,949

Micropolitan Box Elder, Carbon, Iron, Uintah and Wasatch $62,983

Rural

Beaver, Daggett, Duchesne, Emery,

Garfield, Grand, Kane, Millard, Piute, Rich, San

Juan, Sanpete, Sevier and Wayne

$56,820

Table 1. Geographical Classification of Utah's Counties

Page 19: Trendlines, Spring 2013

jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 19

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

Earnings Social Security Retirement Supplemental Security

Cash Public Assistance

Metropolitan Micropolitan Rural

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Earnings Social Security Retirement Supplemental Security

Cash Public Assistance

Metropolitan Micropolitan Rural

Figure 1: Average Levels of Household Income by Source, 2007–2013

Figure 2: Percent of Households Receiving Various Income Sources, 2007

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey Five-Year Estimates

Page 20: Trendlines, Spring 2013

A loan officer, as defined by the Standard Occupational Classification system, is one who evaluates, authorizes or recommends approval of commercial, real estate or

credit loans. Loan officers can be found in a variety of settings, performing job duties in a number of unique contexts.

Commercial loan officers specialize in meeting a business’s borrowing needs. Customers range from prospective entrepreneurs seeking start-up funds to established companies looking to make capital investments in operations. Consumer loan officers underwrite loans to people for personal use, such as purchasing a vehicle. Loan officers working in this capacity can be found at banks, credit unions and many familiar walk-in financial institutions. Mortgage loan officers underwrite loans for residential and commercial properties. Mortgage loan officers must have strong networking abilities, as they often receive referrals from real estate companies and other contacts.

Entry into the loan officer occupation requires at least a high school diploma. However, many loan officer positions require a bachelor’s degree in finance or a business-related field, as

well as a state-sanctioned loan originator license.

Loan officer employment was particularly susceptible to contraction during the most

recent recessionary period. As the housing bubble deflated and lending reforms swept

the nation, national demand for loan officers in the finance and insurance industry decreased,

even relative to other business and financial occupations in the industry. Fortunately, loan officer employment growth is expected to regain traction, as the current national long-term

occupations | by nate talley, economist

Loan Officer

20 Spring 2013

Do you like working with people and do you have strong networking capabilities?

Page 21: Trendlines, Spring 2013

jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 21

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services and Bureau of Labor Statistics, (2012)

Percent Changein Employment by 3-Year Intervals (2005 to 2008 and 2008 to 2011)

in the Finance and Insurance Industry

-0.9%

-6.0%

7.6%

-3.7%

-5.0%

-12.6%-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

2008

2011

Percent Change in Employment by 3 Year Intervals (2005 to 2008 and 2008 to 2011) in the Finance and Insurance

All Finance and Insurance Employment

Business and Financial Occupations Employment

Loan O�cer Employment

projections for loan officers indicate that growth will be about as fast as the average for all occupations.

There are about 5,150 loan officers in Utah, earning an average hourly wage of $27.34. Utah employs loan officers at the highest rate in the nation, producing a location quotient of 1.99. Location quotients measure the concentration of an occupation within one area compared to another. In this case, a location quotient of 1.99 means that relative to our employment base, Utah

employs loan officers at a rate that is nearly twice the rate of the nation. Also in contrast to the nation, Utah loan officer employment growth is projected to outpace total occupational employment growth through the year 2020.

In sum, while recent economic conditions have been less than kind to loan officers, the occupation offers above average wages, employment is rebounding and prospects look better in Utah than elsewhere.

Employment 5,150

Mean Hourly Wage

$27.34

Projected Annual Growth Rate through

2013

3.0%

Projected Annual Growth Rate through

2020

3.4%

Location Quotient

1.99

Labor Statistics for Loan Officers

in Utah

Page 22: Trendlines, Spring 2013

22 Spring 2013

insider news | by natalie torosyan, economist

With the release of the 2011 American Community Survey (ACS) by the U.S.

Census Bureau come fresh statistics on the nature of poverty in the nation. Poverty status is determined by a family’s total income for a given family size, based on thresholds established by the Census Bureau. If total family income is below the threshold, each family member is considered in poverty. In 2011, the poverty threshold for a family of four including two children below the age of 18 was $22,811.

U.S. Poverty TrendsIn the United States, before the impact of the recession was felt, the proportion of Americans living in poverty declined from 2006 to 2007 but has increased each year since. By 2011, 15.9 percent of the population lived in poverty (Figure 1).

States ComparisonFigure 2 ranks the ten states with the highest 2011 poverty rates and how they changed since 2010. The average poverty rates for Utah and the United States are represented as horizontal lines.

Mississippi, where 22.4 percent of the population lived below the poverty line, had the highest poverty rate in 2011. The top ten poverty rankings do not fluctuate rapidly. Eight of the ten states with the highest proportions in 2011 also ranked in the top ten in 2010 and seven in 2009. Of the top ten states, only the District of Columbia’s poverty rate decreased from 2010 to 2011, and only four from all remaining states exhibited declining rates.

Poverty rates for 28 states were lower than the 15.9 percent United States average. The lowest was in New Hampshire, where the poverty rate was 8.8 percent. Utah’s poverty rate ranked 18 lowest in 2011, up one spot from 2010. While the state’s proportion of poverty increased from 13.2 to 13.5 percent, the growth that began in 2008 has slowed down.

The 2011 ACS estimates reveal that the nation’s share of people living in poverty increased from 2010 to 2011, continuing a trend that began at the onset of the recession in 2007. The effects of the recession on family incomes persist, even as recovery is underway.

The effects of the recession on

family incomes persist, even

as recovery is underway.

The Great RecessionIncreased Poverty Rates

Page 23: Trendlines, Spring 2013

jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 23

Figure 1: Poverty Rates in the United States and Utah, 2005–2011

Figure 2: Top Ten States with Highest Poverty Rates, 2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Recession

U.S. Poverty Rate

Utah Poverty Rate

2011 U.S. rate, 15.9%

2011 Utah rate, 13.5%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

Mississippi New Mexico

Louisiana Arkansas Kentucky Georgia Alabama Arizona SouthCarolina

District ofColumbia

2010 Poverty Rate Change from 2010 to 2011

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, National Bureau of Economic Research

Page 24: Trendlines, Spring 2013

24 Spring 2013

DWS news | by rick little, director, workforce research and analysis division

One in every six Utah children lives in poverty. The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that 16.2 percent of Utah’s children reside in homes

where parents earn less than the poverty thresholds defined for their respective household size. A recent study by the Department of Workforce Services (DWS) finds that one third of these children’s parents also lived in poverty when they were children, an example of intergenerational poverty.

The Intergenerational Poverty Report (see link on the facing page) describes how historical public assistance (PA) records used to track people over more than 20 years identified up to four generations of recipients. There were 35,778 children receiving PA between 1989 and 2008 who are now adults ages 21 to 40 receiving PA, representing 1 in every 24 Utahns of the same age group. The more impoverished a person is during childhood, the more likely that person is to receive PA as an adult. Also, the longer individuals experienced poverty as children, the longer they are likely to be in poverty as adults. The report further provides a look at 51,079 children who are the third generation since 1989.

Though startling, information from this study will help administrators tailor services to intergenerational recipients with the goal of breaking the cycle of poverty.

Breaking the Cycle:

The more impoverished a person is during childhood, the more likely that person is to receive public assistance as an adult.

Intergenerational Poverty in Utah

Adults on Assistance

1989 to 2008

Children on Assistance 1989 to 2008; Now Adults

on Assistance 2012

Children on Assistance 2012

Infants of Teens on Assistance 2012

Page 25: Trendlines, Spring 2013

The Intergenerational Poverty Report https://jobs.utah.gov/wi/pubs/Poverty_Report_web.pdf

jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 25

DWS news | by rick little, director, workforce research and analysis division

Intergenerational Attachment to Public Assistance

I n t e r g e n e r a t I o n a l

P o v e r t y I n U t a h 2 0 1 2

First Generation

Second Generation

Third Generation

Fourth Generation

Adults on Assistance

1989 to 2008

Children on Assistance 1989 to 2008; Now Adults

on Assistance 2012

Children on Assistance 2012

Infants of Teens on Assistance 2012

US Census Bureau, Small Area Income and Poverty Estimates, 2011

http://www.census.gov/did/www/saipe/data/interactive/#

Page 26: Trendlines, Spring 2013

26 Spring 2013

industry highlight | by melauni jensen, labor market information analyst

The Real Estate and Rental and Leasing industry is more than just selling and buying residential and commercial properties. Although that is the pri-

mary business activity, it also includes the rental, sale or lease of tangible assets, such as equipment, and intangi-ble assets, such as patents and trademarks.

A wide variety of businesses find themselves as part of this industry’s largest employers. Marriott Ownership Resorts is currently Utah’s largest employer in this industry. This company leases buildings used as residences or dwellings, and can include single-family homes, apartment buildings and town homes. The next ten largest employers include machinery and equipment rental, home health equipment rentals, passenger car rental, both non-residential and residential property management, non-residential building leasing and other related activities.

The Real Estate and Rental and Leasing industry was hit hard in Utah’s rural areas between 2007 and 2009 with 116 job losses. These losses are more significant in rural areas because total employment is relatively small.

The number of Utah establishments involved in real estate and leasing peaked during the first quarter of 2008 at 5,152. By 2011, that number declined to 4,263, but the industry posted its highest average monthly wage since 1996 at $3,141. State economists project the industry to be one of seven industries to have the fastest projected growth rate, although also the smallest projected jobs added between 2010 and 2020; however the jobs added are relatively few compared to other growth industries.

The industry subsector that includes residential and com-mercial property transfers plays an important role in our economy and directly affects nearly every other industry. It begins with purchasing land, perhaps building a structure (another related industry) and possibly selling, leasing or renting the land and structure. Not only does commercial real estate provide apartment buildings, but it contributes to the development of retail and office space as well. Weak-ening real estate sales generally lead to a decline in real estate prices, reducing the value of homes, land and build-ings. This can lead to depressed conditions in other indus-tries, as we’ve seen with the recent recession.

YearAverage Annual

EmploymentNumber of

EstablishmentsAnnual Payroll

Average Annual Wage

2011 16,536 4,326 $623,227,630 $155,806,908 2010 16,249 4,424 $579,262,126 $144,815,532 2009 16,655 4,657 $577,170,833 $144,292,708 2008 18,074 5,123 $630,441,503 $157,610,376 2007 18,492 5,163 $653,492,079 $163,373,020 2006 17,643 4,849 $589,093,784 $147,273,446 2005 16,435 4,191 $508,821,955 $127,205,489 2004 15,339 3,638 $432,943,431 $108,235,858 2003 15,061 3,252 $396,925,857 $99,231,464 2002 14,641 3,056 $382,297,157 $95,574,289 2001 14,158 2,883 $357,621,531 $89,405,383

Real Estate and Rental and Leasing, Utah

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

Real Estate and Rental & Leasing

Page 27: Trendlines, Spring 2013

Beaver 5.3%Box Elder 6.1 %Cache 4.1 %Carbon 7.0 %Daggett 5.3 %

Davis 4.8 %Duchesne 3.8 %Emery 7.4 %Garfield 10.2 %Grand 8.6 %

Iron 6.7 %Juab 5.9 %Kane 6.4 %Millard 4.6 %Morgan 4.6 %

Piute 5.6 %Rich 4.5 %Salt Lake 4.9 %San Juan 10.0 %Sanpete 7.1 %

Sevier 6.1 %Summit 5.0 %Tooele 5.7 %Uintah 4.0 %Utah 5.1 %

Wasatch 6.0 %Washington 6.2 %Wayne 13.1 %Weber 6.0 %

February 2013Seasonally Adjusted Unemployment Rates

Next Issue:Watch for these features in our

February 2013Unemployment Rates

Changes From Last Year

Utah Unemployment Rate 5.2% Down 0.7 pointsU.S. Unemployment Rate 8.1% Down 0.6 points

Utah Nonfarm Jobs (thousands) 1,267.9 Up 4.0%U.S. Nonfarm Jobs (thousands) 133,603.0 Up 1.5%

February 2013 Consumer Price Index RatesU.S. Consumer Price Index 232.2 Up 2.0%U.S. Producer Price Index 196.2 Up 1.7%

Source: Utah Department of Workforce Services

jobs.utah.gov/wi Trendlines 27

rate update | workforce information

justthe facts...

Theme:Occupations and Outlooks

Industry Highlight: Professional, Technical and Scientific Services

Occupation:Operations Research

Analysts

Page 28: Trendlines, Spring 2013

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