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Trend and Impact Analysis of Internal Displacement due to the Impacts of Disaster and Climate Change

Mar 03, 2016

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Trend and Impact Analysis of Internal Displacement due to the Impacts of Disaster and Climate Change
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  • Trend and Impact Analysis of Internal Displacement due to the Impacts of Disaster

    and Climate Change

    Sanjib Kumar Saha

    [email protected]

    Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP II)

  • Background

    Greatest single impact of climate change might be on human migration/displacement

    IPCC estimates 150 to 200 million people may be displaced by 2050 globally of which more than 20 million in Bangladesh

    It is essential to have appropriate strategy to address this emerging issue of displacement

    CDMP II took an initiative on in-depth assessment and analysis regarding the trends and impacts

    Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) conducted the study

  • Study Objectives

    Develop a database on internally displaced people, disaggregated by gender, age and other relevant characteristics (1981 2011).

    Analyze social, economic, environmental impacts of internal displacement on affected population & hosting communities

    Investigate the destinations of the internally displaced people and their conditions

    Prepare the trend of population displacement in terms of prevalence, incidence, and options (up to 2030 or beyond)

  • Methodology

    Multi-stage Random Sampling technique was selected for conducting the study

    Sample size for household survey in the place of origin was 816 HHs in nine districts & 25% of that for the place of origin (i.e. 204)

    Both quantitative and qualitative data was collected. Quantitative data was collected through conducting household survey

    Desk review, FGDs, face-to-face interviews, brainstorming/ consultative workshops and case studies

    The study was conducted in most hazard prone 9 districts, 14 upazilas

  • Methodology Study Sites

  • Results & Findings: Over all Situation

    Places State/category

    of displacement

    Households distribution in terms of selected disasters

    Total HHs % of

    HHs Floods Riverbank

    erosion

    Water

    logging Salinity

    Origin of

    Displacement

    Never

    displaced

    104

    (38%)

    2

    (1%)

    4

    (3%)

    7

    (4%) 117 13

    Temporarily

    displaced

    168

    (62%) -

    132

    (84%)

    129

    (82%) 429 46

    In between

    temporary &

    permanent

    - 270

    (79%) - - 270 29

    Subtotal of origin 272 272 136 136 816 -

    Destination

    of

    Displacement

    Permanently

    displaced

    1

    (0.4%)

    68

    (20%)

    20

    (13%)

    21

    (14%) 110 12

    Grand total 273 340 156 157 926 100

  • Results & Findings: Displacement due to Floods

    About 62% of HHs are displaced temporarily and only 0.4% were displaced permanently

    Affected people tended to be displaced to their neighbours and relatives houses, or nearby embankments, elevated roads, cyclone shelters and other structures

    Almost 52% male and 48% female were displaced either temporarily or permanently due to floods and among them about 15% are children, about 69% are adults and about 2% are the elderly

  • Results & Findings: Displacement due to River Erosion

    54% males and 46% female who were displaced due to riverbank erosion

    About 29% of riverbank erosion affected displaced populations are directly or indirectly engaged in agriculture

    In the case of riverbank erosion, all HHs were displaced due to push factors i.e. riverbank erosion eroded homestead and agricultural lands and they have no alternative options other than migration to new areas

  • Results & Findings: Displacement due to Salinity

    About 14% of HHs permanently displaced, 82% of HHs temporarily displaced

    Temporarily displaced households comprised those who were displaced due to a very severe cyclonic storm (namely SIDR in 2007) and a severe storm surge (namely AILA in 2009)

    In salinity ingress areas, there is a chronological history of adopting diverse occupations, agriculture was the dominant occupation in the study area

  • Results & Findings: Displacement due to Water Logging

    About 13% of HHs displaced permanently, about 84% of households were displaced temporarily and about 3% of households living there

    Found that 48% males and 52% female were displaced due to water logging among whom about 23% are children

    About 35% of affected displaced populations directly/indirectly engaged in agriculture among whom 15% are agricultural labourers

  • Spatial Distribution due to Flood: Origin and Destination

    The map delineates the spatial distribution of origin and destination. The green colour represents origin and the circle represents destination.

    Here, the places of destination are circled since displaced households are living in a scattered manner and cannot be identified within a definite administrative boundary

  • Results & Findings: Trend of Displacement

    About 11% were displaced in 1988, about 19% in 1998 and about 18% in 2004. In these years very severe floods had taken places

    Almost all of the households were displaced temporarily while only one household was displaced permanently

    Displacement due to salinity intrusion was intensive in the years 2007 and 2009. Two terrible natural disasters (SIDR in 2007 and AILA in 2009) occurred in those years.

    Both disasters destroyed a large number of small and large infrastructures including embankments, road networks, institutions etc. and eventually pushed saline water into the main land

  • Trend of Global Internal Displacement (Yonetani, 2012)

    The graph shows the displacement due to both geo physical and climate related disasters from 2008-2011

    According to a report from the Norwegian Refugee Councils Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, at least 42.3 million people were newly displaced by sudden-onset disasters caused by natural hazard events in 2010 (CICERO, 2011)

  • Impacts on Host Communities Increasing population density: The people in places of destination

    are concerned that the population density has increased in their areas

    Pressure on natural resources: The natural resources and the environment of the places of destination come under increasing pressure

    Sharing of social amenities: In places of destination, people have to share social amenities like ponds, tube-wells, latrines and disease outbreaks

    Competition in labor market: There exists surplus labor that eventually decreases wage rate and increases competition in the labor market

    Weakening of social bonding: Local people reported that social bonding has weakened among both displaced and host populations.

  • Limitations of the Study

    Lack of clear definition: No internationally recognised term that defines people who move for environmental reasons. Terms and concepts such as environmental migration, climate change-induced migration, ecological or environmental refugees, climate refugees

    Lack of statistics: There are no global statistics on migratory movements prompted by natural disasters. At best, there are estimates and indications that can be derived from displacement data relating to particular crises or other data on general trends

    The complexity of linking migration to environmental events: Some authors argue that environmental displacement is a complex and challenging issue not because the environmental impacts cannot be fully known

  • Conclusion/recommendations

    In Bangladesh, two action plans NAPA (2009) BCCSAP (2009). have indicated migration as an impact of environmental hazards

    Displacement owing to either natural or man-made (e.g climate change, socio-economic) reasons have a significant impact on people, their livelihoods, the surrounding environment and on the utilisation of resources

    In order to address the issue of displacement, 3 important considerations are: i) adoption of migration or displacement management strategies; ii) implementation of disaster management strategies; and iii) implementation of migration or displacement management strategies through developing a strong institutional basis

  • Thank You

    Find the report Trend and Impact Analysis of Internal Displacement due to the Impacts of Disaster and Climate Change at

    http://www.kmp.dmic.org.bd/handle/123456789/234