Trend and Impact Analysis of Internal Displacement due to the Impacts of Disaster
and Climate Change
Sanjib Kumar Saha
Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP II)
Background
Greatest single impact of climate change might be on human migration/displacement
IPCC estimates 150 to 200 million people may be displaced by 2050 globally of which more than 20 million in Bangladesh
It is essential to have appropriate strategy to address this emerging issue of displacement
CDMP II took an initiative on in-depth assessment and analysis regarding the trends and impacts
Center for Environmental and Geographic Information Services (CEGIS) conducted the study
Study Objectives
Develop a database on internally displaced people, disaggregated by gender, age and other relevant characteristics (1981 2011).
Analyze social, economic, environmental impacts of internal displacement on affected population & hosting communities
Investigate the destinations of the internally displaced people and their conditions
Prepare the trend of population displacement in terms of prevalence, incidence, and options (up to 2030 or beyond)
Methodology
Multi-stage Random Sampling technique was selected for conducting the study
Sample size for household survey in the place of origin was 816 HHs in nine districts & 25% of that for the place of origin (i.e. 204)
Both quantitative and qualitative data was collected. Quantitative data was collected through conducting household survey
Desk review, FGDs, face-to-face interviews, brainstorming/ consultative workshops and case studies
The study was conducted in most hazard prone 9 districts, 14 upazilas
Methodology Study Sites
Results & Findings: Over all Situation
Places State/category
of displacement
Households distribution in terms of selected disasters
Total HHs % of
HHs Floods Riverbank
erosion
Water
logging Salinity
Origin of
Displacement
Never
displaced
104
(38%)
2
(1%)
4
(3%)
7
(4%) 117 13
Temporarily
displaced
168
(62%) -
132
(84%)
129
(82%) 429 46
In between
temporary &
permanent
- 270
(79%) - - 270 29
Subtotal of origin 272 272 136 136 816 -
Destination
of
Displacement
Permanently
displaced
1
(0.4%)
68
(20%)
20
(13%)
21
(14%) 110 12
Grand total 273 340 156 157 926 100
Results & Findings: Displacement due to Floods
About 62% of HHs are displaced temporarily and only 0.4% were displaced permanently
Affected people tended to be displaced to their neighbours and relatives houses, or nearby embankments, elevated roads, cyclone shelters and other structures
Almost 52% male and 48% female were displaced either temporarily or permanently due to floods and among them about 15% are children, about 69% are adults and about 2% are the elderly
Results & Findings: Displacement due to River Erosion
54% males and 46% female who were displaced due to riverbank erosion
About 29% of riverbank erosion affected displaced populations are directly or indirectly engaged in agriculture
In the case of riverbank erosion, all HHs were displaced due to push factors i.e. riverbank erosion eroded homestead and agricultural lands and they have no alternative options other than migration to new areas
Results & Findings: Displacement due to Salinity
About 14% of HHs permanently displaced, 82% of HHs temporarily displaced
Temporarily displaced households comprised those who were displaced due to a very severe cyclonic storm (namely SIDR in 2007) and a severe storm surge (namely AILA in 2009)
In salinity ingress areas, there is a chronological history of adopting diverse occupations, agriculture was the dominant occupation in the study area
Results & Findings: Displacement due to Water Logging
About 13% of HHs displaced permanently, about 84% of households were displaced temporarily and about 3% of households living there
Found that 48% males and 52% female were displaced due to water logging among whom about 23% are children
About 35% of affected displaced populations directly/indirectly engaged in agriculture among whom 15% are agricultural labourers
Spatial Distribution due to Flood: Origin and Destination
The map delineates the spatial distribution of origin and destination. The green colour represents origin and the circle represents destination.
Here, the places of destination are circled since displaced households are living in a scattered manner and cannot be identified within a definite administrative boundary
Results & Findings: Trend of Displacement
About 11% were displaced in 1988, about 19% in 1998 and about 18% in 2004. In these years very severe floods had taken places
Almost all of the households were displaced temporarily while only one household was displaced permanently
Displacement due to salinity intrusion was intensive in the years 2007 and 2009. Two terrible natural disasters (SIDR in 2007 and AILA in 2009) occurred in those years.
Both disasters destroyed a large number of small and large infrastructures including embankments, road networks, institutions etc. and eventually pushed saline water into the main land
Trend of Global Internal Displacement (Yonetani, 2012)
The graph shows the displacement due to both geo physical and climate related disasters from 2008-2011
According to a report from the Norwegian Refugee Councils Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, at least 42.3 million people were newly displaced by sudden-onset disasters caused by natural hazard events in 2010 (CICERO, 2011)
Impacts on Host Communities Increasing population density: The people in places of destination
are concerned that the population density has increased in their areas
Pressure on natural resources: The natural resources and the environment of the places of destination come under increasing pressure
Sharing of social amenities: In places of destination, people have to share social amenities like ponds, tube-wells, latrines and disease outbreaks
Competition in labor market: There exists surplus labor that eventually decreases wage rate and increases competition in the labor market
Weakening of social bonding: Local people reported that social bonding has weakened among both displaced and host populations.
Limitations of the Study
Lack of clear definition: No internationally recognised term that defines people who move for environmental reasons. Terms and concepts such as environmental migration, climate change-induced migration, ecological or environmental refugees, climate refugees
Lack of statistics: There are no global statistics on migratory movements prompted by natural disasters. At best, there are estimates and indications that can be derived from displacement data relating to particular crises or other data on general trends
The complexity of linking migration to environmental events: Some authors argue that environmental displacement is a complex and challenging issue not because the environmental impacts cannot be fully known
Conclusion/recommendations
In Bangladesh, two action plans NAPA (2009) BCCSAP (2009). have indicated migration as an impact of environmental hazards
Displacement owing to either natural or man-made (e.g climate change, socio-economic) reasons have a significant impact on people, their livelihoods, the surrounding environment and on the utilisation of resources
In order to address the issue of displacement, 3 important considerations are: i) adoption of migration or displacement management strategies; ii) implementation of disaster management strategies; and iii) implementation of migration or displacement management strategies through developing a strong institutional basis
Thank You
Find the report Trend and Impact Analysis of Internal Displacement due to the Impacts of Disaster and Climate Change at
http://www.kmp.dmic.org.bd/handle/123456789/234