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Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher – UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Research Center Colin Murphy Ph.D Deputy Director – UC Davis Policy Institute for Energy, Environment, and the Economy 28 January 2019
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Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Feb 02, 2020

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Page 1: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Transportation Fundamentals:

Electric Vehicles

Scott Hardman Ph.D.Postdoctoral Researcher – UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric Vehicle Research Center

Colin Murphy Ph.DDeputy Director – UC Davis Policy Institute for Energy, Environment, and the Economy

28 January 2019

Page 2: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Who We Are:

28 January 2019 2

National Center for Sustainable Transportation (NCST)

UC Pavement Research Center

Policy Institute for Energy, Environment

and the Economy

Transportation Technology & Policy

Energy Systems

Research CentersGraduate Degree Programs

Partner Programs

UC Institute of Transportation Studies

Plug-in Hybrid & Electric Vehicle

Research Center

Sustainable Transportation

Energy Pathways

China Center for Energy and

Transportation

3 Revolutions Future Mobility Center

Sustainable Freight Center

Energy Futures Program

Western Cooling Efficiency Center

California Lighting Technology Center

Center on Water-Energy Efficiency

Program on International Energy

Technologies

Page 3: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

PH&EV CenterResearchersDr. Gil Tal, PEV Markets, Travel Behavior Prof. Daniel Sperling, Institute of Transportation Studies DirectorDr. Tom Turrentine, World Market, supply and demand Dr. Ken Kurani, Consumer StudiesDr. Alan Jenn, PEV Regulations and Market ModelsDr. Angela Sanguinetti, Energy Feedback SystemsDr. Scott Hardman, Global Policy, Consumer adoptionDr. Jaehyun Lee, GIS and travel data analysisDr. Debapriya Chakraborty, Transportation economicsDr. Yan Xing, China Center and PH&EV CenterDr. Chris Nitta, Professor of Computer ScienceDr. Aria Berliner, New MobilityProf. David Rapson, UC Davis Economics Prof. Davis Bunch, UC Davis School of Management Program ManagerDahlia Garas5 Research Staff, programmers, visiting scholars

10 Graduate Students

12 Undergraduate Students280+ publications, 42 papers in 2017, 17+ under review

28 January 2019 3

Page 4: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Policy Institute

28 January 2019 4

Page 5: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Introduction

• Electric Vehicles & Batteries

• Current EV Market

• EV Incentives

• ZEV Regulation

• Environmental Impacts of EVs

• Costs of EVs

• Consumer Experience

Key Terms:

EV – Electric Vehicle – A vehicle which uses electricity from an external source for motive power.

Hybrid – A vehicle which uses electricity generated on-board the vehicle to supply some motive power.

ZEV – Zero-Emission Vehicle –Regulatory term meaning a vehicle which can drive at least part of the time with no air pollutant emissions. Includes electric vehicles, fuel cell vehicles and plug-in hybrids.

28 January 2019 5

Page 6: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Many Kinds of EV’s, Including Battery Electric and Plug-in Hybrid

Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs)

• Powered only by a battery

• Electric range 100-300 miles

• Price $30,000-100,000

Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs)

• Combination of gasoline and battery• Electric Range 12-50 miles, gas range

300 miles• Price $25,000-100,000

28 January 2019 6

Examples: Tesla’s, Chevy Bolt, Nissan Leaf, Hyndai Ioniq (Electric Version)

Examples: Toyota Prius Prime, Chevy Volt, Ford C-Max Energi, Hyundai Ioniq (Plug-in Hybrid Version), Chrysler Pacifica Hybrid

Page 7: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Fuel Cell Electric Vehicles

Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs)

• Driving range 300 miles

• Refueled by hydrogen at one of 39 stations in California (Approx. 20 more in development)

• Can only be leased, for around $500 per month including fuel

28 January 2019 7

Examples: Toyota Mirai, Honda Clarity FCV

Page 8: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

EV Model Availability

• 47 Models currently available:

• 15 BEV models

• 29 PHEV models

• 3 FCEVs

0

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Nu

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of

PEV

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de

ls f

or

sale

28 January 2019 8

EV Models, 2018

Page 9: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Batteries

• Key considerations: Energy and power.

• Energy is how far you can go, power is how fast you can accelerate

• Power measured in kilowatts (kW)• A normal household microwave is

rated at about 1 kW

• Capacity typically measured in kilowatt-hours (kWh)

• Your electrical bill is measured in kWh.

9

Page 10: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Charging

Charging Levels

• Level 1 (120 volt)• Power level of standard plugs• 4 miles of range per hour (1 kW)• Cost: $0-$1500

• Level 2 (240 volt)• Power level of dryer plugs• 12-32 miles of range per hour (3-8 kW)• Cost: $1,200-$3,000

• DC Fast• 60-200 miles per hour (50+ kW)• Cost: $50,000+

28 January 2019 10

Charging locations

• Home (level 1 or 2)• 75-85% of charging events

• Work (Level 1 or 2)• 15%-25% of charging events

• Public (Level 1, 2, or DC fast)• <10% of charging events

Page 11: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Market by vehicle type

0

50000

100000

150000

200000

250000

300000

350000

400000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

US Annual Sales

Total BEV Total PHEV Total FCEV

28 January 2019 11

Page 12: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

2018 market by automaker

28 January 2019 12

Tesla Model 3

Tesla Model X

Tesla Model SToyota Prius Gen-2 PHEV

Chevrolet Volt EREV

Honda Clarity PHEV

Chevrolet Bolt EV

Nissan Leaf EV

BMW 530e PHEV

Ford Fusion Energi PHEV

Chrysler Pacifica PHEVBMW i3 EV / EREV

BMW X5 PHEVMitsubishi Outlander PHEV

Kia Niro PHEVOther

Page 13: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Vehicle IncentivesPurchase Incentives

1. Federal Tax Credit, up to $7,500 per vehicle. Phases out once a manufacturer sells 200,000 vehicles (GM & Tesla have hit cap, Nissan will soon)

2. CA Clean Vehicle Rebate Program (CVRP) funded by cap-and-trade revenue. $2500 for BEV, $5000 for FCEV, $1500 for PHEV.

3. Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) purchase incentive under development.

4. Several smaller programs offered by CARB, local utilities, air districts; mostly funded by cap-and-trade.

Other Incentives

1. Most ZEVs are allowed to use carpool lanes for up to 3 years.

2. Low Carbon Fuel Standard gives significant incentive for EV charging.

3. Some free/discounted parking incentives.

28 January 2019 13

Page 14: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Importance of Incentives

• CVRP and federal tax credit is the most important incentive.

• HOV lane access is the second most important incentives.

• Incentives are getting more important over time.

• As EVs get cheaper, more people are potentially in the market and 1000’s of dollars are a larger fraction of the purchaser’s budget.

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Page 15: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Incentives should not be removed early

28 January 2019 15

0

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2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Netherlands PHEV Sales

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Denmark BEV Sales

-

0.50

1.00

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2.00

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3.00

3.50

Q12013

Q22013

Q32013

Q42013

Q12014

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Q32014

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Q12015

Q22015

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Q22016

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Q22017

BEV

Mar

ket

Shar

e (%

)

Georgia BEV Sales

Page 16: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Infrastructure and Charging Incentives

• CPUC authorized over $700 million in charger installation in PG&E, SCE, SDG&E territory, mostly aimed at commercial vehicles, but several residential pilot projects.

• VW settlement funds used, in part, to support charger deployment

• Utilities have deployed local programs for charger installation, funded by rate-base, LCFS credit revenue or state incentives.

• LCFS adopted new provision to support deployment of DC FAST chargers, will likely result in several thousand installations.

28 January 2019 16

Page 17: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

ZEV Program

• Introduced in 1990, now in 10 states, soon 11 (Colorado).

• Goal is technology development and commercialisation

• Credit requirement is a percentage of total vehicle sales

• 7% in 2019• 9.5% in 2020• 7-12% by 2025

28 January 2019 17

For example if the mandate is 5%

Page 18: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Why Are EV’s More Efficient Than Internal Combustion?

Fuel

Exhaust Heat

Radiator Heat

FrictionPumping

Losses

Engine Output

Transmission

Accessories

Vehicle Motion

Typically, about 20-25% of fuel energy becomes motion

Page 19: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Transmission

Exhaust Heat

Radiator

Less Heat, Less Wasted Energy

Fuel FrictionPumping

Losses

Engine Output

Transmission

Accessories

Vehicle Motion

60-70% of fuel energy becomes motion.

Exhaust Heat

Radiator Heat

Engine Output Vehicle

Motion

Regenerative Braking

Page 20: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

EV Emissions Are Affected by the Grid

28 January 2019 20

• Cleaner grid = lower net emissions.• Even on fairly dirty (coal-dominated)

grid, EVs are usually no worse than a comparable car.

• As the grid gets cleaner, the emissions from EVs will decrease.

• Total EV load is likely to be relatively small. A 100% EV fleet would likely increase electricity demand by 20-30%

Jenn et al. 2018

Page 21: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

EVs purchase price is not changing yet….

28 January 2019 21

Page 22: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

…but EV technology and range is improving

28 January 2019 22

0

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30

40

50

60

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Sale

s-w

eig

hte

d a

vera

ge b

atte

ry s

ize

(k

Wh

)

Year

EV PHEV

Page 23: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Battery Prices Keep Falling

28 January 2019 23

Ambrose 2019

2018, $93

2018, $231

$0$50

$100$150$200$250$300$350$400$450

2011 2018 2025 2032 2039 2046

Pack

Pri

ce $

/kW

h

Whole Industry (Lowest Pack Price) Performance EVs (Market Leaders)

Page 24: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Consumer Experience

28 January 2019 24

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Jun-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Feb-17 Jun-17

All-car owning

households

New Car

Buyers

All-car owning

households

Name a BEV

Yes: Right (Other)

Yes: Right (Tesla, any)

Yes: Right (Nissan Leaf)

Yes: Maybe

Yes: Wrong

No

Consumer engagement/knowledge/awareness of PEVs had not changed since 2014

Page 25: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

Summary

• EVs are an ever-growing role in transportation

• There range of models is increasing rapidly

• Battery costs are falling rapidly

• While many models are still aimed at the higher end of the market, more affordable options are deploying rapidly

• EVs have strongly penetrated among some demographics, but most people still can’t correctly name one model

• EVs offer significant emissions benefits compared to conventional vehicles, under almost every circumstance

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Page 26: Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles · Transportation Fundamentals: Electric Vehicles Scott Hardman Ph.D. Postdoctoral Researcher –UC Davis Plug-In Hybrid & Electric

We Are Happy to Answer Questions!

Scott Hardman Ph.D.

[email protected]

phev.ucdavis.edu

Colin Murphy Ph.D.

[email protected]

policyinstitute.ucdavis.edu

Twitter: @scianalysis

28 January 2019 26

The Policy Institute now offers rapid response policy analysis – contact [email protected]

To receive updates regarding the Institute of Transportation Studies research, policy briefs and related work, sign up on our listserv via this link: its.ucdavis.edu/join-our-mailing-list/.