Transport Futures

Eur Ing Peter Loftus CEng MIMechE

Transport Futures

Transport Futures

ldquoThe world did not emerge from the Stone Age because we ran out of stones It wont emerge from the Oil Age because we run out of oil

Don Huberts Shell Hydrogen

Issuesbull Reduce carbon emissionsbull Security of Supplybull Alternative supplies and Technologies

Oil Prices$40 barrel - 1 June 2004

European progressing towards 140 gkm CO2in 2008bull But latest (2002) figures show progress stalling at c165 gkm bull Past gains attributed to Diesel penetration (gt40 in 2002) and other technology improvements

Technology Overview

Powertrain Improvementsbull Remains the

most cost-effective way to reduce fossil-fuel CO2

bull Hybrids ndash two motor solution Electric and ICE

Carbon to Hydrogen RoadmapThe lsquomigration pathrsquo to a lowcarbon economy depends on power train developments whatever the fuel source

A partnership between Industry (market) and Government (legislation) will deliver on emissions without destroying the market and the manufacturers relations with their customers

bull A low risk migration path is necessary

bull Hybrid technology is the probable path but eventually fuel cells offer lowest emissions and efficiency

bull Hybrids will develop alongside competing technology packages

bull Early adopters will pay for some developments

Enabling TechnologiesClean Diesel engines

bull offer 25+ CO2 improvement over a conventional Gasoline down-sizing via advanced turbo charging technology offers perhaps 10-20 more improvement

bull Common rail diesels at present are the most efficient and with the lowest emissions

New Efficient Petrol technologies

ndash Can offer slightly less performance on CO2 emissions than diesel but very much more cost effectively Diesel engines for Euro 5 are projected to cost twice the equivalent output petrol

ndash Other markets have not gone diesel route We need low CO2 Options for these

ndash Petrol injection variable lift valves lean burn turbocharging etc

Efficient automated transmissions

bull can offer up to 5-8 CO2 reduction can enable down-sized engines to be more driveable and are attractive to customers on our more congested roads

Advanced control technology

bull 10487131048713allows the vehicle to operate as an integrated whole and ultimately be more efficient by knowing what lies ahead -via GPS map or telematics information

Types of Hybrid

Series Parallel

Mild Hybrid ndash Has smaller battery alwaysneeds the Prime Mover running All Hybridshave auto stopstart

Eventually hybrids offer best theoretical performance

Engine Down-sizing without Hybridisation

bull Turbocharging of Diesel or Petrol engines maintains output

bull Higher Efficiency lower weight lower friction produce lower CO2 emissions

bull Enabling technologies overcome turbo lag (better electronics twin turbo electrical boost)

bull 20 - 30 engine downsize gives 10 -15 fuel economy gain

Hybrids

Hybrid Migration path

bull Euro 3 Diesel 170 gkm (Well to wheel)bull 12v stop start 163 gkm (wtw)bull 42v mild hybrid plus dsizing 112 gkm bull Full Parallel Hybrid 93 gkm (wtw)bull Parallel Hybrid + Exh heat recovery 86

gkm (wtw)bull Parallel Hybrid + Aux Power Unit 81 gkmbull Fuel Cell Series Hybrid 74 gkm (wtw)

MG TF 200 HPDHybrid Sportscar

bull Delivers Extended Performance rather than extra economy

bull Extended Performance comes at no cost to Fuel Economy or Tailpipe Emissions

bull Battery provides superior acceleration and peak powertrain KW (200BHP)

Wheel to Wheel Performance (Today)

Wheel to Wheel Extended Analysis

Fuel Cell Components

Eur Ing Peter Loftus CEng MIMechEwwwrenewteesvalleycoukploftusrenewteesvalleycouk

Transport Futures